ISSN 2079-8555 e-ISSN 2310-0524 BALTIC REGION 2019 Volume 11 № 1 Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University Press 2019 1 BALTIC Editorial council REGION Prof. Andrei P. Klemeshev, rector of the Immanuel Kant Baltic Fe- deral University, Russia ( Editor in Chief); Prof. Gennady M. Fedo- 2019 rov, director of the Institute of Environmental Management, Terri- torial Development and Urban Construction, Immanuel Kant Baltic Volume 11 Federal University, Russia (Deputy Chief Editor); Prof. Dr Joachim von Braun, director of the Center for Development Research № 1 (ZEF), Professor, University of Bonn, Germany; Prof. Irina M. Bu- sygina, Department of Comparative Politics, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), Russia; Prof. Ale- Kaliningrad : ksander G. Druzhinin, director of the North Caucasian Research I. Kant Baltic Federal Institute of Economic and Social Problems, Southern Federal Uni- versity, Russia; Prof. Mikhail V. Ilyin, Prof. of the Department of University Press, 2019. Comparative Politics, Moscow State Institute of International Re- 147 р. lations (MGIMO University), Russia; Dr Pertti Joenniemi, senior researcher, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland, Fin- The journal land; Dr Nikolai V. Kaledin, head of the Department of Regional was established in 2009 Policy & Political Geography, Saint Petersburg State University, Russia (co-chair); Prof. Konstantin K. Khudolei, head of the De- Frequency: partment of European Studies, Faculty of International Relations, quarterly Saint Petersburg State University, Russia; Dr Kari Liuhto, director in the Russian and English of the Pan-European Institute, Turku, Finland; Prof. Vladimir A. Ko- languages per year losov, head of the Laboratory for Geopolitical Studies, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; Prof. Gennady V. Kre- Founders tinin, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Russia; Prof. Vla- dimir A. Mau, rector, Russian Presidential Academy of National Immanuel Kant Baltic Economy and Public Administration, Russia; Prof. Andrei Yu. Mel- Federal University ville, dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, National Research University — Higher School of Economics, Russia; Prof. Nikolai Saint Petersburg M. Mezhevich, Department of European Studies, Faculty of Interna- State University tional Relations, Saint Petersburg State University, Russia; Prof. Tadeusz Palmowski, head of the Department of Regional Develop- Editorial Office ment, University of Gdansk, Poland; Prof. Andrei E. Shastitko, head of the Department of Competitive and Industrial Policy, Moscow Address: State University, Russia; Prof. Aleksander A. Sergunin, Department 2 Zoologicheskaya St., of History and Theory of International Relations, Saint Petersburg Kaliningrad, 236000, Russia State University, Russia; Prof. Eduardas Spiriajevas, head of the Cen- tre of Transborder Studies, Klaipeda University (Lithuania); Prof. Managing editor: Daniela Szymańska, head of the Department of Urban Studies and Tatyana Kuznetsova Regional Development, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, [email protected] Poland; Dr Viktor V. Voronov, Leading Research Fellow, Institute Tel.: +7 4012 59-55-43 of Social Studies, Daugavpils University, Latvia. Fax: +7 4012 46-63-13 www.journals.kantiana.ru The opinions expressed in the articles are private opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the founders of the journal © I. Kant Baltic Federal University, 2019 2 Ä. Ç. äÛÁ̈ӂ, Ç. Ä. éÎÂ̘ÂÌÍÓ CONTENTS Economics and Space Baburin V. L. The resistance of the greater Baltic region states to market cycle changes ................................................................................. 4 Tretyakova E. A. Environmental intensity of economic growth in the Baltic Sea region .......................................................................................... 14 Mikhaylov A. S. Coastal agglomerations and the transformation of national innovation spaces ........................................................................ 29 Politics Busygina I. M., Onishchenko A. D. The Polish minority in the Republic of Lithuania: internal and external factors .............................................. 43 Kiknadze V. G., Mironyuk D. A., Kretinin G. V. The military and politi- cal situation in the Baltic region in the late 20th/early 21st centuries: the prospects of ‘uneasy peace’ ................................................................ 60 Society Simaeva I. N., Budarina A. O., Sundh S. Inclusive education in Russia and the Baltic countries: a comparative analysis ................................... 76 Manakov A. G., Dementiev V. S. Territorial structure of the denomina- tional space of the South-East Baltic ........................................................ 92 Wendt J. A., Buhaș R., Herman G. V. Eхperience of the Baile-Felix tourist system (Romania) for the protection and promotion of the grey seal as a brend on the Hel Peninsular (Poland) ............................ 109 Reviews Security Agenda for the Baltic Region: State, Society, Human (V. N. Konyshev, A. I. Kubyshkin) ............................................................ 137 Baltiс Region. 2019. Vol. 11, № 1 / ISSN 2079-8555, e-ISSN 2310-0524 3 Economics and Space ECONOMICS AND SPACE A non-linear change process is a specific RESISTANCE feature of a poorly regulated market econo- OF THE GREATER my. However, many researchers have shown BALTIC REGION STATES that different economic sectors do not re- spond to market cycles in a similar way. TO MARKET CYCLE Regional economic systems are a combina- CHANGES tion of many sectors, therefore a hypothesis about the correlation between the stability of 1 V. L. Baburin regional economies and market cycles is ex- amined. The study is conducted using the Baltic countries (hereinafter referred to as Greater Baltic Region, GBR) as an example. GBR countries have been classified into highly stable, relatively stable, unstable, and highly unstable based on the study of the stability of national economies to global cy- cle processes. The GDP dynamics of the countries were compared to GDP cycles of the US and the EU, which are the main fi- nancial centres. To understand the reasons, the sectoral structure of GDP is additionally considered. The results allow the author to classify of GBR countries according to the structure of economic sectors and the stabil- ity of the regional economy. Keywords: market cycles, GDP dy- namics, sectoral structure, stability, sen- sitivity Introduction Available country-specific GDP time series make it possible to eval- uate changes in the global economic ¹ Lomonosov Moscow State University, situation from the 1970s onwards. 1 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991 However, in view of the dramatic Russia. changes that took place after the col- Submitted on September 27, 2018 lapse of the socialist order and the demise of the USSR, I will not con- doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2019-1-1 sider time series dating before 1991. © Baburin V. L., 2019 Among other things, this approach 4B altiс Region. 2019. Vol. 11, № 1. Р. 4—13. V. L. Baburin will be instrumental in its way of comparing the old and the new capitalist countries of the Greater Baltic region. This region attracts special interest because the Soviet-time spatial division of labour between disparate economies is being ‘digested’ at different rates across the area. Moreover, the type of capitalist transition model adopted by a post-Soviet country indirectly points to the features of its national political system. The problem of economic cycles has been studied for many decades. For instance, in an earlier work (Baburin, 2018), I consid- er the Juglar-Marx mid-term cycles. Initially 10—11 years long, they now contracted to 5—7 years under the impact of technologi- cal change. Other popular concepts include Braudel’s secular cy- cles, the Kondratiev-Schumpeter long waves, and the Kuznets curve. Taken together, they describe the complex multi-cycle char- acter of the GDP curve. This study relies on the theory of cyclo-genetic dynamics (Ya- kovets, 1999; Subbeto, 1994; Baburin 2010, 2012, 2014, and others), which, in a certain sense, is a precursor of the path dependence theory. It focuses on the influence of the regions’ inherited eco- nomic structure on their current development. In this article, I will discuss how regional economies react to the Juglar—Marx cycles. Soviet economic geography was the product of a rather isolat- ed and self-sufficient economic system, which was planned and thus unaffected by global market cycles. However, Petr Baklanov used the category of fluctuating optimum in considering the un- certainty of location in terms of economic processes. This category reflects the essential impossibility of selecting a location that will be optimal over a long time because the weights of factors at play constantly change. At the same time, specialisation and exchange in the frame- work of spatial division of labour have always merited the atten- tion of Russian (and earlier, Soviet) economic geographers. Among them are N. N. Baransky and N. N. Kolosovsky, A. T. Khrushchev, M. D. Sharygin, N. Yu. Glady and A. I. Chistobaev, O. I. Shabliy, and many other geographers and economists. In the post-Soviet period, when Russia was becoming increasingly integrated into the world economy, a community of experts in regional economics (A. N. Granberg, A. E. Probst, M. K. Bandman, I. V. Grishina, and others) turned to the competitiveness of regions and their ability to bypass depression