Conflict Dynamics in Irregular Armed Conflict A Case Study of the Israeli Independence War Vincent R. Nieuwpoort Student Number: S1201646 Supervisor: dr. Alastair Reed Second reader: Prof. dr. Edwin Bakker Date: 13-01-2016 Leiden University Institute of Security and Global Affairs MSc Crisis and Security Management This thesis is part of the capstone project: ‘conflict dynamics: understanding the escalation and de-escalation of irregular armed conflict’ ABSTRACT Many factors cause and influence the dynamics of irregular armed conflict. Scholars either focused on single factors influencing conflict dynamics, the causes or the de-escalation of the conflict. Additionally, changing popular discourses in conflict studies influenced the way conflict has been researched. In order to identify the factors that could have driven the escalation and de-escalation of a conflict, a holistic analytical framework has been developed. The overall purpose of this project has been to create an extensive framework that can be used to research the dynamics of irregular armed conflicts. The development of the analytical framework has been done by exploring the literature on conflict. Based on these insights, the framework included fifteen factors that seem to influence the dynamics of conflict: 1) social cleavages; 2) popular support; 3) grievances; 4) local politics; 5) national politics; 6) international politics; 7) natural disasters; 8) state action – coercive force; 9) state action – policy solution; 10) state capacity; 11) strong/weak government; 12) strategy of armed groups; 13) capacity of armed groups; 14) factionalisation; 15) criminalisation. The framework has been applied to four historical cases, conflicts which experienced periods of escalation and de-escalation. The historical analysis offered in-depth knowledge on the changing dynamics of the following conflicts: the Israeli Independence War (1947-1948), the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), the Namibian Independence War (1966-1990) and the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009). Information about the cases has been gathered by analysing primary sources and secondary literature, and conducting interviews. To structure the analysis, the conflicts have been divided into distinct phases. In order to gain new insights and improve the analytical framework, a comparative analysis has been performed. The comparative research offered several new insights. First, regional politics was considered to play a significant role in changing the dynamics in all four cases. Second, geography influenced the dynamics in both the case of Lebanon and Sri Lanka. Therefore, these factors have been added to the analytical framework. Third, the comparative research indicated that the factors influenced the dynamics of the conflicts in different ways. Fourth, the significance of the factors differed per conflict. Still, several factors played a significant role in all four cases, for example, social cleavages, popular support, and regional politics. Fifth, a combination of factors tends to explain the dynamics of the conflict throughout the phases, 2 which indicates that focusing on a single driver or discourse is insufficient. This shows the importance of using a holistic approach. The research has also revealed several limitations of the analytical framework. First, it must be noted that the analytical framework offers limited insights with regard to the direction of the interaction. Second, a combination of factors might influence the dynamics rather than one factor on its own, for instance, armed groups use grievances, caused by social cleavages, to acquire new recruits. The analytical framework might cause that the researcher focuses too much on individual factors rather than the interaction between them. Third, the exploratory nature of the research does not yet allow to generalise the outcomes. Hence, further research is necessary to improve the quality and applicability of the framework. Keywords: conflict studies, irregular armed conflict, conflict dynamics, the Israeli Independence War, the Lebanese Civil War, the Namibian Independence War, the Sri Lankan Civil War. 3 TABLE OF CONTENT Abstract ................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of content ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Literature review ................................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1. Conflict emergence ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2. Changes in conflict dynamics: escalation and de-escalation ..................................................................... 15 2.3. Dispute settlement and conflict resolution ................................................................................................. 25 2.4 Conflict theory ............................................................................................................................................ 27 2.5 Conceptualisations ...................................................................................................................................... 32 3. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................... 42 3.1 Quantitative or qualitative methods ............................................................................................................ 42 3.2 Comparative historical analysis .................................................................................................................. 44 3.3 Single case study or comparative case studies ............................................................................................ 44 3.4 Empirical or theoretical case studies ........................................................................................................... 45 3.5 Method of data-gathering............................................................................................................................ 46 3.6 Analytical framework ................................................................................................................................. 47 3.7 Case selection ............................................................................................................................................. 58 3.8 The utility of using phases .......................................................................................................................... 63 4. The Israeli Independence War ........................................................................................................................... 64 4.1 Introduction: ............................................................................................................................................... 64 4.2 Case Descrition ........................................................................................................................................... 65 4.2.1 Prologue: .................................................................................................................................................. 65 4.2.2 Phase 1: No resolution ............................................................................................................................. 78 4.2.3 Phase 2: Terror in Palestine ..................................................................................................................... 87 4.2.4 Phase 3: Civil War in Palestine ................................................................................................................ 96 4.2.5 Phase 4: The Jewish Offensive .............................................................................................................. 102 4.2.6 Phase 5: Interstate war of 1948 .............................................................................................................. 110 4.2.7 Epilogue: ................................................................................................................................................ 127 4.3 Analysis: ................................................................................................................................................... 129 4.4 Conclusion: ............................................................................................................................................... 139 5. Comparative analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 142 5.1 Context...................................................................................................................................................... 142 5.2 State .......................................................................................................................................................... 149 5.3 Non-state ..................................................................................................................................................