Economic Insight Issue 20 04.08.10 www.prsformusic.com/economics Adding up the UK music industry for 2009 In the summer of last year we published the appreciate the international context and ‘Adding up the Music Industry for 2008’ to recognise the value of music to UK plc on the explain how much the entire UK music world stage. To do this, we’ve offered three industry was worth, and more importantly new areas of analysis: (i) the role of UK Prepared by Will Page and Chris Carey, how it all hangs together. Our hope is that songwriters and publishers as net exporters PRS for Music, London this work will become a valuable reference of repertoire (ii) the divergence between the document for the industry and all of its signs of stabilisation in the UK and stakeholders to understanding and pessimism being expressed in the US and (iii) appreciate all of the rights, relationships and the role of music in driving tourism in the revenue streams that UK music generates. current economic climate. This year we have revisited the same ‘adding Whilst the overall picture is one of up’ exercise with more evidence, improved stabilisation, any talk of green shoots should analysis and a better understanding thanks be tempered by stressing caution over to constructive and collaborative feedback complacency. To quote the late Thomas from across the media sector. The principle Edison, “we shall have no better conditions motive for this work remains the same: the in the future if we are satisfied with all those better we understand the true makeup of which we have at present”. Some of the this complex industry, the better it will challenges currently facing the UK music perform overall. Encouraging signals of industry stem from regulation, recession and market stabilisation in 2009 mean that technology, especially as fast paced armchair critics ought now to take note of developments in cloud computing look set how the industry has adapted to change. to take online music consumption ‘off line’. Regardless of what threats and opportunities In addition, this year’s report goes beyond face the UK music industry; this report will what these achievements mean in the help the reader understand what areas will domestic setting, and enables the reader to be affected and how best to react. UK music industry bucks the trend in 2009 The big numbers for 2009 So, here’s how the big numbers shape up: the size of the pie came to £3.9 billion, up 5% on 2008. £3.9 billion, up 5% Disclaimer: This report has been prepared on the This year, the pie not only grew again but, most basis of information in the public domain and notably, UK recorded music revenues bucked a from other sources by Will Page and Chris Carey • UK music bucking downward at PRS for Music and is provided to intended global downward trend and flattened out. These recipients for information purposes only and tentative signs of market stabilisation are striking trends at home and abroad should not be relied on for any other purpose. as UK retail spending on DVDs and computer The report should not be reproduced, transmitted • International licensing or disclosed to any other person without the games displayed double digit declines in 2009. It consent of the PRS for Music or its licensors. is interesting to consider differences between old revenues underpin the success For further enquiries, information, and to request and new media, as both cinemas and live music permissions, please contact: press@prsformusic. • Recorded revenues stabilising, com. The opinions expressed in this report are, were up in 2009, (whilst DVDs and Physical CDs unless otherwise indicated, the authors’ own were down) suggesting that events based live continued to grow and do not necessarily constitute the view of the Management or the Boards of MCPS, PRS entertainment is where the market for ‘media’ is or any associated company. moving towards. Page 1 of 9 This report highlights that both consumer and business revenues displayed mean, and for whom. Whilst one could argue that if Susan Boyle and growth, the latter maintaining its share of an increasing pie at 25%. In Michael Jackson had not produced the unexpected sales that they did then addition, in this year’s report we’ll present several deep dives into the data aggregate recorded music revenues would have continued on a southward to share new insights on what’s driving the live music industry. For trend. Add to that, if Take That had not sold record numbers of tickets that example, we’ll carve the live market up by geography, to show where in the live would have grown more slowly. The reality, nevertheless, is that 2009 UK the growth was taking place. Before getting started, though, it is was simply not that bad a year for the UK music industry, especially when important to acknowledge that this increasingly complex and cross border you consider it took place during the deepest economic downturn of a industry is proving harder to add up. generation. For those looking for Schadenfreude, look elsewhere. With all the ‘macro’ analysis presented in this year’s report we encourage So, we’ll begin by populating the table and offering some clarity on the the reader to treat our work as a view of the music industry from 30,000 caveats within this year’s report to ensure the reader understands the feet and read beneath the top line to work out what all of these trends moving parts of this increasingly complex business. Adding up the estimated value of the music industry in 2009 (£ million ) Adjustments Value % Change BPI retail value of recorded music industry £1,356 0.0% Estimated value of the live music industry £1,537 9.4% Business-to-Consumer Total for 2009 £2,892 4.8% PRS for Music gross collections £623 Adjustment-for-double-counting mechanical -£89.0 Adjustment-for-double counting live revenues -£22.8 £511 4.1% PPL and VPL gross collections £141 Adjustment-for-double-counting BPI revenues -£72 £69 3.0% BPI record company licensing revenues £194 6.6% Estimated publisher direct revenues £103 6.1% Advertising and sponsorship £90 0.9% Business-to-Business Total for 2009 £967 4.4% Aggregated total B2B and B2C Value £3,859 4.7% Clarity on caveats Firstly, the original purpose of carving up the UK music industry into One of the achievements of last year’s ‘Adding Up’ report was B2B and B2C revenues stems back to a timely 2007 paper titled that it offered a long overdue awareness about what makes up Recession and Royalties, as it allowed the reader to better the whole UK music industry. This encouraged questions and understand how an economic downturn might affect consumers and feedback from its stakeholders which have further strengthened businesses differently. Think: if the economy is showing tentative this edition and mean that this work can continue to help the signs of recovery, but lots of public sector workers are about to lose industry succeed in these uncertain times. Much of the constructive their jobs, its plausible to argue that B2C revenues are more exposed feedback has allowed us to build upon the work. However, listed to the cuts in public spending than B2B over the medium term. below are three of the challenges the authors still face, which continue to raise more questions than answers. Secondly, an even bigger challenge was working out how to define ancillary live music revenues that are channelled back into the music • Is B2B and B2C still the right way to carve up revenues? industry. Our live market valuations are based on ticketed events, • Which revenues are channelled back into UK music? but everyone knows of instances where the gig might be free to • Where to draw the line in defining the UK? access, with the band taking a share of the bar – which limits the explanatory power of our data. Additionally, sponsorship of tours and venues has become more complex (and more valuable) than first Page 2 of 9 estimated. Put bluntly, the value of live music is much broader than has never seen before, with the former breaking the quarter of a the face value of a ticket and this year we’ve worked with industry million watermark online. experts to estimate the value of ‘on the night spend’ for 2009 and 2008, whilst furthering our understanding of B2B live music revenues The upward trend in digital albums poses an interesting question as from the advertising and sponsorship pool. to where the demand is coming from: is it consumers switching from physical to digital format, up selling from digital singles to digital Thirdly, advances, equity and cross border licensing make year-by- albums, or from P2P to legal? Regardless, the fact that digital year and country-by-country statistics harder to interpret. This leads albums contribute the same value as digital track downloads means to a problem of where to draw the geographic line when defining that armchair critics need to reappraise their analysis when claiming what UK music revenues should and shouldn’t consist of. There is the online market is 'all about singles'. simply no industry rule for this, but the principle we’ve applied here is to focus on published numbers where possible as they are both Is the US the golden child, or problem child? recognisable to the reader and verifiable to the researcher. Examples The US has grabbed more digital music headlines than any other of discrepancies occur when you consider the omission of country, ever since online exploitation started back in the summer international touring revenues of UK acts which may significantly of 1999.