Scandinavia Faces EU debates and decisions on membership 1961-1994 Cynthia Kite *0 * & O ' \ Scandinavia Faces EU debates and decisions on membership 1961-1994 AKADEMISK AVHANDLING Som med vederbörligt tillstånd av rektorsämbetet vid Umeå universitet för vinnande av filosofie doktorsexamen framlägges till offentlig granskning vid statsvetenskapliga institutionen Hörsal E, Humanisthuset Fredagen den 20 december 1996, kl 13.15 av Cynthia Kite M.A. Scandinavia Faces EU: debates and decisions on membership 1961-1994. Cynthia Kite, Department of Political Science, University ofUmeå, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden. ISBN 91-7191-255-X ISSN 0349-0831, Research Report 1996:2 Distribution: Department of Political Science, University ofUmeå, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden. Abstract This study begins with the observation th at three similar states - Denmark, Norway and Sweden - have had different EC/EU policies, and that one of the foreign policy literature's most interesting approaches, domestic structures analysis, does not shed light on this variation. The goal of the study is to develop an understanding of the different policies by analyzing the question of EC/EU membership using an approach in which issue area, defined in terms of both substance and impact, is linked to policy process and policy choice. Substantive issue area is studied by analyzing parliamentary debates in the three countries. An issue area typology with four substantive categories - economic, political/ policy, international/security, and other — is used to classify arguments made in the debates. The analysis shows that the question was an economic and political issue in Denmark, Norway and Sweden in the 1990s. It was a security issue in Sweden in the 1960s and 1970s. It is argued that this variation helps explain variation in EC/EU policy. In particular, the findings support the argument that the importance of the substantive definition of the EC/EU question is related to the coalitional possibilities it creates. The size of the coalition has, in turn, an impact on policy process and outcome. When the coalitions are large, the process moves mor e quickly, and parliaments and political parties tend to be consulted or informed rather than active participants. The question of EC/EU membership is also analyzed using an impact typology in which questions are classif ied as generating one of three types of conflict: none, managed and unmanaged. The EC/EU membership question is classified on the basis of public opinion data and conflict or agreement within political parties. The analysis shows that there were three cases in which the E C/EU question created managed conflict: Denmark and Sweden in the 1960s and Sweden in the 1970s. In other cases, conflict was unmanaged. In an analysis of the importance of variation with regard to type of conflict, it is argued that the data support the hypothesis that the existence of unmanaged conflict is related to decisions to call referenda to decide the membership question. In the face of unmanaged conflict political elites were encouraged to give authority for decision making over to voters. This was, in turn, linked to the emergence of ad hoc organizations dedicated to influencing public opinion for or against membership. This study suggests that the issue areas approach can offe r important contributions to the analysis of foreign polic y. A challenge for future research is to analyze how issu e areas and domestic structure interact to generate policy process and outcome. Central questions should include the relative importance of the two and analyses of the conditions under which one or the other is likely to dominate. Key words: Scandinavia, foreign policy, EC/ EU, domestic structure approach, issue area, policy process. Scandinavia Faces EU Department of Political Science Umeå University, Sweden Research Report 1996:2 ISSN 0349-0831 ISBN 91-7191-255-X © Cynthia Kite Printed at the Umeå University Printing Office Scandinavia Faces EU debates and decisions on membership 1961-1994 Cynthia Kite Umeå University Department of Political Science 1996 Scandinavia Faces EU: debates and decisions on membership 1961-1994. Cynthia Kite, Department of Political Science, University ofUmeå, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden. ISBN 91-7191-255-X ISSN 0349-0831, Research Report 1996:2 Distribution: Department of Political Science, University of Umeå, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden. Abstract This study begins with the observation that three similar states - Denmark, Norway and Sweden — have had different EC/EU policies, and that one of the foreign policy literature's most interesting approaches, domestic structures analysis, does not shed light on this variation. The goal of the study is to develop an understanding of the different policies by analyzing the question of EC/EU membership using an approach in which issue area, defined in terms of both substance and impact, is linked to policy process and policy choice. Substantive issue area is studied by analyzing parliamentary debates in the three countries. An issue area typology with four substantive categories — economic, political/ policy, international/security, and other — is used to classify arguments made in the debates. The analysis shows that the question was an economic and political issue in Denmark, Norway and Sweden in the 1990s. It was a security issue in Sweden in the 1960s and 1970s. It is argued that this variation helps explain variation in EC/EU policy. In particular, the findings support the argument that the importance of the substantive definition of the EC/EU question is related to the coalitional possib ilities it creates. The size of the coalition has, in turn, an impact on policy process and outcome. When the coalitions are large, the process moves more quickly, and parliaments and political partie s tend to be consulted or informed rather than active participants. The question of EC/EU membership is also analyzed using an impact typology in which questions are classi fied as generating one of three types of conflict: none, managed and unmanaged. The EC/EU membership question is classified on the basis of public opinion data and conflict or agreement within political parties. The analysis shows that there were three cases in which the E C/EU question created managed conflict: Denmark and Sweden in the 1960s and Sweden in the 1970s. In other cases, conflict was unmanaged. In an analysis of the importance of variation with regard to type of conflict, it is argued that the data support the hypothesis t hat the existence of unmanaged conflict is related to decisions to call referenda to decide the membership question. In the face of unmanaged conflict political elites were encouraged to give authority for decision making over to voters. This was, in turn, linked to the emergence of ad hoc organizations dedicated to influencing public opinion for or against membership. This study suggests that the issue areas approach can offer im portant contributions to the analysis of foreign polic y. A challenge for future research is to analyz e how issue areas and domestic structure interact t o generate policy process and outcome. Central questions should include the relative importance of the two and analyses of the conditions under which one or the other is likely to dominate. Key words: Scandinavia, foreign policy, EC/ EU, domestic structure approach, issue area, policy process. Table of Contents Acknowledgments vii Chapter 1: Studying EC/EU decisions: the search for issue areas 1 Introduction 1 The empirical puzzle: similar states, different policies 1 The theoretical puzzle 5 Puzzling over puzzles: how to complement domestic structures? 14 Ambitions of the study 17 Organization of the study 19 Chapter 2: Making relationships with the EC/EU 21 Introduction 21 Important decisions 21 Comparisons and contrasts 30 External developments as foreign policy context 35 Conclusion 36 Chapter 3: An issue areas framework 37 Introduction 37 Issue area: impact vs. substative definitions 37 Issue areas and domestic structures 46 Studying issue areas 49 A note on methodology 51 Chapter 4: Origins of cold-war security policies: critical decisions 1945-49 53 Introduction 53 Sweden 54 Norway 62 Denmark 76 Conclusion 83 v Chapter 5: Defining the EC/EU question: issue area as substance 85 Introduction 85 Operationalizing substantive issue 86 Scandinavian political parties 92 Defining the EC/EU question in Denmark 93 Defining the EC/EU question in Norway 104 Defining the EC/EU question in Sweden 117 Summarizing the debates: similarities and differences 131 Analysis: scrutinizing the model 135 Conclusion 144 Chapter 6: Defining the EC/EU question: issue area as impact 145 Introduction 145 An impact typology 146 Public opinion in Denmark 149 Danish political parties and the membership question 153 Summarizing the Danish case 157 Public opinion in Norway 157 Norwegian political parties and the membership question 165 Summarizing the Norwegian case 175 Public opinion in Sweden 176 Swedish political parties and the membership question 181 Summarizing the Swedish case 188 Summarizing conflict in Sweden, Norway and Denmark 189 Analysis: the impact of conflict variation 192 Conclusion 200 Chapter 7: Bringing together puzzles, issues and things coalitional 203 Introduction 203 A look back 203 Some implications of the empirical findings 210 A look forward 211 Governments as interest-creators 212 Domestic structures and the sub-structure question 213 Revisiting the channels 215 Issue areas as an approach to foreign policy 217 Conclusion 219 References 221 Appendix 231 vi Acknowledgments Since I began working on it several years ago, this dissertation has followed me everywhere — if not in the tangible form of books and articles to be read and chapter drafts to be edited, then in the intangible form of a preoccupation with a task left undone. I have not always been sure that I would succeed in finishing it. That I have done so is due in no small part to the considerable help and support I have received.