Annual Plan 2021-22 Table of Contents Contents Page No. Foreword iii Review Committee v Executive Summary vii Abbreviations and Acronyms xv Chapter 1: STATE OF THE ECONOMY 1 Sectoral Review 3 Economic Outlook 2021-22 7 Engagement with Development Partners and External Development Assistance 10 Special Section on 11 Ehsaas Interventions – Impact on Inequality and Poverty Chapter 2: BUILDING CAPABILITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH 15 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Youth and Skill Development 17 PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Youth and Skill Development 18 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Digital Pakistan 19 PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Digital Pakistan 19 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Building Knowledge-Economy 20 PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Building Knowledge-Economy 21 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Institutional Reforms to Transform Governance 22 PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Institutional Reforms to Transform Governance 26 Chapter 3: MODERNIZING INFRASTRUCTURE FOR GROWTH 27 ACCELERATION Building Sustainable Energy Infrastructure 29 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21 and Planned Activities for 2021-22: Greening the 29 Power Sector PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Investments in Fuel Sector 31 PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Investments in Fuel Sector 32 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Reversing Water Scarcity 33 PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Reversing Water Scarcity 34 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Strengthening Efficiency of Transport and 34 Logistics for Domestic Commerce & Regional Connectivity PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Strengthening Efficiency of Transport and 35 Logistics for Domestic Commerce & Regional Connectivity Public Private Partnership Authority (P3A) 36 Chapter 4: TRANSFORMING DELIVERY OF SOCIAL SERVICES 39 PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Supporting Provinces to Improve Effectiveness of 41 Population Welfare Annual Plan 2021-22 i Contents Page No. PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Supporting Provinces to Improve Effectiveness 42 of Population Welfare PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Supporting Provinces to Improve Delivery of 43 Healthcare and Better Nutrition PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Supporting Provinces to Improve Delivery of 45 Healthcare and Better Nutrition PSDP Performance Review 2020-21: Supporting Provinces to Improve Education 47 Investment Impact on Learning PSDP Planned Activities for 2021-22: Supporting Provinces to Improve Education 48 Investment Impact on Learning Chapter 5: DEEPENING PEOPLE-CENTRIC SECURITY 51 Review of National Poverty Estimates 53 Impact and Performance of Internationally Acclaimed Social Safety Initiatives 56 Provincial and Area Governments’ Initiatives for Poverty Alleviation 59 Naya Pakistan Housing Programme (NPHP) 62 Expanding Outreach through Upgrading Digital Media Platforms 63 Chapter 6: STRENGTHENING THE FEDERATION-LEAVING NO ONE 65 BEHIND Inter-Provincial Coordination and Implementation of SDGs 67 Cooperative Federalism and Regional Equalization Programmes 68 STATISTICAL ANNEXURES 75 Chapter 1: State of The Economy 77 Chapter 2: Building Capabilities for Sustainable Growth 88 Chapter 3: Modernizing Infrastructure for Growth Acceleration 90 Chapter 4: Transforming Delivery of Social Services 97 Chapter 5: Deepening People-Centric Security 99 Chapter 6: Strengthening the Federation-Leaving No One Behind 105 Annual Plan 2021-22 ii FOREWORD Annual Plan 2021-22 aims to put the country on the trajectory of economic revival by taking cognizance of evolving COVID-19 situation. This document has been prepared by taking into account the pandemic related challenges arising in terms of lockdowns, spiraling inflation, unemployment and laying off, enhanced social protection and above all, stabilization programme of IMF. The government has announced stimulus packages of 1.4 trillion rupees including Construction Industry Package, Kamyab Jawan Programme, and expanded Ehsaas Programme to mitigate multidimensional effects of COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, Inclusive Growth through special initiatives has remained at the heart of government’s development plan so that regional disparities could be addressed to achieve equitable growth. Despite endemic structural macroeconomic imbalances accentuated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the government’s calibrated strategy of balancing between saving lives and protecting livelihood, the Pakistani economy managed to emerge with a sharp recovery during 2020-21. I am happy to mention that, during 2020-21, GDP registered growth of 3.94 percent at the back of agriculture (2.77 percent), industries (3.57 percent), and services (4.43 percent). As a result of GDP growth rate, per capita income has increased from $ 1,361 to $ 1,543. The V-shaped and broad-based economic recovery resulted from record production in the agriculture and industrial sectors, a turnaround of construction industry, and a surge in expatriate remittances. Along with prudent fiscal management and market-based management of exchange rate, the improved macroeconomic performance was also underpinned by government’s determined policy push and economic stimulus packages for agriculture, SMEs, and construction industry. The distinguishing feature of government’s policy was the implementation of internationally acclaimed social protection programmes like Ehsaas and Kamyab Jawan that helped to save lives and incomes of the vulnerable segments of the population. Going forward, it is imperative that, during 2021-22, sustainable macroeconomic policies are pursed keeping in view the downside risks that economy could face. Lockdowns in cities and slowdown business activities is likely to become impediments for supporting growth momentum. The government is determined to continue pursuing a variety of reforms that will improve investment climate as well as reduce the cost of doing business in the country. In particular, the PSDP 2021-22 aims to support prioritized areas of public investment that will crowd-in private investment, strengthen delivery of social services and, under the Regional Equalization Programme, implement a comprehensive agenda for balanced growth and employment opportunities in the less developed areas of the country. I would like to acknowledge the hard work of team members for preparation of this important document, under the leadership of Hamed Yaqoob Sheikh, Secretary PD&SI, Dr. Muhammad Ahmad Zubair, Chief Economist, Rai Nasir Ali Khan, Joint Chief Economist (Economic Policy), Members of the Planning Commission, Members of the Review Committee, Chiefs, officers and staff of the Plan Coordination Section and Jawaid Azfar Computer Centre. Planning Commission is grateful to Mr. Asad Umar, Minister for Planning Development and Special Initiatives, for his leadership, guidance and advice in the finalization of the Annual Plan 2021-22. (MOHAMMAD JEHANZEB KHAN) Deputy Chairman Planning Commission Islamabad, 7th June 2021 Annual Plan 2021-22 iii Annual Plan 2021-22 iv Review Committee Rai Nasir Ali Khan Chairman Joint Chief Economist (Economic Policy) Member Mr. M. Anwar Hussain Ch. Sr. Chief (Technical/Physical Planning & Housing) Member Mr. Shahid Zia Cheema Chief (Employment & Research) Member Mr. Zafar ul Hassan Chief (Macroeconomic) Member Mr. Javed Sikander Chief (Governance) Member Dr. Gul Muhammad Lagahri Chief (Science & Technology) Member Mr. Shahid Naeem Chief (International Trade & Finance) Member Mr. Sohail Hanif Chief (Public Investment Programming) Member Dr. Haroon Sarwar Assistant Chief (Macro) Member Ms. Aiman Amjad Research Officer (MPFP) Editors Dr. Saleem Mohsan Editor Deputy Chief (Plan Coordination) Mr. Muhammad Musaib Umair Sub-Editor Assistant Chief (Plan Coordination) Annual Plan 2021-22 v Annual Plan 2021-22 vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY State of the Economy In the face of uncertain environment and contain measures adopted in response to the pandemic, implementation of well calibrated economic policies and social protection stimulus helped achieve macroeconomic stability. Given fiscal constraints, support for the most vulnerable under Ehsaas, SBP’s targeted monetary stimulus of loan deferment, payment of electricity bills of distressed industry helped economy rebound and surpass the growth target by 1.8 percentage points as it touched 3.9 percent backed by strong sectoral performances. Agriculture sector achieved its growth targets on the back of positive contribution of crops, livestock, dairy, poultry and fisheries, while industry performed exceptionally well owing to strong performance in manufacturing (8.7 percent, with LSM growing at 9.3 percent), and services sector posting 4.4 percent growth to provide impetus to economic growth revival during 2020-21. Incentive package for construction sector during pandemic also helped invigorate the economic activity to spur backward and forward linkages. Lower net FDI inflows were offset by increase in national savings and improvement in private investments. Fiscal and Monetary Developments: Consolidated total revenue, based on 11.5 percent growth in FBR taxes, and 12 percent growth in non-tax revenues helped contain the 9-month fiscal deficit at 3.5 percent of GDP, well below the target of 7 percent. Robust measures for smoothing supply, removing market disruptions helped average inflation to stay at 8.6 percent. External Sector: On external front, growth of 6.5 percent in exports and highest ever inflow of remittances helped the current account balance post a surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP. DSSI eased the debt related liabilities which provided