Economic Impact Analysis (2001 – 2013) Toronto, Ontario Prepared for: Waterfront Toronto April 26, 2013 Waterfront Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (2001‐2012) TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................................................... I BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. I PHASE 1 – RETURN ON INVESTMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ II Synopsis ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ii Research Findings ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ii PHASE 2 – LAND AND REAL ESTATE VALUE ........................................................................................................................................................................................... III Synopsis ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................iii Research Findings ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ iv PHASE 3 – PRIVATE SECTOR ATTRACTION ............................................................................................................................................................................................. VI Synopsis ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ vi Research Findings ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... vii OVERALL SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. XIII 1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 PROJECT SCOPE ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 Phase 1 – Return on Investment .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 Phase 2 – Land and Real Estate Value .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.2.3 Phase 3 – Private Sector Attraction ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2 STUDY AREA AND WATERFRONT DEVELOPMENT PRECINCTS ............................................................................................... 4 2.1 STUDY AREA ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 WATERFRONT DEVELOPMENT PRECINCTS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 2.2.1 East Bayfront .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 West Don Lands ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Central Waterfront ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.4 Lower Don Lands ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.3 ADJOINING NEIGHBOURHOODS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Waterfront Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (2001‐2012) 3 PHASE 1 – RETURN ON INVESTMENT ............................................................................................................................................ 15 3.1 EXPENDITURE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 3.2 ECONOMIC IMPACT APPROACH .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 3.2.1 urbanMetrics Economic Impact Model .............................................................................................................................................................................. 21 3.2.2 Estimation of Economic Impacts .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 3.3 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 4 PHASE 2 – LAND AND REAL ESTATE VALUE ................................................................................................................................ 28 4.1 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH INTERVIEWS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 4.1.1 Scope of Interviews ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 4.1.2 Summary of Key Themes .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 4.2 HISTORIC REAL ESTATE INFORMATION .................................................................................................................................................................................... 36 4.2.1 Total Value and Volume of Resale Transactions ........................................................................................................................................................... 36 4.2.2 Price Per Square Foot ($PSF) Levels ................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 4.2.3 Real Estate Value Analysis Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................. 40 4.3 HISTORIC LAND VALUE INFORMATION ....................................................................................................................................................................................