News Highlights – Thursday Oct 22, 2020

COVIN-19 Pandemic Region Infections Deaths Recoveries Globe 41.541 million 1.137 million 30.939 million Africa 1.685 million 40,546 1.384 million Ethiopia 91,118 1,384 44,506 Follow live updates on worldometers.info/coronavirus/ • AstraZeneca, J&J could resume COVID vaccine trials this week - Aljazeera Moncef Slaoui, the head of , said he expects the U.S. trials of vaccines made by AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson to restart as soon as this week. The two companies developing Covid-19 vaccines backed by Operation Warp Speed temporarily halted their trials because participants fell ill, slowing down the race for a shot to halt the pandemic. J&J paused its trial last week when a participant got sick. AstraZeneca’s trial paused last month after a woman in the U.K. study developed neurological symptoms and the U.S. Food & Drug Administration has yet to clear the study to resume in the U.S. “It’s for the FDA to announce and decide but I understand that this is imminent,” Slaoui said in an interview when asked if AstraZeneca could resume its trial this week. “I hope that the J&J trial also will restart later this week.” Both vaccines use a viral vector based on adenoviruses to stimulate an immune response. “I have not seen data at all that suggests these platform technologies have a problem,” he said in an interview. Johnson & Johnson is testing its vaccine in as many as 60,000 volunteers from Peru to South Africa. U.S. regulators have not put a clinical hold on J&J’s trial. British drugmaker Astra and partner the University of Oxford last month temporarily stopped tests of its own vaccine candidate after a trial participant fell ill. While the Astra study has remained halted in the U.S., where it is being evaluated by regulators, it has resumed in a number of other countries. Other types of vaccines employing even newer, RNA-based technologies are being tested as inoculations against covid. The U.S. government, through Operation Warp Speed, has been funding the rapid development of vaccines in to stem the tide of this deadly pandemic. The compression of vaccine development time lines, which typically take years, has heightened concerns around vaccine safety. ______GERD News • 'EU wants successful outcomes' of GERD negotiations: European ambassador to - Al-Ahram The European Union (EU) ambassador to Egypt, Christian Berger, has said the EU wants successful outcomes of the ongoing negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and over the

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 disputed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Berger expressed support to the dam negotiations, adding the European Union will wait behind and support the GERD discussions. "We welcome the continued engagement of Egypt in these discussions and all the other parties that take part in the negotiations and of course, we support very much efforts of the chair of the African Union," he said at a conference on Wednesday on the sideline of the Cairo Water Week (CWW) event. Cairo and Khartoum have been in talks with Addis Ababa for years now to reach a legally binding agreement on the filling and operating of the massive hydropower dam Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile. The recent round of talks mediated by the African Union (AU), and observed by the US, the EU, the AU and the AU Commission, has come to a close in late August without reaching a consensus on the legal and technical points of contention. The AU had stepped in the near decade-long dispute as the previous rounds of negotiations deadlocked more than once. Berger said the EU wants successful outcomes of these discussions, while assuring necessity of the efforts exerted by the African Union in this respect, which he described as an "important role." "We as the European Union will continue to observe the talks," noted the ambassador. During a phone call last week, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi reaffirmed to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, the current chair of the AU, the Egyptian constants regarding the resumption of tripartite negotiations, expressing Egypt's rejection of any action or procedure that violates Egypt's rights in the Nile waters. Cairo fears the project will significantly cut its crucial water supplies from the River Nile, while Sudan has concerns on how the reservoir will be managed. Ethiopia says the massive project, which it hopes will make it Africa’s largest power exporter, is key to its development efforts. During Wednesday's event, Berger said Egypt is a strategic partner to the EU and the Cairo Water week (CWW) event demonstrates this partnership. The CWW, being held currently in the Egyptian capital for the third year in a row, is organized by the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation in cooperation with the EU delegation in Egypt. Berger shed light on areas of cooperation between the European body and Egypt especially in water desalination purification fields, noting that it has invested in Egypt up to 500 million euros, or some 3 billion euros if the loans provided by the union are added. The European ambassador said Egypt has the potential to be an important regional hub in transferring knowledge in fields of irrigation, water and how to make water a sustainable resource. According to Berger, around 12.000 km of water and wastewater network is to be constructed, and nearly 130 wastewater treatment plants and 75 water treatment plants will be expanded or newly constructed. Since 2007, the EU-Egyptian cooperation in the water sector stretches over a wide portfolio of programmes covering 14 Egyptian Governorates. ______

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Ethiopia • Parliament to Take Measures Against Tigray Representatives Who Avoid Scheduled Meeting-Fana, Addis Standard Administrative measures will be taken against representatives of Tigray regional state who fail to attend scheduled parliament session, said the Speaker. All representatives except one were absent during the two meetings that the parliament had conducted recently, said Tagesse Chafo, Speaker of the parliament. The parliament is extending invitation to them, he said, adding “if they continue to avoid meeting, administrative measures will be taken against them. The Speaker said solution for any problem should come through dialogue and in a legal way, not by breaking the law Regarding the upcoming general elections, he said the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has finalized more than 90% of preparations for it. Emphasizing the need to make available a level playing field for competing political parties, he added that the readiness of all political parties is also vital to make the election fair and democratic. According to the Speaker, the parliament provided 40-million-birr assistance in cash and kind to people affected by flooding in different parts of the country.

• Afar Revolutionary Party accuses gov’t over “failure of peace agreement”-Borkena The Executive Committee of the Afar Revolutionary Party (which is struggling for the self- determination of Afar people) accuses the regional government of what it called “failure to implement” the peace agreement signed in 2019. In a press statement released on Monday this week, the party says it will not be held responsible for the consequences. The Afar UGUUGUMO signed a Peace Agreement with the Ethiopian government on March 14, 2019, in Eritrea, Asmara, just as other Ethiopian oppositions forces did, following the call for change and reform led by Dr. Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia in 2018. In the press statement the party said “The Regional Authority in the Afar Region never showed any good will to implement the Peace Agreement that we have signed with the FDRE on March 14, 2019. Instead of implementing the Peace Agreement the Afar regional government has imposed upon the Afar UGUUGUMO political marginalization, economic and social deprivation. Our legitimate political demands were rejected. Our civil, political and human rights are systematically denied and violated by the government by preventing us from exercising them. The families and children’s basic rights of our former fighters were denied.” The party also said despite the Afar traditional elders’ tireless effort and encouragement to the implementation of the peace agreement, “their noble efforts are undermined by the Afar government and so the Peace Agreement has failed.” The statement also reads “We are informing the Afar people and those concerned parties in the Federal and the Regional levels our ‘organization’ that the Afar UGUUGUMO cannot be held responsible for the consequences arising out of the gravest violations of the Peace Agreement by the Afar Regional Government.” In conclusion the party said that “we will continue to struggle, together with the Ethiopian peoples

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 for the realizations of the inalienable rights of the Afar people to self-determination, freedom, democracy, justice and good governance.”

• Police in Somali region arrest three senior ONLF regional officials, one official served with warrant- Addis Standard, Hiiraan The police in Somali regional state have detained at least three senior officials of opposition party, Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), between last night and this morning. Mohammed Jigre Gamadiid, ONLF Korahay Zone Chapter Chairman, and his deputy, Tamam Mohammed Mahmoud, were arrested last night, while ONLF’s Godey Town Chapter Chairman, Mohammed Garaad, and the party’s central committee member, Mohammed Ibrahim Mursal, were served with arrest warrants, Abdiahman Mahdi, ONLF Chairman, told Addis Standard. Mohammed Ibrahim Mursal has since been arrested this morning. Last night’s arrests came just two days after a massive rally was held on Sunday October 18 in the city of Qabridahre celebrating the second year anniversary of the historic peace agreement signed between the Ethiopian government & ONLF officials on 21 October 2018 in Asmara, the capital of Eritrea. ONLF had since returned home and is currently a political party registered by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). “We have been talking about the harassment, which we were on the receiving end for the last two years now. The regional government is using tactics of intimidation and harassment to provoke and push us into breaking the peace agreement we signed two years ago,” Abdirahman Mahdi said, adding, “We signed a peace deal with the government and we intend to keep our end of the deal, the question remains what is the regional government doing to keep its end?” The arrests also came in the backdrop of reports of police violence and crackdown on dissent in the region. Addis Standard reported that early in September 2020, 7 civilians were killed in Rasso, Afdheer Zone, Somali region. Accounts of the incident were conflicting with activists laying the blame at the Liyu Police while the regional administration blamed the incident on clan conflict. A similar incident happened in Qabridahare, Korahye Zone, where 11 civilians were injured in the hands of the police, according to eye witnesses; the regional government avoided commenting on the matter. Last night, Farouk Warafa, Somali regional state deputy head in charge of overall Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation Department at the Office of the Regional President, quoted Korahe Zone administration as saying “two ONLF officials accused of vandalism and assault are arrested in [Qabridahare] town.” In a post, Farouk also quoted the regional Government Communication Office as saying “upholding the rule of law is not up for negotiation or comprise”. The ONLF chairman responded by saying, “these are the same tactics and claims they used against us and others for two years because they know they can’t win. I think they were not happy about how people celebrated us in this huge turnout. They know we have the base and support which they don’t have in the region.” Addis Standard’s repeated attempts to seek comments from Abdulrezak Awol, mayor of Qabridahare city, were not successful. The ONLF is one of the oldest rebel groups established in 1984 seeking for Somali region’s greater autonomy

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 and self-administration. The group had been on Ethiopia’s terror list until 2018 when the Ethiopian parliament removed its name off of the list, allowing its members to return and transition into a political party.

• Foreign Affairs State Minister, UAE Ambassador Discuss Investment Prospects in Ethiopia- ENA Foreign Affairs State Minister Tsion Teklu and UAE Ambassador to Ethiopia Mohammed Salem have discussed on Wednesday investment opportunities in Ethiopia for Emirati investors. The diplomats have also discussed the significance of cooperation between stakeholders from both countries to deal with matters of investment relations to create a suitable business environment in Ethiopia. According to Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the two sides have discussed bilateral issues of mutual interest in general and with a particular emphasis on investment opportunities and challenges for UAE investors in the country. During the discussion, State Minister Tsion Teklu said the two countries should scale up their relationship with investments that encourage social responsibility, technology transfer, job creation, and capacity building. UAE Ambassador to Ethiopia, Mohammed Salem said the Ethiopian investment and business environment would be even more attractive with due attention given to weed out bottlenecks to investment.

• Ethiopia, China Forge Strong Relations- Official-Fana Ethiopia and China have forged a strong and close relationship over the past 50 years, and their ties are a good example of Africa-China cooperation, an Ethiopian official has said. Since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1970, their relationship has “transformed massively” with increasing and close cooperation in various fields, Dina Mufti, spokesman for the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, said on Tuesday in an interview with Xinhua. Boosted by the two countries’ key roles under the framework of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) since its inception in 2000, the Ethiopia-China relations have grown in leaps and bounds and “expanded in many fields including economy, politics, security, technology transfer, academia and capacity building,” he said. The two countries agreed to elevate their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation in 2017, further lifting their already close partnership. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Report 2020, China remained the largest foreign direct investment source in Ethiopia in 2019, accounting for about 60% of the newly approved foreign projects in the East African country. As an active participant in the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, a global development plan that involves infrastructure development and trade and investment facilitation aimed at boosting connectivity on a trans-continental scale, Ethiopia’s cooperation with China has improved the country’s infrastructure and “strengthened its industrial establishments,” Ambassador Dina said. “When the two countries face the common health threat of the COVID-19 pandemic, bilateral cooperation has also seen a boost in the medical sector,” he

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 said, adding that both sides have paid great attention to averting the danger from the deadly disease. As China and Ethiopia set to mark the golden jubilee of their ties later this year, Ambassador Dina said his country “is looking forward to further strengthening and upgrading ties with China” and will “make sure the relationship flourishes for good.” ______

Horn of Africa South Sudan • Ex-minister calls for free and fair elections in South Sudan-Sudan Tribune A former South Sudanese Petroleum minister has said free and fair elections will resolve the country’ woes. In an op-ed published on October 21, Ezekiel Lol Gatkouth says the elections should be in line with regional and international conventions, including African Charter on Democracy and Elections. “For this to happen, we must first agree on a process to disarm and rehabilitate armed combatants; for they too have a right to participate in South Sudan’s future, so long as they commit to peace and to a democratic future,” said Gatkouth. He added, “Second, we must complete a credible population census to ensure that every eligible voter is accounted for and duly given the right to cast their ballot,” Gatkouth, a former South Sudanese diplomat to the , called for the need undertake a comprehensive voter registration drive so that the voting population is properly accounted for. “Only after these steps have been completed can we then organize a truly free and fair election – one that will make both our country and the world proud,” he stated. The former minister was one of the groups of the former political detainees jailed and later released for alleged involvement in a coup that saw civil war break out in South Sudan in December 2013. Gatkouth also lauded President Salva Kiir’s leadership, saying his government is committed to bring peace to the country at all costs. He, however, accuse some opposition groups that signed the historic 2018 peace agreement with the government of working against the interest of the country’s citizens having rejected the peace accord. “To be sure, the lack of a unified opposition voice – one that is collectively lifted in good faith – has made the work of the mediators increasingly difficult. Nevertheless, the government stands ready to make peace and to negotiate with any rebel faction to achieve it,” he argued. Meanwhile, the former South Sudanese Petroleum minister called upon the African Union (AU), United Nations, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the broader international community to help South Sudan to make sure that this election is free and fair – that it is transparent and accountable to our people. “Our people rightly deserve an election in which nobody feels cheated, and in which all factions prove their commitment to ending war and prospering in peace,” he further stressed. ______

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Sudan-Eritrea • Eritrean delegation congratulates Sudan on planned US terror delisting-Sudan Tribune Senior Eritrean officials arrived in Khartoum on Tuesday to deliver a message from President Isaias Afwerki congratulating Sudan for being removed from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Led by Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and Presidential Adviser Yemane Ghebreab, the delegation met the Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Abdel-Fatah Al-Burhan, as well as Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok and Deputy-Chairman Mohamed Hamadan Daglo. This tribute was delivered after Monday’s news of U.S. President announcing his plan to remove Sudan from the terror blacklist, ending decades of international isolation. "The delegation congratulated the people and Government of Sudan on the country’s removal from the US list of “state sponsors of terrorism,” said the Eritrean information ministry in a statement released on Tuesday. Al-Burhan thanked Eritrea for their dedicated and unwavering solidarity with Sudan, stating that the bilateral security cooperation has commenced before then stressing the need to develop the cooperation further. Also, he pointed out that Sudan and Eritrea share a similar stance on the timely Horn of Africa Cooperation, according to the official organ. In a statement issued in Khartoum, Hamdok’s office said the meeting with visiting delegation discussed ways to develop bilateral relations and coordination in issues of common interest regionally and internationally. Hamdok meeting with the Eritrean delegation was attended by Sudanese Cabinet Affairs Minister, Omer Manis, Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Mohamed Sharief, and the Eritrean Charge D’Affaires, Ambassador Steven C. Walker.

______Sudan-Israel • Israeli delegation travels to Sudan to discuss normalization - Israeli radio Kan- An Israeli delegation made a rare visit to Sudan on Wednesday to discuss normalizing ties, Israeli public broadcaster Kan radio said, as a minister predicted a possible diplomatic breakthrough between the two countries. Israeli Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen told Israel’s Channel 13 News that he believed Israel was “very close to normalizing ties with Sudan”. Kan radio gave no further details about the discussions held in Khartoum. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli Foreign Ministry declined to comment when asked about prospects for a breakthrough with Sudan. In a foreign-policy flourish ahead of his re-election bid, top aides to U.S. President Donald Trump this week escorted Israeli delegates to and UAE delegates to Israel, cementing Israel’s new, U.S.-brokered relations with the Gulf states. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Wednesday that the United States had begun the process of removing Sudan from

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 its list of state sponsors of terrorism and was also working “diligently” to get Khartoum to recognize Israel. Pompeo stopped short of saying Sudan’s removal would be linked to whether it would agree to normalize relations with Israel. Sudanese sources have not indicated so far that normalization talks were far advanced. Israeli Regional Cooperation Minister Ofir Akunis said that the United States would announce another deal establishing ties between Israel and an Arab or Muslim country before the U.S. election. “I have a reasonable basis to believe that the announcement will come before Nov. 3 - that, if you’ll permit me, is what I understand from my sources,” Akunis told Israel’s Army Radio. Akunis said several countries were candidates to normalise relations with Israel. He did not name these, saying that it was “customary” to let the first official word come from Washington. But U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman did not indicate any imminent diplomatic breakthrough. “More nations that are in the Arab League will normalise and make peace with Israel, I have no doubt, it is a certainty. How many, in what order, I think everyone is just going to have to wait and see,” he told a conference hosted by Israel Hayom newspaper and the Kohelet Policy Forum think-tank. ______

• Pompeo says process to rescind Sudan’s terror designation has started-Sudan Tribune The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Wednesday that Washington has kicked off the process by which Sudan would get off the list of states that sponsor terrorism but declined to give a timeline. “I don’t know the precise timing, but we are – we have begun the process to lift the designation of state sponsorship of terror. It’s the right thing to do. There’s been a lot of work done on this over the course of the first three years of the administration. We believe there is a firm legal basis for doing that, and we think that there will be enormous bipartisan consensus that that’s the right to do,” said in response to questioning by reporters at his weekly press conference. Pompeo’s remarks followed his boss’s tweet yesterday in which he declared his intention to delist Sudan once money related to terror attack claims is deposited in an escrow bank account. Sudanese officials say that the money should arrive by next Monday at the latest. The U.S. top diplomat also confirmed that the administration is trying to talk Khartoum into recognizing Israel but insisted that it is a sovereign decision for Sudan to make. “We also are continuing to work to get every nation to recognize Israel, the rightful Jewish homeland, and to acknowledge their basic fundamental right to exist as a country. That certainly includes Sudan. And we are working diligently with them to make the case for why that’s in the Sudanese Government’s best interest to make that sovereign decision. We hope that they’ll do that. We hope that they’ll do that quickly. We hope every country will do that quickly. It has been reported that the U.S. wanted Sudan to sign a peace deal with Israel in return for the delisting but this was met with resistance from Prime Minister Abdulla Hamdok. Last week the US agreed that removing Sudan’s terrorism designation

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 would take place before any steps towards normalization. Pompeo also praised the MoU signed between General Electric and Sudan last week saying it is an indication of improvement in relations between the two countries. “General Electric and Sudan civilian-led transitional government signed an MOU on October 15th of – for significant new projects for power and health care that’ll be an enormous benefit to the people of that country,” he said. “It’s a welcome sign that the relationship between our two countries is advancing. They’re poised to take even greater strides once Sudan comes off the State Sponsor of Terror list as President Trump announced this week that we will do and we expect to happen” Pompeo added. Sudanese leaders hailed the move by the U.S. towards delisting which would end a stigma that has been there since 1993 under then- President Bill Clinton as punishment for harbouring al Qaeda’s then-leader, Osama bin Laden and other terror operatives. “Thank you so much, President Trump! We very much look forward to your official notification to Congress rescinding the designation of Sudan as a state-sponsor of terrorism, which has cost Sudan too much. This Tweet and that notification are the strongest support to Sudan’s transition to democracy and to the Sudanese people. As we’re about to get rid of the heaviest legacy of Sudan’s previous, defunct regime, I should reiterate that we are peace- loving people and have never supported terrorism” Hamdok said in a series of tweets from his account. A tweet on behalf of the head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) chairman Abdel-Fatah al-Burhan was published by account stated: “I would like to express my deep appreciation and that of the Sudanese people to President Trump and to the U.S. Administration for the constructive step taken to remove Sudan off the Terror List in recognition of the historic change that has taken place in Sudan I would like to express my deep appreciation and that of the Sudanese people to President Trump and to the U.S. Administration for the constructive step taken to remove Sudan off the Terror List in recognition of the historic change that has taken place in Sudan”. Trump is expected to formally notify the Congress in the coming days of his rescission decision after which the legislative body has 45 days to review before it takes effect.

• Eyewitnesses: Sudanese police used tear gas on protests-Anadolu Sudanese police fired tear gas against protesters in different parts of the capital Khartoum, though no casualties have been reported, eyewitnesses told Anadolu Agency. Large numbers of police and other security forces have been deployed in the city's main streets, closing the roads leading to the presidential palace and national army headquarters. Pro-democracy protesters organized the demonstrations mainly against economic hardship, also raising slogans for the "correction of the revolution path" in the transitional period after former President Omar al-Bashir was ousted by the military last year following mass protests. Khartoum resident Wail Ali told Anadolu Agency that police used tear gas and rubber bullets against protestors chanting slogans for reforms. "I saw the police using tear gas and rubber bullets against the peaceful protestors and the protestors starting to defend themselves by building barricades in and around the neighborhood," he recounted. In Omdurman, Khartoum's twin city across the White Nile River, the police also used tear gas against

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 protesters on the main street Mawrada and are tracking them in the neighborhood, said another eyewitness, Abdul Salam Mahjob. Ahmed Suleman said the protesters were from different parts of the capital and wanted to reach the presidential palace, but were blocked by police using tear gas, rubber bullets and batons. The Sudanese Revolutionary Committee, which organized the protests, said it would submit a petition to Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, demanding the improvement of the economic situation in the country, the dismantling of the old regime and the formation of transitional institutions including the transitional legislative assembly.

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Africa

Nigeria Unrest • AU condemns violence in Nigeria amid calls for dialogue-BBC The African Union has "strongly condemned" the violence against anti-police brutality protesters in Nigeria. The Chairperson of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki, urged both "political and social actors" to "respect human rights and the rule of law". He hailed the disbandment of the hated Special Anti-Robbery Squad (Sars) and encouraged investigations to ensure "perpetrators of acts of violence are held to account". The regional bloc, Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), called for dialogue between the Nigerian government and the protesters. Ecowas urged both parties to exercise restraint as protests continue. "In this regard, Ecowas commission calls on all protesters to remain peaceful in the conduct of their demonstrations. It also urges the Nigerian security operatives to exercise restraint in the handling of the protests and act professionally," a statement read in part. Both the Africa Union and Ecowas had been accused of being silent as the death toll from the protests rose. Rights group Amnesty International said at least 12 people were killed by soldiers and police in Lagos on Tuesday, although Nigeria's army has dismissed the reports as "fake news". The protesters remain on the streets despite the disbandment of Sars and want major reforms.

• UN condemns killing of protesters in Nigeria-Anadolu , CGTN The UN has strongly condemned the use of “excessive and disproportionate” force by Nigerian armed forces on people protesting police brutality in the commercial capital Lagos. In a statement late Wednesday, Michelle Bachelet, UN high commissioner for human rights, urged “Nigerian authorities to take urgent steps to deal decisively with the underlying problem of persistent violations committed by the security forces, and make a far stronger effort to bring police and army personnel guilty of crimes against civilians to justice.” At least 12 people were killed and “hundreds severely injured” in Lagos at the Lakki Gate protesting ground during a face-off with multiple gunmen on Tuesday night, according to Amnesty International. The incident followed

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 violent demonstrations against police brutality in the southern Edo State that saw the destruction of houses and vehicles in its northern city of Kano on Tuesday. “While the number of casualties of yesterday’s [Tuesday] shooting at the Lekki toll plaza in Lagos is still not clear, there is little doubt that this was a case of excessive use of force, resulting in unlawful killings with live ammunition, by Nigerian armed forces,” Bachelet said. “Nigeria was already at boiling point before this shooting because of the revelations about years of unchecked violence, including alleged killings, rape, extortion and other violations, by the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS),” she added. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an influential regional bloc, also urged Nigerian security forces to "exercise restraint" in handling protests and to act professionally and also called on protesters to “remain peaceful” in their demonstrations. Some protesters on Wednesday morning set fire to the headquarters of TV Continental, a leading broadcaster. Journalists on site said they suspended news broadcasts as demonstrators stormed the TV station. The protests against police brutality, which started almost two weeks ago, has continued to gain momentum in most cities of the country, forcing the government to declare a 24- hour curfew in some states on Wednesday. In a statement on Wednesday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the escalation of violence in Lagos. “I call for demonstrations to be peaceful and for an end to reported police brutality & abuses. Authorities must investigate these incidents & hold perpetrators accountable,” Guterres tweeted.

• Media offices set ablaze amid violent protest in Nigeria - XINHUA Three media offices were set ablaze on Wednesday by suspects who allegedly took advantage of a protest seeking to end police brutality in Lagos, Nigeria’s economic hub, according to media reports. The Lagos Television, a state-run media organization, Television Continental (TVC), a popular 24-hour news channel, and The Nation, a widely circulated daily newspaper, in separate areas of Lagos, were torched by the hoodlums who went on the rampage across the state, local broadcaster Channels Television reported. Both the TVC and The Nation newspaper are privately owned. The attacks on media offices were part of the uprising which followed the shooting of peaceful protesters allegedly by men in military uniforms on Tuesday night. The government on Wednesday confirmed that one was killed and 27 others injured in that shooting incident. Witnesses said men in military uniforms shot at demonstrators who defied a curfew order by the Lagos government. Lagos Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu said the massive shooting was carried out by “forces beyond our direct control” after he visited hospitals to see the victims. Reports said the TVC was airing a daily magazine program when it suddenly went off-air as the hoodlums had gained entry into the premises, razing cars and other property of the staff, guests, and the television station. The television station has since gone off-air as a result of the attack. No casualty was reported. Violence has been reported in some other cities across the country as suspected hoodlums reportedly took control of the peaceful protests by citizens calling for extensive reform of the police. Nigerian police Chief Mohammed Adamu on Tuesday directed the deployment of riot

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 policemen to all parts of the country, to safeguard lives and property, as well as critical infrastructure.

• Nigerian military offered Wednesday to deploy in Lagos if needed: governor -Reuters The Nigerian military offered on Wednesday to deploy in Lagos state if needed amid protests, the governor said on Thursday. Unrest has broken out across the state, which is under 24-hour curfew, sparked by anti-police protests and the shooting of civilians by security forces on Tuesday evening. Governor Babjide Sanwo-Olu, in an interview on local station Arise TV, said the chief of defence staff and the chief of army staff had called around midday on Wednesday “to say that if indeed I require for the military to come out, they will deploy them”. He said the primary concern was the security of key business and government installations, such as Lagos’ ports. “It’s really just a conversation around security support that we’ve got,” he said. Fires burned across the commercial capital on Wednesday as protesters still on the streets, angry mobs and armed police clashed in some neighborhoods. Sanwo-Olu did not say whether he would accept the offer, but called on leaders to keep young people including protesters off the streets. ______Sahel Region • Donors pledge $1.7 billion for Burkina Faso, Mail and Niger - AP More than 20 donors pledged nearly $1 billion for the three countries at the epicenter of a humanitarian crisis in Africa’s Sahel region for this year and over $700 million for 2021 and beyond, the United Nations announced Tuesday. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the funds will help some 10 million people in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger for the remainder of this year and through next year with nutrition, food, health services, water and sanitation, shelter, education, protection and support to survivors of gender-based violence. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the high-level virtual donors meeting co-sponsored by the U.N., Denmark, Germany and the European Union that “the central Sahel region is at a breaking point” and humanitarian needs in the border region of the three countries “have reached record levels.” “The security situation has deteriorated sharply, harshly affecting people’s daily lives,” he said. “Violence is rising, and women and girls are especially vulnerable. Internal displacement has increased twenty- fold in less than two years. Climate change is threatening people’s livelihoods. And COVID-19 is making all of it worse.” The U.N. chief said this downward spiral “is a microcosm of cascading global risks converging in one region,” and needs to be reversed with a renewed push for peace and reconciliation. U.N. humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock reiterated that “nowhere in the world worries me as much as the Sahel in the medium-term.” And he again expressed fear that the region “is very close to a tipping point, with ripple effects that could reach neighboring countries and further afield.” Lowcock said more than 13 million people in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger need emergency assistance to survive, including 5 million children. Before the meeting, he told The

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Associated Press that the troubling situation in the three countries is a symptom of the failure to deal with a broad range of political, security and development challenges, as well as rapid population growth and climate change. Lowcock told Tuesday’s high-level meeting that these root causes “are not being properly addressed,” saying the international community has focused mainly on short-term humanitarian aid and security interventions “but much more is needed.” He called on the international community and the Sahel governments to make far bigger investments in basic services, especially education, health, clean water, sanitation and family planning, and in adapting to the pressures of climate change and population growth. This requires improved agricultural productivity, urban planning and economic development, he said. Both Guterres and Lowcock appealed for $2.4 billion to cover the remaining months of 2020 and 2021. U.N. spokesman Dujarric said donors pledged $985 million for this year and $704 million for 2021 and beyond. According to the U.N., made the largest pledge, $464.1 million. The United States was next pledging $274.8 million followed by Denmark with $183.1 million, the European Union with $122.8 million and Germany with $118.2 million. Rasmus Prehn, Danish minister for development cooperation, said: “Right now, more and more people in Central Sahel are caught in a vicious cycle of insecurity, displacement and lack of food.” “We must act and extend our solidarity to all those suffering, in particular women and children,” he said. “More funding for sustained humanitarian support is essential. At the same time, we must focus much more on long- term solutions to the challenges that drive the crisis.” ______Guinea Election • At least 10 dead in Guinea post-election violence-BBC , Aljazeera At least 10 people have died in post-election violence in Guinea, according to the country's security minister. President Alpha Condé is currently leading according to results from 14 out of 20 constituencies announced by the electoral commission, Reuters news agency reports. His challenger Cellou Dalein Diallou claimed victory and said the election was marred by "anomalies". He accused President Condé's administration of modifying results in the incumbent's favor. President Condé has called for calm as the country awaits the official election results. His controversial bid for a third term had led to protests before the elections during which at least 50 people died, according to Amnesty International.

______• South Africa’s tourism losing over 18 million USD daily without international tourists - XINHUA South Africa’s tourism industry was losing over R300 million (18.4 million U.S. dollars) daily due to the lacking of international tourists, said Tourism Business Council of South Africa (TBCSA). “It’s a large sum of money we are losing. There’s little activity that has happened since the re-

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 opening of borders,” TBCSA CEO Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa told Xinhua on Wednesday. While borders were reopened on October 1, tourists from some European countries and the United States are barred due to high levels of COVID-19 cases there. “People who were coming through have canceled their bookings due to high-risk list,” said Tshivhengwa, accommodation figures were down more than 80 percent. Statistics South Africa estimated that accommodation alone lost more than R7 billion between March and July which was during the lockdown. He said tourists from countries not on the high-risk list such as China and Japan usually make their bookings at this time of the year, but he was not sure if they would still come in their numbers in 2020. ______

Gulf Region and the Middle East • Libya's warring sides agree to open land, air routes'-Anadolu The military track of the intra-Libyan negotiations with both main warring parties has decided to open land and air routes that connect all regions and cities in Libya, the acting UN special envoy in the war-torn country said Wednesday. Stephanie Turcos Williams addressed journalists at a hybrid press conference at the UN in Geneva and said that the two sides had agreed to the opening of air routes throughout Libya, especially flights to the southern city of Sebha. "The delegations directed that the civilian aviation authorities take all the necessary steps to open the air routes as quickly as possible," she said. Williams said she is “quite optimistic” after the Geneva talks to set the groundwork for negotiations on a lasting peace in the war-torn North African country. “From what I've seen in the room in these direct talks, there is an air of seriousness and commitment,” she said. Reiterating the March 23 call by the UN chief for a global cease-fire, Williams urged the two parties “to solve all outstanding issues and forge a lasting cease-fire agreement.” The agreements reached over two days of talks in Geneva were based on recommendations by the joint military and security committee that met in September, said the UN envoy. She noted that there are still “worrying developments,” such as Libya’s deteriorating socio-economic conditions. “And, of course, the COVID pandemic is increasing exponentially in the country,” said Williams. The parties agreed to initiate joint security arrangements with a particular focus on the road for the land routes from Shuwerif to Sebha to Murzuq, from Abu Grein to Jufra, and for the coastal road from Misrata to Sirte and onwards to Ajdabiya. The 5+5 Libyan Joint Military Commission's work, the security track, is one of the three intra-Libyan tracks on which the UN support mission (UNSMIL) held talks again from Monday to bring peace to the country. "On the political front, UNSMIL is in final stages of preparations for the launch of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, with the virtual preparatory meeting to take place on Oct. 26 and the in-person meeting to take place in Tunis on Nov. 9," said Williams. The two sides agreed on the need to end the use of "inflammatory and escalatory media rhetoric to halt the use of hate speech." "They urged the judicial authorities

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 to take the necessary deterrence measures to hold accountable the channels and social media platforms promoting hate speech and inciting violence while ensuring that freedom of expression and speech is protected," said Williams. She said what made the talks important is that “this will be a Libyan-owned solution.” “And what I see is a real determination to preserve the country's unity and sovereignty,” said the UN envoy. The Government of National Accord was founded in 2015 under UN-led agreement, but efforts for a long-term political settlement have failed due to a military offensive by forces loyal to warlord Khalifa Haftar. The UN recognizes Fayez al-Sarraj's government as the country's legitimate authority as Tripoli has battled Haftar's militias since April 2019 in a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives. ______Israel

• Israel vows to end Iranian presence in Golan Heights-Anadolu Israel will not allow or Iran to set up on the Golan Heights border, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told Israel Radio on Wednesday. The statement came after ’s state media reported that an Israeli missile attack on Tuesday caused material damage to a school in al- Hurriyah village in the Syrian province of Quneitra near the border with the occupied Golan Heights. When Gantz was asked what happened in Syria overnight, he said: “I won’t go into who fired what last night……things happen”, according to The Times of Israel. Gantz reiterated Israel’s determination to do what is necessary to drive ''terrorist operatives from Hezbollah or Iran'' out of the region. Israel has launched hundreds of strikes in Syria since the start of the country’s civil war in 2011. The Israeli army rarely confirms details of its operations in Syria, but says Iran’s presence in support of the Bashar al-Assad regime poses a threat to Israel’s security. Israel occupies roughly two-thirds of the wider Golan Heights as a de facto result of the 1967 Middle East war. ______UAE

• US Democrat senators introduce bill to restrict UAE F-35s sale-MEMO Two Democrat senators in America have introduced a bill designed to restrict efforts by President Donald Trump’s administration to sell F-35 fighter jets to the . Senator Bob Menendez (New Jersey) and Senator Dianne Feinstein (California) introduced the Secure F-35 Exports Act of 2020 on Tuesday. The intention is to ensure that any sale of advanced military systems to Middle Eastern countries will not proceed if it will jeopardize Israel’s qualitative military superiority in the region. “Ensuring that the United States and its crucial partner in the Middle East, Israel, maintain their critical qualitative military advantages over all potential

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 adversaries is enshrined in law and must be one of the highest priorities of any president and Congress,” said Menendez. “This rush to close an F-35 deal by President [Donald] Trump before the end of his term could well undermine that objective.” According to Feinstein, the legislation places significant limits on the Trump or any future administration’s ability to sell the F-35 aircraft to the Middle East, where it could threaten US interests and Israel’s military edge in the region. “Congress has an obligation to make sure that the most sophisticated US weaponry be limited to our use and that of our most trusted allies.” Last month, it was reported that Washington and Abu Dhabi hoped to conclude an initial deal on the sale of F-35s by early December. However, Congress has expressed concern that the deal conflicts with America’s continuing commitment to preserving Israel’s military superiority in the Middle East. The pro-Israel lobby in Congress has been working to disrupt the sale of advanced fighters to the UAE, despite Abu Dhabi’s normalization agreement with Israel. ______Qatar

• welcomes UN initiative to reduce tension in Gulf-MEMO The government of Qatar has welcomed a UN initiative to de-escalate tension in the Gulf, the Qatari News Agency has reported. Qatar’s permanent representative to the UN, Alya Bint Ahmed Al-Thani, made this clear to the UN Security Council on Wednesday. “Qatar stresses the strategic importance of the region and the need for serious endeavor towards resolving crises peacefully, achieving political and security stability and strengthening preventive diplomacy,” explained Bint Ahmed. “Resolving differences through dialogue is the core of Qatar’s foreign policy and the approach it has followed in dealing with the Gulf crisis with wisdom and the principles of peaceful settlement of disputes.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres proposed the creation of a platform to work on regaining confidence among the Gulf States, as well as building a new regional security body to deal with legitimate security threats. He also called for collective efforts to de-escalate tensions and end conflicts. Since June 2017, , UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have been imposing a blockade and sanctions on Qatar over claims that it supports terrorism. Qatar denies the allegations. ______Lebanon • ’s Aoun says committed to PM nomination-Anadolu Lebanese President vowed Wednesday to shoulder his responsibility in designating a prime minister to form a new government to deal with the country's economic crisis. “I will stay

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 committed to the process and hope that everyone thinks well about the designation and [government] formation,” Aoun said in a televised address. “I have said my word and I will not walk away,” Aoun stressed. Lebanon has been without a government since the resignation of Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s cabinet in August following a mass explosion at ’s port. Talks between the country’s sectarian parties have failed to agree on the formation of a new government to carry out reforms needed to cruise the country out of its current economic crisis. Aoun said that corruption has become “institutionally organized and deep-rooted” in Lebanon. Since October 2019, Lebanon has been mired by protests over the deterioration of the economic conditions, unemployment and the imposition of extra taxes.

• Lebanon's Hariri on course to be named PM-Reuters Lebanon’s former premier Saad al-Hariri appeared on course to be nominated for a fourth term as prime minister on Thursday and try to form a new government to tackle the country’s deepest crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war. Hariri needs to win the most support from parliamentarians who were holding a series of meetings with President Michel Aoun, after weeks of political wrangling that has delayed agreement on a new government. If nominated, Hariri would still face major challenges to navigate Lebanon’s fractious power-sharing political landscape and form a cabinet. His coalition government was toppled late last year as mass protests erupted against the ruling elite. Hariri, Lebanon’s leading Sunni Muslim politician, was backed by his own Future lawmakers, Druze politician ’s party and other small blocs. The powerful Shi’ite group Hezbollah said it was not nominating anyone, but said it would seek to facilitate the process. “We will contribute to maintain the positive climate,” Mohammed Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, told reporters after its MPs met Aoun at the presidential palace. Any new government will have to contend with a financial meltdown worsening by the day, a COVID-19 outbreak and the fallout of the massive explosion at Beirut port that killed nearly 200 people in August. Former colonial power France sought in August to rally Lebanon’s sectarian leaders to tackle the crisis, but has been frustrated by the apparent lack of political urgency or progress. Former prime minister , speaking to reporters after meeting Aoun, said he backed Hariri and that the next government faced the challenge to “save the country from the deterioration and great collapse” which it had reached. Hariri did not speak to journalists after seeing Aoun. Long aligned with Western and Gulf states, Hariri has presented himself as the candidate to build a new cabinet that can revive French efforts. The roadmap by Paris had set out milestones for enacting reforms to unlock foreign aid Lebanon badly needs. Thursday’s consultations were postponed from last week amid political rifts. Aoun is required to choose the candidate with the most support from parliament’s lawmakers, among which Iran-backed Hezbollah and its political allies have a majority.

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CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020

Emerging Powers U.S. Election • U.S. intelligence agencies say Iran, Russia have tried to interfere in 2020 election- Reuters, Aljazeera, AP U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday that Russia and Iran have both tried to interfere with the 2020 presidential election. Ratcliffe made the announcements at a hastily arranged news conference that also included FBI Director Chris Wray. The announcement two weeks before the election showed the level of alarm among top U.S. officials that foreign actors were seeking to undermine Americans’ confidence in the integrity of the vote and spread misinformation in an attempt to sway its outcome. “We have confirmed that some voter registration information has been obtained by Iran, and separately, by Russia,” Ratcliffe said during the news conference. Most of that voter registration is public. But Ratcliffe said that government officials “have already seen Iran sending spoofed emails designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest and damage President Trump.” Ratcliffe was referring to emails sent Wednesday and designed to look like they came from the pro-Trump Proud Boys group, according to government sources. U.S. intelligence agencies previously warned that Iran might interfere to hurt Trump and that Russia was trying to help him in the election. Outside experts said that if Ratcliffe was correct, Iran would be trying to make Trump look bad by calling attention to support and threats by the sometimes-violent group. A spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations denied Iran had sought to meddle in the U.S. election. “Iran has no interest in interfering in the U.S. election and no preference for the outcome,” spokesman Alireza Miryousefi said in a statement. U.S. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who received a classified briefing on Wednesday afternoon on election security, said he disagreed with Ratcliffe that Iran was specifically trying to hurt Trump. “It was clear to me that the intent of Iran in this case and Russia in many more cases is to basically undermine confidence in our elections. This action I do not believe was aimed ... at discrediting President Trump,” Schumer told MSNBC in an interview. White House spokesman Judd Deere said Trump has directed government agencies “to proactively monitor and thwart any attempts to interfere in U.S. elections, and because of the great work of our law enforcement agencies we have stopped an attempt by America’s adversaries to undermine our elections.” The emails are under investigation, and one intelligence source said it was still unclear who was behind them. Another government source said that U.S. officials are investigating whether people in Iran had hacked into a Proud Boys network or website to distribute threatening materials. This source said U.S. officials suspect the Iranian government was involved but that the evidence remains inconclusive. Some of those emails also contained a video, debunked by experts, that purported to show how fake ballots could be submitted. Ratcliffe said that claim was false. The second government source said U.S. authorities have evidence that Russia and Iran had tried

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 to hack into voter roll data in unidentified states. But the source added that because much of that voter data is available commercially, the hacking may have been aimed at avoiding payment. ______U.S.-China • US designates six more Chinese media outlets as foreign missions-Aljazeera US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Wednesday the United States was designating the US operations of six more China-based media companies as foreign missions, a move he said was aimed at pushing back against communist propaganda. Pompeo also told a State Department news conference that the US would launch a dialogue on China with the European Union on Friday and that on Sunday he would begin a trip to India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia. He said he expected the meetings would include discussions about how “free nations can work together to thwart threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party”. The State Department named the newly designated publications as the Yicai Global, Jiefang Daily, the Xinmin Evening News, Social Sciences in China Press, the Beijing Review, and the Economic Daily. This means 15 Chinese media outlets have now been classified as foreign missions by US authorities. The designation requires the outlets to inform the State Department of their personnel rosters and property holdings. The move is the latest US step to curb Chinese activity in the United States in the run-up to the November 3 presidential election, in which President Donald Trump has made a tough approach to China a key theme of his campaign for a second term. Pompeo said the decision was part of efforts to push back against “Chinese communist propaganda efforts” in the US. “They are also substantially owned, or effectively controlled by a foreign government,” he said. “We are not placing any restrictions on what these outlets can publish in the United States; we simply want to ensure that American people, consumers of information can differentiate between news written by a free press and propaganda distributed by the Chinese Communist Party itself. Not the same thing.” China’s embassy did not comment immediately. The editor-in-chief of the state-backed Global Times newspaper said in a tweet that the US had “gone too far” and that China would retaliate. “As long as Chinese media outlets suffer actual harm, Beijing will definitely retaliate, and US media outlets’ operation in HK could be included in retaliation list,” Hu Xijin said. As well as the restrictions on state media, they have imposed sanctions on Chinese officials, companies and government agencies for their actions in Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and the South China Sea. Since the beginning of the year, the Trump administration has closed China’s consulate in Houston, indicted several Chinese citizens on espionage charges, imposed strict limits on the travel of Chinese diplomats, restricted the number of Chinese journalists allowed in the US and issued stern warnings to US academic and scientific institutions over the alleged influence of the Confucius Institutes that promote educational and cultural links. The Confucius Institutes have

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 also been required to register as official missions of a foreign government. So far this year, the US has designated 15 Chinese media outlets as foreign missions. Before Wednesday, those included the Xinhua News Agency, China Global Television Network (CGTN), China Radio International, China Daily Distribution Corporation, Hai Tian Development USA, China Central Television, China News Service, the People’s Daily, and the Global Times newspaper. In response, China expelled about a dozen US newspaper correspondents with , and . Some media rights advocates, while accepting that Chinese outlets are beholden to the state, have voiced unease about the US measures, saying that they give Beijing a pretext to expel journalists who have done valuable investigative work on human rights and the origins of COVID-19.

• China will make necessary response to U.S. crackdown on Chinese media: foreign ministry - Reuters China will make the necessary response to the United States designating Chinese media firms as foreign missions, foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Thursday. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Wednesday the State Department was designating the U.S. operations of six more China-based media companies as foreign missions, a move he said was aimed at pushing back against communist propaganda. ______US-Saudi relations • Honeymoon over? Saudi Arabia-U.S. ties face reset with Biden win - Reuters Saudi Arabia’s crown prince enjoyed a near free pass under his personal relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, but the kingdom’s brazen young leader will have to tread more carefully should Democrats take the White House and reset strategic ties. Riyadh’s human rights record, with the brutal 2018 murder of Washington Post Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and detention of women activists, will be a prime point of friction with a administration, as will the war. At issue for the Gulf powerhouse, which lobbied hard for Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against foe Iran, is how Biden will address Tehran’s ballistic missiles and support for regional proxies in any talks to revive an international nuclear pact with Iran that Washington quit in 2018. While Riyadh and its Gulf allies prefer a Trump administration that also prioritized lucrative deals over human rights concerns, a Biden win would not upend decades-long alliances, five regional sources and diplomats said. Biden may, however, place stronger conditions on U.S. support, they said. “There will be challenges but there are long-term strategic institutional relationships and no one wants to break the camel’s back, though a Biden administration will want compromises,” said one Gulf source. A foreign diplomat in the region echoed the view that Saudi- U.S. ties would not be unduly harmed: “I imagine (Biden) would demand a few high-profile concessions ... something on women’s rights defenders maybe.” In his campaign Biden pledged to

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 reassess ties with Saudi Arabia, an oil exporting giant and major buyer of American arms, demand more accountability over Khashoggi’s killing in Riyadh’s Istanbul consulate and end U.S. support for the Yemen war. “Instead of giving blank checks to dictators and authoritarians around the world, as the Trump Administration has done, Joe Biden will stand up for universal values with friends and foes alike, and stand with the democratic world as we address common challenges,” a campaign spokesman told Reuters. Trump has objected to punitive measures against Riyadh over human rights. But in April he threatened withholding military support -- boosted after 2019 attacks on Saudi energy facilities -- after an oil war between Riyadh and Moscow wreaked havoc on markets, threatening the U.S. oil industry. Prince Faisal stressed that despite “occasional divergences”, the Saudi-U.S. alliance “goes much deeper than just one king or one president.” Riyadh and its Gulf allies strongly disagreed with the Obama administration over the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the 2011 “Arab Spring”, warning Washington against abandoning traditional allies and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Gulf States are also trying to push through arms deals, with the UAE and Qatar seeking U.S. F-35 fighter jets. The UAE has hedged its bets, reducing its military presence in Yemen and becoming the first Arab state in a quarter century to normalize ties with Israel, creating a new axis against Iran and Islamists deemed a threat to Gulf dynastic rule. Bahrain followed suit, handing Trump a win in U.S.-brokered accords that also garnered bipartisan support. Saudi Arabia tacitly backed the Israel deals but is unlikely to join soon given its position as custodian of Islam’s holiest sites and architect of a 2002 Arab Peace Initiative that offered Israel ties in return for Palestinian statehood. Riyadh has said only an Israeli- Palestinian deal could deliver lasting peace and stability. “The Saudis will probably not move to recognize Israel before the election in large part because this is a card they can play with a new Biden administration,” said David Rundell, a former chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. Gulf rivals are also biding time over a political row that has seen Riyadh and its allies boycott Qatar, two of the Gulf sources said, despite pressure from Trump to end the dispute. If Trump wins, Riyadh would seek to end the row and form a united Gulf Arab front against Iran, one of the sources said. “It may not be as big an issue for Biden, but if he also pushes for it, then we’ll see progress.” ______

US-India • India, U.S. set for military pact on satellite data during Pompeo visit - Reuters India is closing in on an agreement with the United States that will give it access to satellite data for better accuracy of missiles and drones, government and industry officials said, as it tries to narrow the gap with the powerful Chinese military. The two sides are expected to announce the pact during the visit next week of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper for talks in New Delhi with Indian counterparts Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh. The United States, which antagonized Beijing this week by approving the potential

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020 sale of three weapons systems to Taiwan, has also been pushing for stronger security ties with India to help balance China’s growing regional influence. U.S. companies have sold India more than $21 billion of weapons since 2007 and Washington has been urging the Indian government to sign agreements allowing for sharing of sensitive information and encrypted communications for better use of the high-end military equipment. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet discussed the final draft of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement on Geospatial Cooperation on Wednesday, an Indian government source said. An accord would provide India with access to a range of topographical, nautical and aeronautical data, a defense industry source said. It would also allow the United States to provide advanced navigational aids and avionics on U.S.-supplied aircraft to India, the defense source said. “It is a foundational agreement, which the U.S. has signed with many of its partners for greater interoperability,” the source said. India has traditionally been hesitant about getting drawn into a U.S.-led security alliance and antagonizing China. But tensions have risen dramatically with China this summer, erupting into a clash between border troops in the western Himalayas. This week New Delhi agreed to invite Australia into next month’s naval exercises scheduled with the United States and Japan, disregarding concerns it would anger China, which sees such a grouping as directed against it. “In tandem, the moves signal a new level of strategic convergence between the two democracies and a break from India’s ‘non- aligned’ past,” said Jeff Smith, a South Asia expert at the Heritage Foundation, about the proposed pact. Already there is robust intelligence sharing between U.S. and India, particularly about Chinese activity in the region, a second government official said. This includes information on PLA deployments on the Indian border and also Chinese maritime activity, including its deep- water fishing fleets, which have caused friction between Beijing and other countries. “They are sharing a large amount of data,” said the official.

CDRC Research Department, Oct 2020