Master Plan Update Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Meeting #1
DECEMBER 14, 2016
Master Plan Update Welcome!
• Airport Team Members - Rebecca Hupp – Airport Director - Matt Petaja – Deputy Director - Jill Singer – Airport Project Manager
• Airport Consultant Team - Joe Birge – Ricondo & Associates - Damon Smith – Mead & Hunt - Max Braun – Ricondo & Associates - Joe Huy – Ricondo & Associates
Master Plan Update 2 Agenda
• Introductions • TAC Expectations • Master Plan Overview and Schedule • Inventory of Existing Conditions • Aviation Activity Forecast - Local Trends - Preliminary Forecast • Comments and Questions • Next Steps • Closing Remarks
Master Plan Update 3 TAC Members
Austin Shontz, Western Aircraft Andy Coose, TSA Blake Martin, Turbo Air General Gary Saylor, IDNG Jeff Jackson, Jackson Jet Center Kevin Hoffman, UPS Derick O’Neill, City of Boise, Darrell Wodowski, FedEx Daren Fluke, City of Boise Howard Harmon, Paradies Meg Leatherman, Ada County Planning Jeff Friedman, Delaware North Holly Delay, ATCT Paul Decloux, Enterprise Scott Eaton, FAA Steve Jones, Hertz Rachel Rud-Scaraglino, Customs Lauren Mclean, Boise City Council & Public at large Russ Westerberg, General Aviation Teri Sato, Alaska Airlines Monica Del Rio, Southwest Airlines Mike Pape, Idaho State Aeronautics
Master Plan Update 4 TAC Participation Guidelines
• Be present and participate • Attend four meetings - Two hours on weekdays • Review materials and be prepared to discuss • Represent interests beyond your own - Including those of your peers, partners, and industry - Be respectful and open to differing opinions from fellow TAC members
Master Plan Update 5 A Master Plan IS…
• A process stipulated in FAA AC 150/5070-6B • A comprehensive study that describes the short, medium, and long-term airport development plans to meet future aviation demand • Elements of a Master Plan studies - Public Involvement Program - Environmental Considerations - Inventory of Existing Conditions - Aviation Forecasts - Facility Requirements - Alternatives Development and Evaluation - Airport Layout Plans - Facilities Implementation Plan - Financial Feasibility Analysis
Master Plan Update 6 A Master Plan is NOT…
• A business or marketing plan • A policy document - Informs future policy – does not set it • Rigid and inflexible • An FAA development mandate - …or a guarantee of FAA funding • A wish list • A Military Aircraft Basing Study
Master Plan Update 7 Boise Airport Master Plan Update Schedule
Master Plan Update 8 Inventory of Existing Conditions
Master Plan Update 9 Purpose of Identifying Existing Conditions • Inventory BOI’s current state of condition as the basis for potential future development • Collect data/information needed for technical elements of the Master Plan Update - Aviation activity forecasts • Current/historical aircraft operations, passenger counts, and socioeconomic data are important inputs to the forecast process - Facility requirements • Existing conditions are measured against forecast demand to determine future facility needs - Alternatives development and evaluation • Existing operational and environmental issues may restrict or necessitate certain development alternatives - Implementation/financial planning • Existing conditions can affect how future development is implemented/phased • Historical funding and other financial data serves as the basis for determining financial feasibility of the development alternatives
Master Plan Update 10 Approach for Identifying Existing Conditions
• Data/information has been gathered from interviews with and/or data requests made to: - BOI Finance and Ground Transportation - BOI Security and Operations - BOI Facilities and Engineering - BOI Property and Contracts - Fixed Base Operators (Western Aircraft, Turbo Air, Jackson Jet Center) - Cargo operators (FedEx, UPS) - Military (Air National Guard, Army National Guard) - National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) - FAA Airport Traffic Control Tower
• Types of data obtained to date include: - Prior Master Plan Update report - Aircraft gate use data - Current Airport Layout Plan and CAD drawings - Runway and taxiway usage - 2015 FAR Part 150 Study - Socioeconomic data and projections - Ground transportation statistics - Airport parking analysis report - Airfield pavement condition data - Airport lease log - Environmental and sustainability information - Aviation activity data - Utilities information
Master Plan Update 11 Existing Conditions Elements
• Inventory data is organized into the following categories for documentation purposes: - Airfield facilities - Passenger terminal facilities - Support/ancillary facilities - Ground access and parking facilities - Utilities and stormwater drainage - Airspace and air traffic control procedures - Environmental inventory - Regional setting and land use - Nonaeronautical land/compatible land use planning - Socioeconomic data - Meteorological data
- Aviation activity statistics (to be included in activity forecasts chapter) - Financial data (to be included in financial feasibility chapter)
Master Plan Update 12 Aviation Activity Forecast
Section One Local Trends
Master Plan Update 13 Despite Industry Consolidation the Air Service Market Continues to be Served by Multiple Airlines
3.0 200 AnnualAircraft Operations 2/ 180 2.5 160
140 2.0
and Passengers 120 1/ 1.5 100
(millions) 80 3/
1.0 (thousands) 60
40 0.5 20
Annual Annual Departing Seats 0.0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year
Alaska Southwest Delta United American Other Enplaned Passengers Aircraft Operations
NOTES: 1/ Actual flown departing seats. 2/ Enplaned passengers are passengers boarding an airplane from BOI. 3/ Total operations (arrivals and departures). SOURCE: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Form T-100, November 2016.
Master Plan Update 14 The Way Airlines Utilize Capacity at BOI is Changing
3.0 2/
2.5
2.0 and Passengers 1/ 1.5 (millions)
1.0
0.5 Annual Annual Departing Seats 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year
O&D Connecting Through Empty Seats Total Seats
NOTES: 1/ Actual flown departing seats. 2/ Enplaned passengers are passengers boarding an airplane from BOI. SOURCES: U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016.
Master Plan Update 15 Non Stop Destinations
August 2006 • 28 Destinations Served by Scheduled Airlines • 89 Average Daily Flights • 7,247 Average Daily Departing Seats • 4,385 Average Daily Departing Seats to Major Airline Hubs1/
August 2016 • 20 Destinations with Scheduled Service1/ • 64 Average Daily Flights • 5,999 Average Daily Departing Seats • 3,967 Average Daily Departing Seats to Major Airline Hubs2/
NOTE: 1/ As published in Innovata schedule data as of August 2016. 2/ Major airline hubs are Atlanta (ATL), Denver (DEN), Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW), Houston– Intercontinental (IAH), Los Angeles (LAX), Chicago–Midway (MDW), Minneapolis/St. Paul (MSP), Chicago–O’Hare (ORD), Phoenix (PHX), Seattle (SEA), San Francisco (SFO), and Salt Lake City (SLC). SOURCE: Innovata, November 2016.
Master Plan Update 16 Local Socioeconomic Conditions Have Stabilized in Recent Years
30%
20%
10%
0%
(10%) Change Change From 2006
(20%)
(30%) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year
Population Employment Total Earnings Personal Income Personal Income per Capita Gross Regional Product
NOTES: Socioeconomic variables are for the BOI Air Trade Area, which includes Ada, Adams, Boise, Canyon, Elmore, Gem, Owyhee, Payette, Valley, and Washington counties. Economic data are inflation-adjusted. SOURCE: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., November 2016.
Master Plan Update 17 Both Passenger Volumes and Revenues Are Growing
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
(10%)
Change Change From 2006 (20%)
(30%)
(40%)
(50%) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year
O&D Passengers1/ O&D Revenue Average Fare
NOTES: Includes passengers terminating at U.S. destinations only. 1/ O&D – Origin and Destination, passengers not connecting at the Airport. SOURCE: U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016.
Master Plan Update 18 Aviation Activity Forecast
Section Two Preliminary Forecast
Master Plan Update 19 Enplaned Passenger Forecast Methodology
• Short-Term (2016): Conducted analysis of published schedules, carrier announcements, and recent performance of carriers serving the Airport. Incorporated socioeconomic analysis to project underlying demand. • Medium- to Long-Term (2017-2035): Conducted various socioeconomic analyses at the local and national levels to identify longer-term demand growth at the Airport. Resulting demand growth estimates were applied to estimate enplaned passengers. • Overall: Assumed no additional industry “shocks” - Airline consolidation - Fuel spikes - Economic recession • Forecast Scenarios - In addition to the baseline forecast, high and low growth scenario forecasts will be developed
Master Plan Update 20 O&D and Connecting Enplaned Passenger Forecast
3.0
Preliminary Draft 1/ 2.5 Forecast for Review CAGR = 2.4% Purposes Only 8.6% from 2015 to 2016
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 Annual Annual Enplaned Passengers (millions) 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Actual Forecast Calendar Year O&D Passengers Connecting Passengers
NOTE: 1/ CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate, the average annual growth. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 21 Passenger Aircraft Operations Methodology • Average seats per departure changed according to fleet mix projections - Aircraft orders - Operating characteristics of airlines serving the Airport - National trends favoring larger aircraft • Used historical trends to estimate completion factor of scheduled operations • Assumed average load factor would remain relatively consistent throughout the forecast period
Master Plan Update 22 Passenger Airline Operations Forecast
70,000 Preliminary Draft 60,000 Forecast for Review Purposes Only CAGR = 1.5% 50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000 Annual Annual Passenger Aircraft Operations
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Actual Forecast Calendar Year
SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Innovata, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 23 Load Factor and Seats per Departure Forecast Preliminary Draft 120 Forecast for Review 100% Purposes Only 90% 100 80% AverageLoad Factor 70% 80 60%
60 50%
40% 40 30%
Average Average Seats per Departure 20% 20 10%
0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Actual Forecast Calendar Year Seats per Departure Average Load Factor
NOTE: 1/ Average number of enplaned passengers divided by total departing seats. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), OPSNET, November 2016; Innovata, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 24 Cargo Volumes and Operations Forecast Methodology • Conducted socioeconomic regression analysis at the local and national levels to identify relationships between socioeconomic variable and total cargo volumes • Used forecast socioeconomic variables and their relationship with total cargo volumes to project cargo volumes • Used the historical relationship between total cargo volumes and all-cargo operations to forecast all-cargo operations
Master Plan Update 25 Cargo Volume Forecast
160
140 Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review CAGR = 2.2% 120 Purposes Only
100
80
60
40
20
0 Annual Annual Cargo Volumes (millionsof pounds)1/ 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Actual Forecast Calendar Year All-Cargo Carrier Volumes 2/ Belly Cargo Volumes 3/
NOTES: 1/ Total volume, departing and arriving. 2/ All-cargo carriers do not transport passengers (e.g., FedEx, UPS). 3/ Belly cargo is cargo transported on passenger aircraft. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 26 All-Cargo Aircraft Operations Forecast
9,000 Preliminary Draft 8,000 Forecast for Review CAGR = 1.8% Purposes Only 7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000 Cargo Aircraft Operations CargoAircraft - 3,000
2,000
Annual All Annual 1,000
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Actual Forecast Calendar Year
SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T- 100, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 27 General Aviation/Other Air Taxi Aircraft Forecast Methodology • Analyzed historical relationship between national and local general aviation activity • Used the historical relationship and projected growth in general aviation hours flown in the FAA Aerospace Forecast to forecast operations by aircraft type - Piston - Turbine - Jet - Other
Master Plan Update 28 General Aviation/Other Air Taxi Aircraft Operations Forecast
120,000 Preliminary Draft 100,000 Forecast for Review Purposes Only CAGR = 1.5%
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Annual General Aviation Aircraft Operations Aircraft Aviation General Annual 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Actual Forecast Calendar Year Itinerant Local 1/
NOTE: 1/ Local operations are aircraft operating only in the local traffic pattern of the Airport. All other operations are itinerant. SOURCES: FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; FAA, Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC), November 2016; FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal Years 2016-2036, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 29 Military Aircraft Operations Forecast 20,000 Held constant based on the FAA TAF 18,000 Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review 16,000 Purposes Only
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000 Annual Annual Military Aircraft Operations 2,000
- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Actual Forecast
Military Aircraft Operations NOTE: Forecast military operations are held constant at 2015 levels, consistent with the approach in the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for the Airport. Military operations are mission specific and have the potential for high variability depending on military needs. SOURCES: FAA OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 30 Aircraft Fleet Mix Methodology Forecast • Passenger airline fleet mix projections were based on: - Aircraft orders - Operating characteristics of airlines serving the Airport - National trends favoring larger aircraft • Cargo fleet mix was projected to remain at 2015 levels • General aviation fleet mix was based on forecast operations by aircraft type
Master Plan Update 31 Passenger Fleet Mix Forecast Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only 100%
90%
80%
70% Operations 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percent of Passenger 10%
0% 2015 2016 2020 2025 2035 Actual Calendar Year Fewer than 51 Seats (CRJ2) 77–100 Seats (E190) 101–130 Seats (A319) 151 Seats or More (MD83, B739) 131–150 Seats (B737, A320) 51–76 Seats (DH8D, E170, CRJ7) NOTE: The representative aircraft indicated are not exhaustive and do not imply any particular aircraft will operate at the Airport in the future. They are provided as a comparison to aircraft seen operating at BOI in 2015. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 32 Airport Total Fleet Mix Forecast Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% Percent of Airport Operations 10%
0% 2015 2016 2020 2025 2035 Actual Calendar Year
GA/Small (C206, CRJ2, DH8D, E170, UH1) Narrowbody (A320, B737, B752) Widebody (A306, A310, B763) Military (A-10, UH-60, C-130, F-15) NOTE: The representative aircraft indicated are not exhaustive and do not imply any particular aircraft will operate at the Airport in the future. They are provided as a comparison to aircraft seen operating at BOI in 2015. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 33 Comparison of Enplaned Passenger Forecasts
2.5 FAA Variance Variance from TAF Tolerance Range2/ 20%
2.0 15%
10% 1.5 5% Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review 0% 1.0 Purposes Only (5%)
0.5 (10%)
ForecastFrom Variance TAF (15%) Annual Annual Enplaned Passengers (millions) 0.0 (20%) 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Calendar Year Calendar Year
Historical 2016 BOI Master Plan Forecast 2015 FAA TAF1/ Variance from TAF
NOTES: 1/ Adjusted to calendar year for comparison. 2/ Variance tolerance levels are 10% within 5 years and 15% within 10 years (FAA AC 150/5070-6B). SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, 2015 Terminal Area Forecast, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 34 Comparison of Aircraft Operations Forecasts
200.0 FAA Variance Variance from TAF Tolerance Range2/ 180.0 20%
160.0 15% 140.0 10% 120.0 5% 100.0 Preliminary Draft 0% 80.0 Forecast for Review Purposes Only 60.0 (5%)
40.0 (10%)
20.0 ForecastFrom Variance TAF (15%) Annual Annual Aircraft Operations (thousands) 0.0 (20%) 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Calendar Year 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Calendar Year
Historical 2016 BOI Master Plan Forecast 2015 FAA TAF1/ Variance from TAF NOTES: 1/ Adjusted to calendar year for comparison. 2/ Variance tolerance levels are 10% within 5 years and 15% within 10 years (FAA AC 150/5070-6B). SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast: FY 2016-2036, November 2016; FAA, 2015 Terminal Area Forecast, November 2016 ; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Master Plan Update 35 Comments and Questions
Master Plan Update 36 Next Steps
• Finalize forecast numbers and documentation • Submit draft forecast to FAA for review/ approval • Begin analysis of facility requirements
• Next TAC meeting: May 2017, to be determined in February - Topics: Facility requirements and initiation of alternatives development
Master Plan Update 37 Master Plan Update Information and Master Plan Comments Master Plan Update Website: http://www.iflyboise.com/about-boi/master-plan/
Master Plan Update 38 Public Involvement Program
Public Open House – Tonight • Boise River Room - Third Floor of Airport • Two Sessions - 5 p.m. – 6 p.m. - 7 p.m. – 8 p.m.
Parking will be validated
Master Plan Update 39 Thank you!
Master Plan Update 40