MOOCs: Expectations and Reality Full Report May 2014 Fiona M. Hollands, Ph.D. Devayani Tirthali, Ed.D. Center for Benefit-Cost Studies of Education Teachers College, Columbia University Table of Contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Purpose of the Study and Intended Audience .............................................................................................. 6 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 18 Methods ...................................................................................................................................................... 22 What is a MOOC? Definitions and Characteristics ...................................................................................... 25 Definition of “MOOC” ............................................................................................................................. 25 Characteristics of MOOCs ....................................................................................................................... 30 Origins of the cMOOC: George Siemens ................................................................................................. 31 Origins of the cMOOC: Stephen Downes ................................................................................................ 33 Origins of the Modern MOOC (xMOOC): Article contributed by Andrew Ng and Jennifer Widom ...... 34 MOOC Derivatives ................................................................................................................................... 48 How and Why are Institutions Engaging with MOOCs? .............................................................................. 49 Goal 1: Extending Reach and Access ........................................................................................................... 53 Case 1: Virology for the Masses: Vincent Racaniello, Columbia University ............................................ 63 Case 2: Developmental Education MOOCs: Cuyahoga Community College’s Pre-Algebra CCC ............. 65 Goal 2: Building and Maintaining Brand ..................................................................................................... 67 Case 3: MOOCs to Increase Visibility: American Museum of Natural History MOOC Initiative ............. 71 Case 4: MOOCs for Recruitment: Academic Partnerships MOOC2Degree Initiative ............................. 72 Goal 3: Improving Economics: Reducing Costs or Increasing Revenues ..................................................... 74 Potential Cost Savings from MOOCs ....................................................................................................... 75 MOOCs as a Source of Revenue .............................................................................................................. 81 Case 5: Georgia Tech’s Online Master of Science in Computer Science Program .................................. 87 Goal 4: Improving Educational Outcomes .................................................................................................. 90 Case 6: Course Re-design to a Mastery-Based Model: Michael Cima, MIT .......................................... 100 Case 7: Re-designing Introduction to Circuit Analysis: Khosrow Ghadiri, San José State University .... 103 Goal 5: Innovation in Teaching and Learning ........................................................................................... 106 Case 8: Maximizing the Use of Technology in Learning: University of Oklahoma ................................ 110 Goal 6: Research on Teaching and Learning ............................................................................................. 112 Case 9: RELATE at MIT ........................................................................................................................... 119 Examples of Research being Conducted with MOOCs.............................................................................. 121 Types of Data Available from MOOCs ....................................................................................................... 127 Where are we with Data Mining, Learning Analytics, and MOOCs? ........................................................ 130 Resource Requirements and Costs of MOOCs .......................................................................................... 134 Hollands & Tirthali: MOOCs: Expectations and Reality May 2014 2 Case 10: Cost Analysis for Development and Delivery of Connectivism and Connected Knowledge (a cMOOC) ................................................................................................................................................. 141 Case 11: Costs of MOOC Production at a Large Midwestern University ............................................. 144 Case 12: American Museum of Natural History MOOC Initiative: Resource Requirements and Expected Benefits.................................................................................................................................. 146 Case 13: Time-by-Task and Cost Analysis for Big Data in Education Development and Delivery ........ 148 Where are MOOCs Going over the Next Five Years? ................................................................................ 152 I. How MOOCs will Evolve as Courses ................................................................................................... 155 II. How MOOCs could Affect the Economic Model of Higher Education .............................................. 160 III. How MOOCs can Facilitate Relationships among Institutions ......................................................... 164 Conclusions and Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 167 References ................................................................................................................................................ 171 Appendices ................................................................................................................................................ 180 Appendix I: Institutional Affiliations and Roles of Interviewees ........................................................... 180 Appendix II: MOOCs: Expectations and Reality Interview Protocol ...................................................... 181 Appendix III: What Institutions are Doing in the MOOCspace.............................................................. 182 Appendix IV: Costs of Online Video Production .................................................................................... 197 Appendix V: Sample Pre- and Post-MOOC Participant Surveys ............................................................ 200 Appendix VI: List of Interviewees .......................................................................................................... 208 Hollands & Tirthali: MOOCs: Expectations and Reality May 2014 3 List of Tables Table ES 1: Institutional Goals for Developing and Delivering or Using MOOCs .......................................... 8 Table ES 2: Estimated Costs of MOOC Production and Delivery at Four Institutions ................................. 12 Table ES 3: Ideas Raised by Interviewees about MOOCs in the Future of Education................................. 14 Table 1: Institutional Affiliations of Interviewees ....................................................................................... 24 Table 2: Institutional Goals for Developing and Delivering or Using MOOCs ............................................. 50 Table 3: Preliminary Instructional and Support Staffing Plans for Georgia Tech’s OMSCS Program ......... 88 Table 4: Summary Projected Costs and Revenues for Georgia Tech’s OMSCS Program ............................ 89 Table 5: Estimated Costs of MOOC Production and Delivery at Four Institutions ................................... 139 Table 6: Estimated Replication Costs for the First Run of CCK08 and Re-run .......................................... 142 Table 7: Range of Hours Spent per MOOC on Design, Production, and Delivery at a Large Midwestern University .................................................................................................................................................. 144 Table 8: Range of Estimated Personnel Costs per MOOC for Design, Production, and Delivery at a Large Midwestern University .............................................................................................................................. 144 Table 9: Personnel Hours Spent by AMNH to Develop Three MOOCs ..................................................... 147 Table 10: Personnel Costs for Big Data in Education Development and Delivery .................................... 150 Table 11: Estimated Replication Costs of Big Data in Education under Various Assumptions................. 151 Table 12: Professional Productivity Changes as a Result of Time Devoted to Big Data in Education ...... 151 Table 13: Ideas Raised by Interviewees about MOOCs in the Future of Education ................................. 154 Table A.1 Institutional Affiliations and Roles of Interviewees