Elections and Peacebuilding in Zambia Assessment Final Report Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 3 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 8 I. Structural Vulnerabilities ................................................................................................. 9 A. Political Factors.............................................................................................................. 9 B. Social Factors ............................................................................................................... 11 Table 1 .............................................................................................................................. 14 Composition of Members of Parliament by Gender since 1994 ....................................... 14 C. Economic Factors ......................................................................................................... 14 D. Security Factors............................................................................................................ 14 II. Vulnerabilities Specific to the 2011 Election ............................................................... 15 A. Electoral Administration .............................................................................................. 15 B. Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) ................................................................................... 16 C. Political Campaign Practices ........................................................................................ 16 C. Vote Buying ................................................................................................................. 17 D. Closeness of Contests and Expectations ...................................................................... 18 E. Constitutional Reforms ................................................................................................. 18 F. Electoral Dispute Resolution ........................................................................................ 18 G. Media Environment...................................................................................................... 19 H. Social Media ................................................................................................................ 19 I. Summary of Vulnerabilities.......................................................................................... 20 Table 2 .............................................................................................................................. 20 Summary of Vulnerabilities and Implications for Conflict .............................................. 20 III. Mitigating Capacities .................................................................................................. 21 A. Electoral Commission of Zambia. ............................................................................... 21 B. Voter Registration ........................................................................................................ 21 C. Conflict Management Committees............................................................................... 22 D. Voter Education ........................................................................................................... 22 E. Zambian Military .......................................................................................................... 22 IV. Profile of Electoral Threats ......................................................................................... 23 A. Electoral Threat Profile Summary ............................................................................... 23 Electoral Peacebuilding in Zambia – Assessment Final Report 1 Creative Associates International July 2011 B. Stakeholder Analysis .................................................................................................... 23 C. Electoral Environment Factors ..................................................................................... 34 Table 3 .............................................................................................................................. 35 Closeness of Electoral Contest – 2008 Presidential By-Election ..................................... 35 D. Electoral Threat Profile Summary ............................................................................... 36 V. Current Initiatives in Electoral Peacebuilding ............................................................. 38 A. State-Based Initiatives.................................................................................................. 38 B. Non-State-Based Initiatives.......................................................................................... 39 VI. Electoral Peacebuilding Framework ........................................................................... 41 A. Recommendations Specific to the 2011 Electoral Contest ......................................... 41 1. State-Based Initiatives .................................................................................................. 41 Table 4 .............................................................................................................................. 44 Electoral Violence Education and Resolution (EVER) Dataset ....................................... 44 2. Non-State Based Initiatives........................................................................................... 45 Table 5 .............................................................................................................................. 47 Electoral Peacebuilding Framework Activity Summary Matrix ..................................... 47 B. Structural Reforms ....................................................................................................... 48 VII. Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 49 Annex One – Team Biographies and Organizational Profiles .......................................... 50 Annex Two - Institutions and Organizations Interviewed ................................................ 53 Annex Three – Acronyms ................................................................................................. 55 Annex Four – Media Organizations .................................................................................. 56 Annex Five – Mapping ..................................................................................................... 57 Electoral Peacebuilding in Zambia – Assessment Final Report 2 Creative Associates International July 2011 Executive Summary From July 8 through 14, 2011, Creative Associates International (Creative) and Pax Mondial, Limited (Pax) conducted a study in Zambia to assess the current political environment and its impact on peaceful elections. The objective of this study was to establish a profile on potential threats to electoral peace and to make recommendations on promoting a secure environment for the 2011 Zambian national and sub-national elections. The study was conducted by a four-person team, each of whom focused on one of the following areas: 1) governmental; 2) civil society; 3) political; and 4) security.1 The methodology employed by the team involved desk research and field interviews with Zambian and international stakeholders involved with administering, securing, observing, adjudicating, or providing education surrounding the 2011 elections. This methodology reflected the approach found in the Electoral Security Framework, developed by Creative for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).2 The report is organized into six content sections. This Executive Summary reviews the findings from each of these sections in order. The first section identifies underlying structural vulnerabilities for electoral conflict that may place a peaceful election at risk. The main structural vulnerabilities that pose risks to holding a peaceful 2011 election include Zambia‘s status as a transitioning democracy, political finance, as well as the presidential form of governance and associated electoral system that contribute to a ―winner-take-all‖ scenario and accompanying heightened political stakes. The lack of any political finance legal framework and enforcement mechanism embedded in the country‘s constitution has contributed to an environment in which rumors circulate surrounding the sources of funding and the ruling Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) party uses its control over key government agencies and ties with banks to place pressure on opposition parties and reduce funding to them. Equally important are the intersecting issues of high levels of poverty and unemployment and the ‗youth bulge‘ that characterize Zambia‘s demography. Poverty renders individuals more susceptible to vote buying as well as offers of cash from (mainly) political parties in exchange for perpetrating violent acts to achieve among other objectives intimidate voters. On this latter point, youth remain particularly vulnerable and have in the past in the form of youth party cadres (mainly by the MMD and Patriotic Front (PF) party) been deployed to harass and intimidate opposition voters. Although of lesser importance, the issue of Tribalism in general and in particular the corruption of tribal chiefs is an underlying area of vulnerability,