South Sudan Poverty Assessment: 2009-2017. Report No: AUS0000204 Impact of Conflict and Shocks on Poverty South Sudan Poverty Assessment 2017 . June, 2018 Poverty & Equity Global Practice, Africa . South Sudan Poverty Assessment: 2009-2017. Standard Disclaimer: This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Statement: The material in this publication is copyrighted. 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The impact of inflation on poverty was estimated by Alvin Ndip (Economist, GPV01) with the help of Thierry Hounsa (Consultant, GPV01). The chapter on 'Impact of Conflict Exposure on Adolescent Girls' was written by Utz Pape and Verena Phipps (Senior Social Development Specialist, GSU07) with contributions from Jana Bischler (Consultant, GPV01), Niklas Buehren (Economist, GTGDR), Shubha Chakravarty (Senior Economist, GSP06), Menaal Ebrahim (Consultant, GPV01) and Rachel Firestone (Consultant, GSU07). The chapter on 'Program Cancellation' was written by Angelika Mueller (Consultant, GPV01), Utz Pape and Laura Ralston (Senior Social Development Specialist, GSUID) with contributions from Mollie Foust (Consultant, GPV01), Luca Parisotto, Nadia Selim (Social Protection Specialist, GSP01), Jeremy Shapiro (Post Doctoral Associate, Yale University), and James Walsh (Consultant, GPVGE) as well as Nicola Pontara (Country Manager, LCCBO). Both chapters were submitted to World Bank's Policy Research Working Paper Series. The 'Displacement Profile' was written by Taies Nezam (Consultant, GPV01) and Ambika Sharma (Consultant, GPV01) with contributions from Benjamin Petrini (Consultant, GPV01). The team would also like to thank Nora Dihel (Senior Economist, GMTA4) for contributions and Pierella Paci (Practice Manager, GPV01) as well as the peer reviewers Bernard Harborne (Lead Social Development Specialist, GSUGL) and Emmanuel Skoufias (Lead Economist, GPV01) for guidance. Vice President Makhtar Diop Country Director Carolyn Turk Senior Director Carolina Sanchez-Paramo Practice Manager Pierella Paci Task Team Leader Utz Pape iii South Sudan Poverty Assessment: 2009-2017. ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AU African Union CEN Country Engagement Note CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPI Consumer Price Index CRS Crisis Recovery Survey EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FCV Fragility, Conflict, and Violence FSNMR Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring Reports GDP Gross Domestic Product GESS Girls’ Education South Sudan ICT Information and Communication Technologies IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Center IDP Internally Displaced Person IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IMF International Monetary Fund INGO International Nongovernmental Organization ISN Interim Strategy Note MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund NBS National Bureau of Statistics NGO Nongovernmental Organization POC Protection of Civilians SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SME Small and Medium Enterprise SNSDP Safety Net Skills Development Project SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army SPLA (IO) Sudan People’s Liberation Army Internal Opposition SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation Movement SPLM (IO) Sudan People’s Liberation Movement Internal Opposition SSDF South Sudan Defense Forces SSDP South Sudan Development Plan SSRRP South Sudan Rural Roads Project TFA Transitional Financial Arrangement TPM Third-Party Monitoring TPMA Third-Party Monitoring Agent UN United Nations UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNMISS United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs USAID U.S. Agency for International Development WFP World Food Programme iv South Sudan Poverty Assessment: 2009-2017. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... XIII INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................1 BACKGROUND .....................................................................................................................................6 1. Conflict and Shocks in South Sudan ..................................................................................... 7 1.1. Lasting conflict .......................................................................................................................... 10 1.2. Falling oil prices and imported inflation ................................................................................... 13 1.3. Government finances and deficit monetization ....................................................................... 15 1.4. Perceptions of public institutions ............................................................................................. 17 1.5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 20 PART I: POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY ............................................................................................... 21 2. Poverty and Inequality ...................................................................................................... 21 2.1. Poverty Indices ......................................................................................................................... 22 2.2. Food insecurity ......................................................................................................................... 27 2.3. Spatial trends ............................................................................................................................ 29 2.4. Inequality and redistribution .................................................................................................... 32 2.5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 35 3. Profiles of the Poor ........................................................................................................... 37 3.1. Structural poverty ..................................................................................................................... 38 3.2. Demographics and labor markets ............................................................................................ 40 3.3. Amenities and durable goods ................................................................................................... 42 3.4. Education .................................................................................................................................. 46 3.5. Subjective wellbeing ................................................................................................................. 49 3.6. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 52 4. Resilience and Vulnerability .............................................................................................. 53 4.1. Impact of shocks ....................................................................................................................... 54 4.2. Creating Resilience ................................................................................................................... 60 4.3. Targeting the poor and vulnerable ........................................................................................... 65 4.4. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 69 PART II: CONFLICT AND DISPLACEMENT ............................................................................................. 71 5. Impact of Conflict Exposure on Adolescent Girls ................................................................ 71 v South Sudan Poverty Assessment: 2009-2017. 5.1. Gender and conflict in South