‹ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK ‹ RESEAU DE SYSTEME D’ALERTE PRECOCE CONTRE LA FAMINE S/C USAID BP 34 MALI

MONTHLY REPORT ON FOOD SECURITY FOR MALI

August 22, 2002

SUMMARY

Weather conditions in the country have been improving since mid-July. In spite of this favorable turn of events, cumulative rainfall from May 1 to August 20 remains below normal in most of the country’s farming areas. However, a torrential downpour dropped 200 mm of rain on July 26 and 27 in Tombouctou Region’s District, causing significant material damage and loss of both human and livestock life.

Watercourse levels, despite being lower than last year’s levels for the same period as well as the average, appear to be adequate for normal emergence of rice plants, which were planted late.

Due to the late start and low rainfall, the 2002-03 agricultural season is marked by the small size of the cereal crop planted. The situation is worse than last year at the same time. Planting continues, however, and the growing plants appear to be in satisfactory condition.

Grazing and watering conditions for livestock are steadily improving. Biomass regeneration has nearly reached the Mauritanian border in the west (northern Kayes and Koulikoro Regions) and the center of the country (Ségou and Mopti Regions). Flocks are headed for winter pastures and the salt flats of the Niger inland delta.

The food situation is satisfactory overall. On the recommendation of the National Early Warning System (SAP), 2,430 MT of cereals were distributed as food aid to food- insecure persons. OPAM (Mali’s Agricultural Products Office) has proceeded with an intervention sale of 2,264 MT of millet and the out-rotation of millet reserves through the public sale of 7,106 MT. From January to July, the World Food Program (WFP) distributed 5,316 MT of cereals, 975 MT of vegetable oil, 248 MT of vegetables and 3 MT of sugar as support or food for work in Mopti, Tombouctou, Gao, and Kidal Regions.

The increase in dryland cereal prices abated this month on the country’s consumer markets, while rice prices remained stable. The terms of trade for rice/millet have never been as unfavorable to rice growers as in the recent past.

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. USAID/FEWS B.P.34 Bamako, Mali Tel: (223) 2 29-94-60 Fax: (223) 2 29-94-60 [email protected] NET

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I. IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AGRICULTURE

Not only has precipitation been lacking since the beginning of the season in May and June; but the rains that did fall were neither regular nor well-distributed. In contrast to this difficult beginning, weather conditions have been more favorable since mid-July in most of Mali’s farming areas. In fact, since July 10, the intertropical front (ITF), or intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), has moved significantly northward and its position has approached its long-term average position. In the third dekad of July, it even moved farther north than this average (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Change In Position Of the Intertropical Front (ITF) Position as of August 1-10, 2002 compared to the average position

Source: NOAA

This development suddenly changed the frequency and increased the intensity of rainfall, especially in most of Mali’s southern agricultural areas.

Despite this favorable turn of events, most rainfall stations monitored by the GTPA (an AGRHYMET Multidisciplinary Working Group) recorded lower than normal rainfall. At stations in the region’s principal towns, totals were 57 percent lower than normal in Kayes, 51 percent in Mopti, 38 percent in Katibougou (Koulikoro), 36 percent in Tombouctou, 33 percent in Sikasso, 31 percent in Kidal, 26 percent in Ségou, and 10 percent in Gao. These totals were also less than last year’s totals for the same period.

An analysis of METEOSAT satellite images estimating rainfall supports the recorded shortfalls in precipitation. According to images from the second dekad of August, rainfall in 2002 has been less to much less than the previous year and the average in most of the country’s farming areas (Figure 2).

However, a torrential downpour of 200 mm on July 26 and 27 in Tombouctou Region’s Goundam District caused significant material damage (collapsed houses, flooded fields) and loss of both human life and livestock. At present, aid from the government and partners is being mobilized and includes cereals, blankets, tents and medicines. 3

FIGURE 2: ESTIMATE OF RAINFALL BY SATELLITE (METEOSAT) 2nd dekad of August Compared to 2nd dekad of Compared to average 2002 August 2001

FEWS NET/Mali, Source : NOAA

Water conditions as of August 20 were characterized by a continuing clear rise in the level of all of the country’s watercourses. On the whole, however, the levels remain lower than the same period last year and the interannual averages (Chart 1).

Despite a rough start, the 2002-3 agricultural season is currently proceeding under favorable weather conditions. The main impact of the delay earlier in the season is that the area planted is smaller than the area planted at the same time last year.

Generally speaking, millet, sorghum and maize are moving from the emergence stage into the height-growth stage. Groundnuts are beginning to flower, while cotton plants have branched and flower buds are beginning to appear. Crop conditions and the general appearance of the fields are satisfactory overall. Nevertheless, millet and sorghum are now being planted late, especially in . If there is to be any hope of an average harvest for the late crops, the rains will need to continue until October 20.

In the Ségou and Mopti rice development agency (ORS, ORM) jurisdictions, efforts to work the fields and plant flood-irrigated rice have intensified following the rain. River levels, which are lower than in 2001 and the seasonal average, will be nonetheless sufficient for the normal emergence of rice plants.

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Chart 1. Comparison of Levels on August 20

500 2002 2001 450 Average 400

350

300 Centimeters 250

200

150 Koulikoro Mopti Diré Gao Ansongo

FEWS NET/Mali Source: National Department of Hydraulics

In the Niger River-Ségou (ONS) agency’s jurisdiction, Mali’s principal rice-production area, water coverage is complete and the emergent plants are putting out leaves. More plantings are planned than were last year, due to availability new fields. In the Baguineda (Kati) and Sélingué (Bougouni) agency jurisdictions, transplanting is continuing.

Flood recession crops are in the height-growth stage in Mopti and Gao Regions and are showing satisfactory growth. In the lakeside area of Tombouctou, these crops were flooded by torrential rains, causing the loss of about 80 percent (5,600 ha) of the planted area, especially at Lake Télé, according to technical services.

Plant-health conditions are characterized by: • Increasing numbers of grain-eating birds are gathering at the breeding grounds in and in the Niger River-Ségou (ORS) agency jurisdiction. Large flocks have also been observed at Ténenkou (Mopti), Gao, Ansongo, and Ménaka (Gao). • A significant number of grasshopper eggs have hatched, with pockets of infestation by the larvae on fallow lands in certain localities near Macina (Ségou) and Niafunké (Tombouctou). • Rodents are reappearing in the fields in Niafunké and Tonka in Tombouctou Region and in Macina (Ségou), causing light damage to rice. • There is a localized infestation of leaf-eating caterpillars in the Niger River (ON) agency’s jurisdiction in Macina and Molodo (Ségou).

Grazing conditions appear to be generally good during this time of year.

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Analysis of satellite images of the biomass (NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from the second dekad of August 2002 shows that regeneration has nearly reached the Mauritanian border in the west (northern Kayes and Koulikoro Regions) and the center of the country (Ségou and Mopti Regions) (Figure 3-1).

FIGURE 3: ESTIMATE OF BIOMASS (NDVI) Compared with the average for 1. Second dekad of 2. Compared to average the second dekad of August, August 2002 biomass conditions for the dekad are overall less favorable along the country’s Sahelian band. They are slightly more favorable in the northern and southern areas of the country (Figure 3.2).

Conditions for watering livestock are good and the weight of the animals is satisfactory.

Herds and flocks continue to gather at the winter pastures. Some transhumants have FEWS NET/Mali, Source: NASA begun to move toward the Niger River salt flats, especially near the Mauritanian border.

II. MARKETS

The increase in coarse grain prices, which began in January 2002, is abating on consumer markets in the country’s regional capitals.

In comparison with the month of July, millet prices remained stable in August on the Koulikoro and Gao markets. In Kayes and Ségou, a decrease of 2 percent was recorded. However, the increase continued on the Tombouctou (4 percent), Sikasso (3 percent), Mopti and Bamako (1 percent) markets.

In contrast to coarse grains, rice prices have been rather stable since the beginning of the year, which can be explained by the large rice harvest in 2001-02. The market in Ségou, a large rice-producing area, saw a slight 4 percent increase in the price of rice in August in comparison with July. This was the largest change in rice price since January.

Given continually rising millet prices and stable rice prices since January, the terms of trade for rice/millet on the Ségou markets have been declining for rice growers since December (when 100 kg of rice could be exchanged for 194 kg of millet). This turn of events is chipping away at the rice growers’ once relatively satisfactory access to coarse grains. This 6

month, the terms of trade improved slightly when rice prices rose as millet prices fell. The balance is about 1 percent more favorable to the rice growers (138 kg of millet) than last month (131 kg of millet), but 12 percent less favorable than it was last year at this time (156 kg of millet).

Despite the 1 percent increase last month, rice/millet terms of trade on the Ségou market have never been this unfavorable to rice growers in the recent past. The year 2000 remains the most profitable year for rice growers, thanks to low millet prices and the relatively high price of rice (Chart 2).

Chart 2: TERMS OF TRADE RICE/MILLET, 1998-2002 SEGOU MARKET 450 4.5 400 Terms of Trade 4.0 Rice 350 Millet 3.5 300 3.0 250 2.5 200 2.0 150 1.5 CFA Francs/KG

100 1.0 Sack of Rice (50 kg) Sacks of Millet (50 kg) per 50 0.5 0 0.0

/1 /3 /5 /7 /9 1 /1 /3 /5 /7 /9 1 /1 /3 /5 /7 /9 1 /1 /3 /5 /7 /9 1 1 3 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 /1 9 9 9 9 9 /1 0 0 0 0 0 /1 1 1 1 1 1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 9 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 SOURCE: OMA, Chart: FEWS NET/Mali

The tendency to maintain millet and sorghum prices at high levels may cause households that consume dryland cereals to eat more rice.

According to the EWS, rice consumption has already gained in importance to the detriment of dryland cereals in Kayes Region and to some extent in Koulikoro, due to the high level of millet and sorghum prices.

III. FOLLOWUP ON RECOMMENDATIONS INTENDED TO IMPROVE FOOD SECURITY

In August, 2,430 MT of food aid were distributed. This intervention affected 90,000 people in the six communes in the Kayes and Koulikoro regions experiencing food insecurity. Distributions were sufficient to cover the three months of the pre-harvest period (July, 7

August, and September), based on a half-ration of the national norm for food consumption (9 kg per person, per month).

OPAM’s intervention sales, which were intended to supplement the supply of cereals on local markets, are continuing in Kidal, Gao, and Tombouctou Regions. From January to mid-August, the total for OPAM’s intervention sales in these regions was about 2,264 MT of cereals. Based on its effect, this effort was judged to be sufficient.

OPAM is also continuing its technical rotation of old millet reserves via public sale. These stockpiles amount to 500 MT for Kayes Region, 2,000 MT for Ségou Region, and 4,606 MT for Mopti region.

These OPAM interventions contributed to an improved supply of cereals in the receiving areas.

From January to July, WFP distributed 6,542 MT of food, including 5,316 MT of cereals, 975 MT of vegetable oil, 248 MT of vegetables, and 3 MT of sugar. These interventions took the form of support or food for work given to core initiatives, partner NGOs, school cafeterias, and community health centers (CSCOM) in Mopti, Tombouctou, Gao, and Kidal Regions.