Issue 3—November 2007 Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad On the agenda this month: • Assembly Budget Blues The Assembly Government’s draft budget receives sharp criticism • Welsh Liberal Democrats Leadership • Mike German decides to stay on – for now at least • Public or Private? A fresh perspective on the roles of public and private organisations ALL‐WALES CONVENTION ON FURTHER POWERS FOR THE ASSEMBLY One Wales promised to establish an ‘all‐Wales convention’ to prepare for a referendum on fur‐ ther powers for the Assembly, for which both parties pledged to campaign for a ‘yes’ vote. The recent budget announcement included £2.5m over three years for the convention’s refer‐ endum preparation and an independent commission on Assembly funding and finance. The conventionʹs Chair will be Sir Emyr Jones Parry, a former British Ambassador to the United Nations. A group of AMs and MPs from Labour and Plaid will be commissioned to set Sir Emyr Jones Parry the terms of reference and membership of the convention, based on wide representation from © UN, speaking in his civil society. The First Minister, Rhodri Morgan, said it must not consist of ‘anoraks talking to former role at for the United anoraks’. A referendum is widely expected to be held in 2011. The creation of the convention Nations mirrors a similar institution operating in Scotland in the 1990s in the run‐up to the creation of its devolved Parliament. Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a joint initiative between Grayling and the Institute of Welsh Affairs, bringing you the ABC of Welsh politics every month. We would be pleased to hear your feed‐ back: Institute of Welsh Affairs Grayling 1‐3 Museum Place 2 Caspian Point Cardiff, CF10 3BD Cardiff Bay, CF10 4DQ Tel: 029 2066 6606 Tel: 029 2046 2507 www.iwa.org.uk www.grayling.com Issue 3—November 2007 BUDGET BLUES...ORARTICLE A 1 FAIR DEAL? Grayling Political Strategy fording its various manifesto pledges. On 5 November the Assembly Government Finance Predictably, the opposition parties were quick to criti‐ Minister, Andrew Davies, unveiled the Assembly’s cise it. The Conservatives said that this budget draft budget for 2008‐2009. As expected, it was the marked an abrupt end to the Assembly Government’s tightest financial settlement for Wales since devolu‐ ‘reckless eight‐year spending spree’, while the Liberal tion, as October’s announcement of the Comprehen‐ Democrats agreed that it would lead to cuts in ser‐ sive Spending Review by Chancellor Alistair Darling vices and rising levels of council tax to fund local had more or less guaranteed. Public services in Wales government financial shortfalls. The Lib Dems in par‐ will see a 1.8% rise in their budgets over the next ticular accused the Finance Minister of trying to pass three years, with Mr Davies calling for a ‘bonfire of the blame on to local authorities, who would be inefficiency’ in order for local government in particu‐ forced to cut services and raise taxes in an election lar to balance the books. year, endangering councillors’ seats. As expected, education and health get more funding, Mr Davies, however, was defiant, saying he was de‐ but the Welsh Local Government Association has termined to get a ‘bigger bang for our buck’ in deliv‐ complained that the ‘derisory’ settlement for councils ering public services in Wales. The budget provided will potentially mean a cut in frontline services and the country with ‘£3.64billion of new investment’, he rises in council tax rather than efficiency savings. The said, but that would have to be accompanied by de‐ total draft budget amounts to £14.8bn ‐ not far from livering ‘value for the Welsh pound in all areas’ and double the Assembly’s original budget in 1999‐2000. getting rid of ‘duplication and red tape’. Individual A ‘strategic capital investment fund’ will also be set Ministers, he added, would be primarily responsible aside to finance large projects, with Assembly Gov‐ for allocating the budget within their portfolios. This ernment departments having to compete for alloca‐ did not assuage the Opposition and the WLGA, who tions from the spending pot. called it ‘an appalling result for council tax payers’. This draft budget was seen as the first litmus test of Given the size of the Labour‐Plaid coalition’s working the Labour‐Plaid coalition government, with some in majority (twenty‐one seats), the budget is likely to the press speculating that Plaid have accepted a pass. However, it remains to be seen how popular it tough settlement through gritted teeth as the price of will make the Assembly Government and how it will staying in power. Several key One Wales pledges, affect the coalition’s stability. This will be especially such as pensioner council tax relief and laptops for true if future allocations from the Treasury are even eleven‐year‐olds, have been deferred until later years, tighter. Plaid are unlikely to take kindly to what they while only a small amount has been allocated to assist see as Westminster financially restricting Wales’ first‐time home‐buyers. Mr Davies reminded AMs room for manoeuvre. Will the One Wales coalition, that this was a budget for a ‘four‐year programme’ to therefore, be able to resist such internal pressures, as deliver One Wales, in an effort to deflect criticism that well as outside criticism from political opponents and the coalition government was having difficulty af‐ pressure groups? UPCOMING EVENTS—Contact the IWA for further information or to book North‐South links: IWA West Wales branch ‘The Heads of the The Stern Report and the Establishing integrated dinner, with Rt Hon Valleys Experience’ Challenge for Wales communication links Rhodri Morgan AM between north and south Wales Friday, 18 January 2008 Friday, 18 January 2008 Thursday, 7 February 2008 Thursday 28 February 2008 9.00am 7:30pm 9.00am 9.00am St George’s Hotel, Llandudno Halliwell Centre, Trinity ViTCC, Tredegar Holiday Inn, College, Carmarthen Cardiff (Castle Street) Issue 3—November 2007 WELSH LIB DEMS SETTLE THEARTICLE LEADERSHIP 1 QUESTION...FOR NOW Grayling Political Strategy the Assembly. If Mr German were to be elected to this role too, he would be the party’s leader in Wales. In the event, he was elected, once again unopposed. So, it is now confirmed that Mr German will be the Welsh party’s one leader until May 2008. The Lib Dems face a challenging local government election campaign, where they will be defending leadership of key councils such as Bridgend, Cardiff, Swansea and Wrexham. If, as expected, the party lose council seats in Wales, then Mr German will almost certainly stand down. His successor, who will from now on take on the dual role of Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democ‐ rats and Assembly group leader, will then have three years before the next Assembly election. Mr Black has already ruled himself out on his blog, although he does leave the door slightly ajar by say‐ ing ‘things can and do change’. Brecon and Radnor‐ shire AM, Kirsty Williams (bottom left), is thought to be the long‐term favourite of the party membership, The issue of leadership of the Welsh Liberal Democ‐ as well as political commentators. She recently gave a rats has now formally been settled. Speculation had speech in Aberystwyth calling for the party to offer a been rife, following the party’s relatively poor Assem‐ radical, liberal alternative to the ‘gloopy grey consen‐ bly election results in May, that current leader, Mike sus’ of the ‘Cardiff Bay bubble’, in what many will German (pictured top‐left), would stand down. This surely see as setting out her stall for a future bid. Oth‐ speculation only intensified after a number of the ers, however, believe that Cardiff Central AM, Jenny party’s AMs openly admitted that there was division Randerson (bottom right), is a better bet; she is a close in the party with one, South Wales West AM Peter political ally of Mr German and many believe she Black (pictured top‐right), writing on his blog that it would be a good interim leader until 2011, when Ms was time for a change of direction within the party. Williams will be sufficiently experienced to take over. Under the Welsh party’s internal rules, a leadership Outspoken North Wales AM, Eleanor Burnham, is an contest has to be held within one year of an Assembly outside bet. election, so Mr German had until May of next year to make up his mind. How the eventual change in leadership changes the dynamics of power in the Assembly will be interest‐ At their annual autumn conference in Aberystwyth, ing. It is widely believed that Labour rejected a Mr German announced that he would be standing chance to form another coalition with the Lib Dems again, but that if re‐elected he would step down next following May’s elections as they thought the Lib year, probably after May’s local government elec‐ Dems were too small in number, divided and under tions. The party seemed to endorse this view, as Mr weak leadership. If a new leader can unite the group German stood unopposed and was duly re‐elected to and give it a new sense of momentum, however, it the party’s Assembly leadership, despite some minor has two implications. Firstly, the party could go into but vocal opposition from Mr Black. What was a big‐ the 2011 Assembly elections with renewed (and this ger surprise, however, was the decision by Montgom‐ time justified) confidence. Secondly, if Plaid Cymru eryshire MP, Lembit Opik, to relinquish his role as decide to opt out of the ‘One Wales’ agreement for leader of the whole Welsh party.