Final Report on Red River Valley ater Needs and Options U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Dakotas Area Office November 2005 Final Needs and Options Report Acronym List ac-ft - acre feet NDSWC - North Dakota State Water ASR - aquifer storage and recovery Commission bgals - billion gallons Needs and Options Report - Report on Red bgals/yr - billion gallons per year River Valley Water Needs and Options BIA - Buearu of Indian Affairs NPDWR - National Primary Drinking Water CDSS.-.Colorado Decision Support Systems Regulations cfs - cubic feet per second NSDWR - National Secondary Drinking Water Corps - U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Regulations DEB - Doug Emerson basin also DEBs Doug OM&R - operation, maintenance, and Emerson basins replacement DEIS - Draft Environmental Impact Statement Phase IA report - Reclamation 1998 study DWRA - Dakota Water Resources Act Phase IB report - Reclamation 1999 study EIS - Environmental Impact Statement Phase II report - Reclamation 2000 study EOM - End of Month Project - Red River Valley Water Supply EPA - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Project Garrison Diversion - Garrison Diversion Q90 - MPCA’s 90% exceedance flow guideline Conservancy District Reclamation - Bureau of Reclamation GDU - Garrison Diversion Unit Red River - Red River of the North GIS - Geographical Information Systems Red River Basin - Red River of the North Basin gpc/d - gallons per capita per day SCADA - supervisory control and data gpm - gallons per minute acquisition MAF - million acre feet SCPP - Snake Creek Pumping Plant mg/L - milligrams per liter SDWA - Safe Drinking Water Act Mgals - million gallons Sheyenne National Grasslands see the mgd - million gallons per day Grasslands M&I - municipal and industrial TDS - total dissolved solids MNDNR - Minnesota Department of Natural the Grasslands - Sheyenne National Resources Grasslands MNGS - Minnesota Geological Survey USGS - United States Geological Survey MOU - memorandum of understanding WC - water conservation MPCA - Minnesota Pollution Control Agency WCPA - water conservation potential MR&I - municipal, rural, and industrial assessment msl - above mean sea level WTP - water treatment plant NDAC - North Dakota Administrative Code NDCC - North Dakota Century Code Final Needs and Options Report Table of Contents Chapter One - Introduction ................................................ 1-1 1.1 Project Purpose......................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Study Scope .............................................................................. 1-3 1.2.1 Purpose, Planning Horizon, Service Area and Project Area ................ 1-3 1.2.2 Setting.................................................................................................. 1-4 1.3 Background ............................................................................... 1-6 1.3.1 Previous Studies.................................................................................. 1-6 1.3.2 Public Involvement............................................................................... 1-6 1.4 Overview of Report.................................................................... 1-8 Chapter Two - Needs Assessment .................................... 2-1 2.1 Red River Valley Water Systems .............................................. 2-2 2.2 Water Demand Calculation Methods......................................... 2-5 2.3 Population Projections..............................................................2-23 2.4 Per Capita Water Demand .......................................................2-27 2.5 Water Conservation Measures.................................................2-41 2.6 Municipal Water Demand Analysis...........................................2-43 2.7 Rural Water Demand Analysis .................................................2-52 2.8 Industrial Water Demand Analysis ...........................................2-62 2.9 Recreation Water Demand Analysis ........................................2-71 2.10 Other Red River Valley Water Needs.....................................2-73 2.11 Needs Assessment Water Demands Summary .....................2-88 Chapter Three - Hydrology................................................. 3-1 3.1 Introduction................................................................................ 3-1 3.1.1 Methods Used in Evaluating the Hydrology of the Red River Valley .. 3-1 3.1.2 Previous Red River Valley Hydrology Work......................................... 3-1 3.1.3 Surface Water and Groundwater Rights .............................................. 3-2 3.1.4 Climatology Report .............................................................................. 3-4 3.2 Groundwater Hydrology ............................................................ 3-4 3.2.1 Groundwater Overview in Red River Valley......................................... 3-5 3.2.2 Potential for Project Groundwater Development in North Dakota ...... 3-25 3.2.3 Potential for Project Groundwater Development in Minnesota........... 3-38 3.3 Water Demands vs. Water Supplies.........................................3-43 3.3.1 Water Demands to be Evaluated by Surface Water Model................ 3-44 i Final Needs and Options Report 3.3.2 Development of Water Demands for GDU to Sheyenne River Alternative................................................................................................... 3-72 3.4 Surface Water Hydrology .........................................................3-73 3.4.1 Surface Water Quantity Overview in Red River Valley ...................... 3-74 3.4.2 Purpose and Scope of Modeling Effort .............................................. 3-78 3.4.3 Hydrologic Data Collection and Sources............................................ 3-78 3.4.4 Surface Water Quality Overview........................................................ 3-86 3.5 Surface Water Modeling...........................................................3-88 3.5.1 Model Selection Process ................................................................... 3-88 3.5.2 Selection of Model StateMod Development and Calibration.............. 3-89 3.5.3 Modeling Assumptions....................................................................... 3-93 3.5.4 Modeling Approach.......................................................................... 3-101 3.5.5 Results of Surface Water Hydrologic Modeling................................ 3-110 3.5.6 Daily Water Modeling....................................................................... 3-115 3.6 Hydrology Summary...............................................................3-124 3.6.1 Groundwater .................................................................................... 3-124 3.6.2 Surface Water.................................................................................. 3-130 Chapter Four - Options....................................................... 4-1 4.1 Design Criteria........................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Feature Descriptions and Operational Assumptions ................. 4-3 4.3 Options (Alternatives)...............................................................4-20 4.4 Additional Option Analysis........................................................4-35 4.5 Summary of Options (Alternatives) ..........................................4-43 Chapter Five - Conclusions................................................ 5-1 5.1 Introduction................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 Future Water Demands ............................................................. 5-3 5.3 Hydrologic Modeling Results..................................................... 5-6 5.4 Options .....................................................................................5-13 5.5 Use of Report Results ..............................................................5-20 Literature Cited...................................................................5-21 ii Final Needs and Options Report List of Tables Table 1.3.1 - Technical Team Meeting Attendees................................................ 1-7 Table 2.1.1 – Existing (2005) Red River Valley Service Area MR&I Systems. .... 2-2 Table 2.1.2 - Municipalities Maintaining Water Treatment Facilities through 2050 . ...................................................................................................... 2-3 Table 2.1.3 - Municipalities Served by Rural Water Systems through 2050. ....... 2-4 Table 2.1.4 - Water Systems Individually Evaluated in Water Demand Analysis. 2-5 Table 2.2.1 - Fargo Historic Monthly Raw Water Diversion (millions of gallons).. 2-8 Table 2.2.2 - Fargo Historic Metered Water Usage (without system losses) (millions of gallons)......................................................................... 2-9 Table 2.2.3 - Fargo Historic Monthly Metered Water Use without System Losses (gallons per capita/day) ................................................................ 2-11 Table 2.2.4 - Fargo Historic Summer and Winter Monthly per Capita Water Use Data without System Losses (gallons per capita/day). ................. 2-12 Table 2.2.5 - Water Conservation Potential Assessment Results...................... 2-13 Table 2.2.6 - Fargo Water Demand Estimates (from 1988 – 2001 Historic Water Use Data). .................................................................................... 2-15 Table 2.2.7 - Ranked Lowest Naturalized Annual Flows at Emerson, Manitoba for