Joint Military Intelligence College GUTJAHR THE INTELLIGENCE ARCHIPELAGO GUTJAHR THE INTELLIGENCE THE INTELLIGENCE ARCHIPELAGO The Community’s Struggle to Reform in the Globalized Era TEL IN LIG Y E R N A C T E I L C I O M L L T E N G I E O J 1962 Melanie M. H. Gutjahr TEL IN LIG Y E R N A C ISBN 1-932946-03-9 T E PCN 55646 I L C I O M L L T E N G I E O J 1962 The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves Intelligence Community capabilities for policy-level and operational consumers The Intelligence Archipelago: The Community’s Struggle to Reform in the Globalized Era This product has been reviewed by senior experts from academia, industry and government, and has been approved for unrestricted distribution by the Office of Freedom of Information and Security Review, Washington Headquarters Services. It is available to the public through the National Technical Information Service (www.ntis.gov). In this book, Melanie Gutjahr addresses the documentation surrounding the history of U.S. national intelligence reform efforts, going back almost to the beginning of post-WWII intelligence. She examines the question of whether the Intelligence Community appears capable of reshaping itself quickly and effectively enough to cope with 21st century expressions of globalization. Finding a negative answer to that question, she goes on to address the prospect that Congress may generate the wherewithal to effect a transformation in intelligence matters by building on the Intelligence Reform Act of 2004. [email protected], Editor and Director Center for Strategic Intelligence Research Library of Congress Control Number 2005924958 ISBN 1-932946-03-9 THE INTELLIGENCE ARCHIPELAGO The Community’s Struggle to Reform in the Globalized Era Melanie M. H. Gutjahr In g ic t e e g ll t ii a g e r n tt c SS c ee rr R R o o e e f f s s e e r r a a e e t r t r n c n Joint Military c e h e h C Intelligence College C WASHINGTON, DC May 2005 The views expressed in this book are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government i CONTENTS Acknowledgements . vii Commentaries . ix Art Grant, Raytheon Company Russell E. Travers, National CounterTerrorism Center Review Essay . xi Failures, Fallacies and Fixes: Posturing Intelligence for the Challenges of Globalization, by Russell E. Travers Author’s Preface . xxv 1. Introduction . 1 The Issue . 4 Methodology and Limitations . 4 Significance of Research . 5 2. Fundamental Concepts . 7 What is Intelligence? . 7 What is Intelligence Reform? . 9 What is Oversight?. 10 What is Globalization?. 13 3. Past: Historical Perspective: Shapers of the Intelligence Community During the Cold War (1945-1989). 17 National Security Act of 1947 . 17 The Bipolar Environment. 21 Intelligence Community in the 20th Century. 24 Cold War Intelligence Reform 1947-1989. 27 Cold-War Era Reform Efforts in Retrospect . 32 4. Recent Past: Stalled Reform (1990-2000) . 33 Post-Cold War Environment . 34 Post-Cold War Intelligence Reform . 40 iii Post-Cold War Reform in Context . 48 Hart-Rudman Commission 1999-2001 . 49 5. Present: Post 9/11 Strategies for Reform . 57 9/11 Surprise? . 57 Joint Inquiry Commission . 68 9/11 Commission . 71 Joint Inquiry and 9/11 Commission Recommendations . 74 Luminaries Respond to 9/11 Committee Recommendations . 80 Reform Effects of Presidential Executive Order . 85 6. Intelligence in the Post-9/11 World . 89 Globalization and the Intelligence Community . 89 Information Revolution and the Intelligence Community . 113 7. 21st Century: The Rocky Road Ahead . 129 A Changed Community Since 9/11? . 129 Post-9/11 Community-Wide Issues . 134 The Way Ahead: The Networked Community . 146 Horizontal Integration and the IC . 151 Congressional Oversight and the IC . 158 8. Post 9/11 Intelligence Reform . 163 Protecting the Turf . 163 Passage of Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 . 167 Congressional Oversight . 173 DNI and Community Relationships . 175 Analysis . 177 9. Conclusion . 181 iv Appendix A — National Security Act of 1947, as amended . 187 Appendix B — Cold-War Intelligence Reform 1945-1989 . 191 Appendix C — Post Cold-War Intelligence Reform 1990-2000 . 205 Appendix D — Talking Heads Intelligence Reform . 219 Appendix E — Post 9/11 Intelligence Reform Reports . 227 Appendix F — GAO Human Capital Management Reference Tables . 249 Appendix G — Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 . 251 Acronyms . 259 Bibliography . 263 About the Author . 283 v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author gratefully acknowledges the following individuals who made this research project possible. The senior leadership of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency who selected me as the NGA participant in the FY2004 Intelligence Research Fellows Program at the Center for Strategic Intelligence Research (CSIR) at the Joint Mil- itary Intelligence College (JMIC), and colleagues in my assigned organization, NGA/Enterprise directorate (Information Management), who promoted my application. Mr. Art Grant, LTC (U.S. Army, Ret.), former House Intelligence Committee staff member and currently Vice President, National Intelligence, Space and Geospatial Programs for the Raytheon Company; and Russ Travers, Deputy Director, National CounterTerrorism Center, who reviewed the manuscript and provided commentaries. Dr. Russell Swenson, Director of the CSIR. His editorial comments and direc- tion have been invaluable to the completion of this project. The library research staffs at the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, who provided source assistance. An anonymous NGA analyst, who provided map reconstruction assistance. Lastly, the author would like to express a heartfelt appreciation to my family— Hannah and Joshua Gutjahr—for their continued support and encouragement. vii COMMENTARIES In her research project, The Intelligence Archipelago: The Community’s Strug- gle to Reform in the Globalized era, Ms. Melanie Gutjahr has made a significant contribution to our understanding of how Intelligence is conducted, the future implications for our national security if changes do not occur, and the role the recently enacted “Intelligence and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004” will play in helping to determine the future of U.S. Intelligence. Her diligent research com- bined with her personal knowledge of the arcane and esoteric world of intelli- gence provides the basis for her clear analysis and strong conclusions. This is an excellent body of work, worthy of study by anyone interested in U.S. Intelligence and interested in making a world class Intelligence Community even more effec- tive than it is today. Her description of the history of the U.S. Intelligence Community and efforts to reform it since World War II provides the necessary context for understanding the Community’s current organization and the public and private calls for change. She describes in detail the most significant attempts to reform U.S. Intelligence and the responses of career Intelligence officers. Her descriptions show recurring themes throughout the period suggesting that important shortcomings have repeatedly not been addressed. It is this repetitive resistance to change that makes her historical narrative both troubling and sad. In many instances, it appears that career intelligence officers respond to criticisms by asserting that change has occurred after the critiques were developed and therefore suggestions for reform apply to a Community that no longer exists. It certainly is true the intelligence domain is very dynamic and today is different than yesterday, this week is rather different than last week, and this month is very different than six months ago. But it is quite clear that the recurring themes demonstrate a failure to acknowledge problems and to create a future that addresses the fundamental shortcomings of today, yesterday, last month, last year–and tomorrow. The career intelligence officer response to arguably the nation’s worst strategic surprise on September 11th appears to be no different than responses in the past: you don’t understand intelligence, leave us alone, we will fix it on our own. Ms. Gutjahr’s work pro- vides the essential understanding of this context. Her analysis of the implications if changes do not occur is very important. Moreover, her understanding of the effects of “globalization” and the significance of the digital age are of great value in appreciating the urgency for reform. She assesses the imperfect “Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004” and the opportunity it gives the nation to “get it right.” Unfortunately, she does not reveal unbridled optimism about the future of intelligence reform. Career intelligence officer responses to the new law—and other agents for ix change—so far appear to be no different than they have been in past. Nonethe- less, as she advises: Reform must be construed as a Community-wide, never-ending series of process improvement tasks. Processes and procedures that guarantee success against our opponent today will be ill-advised as we face tomorrow’s enemy. The Community must maintain a constant watch against complacency. As Ms. Gutjahr notes, much remains to be done and the only people who can get it done are the career intelligence officers who are never seen publicly and have devoted their lives to keeping us all safe. The intelligence archipelago must become a sea without islands. Art Grant Vice President, National Intelligence, Space and Geospatial Programs, the Raytheon Company Ms. Gutjahr makes a valuable contribution to what has been, thus far, a woe- fully inadequate discussion of intelligence reform. Despite high profile Commis- sions, legislative initiatives, and more focus on the Community than has existed in many years, the quality of the debate remains shallow and confused. Unfortu- nately, the various external efforts to date have done a far better job of chronicling intelligence failures (a valuable contribution to be sure) than they have of recom- mending workable solutions.