Transit Strategic Plan Greater Lynchburg Transit Company FISCAL YEARS 2019-2028 MAY 2020 FINAL Prepared By: TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Overview of Greater Lynchburg Transit Company Services and Strategic Vision ................................................ 1-1 1.1. System Overview ............................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2. Strategic Vision .............................................................................................................................. 1-3 2. System Performance and Operations Analysis .............................................................................................. 2-1 2.1. System and Service Data.................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2. Evaluation of Transit Market Demand and Underserved Areas ............................................................ 2-16 2.3. Performance Evaluation ................................................................................................................ 2-33 2.4. Operating and Network Efficiency Evaluation ................................................................................... 2-40 2.5. Analysis of Opportunities to Collaborate with Other Transit Providers .................................................. 2-46 3. Planned Improvements and Modifications ................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1. Planned Service Improvements......................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2. Prioritization of Planned Service Improvements ................................................................................ 3-33 3.3. Service Development .................................................................................................................... 3-34 3.4. Unconstrained Improvements ........................................................................................................ 3-38 4. Implementation Plan ................................................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1. Asset Management ......................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2. Capital Implementation ................................................................................................................... 4-2 5. Financial Plan............................................................................................................................................ 5-1 5.1. Operating and Maintenance Costs and Funding Sources....................................................................... 5-1 5.2. Bus Purchase Costs and Funding Sources ........................................................................................... 5-8 5.3. Facility Improvement and Other Capital Costs and Funding Sources ....................................................... 5-8 5.4. Potential New Sources for Additional Revenue ................................................................................. 5-11 ii GREATER LYNCHBURG TRANSIT COMPANY: FISCAL YEAR 2019-2028 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: GLTC Bus Routes ............................................................................................................................ 1-2 Figure 2-1: 2016 Population Density ................................................................................................................. 2-3 Figure 2-2: 2015 Employment Density ............................................................................................................... 2-4 Figure 2-3: City of Lynchburg Future Land Use Designations ................................................................................. 2-5 Figure 2-4: Monthly Ridership .......................................................................................................................... 2-6 Figure 2-5: City Routes and Paratransit Monthly Ridership ................................................................................... 2-7 Figure 2-6: Peak Vehicle Requirements............................................................................................................ 2-10 Figure 2-7: What could GLTC do to encourage you to ride the bus more often?..................................................... 2-12 Figure 2-8: What could GLTC do to attract you to use public transit? ................................................................... 2-13 Figure 2-9: Priorities for Frequent Riders ......................................................................................................... 2-14 Figure 2-10: Priorities for Non-Riders .............................................................................................................. 2-15 Figure 2-11: Existing Activity Density ............................................................................................................... 2-18 Figure 2-12: Year 2028 Employment ............................................................................................................... 2-19 Figure 2-13: Year 2028 Population .................................................................................................................. 2-20 Figure 2-14: Year 2028 Population Growth....................................................................................................... 2-21 Figure 2-15: 2013-2017 American Community Survey Population 65 Years and Older ............................................ 2-23 Figure 2-16: 2013-2017 American Community Survey Minority Populations ......................................................... 2-24 Figure 2-17: 2013-2017 American Community Survey Populations with Low English Proficiency .............................. 2-25 Figure 2-18: 2013-2017 American Community Survey Households Experiencing Poverty ........................................ 2-26 Figure 2-19: 2013-2017 American Community Survey Populations with Disabilities ............................................... 2-27 Figure 2-20: Frequent Trips by Bus.................................................................................................................. 2-29 Figure 2-21: Frequent Trips by Other Modes that Could Potentially be Served by Bus ............................................ 2-31 Figure 2-22: Ridership Trend Analysis .............................................................................................................. 2-33 Figure 2-23: Net Cost Per Passenger Trend Analysis........................................................................................... 2-34 Figure 2-24: Fare Box Recovery Ratio Trend Analysis ......................................................................................... 2-35 Figure 2-25: Passengers Per Revenue Hour Trend Analysis ................................................................................. 2-35 Figure 2-26: Passengers Per Revenue Mile Trend Analysis .................................................................................. 2-36 Figure 2-27: Population Density within 1/4 Mile of Transit ................................................................................. 2-37 Figure 2-28: Employment Density within 1/4 Mile of Transit ............................................................................... 2-38 Figure 2-29: Fixed Route Weekday Average Daily Ridership by Time of Day .......................................................... 2-43 Figure 2-30: Fixed Route Weekend Average Daily Ridership by Time of Day .......................................................... 2-43 Figure 2-31: Paratransit Weekday Average Daily Ridership by Time of Day ........................................................... 2-44 Figure 2-32: Paratransit Weekend Average Daily Ridership by Time of Day ........................................................... 2-44 Figure 2-33: Weekday Average Fixed Route Speeds by Time of Day ..................................................................... 2-46 Figure 3-1: Alignment of Existing Routes 1A and 1B and Proposed Routes 1A and 1B ............................................... 3-2 Figure 3-2: Alignment of Existing Route 2 and Proposed Route 2A and Route 2B ..................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-3: Alignment of Existing Route 3A and Proposed Route 3A ....................................................................... 3-6 Figure 3-4: Alignment of Existing Route 3B and Proposed Route 3B ....................................................................... 3-7 Figure 3-5: Alignment of Existing Route 4A/4B and Proposed Route 4 .................................................................... 3-9 Figure 3-6: Alignment of Proposed Route 11 .................................................................................................... 3-11 Figure 3-7: Alignment of Existing Route 6 and Proposed Route 6 ......................................................................... 3-12 Figure 3-8: Alignment of Existing Route 6/7 and Proposed Route 10 .................................................................... 3-14 iii GREATER LYNCHBURG TRANSIT COMPANY: FISCAL YEAR 2019-2028 Figure 3-9: Alignment of Existing Route 7 and Proposed Route 7 ......................................................................... 3-15 Figure 3-10: Alignment of Existing