International Policy Analysis Internationale Politikanalyse International Policy Analysis Jan Niklas Engels & Gero Maaß (eds.) The View from Europe Analyses of the Crisis of Social Democracy after the 2009 German Federal Elections Can Social Democracy Survive? By Carl Tham, former Swedish Minister of Education and former Swedish Ambassador to Germany, Sweden. Modernise or Retrench? Dilemmas for Social Democracy in the Year of Electoral Disaster By Ferenc Gyurcsány, former Prime Minister of Hungary, Director of the Mihaly-Táncsics Foundation, Hungary. The SPD and the Debacle of the 2009 German Federal Elections: An Opportunity for Renewal By William Paterson, former Director of the Institute for German Studies at the University of Birmingham, Professor for German and European Politics at the University of Aston and James Sloam, Senior Lecturer in Politics und Co-Director of the Centre for European Politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, Britain. German Social Democracy after the 2009 Parliamentary Elections: A View from France By Jacques-Pierre Gougeon, Professor at the Institute for European Stud- ies of the University of Paris (Paris VIII)/Besançon, France. No Power, No Morale? A Dutch Commentary on the SPD Blues By René Cuperus, Director of International Relations, Wiardi Beckmann Foundation, The Netherlands. JANUARY 2010 International Policy Analysis 1 Content Foreword...............................................................................................................................................2 Can Social Democracy Survive?...........................................................................................................4 Modernise or Retrench: Key Dilemmas for Social Democracy in the Year of Electoral Disaster....8 The SPD and the Debacle of the 2009 German Federal Elections: An Opportunity for Renewal.12 German Social Democracy after the 2009 Parliamentary Elections: A View from France.............17 No Power, No Morale? A Dutch Comment on the SPD Blues .........................................................19 2 Jan Niklas Engels & Gero Maaß The View from Europe Foreword It must make use of the political latitude over its By Jan Niklas Engels and Gero Maaß rivals derived from political culture and the elec- toral system The outcome of the German federal elections on 27 Its track record must demonstrate skilfully im- September 2009 consolidated the five-party system plemented, concrete achievements that it can in Germany. Whereas the two mainstream govern- communicate well to the electorate (or while in ing parties, the CDU and the SPD, suffered major opposition it must be able to demonstrate the losses, the FDP, the Left Party and the Greens all governing party’s inability to do this) achieved results of over ten percent. The greatest It must be able to mobilise strategic partners – loser of the elections was the SPD, which succeeded above all the trade unions – to promote the so- in polling only 9,988,843 of the second votes (23 cial democratic cause percent), representing a loss over the 2005 election In the era of globalisation it must be able to of 6,205,822 votes or 11.2 percentage points. This embed national concerns in a European and in- means that since coming to office in 1998 the SPD ternational strategy. has lost 2,500 votes a day. It is not sufficient, however, just to be well posi- From a European perspective neither the frag- tioned in a few areas. The Swedish social democrats mentation of the party system nor the continuing after all lost the last election despite their socially decline in votes for the social democratic party are and economically successful record, and in a coun- unique phenomena. On the contrary, coalition try where the welfare state enjoys a broad social governments consisting of several parties tend to be consensus. More decisive for political success is a the rule rather than the exception in countries with party’s overall position – in other words, its narra- proportional representation, and it is not unusual tive, its leadership, its political latitude, its track for minor parties to hold seats in parliament. How- record, its partnerships and its European and global ever, whereas less than ten years ago social democ- strategy must fit together to form a complete pic- rat-led governments were in power in a clear major- ture. Currently, however, very few of Europe’s social ity of EU member-states, today, only eight of the democratic parties can claim to have such a posi- leaders of the now 27 member-states are social tion. democrats. In response to the generally decreasing ability of In the wake of the meltdown of financial capital- mainstream parties to retain voter loyalty and the ism and the resulting crisis of confidence, many particularly drastic decline in votes for European people expected the political coordinates in Europe social democracy, the International Policy Analysis to shift to the left. Yet in the European elections – Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has put together the first big test of the political mood in Europe a set of European contributions to the debate over following the outbreak of the crisis – there was the outcome of the German federal elections and its actually a move to the right. implications for German social democracy. The uncertainty resulting from these develop- We asked political analysts from France, Britain, ments means that if social democracy is once again the Netherlands, Sweden and Hungary who have to become a leading political force in Europe it has particular insights into social democracy in Germany a multitude of tasks to address: and in their own country to analyse the election It must forge a clear social democratic narrative result and the situation of the SPD following the that reflects the values and identities of the elections. We also asked them to outline the possi- party’s social base, while both its goals and the ble consequences of the election for European means to achieve them must be informed by the social democracy and for social democratic politics core principles of social justice and social cohe- in Europe. These five exciting analyses, each reflect- sion ing the author’s own national experience of politics, The party needs a credible and convincing politi- examine different aspects of the election outcome cal leadership supported by a lively and democ- and use these as a basis to make recommendations ratic party organisation – a leadership that is for the future development of social democracy. able to learn from previous terms in office and to renew itself while in office International Policy Analysis 3 Carl Tham, former Swedish Minister of Educa- like »the regulation of the financial markets, exit tion and former Swedish Ambassador to Germany, strategies after the crisis and financing the welfare looks at the SPD’s election »debacle« in a European state«. Citing the experience of France, Professor context and against the background of recent social Gougeon sees the SPD’s political setbacks as a change. Citing the experience of Sweden and Nor- chance for organisational renewal, to sharpen its way, Tham criticises a political approach oriented political profile and to engage in political confi- towards the middle classes and calls for a change of dence-building. strategy to encompass all sectors of society – a René Cuperus, Director for International Rela- strategy capable of convincing middle-earners that a tions of the Wiardi Beckmann Stiftung sees major welfare state that provides for its citizens, a strong parallels between the »catastrophic situation« of social and cultural infrastructure and greater income the SPD and that of the Dutch PvdA. He believes the equality are in their interests as well. chief problem of social democratic mainstream Ferenc Gyurcsány, former Prime Minister of parties lies in the fragmentation of left-wing voters Hungary and Director of the Mihaly-Táncsics Foun- between social-liberal academics and the traditional dation, also attributes the outcome of the elections social democrats allied with the trade unions. He to far-reaching social changes that are practically argues that the middle classes are divided into op- impossible to halt. His recipe for success is for the timists who embrace globalisation, dynamic mar- SPD to evolve a vision of the future in tune with the kets, diversity etc. and those who fear these forces. times and to find a charismatic leader. Ferenc Gy- This divide threatens the whole of society and urcsány believes a shift to the left would for ideo- represents an existential threat for social democracy, logical and tactical reasons have little chance of which is in danger of being squeezed between success. He recommends instead that the SPD take populists and the moderate right. René Cuperus up a strategically important position at the centre of concludes his analysis by listing twelve points for the political spectrum with a view to advancing the how social democracy can find its way out of this cause of progressive politics in coalition govern- dilemma. ments. Although the five authors have very different The two British political scientists William Pater- perspectives and make a wide range of recommen- son and James Sloam begin by analysing the »rise dations, they all agree that social democracy con- and fall of the SPD«. They then broaden their analy- tinues to be needed – both in Germany and in sis to examine the general decline of the major Europe – perhaps more urgently than ever before. It parties and the fall in support for European social is needed not only to formulate policies commensu- democracy, drawing parallels with the New Labour rate with the challenges posed by a globalised project in Britain. In their opinion the demise of the world, but also to seek socially just solutions for the social democrats is actually the result of »failing whole of society. successfully« – of neglecting to address issues im- portant to their voters while in government. Pater- son and Sloam argue that the »missing ingredient« of both the Third Way and the Neue Mitte was »the communitarian aspect of progressive politics«.