03.02.2020-09.02.2020 • No: 245

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ASSESSMENT OF PRE-ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT IN In November 2020, Moldova will hold rest of the potential candidates, including of the opposition to put forward strong presidential elections, which already , Andrei Năstase and others candidates in recent local elections are heats the general political situation in the obtained less than 10% of public ap- clear signals of a lack of cooperation and country. However, in many terms the pre- proval. consent among various oppositional par- electoral political activity had already in- The presidential election in Moldova is ties. tensified in 2019. It is interesting to note scheduled for November 8, 2020, and the The main ideological platform that Mol- that the last year has been characterized electoral campaign will begin two months dovan oppositional forces stand on is by drastic changes in the political land- earlier, on September 8. However, it is closer cooperation with the EU. Thus, one scape of the country. One of the most im- clear that preparations by major political of recent surveys showed that 59.3% of portant events in the political life of the forces for the election had begun long be- Moldovans would vote for joining the EU country was the departure of Vladimir fore, and the electoral campaign will in case of a referendum and only 25.1% Plahotniuc, Modovan tycoon and former probably turn into a fierce confrontation would vote against it. In another recent chairman of the Democratic Party of Mol- between the oriental and occidental polit- survey, Moldovans were asked which of dova (PDM), from Moldova on June 14, ical vectors. President Dodon openly de- the regional economic unions Moldova 2019. This came after the resignation of clared his political sympathy towards should join, and 48% of respondents sup- the PDM-led government headed by closer ties with and the Eurasian ported the idea of joining the EU, while Prime Minister Pavel Filip who before Economic Union (EAEU) before being 34% were in favor of the EAEU. Various that had attempted to dismiss President elected in 2016 and proved it by taking opinion polls and previous elections show , assume the presidential au- consistent steps since then. A request ini- that the pro-European sentiments are thority himself and dissolve the parlia- tiated by him to the Supreme Eurasian more and more popular among youth ment. Filip’s decision on the dismissal of Economic Council in March 2017 granted whereas elderly people and ethnic minor- Dodon was motivated by a prior corre- Moldova an observer status to the EAEU ities tend to support integration with Rus- sponding decision of the Constitutional in May 2018. Dodon also made two suc- sia. Public opinion on crucially important Court of Moldova. However, the refusal cessful deals on natural gas supply with political questions also differs geograph- of the parliament and the new government Russia and reducing its price by ically. Pro-European attitudes are more headed by Maia Sandu from the Party of more than 20% for Moldovan households prevalent in the capital city of Chișinău Action and Solidarity (PAS) to imple- and ensuring its continuous supply. Re- and urbanized parts of the country, while ment this decision further complicated the cently, President Dodon managed to re- residents of the country’s southern and situation. This caused a serious political move restrictions on the transit of Moldo- northern regions tend to be less pro-Euro- turmoil that was eventually resolved with van goods through the territory of pean and often support the alliance with the involvement of the leading European Ukraine to the Russian market, which was Russia. Since recently, the idea of the unification powers and Russia that supported the a good relief for the small Moldovan of Moldova and has been popu- Sandu government consisting of the economy so sensitive to external shocks. larized in media and public opinion of the members of the ACUM bloc and the Party Apart from gas price manipulations, the two countries. The idea is based on the of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova issue of unrecognized is an- cultural and linguistic similarity of the (PSRM). However, the new government other powerful mechanism of influence in Romanian and Moldovan peoples and on was dismissed through a motion of cen- the hands of the Kremlin, which Dodon the need to “restore historical justice”. sure initiated by socialist parliament can reap political credits from. His active However, a recent survey showed that members after six months on November negotiations on Transnistria with Russia only 34% of Moldovans welcome the uni- 12, 2019. and his statement that the 2020 election fication, while 58% prefer to see an inde- Despite her dismissal, Maia Sandu did not should be held on both sides of the Dnie- pendent Moldova in the EU. admit her political defeat, and, shortly af- ster River show his aspiration to resolve One of the factors that bear tremendous ter her resignation, she firmly declared the issue before the election and gain ad- importance for Moldova is its external that she would run for president and that ditional votes for himself. In case if the trade, 58% of which is done with the EU. she would beat Igor Dodon in the 2020 election was held in Transnistria, Dodon The share of Moldova’s trade with Russia election. During one of his recent would most probably ensure his victory is only 10.7%. Over the past two decades, speeches on the main state-run television since the large population of the unrecog- the role of the EU in the country’s foreign network, President Dodon, in turn, admit- nized republic (475,000 people) with the trade has been continuously increasing, ted that he would probably participate in Russian-speaking Slavic majority will while the shares of Russia and other CIS the upcoming presidential election if the certainly vote for the pro-Russian candi- countries have been declining. people of Moldova supported him. As of date. The presidential election in Moldova will today, President Dodon and ex-prime Following the heaviest phase of the 2019 probably be one of the most important minister Sandu are the two most likely political crisis, ex-prime minister Maia events of 2020 in Eastern Europe and the candidates for the next presidential term. Sandu became the brightest figure on the post-Soviet space. A relative decline in Thus, in a survey conducted in November pro-European wing of the Moldovan pol- political activism after the resolution of 2019, nearly 26% of respondents said that itics. Despite her removal from the top the political crisis in November 2019 they had the highest confidence in Dodon, government position, she remains the might well be a calm before a storm pre- while Sandu had almost the same percent- leader of the PAS and the ACUM bloc. ceding the electoral campaign. As the age of support (24%). However, in a more Various opinion polls show that Sandu is election approaches, it becomes more and recent study of public opinion conducted a potent candidate that can compete with more apparent that the main electoral in January 2020, President Dodon became the incumbent president. However, the standoff will unfold along the regional a politician credited with the highest ap- fact that Andrei Năstase, the chairman of East-West cleavage. Apart from changes proval by citizens with 35.6% of support. the Dignity and Truth Platform Party, the in domestic affairs, the outcome of the Although Maia Sandu remains the second PAS partner in the ACUM bloc, proposed election will have a potential to produce most trusted politician in Moldova, her an idea to nominate a single opposition significant shifts in the regional political level of support has fallen to 20%. The candidate other than Sandu and the failure agenda.

Written by Kanat Makhanov, Eurasian Research Institute,

Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture  The meeting of U.S. Secretary of State  Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian  The size of the immigration quota estab- Michael Pompeo and foreign ministers Economic Commission (EEC) Mikhail lished for ethnic Kazakhs returning to of the Central Asian states under the Myasnikovich met with Secretary Gen- Kazakhstan was reduced from 2,331 C5+1 format was held in Tashkent. The eral of the Association of Southeast people in 2019 to 1,378 people in 2020. parties discussed priority areas for de- Asian Nations (ASEAN) Lim Jock Hoi Newcomers will be settled in sparsely veloping U.S.-Central Asia relations in Moscow. The parties agreed to ex- populated northern and eastern parts of and focused on enhancing regional co- tend the cooperation program until 2025 Kazakhstan. Their regional distribution operation in border security, counterter- and discussed new approaches to mu- looks as follows: 500 people will be set- rorism, economy, trade, investment, en- tual collaboration. The EEC chairman tled in the Pavlodar region, 350 people ergy, transport, logistics, infrastructure, proposed to widen investment, scien- – in the Kostanay region, 258 people – entrepreneurship, and environmental tific, technical and industrial coopera- in the Akmola region, 150 people – in protection (MFA of Kazakhstan, tion between the EAEU and ASEAN the East Kazakhstan region, and 120 03.02.2020). countries (EEC, 03.02.2020). people – in the North Kazakhstan region  The made public its new  A plant for the production of irrigation (Kazinform, 07.02.2020). Central Asia strategy for 2019-2025. systems will be constructed in Almaty.  According to the Turkish Ministry of The document identifies six key objec- Production facilities will be located in Culture and Tourism, in 2019, over 45 tives of the U.S. policy in the region: the city’s industrial zone. A correspond- million foreign tourists visited Turkey, supporting sovereignty and independ- ing agreement was reached during a which is 14.11% more compared to ence of the Central Asian states; reduc- meeting between mayor of Almaty 2018, with Istanbul and Antalya being ing terrorist threats; expanding support Bakytzhan Sagintayev and Robert Gil- the most popular destinations. The num- for stability in Afghanistan; encourag- len, vice president of global operations ber of tourists from Kazakhstan reached ing connectivity between Central Asia at Valmont Industries, the U.S. manu- 455,724 people, which is 6.75% more in and Afghanistan; promoting facturer of irrigation equipment. The comparison with 2018 (Trend, reform; and promoting U.S. investment value of the investment project is esti- 07.02.2020). in the region (U.S. Department of State, mated at $50 million (Forbes, th 05.02.2020). 05.02.2020).  During a concert opening the 36 Win-  According to the recently published  The UN World Food Program (WFP) ter Festival of Sarajevo, opera stars of concept of Uzbekistan’s chairmanship purchased wheat from small farmers in the Turkic World performed works by in the CIS, Tashkent will make efforts Kyrgyzstan for the first time as part of Abai Qunanbaiuly, accompanied by the to accelerate the adoption of a new edi- an initiative aimed at stimulating agri- Philharmonic Orchestra of Sarajevo. tion of the concept of the further devel- culture by connecting poor farmers to The performance by soloists from Azer- opment of the CIS. Uzbekistan will pay markets. Under the Empowering Local baijan, Kazakhstan and Turkey was part particular attention to strengthening co- Smallholder Farmers pilot project, the of the tour organized by TURKSOY and the Yunus Emre Institute in relation operation between the member states in WFP supported more than 100 low-in- th the military, security, economic, trade, come farmers in the Osh region by pur- to the poet’s 175 anniversary (TURK- transport, communications, humanitar- chasing wheat at a competitive market SOY, 08.02.2020). ian and other fields (MFA of Uzbeki- price, which allowed them to invest  The government of Japan will provide stan, 04.02.2020). profits to increase production and im- $370,000 in grants for the implementa-  The extraordinary meeting of the Coun- prove food security (Kabar, tion of five humanitarian projects in Ta- cil of Foreign Ministers of the Coopera- 03.02.2020). jikistan. The projects include the con- tion Council of Turkic Speaking States  Tajikistan’s central bank considers the struction of a rehabilitation center for was held in Baku. The parties ex- national currency, somoni, undervalued children with disabilities in Khujand changed views on efforts to strengthen and sees no grounds for its depreciation, and a new building for the department the organization’s position in the inter- despite reported foreign currency short- of infectious diseases for children at the national arena, increase cooperation ages. In January 2020, the IMF encour- central hospital in the Sangvor district, among the member and partner coun- aged the Tajik authorities to allow the upgrade of equipment at the infec- tries, and develop fellow Turkic institu- greater exchange rate flexibility, imply- tious diseases hospital in Dushanbe and tions. In addition, preparations for the ing that they should allow the somoni to at the regional center for elderly and dis- 8th summit of the Turkic Council to be weaken. The IMF expects Tajikistan’s abled people in Istaravshan, as well as held in Turkey in October 2020 were current account deficit to widen to 5.2% the improvement of the drinking water discussed (Turkic Council, 06.02.2020). of GDP this year from 4.5% recorded in system in Panjakent (Avesta,  In Ankara, the Turkish and Russian del- 2018 (Reuters, 05.02.2020). 04.02.2020). egations, comprising senior diplomats,  President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly  Over 530,800 citizens of Tajikistan, in- military and intelligence officials, dis- Berdymukhamedov has reportedly allo- cluding 77,000 women, left the country cussed the escalating situation in the cated $1.5 billion to build a new city. for seasonal labor migration in 2019, Syrian province of Idlib, a stronghold of According to the presidential decree, which is 13% more compared to 2018. opposition and anti-government armed the money will be spent on foreign- More than 518,000 of them went to Rus- groups. The parties emphasized the made equipment and materials needed sia, and about 9,800 to Kazakhstan. At need to ensure peace on the ground and for construction. The city is expected to reviewed steps to boost the peaceful po- become a new administrative center of the same time, 419,150 labor migrants, litical process (Anadolu Agency, the Ahal province, the native region of including over 75,000 women, returned 08.02.2020). the Berdymukhamedov family, which is to Tajikistan last year, which is 4%  Tajik authorities plan to reduce the du- located around Ashagabat (The Diplo- more than in 2018 (Avesta, ration of the conscription service from mat, 05.02.2020). 07.02.2020). two to one and a half years. Relevant le-  According to the Ministry of Finance of  According to Uzbekistan’s Ministry for gal amendments proposed by the Minis- Uzbekistan, the country implements Development of Information Technolo- try of Defense and drafted by the Min- about 25 projects jointly with the World gies and Communications, the total istry of Justice were sent to the presi- Bank. The goal of these projects with a number of Internet users in the country dential executive office for coordination total cost of $5.7 billion is to improve increased to 22 million, including 19 with other government agencies. One of the quality of drinking water, reform the million people using mobile Internet. the aims of the amended law is to end agricultural sector, develop medicine The mobile communications coverage “recruiting raids” conducted each and road infrastructure, and build insti- of the population reached 96%, while spring and fall to capture people who tutional capacity for improving public 70% of Uzbek citizens have broadband evade the mandatory military service finance management (UzA, access to mobile Internet networks (Radio Ozodi, 07.02.2020). 04.02.2020). (Profit, 06.02.2020).

Prepared by Dauren Aben and Kanat Makhanov