Transcript Q&A Iraq: Searching for Stability in an Unstable Region HE Dr Ali Al-Dabbagh Spokesman for the Iraqi Government, Republic of Iraq Dr Toby Dodge, Reader in International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science Emma Sky Visiting Professor, War Studies Department, Kings College, London Chair: Sir Jeremy Greenstock Council, Chatham House; Special Envoy for Iraq (2003-2004); and Chairman, UN Association UK 19 June 2012 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/ speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions, but the ultimate responsibility for accuracy lies with this document’s author(s). The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. Transcript: Searching for Stability in an Unstable Region Jeremy Greenstock: Well thank you, all three of you, for those introductory remarks. Let’s get into a discussion of this. I’m about to open the floor to questions but before I do that, Minister, I would just like to give you chance to respond to what you’ve heard from the other two because there’s a clear observation there that there is a trend back towards authoritarianism. Many Iraqis might say, ‘You need a strong man in Iraq, we’re a divided and perhaps divisive people, our history shows that. You need somebody with a strong hand at the centre.’ Could you say a bit more about what is in the Prime Minister’s mind, what he wants to create in Iraq, and what the capacity is for coalition politics in Iraq? Because as other countries in the Middle East region begin to change their systems of government, once they’ve got rid of the previous lot, they’re finding it very difficult to agree amongst themselves where they go to next. Is that still the state of affairs in Iraq and how does the Prime Minister want to get out of that trend and bring the people’s interest into this? Ali Al-Dabbagh: Thank you. I almost do agree with all the presentation of our friends, what they have said. Being a Prime Minister in a country like Iraq, I think, is not an easy job. I don’t want to polish any face [sic], by the way, and I don’t want to defend the wrong policies but I do agree that a country like Iraq, which inherited huge difficulties and problems and those that live in Iraq, could understand what I mean. The additional regional influence, plus the sectarian element which we are facing now, and the regional competition, and being looked at as an Iranian [style] state, a man who is ruling Iraq or a man like the prime minister needs to have a formula and needs to make the political process inclusive of everybody, which is again with all this taking consideration, is not an easy job. Taking consideration that in 2006, when he had been elected as the prime minister, [that the] Western side of Iraq was in the hands of Al-Qaeda. In the day time the government could make a rally in Al Anbar and even Baghdad and places like Baghdad but the security was not in the hands of the government. In Basra, the people are there without the control of the government, the British were there and they could know much better the situation. The man came and he did whatever he had to do in Basra, and Baghdad and Al Anbar with the help of the Alliances and especially the Americans. Finally, the situation calms, and don’t deny that also there is www.chathamhouse.org 2 Transcript: Searching for Stability in an Unstable Region parties, as Toby had said, and the parties know how they would rule the Ministries that they would be in charge for; it is totally like their farm. I don’t exclude any of the parties which are participating in the government. So we end up with this situation. I do agree that Iraq needs a strong man but a strong man subjected to the rule of law. This is the very important issue. The Prime Minister’s thinking that there is a conspiracy from neighbouring countries against him and against Iraq. Most of you are analysts and you could read that. What is this situation? Iraq is not [in] the system, Iraq is not welcomed. None of the countries are welcoming the way of governance in Iraq – maybe Kuwait is an exception – but all of the countries have a hand and especially taking now [with] a Turkish role in the region, the situation has been escalated by both the prime ministers in Turkey and Iraq. All of this is on Maliki, to think that, you know, there is a great conspiracy by the neighbouring countries. They want to crush him and they want to destroy him. Even today [this] morning he had a meeting and he said this is a conspiracy against me and the people who want to make a no-confidence vote are a conspiracy [sic]. He is under the impression that the regional countries led by Turkey want to make this no confidence vote against him. Again you should read it in this way; that he is feeling that there is a real conspiracy to try and get him out. I’m quite sure that many of the people might know will agree with this, but again with the situation that he is running, I think he is in a very difficult situation, a very hard situation, and meeting all the demands of the services of the people, under the pressure of the election he is behaving in a way to maintain at least the unity. Again one more issue which is Kurdistan. Kurdistan is a dispute which, I think, is more and more on hand. He will not agree that what al-Mutlaq said and what Allawi was saying because at the end they are a competitor. Because others, they would like to share his power which is defined in the constitution. With the security, he is Commander-in-Chief. This is not shared with the other parties. He should take their opinion in the national council, a security council which takes the important and main decisions of security there. There, there is a committee, like a ministerial committee. He cannot take the opinion of Saleh al-Mutlaq, Tariq al-Hashemi, Ayad Allawi or the others while taking any decision on the security. He thought that the security is not shared with the others. The other thing is all the decisions have been taken in the cabinet and I think the cabinet proved to be out of all the problems and disputes and the differences which is going on right now. I think the Prime Minister, www.chathamhouse.org 3 Transcript: Searching for Stability in an Unstable Region remarkably, has managed to chair the cabinet in a professional way, not to politicise it, and not making it any reflection of the political disputes of the cabinet. Thank you. Right, open to the floor. If I call you, please stand up, state your name and ask a question quite quickly. Not any statements please. I’ll move from the left at the front there and I’ll come through the hands that have been raised. Question 1: One of the things that Mr Mailiki said a little while ago was that one of the reasons he was unhappy with the constitution was that it had been foisted on them rather quickly and needed some adjustment. I was surprised at that because in October, November and December, way back in 2002, all the major parties in opposition met together and produced a detailed paper – you probably remember this, The Transition to Democracy in Iraq – and one of things the paper called for was a democratically and federally structured Iraq based on principles of separation of powers, the protection of individual and group human rights and setting out a road map for transition to a permanent constitution. I’m rather worried that in fact the excuse of a slightly underdeveloped constitution is being used to actually just coalesce centralised power and I certainly reject any idea that the Kurdistan regional government isn’t particularly playing fairly. So could I ask the question, why is Mr Maliki centralising power? And, frankly, you’re making him sound paranoid. Jeremy Greenstock: Let’s take one or two more questions so we can see what the tone of the room is. The fourth row there and the back left. Question 2: My question is it seems from what Your Excellency said that what Prime Minister Maliki needs at the moment is allies and he seems to be creating enemies so do you think that there will be a solution with his confrontation with [inaudible] that is more political and do you think that any of the remaining so called ‘Resistance of Saddam’ people are still doing some of the violent acts on the Iraqi scene? Thank you.