Losing time for the tiger Panthera tigris: delayed action puts a globally threatened species at risk of local extinction A BISHEK H ARIHAR,MOUSUMI G HOSH-HARIHAR and D OUGLAS C. MACM ILLAN Abstract Meeting global and regional environmental tar- Introduction gets is challenging, given the multiplicity of stakeholders and their diverse and often competing policy agendas and uccessful environmental interventions are often charac- objectives. Relatively few studies have sought to systematic- Sterized by having clearly defined objectives within a sim- ally analyse the progress, or lack thereof, of institutionally ple institutional framework, such as small-scale woodland complex and diffuse projects. Here we analyse one such pro- creation (e.g. Crabtree et al., ; MacMillan et al., ). ject, which aims to protect and restore a critical landscape Success stories tend to be relatively straightforward in corridor for tigers Panthera tigris in north-western India, terms of institutional design and decision-making structure, using a temporal–analytic framework that integrates eco- and are often easy to monitor and assess in terms of their logical information on species population status and spatial expenditure and the attainment of objectives. Larger scale connectivity modelling with a systematic examination of the projects that cross national boundaries or involve a diversity decision-making process. We find that even with adequate of stakeholders, such as global wildlife trade bans (Ross, ecological knowledge the tiger population is on the verge of ) or climate change initiatives such as reduced emis- local extinction because of weak institutional support, poor sions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), adaptive planning and ineffective leadership in a complex are politically and institutionally more complex and diffuse political arena, which has led to delays in conservation and are prone to failure or stagnation. action. From the outset the conservation agencies and There is now considerable interest in reviewing institu- NGOs that were the primary drivers of the project lacked tionally complex projects to identify general shortcomings awareness of the political idiosyncrasies of coordinating and recommendations for better practices (Balmford & the actions of disparate agencies within the decision-making Cowling, ; Manolis et al., ; Black et al., ; process. To secure better future environmental outcomes we Martin et al., ), and it is recognized that factors such recommend the adoption of an improved project appraisal as strong institutional support, stakeholder buy-in, and methodology that explicitly encompasses an evaluation of effective leadership are critical to their success (Clark organizational incentives, to determine political buy-in, et al., ; Salafsky et al., ). Furthermore, it has been including alignment with organizational objectives and argued that overt and subtle political considerations can funding availability. often trump robust scientific evidence in multi-actor and multistage decision making in the conservation arena Keywords Chilla–Motichur, conservation recommenda- (Kørnøv & Thissen, ). tions, corridor connectivity, decision process, implementa- We use an innovative temporal–analytic framework that tion, India, multi-stakeholder, western Terai Arc Landscape integrates spatial connectivity modelling and a systematic Supplementary material for this article can be found at approach to decision analysis to investigate the institutional https://doi.org/./S failures that may lead to the imminent local extinction of a tiger Panthera tigris population in the western Terai Arc Landscape of India, a globally important Tiger Conservation Landscape (Sanderson et al., ). Tiger conservation is increasingly seen as a global project, with pan-national collaboration anticipated to double tiger num- ABISHEK HARIHAR* (Corresponding author) and DOUGLAS C. MACMILLAN Durrell bers by under the Global Tiger Recovery Program, and Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and we aim to inform the international community about the Conservation, University of Kent, Kent, CT2 7NZ, UK E-mail [email protected], [email protected] challenges such initiatives will face. In this case study we focus on the failure to restore the MOUSUMI GHOSH-HARIHAR Independent Researcher, Bangalore, Karnataka, India Chilla–Motichur wildlife corridor, which has deteriorated *Also at: Panthera, New York, USA, and Nature Conservation Foundation, Mysore, Karnataka, India over the years to the point where, in the western section of Received February . Revision requested April . the landscape, the tiger population has declined to two Accepted July . First published online November . female tigers and is no longer viable (Harihar & Pandav, Oryx, 2018, 52(1), 78–88 © 2017 Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605317001156 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 167.98.22.132, on 22 Feb 2018 at 10:26:03, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605317001156 Tiger at risk of local extinction 79 ). To identify the socio-political factors that imperil this () We compared an index of tiger sign detections along population, we present evidence to demonstrate the decline raus (dry stream beds), based on data from – in tigers and connectivity across the corridor, we review the (S.P. Goyal & A.J.T. Johnsingh, unpubl. data; B. Pandav & recommendations provided over the years to mitigate loss in A. Harihar, unpubl. data), as they were the only comparable connectivity, and we analyse the decision process involved data spanning years. () We compiled available estimates in implementing these recommendations. We highlight of tiger density since . the lessons learnt from this exercise, to guide conservation To assess changes in tiger occupancy in the western Terai initiatives aiming to recover tiger populations or similarly Arc Landscape over years, between – (Johnsingh threatened species elsewhere. et al., ) and – (Harihar & Pandav, ), we compared the data using single-season occupancy models (MacKenzie et al., ). In surveys conducted during Study area – (Johnsingh et al., ), forest ranges were cho- sen as the basic sampling units, within multiple-use forest The western Terai Arc Landscape, in addition to supporting divisions and protected areas, and – sign surveys, with a one of the highest densities of tigers across its range, pre- mean length of km, were conducted along raus. In all, sents one of the best opportunities to significantly increase sign surveys, with a total survey effort of . km, were car- tiger populations in India, with an estimated population in- ried out across administrative units. During –, crease of % forecast under appropriate management surveys were conducted with greater intensity across the land- (Harihar et al., ). Spanning the Yamuna river in the scape, using more recent analytical approaches (Harihar & west to the Gola river in the east, the western Terai Arc Pandav, ). The survey routes used by Johnsingh et al. Landscape is now split into two disjunct units, referred to () were included so that comparable datasets could be as Tiger Habitat Blocks I and II (Johnsingh et al., ), compiled. with poor connectivity as a result of the deterioration of For the purpose of this comparative analysis we consid- the Chilla–Motichur corridor, which covers c. km along ered the forest divisions and protected areas as sampling the banks of the river Ganges between the Chilla (eastern sites’ and treated the independent sign surveys as sampling banks) and Motichur forest ranges (western banks) of occasions’. Although there has been considerable debate Rajaji Tiger Reserve (Fig. ). Identified in the early s about the substitution of spatial subunits for repeated tem- as a tenuous link for the movement of elephants Elephas poral sampling (Kendall & White, ; Guillera-Arroita, maximus (Saxena, ), it was also promoted as a critical ), we assumed that each survey route was independent corridor for tigers in subsequent years (Johnsingh, ). given their spatial configuration and the wide ranging be- The historical deterioration of connectivity across the haviour of tigers. We constructed eight models each for corridor may be traced to () the expansion of townships the – and – survey data, taking into ac- (Haridwar and Rishikesh), () the resettlement of people count the influence of Tiger Habitat Blocks (B), indices of displaced by the construction of the Tehri dam and evacuees wild prey (WildP), principal prey (PrincipP; chital Axis from landslide-prone areas into several new townships axis and sambar Cervus unicolor) and anthropogenic distur- (Khand Gaon I, II & III and Gangabhogpur), () the con- bances (Dist) under the single-season occupancy frame- struction of a hydropower canal on the eastern banks of work. Our objective was to assess the change in occupancy the Ganges, () the establishment of the Raiwala army can- across years and hence we examined differences in the tonment on the western banks of the Ganges, and () the estimates of the occupancy parameter (ψ) derived from construction of a National Highway and a railway line, the best-supported models. used by an estimated , motorized vehicles and c. Before systematic photographic capture–recapture sam- trains per day, respectively (Nandy et al., ; Rasaily, pling was used to assess the status of tigers in the western ). section of Rajaji Tiger