Party System Institutionalisation in New Democracies of Latin America, Europe and Asia A thesis submitted to the University of Manchester for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Humanities 2015 Eduardo Olivares Concha School of Social Sciences 2 Contents List of Tables, Figures and Images _______________________________________________ 9 Abstract ___________________________________________________________________ 13 Declaration ________________________________________________________________ 15 Copyright Statement _________________________________________________________ 17 Dedication _________________________________________________________________ 19 Acknowledgments ___________________________________________________________ 19 The Author _________________________________________________________________ 21 List of Abbreviations _________________________________________________________ 23 Chapter One │ Introducing Party System Institutionalisation _________________________ 27 1.1 BACKGROUND ___________________________________________________________ 27 1.2 KEY CONCEPTS FOR THE STUDY OF PARTY SYSTEM CONSOLIDATION ________________________ 30 1.2.1 PARTIES ______________________________________________________________ 30 1.2.2 PARTY SYSTEMS _________________________________________________________ 31 1.2.3 COMPARING PARTY SYSTEMS ________________________________________________ 31 1.2.4 INSTITUTIONALISATION OF PARTIES AND PARTY SYSTEMS ______________________________ 34 1.3 THEORY OF PARTY SYSTEM INSTITUTIONALISATION __________________________________ 36 1.4 THE PROBLEM ____________________________________________________________ 39 1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS ___________________________________________________ 40 Chapter Two │ Theoretical Implications of PSI ____________________________________ 41 2.1 INTRODUCTION ___________________________________________________________ 41 2.2 RATIONALE OF DIMENSIONS __________________________________________________ 42 3 2.2.1 STABILITY ______________________________________________________________ 42 2.2.2 PARTY ROOTS IN SOCIETY ___________________________________________________ 46 2.2.3 LEGITIMACY ____________________________________________________________ 47 2.2.4 ORGANISATIONAL STRENGTH OF PARTIES ________________________________________ 48 2.3 OPERATIONALISING STABILITY _________________________________________________ 49 2.3.1 PEDERSEN VOLATILITY INDEX_________________________________________________ 50 2.3.2 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL EVIDENCE _____________________________________________ 51 2.4 INITIAL CHALLENGES IN THE PSI RESEARCH ________________________________________ 57 2.4.1 SEMI-AUTHORITARIANISM, SEMI-DEMOCRACIES ____________________________________ 58 2.4.2 MATURE DEMOCRACIES ____________________________________________________ 60 2.4.3 CORRELATION ___________________________________________________________ 63 2.5 SUBSTANTIVE CHALLENGES IN THE PSI RESEARCH ____________________________________ 64 2.5.1 ROLE OF CLEAVAGES ______________________________________________________ 66 2.5.2 CONTRIBUTION OF PERSONALISM _____________________________________________ 72 2.5.3 RELEVANCE OF THE LEGITIMACY DIMENSION ______________________________________ 75 2.6 CONCLUSIONS ____________________________________________________________ 79 Chapter Three │ Research Design _______________________________________________ 81 3.1 INTRODUCTION ___________________________________________________________ 81 3.2 KEY INDICATOR ___________________________________________________________ 81 3.3 CASE SELECTION __________________________________________________________ 82 3.4 EVIDENCE TO TEST _________________________________________________________ 90 3.4.1 EVIDENCE FOR THE ROLE OF CLEAVAGES _________________________________________ 91 3.4.2 EVIDENCE FOR THE CONTRIBUTION OF PERSONALISM ________________________________ 92 3.4.3 EVIDENCE FOR THE RELEVANCE OF LEGITIMACY_____________________________________ 94 3.5 GENERAL DATA AND METHODS ________________________________________________ 96 3.5.1 SURVEY DATA ___________________________________________________________ 96 3.5.2 ELITE INTERVIEWS ________________________________________________________ 98 3.5.3 POPULATION INTERVIEWS __________________________________________________ 104 3.6 CONCLUSIONS ___________________________________________________________ 111 4 Chapter Four │ Hierarchical role of cleavages ____________________________________ 113 4.1 INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________________ 113 4.2 HIERARCHICAL DEBATE _____________________________________________________ 115 4.3 HYPOTHESES AND EXPECTATIONS _____________________________________________ 121 4.4 DATA AND METHODS ______________________________________________________ 122 4.4.1 DATA _______________________________________________________________ 123 4.4.2 METHODS ____________________________________________________________ 129 4.5 REGRESSION RESULTS _____________________________________________________ 131 4.5.1 CLEAVAGE CONTRIBUTION _________________________________________________ 131 4.5.2 CLEAVAGE CONTRIBUTION OVER TIME _________________________________________ 134 4.6 CLEAVAGE HIERARCHY FOR POLITICAL PRACTITIONERS _______________________________ 138 4.6.1 IDEOLOGICAL CLEAVAGE __________________________________________________ 139 4.6.2 ETHNIC CLEAVAGE ______________________________________________________ 147 4.6.3 REGIONAL CLEAVAGE ____________________________________________________ 149 4.7 CONCLUSIONS __________________________________________________________ 153 Chapter Five │ The Shining Side of Personalism __________________________________ 157 5.1 INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________________ 157 5.2 FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS _________________________________________________ 159 5.3 FOUR IDEAL TYPES OF PARTY LEADERSHIPS _______________________________________ 160 5.3.1 PROGRAMMATIC PARTIES _________________________________________________ 161 5.3.2 AUTHORITY CLASSES _____________________________________________________ 162 5.3.3 ASSESSING POLITICAL PARTY (SYSTEM) LEADERSHIP ________________________________ 163 5.4 HYPOTHESES AND EXPECTATIONS _____________________________________________ 167 5.5 DATA AND METHODS ______________________________________________________ 169 5.5.1 ELITE INTERVIEWS _______________________________________________________ 169 5.5.2 NET LEADERSHIP DURATION ________________________________________________ 169 5.5.3 EXPERT SURVEY ________________________________________________________ 170 5.6 PARTY LEADERSHIP TYPES IN ACTION ___________________________________________ 170 5.6.1 SOPHISTICATED PARTY LEADERSHIPS __________________________________________ 170 5.6.2 BLURRED PARTY LEADERSHIPS _______________________________________________ 173 5 5.6.3 EGOCENTRIC PARTY LEADERSHIP _____________________________________________ 176 5.6.4 PROMISING PARTY LEADERSHIP ______________________________________________ 179 5.7 PARTY LEADERSHIP DURATION ________________________________________________ 184 5.8 PARTY LEADERSHIPS AND PARTY SYSTEM INSTITUTIONALISATION ________________________ 186 5.8.1 CLASSIFYING CASE STUDIES _________________________________________________ 186 5.8.2 WIDER APPLICATION OF THE TYPOLOGY ________________________________________ 189 5.8.3 FURTHER REFLECTIONS ____________________________________________________ 191 5.9 CONCLUSIONS ___________________________________________________________ 193 Chapter Six │ Can Party Systems Be Considered Legitimate? ________________________ 195 6.1 INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________________ 195 6.2 THE BOUNDARIES OF LEGITIMACY______________________________________________ 197 6.2.1 INPUT- AND OUTPUT-ORIENTED LEGITIMACY _____________________________________ 198 6.2.2 LEGITIMACY AND DEMOCRACY _______________________________________________ 199 6.3 BY WHOM AND TO WHOM? _________________________________________________ 201 6.3.1 LEGITIMATION BY THE ELITES ________________________________________________ 201 6.3.2 LEGITIMATION BY THE CITIZENRY _____________________________________________ 202 6.4 HYPOTHESES AND EXPECTATIONS ______________________________________________ 204 6.5 DATA AND METHODS ______________________________________________________ 206 6.6 RESULTS _______________________________________________________________ 209 6.6.1 POLITICAL LEGITIMACY AND PARTY SYSTEM STABILITY _______________________________ 210 6.6.2 ELITES’ LEGITIMATION OF ELECTIONS AND PARTIES _________________________________ 213 6.6.3 CITIZENS’ LEGITIMATION OF ELECTIONS AND PARTIES ________________________________ 215 6.7 CONCLUSIONS ___________________________________________________________ 228 Chapter Seven │ General Conclusions ___________________________________________ 231 7.1 INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________________ 231 7.1.1 THESIS REVIEW _________________________________________________________ 232 7.1.2 GENERALISING INFERENCES _________________________________________________ 233 7.1.3 STRUCTURE OF CONCLUSIONS _______________________________________________ 234 7.2 PATTERNS OF PARTY SYSTEM INSTITUTIONALISATION IN NEW DEMOCRACIES ________________ 234 6 7.2.1 CLEAVAGES ARE RELEVANT VARIABLES _________________________________________ 235 7.2.2 THE OTHER SIDE OF PERSONALISM ____________________________________________ 237 7.2.3 THE PROBLEMATIC LEGITIMACY ______________________________________________ 238 7.3 FURTHER