View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2005-06 Russian stance in the Caucasus and the national security strategy of Georgia Barnovi, Andro Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2190 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS RUSSIAN STANCE IN THE CAUCASUS AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF GEORGIA by Andro Barnovi June 2005 Thesis Advisor: Hy Rothstein Second Reader: Douglas Borer Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2005 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Russian Stance in the Caucasus and the National Security Strategy of Georgia 6. AUTHOR(S) Andro Barnovi 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT After the independence of Georgia, declared in 1991, Moscow’s strategic stance in the Caucasus has been heavily influencing the formation of the Georgian State, and has created many problems to its security. Three separatist regimes supported by Moscow, Russian bases in Georgia, and a significant economic dependence of Georgia on Russian energy markets were the most visible components of this influence. Russian negative influence on Georgia’s security, in combination with many apparent internal problems, determined that during 14 years of independence Georgia became to exist as a failed state. After the “Rose Revolution” of 2003 this situation has changed and Georgia started to develop policies relatively independent from Moscow’s strategic preferences. This thesis tries to define the possible objectives, strategies and means of the Georgian State to achieve its final independence from Russia, exercise its sovereignty on its entire territory, and provide conditions for the prosperous development of the country and its population. The thesis examines global trends and local developments that influence Georgia’s security, and suggests recommendations for the Georgian government. 14. SUBJECT TERMS : Georgia, Russia, National Security, Strategy, Separatism, Abkhazia, South 15. NUMBER OF Ossetia, GUUAM, Caucasus, Caspian Sea PAGES 126 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited. RUSSIAN STANCE IN THE CAUCASUS AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF GEORIGIA Andro Barnovi Civilian, Parliament of Georgia Graduate Degree, Tbilisi State University, 1996 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2005 Author: Andro Barnovi Approved by: Dr. Hy Rothstein Thesis Advisor Dr. Douglas Borer Second Reader Dr. Gordon H. McCormick Chairman, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT After the independence of Georgia, declared in 1991, Moscow’s strategic stance in the Caucasus has been heavily influencing the formation of the Georgian State, and has created many problems to its security. Three separatist regimes supported by Moscow, Russian bases in Georgia, and a significant economic dependence of Georgia on Russian energy markets were the most visible components of this influence. Russian negative influence on Georgia’s security, in combination with many apparent internal problems, determined that during 14 years of independence Georgia became to exist as a failed state. After the “Rose Revolution” of 2003 this situation has changed and Georgia started to develop policies relatively independent from Moscow’s strategic preferences. This thesis tries to define the possible objectives, strategies and means of the Georgian State to achieve its final independence from Russia, exercise its sovereignty on its entire territory, and provide conditions for the prosperous development of the country and its population. The thesis examines global trends and local developments that influence Georgia’s security, and suggests recommendations for the Georgian government. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. GENERAL FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM...................................1 B. BACKGROUND CONCERNING THE PROBLEM OF INTEREST.......4 C. FOCUS OF THE STUDY ...............................................................................5 D. METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................6 II. RUSSIAN OBJECTIVES, CIRCUMSTANCES, OUTLOOK AND MEANS IN THE RELATIONS WITH GEORGIA ................................................................9 A. EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL DIMENSIONS OF THE STRUCTURE OF RUSSIA’S SECURITY ...................................................9 B. MAIN STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION...............................................................................................10 C. RUSSIA’S SECURITY DILEMMA AND SPECIFIC FOREIGN POLICY QUESTIONS..................................................................................15 D. RUSSIAN INTERESTS IN THE CAUCASUS...........................................17 E. IMPLICATIONS FOR GEORGIA..............................................................20 F. RUSSIAN STRATEGY TO ACHIEVE THEIR OBJECTIVES IN GEORGIA ......................................................................................................21 G. RUSSIA’S MEANS TO ACHIEVE THEIR STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES IN GEORGIA ......................................................................24 1. Russian Diplomatic Capabilities.......................................................24 2. Russian Informational Capabilities..................................................29 3. Russia’s Economic “Sticks” ..............................................................31 4. Russia’s Military Capabilities in the Region...................................33 III. GEORGIAN NATIONAL INTERESTS, CIRCUMSTANCES, AND STRATEGY................................................................................................................37 A. GEORGIA’S NATIONAL INTERESTS.....................................................37 B. CIRCUMSTANCES: INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCING GEORGIA’S SECURITY ...............................................40 1. Internal Factors Influencing Georgia’s Security ............................40 a. Abkhazia..................................................................................41 b. South Ossetia...........................................................................46 c. Pankisi Gorge..........................................................................49 d. Other Minorities......................................................................51 e. Russian Military Bases in Georgia.........................................53 2. Diaspora Support to Insurgencies in Georgia.................................55 3. Refugee and IDP Influence on Separatism in Georgia...................57 4. Other Non-State Supporters of Separatism in Georgia .................57 C. GEORGIA’S RELATIVE POWER.............................................................59 1. Georgia’s Military Capabilities ........................................................59 2. Georgian Diplomatic Capabilities ....................................................62 3. Georgia’s Informational Capabilities ..............................................67 vii 4. Georgia’s Economic Capabilities......................................................71 IV. MAIN PRINCIPLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY AND FUTURE TASKS OF GEORGIA ............................................................................77 A. GEORGIA’S SECURITY DILEMMA........................................................77 B. FEASIBLE STRATEGIES