DEMOCRACY’S PLIGHT IN THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBOURHOOD DEMOCRACY’S PLIGHT IN THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBOURHOOD STRUGGLING TRANSITIONS AND PROLIFERATING DYNASTIES MICHAEL EMERSON AND RICHARD YOUNGS (EDITORS) LEILA ALIEVA SENEM AYDIN DÜZGIT ALEXANDER BOGOMOLOV HAKIM DARBOUCHE RICHARD GIRAGOSIAN BALAZS JARABIK KRISTINA KAUSCH GEORGE KHUTSISHVILI ELENA KLITSOUNOVA ALEXANDER LYTVYNENKO NEIL J. MELVIN ALINA MUNGIU-PIPPIDI GERGANA NOUTCHEVA VESNA PEŠIĆ NICU POPESCU DINA SHEHATA VITALI SILICKI ANDREW WILSON CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound analytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. CEPS Paperbacks present analysis and views by leading experts on important questions in the arena of European public policy, written in a style geared to an informed but generalist readership. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors writing in a personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect those of CEPS or any other institution with which they are associated. Cover photo: Taken by Serouj on the fifth day of Armenian presidential election protests, the photo shows a peaceful rally at the Opera (Freedom) Square in Yerevan, 24 February 2008. ISBN 978-92-9079-926-9 © Copyright 2009, Centre for European Policy Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Tel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51 e-mail: [email protected] internet: http://www.ceps.eu CONTENTS Preface Richard Youngs .................................................................................................. i 1. The Long and Hazardous Route to Democracy: Introduction and Conclusions Michael Emerson ............................................................................................... 1 Part I. States in or close to the European Union ........................................... 31 2. Bulgaria: Rule of Law Wanted Gergana Noutcheva ......................................................................................... 32 3. Romania: Outsmarting the EU’s Smart Power Alina Mungiu-Pippidi..................................................................................... 41 4. Serbia’s State Capture Vesna Pešić ...................................................................................................... 49 5. Turkey: Internal and External Challenges of Democratisation Senem Aydın Düzgit....................................................................................... 57 Part II. States of the former Soviet Union...................................................... 67 6. Georgia’s Degenerative Transition George Khutsishvili ......................................................................................... 68 7. Ukraine’s Bottom-up Democracy Alexander Bogomolov & Alexander Lytvynenko ............................................ 76 8. Armenia’s Crisis for the Non-Democrats Richard Giragosian.......................................................................................... 84 9. Moldova’s Fragile Pluralism Nicu Popescu & Andrew Wilson..................................................................... 92 10. Russia’s Response: Sovereign Democracy Strikes Back Elena Klitsounova.......................................................................................... 103 11. Azerbaijan: Power in the Petro-State Leila Alieva .................................................................................................... 112 12. Kazakhstan: Modernisation First Neil J. Melvin................................................................................................. 120 13. Belarus: Into the Buffer Zone Balazs Jarabik & Vitali Silicki........................................................................ 130 Part III. From the Arab Mediterranean Region........................................... 139 14. Morocco: Smart Authoritarianism Refined Kristina Kausch ............................................................................................. 140 15. Algeria’s Chequered Democracy Experiment Hakim Darbouche .......................................................................................... 148 16. Egypt and the Retreat of Liberalisation Dina Shehata.................................................................................................. 156 About the Authors............................................................................................. 164 PREFACE n recent years many analysts have focused their attention on an apparent ‘backlash’ against democracy and democracy promotion. I Worldwide there is now a widespread contention that new challenges and obstacles have arisen to further progress in democratisation. FRIDE and CEPS have previously cooperated on exploring the general nature of the ‘backlash’.1 In this volume we turn to a more specific European neighbourhood focus, and explore the general issues relating to democracy’s travails in more detail in the countries to the south and east of the European Union. The underlying question is whether, in an era of democratic pessimism, the European neighbourhood can offer any more optimistic conclusions. Parts of the region remain subject to the gravitational pull of the basic democratic values and fundamental freedoms at the heart of the European Union. Yet even here there are uncertainties over the strength and extent of this pull factor. In the Balkans there remain serious obstacles to achieving well-functioning democratic governance systems, even among new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania. While the European neighbourhood policy proclaims its objective to widen the democratic space beyond its frontiers, and countries such as Georgia and Ukraine have manifest European ambitions, the EU’s unwillingness to extend official membership perspectives dampens the incentives for democratic reforms. The ‘colour revolutions’ have become disappointing experiences. The EU itself suffers from acute problems of reconciling its enlargement and deepening with democratic legitimacy. This dampens the credibility of further expansion. In the EU’s Southern Mediterranean neighbourhood, there have been attempts by France to re-energise the Barcelona process, but here securitisation appears to be the pre-eminent dynamic. 1 P. Burnell & R. Youngs (eds), Democratisation’s New Challenges, London: Routledge, 2009, forthcoming. | i ii | RICHARD YOUNGS In this context we asked a group of experts to write short essays covering fifteen different case studies from across the neighbourhood region, assessing a common range of questions: 1. Is democratisation now in retreat, or just stagnating? Do we risk exaggerating the importance of recent setbacks? Why did the colour revolutions in Eastern Europe stumble, rather than lead to a cascade of imitators? 2. What is happening to the normative appeal of democracy? Are there emerging ideological competitors to liberal politics? Do serious, sustainable alternatives to democracy exist? 3. What is the changing impact of certain structural factors, such as the perceived threat of radical Islam in countries of Muslim culture, corrupt state capture, energy resources and rent-seeking behaviour, and the movement towards multipolarity? How does the financial crisis impact on political trends? 4. How have external democracy promotion efforts evolved and been received? Is international democracy promotion running out of steam? 5. Is the influence of the ‘Europeanisation’ process on democratic practice still advancing? What has been the impact of the slowing of the EU’s enlargement process, alongside the limited scope of its neighbourhood policy? Our chapters address these specific questions in three groups of states. First, those countries in or close to the European Union: Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Turkey. Second, states of the former Soviet Union: Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, Moldova, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Third, three Arab states of the southern Mediterranean: Morocco, Algeria and Egypt. We have leant heavily on our authors to offer short and sharp essays that hone in directly on the most pertinent recent developments and policy implications for European democracy promoters. We are honoured as editors to have been able to assemble a group that includes experts renowned for the analysis of their respective countries. Our aim has been to benefit from this wealth of experience and knowledge to offer accessible accounts to policy-makers and those interested in the general political challenges that today beset the European neighbourhood. PREFACE | iii As will become apparent, our case studies offer no simple, uniform answers to these questions. In an introductory overview, Michael Emerson draws out some of the key points of comparison across our case studies in an attempt to respond to the questions we set our authors. In particular, he distinguishes between those countries struggling with democratic transition, on the one hand, and those more deeply resistant to democratic norms, on the other. The headline conclusions are that very different dynamics are at work in different parts of the neighbourhood; the EU’s traction