Road to Outstanding A qualitative analysis of UAE school inspection reports Introduction “Education is a fundamental element for the development of a nation and the best investment in its youth.” UAE Vision 2021 K-12 Education in the UAE The education system of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as we see it now, is quite new and it is remarkable how much has been achieved in this relatively short time. Around the year 1950 there were a few schools in the country, reserved for male students. In the 1960s and 1970s a school building program was put in place to expand the education system. In 2006-2007, approximately 650,000 students were enrolled at 1,256 public and private schools. About 60% of all students attend public schools. This percentage is changing in favor of the private schools in recent years. The public schools are government-funded and are free for citizens of the UAE; admission for expatriate students is based on merit and fees apply. The curriculum is created to match the UAE’s development goals and values. There are also many private schools which are internationally accredited. These follow international curricula. Figure 18: In Dubai UK and Indian curriculum schools continue to dominate but IB curriculum schools are becoming an increasingly popular option among parents Figure 1: Dubai K-12 private school enrolment by curriculum Dubai K-12 private school enrolment by curriculum18 2009-15 140,000 Overall enrolment CAGR: 6% enrolment CAGR 114,209 projected to 2020 120,000 6.7% 100,000 84,612 (65) 104,297 6.1% 80,000 79,716 (32) 55,821(54) 60,000 3.2% Enrolment 54,619 (21) 55,528 48,493(31) 40,000 39,430(32) 16,486 (15) 14,353 (11) 20.3% 20,000 29,512 3,851(6) 15,161(11) 13,386 -1.9% - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E IB MoE US Indian UK ( ) = number of schools FigureADEC; 19:KHDA; An increasingPwC Analysis, number Understanding of schools ‘Good’ the GCC and Education above Sector,Figure August 20: Parents 2016 are increasingly able to choose ‘Outstanding’ and in Dubai as rated by KHDA ‘Good’ rated schools as supply increases, meaning improvement is required in lower-rated schools to attract students Dubai K-12 private school performance19 Dubai K-12 private school utilisation rate by school rating (2012 & 2014)20 Road to Outstanding 3 Outstanding Good 50% 47% 45% 43% 40% 41% 40% 38%38% 96.3% (2012) 90.3% (2012) 36% 98.5% (2014) 95.3% (2014) 30% 20% 19% Acceptable Unsatisfactory 10% 8% 9% 9% 10% 6% 6% 5% Share of private schools private of Share 0% 2012 - 13 2013 - 14 2014 - 15 2015 - 16 89.5% (2012) Outstanding + Very good* Good Acceptable Weak 90.9% (2014) 85.0% (2012) 79.5% (2014) School Rating Figure 21: Indian and American curriculum schools are driving growth but British curriculum schools Focus on Abu Dhabi remain popular choices with parents considering admission to lower cost European higher education options Abu Dhabi K-12 private school enrolment by curriculum21 2009-14 100,000 enrolment CAGR Overall enrolment CAGR: 5% projected to 2020 90,000 92,723 15.9%% 80,000 70,000 59,890 15.9%4.2% 60,000 53,481 (45) 51,395 (48) 51,463 (43) 50,000 0.7% 55,428 50,855 (45) Enrolment 38,182 (41) 40,000 54,698 6.4% 27,699 (25) 39,989 (30) 30,000 18,384 (26) 20,000 15,619 (n/a) 14,314 (19) 15,735 1.24% 10,000 13,737 (32) 13,701 (6) 13,192 -1.52% - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Other SABIS & IB American Indian UK MoE ( ) = number of schools 18KHDA; PwC analysis 19KHDA (*beginning 2015-16, ‘Very Good’ and ‘ Very Weak’ were added to KHDA’s ratings framework); PwC analysis 20KHDA; PwC analysis 21ADEC; SCAD; PwC analysis Figure 18: In Dubai UK and Indian curriculum schools continue to dominate but IB curriculum schools are becoming an increasingly popular option among parents Dubai K-12 private school enrolment by curriculum18 2009-15 140,000 Overall enrolment CAGR: 6% enrolment CAGR 114,209 projected to 2020 120,000 6.7% 100,000 84,612 (65) 104,297 6.1% 80,000 79,716 (32) 55,821(54) 60,000 3.2% Enrolment 54,619 (21) 55,528 48,493(31) 40,000 39,430(32) 16,486 (15) 14,353 (11) 20.3% 20,000 29,512 3,851(6) 15,161(11) 13,386 -1.9% - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E IB MoE US Indian UK ( ) = number of schools Figure 19: An increasing number of schools ‘Good’ and above Figure 20: Parents are increasingly able to choose ‘Outstanding’ and in Dubai as rated by KHDA ‘Good’ rated schools as supply increases, meaning improvement is required in lower-rated schools to attract students Dubai K-12 private school performance19 Dubai K-12 private school utilisation rate by school rating (2012 & 2014)20 Outstanding Good 50% 47% 45% 43% 40% 41% 40% 38%38% 96.3% (2012) 90.3% (2012) 36% 98.5% (2014) 95.3% (2014) 30% 20% 19% Acceptable Unsatisfactory 10% 8% 9% 9% 10% 6% 6% 5% Share of private schools private of Share 0% 2012 - 13 2013 - 14 2014 - 15 2015 - 16 89.5% (2012) Outstanding + Very good* Good Acceptable Weak 90.9% (2014) 85.0% (2012) 79.5% (2014) School Rating Figure 21: Indian and American curriculum schools are driving growth but British curriculum schools Focus on Abu Dhabi remain popular choices with parents considering admission to lower cost European higher education options Figure 2: Abu Dhabi K-12 private school enrolment by curriculum Abu Dhabi K-12 private school enrolment by curriculum21 2009-14 100,000 enrolment CAGR Overall enrolment CAGR: 5% projected to 2020 90,000 92,723 15.9%% 80,000 70,000 59,890 15.9%4.2% 60,000 53,481 (45) 51,395 (48) 51,463 (43) 50,000 0.7% 55,428 50,855 (45) Enrolment 38,182 (41) 40,000 54,698 6.4% 27,699 (25) 39,989 (30) 30,000 18,384 (26) 20,000 15,619 (n/a) 14,314 (19) 15,735 1.24% 10,000 13,737 (32) 13,701 (6) 13,192 -1.52% - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Other SABIS & IB American Indian UK MoE ( ) = number of schools 18KHDA; PwC analysis ADEC;19KHDA KHDA; (*beginning PwC 2015-16, analysis, ‘Very UnderstandingGood’ and ‘ Very Weak’ the were GCCadded toEducation KHDA’s ratings Sector, framework); August PwC analysis 2016 Figure 22: Quality improvement still required despite progress in Abu Dhabi 20KHDA; PwC analysis 21ADEC; SCAD; PwC analysis Abu Dhabi K-12 private school performance22 Figure 22: Quality improvement still required despite progress in Abu Dhabi 80% Figure 1 and Figure 2 illustrate that in Dubai, UK and Indian curriculum schools 72% Abu Dhabi K-12 private school performance22 70% 66% continue to dominate, but IB curriculum schools are becoming an increasingly 80% 60% 72% popular70% option among parents. 66% 50% 2009-201160% 40% 50% 30% In Abu Dhabi, Indian and American curriculum schools are driving growth, but 2011-2013 2009-2011 19% 40% 20% 15% 17% British curriculum schools remain popular choices with parents considering Share of private schools private of Share 11% 30% 10% admission to lower cost European higher education options. 2011-2013 20% 17% 19% 0% 15% Share of private schools private of Share 11% High performing Satisfactory In need of 10% improvement School Rating 0% High performing Satisfactory In need of Figure 23: Abu Dhabi and Dubai K-12 private school market size based on tuition fee (AED) and enrolment23 improvement Figure 3: Abu Dhabi and Dubai K-12 private school market size based on tuition fee (AED) School Rating 9.24 and enrolment 8.60 Figure 23: Abu Dhabi and Dubai K-12 private school market size based on tuition fee (AED) and enrolment23 7.96 7.32 6.68 6.10 Abu Dhabi 9.24 5.35 8.60 4.70 Dubai 7.96 4.10 7.32 3.52 6.68 6.10 Abu Dhabi 5.35 4.56 4.78 4.70 Dubai 4.10 4.33 3.65 3.88 4.10 3.20 3.42 3.52 2.75 2.97 4.78 4.33 4.56 Market Size (AED, in billlions) Size billlions) (AED, Marketin 4.10 3.65 3.88 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 3.20 3.42 2.75 2.97 Market Size (AED, in billlions) Size billlions) (AED, Marketin Pre-K Education 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Figure 24: Formal pre-k education is increasing in popularity and is encouraged by the UAE government Pre-KADEC; KHDA; Education PwC analysis, Understanding the GCC Education Sector, August 2016 Total enrolment and number of nurseries24 Figure 24: Formal pre-k education is increasing in popularity and is encouraged by the UAE government 600 60,000 Enrolment CAGR: 13.2% 497 Total enrolment and number of nurseries24 437 (92% private) 500 50,000 Enrolment 600 354 60,000 Enrolment CAGR: 13.2% Nurseries 497 312 437 40,000 400 (92% private) 50,000 500 250 354 Enrolment Nurseries 30,000 219 300 312 189 40,000 400 4 Road to Outstanding Nurseries 250 Enrolment 20,000 200 30,000 219 300 189 Nurseries 10,000 100Enrolment 20,000 200 - 0 10,000 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Figure 25: To achieve the OECD average participation rate of 33% for 0-2 year olds by 2020, over 81,500 additional - seats will be required25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 300,000 295,000 (0-2 population) 274,000 Figure 25: To achieve the OECD average participation rate of 33% for 0-2 year olds by 2020, over 81,500 additional seats will be required25 250,000 295,000 (0-2 population) UAE OECD 300,000 200,000 participation participation 274,000 rate: 3% rate: 33% 250,000 150,000 UAE OECD 90,400 200,000 participation participation rate: 3% rate: 33% 100,000 150,000 Enrolment 50,000 90,400 8,900 100,000 Enrolment 50,000 8,900 2015E 2020E 22ADEC; PwC analysis 24MSA; UN; PwC analysis 23ADEC; KHDA; PwC analysis 25MSA; UN; PwC analysis (2016-20 seat estimate; (*estimate only for Abu Dhabi) based on 34% of nursery enrolment are 0-2 year olds) 2015E 2020E 22ADEC; PwC analysis 24MSA; UN; PwC analysis 23ADEC; KHDA; PwC analysis 25MSA; UN; PwC analysis (2016-20 seat estimate; (*estimate only for Abu Dhabi) based on 34% of nursery enrolment are 0-2 year olds) Statistics in Figure 3 show that by the year 2020 there is a high growth rate expected in the education industry in UAE.