PNNL-21073 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 China’s Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment J Eom P Kyle LE Clark PL Patel SH Kim January 2012 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY operated by BATTELLE for the UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Printed in the United States of America Available to DOE and DOE contractors from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, P.O. Box 62, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062; ph: (865) 576-8401 fax: (865) 576-5728 email: [email protected] Available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161 ph: (800) 553-6847 fax: (703) 605-6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm This document was printed on recycled paper. (9/2003) PNNL-21073 China’s Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment J Eom GP Kyle LE Clarke PL Patel SH Kim January 2012 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington 99352 ABSTRACT We present here a detailed, service-based model of China’s building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long- term pathways of China’s building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China’s building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China’s building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy. Keywords: China buildings; Building energy modeling; Scenario Analysis; Integrated assessment model; Electrification Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 2. Background .............................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Current Building Energy Use in China ............................................................................ 4 2.2 Projections of Building Energy Consumption in China.................................................. 6 2.3 GCAM Integrated Assessment Model Core Assumptions for Analysis ......................... 7 2.4 Core Assumptions of the GCAM Reference Scenario ..................................................... 8 3 Structure of the Building Model ........................................................................................... 9 3.1 Overview of the Building Model Structure ..................................................................... 9 3.2 Urban and Rural China ................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Building Floorspace ........................................................................................................ 14 3.4 Representing Building Energy Service Demands ......................................................... 18 3.5 Technology Assumptions ............................................................................................... 22 3.6 Other Design Issues ........................................................................................................ 23 3.6.1 Varying Service and Fuel Preferences ................................................................ 23 3.6.2 Traditional Biomass ............................................................................................ 23 3.6.3 District Heating .................................................................................................... 24 4 Results ..................................................................................................................................... 26 4.1 Overview of Scenarios .................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Building Energy Consumption in the Scenarios ........................................................... 28 4.3 Fuel Mix in the Scenarios ............................................................................................... 29 4.4 Evolution of Building Service Demands and Fuel Uses in the Scenarios ................... 33 4.5 CO2 Emissions and Policy Costs ..................................................................................... 35 5 Conclusions and Policy Insights ......................................................................................... 37 References ..................................................................................................................................... 40 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................ 44 1. Introduction It is widely recognized that any attempt to address climate change will ultimately have to include China. The Chinese economy has grown at a remarkable rate of 9-10% per year since 1990s, and expectations are that it will continue to grow rapidly. Energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions have increased dramatically as a result of this growth. China consumed almost three times as much energy in 2006 as it did in 1990. China is now the second largest energy consumer after the U.S. China is 1 now the biggest CO2 emitter in the world [1-2]. Buildings are an important contributor to China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Measures to address energy consumption and associated emissions from the buildings sector will therefore be an important part of any strategy to reduce China’s CO2 emissions. In 2007, China’s buildings sector consumed 31% of China’s total final energy [1]. China is also the second largest building energy user in the world, ranked 1st in residential energy consumption and 3rd in commercial energy consumption [1]. In 2005, China’s buildings sector emitted roughly 0.4 Gton of CO2 for primary fuel uses; indirect electricity emissions included, the emissions amounted to about 1.1 Gton of CO2, or 18% of 2 China’s total fossil and industrial CO2 emissions. As China continues its socioeconomic transformation, energy consumption and associated emissions from the buildings sector will undoubtedly increase. The topic of this paper is this evolution of the Chinese buildings sector through mid-century and beyond, and the potential influence of socioeconomic factors as well as climate and energy policies on this evolution. Understanding the potential nature and magnitude of this evolution is challenging. Indeed, there is indeed tremendous variation even in short-term projections of building energy consumption in China (see, for example, Li [3]). There are many factors that contribute to this uncertainty, including the rate of population and economic growth, the rate of transformation in China from a rural to urban economy, the increase in floorspace associated with economic growth, the nature of the building services (e.g., air conditioning, plug loads) that Chinese will demand in the future, and the technologies that will be available to provide these services. This paper explores the long-term evolution of China’s building sector through the construction and application of a technologically detailed, service-based model of China’s building sector nested in the 1 There is some degree of recognition by the Chinese of their role in climate mitigition. As part of the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, China pledged to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 relative to 2005. China’s economic planning department has decided to develop a so-called “Low-Carbon Economy”, which would require various measures ranging from expanding non-fossil