Economic and Political Liberalisation in the Middle East; the 'Nluslim Brotherhood and the Politics of Succession in Egypt By Mohammed Zahid Submitted in accordance with the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The Universi", of Leeds, School of Politics and International Studies March, 2007 The candidate confirms that the Nvork submitted is his/her own and that appropriate credit has been given -*N-herereference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. Acknowledgments I would like to begin by expressing my thanks to God for giving me the ability to start and finish this study. I would like to expressgratitude to my family for helping me throughout my study, especially my mother and father for assisting me during the long 4 years of study. My appreciation goes to many people which assisted me in my work over the last 4 years. My supervisor, Professor Ray Bush has been a great help in providing useful and insightful comments on my work and for assisting me in my field work when I was located in Egypt for 6 months. I made a number of friends in Egypt which helped in the progress of my work. Dr Hassanien Kish, situated at the Center for Criminological and Sociological Research in Cairo was of great help in providing names of contacts and his personal insight into Egyptian life was of great value and benefit. In addition I would like to thank Dr Maha Abdel Rahman, located at the American University in Cairo, for providing advice and guidance during my stay in Egypt, which was much appreciated. A number of friends made my stay in Egypt pleasant, which I had the fortune of coming to know. My friend Said al Banna, who I had the privilege of knowing in the UK, was of great help to me throughout my stay in Egypt. In addition, friends such as Hassan and Hisham made my time in Cairo enjoyable by showing me around and always making me feel welcome into their homes. A special thanks goes to all the ffiends I made from the Al Diwan Languagecenter in Cairo. I would like to thank, Islam, Waleed, Ahmed, Saeedand all the other teachersat the centre for being a great help to me. In addition my fellow studentsat the centre becamegreat friends to whom I would like to express much gratitude as without their companionship Medinat al i Nasr would have been a lonely place. There is no room to mention you all but a big thanks to my room mates Farooq, Umar, Kamran, Aseem, and to Mornin and his family. All of whom provided companionshipto what became our infamous eating place 'sharkawy's' and they were always available to talk to and to relax with over a cup of tea. 11 Abstract This Egypt, by taking thesis explores the process of economic and political reform in ,Iý I- into consideration the role of the Muslim Brotherhood and the politics of succession in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood is arguably the most important political actor in Egypt, and by looking at how the Muslim Brotherhood developed strength over the decades through a process of change in its shape and character, it will allow an understanding of how it was able to pose a challenge to the Egyptian government at a time of economic reform in 1991 and the consequences, ývhich followed for the process of political change in Egypt. Also, a look at the process of political succession in Egypt, which has risen to the surface over the last 6 years, will allow an understanding into the actors and forces involved in the politics of succession and the consequences, which emerge for the future process of reform, in particular political refon-n in Egypt. III Contents Acknowledgments Abstract Contents Tables vii Abbreviations viii Chapterl- Framing Economic and Political Reform in the Middle East 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Methodology 4 1.3 Field Work 5 1.4 Limitations and Difficulties Experienced in the Field Work 6 1.5 Contribution and Significance of the Study 8 1.6 Chapterisation. 8 Chapter 2- Shifting Sands- The Middle East in between Authoritarianism and Democratisation 2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Economic and Political Reform in the Middle East 10 2.2.1 Economic Reform 10 2.2.2 Social and Economic Changes 12 2.2.3 The Shift from Authoritarianism to Political Liberalisation 15 2.3 Islamists Politics, Civil Society and its Challenge to the Arab State 19 2.4 Islamists and Obstacles to Change in the Middle East 29 2.5 The War on Terror and US Foreign Policy towards the Middle East 33 2.6 Arab Criticism of US Foreign Policy Post 9/11 38 2.7 Conclusion 41 Chapter 3- Economic and Political Reform in Egypt: Post 1991 3.1 Introduction 43 3.2 Background: Economic crisis to Economic Reform 43 3.3 The Egyptian Economy from 1980s to 1991 46 3.4 Economic reform 1991 49 3.4.1 The Economic Agreement - Objectives and Rationale 49 3.4.2 Macroeconomic and Structural Impact of Economic Reform 5" 3.4.3 Privatisation of State Owned Enterprises and Reduction in the Public 54 Sector 3.4.4 The Egyptian Socio-Economic Crisis in the 1990s 58 3.5 Economic Retraction- The Egyptian State and the Rise of Egyptian NGO'S 62 3.6 Economic Crisis, the Egyptian State and Political De- Liberal i sation 68 3.7 Conclusion 71 iv Chapter 4- The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt- Growth and Development, 1928- 1975 4.1 Introduction 73 4.2 The Muslim Brotherhood- The Life and Experiences of Hassan Al Banna 73 4.3 The Muslim Brotherhood- Factors and Causes behind Expansion and Growth 76 4.4 The Muslim Brotherhood- From Political Activism to Confrontation 79 4.5 The Muslim Brotherhood- The Turn to Political Violence and Assassination 80 4.6 The Muslim Brotherhood and the Free Officers 83 4.7 The Muslim Brotherhood, Sadat and His Search for Legitimacy 87 4.8 Conclusion 88 Chapter 5- The Muslim Brotherhood- its Transition from the Spirit to Politics 5.1 Introduction 90 5.2 Changing Political Discourse- From Hassan Al Banna to Sayed Qutb 90 5.3 Umar Al Tilemensani and Shifts in the Muslim Brotherhood 94 5.4 The Rise of the New Guard in the Muslim Brotherhood 98 5.5 The New Guard, Politics and Party Alliances 103 5.6 Conclusion III Chapter 6- The Art of Politics- The New Guard, Power and Syndicates 6.1 Introduction 113 6.2 The Egyptian State and Professional Syndicates 113 6.3 The New Guard, Syndicates and the Egyptian State 117 6.3.1 The Doctors Syndicate 118 6.3.2 The Engineers Syndicate 121 6.4 The Consolidation of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syndicate Politics in the 1980s 122 6.5 The 1991 Gulf War 125 6.6 The Muslim Brotherhood Successin the Lawyers Syndicate 127 6.7 The Egyptian Earthquake 129 6.8 The Egyptian State and its Confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood 130 6.9 The New Guard- From Syndicates to Civilian Alliances 136 6.10 Conclusion 138 Chapter 7- Political Succession in Egypt in. 7.1 Introduction 139 7.2 The Economic and Political Grooming of Gamal Mubarak 140 7.3 The Economic and Political Strengthening of Gamal Mubarak- The 2004 Cabinet Reshuffle and the 2005 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections 145 7.4 Challengers and Competitors to the Politics of Succession in Egypt 149 7. ') The Role the Em, * Military the Succession Gamal Mubarak 154 -, of tl-rPtian in of 7.0 The Muslim Brotherhood- Its Influence and Impact on the Succession Process in E ypt 157 7.7 Conclusion 164 V Chapter 8- Continuity and Discontinuitý', in Economic and Political Reform in Egypt 8.1 Introduction 166 8.2 Mubarak's Electoral Promises: Economic and Political Transformation or Stagnation? 166 8.3 Political Succession- Economic and Political Implications 175 8.4 Shifting of the National Democratic Party under Gamal Mubarak? 179 8.5 Egypt-US Relations 181 8.6 Gamal Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Implications for the Future Process of Political Reforin in Egypt 182 8.7 Conclusion 188 Chapter 9- Conclusion 190 Appendices- Interviews 198 Interview (A) 199 Interview (B) 202 Interview (C) 205 Interview (D) 208 Bibliography 211 N'l Tables Table 1: Unemployment Rates in the Middle East 14 Table 2: Trends in Voting Patterns and Number of Candidates 124 In Physicians Syndicate (1982-1992) Table 3: Muslim Brotherhood in Boards of Professional Syndicates 128 1992 vii Abbreviations ERSAP- Economic Reform and Structural Ad j. ustment Programme GCC- Gulf Co-operation Council GDP- Gross Domestic Product IFI's- International Financial Institutions IMF- International Monetary Fund IAF- Islamic Action Front LFSS- Labour Force Sample Survey MB- Muslim Brotherhood NDP- National Democratic Party NGO's - Non-Govemmental Organisations OECD- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PAMSCAD- Programme of Action to Mitigate the Social Consequences of Adjustment PLO- Palestinian Liberation Organisation SDR- Special Drawing Rights SFD- Social Fund for Development SOE's- State Owned Enterprises WB- World Bank YMMA- Young Men's Muslim Association viii Chapter I- Framing Economic and Political Reform in the Middle East 1.1 Introduction A causal relationship has been hypothesised between economic and political liberalization, with economic liberalisation viewed as a key driver in the process of political change (Fnedman, 1962; Hayek, 1960). Economic liberalisation is belleved to roll back the state creating political space to exist, in which civil society can develop.