Outside the Institutional Box: Why Political Parties Use Pre-electoral Violence in Bangladesh By Nafisa Tahmina Akbar A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Committee in charge: Pradeep K. Chhibber, Chair Robert L. Powell Leonardo R. Arriola Raka Ray Spring 2016 Abstract Outside the Institutional Box: Why Political Parties Use Pre-electoral Violence in Bangladesh by Nafisa Tahmina Akbar Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Berkeley Professor Pradeep K. Chhibber, Chair Under what conditions do political parties use pre-electoral violence as a campaign strategy in Bangladesh? Pre-electoral violence has been a consistently regular precursor to each and every election in Bangladesh, with the most recent national election on January 5, 2014, being one of the bloodiest and most undemocratic. However, not all constituencies in Bangladesh experience the same level of pre-electoral violence. There are some like Dhaka - 8 that saw approximately 150 episodes of violence prior to the 2014 elections, while others like Gopalgonj - 3 saw none. What explains this variation? In this paper, I argue and demonstrate using a negative binomial regression model as well as case study and interview data that the ways in which individuals interface with the state (either through the bureaucracy on their own or through the use of local leaders) and the level of information parties have on voter preferences impact the level of pre- electoral violence in constituencies across Bangladesh. !1 To Sumon, Inaya, and Nehan !i Acknowledgements Writing, and completing, a dissertation requires not just a writer/researcher, dedication, and hard work, but also a number of many other individuals who support, counsel, coax, urge, and sometimes push very hard. This dissertation and its writer are no different — I have an incredible network of support who have helped me make my way to this very juncture today, and for those individuals, I offer my most sincere gratitude. This dissertation could not have been completed without: My committee and other faculty members in the political science department at UC Berkeley have been critical in my progress. I begin by thanking Alison Post, who was not on my committee, but perhaps was the faculty member who is solely responsible for my staying and surviving in this very challenging Ph.D. program. Thank you for the opportunities to work with you — your acknowledgement made me feel at home, as if someone was interested in knowing what I had to say. At a time when I was lost and confused, you allowed me to find my footing in the program. Bob Powell is also another incredible faculty member to whom I am indebted. Before we met, I had never taken a class of his and we had had no interaction prior. Yet, he chose to be a part of my committee and regularly gave me detailed feedback on my work. Thank you for always taking the time to read my drafts. All it takes is a few lines of suggestions and comments to make a graduate student feel like their work is important enough to be worthy of such effort, and Bob always sent me pages of feedback. Thank you for giving my work such importance, especially when I was not inclined to do the same. I cannot go on further without thanking Leo Arriola, who was not just a committee member, but my mentor while at UC Berkeley. There is a reason why students flock to his office hours and genuinely enjoy spending time with him — his suggestions to students are always direct and clear, he is always available for his students, and he shows genuine enthusiasm for our work. He is precisely the definition of a mentor, and I will always regard him as my friend too. I met you at a time when I hated my work and doubted my abilities as a graduate student, and you completely changed my perspective on my work and what I was doing in the program. Thank you. Pradeep Chhibber deserves my gratitude, yes, but also my apologies. I have harassed and trailed this man ever since I realized he was a difficult man to track for a meeting of any kind. I am very sorry, Pradeep, for relentlessly pursuing you so that we could talk about this dissertation, to which you have been married just as long as I. But at the same time, I also thank you for playing ball and willing to have these discussions over the years. Thank you for always pushing me to think harder and write better — this dissertation, though not perfect, is a much better version than what it was initially. I know I am perhaps one of your more demanding students, but I will soon be out of your hair, or rather, hat. My colleagues in the department have also supported me throughout the years, constantly reading my work and not falling asleep, providing me with useful feedback, and also serving as a support group whenever I lost my mind. Many thanks go to Dann Naseemullah, Vasundhara Sirnate, Francesca Jensensius, Matt Baxter, Susan Ostermann, Rahul Verma, Tanu Kumar, !ii Anustubh Agnihotri, and Elizabeth Herman. In addition, I would like to thank the many attendees of the various presentations I have held, especially those who attended the Social Science Matrix, who have challenged me to think critically and have given me encouragement along the way. I would also like to thank the Chowdhury Center for Bangladesh Studies at UC Berkeley for their funding and support while I was working in the field and writing my dissertation. Through this center, I have met many interesting and inspiring students and faculty, and it was an absolute pleasure getting to meet and know others who also share my love and passion for all things Bangladesh. I specifically would like to thank Subir and Malini Chowdhury, Sanchita Saxena, and Punita Kala for all their support. After I spent my first year in the program working throughout the day and at night, on the weekends, and during breaks, I quickly burned out and lost the ability to focus, think, and imagine. It was then that I started focusing on making some quality friends in California and actually enjoying myself. My friends have been integral to my work — it is because of them that I have been able to return to my dissertation with fresh eyes and a brain fully energized. But more importantly, these friends have helped me avoid succumbing to the depression that I experienced while in graduate school. I met you all at a time when I was very overwhelmed and could not help myself. Thank you for making me realize just how enjoyable life can actually be. A special thanks to Tanim Islam who bravely offered to read the first draft of my first chapter and then offered me critical feedback on work that was initially very poorly written. I owe the biggest thank you to my family. Abbu and Ammu have always inspired me to work sincerely and to constantly push myself. Each and every one of my achievements have their mark on them somewhere. Inaya, you turned my life around and gave me purpose. Life is much more beautiful (and loud) because of you. Whatever sacrifices I have made to get this Ph.D. is now for you and your soon-to-arrive brother — I want you to be proud of me and I hope to live up to your expectations (though we all know I will not, inevitably). Thank you for the wet kisses and the sticky hugs, they always make my day. Nehan, you have not entered this world just yet, but you will be up on stage with me when I am hooded at graduation, and I could not be more excited. You and your sister are my world, and it must be true that all good things come at once — soon after I receive my Ph.D., I will be welcoming you into our family. And lastly, I would like to thank my husband, Sumon. Truth be told, I cannot come up with the words appropriate to thank you simply because you do not deserve anything less than a Ph.D. yourself. Thank you for all those times you counseled me and encouraged me to continue on with my graduate studies. Thank you for all those tireless nights you listened to the same complaints. Thank you for helping me with each and every step of fieldwork. And thank you for supporting me so that I could achieve all of this today. !iii Table of Contents 1. Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………… 1 2. Chapter 2: The Production of Pre-electoral Violence………………………………………. 20 3. Chapter 3: Hotbeds of Pre-electoral Violence and Why Violence Occurs in these Areas….. 41 4. Chapter 4: Variation Across Rural Areas and Home Base Constituencies………….……… 59 5. Chapter 5: A Cross-sectional Examination of Bangladesh…………………………………. 75 6. Chapter 6: A Review of the Results and Thoughts for the Future……………………..…… 87 7. References………………………………………………………………………………….. 96 8. Appendix A…………………………………………………………………………………101 9. Appendix B…………………………………………………………………………………112 !iv Chapter 1: Introduction Under what conditions do political actors use pre-electoral violence as a campaign repertoire? Bangladesh has been home to frequent episodes of pre-electoral violence perpetrated by political parties against either their opponents or the general public. On December 9, 2012, a local tailor named Bishwajit Das was brutally beaten and stabbed to death in Dhaka by cadres of the Chhatra League, the student arm of the Awami League. A skirmish had erupted between the Chhatra League cadres and members of their opposition, belonging to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led coalition.