RANGE, PERSISTENCE, STEALTH, AND NETWORKING: THE CASE FOR A CArrIER-BASED UNMANNED COMBAT AIR SYSTEM Thomas P. Ehrhard, PhD Robert O. Work Thinking Center for Strategic Smarter and Budgetary Assessments About Defense CSBA CSBAonline.org Range, Persistence, Stealth, and Networking: The Case for a Carrier-Based Unmanned Combat Air System Thomas P. Ehrhard, PhD Robert O. Work 2008 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, non-partisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s goal is to enable policymakers to make informed deci- sions in matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. CSBA provides timely, impartial and insightful analyses to senior decision makers in the executive and legislative branches, as well as to the media and the broader national security establishment. CSBA encourages thoughtful participation in the development of national security strategy and policy, and in the allocation of scarce human and capital resources. CSBA’s analysis and outreach focuses on key ques- tions related to existing and emerging threats to US national security. Meeting these challenges will require transforming the national secu- rity establishment, and we are devoted to helping achieve this end. CSBA is directed by Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich and funded by foundation, corporate and individual grants and contributions, and gov- ernment contracts. 1667 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington, DC 20006 (202) 331-7990 http://www.CSBAonline.org Contents Foreword ..................................................................1 Executive Summary .................................................3 I. Introduction ...................................................9 Why a Carrier-Based UCAS? .......................................11 Report Organization ..................................................12 II. The US Navy and Unmanned Aircraft: An Uneasy Match ..........................................15 Unmanned Aircraft Defined ........................................15 What’s the Big Deal? .................................................17 Making a DASH into a New Domain .............................19 A Respite After DASH ..............................................20 A Naval Pioneer ......................................................23 Tentative Next Steps...............................................24 Fire Scout and BAMS ..............................................25 UCAS-D: A Significant Next Step .................................27 III. Aircraft Carriers Ascendant ..........................29 The Carrier Revolution ...............................................29 A Flash in the Pan? ....................................................32 Forming the Core of the US Strike Fleet .......................34 A Decided US Advantage in Sea-Based Airpower ...........37 Why Change While Still on Top? ..................................42 IV. Carrier Air Wings: Learning to Live with a Lack of Reach .........................45 A Focus on (Short-range) Power-Projection ...................45 Dealing with an Inherent Range Disadvantage .............47 An Increasing Demand for Range ................................48 A New Demand for Longer Range ................................51 A Disappearing Demand for Carrier Heavy Attack .........54 A Changing Relationship Between Size and Range ........56 Locking In ................................................................59 Déjà Vu ...................................................................61 V. Confronting the Soviets: Taking a Knife to a Gunfight ...........................63 The Early Soviet Anti-Access Strategy .........................64 Improvements to the Soviet Submarine Fleet ...............67 Improvements to Soviet Long-Range Aviation Forces .....70 The Rise of the Soviet Maritime Reconnaissance-Strike Complex ................................73 A Technical Knockout for US Carrier Forces? .................77 Surviving the Count...................................................79 A Changing US Fight Strategy .....................................79 Going on the Offensive ............................................80 Getting Inside the Enemy’s Reach ...........................81 Developing Increased Reach ....................................82 Keeping the Guard Up .............................................83 Winning the Outer Air Battle .......................................86 Would the Maritime Strategy and the Outer Air Battle Have Worked? ..................................89 VI. The 1990s: Shortening the Reach ..................91 A Perfect Storm ........................................................91 Plans to Regain Reach (and Stealth) ............................92 Temporary Measures ..............................................93 A New Planning Focus: Regional Adversaries ................96 A Shift Toward Guided Weapon Battle Networks ............97 Increasing Sortie Generation ......................................99 A Powerful Close-In Fighter ...................................... 100 Past as Prologue? .................................................... 101 VII. Rumblings of Change ...................................103 Early Campaigns in the “Global War on Terror” ........... 103 Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) ........................ 103 Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) ............................... 107 Implications for Carrier Aviation ............................. 109 A New Global Military Posture .................................. 114 The 2005 National Defense Strategy .......................... 116 A Disruptive Innovation Makes its Mark ...................... 117 UCASs: Stirring Both Air Force and Navy Interest ..... 118 Enter the J-UCAS Program ..................................... 122 Changing the Size-Range Relationship ..................... 123 A Step Increase in Persistence ............................... 125 A Step Increase in Stealth ..................................... 126 A Knack for Networking ......................................... 127 A New Direction? ..................................................... 128 VIII. Charting a New Way Forward ......................129 Defending the Homeland in Depth ............................. 130 Fighting the Long War against Radical Extremists and Defeating Their Terrorist Networks .................... 132 Operating in a Proliferated World .............................. 134 Shaping the Choices of Countries at Strategic Crossroads (AKA, Hedging Against a Rising China) .... 136 The Common Denominators: Range, Persistence, Stealth, and Networking ......................................... 139 On or Off Track? ..................................................... 142 Toward a Global Surveillance-Strike Network .............. 145 IX. N-UCAS: A Potential Game-Changing Advance in Carrier Air Wing Range, Persistence, Stealth, and Networking .........147 N-UCAS and Homeland Defense in Depth ................... 149 N-UCAS in the Long War .......................................... 152 N-UCAS in a Proliferated World ................................. 157 Shaping the Choices of China—A Country at a Strategic Crossroads ....................................... 159 X. The Rise of a Chinese Maritime Reconnaissance-Strike Complex ..................161 An Economic Powerhouse ......................................... 161 The “Prosperous Nation, Strong Military” Model .......... 162 Evolving Chinese Military Thought ............................. 163 Impact of Operation Desert Storm on Chinese Military Thinking ................................ 164 “Defeating a Superior with an Inferior” .................... 165 “Key-Point Strikes” ............................................... 166 Buying “Assassin’s Mace” Capabilities ........................ 166 US Aircraft Carriers as “Key-Point Targets” ................. 169 Learning from the Soviets ....................................... 170 A New Anti-Carrier Attack System: Anti-ship Ballistic Missiles .................................................... 173 The Business End of a TBM Maritime Strike System .. 176 Building the ISR Backbone for a Maritime Reconnaissance-strike Complex .............................. 179 Sharpening the Claws of the PRC Submarine Fleet ....... 182 Sharpening the Claws of the PRC Maritime Aviation Strike Forces ............................................ 189 The Inner Zone Defenders: Short-range ASBMs, SAGs, and Coastal ASCMs ...................................... 193 A Time to Prepare ................................................... 195 XI. Winning the“Outer Network Battle”.............197 A Formidable Opponent ........................................... 197 A Return to the Maritime Strategy? ........................... 201 Too Close for Comfort ........................................... 201 Improving Naval Battle Network Defenses: CEC ....... 202 The Next Step: NIFC-CA ........................................ 204 Taking on the ASBMs ............................................ 208 A New Fight Strategy: Fighting from Range ................ 211 Fighting the Outer Network Battle ............................. 217 Toward a Global Surveillance-Strike Network .............. 222 XII. Preventing a Missed Opportunity .................227 The Navy Moves Out ................................................ 227 A Conservative Approach ........................................