Issue 3—November 2007 Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad

On the agenda this month: • Assembly Budget Blues The Assembly Government’s draft budget receives sharp criticism • Leadership • Mike German decides to stay on – for now at least • Public or Private? A fresh perspective on the roles of public and private organisations

ALL‐WALES CONVENTION ON FURTHER POWERS FOR THE ASSEMBLY

One Wales promised to establish an ‘all‐Wales convention’ to prepare for a referendum on fur‐ ther powers for the Assembly, for which both parties pledged to campaign for a ‘yes’ vote. The recent budget announcement included £2.5m over three years for the convention’s refer‐ endum preparation and an independent commission on Assembly funding and finance.

The conventionʹs Chair will be Sir Emyr Jones Parry, a former British Ambassador to the United Nations. A group of AMs and MPs from Labour and Plaid will be commissioned to set Sir Emyr Jones Parry the terms of reference and membership of the convention, based on wide representation from © UN, speaking in his civil society. The First Minister, Rhodri Morgan, said it must not consist of ‘anoraks talking to former role at for the United anoraks’. A referendum is widely expected to be held in 2011. The creation of the convention Nations mirrors a similar institution operating in Scotland in the 1990s in the run‐up to the creation of its devolved Parliament.

Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a joint initiative between Grayling and the Institute of Welsh Affairs, bringing you the ABC of Welsh politics every month. We would be pleased to hear your feed‐ back:

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Issue 3—November 2007

BUDGET BLUES...ORARTICLE A 1 FAIR DEAL?

Grayling Political Strategy fording its various manifesto pledges.

On 5 November the Assembly Government Finance Predictably, the opposition parties were quick to criti‐ Minister, Andrew Davies, unveiled the Assembly’s cise it. The Conservatives said that this budget draft budget for 2008‐2009. As expected, it was the marked an abrupt end to the Assembly Government’s tightest financial settlement for Wales since devolu‐ ‘reckless eight‐year spending spree’, while the Liberal tion, as October’s announcement of the Comprehen‐ Democrats agreed that it would lead to cuts in ser‐ sive Spending Review by Chancellor Alistair Darling vices and rising levels of council tax to fund local had more or less guaranteed. Public services in Wales government financial shortfalls. The Lib Dems in par‐ will see a 1.8% rise in their budgets over the next ticular accused the Finance Minister of trying to pass three years, with Mr Davies calling for a ‘bonfire of the blame on to local authorities, who would be inefficiency’ in order for local government in particu‐ forced to cut services and raise taxes in an election lar to balance the books. year, endangering councillors’ seats.

As expected, education and health get more funding, Mr Davies, however, was defiant, saying he was de‐ but the Welsh Local Government Association has termined to get a ‘bigger bang for our buck’ in deliv‐ complained that the ‘derisory’ settlement for councils ering public services in Wales. The budget provided will potentially mean a cut in frontline services and the country with ‘£3.64billion of new investment’, he rises in council tax rather than efficiency savings. The said, but that would have to be accompanied by de‐ total draft budget amounts to £14.8bn ‐ not far from livering ‘value for the Welsh pound in all areas’ and double the Assembly’s original budget in 1999‐2000. getting rid of ‘duplication and red tape’. Individual A ‘strategic capital investment fund’ will also be set Ministers, he added, would be primarily responsible aside to finance large projects, with Assembly Gov‐ for allocating the budget within their portfolios. This ernment departments having to compete for alloca‐ did not assuage the Opposition and the WLGA, who tions from the spending pot. called it ‘an appalling result for council tax payers’.

This draft budget was seen as the first litmus test of Given the size of the Labour‐Plaid coalition’s working the Labour‐Plaid coalition government, with some in majority (twenty‐one seats), the budget is likely to the press speculating that Plaid have accepted a pass. However, it remains to be seen how popular it tough settlement through gritted teeth as the price of will make the Assembly Government and how it will staying in power. Several key One Wales pledges, affect the coalition’s stability. This will be especially such as pensioner council tax relief and laptops for true if future allocations from the Treasury are even eleven‐year‐olds, have been deferred until later years, tighter. Plaid are unlikely to take kindly to what they while only a small amount has been allocated to assist see as Westminster financially restricting Wales’ first‐time home‐buyers. Mr Davies reminded AMs room for manoeuvre. Will the One Wales coalition, that this was a budget for a ‘four‐year programme’ to therefore, be able to resist such internal pressures, as deliver One Wales, in an effort to deflect criticism that well as outside criticism from political opponents and the coalition government was having difficulty af‐ pressure groups?

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Issue 3—November 2007

WELSH LIB DEMS SETTLE THEARTICLE LEADERSHIP 1 QUESTION...FOR NOW

Grayling Political Strategy the Assembly. If Mr German were to be elected to this role too, he would be the party’s leader in Wales. In the event, he was elected, once again unopposed.

So, it is now confirmed that Mr German will be the Welsh party’s one leader until May 2008. The Lib Dems face a challenging local government election campaign, where they will be defending leadership of key councils such as Bridgend, Cardiff, Swansea and Wrexham. If, as expected, the party lose council seats in Wales, then Mr German will almost certainly stand down. His successor, who will from now on take on the dual role of Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democ‐ rats and Assembly group leader, will then have three years before the next Assembly election.

Mr Black has already ruled himself out on his blog, although he does leave the door slightly ajar by say‐ ing ‘things can and do change’. Brecon and Radnor‐ shire AM, (bottom left), is thought to be the long‐term favourite of the party membership, The issue of leadership of the Welsh Liberal Democ‐ as well as political commentators. She recently gave a rats has now formally been settled. Speculation had speech in Aberystwyth calling for the party to offer a been rife, following the party’s relatively poor Assem‐ radical, liberal alternative to the ‘gloopy grey consen‐ bly election results in May, that current leader, Mike sus’ of the ‘Cardiff Bay bubble’, in what many will German (pictured top‐left), would stand down. This surely see as setting out her stall for a future bid. Oth‐ speculation only intensified after a number of the ers, however, believe that Cardiff Central AM, Jenny party’s AMs openly admitted that there was division Randerson (bottom right), is a better bet; she is a close in the party with one, South Wales West AM Peter political ally of Mr German and many believe she Black (pictured top‐right), writing on his blog that it would be a good interim leader until 2011, when Ms was time for a change of direction within the party. Williams will be sufficiently experienced to take over. Under the Welsh party’s internal rules, a leadership Outspoken North Wales AM, Eleanor Burnham, is an contest has to be held within one year of an Assembly outside bet. election, so Mr German had until May of next year to make up his mind. How the eventual change in leadership changes the dynamics of power in the Assembly will be interest‐ At their annual autumn conference in Aberystwyth, ing. It is widely believed that Labour rejected a Mr German announced that he would be standing chance to form another coalition with the Lib Dems again, but that if re‐elected he would step down next following May’s elections as they thought the Lib year, probably after May’s local government elec‐ Dems were too small in number, divided and under tions. The party seemed to endorse this view, as Mr weak leadership. If a new leader can unite the group German stood unopposed and was duly re‐elected to and give it a new sense of momentum, however, it the party’s Assembly leadership, despite some minor has two implications. Firstly, the party could go into but vocal opposition from Mr Black. What was a big‐ the 2011 Assembly elections with renewed (and this ger surprise, however, was the decision by Montgom‐ time justified) confidence. Secondly, if eryshire MP, Lembit Opik, to relinquish his role as decide to opt out of the ‘One Wales’ agreement for leader of the whole Welsh party. Mr Opik, a colourful whatever reason, Labour may cast fresh glances over politician who has courted much media attention in to the Lib Dem benches. Then again, a ‘rainbow coali‐ recent months due to his love life, argued that it was tion’ ‐ between Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and Con‐ best this role was also held by the party’s leader in servatives—could once more be on the cards… Issue 3—November 2007

PUBLICARTICLE OR PRIVATE? 1

Nick Morris, Institute of Welsh Affairs and controlled health services but why should this be an aim in itself? Public ownership is merely a method Two interesting statements are found together in One to reach the aim of good health service delivery. Wales, the Labour‐Plaid coalition government docu‐ ment. To meet the needs of public health the docu‐ A combination of factors means that the Assembly ment promises to put “democratic engagement at the naturally leans towards the public sector. It spends heart of the NHS”. This is followed by a clear guaran‐ the majority of time and a great deal of money inter‐ tee that the Welsh NHS will be owned, funded and acting with public sector organisations. Many bodies controlled publicly. The question that must follow, in Wales are reliant on the state and are not well however, is whether the people of Wales really want placed, or in most cases eager, to argue for alternative a fully public NHS as much as the authors of One approaches. By definition the public sector is Wales‐ Wales. They might only be concerned about the qual‐ based and Wales‐focused. Businesses, by contrast, ity of the services they receive, regardless of delivery. can reach beyond Wales and generate wealth, jobs If this is the case, their democratic engagement about and drive economic growth in Wales. The business the future of the Welsh NHS would suggest against voice needs to be expressed more strongly and heard such a strong commitment. across a range of issues offering alternatives to the underlying assumption that solutions are found only Meaningful decisions in a variety of fields can be in the public sector. The Assembly Government made in the Senedd, especially now the Welsh As‐ wishes to raise the profile of Wales in the world. sembly is a legislating body – owing to the Govern‐ What better way to do this than to cultivate a private ment of Wales Act 2006. There has never been as op‐ sector that can form Welsh brands to take to the rest portune a time to have debates about the fundamen‐ of the UK and beyond? tals of major areas, such as health. A major threat to Assembly processes, and to any democratic system, is Within Wales there needs to be much greater contact that individuals do not engage themselves. The vari‐ between the Assembly and businesses. Few of the ety of viewpoints and ideas individuals and organisa‐ current Assembly Members (AMs) come from busi‐ tions can offer is then lost. In the May 2007 election ness backgrounds. The onus is on businesses, there‐ fewer than half of the electorate voted. Those who did fore, to encourage more of its members to seek elec‐ not vote might be completely satisfied with current tion and/or to pick up the phone and make their case arrangements. Perhaps, though, they are ignorant of to AMs and committees directly or through represen‐ the Assembly’s authority or apathetic about change. tative bodies, such as the CBI and FSB in Wales. In health, there is evidently some mistrust on both sides. This situation must be partly caused by the strong Negative perceptions abound; the public sector is attachment to the notion of consensus in Wales. There sometimes seen as inefficient and overly‐bureaucratic is the perception that the ideological battles of the and the private sector as a heartless money‐making 20th century between left and right brought conflict, machine. There needs to be, therefore, understanding, whereas widespread agreement brings progress. Of a situation where organisations and individuals can course, agreement, especially about aims is to be wel‐ have mature debates about approaches and the As‐ comed. Modern public services were founded on the sembly can choose to legislate (or not). consensus forged in the Second World War but these common aims were shared in public life for a long Businesses must realise that the Assembly and politi‐ period before that. We can agree that we wish to have cal processes are not necessarily an imposition but an good services, responsible freedom, equality and op‐ opportunity to create an economic climate more suit‐ portunities. able to them in Wales. Engagement is a two‐way process: the Assembly must listen and respond but it The real problem arises not in agreement of aims but cannot listen if individuals and private organisations when the political methods and ideas we have to are not speaking to it. reach these aims converge. In the Assembly at present the majority of members would probably agree with What do you think? Email [email protected] to the commitment to maintain publicly funded, owned contact IWA and engage in the debate.