Background Paper Greater Manchester: Strategic Housing Market Assessment October 2016 BOLTON MANCHESTER ROCHDALE STOCKPORT TRAFFORD BURY OLDHAM SALFORD TAMESIDE WIGAN Greater Manchester: Strategic Housing Market Assessment October 2016 Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ..................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Policy Background .......................................................................... 3 Chapter 3: Defining the Housing Market Area ................................................. 8 Chapter 4: Characteristics of the Housing Market Area ............................... 19 Chapter 5: Market signals ............................................................................... 82 Chapter 6: Housing Needs of Particular Groups ......................................... 133 Chapter 7: Affordable Housing Need ........................................................... 161 Chapter 8: Objectively Assessed Housing Need ......................................... 172 Chapter 9: Need for different sizes of homes .............................................. 189 Chapter 10: Future Housing Land Supply Targets ...................................... 202 Appendix 1: Relationships between area Characteristics of the Housing Market Area variables ............................................................................ 208 Appendix 2: Private rent tables .................................................................... 226 Appendix 3: LPEG recommendations affordable housing uplift ................ 232 Chapter 1: Introduction Background and Objectives 1.1 This strategic housing market assessment has been produced for the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. The purpose of the SHMA is to develop a robust understanding of housing market dynamics, to provide an assessment of future needs for both market and affordable housing and the housing needs of different groups within the population over the period 2015-2035. It is being published alongside the consultation draft Greater Manchester Spatial Framework. 1.2 It assesses the existing housing market, recent changes, and future needs. In doing so, it draws on information from a wide range of sources, including nationally collated statistics, projections and forecasts, local surveys and studies, development monitoring, and published research. 1.3 This SHMA sets out the overall housing requirement for Greater Manchester (GM1) and also for the individual ten local authorities and provides an objective assessment of the need for housing within Greater Manchester. It also provides judgements regarding future housing policy decisions which the GMCA will take through the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework local plan making process. These will need to be informed by the SHMA but will also take into account a range of other evidence, including those relating to land supply; green belt; other development constraints (such as flooding, and areas of environmental protection etc.) and infrastructure. 1.4 This SHMA responds to and is compliant with the requirements of both the National Planning Policy Framework (the NPPF2) and the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG3). This study reflects the content of the PPG as it stood in September 2016. It provides an assessment of the future need for housing, with the intention that this will inform future development of planning policies. According to the PPG paragraph 3 (ID: 2a-003-20140306), housing need: “refers to the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that is likely to be needed in the housing market area over the plan period – and should cater for the housing demand of the area and identify the scale of housing supply necessary to meet that demand.” 1 Greater Manchester is comprised of the following unitary authorities: Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and, Wigan, 2 National Planning Policy Framework (the NPPF), March 2012 3 Planning Practice Guidance (PPG), first published in March 2014 and subject to on-going updates. Greater Manchester: Strategic Housing Market Assessment, October 2016 1 1.5 The most recent previous comprehensive assessment for Greater Manchester was produced in 2008, with a subsequent review in 2010. This SHMA supersedes those previous documents and therefore presents the most up to date picture in respect of housing need across Greater Manchester. It takes account of up to date population figures available at the time of writing, most notably the 2014 Sub- National Population Projections (SNPP) published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in 2016 and 2014 based Household Projections, published by Communities and Local Government in 2016. 1.6 This SHMA represents the most up to date analysis of the Greater Manchester housing market. It is a live document, and will be updated to reflect significant new information, as and when that becomes available. Figure 1: Greater Manchester Districts Source: Mappinggm.org.uk Greater Manchester: Strategic Housing Market Assessment, October 2016 2 Chapter 2: Policy Background 2.1 National policies for plan-making are set out within the NPPF. This sets out key policies against which development plans will be assessed at examination and with which they must comply. National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) 2.2 The NPPF was published in March 2012. Paragraph 14 of the Framework sets a presumption in favour of sustainable development whereby Local Plans should meet objectively assessed development needs, with sufficient flexibility to respond to rapid change, unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits when assessed against the Framework as a whole or specific policies within the Framework indicate that development should be restricted. 2.3 In regard to housing mix, paragraph 50 of the NPPF sets out that local authorities should plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community. Planning authorities should identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in particular locations reflecting local demand. Where there is an identified affordable housing need, policies should be set to meet this need and these policies should be sufficiently flexible to take account of changing market conditions over time. 2.4 Paragraph 158 of the NPPF states that each local planning authority should ensure that the Local Plan is based on adequate, up-to-date and relevant evidence, about the economic, social and environmental characteristics and prospects of the area. Local planning authorities should ensure that their assessment of and strategies for housing, employment and other uses are integrated, and that they take full account of relevant market and economic signals. 2.5 Paragraph 159 of the NPPF highlights the SHMA as a key piece of evidence in determining housing needs. The paragraph sets out that local planning authorities should “prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. The Strategic Housing Market Assessment should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which: “Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change; Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community; and caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand.” 2.6 Paragraph 159 further states that local authorities should prepare Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments (SHLAAs) to “establish realistic assumptions about Greater Manchester: Strategic Housing Market Assessment, October 2016 3 the availability, suitability and the likely economic viability of land” to meet the OAN for the plan period. 2.7 Paragraph 178 sets out that “public bodies have a duty to cooperate on planning issues that cross administrative boundaries, particularly those which relate to the strategic priorities set out in paragraph 156 (which includes homes). The Government expects joint working on areas of common interest to be diligently undertaken for the mutual benefit of neighbouring authorities.” 2.8 Paragraph 181 sets out that Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) will be expected to demonstrate evidence of having effectively cooperated to plan for issues with cross- boundary impacts when their Local Plans are submitted for examination. This highlights the importance of collaborative working and engaging constructively with neighbouring authorities, as required by Section 33A of the 2004 Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act. Housing provision is an important cross-boundary issue. Planning Practice Guidance 2.9 Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) was issued by Government in March 2014 and contains guidance on ‘Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments’. This is relevant to this SHMA in that it provides clarity on how key elements of the NPPF should be interpreted, including the approach to deriving an objective assessment housing need. The approach in this report takes account of the PPG. 2.10 Paragraph 5, ID: 2a-005-20140306, states that there is no one methodological approach or use of a particular dataset(s) that will provide a definitive assessment of development need. But the use of