The Other Population Crisis Kramer, Steven Philip Published by Johns Hopkins University Press Kramer, Steven Philip. The Other Population Crisis: What Governments Can Do about Falling Birth Rates. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014. Project MUSE. doi:10.1353/book.60330. https://muse.jhu.edu/. For additional information about this book https://muse.jhu.edu/book/60330 [ Access provided at 1 Oct 2021 17:16 GMT with no institutional affiliation ] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The Other Population Crisis This page intentionally left blank The Other Population Crisis What Governments Can Do about Falling Birth Rates STEVEN PHILIP KRAMER Woodrow Wilson Center Press Washington, D.C. Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore editorial offices Woodrow Wilson Center Press One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20004-3027 Telephone: 202-691-4029 www.wilsoncenter.org order from Johns Hopkins University Press Hopkins Fulfillment Services P.O. Box 50370 Baltimore, MD 21211-4370 Telephone: 1-800-537-5487 www.press.jhu.edu/books/ © 2014 by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Printed in the United States of America 987654321 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kramer, Steven Philip. The other population crisis : what governments can do about falling birth rates / Steven Philip Kramer. pages cm ISBN 978-1-4214-1170-5 Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Population policy—Case studies. 2. Family policy—Case studies. I. Title. HB883.5.K73 2013 363.9'1—dc23 2013027954 The Wilson Center, chartered by Congress as the official memorial to Presi- dent Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key nonpartisan policy forum for tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue to inform actionable ideas for Congress, the Administration, and the broader policy community. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individu- als or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. Please visit us online at www.wilsoncenter.org. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO Board of Trustees Thomas R. Nides, Chair Sander R. Gerber, Vice Chair Public members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; G. Wayne Clough, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution; Arne Duncan, Secretary of Education; David Ferriero, Archivist of the United States; John F. Kerry, Secretary of State; Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Ser- vices. Designated appointee of the president from within the federal govern- ment: Fred P. Hochberg, Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of the United States Private citizen members: Timothy Broas, John T. Casteen III, Charles E. Cobb Jr., Thelma Duggin, Carlos M. Gutierrez, Susan Hutchison, Barry S. Jackson Wilson National Cabinet Eddie & Sylvia Brown, Melva Bucksbaum & Raymond Learsy, Paul & Rose Carter, Armeane & Mary Choksi, Ambassadors Sue & Chuck Cobb, Lester Crown, Thelma Duggin, Judi Flom, Sander R. Gerber, Ambassador Joseph B. Gildenhorn & Alma Gildenhorn, Harman Family Foundation, Susan Hutchison, Frank F. Islam, Willem Kooyker, Linda B. & Tobia G. Mercuro, Dr. Alexander V. Mirtchev, Wayne Rogers, B. Francis Saul II, Ginny & L. E. Simmons, Leo Zickler This page intentionally left blank For Michele We know much more securely than we know almost any other social or economic factor relating to the future that, in the place of the steady and indeed steeply rising level of population which we have experienced for a great number of decades, we shall be faced in a very short time with a stationary or a declining level. The rate of decline is doubtful, but it is virtually certain that the changeover, compared with what we have been used to, will be substantial. Nevertheless the idea of the future being different from the present is so repugnant to our conventional modes of thought and behavior that we, most of us, offer a great resistance to acting on it in practice. — john maynard keynes, “some economic consequences of a declining population,” 1937 contents Acknowledgments xi Introduction: The Threat of Declining Birth Rates 1 1 Swedish Population Policy: The Pronatalism of the Left 21 2 Demography in France: From National Security to Family-Work Reconciliation 42 3 Italy: The Absence of Policy 70 4 Japan: The Politics of Position Taking 90 5 Singapore: The Failure of Activism 111 Conclusion: Can Government Policy Reverse Declining Birth Rates? 131 Notes 147 Index 165 This page intentionally left blank acknowledgments his book would never have been written without the Tsupport and encouragement of many people. I am grateful to the leadership of the Eisenhower School at the National Defense University for having granted me a sabbatical and generous travel support. The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars provided a wonderful place for researching and writing. I thank them for choosing me as a Public Policy Scholar and allowing me to spend seven months in a scholar’s paradise. There is no way I can fully express my appreciation to the many people on the Wilson Center’s staff who assisted me. My friend, Ambassador Pierre Buhler, an outstanding French diplomat and intellectual, played a signifi cant role in launching me on this project through his article “Puissance et démographie, la nouvelle donne,” which crystallized my interest. The Swedish dep- uty chief of mission, Karin Olofsdotter, assisted me in making ap- pointments in Sweden, as did Robert Rhinehart. The distinguished demographer Gunnar Andersson of the Demography Unit of the Department of Sociology of Stockholm University, one of the intel- lectual centers for the study of population, set up a visit and dis- cussion with his colleagues. I also met with Eskil Wadensjö, director of the Swedish Institute for Social Research. I was well received by several government ministries and organizations, including Tomas Pettersson and his colleagues at the Ministry of Finance, Lotta Pers- son at Statistics Sweden, Anders Ekholm of the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, and Ambassador Olof Ehrenkrona of the Foreign Ministry. xi Cyril Cosme of the French Embassy put together a fantastic pro- gram for me in France. The former director of the Institut national de démographie (INED), François Héran, spent a whole morning with me discussing French demography. Olivier Thévenon, also of the INED, shared his thinking with me, as did Julien Damon of Sci- ences Po, Jérôme Vignon and Isabelle Yeni of the Inspection générale des affaires sociales, and Bertrand Fragonard, president of the Haut conseil de la famille. In Italy, I benefited from conversations with Raffaele Tangorra of the Ministry of Labor, Angelo Mari of the Department of Family Policy in the Office of the Prime Minister, Professor Alessandra De Rose of Rome University, and former minister the Honorable Gio- vanna Melandri. It was a great honor to meet with Senator Mas- simo Livi-Bacci, Italy’s most famous demographer. The Sasakawa Peace Foundation helped organize my trip to Ja- pan. I would like to thank its executive director, Junko Chano, for her hospitality and Okamuro Mieko for planning my schedule. I learned much from meetings with Professor Wako Asato of Kyoto University, Dr. Takeo Ogawa of the Asian Aging Business Center, Hiroki Komazaki of the Florence Day Care Center, and the renowned demographers Naohiro Ogawa of Nihon University and Robert Retherford of the East-West Center, and from the candid observa- tions of Kiyoko Ikegami, director of the Tokyo Office of the United Nations Population Fund. In Singapore, I benefited from meeting Professor Saw Swee Hock of the Institute of Southeast Asia Studies, Financial Times bureau chief John Burton, Yap Mui Teng of the Institute of Policy Studies, and the director of the Prime Minister’s National Population Secre- tariat, Quah Ley Hoon, who even took me around her neighbor- hood to help me understand urbanism in Singapore. I am grateful to the many interns at the Wilson Center and the Eisenhower School who worked with me on this project. Two out- standing American demographers, Nick Eberstadt and Jack Gold- stone, provided valuable guidance during this project. Many col- leagues and friends read parts of the manuscript and offered valuable xii acknowledgments comments—including Irene Kyriakopoulos, Desaix Myers, Sonya Michel, Chris Barrett, and Anne Daguerre on France; Ambassador Roberto Toscano on Italy; Hsiao-Li Sun and Andre Laliberté on Singapore; and Karin Lang and Jordan Sand on Japan. Jim Ander- son read the whole manuscript and provided important comments from the point of view of a scientist immersed in public policy. Shan- non Brown helped me navigate Singapore’s politics and society, trav- eled with me to Singapore and Japan, and read much of the manu- script. George Topic played a critical role in the development and revision of the book. His enthusiasm and perceptive critique of the penultimate draft incited me to fully develop my conclusions. Sonya Michel, one of the reviewers of the manuscript, provided valuable suggestions for revisions. No one deserves more thanks than my wife, Michele Lamprakos —fi rst, for making my life happy; and second, as the best editor and critic for whom anyone could hope. A brief version of the main argument of this book appeared in the May–June 2012 issue of Foreign Affairs, with the title “Baby Gap: How to Boost Birthrates and Avoid Demographic Decline.” This book represents only the opinion of its author and should not be construed as refl ecting the opinions of the National Defense Uni- versity, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. acknowledgments xiii This page intentionally left blank The Other Population Crisis This page intentionally left blank Introduction: The Threat of Declining Birth Rates he demographic transition, which has been reordering Tthe global population for two hundred years, consists of two phases.