Marketplace Update Erasmo Rojas Director, Latin America & Caribbean [email protected] Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 # 1 Some Latin America indicators end 2009 • Wireless users: 509 million • Mobile penetration: 86% • Prepaid market share: 83% • Average ARPU: US $ 14 • Data as % of service revenues in Q3 2009: 17% (28% in US) Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 2 1 www.3gamericas.org Latin American Wireless Technology Market Shares December 2008 December 2009 Market Shares GSM- GSM- UMTS- UMTS- HSPA iDEN HSPA TDMA iDEN TDMA SubscriptionsMarket Share Subscriptions Market Share GSM‐UMTS‐HSPA 400 M 88% GSM‐UMTS‐HSPA 465 M 91% CDMA 42 M 9% CDMA 35 M 7% iDEN 6 M 1% iDEN 7 M 1% TDMA 6 M 1% TDMA 2 M 0% Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ , Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 3 December 2009 1 www.3gamericas.org Latin American Wireless Technology Growth Subscriptions (Millions) 500 509 Million Total Subscriptions 455 Million Total Subscriptions 465 M 400 400 M 300 16% Annual Growth 200 100 17% Annual Loss 12 M 0 42 M 35 M 9 M DecJan‐‐082008 Dec Jan‐‐092009 *Other Includes iDEN and TDMA Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 4 1 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, December 2009 www.3gamericas.org Top Ten Wireless Markets in Latin America End 2009 Subscriptions (Millions) Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 5 1 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ April 2010 www.3gamericas.org HSPA in Latin America & Caribbean 52 networks in service in 24 countries Panama French West Indies Puerto Rico Dominican Republic • Claro • Outremer Telecom • AT&T • Claro • Movistar • Claro • Orange Mexico Bermuda • Telcel Jamaica • M3 Wireless Aruba • Claro • Movistar Nicaragua • SETAR US Virgin • Claro • LIME Islands Guatemala • AT&T • Claro Venezuela Brazil • Tigo • Digitel • Brasil Telecom Honduras • Movistar • Claro El Salvador • Claro • CTBC • Claro • Tigo • Oi • Tigo • Sercomtel Costa Rica • TIM Brasil • ICE • VIVO Colombia • Comcel Peru • Movistar Paraguay • Claro Bolivia • Tigo • Claro • Movistar • Tigo • Telecom Personal • Nextel Ecuador • Tigo • Porta Chile • Movistar • Entel Movil Argentina Uruguay • Claro • Claro • ANCEL • Movistar • Telecom Personal • Claro • Movistar • Movistar Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 6 1 Source: Public Announcements, Regulators and Informa Telecoms & Media, March 2010 www.3gamericas.org Voice vs Data in Select Latin Markets Subscriptions (Millions) % = HSPA of total wireless subscriptions 7.7%* Data Voice 2% 4% 2.5% 0.7% 1% 4% 7% Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 7 1 Source: Regulators and Public Information: *: as per latest results from ANATEL www.3gamericas.org Smartphone Penetration Forecast Percentage (Except Brazil) Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 8 1 Source: Deutsche Bank Securities, 29 March 2010 www.3gamericas.org Smartphone Unit Growth Forecast (Except Brazil) (Units, by Millions) by (Units, Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 9 1 Source: Deutsche Bank Securities, 29 March 2010 www.3gamericas.org 3G Device Growth in Brazil HSPA EV‐DO Modems 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2Q 2009 3Q 2009 4Q 2009 1Q 2010 Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 10 1 Sources: Anatel (regulator) and Teleco (Consultant) www.3gamericas.org 3G Devices in Argentina 2007‐2010 1,370,000 660,000 548,000 Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 11 1 Source: Carrier and Associates www.3gamericas.org Global ARPU Trends $ Mobile Lifestyle Mobile BB ARPU Margin Pressure Network Traffic 2005 2008 2011 Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 12 1 Source: GSMA, December 2009 www.3gamericas.org Mobile Traffic will keep Growing Voice services will continue growing but information‐based services will grow much more 3.5 Other information‐ based services 3.0 Downloads 2.5 year TV/Streaming per 2.0 Messages 1.5 Mobile PC Gigabytes Video 1.0 0.5 Voice 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 13 1 Source: 3GPP www.3gamericas.org Embedded Mobile Broadband Consumer Healthcare Government Automotive Utilities Electronics Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 14 1 www.3gamericas.org 2014 Global 3G Subscription Forecast 1.86 Billion 56% LTELTE 4% 128 M 10% EV-DO 340 M 3% Mobile WiMAX 27% 89 M UMTS UMTS 908 Million 3GPP technologies (UMTS+HSPA+LTE): 87%, CDMA: 10%, Mobile WiMAX: 3% Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 15 1 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, Mar 2010 www.3gamericas.org Latin America Challenges • No spectrum made available for advanced mobile broadband services • Governments are promoting new entrants by using spectrum caps • High taxes for wireless services and equipment • No spectrum auction for 4G; likely bands are 2,5 GHz, 1.7/2.1 GHz and 700 MHz • Low broadband penetration (less than 10%) Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 16 1 www.3gamericas.org Obrigado! Erasmo Rojas Director, Latin America & Caribbean [email protected] Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010 # 1.