RACE2050© – FP7 314753 RACE2050 - Responsible innovation Agenda for Competitive European transport industries up to 2050 D5.1 – Current Transport Demand and Global Transport Outlook. (D5.1 here presented is the result of - content neutral - merge of D51. and D5.2 as listed in the DoW) Dissemination level: Public D5.1 - Current transport demand and global transport outlook – FINAL - 28.06.2013 Page 1 of 152 RACE2050© – FP7 314753 Contents 1. Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 5 2. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 9 3. Current Transportation Demand ................................................................................................. 10 3.1. Current Freight Demand ...................................................................................................... 10 3.1.1. Air Cargo...................................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2. Waterborne ................................................................................................................... 20 3.1.3. Road ............................................................................................................................. 27 3.1.4. Rail ............................................................................................................................... 28 3.2. Current Passenger Demand ................................................................................................. 30 3.2.1. Air ................................................................................................................................ 35 3.2.2. Waterborne ................................................................................................................... 38 3.2.3. Road ............................................................................................................................. 41 3.2.4. Rail ............................................................................................................................... 44 4. Driving forces ............................................................................................................................. 48 4.1. Demographics and society................................................................................................... 48 4.1.1. Population .................................................................................................................... 48 4.1.2. Migration ...................................................................................................................... 57 4.1.3. Urbanisation patterns ................................................................................................... 58 4.2. Economic Issues .................................................................................................................. 59 4.2.1. GDP and GDP per Capita ............................................................................................ 59 4.2.2. Household disposable income ...................................................................................... 62 4.2.3. Globalization ................................................................................................................ 64 4.2.4. Changes in China’s Economy ...................................................................................... 66 4.2.5. Changes in Other Asian Economies ............................................................................. 67 4.2.6. Changes in MENA countries’ Economies ................................................................... 68 4.2.7. Changes in Latin America’s Economies ...................................................................... 71 4.3. Energy ................................................................................................................................. 73 4.3.1. Energy sources ............................................................................................................. 74 4.3.2. Liquid Oil World Consumption ................................................................................... 75 4.3.3. Unconventional Energy Resources .............................................................................. 75 4.4. Environment ........................................................................................................................ 78 4.4.1. Greenhouse gases and climate change ......................................................................... 78 D5.1 - Current transport demand and global transport outlook – FINAL - 28.06.2013 Page 2 of 152 RACE2050© – FP7 314753 4.4.2. Air pollution ................................................................................................................. 79 4.4.3. Noise emissions............................................................................................................ 80 4.5. Infrastructure ....................................................................................................................... 80 4.6. Tourism ............................................................................................................................... 82 4.7. Safety ................................................................................................................................... 84 4.8. Security ................................................................................................................................ 88 5. Geopolitical Issues ...................................................................................................................... 91 5.1. Trade and International Division of Labour ........................................................................ 92 5.1.1. Political and Administrative Trade Barriers ................................................................ 92 5.1.2. Global Trade and Global Value Chains ....................................................................... 96 5.1.3. Multilateral Liberalization of World Trade ................................................................. 97 5.1.4. Shifts between Industries and Impacts on Transportation ........................................... 99 5.2. Business Prospects in Emerging Nations ............................................................................ 99 5.2.1. Emerging Markets’ Research Capabilities and Intellectual Property Protection ....... 102 5.2.2. Manufacturing Competitiveness of Emerging Countries ........................................... 103 5.2.3. Unlocking the Emerging Markets’ Potentials ............................................................ 105 6. Demand Challenges .................................................................................................................. 106 6.1. Ageing ............................................................................................................................... 106 6.2. Urbanisation growth .......................................................................................................... 106 6.3. Congestion ......................................................................................................................... 107 6.4. Energy ............................................................................................................................... 110 6.4.1. Energy dependency .................................................................................................... 111 6.4.2. Scarcity of resources .................................................................................................. 111 6.4.3. Future energy comsumption....................................................................................... 112 6.5. Infrastructure ..................................................................................................................... 113 6.6. Tourism ............................................................................................................................. 118 7. Future demand for Transport .................................................................................................... 120 7.1. Aviation demand ............................................................................................................... 120 7.2. Maritime transport ............................................................................................................. 124 7.3. Road transportation ........................................................................................................... 127 7.4. Rail transportation ............................................................................................................. 130 7.5. Main findings .................................................................................................................... 132 8. RACE2050 basics ..................................................................................................................... 134 D5.1 - Current transport demand and global transport outlook – FINAL - 28.06.2013 Page 3 of 152 RACE2050© – FP7 314753 9. Deliverable basics ..................................................................................................................... 135 10. List of figures .......................................................................................................................