Western Balkans Policy Review 2010 A Report of the CSIS Lavrentis Lavrentiadis Chair in CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Southeast European Studies CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 editor Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Janusz Bugajski E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org contributors Barbara Balaj Elez Biberaj Janusz Bugajski T. J. Cipoletti Heather A. Conley Dragana Ignjatovic Edward P. Joseph Kiriakos J. Kalogiannis Obrad Kesic James O’Brien David L. Phillips Loïc Poulain Ilona Teleki September 2010 ISBN 978-0-89206-602-5 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Ë|xHSKITCy066025zv*:+:!:+:! CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Western Balkans Policy Review 2010 A Report of the CSIS Lavrentis Lavrentiadis Chair in Southeast European Studies editor Janusz Bugajski contributors Barbara Balaj Elez Biberaj Janusz Bugajski T. J. Cipoletti Heather A. Conley Dragana Ignjatovic Edward P. Joseph Kiriakos J. Kalogiannis Obrad Kesic James O’Brien David L. Phillips Loïc Poulain Ilona Teleki September 2010 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and Inter- national Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmak- ers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed in this publica- tion should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2010 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Cover photo: © Alex Slobodkin, http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo -12902229-european-union-crisis.php. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Western Balkans policy review 2010 : a report of the CSIS Lavrentis Lavrentiadis Chair in Southeast European Studies / edited by Janusz Bugajski. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-89206-602-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Balkan Peninsula—Politics and government—1989– 2. European Union—Balkan Peninsula. 3. United States— Foreign relations—Balkan Peninsula. 4. Balkan Peninsula—Foreign relations— United States. I. Bugajski, Janusz, 1954– II. CSIS Lavrentis Lavrentiadis Chair in Southeast European Studies. DR48.6.A76 2010 327.496--dc22 2010027369 Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org contents Preface v introduction 1. Regional Overview 1 Janusz Bugajski international environment 2. The European Union’s Policy toward the Western Balkans 11 Heather A. Conley and T. J. Cipoletti 3. Pursuing NATO Integration in the Balkans 19 Kiriakos J. Kalogiannis 4. U.S. Policy toward the Western Balkans 26 Loïc Poulain and Ilona Teleki 5. The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Balkans 34 Barbara Balaj country reports 6. Albania 45 Elez Biberaj 7. Bosnia-Herzegovina 54 Edward P. Joseph 8. Croatia 66 Dragana Ignjatovic 9. Kosova 74 David L. Phillips 10. The Republic of Macedonia / Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 82 Janusz Bugajski 11. Montenegro 90 James O’Brien 12. Serbia 98 Obrad Kesic Appendix: Western Balkans Chronology, 1988–2010 107 About the Authors 125 iv | preface The Western Balkans Policy Review is planned as an annual publication to monitor and assess developments in the eastern part of Europe and provide recommendations for policy initiatives by Western governments and multinational institutions. The talented authors recruited for this initial volume have differing perspectives and prescriptions for the region; their opinions are as diverse as Balkan achievements and problems. Of note, the views they express are entirely their own and not necessarily those of any employer, organization, or group with which they may be affiliated. Washington, D.C. August 2010 | v regional overview 1 Janusz Bugajski Since the wars of Yugoslav succession that culminated in NATO’s military intervention in Ser- bia in 1999, the Balkan region has not been featured at the center of U.S. government attention. Indeed, during both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations, Southeast Europe has been absent from Washington’s top foreign policy priorities. In many respects, more attention was paid to the East Balkans under the Bush administration as the United States established small military bases in Bulgaria and Romania and enlisted these new NATO members in the Iraqi and Afghani campaigns and in broader counterterrorism efforts. Although the United States has not completely detached itself from the post-Yugoslav region, from a White House perspective the Western Balkans have evolved into a primary responsibility of the European Union, although America can still play a supportive role. Growing EU involve- ment is understood through the reduction of the U.S. troop presence, the increase of EU security instruments, EU-incentivized structural reforms, and a road map toward eventual Union acces- sion. In this regard, Slovenia was the first comprehensive success story and Croatia is now on track to join its northern neighbor in the EU. However, the rest of the former Yugoslavia remains more problematic. Some voices, especially several Balkan experts and former officials in Washington, continue to warn about unresolved problems and potential new instabilities in the region. They have been urging U.S. president Obama and vice president Joseph Biden, who was a key player in shaping U.S. policy toward the region during the Bill Clinton administration, to stay engaged and not al- low the EU to preside over any possible deterioration in stability and security. There is a lingering suspicion among former U.S. policymakers who witnessed the horrific anticivilian wars in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosova concerning EU capabilities and political willpower. What they fear is that the preoccupation with the EU’s internal institutional restructuring and the focus on economic and fiscal challenges will lead to complacency and the neglect of niggling problems in Southeast Europe that could escalate in the years ahead. Brewing Crises Among the major problems that concern Balkan analysts are the future of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosova, and the Republic of Macedonia / Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (ROM/FY- ROM). There are warnings about potential state fracture in Bosnia-Herzegovina, where leaders of the Serbian Republic oppose administrative streamlining and centralization, viewing this as a threat to the survival of the autonomous Serbian entity. Some Bosnian Serb leaders have declared that they would be prepared to move toward separation if they are forced to surrender any more powers to the central pan-Bosnian government in Sarajevo. Observers also fear a strong reaction from the Bosniak Muslims that could lead to further political divisions at a time when the interna- | 1 tional presence is being scaled down. There is apprehension that with the potential closure of the Office of the High Representative, the EU special representative may have insufficient authority to oversee the country effectively. The parliament of Bosnia’s Serb Republic passed a law this year in support of holding public referenda in the entity. Observers are concerned that referenda organized in the Serbian Republic may challenge the integrity of the Bosnian state and the authority of the central institutions in Sarajevo. For the time being, the threat of a plebiscite is being used to prevent constitutional and other reforms before the general elections scheduled for October 2010. Observers again expect the ethnonational parties to predominate in the parliamentary ballot, thus maintaining the polariza- tion between the two entities. A referendum on Serbian Republic secession would also affect neighboring Serbia and Croatia. Belgrade’s support or silence on the question could be seen as an endorsement of Bosnia’s division and would have negative consequences for the country. It could scuttle Serbia’s progress toward EU entry and freeze any major loans or aid packages. It would also place the Serbian administra- tion in a major quandary—whether to recognize the Serbian Republic’s moves toward sovereignty and endear itself to nationalist sentiments or to oppose separation and face charges of betraying Serbian interests. A Serbian Republic declaration of secession would also lead to a crisis in rela- tions between Serbia and Croatia, as Zagreb would be determined to uphold a united Bosnia and would seek to defend the interests of Bosnian Croat compatriots. To defuse a potential Bosnian crisis, the visit of U.S. vice president Biden to three Balkan capitals in May 2009 was followed by attempts by U.S. deputy secretary