REGION ENA THE EU, RESILIENCE The EU Global Strategy outlines an ambitious set of objectives to refashion the EU’s foreign and security policy. Fostering state and AND THE MENA REGION societal resilience stands out as a major goal of the strategy, con- HE M T ceived both as a means to enhance prevention and early warning and as a long-term investment in good governance, stability and prosperity. This book collects the results of a research project designed and implemented by FEPS and IAI exploring different understandings of resilience on the basis of six MENA state and societal contexts, mapping out the challenges but also positive reform actors and dynamics within them as a first step towards operationalizing the concept of resilience. U, RESILIENCE AND E FEPS is the progressive political foundation established at the European level. Created in 2007, it aims at establishing an intellec- tual crossroad between social democracy and the European project. THE As a platform for ideas and dialogue, FEPS works in close collabora- tion with social democratic organizations, and in particular national foundations and think tanks across and beyond Europe, to tackle the challenges that we are facing today. FEPS inputs fresh thinking at the core of its action and serves as an instrument for pan-Euro- pean, intellectual political reflection. IAI is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to promote awareness of international politics and to contribute to the advancement of European integration and multilateral cooperation. IAI is part of a vast international research network, and interacts and cooperates with the Italian government and its ministries, European and inter- national institutions, universities, major national economic actors, the media and the most authoritative international think tanks. Ranj ALAALDIN Abdullah BAABOOD Silvia COLOMBO Andrea DESSÌ Mohamed KERROU This book is edited by FEPS and IAI with the financial support of the Jamil MOUAWAD European Parliament. Vassilis NTOUSAS Eman RAGAB Ernst STETTER Nathalie TOCCI Sinan ÜLGEN THE EU, RESILIENCE AND THE MENA REGION EDITED BY SILVIA COLOMBO, ANDREA DESSÌ AND VASSILIS NTOUSAS Published by FEPS Foundation for European Progressive Studies Rue Montoyer 40, 4th floor B-1000 Brussels, Belgium T: +32 2 234 69 00 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.feps-europe.eu/en Twitter: @FEPS_Europe IAI Istituto Affari Internazionali Via Angelo Brunetti 9 I-00186 Rome, Italy T: +39 063224360 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.iai.it Twitter: @IAIonline Copyright © 2017 by Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) The present study does not represent the collective views of FEPS and IAI but only of the authors. The responsibility of FEPS and IAI is limited to approving its publi- cation as worthy of consideration of the global progressive movement. With the financial support of the European Parliament The present study does not represent the European Parliament’s views. Edited by Silvia Colombo, Andrea Dessì and Vassilis Ntousas FEPS project coordinator: Vassilis Ntousas IAI project coordinator: Silvia Colombo Cover image: Annabella Cuomo Page layout: Luca Mozzicarelli – Nuova Cultura, Rome, Italy Printed by Edizioni Nuova Cultura, Rome ISBN 9788868129712 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreward Ernst Stetter and Nathalie Tocci 7 Introduction Framing Resilience: A New Pathway for EU–MENA Relations Silvia Colombo and Vassilis Ntousas 11 Chapter 1 Challenges and Stakes of State and Societal Resilience in Tunisia Mohamed Kerrou 29 Chapter 2 Egypt in Transition: Challenges of State and Societal Resilience Eman Ragab 53 Chapter 3 Unpacking Lebanon’s Resilience: Undermining State Institutions and Consolidating the System? Jamil Mouawad 75 Chapter 4 Fragility and Resilience in Iraq Ranj Alaaldin 91 Chapter 5 A Resilience Approach to a Failed Accession State: The Case of Turkey Sinan Ülgen 109 Chapter 6 Qatar’s Resilience Strategy and Implications for State–Society Relations Abdullah Baabood 127 Chapter 7 Fostering State and Societal Resilience in the Middle East and North Africa: Recommendations for the EU Andrea Dessì 157 Abbreviations and Acronyms 195 Contributors 199 FOREWORD FOREWORD Ernst STETTER AND NatHALIE TOcci Resilience has become somewhat of a bumper sticker in inter- national relations discourse and EU foreign policy in particular. It is one of the priority goals of the European Union’s Global Strategy (EUGS) unveiled in June 2016, and certainly the one that has attracted most academic and policy attention since then. The 2016 EUGS contains significant changes compared to the previous 2003 EU Security Strategy and can be described as a post-neoliberal document, driven by recent developments occurring within the EU and at the global level. Moving away from the previous emphasis on the EU’s normative power ex- ercised primarily through enlargement and neighbourhood policies, the EUGS represents an attempt to both reckon with a deteriorated strategic environment while living up to the Union’s principles. It reflects an acceptance of both the Un- ion’s declining leverage and influence and the non-linearity of changes occurring at the local, regional and international lev- els. Against this backdrop, the EUGS’s strategic approach to resilience turns out to be useful as this concept enshrines the necessary but non-sufficient conditions for non-linear change. Like the willow that bends but does not break, states and soci- eties need to be able to withstand the manifold crises, disrup- tions and shocks that are out there and likely to manifest in the future. These notions are encapsulated in the EUGS’s reference to “principled pragmatism” as the general organizing principle guiding the EU’s foreign and security policy in this new era of conflictual multipolarity, both in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and at the international level as a whole. A further important novelty of the EUGS relates to its multidi- mensional approach and efforts to overcome what amounts to a “silo mentality” in the EU’s policy approaches and discus- sions. In order to break away from the previous compartmen- 7 Ernst STETTER AND NatHALIE TOcci talization of individual EU policies, the EUGS sets out on an ambitious effort to enhance the coherence, coordination and inclusivity among different EU actions – whether these be of a developmental, energy, security, humanitarian aid, infrastruc- ture, climate or politico–diplomatic nature. This also helps to avoid the risk of one–size–fits–all approaches, while acknowl- edging that states and societies have different needs and pri- orities depending on their contexts and historical processes of development. Nowhere is this truer than in the MENA region. Finally, this strategic approach to resilience can ultimately and only be correctly understood in light of the EU’s reflexivity. Noting that there exists no universal definition of resilience and that each context will necessarily develop its own specificities and challenges, the EU has taken a step back from “teaching” and “preaching” to others as it is no longer itself in the position to play such a role (if it ever was). Instead of pursuing democ- racy promotion in its own right, fostering resilience means en- couraging those homegrown dynamics that go in the direction of more accountability, legitimacy and political participation. Instead of promoting free market blueprints as the solution to the region’s many socio-economic challenges, the EUGS plac- es sectors such as job creation, youth inclusion and the pro- motion of a rules–based political economy at the core of its external action. Eventually, such modes of representation and participation would not only prove beneficial to the specific state and society in question but also and ultimately to the EU, as it is on the basis of more resilient states and societies, as well as the establishment of “cooperative regional orders”, both within and outside Europe, that the EUGS seeks to pro- mote the EU’s own interests and values. To reflect on all this and much more, the Foundation for Eu- ropean Progressive Studies (FEPS) and the Istituto Affari In- ternazionali (IAI) have designed and implemented a research project that explores and assesses different understandings of resilience on the basis of six MENA state and societal contexts, mapping out the challenges but also the potentially positive reform actors and dynamics within them as a first step towards operationalizing resilience. It also offers some key policy–ori- 8 THE EU, Resilience and THE MENA RegiON FOREWORD ented recommendations as to how the EU’s role in the region should be revised when pursuing a strategic approach to resil- ience. Through research, outreach and publications, an author- itative and diverse group of scholars and practitioners from the MENA and Europe aim to contribute to the drafting of a new page in the EU’s engagement with the MENA region in the years to come. Brussels – Rome, December 2017 9 INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION FRAMING RESILIENCE: A NEW PATHWAY FOR EU–MENA RELATIONS Silvia COLOMBO AND Vassilis NTOusas Resilience is one of the key concepts introduced in the Eu- ropean Union’s foreign and security lexicon, especially fol- lowing its inclusion as the main leitmotif of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS).1 Unveiled by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission (HR/VP) Federica Mogherini in late June 2016, the EUGS sets out a roadmap to redefine the EU’s international role and vision. Aimed at demonstrating a practical yet ambitious policy pathway to make EU decision-making more coherent and therefore more efficient in fostering reforms, resilience has been subject to a plethora of analyses and critiques since its appearance in a variety of EU documents. It is therefore necessary to clarify what the concept denotes and what it does not, as well as what it aims to do and not do.