South East Dorset Urban Mobility Strategy Modelling Report Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership In partnership with BCP Council and Dorset Council Project number: 60617892 20 November 2020 South East Dorset Urban Mobility Strategy Project number: 60617892 Quality information Prepared by Checked by Verified by Approved by Revision History Revision Revision date Details Authorized Name Position Vs2.0 20.11.2020 Revisions Distribution List # Hard Copies PDF Required Association / Company Name Prepared for: Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership in partnership with BCP Council and Dorset Council AECOM South East Dorset Urban Mobility Strategy Project number: 60617892 Prepared for: Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership 6th Floor, Poole House Fern Barrow Poole Dorset BH12 5BB Prepared by: AECOM Limited 3rd Floor, Portwall Place Portwall Lane Bristol BS1 6NA United Kingdom T: +44 117 901 7000 aecom.com © 2020 AECOM Limited. All Rights Reserved. This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited (“AECOM”) for sole use of our client (the “Client”) in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AECOM. Prepared for: Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership in partnership with BCP Council and Dorset Council AECOM South East Dorset Urban Mobility Strategy Project number: 60617892 Table of Contents 1. Transport Modelling Overview ........................................................................ 1 1.1 Modelling Review .................................................................................................................. 1 South East Dorset Multi-Modal Transport Model (Highway)................................................................... 2 South East Dorset Multi-Modal Transport Model (Public Transport) ....................................................... 9 Bournemouth Town Centre VISSIM Model ......................................................................................... 15 A348 Ringwood Road Paramics Corridor Model ................................................................................. 18 Poole Town Centre Paramics Model................................................................................................... 20 Christchurch Paramics Model ............................................................................................................ 23 1.2 Defining Growth Scenarios .................................................................................................. 25 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Adjusted Core Growth ....................................................................................................................... 25 High and Low Growth ........................................................................................................................ 26 1.3 Explanation of Model Outputs ............................................................................................. 26 Map Areas ........................................................................................................................................ 26 Modelled Time Periods ...................................................................................................................... 27 Maps Areas - Model Outputs Metrics.................................................................................................. 27 Model Statistics ................................................................................................................................. 28 2. Scenario Testing ........................................................................................... 30 2.1 Do-Minimum Scenarios ....................................................................................................... 34 Do-Minimum Scenario - Testing of scenarios without mitigation........................................................... 34 Do-Minimum Model Outputs .............................................................................................................. 35 Explanation of Do-Minimum Model Outputs ........................................................................................ 64 2.2 Do-Something Scenarios .................................................................................................... 78 Do-Something Scenarios – Testing of scenarios with interventions...................................................... 78 Do-Something Model Outputs ............................................................................................................ 81 Explanation of Do-Something Model Outputs ................................................................................... 112 2.3 Comparison of Do-Minimum and Do-Something Scenarios ............................................... 126 2.4 High and Low Growth Scenarios ........................................................................................ 187 3. Economic Appraisal .................................................................................... 191 3.1 Economic Assessment ..................................................................................................... 191 Economic Appraisal Overview.......................................................................................................... 191 Annualisation Factors ...................................................................................................................... 191 Travel Time Benefits and Vehicle Operating Costs............................................................................ 192 Collision Appraisal ........................................................................................................................... 192 Scheme Costs and Profile ............................................................................................................... 193 User Classes .................................................................................................................................. 194 Greenhouse Gases ......................................................................................................................... 195 Travel Time Benefits and Vehicle Operating Costs............................................................................ 195 Monetised Environmental Assessment Results................................................................................. 195 Transport Economic Efficiency ......................................................................................................... 195 Public Accounts............................................................................................................................... 196 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits ........................................................................................ 197 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 198 3.2 Wider Economic Impacts .................................................................................................. 199 Overview of Wider Economic Impacts .............................................................................................. 199 Wider Economic Impact Appraisal Methodology ............................................................................... 199 Wider Economic Impact Appraisal Results ....................................................................................... 200 Agglomeration Impacts .................................................................................................................... 200 Labour Market Impacts from More/Less People Working .................................................................. 200 Prepared for: Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership in partnership with BCP Council and Dorset Council AECOM South East Dorset Urban Mobility Strategy Project number: 60617892 List of Appendices ................................................................................................. 202 Figures Figure 1.1: Extent of Main Study Area in SEDMMM............................................................................................ 2 Figure 1.2: Zoning System in SED_H ................................................................................................................ 4 Figure 1.3: Network coding within SED_H.......................................................................................................... 6 Figure 1.4: Structure of data used to create trip matrix ....................................................................................... 6 Figure 1.5: Extent of Main Study Area in SEDMMM.......................................................................................... 10 Figure 1.6: Modelled rail lines .......................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 1.7: Zoning system in SED_PT ............................................................................................................. 12 Figure 1.8: Fare zones within the main study area ..........................................................................................