A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF APPLICATIONS OF EARTH ORBITAL SPACE TECHNOLOGY TO SELECTED CASES IN WATER MANAGEMENT AND AGRICULTURE Volume II - Technical Report r4:produced by NTONA5 TECHNICAL 1NFORMATIONSEVCp"rgfild, Va 22151 PLANNING RESEARCH CORPORATION L ANGQRELES.OCALIMFORN1IA WAINGTO D C = (ACCES .2f44 , 'BER) = -(THPU) orEj (CODE) A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF APPLICATIONS OF EARTH ORBITAL SPACE TECHNOLOGY TO SELECTED CASES IN WATER MANAGEMENT AND AGRICULTURE Volume II - Technical Report PRC R-1224 Revised November 1969 Prepared for National Aeronautics and Space Admimstration Washington, D C Under Contract NASw-1816 By Planning Research Corporation gti)nNMNG PAGE BLANK NOT FITMBU FOREWORD This study has been completed in partial fulfillment of a request by the Bureau of the Budget to the National Aeronautics and Space Adnrnis­ tration (NASA) for a systems analysis of several specific applications of satellite-based remote sensing to earthbound problems. The study was funded and managed by the NASA Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) and was coordinated and revewed by the interagency Earth Re­ sources Survey Program Revew Committee (ERSPRC). The committee is chaired by a NASA representative and currently includes representa­ tives from U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Interior, Commerce, and Navy. The prime contractor, Planning Research Corporation (PRC) was assisted by the Willow Run Laboratories of the University of Michigan under a subcontract to supply technical data and judgments on sensor capabilities. The focus of the study was formulation and evaluation of feasible future operational system concepts for applying satellite-based remote sensing to improve the management of specific water resource and agricultural activities. These future operational concepts were assumed to follow the present research and development time frame of the NASA­ user agency Earth Resources Survey Program. It was recognized at the outset that considerable research and development would be required before any such future operational concepts could be realized. it was, however, the principal purpose of the study to assess the position that future operational space-assisted ERS systems concepts were of suf­ ficient promise to warrant rapid development of experimental Earth Observations satellites known as Earth Resources Technology Satellites (ERTS) The scope of the present study required emphasis on concepts for using space technology rather than on improvements not requiring assis­ tance from space. However, it was clear that any satellite-assisted information system concept should be compared with improvements not using satellites. In addition, it was expected that any system using satellites would support and complement many of the existing or planned ill user agency systems and procedures. Thus, while specific alternatives to satellite-assisted information systems were evaluated, the scope of this study did not permit evaluation of integration with all user agency systems or of all alternative programs available to the user agencies. This study does present a concept for a satellite assisted information system, an estimate of the expected costs along with the expected bene­ fits, and a comparison with some selected alternatives. As prime contractor, PRC wishes to express its appreciation to the organizations associated with ERSPRC for assistance through ready access to knowledgeable personnel who provided data and guidance vital to the success of the study. In the final phase of the work, ERSPRC (and its Benefits Studies Subcommittee) participated in a detailed review and criticism of the complete final report. This review, however, does not imply endorsement of the system configuration details or cost­ benefit dollar values. The conclusions and recommendations contained in this report are those of the contractor. The NASA Project Officers were Mr. J. Robert Porter and R. Robert A. Summers. The PRC Project Managers were Dr. Allen H. Muir and Mr. John F. Magnotti, Jr. The final report on this study is presented in two volumes. The full description of the work is contained in Volume II, Technical Report, and is supported by nine appendixes and a bibliography. The appendixes are the following Appendix A-User Sensor Model-Hydrology Appendix B-Hydrological Models Appendix C-System Operation and Benefits Appendix D-Satellite System Description and Costs Appendix E-Alternative Information Systems Appendix F-Noninformation Alternatives Appendix G-User Sensor Model-Agriculture Appendix H-Wheat Production Management Appendix I -Wheat Rust Control Volume I, Technical Summary, is a much briefer description of the significant aspects of the work Detailed descriptions of the calculations and procedures referred to in Volume I will be found in Volume II iv ABSTRACT A systems analysis of three of the many uses of space technology for earth applications was undertaken by the Planning Research Corpora­ tion The work followed a uniform methodology developed in an earlier report, PRC Technical Report R-1218 The case studies related to * The management of the regional demand and supply of water (emphasizing the generation of hydroelectric power, flood control, irrigation, and recreation) * The management of the world wheat crop (emphasizing the impact of fluctuations on the United States as the major exporter) o The control of wheat rust, a principal cause of wheat losses in the United States and abroad A conceptual system was designed that links user information needs to the specifications of satellite-borne sensors and the interpreta­ tion and dissemination of results to the users The satellite, sensors, communications, data processing, and dis­ semination system required will have to be supported by developmental research, however, it appears that no significant basic research in the hardware state-of-the-art will be necessary Proof of operational effec­ tiveness of the multispectral scanner, the multispectral television, and the synthetic aperture radar at satellite altitudes and the incorporation of the relevant earth science models into the integrated system must be undertaken The estimated total system costs, including R&D, investment, and 20 years' annual operating costs total $1 34 billion The United States' benefits from the three cases were estimated at 10 5 billion for the 1970­ 90 period, and world benefits were estimated at $50 billion The bene­ fits accrue to power users, residents of flood plains, farmers, other in­ dividuals, and the general public The four-satellite system proposed in the report could be deployed solely for wheat production management alone, but the benefits could be v realized with fewer satellites and no radar The satellite system makes it possible to monitor world wheat production to permit optimal United States adjustments The wheat rust case requires more frequent monitoring (every 12 hours) and the use of radar Aircraft overflights offer a lower cost alter­ native than a satellite system used solely for wheat rust control The water management case requires 6-hour coverage and the full use of the satellite system The cost-benefit ratios are substantial, and the satellite is superior to aircraft and other alternatives if a major por­ tion of the United States' river basins are covered Viewed in another perspective, however, the multipurpose satellite system requiring 6-hour observations, the multispectral scanner, TV, and radar can be supported by the water management case alone That system could then generate, as by-products, the benefits from the wheat management and wheat rust cases v3 -TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION 1 I WATER MANAGEMENT CASE 7 A Information User Survey 8 B User-Sensor Model 16 1 Principal Observations Required 17 2 Selected Sensors 18 C Hydrological Models 32 1 Subbasin Forecasting Model 32 2 River User Decision Mode] 73 D System Operation and Benefits 82 1 Hydroelectric Power Benefits 82 2 Irrigation - 99 3 Flood Control 107 4 Navigation 114 5 Recreation . 115 E Satellite Constellation Analysis 1z0 1 Definition of Geographical Areas 120 2 Requirements Analysis 120 F Information System Configuration 1Z8 G System Costs 138 1 Satellite Program 1970-1990 System 138 2 Spacecraft System Satellite Program R&D 138 3 Launch Vehicle 141 4 Interpretation and Analysis Center 141 5 Communications 141 6 Sensitivity Analysis 143 H Summary of Water Management Costs and Benefits in the Pacific Northwest, 1970-1989 149 I Extrapolation of Water Management Benefits From the Pacific Northwest to the United States 154 1 The Extrapolation Model 154 2 Results of the Model 158 vii TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page J Information Alternatives 160 K Noninformation Alternatives 164 III AGRICULTURE CASES 169 A Information User Survey ....... 169 B User-Sensor Model .. 176 C Wheat Inventory/Yield Management 180 1 Wheat Inventory/Yield User Decision Model . 180 2 Benefits 2.....05 3 Total Costs o 220 4 Sensitivity 220 5 Noninformation Alternatives 222 D Wheat Rust Control . 226 1 User Decision Model . .. 226 2 Total Benefits . 244 3 Total Costs . 250 4 Sensitivity 250 5 Information Alternatives 253 6 Noninformation Alternatives . 255 IV TECHNOLOGICAL PHASING 259 V CONCLUSIONS .... 269 BIBLIOGRAPHY 275 viii LIST OF EXHIBITS Page I-I Abbreviated Methodological Flow Diagram. 3 11-1 Columbia River Basin Hydro Information-Decision System 9 U1-2 Summary of Major Findings of Information User Survey 12 11-3 Potential Sensings From Satellite 20 11-4 Major Hydrologic Parameters and Sensor Capabilities 21 II-5 Regional Water Management