No Logging Shire”

Why AMR should become a “No Logging Shire”

Peter Lane August 2014, updated October 2014

This document examines impacts of logging native forests in the Shire of Augusta Margaret River. Based on a range of sound reasons it recommends that the shire take the responsible and rewarding course of acting to prevent logging of native trees in our shire.

The impacts of logging are considered from the global progressing to the local perspective.

Global

 Forests are an important carbon sink. It has been estimated that of the CO2 emitted by human activity, one third is absorbed by forests1. As well old trees absorb more CO2 than young trees2.

 Logging results in loss of habitat and wild life and threatens the survival of species3. While this can be seen as a local impact, from a global perspective it is our responsibility to take whatever action possible to reduce the rate of habitat and animal loss and the extinction of species.

State and Local

 Logging our native forests is not considered to be sustainable. Since the formation of FPC in late 2000, premium, 1st and 2nd grade jarrah log production has steadily declined and is now just 14% of what it was in FPC’s first full financial year 2001-20024. The rate of regrowth compared to logging rates demonstrates that karri logging is also unsustainable5.

 Since the formation of the FPC in 2000 financial losses have exceeded $100 million6. The forests belong to West Australians. It is a wrong for us to pay to have them cut down.

 Exclusive of government grants and subsidies, in 2009 the State government gave FPC $15 million, in 2012 $72 million and a further $10.7 million in 2013. The State received nothing in return7.

 Employment has often been cited as the reason to continue logging native forests. Due to the part time nature of many forestry workers (in many cases split between native and plantation forestry), the number of people employed in logging and trucking native forests is considered to be less than 4008 (note, the attachment cites 495 workers are registered to engage on native forestry and transport, a number of whom work part time and/or in the plantation sector). Employment in

1 sawmills in 2012 totaled 4419, but as some mills have since closed this number would now be smaller. Downstream employment, including milling, could be maintained through plantation logging/milling and true value adding (ref. below).

 Logging causes severe damage to the environment*. This is caused primarily by destruction of habitat10 and spread of diseases11.

 Logging increases the risk of bushfires. Logging creates a lot of debris, especially leaves and small branches; the removal of trees results in exposure and drying of the understorey and forest floor; and small regrowth trees pose a far higher risk than established large trees12 (acknowledging that this research refers to clearfelling).

 Logging and clearing of land exacerbates rainfall decline13.

 Logging causes damage to amenities. In 1996 proposed logging was successfully stopped in the Bramley Forest. This is now accepted as an important recreation area close to town. Amenities include walking, bike and horse riding trails, picnic and camping areas14. Recreational use of the Mowen forest is growing and offers important potential in this respect.

 Tourism and its flow-on to the wine industry is arguably the region’s most important business. Logging and logging trucks are not compatible with tourism.

 Heavy logging trucks exacerbate damage to the shire’s roads yet loggers do not contribute to fixing them. Damaged roads decrease road safety and need to be maintained by the shire15

 Logging is typically followed by burning. Historically this is known to cause severe damage to grape quality and can be a health hazard16

 Logs are trucked out of the shire.

 The shire gains no income from logging17

 As the FPC operates as a government subsidised corporation (in terms of both cash contributions and no-cost forests) the plantation industry suffers from unfair competition. many farmers in the shire own (mostly small) plantations and even mature, well managed stands cannot be logged at an operating profit. Since 2001 Western Australian annual hardwood plantings have fallen from 18,140 hectares to 360 hectares and softwood plantings from 3,440 hectares to zero in 201218, unfair native forest competition being a significant factor.

I would also add that I believe there is a wide misconception of use of native timber. The actual use can be seen on the pie graph, below19.

WA native forest logging products Sawn timber (jarrah and karri) - 14% 14%

111 29% Sawmill residue (jarrah and

karri) - 30%

Chiplogs (karri) - 27% 30%

Fuelwood (charcoal logs and 27% firewood logs - jarrah) - 29%

*In respect of damage to the environment, I subscribe to the view that we are largely ignorant of the damage many of our activities do. Since completing this document I have received a copy of a report by the CSIRO dated 8 September 2014 (attachment 12) which claims that 75 percent of living species in Australia are unknown. As well, we less than fully understand the ecological function of the 25 percent of the species we do know exist.

1 CSIRO July 2011, reference 11/73, attachment 1 2 Nature World News, January 2014, attachment 2 3 Scientists’ statement on Protection of Western Australia’s South West forests, June 2013 attachment 3 and http://waforestalliance.org/ 4 FPC Annual Reports (Beth Schultz, Peter Lane compilation), attachment 4 5 Various, compiled by Beth Schultz, March 2014, attachment 5 6 Peter Lane, August 2014, attachment 6 7 Peter Lane, refer attachment 6 8 Hansard August 2012, attachment 7 9 URS report for Conservation Council, 2012, attachment 8 10 http://waforestalliance.org/ 11 http://waforestalliance.org/ 12 Melboune University and ANU 2014, attachment 9 13 Andrich and Imberger 2012, attachment 10 14 Jane Scott, letter attachment 11 15 Shire to check if FPC contributes to road maintenance 16 MR wine industry (awaiting reference) 17 Shire to confirm 18 ABARES 1919191919191919191919 FPC 2012 Annual Report

Attachment 1 CSIRO

Using sophisticated monitoring equipment, scientists have constructed a profile of forests as regulators of atmospheric CO2. (CSIRO) Forests absorb one third our fossil fuel emissions

Reference: 11/73

The world's established forests remove 2.4 billion tonnes of carbon per year from the atmosphere – equivalent to one third of current annual fossil fuel emissions – according to new research published today in the journal Science.

 15 July 2011

This is the first time volumes of the greenhouse gas absorbed from the atmosphere by tropical, temperate and boreal forests have been so clearly identified.

"This is really a timely breakthrough with which we can now clearly demonstrate how forests and changes in landscape such as wildfire or forest regrowth impact the removal or release of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)," says CSIRO co-author of the paper: A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests, Dr Pep Canadell.

"What this research tells us is that forests play a much larger role as carbon sinks as a result of tree growth and forest expansion."

Dr Canadell, who is also the Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project, said the international research team combined data from forest inventories, models and satellites to construct a profile of forests as major regulators of atmospheric CO2.

In addition to the large carbon sink, he said scientists now know that deforestation is responsible for emitting 2.9 billion tonnes of carbon per year – an exchange that had not been known in the past because of a lack of data. For comparison, total emissions from fossil fuels are currently above eight billion tonnes of carbon per year.

4 says Dr Pep Canadell.

Dr Canadell said emissions from deforestation are much larger than previously thought, suggesting that the potential benefits of avoiding deforestation through the United Nations-backed Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) scheme, are much larger than previously appreciated.

The REDD scheme aims to formulate a financial value for the carbon stored in forests.

Dr Canadell said a surprising finding was the large capacity of tropical forest re-growth to remove atmospheric CO2. Regrowth takes place following the end of logging and slash-and-burn land clearing projects, and, to a lesser extent, when new forest plantations are planted.

"We estimate that tropical forest regrowth is removing an average of 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon per year. Unfortunately, some countries have not looked on forest regrowth as a component of REDD, and so are missing a very important opportunity to gain even further climate benefits from the conservation of forests.

"Combining the uptake by established and forest re-growth plus emissions from deforestation, the world’s forests have a net effect on atmospheric CO2 equivalent to the removal of 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon every year.

"Carbon exchanges from tropical forests have the highest uncertainties in this analysis and this research has required a concerted effort to refine them to our best knowledge," Dr Canadell said.

This work has been undertaken as part of the Australian Climate Change Science Program, funded jointly by the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

The paper was co-authored by: Yude Pan, Richard Birdsey, Jingyun Fang, Richard Houghton, Pekka Kauppi, Werner A. Kurz, Oliver L. Phillips, Anatoly Shvidenko, Simon L. Lewis, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Stephen Pacala, A David McGuire, Shilong Piao, Aapo Rautiainen, Stephen Sitc and Daniel Hayes.

Attachment 2

Older Trees Grow Faster, Take Up More Carbon

By James A. Foley Jan 16, 2014 09:15 AM EST

Trees' growth accelerates with age, according to a new study in the journal Nature, which suggests that the world's oldest trees could play an important role in combating climate change. (Photo : Michael Schweppe / Flickr via University of Washington )

Trees' growth accelerates with age, according to a new study in the journal Nature, which suggests that the world's oldest trees could play an important role in combating climate change.

The revelation goes against the long-held assumption that trees lose their vigor with age. An analysis of more than 600,000 trees belonging to 403 species found that trees grow more as they get older, which enables them to trap more carbon than their younger counterparts.

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"Rather than slowing down or ceasing growth and carbon uptake, as we previously assumed, most of the oldest trees in forests around the world actually grow faster, taking up more carbon," said Richard Condit, staff scientist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. "A large tree may put on weight equivalent to an entire small tree in a year."

The phenomenon would be akin to a human's growth continuing past adolescence instead of slowing down, the study' first author Nathan Stephenson, an ecologist with the US Geological Survey, said in a statement.

"By that measure, humans could weigh half a ton by middle age and well over a ton at retirement," Stephenson told the AFP.

Stephenson told the Nature blog that the trees "have the equivalent of an adolescent growth spurt, but it just keeps going."

One study site, an old-growth forest in the western US, the researchers found that trees with a diameter larger than 100 centimeters comprised just 6 percent of trees but accounted for one third of the growth in the forest.

One of the next steps in this research is to determine whether the accelerated growth of an individual tree will translate into greater carbon storage by aging forests. The answer will have an impact on a number of carbon sequestration programs that rely on the carbon- absorbing abilities of forests.

"We already knew that old forests store more carbon than young forests. But old forests contain trees of all sizes and it was not clearly understood which trees grew the fastest, removing the most carbon dioxide from the atmosphere," said Stephenson told the AFP.

But now the answer in clear.

"For reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, more big trees are better!" he said.

Attachment 3 SCIENTISTS’ STATEMENT ON PROTECTION OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S SOUTH-WEST FORESTS

June 2013 We, the undersigned scientists with knowledge and understanding of the forest ecosystems of the south-west of Western Australia, have concerns about the future of these ecosystems. Securing improved protection and management is essential for this internationally recognised, biologically rich and highly valued landscape. The south-west of Western Australia is listed as one of the world’s 34 Global Biodiversity Hotspots because of its large numbers of endemic species and the serious threats to its biodiversity. Western Australia’s karri, jarrah, marri, tuart and tingle forests grow within this Biodiversity Hotspot and nowhere else in the world. These forests have become important refuges for forest-dependent flora and fauna species. They are critical habitat for endangered species such as the Numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus), the Mainland Quokka (Setonix brachyurus) and the Forest Red-tailed Black Cockatoo (Calyptorhynchus banksii naso). About half Western Australia’s native forests have been permanently cleared for farms, towns, roads, powerlines and dams and of the remaining half, about 40 per cent continues to be subjected to clearing or logging.

In combination, climate change, forest diseases, destructive fires, logging and mining are placing enormous stress on the south-west forest ecosystems. The region is drying more rapidly than other parts of Australia and drought is having significant impacts. In this context, continued industrial-scale logging of the remaining forests is undermining their capacity to cope with the pressures they are under. This disturbance is:

Continuing to reduce critical habitat for threatened species such as nesting hollows in mature trees;

Spreading dieback (Phytophthora cinnamomi) and other diseases;

Fragmenting ecosystems and facilitating access for introduced predators (foxes and cats);

Compacting soil with long-term implications for ecosystem health;

Causing erosion and reducing water quality;

Releasing very large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.

While much remains unknown and more research is needed, we recognise that Western Australia’s south-west forests are under stress and state that, based on the precautionary principle, the following measures should be incorporated in the next Forest Management Plan:

Critical habitat for threatened species including forest that retains the structure of the original forests should be urgently protected from degradation and loss;

Additional corridors for fauna movement should be urgently incorporated into the conservation reserve system to link refuge areas;

Forests currently free of Phytophthora cinnamomi should be protected from activities that could introduce dieback;

Jarrah forests receiving less than 600 mm of rain per annum, and jarrah forests projected to receive less than 600 mm of rain per annum by 2030 should be protected;

Karri forests receiving less than 1000 mm of rain per annum, and karri forests projected to receive less than 1000 mm of rain per annum by 2030 should be protected;

Water in rivers, streams, wetlands and aquifers should be protected from the impacts of logging and clearing;

The value of Western Australia’s south-west forests as a carbon store should be recognised, accounted for and prioritised above conflicting uses. We believe that these measures, while not exhaustive, will significantly improve the ability of the forests to cope with the stresses they are under while reducing the pressures on threatened species endemic to the south-

west. This statement, endorsed by the following experts (listed in alphabetical order), was launched on World Environment Day, 5th June 2013: Dr Mark Andrich, Honorary Research Fellow, University of Western Australia (Centre for Water Research). Associate Professor John Bailey, School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University. Dr Paul Barber, Forest pathologist, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Murdoch University. Dr P.F Berry, Former Director of Natural Science, Western Australian Museum. Dr David Bradley, PhD NSERC IRDF Postdoctoral fellow Bird Studies Canada, University of Guelph.

Emeritus Professor Don Bradshaw, University of Western Australia.

Felicity Bradshaw, Honorary Research Associate, School of Animal Biology, University of Western Australia.

Associate Professor Mike Calver, School of Biological Sciences and Biotechnology, Murdoch University.

Dr Christopher Dean, carbon and spatial scientist, University of Tasmania. Professor Neal Enright, Plant ecologist, Murdoch University.

Professor Giles Hardy, Professor Forest Pathology, Director State Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Woodland and Forest Health, Murdoch University.

Professor Richard J Hobbs, Australian Laureate Fellow School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia.

Professor Pierre Horwitz, School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University. Professor Jörg Imberger, Director Centre for Water Research, University of Western Australia.

Winthrop Professor Hans Lambers, FAA, FRNAAS Immediate Past Head of School of Plant Biology (2002-2012) School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia.

Professor Brendan Mackey, Griffith University. Adjunct Professor Jonathan Majer, Department of Environment and Agriculture, School of

Science, Curtin University. Dr Jean-Paul Orsini, Conservation biologist.

Dr Trudy Paap, PhD, Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Woodland and Forest Health, Murdoch University.

Associate Professor Pieter Poot, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia. James Radford, PhD. Honorary Research Associate, School of Life and Environmental Sciences,

Deakin University. Emeritus Professor Harry F. Recher, FRZS, AM Edith Cowan University.

Philip W. Rundel, Distinguished Professor of Biology and Director of the Mildred E. Mathias Botanical Garden Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California (UCLA) Los Angeles CA.

Dr Denis Saunders AM, Chair Sara Halvedene Foundation.

Professor Michael Soule, PhD Professor Emeritus, UC Santa Cruz, Founder and past president, Society for Conservation Biology Founder and past president, Wildlands Network Member, Science Counsel, The Wilderness Society (Australia).

Katrina Syme, Field mycologist.

Malcolm Trudgen, BSc, Consulting botanist, plant taxonomist. Associate Professor Grant W

Associate Professor Grant Wardell-Johnson, Department of

Environment and Agriculture,

School of Science, Curtin University. Dr Alexander Watson, PhD in Environmental Management (Forest Ecology).

Associate Professor James Watson, University of Queensland, Director of the Climate Change Program at the Wildlife Conservation Society, Chair of the IUCN Climate Change Specialist Group.

Dr Mary E White AM. Adjunct Professor Ray Wills, School of Earth and Environment, University of Western

Australia. Kerrie Wilson, ARC Future Fellow, University of Queensland.

Barbara York Main, Adjunct Professor Researcher on spider ecology, evolution and systematics.

Sandra V. Valderrama, PhD University of Waikato, New Zealand Researcher, Conservation Leadership Programme, Fundación Conserva, Colombia.

Attachment 4

Jarrah premium, 1st and 2nd grade log production. Source, FPC annual Reports

350 300 250 200 150 premium, 1st, 2nd 100 50 0 2002 2014

The Conservation and Land Management Act 1984 requires timber production to be on a sustained yield basis, and in answer to a question in Parliament on 12 August 2014, the Minister advised that “sustained yield” includes quantity and quality of timber.

The Labor Government’s 2001 “Protecting our old growth forests” policy resulted in a reduction from 1,052,000 ha to 878,051 ha of jarrah forest available for logging. In the financial year 2001-02, production of high quality, 1st and 2nd grade jarrah was 245,003 cubic metres.

In January 2004, under the Forest Management Plan 2004-2013, the area of jarrah forest available for logging was reduced to 751,910 ha. This represents a reduction of 14.5 percent since 2001-02. The area remained unchanged to 2013.

In the financial year 2013-14, production of high quality, 1st and 2nd grade jarrah was 1,462 cubic metres, a decline of 99.4 percent since 2001-02.

Attachment 5

Karri sawlog industry collapses Prepared by Beth Schultz for South-West Forests Defence Foundation and WA Forest Alliance 23 March 2014 In 2013 there were 10,030 hectares of two-tiered karri forest available for wood production.1 Two-tiered forest is the name foresters give to selectively logged forest that is a mixture of old growth and regrowth trees.

At the proposed rate of logging of 500 ha/yr2 the two-tiered karri forest will be clearfelled within about 20 years (by 2033). It could be sooner or later depending on how intensive the selective logging was. There are 4,230 ha of post-clearfelling regrowth karri resulting from clearfelling in the 1920s and 30s available for wood production.3 It will be ready for clearfelling on the planned 100-year rotation 4 beginning in about 2020. At the proposed rate of logging of 500 ha/yr this post-clearfelling regrowth will be clearfelled within about 9 years. This regrowth could extend the life of karri clearfelling from 2033, when the two-tiered forest runs out, to 2042. There are 44,390 ha of post clearfelling regrowth karri resulting from clearfelling since 1967 available for wood production.5 Karri clearfelled and regenerated from 1967 on will be available for clearfelling on the planned 100-year rotation beginning in about 2067. On these projections there will be a gap of 25 years (2042 to 2067) when there will be no karri forest aged 100 years and ready for

15 clearfelling on the planned 100-year rotation. However, regrowth karri is growing much more slowly than anticipated. In 1997, CALM projected that regrowth karri would be first thinned at 20 years.6 In 2013, DEC said that regrowth karri would be first thinned at 30 years.7 In any event, regrowth karri will not sustain a sawlog industry. Post clearfelling regrowth karri provides only a very small volume of good quality sawlogs. Most of the logs are and will be low grade, fit only for chipping. In 2012, of the 70,132 cubic metres of karri logs extracted from post clearfelling regrowth karri, only 244 cubic metres were 1st and 2nd grade sawlogs.8 DEC had estimated that there would be 2,020 cubic metres.9 Furthermore, the Auditor General has found that an average of 19 per cent less product is being removed than was forecast.10 The karri sawlog industry has logged itself out of existence and the end is in sight. When the two-tiered forest is gone, it will collapse. This is conclusive proof that the karri sawlog industry is, and always has been, unsustainable.

1 Legislative Assembly of Western Australia, Question On Notice No. 1015 of 2013. 2 Forest Management Plan 2014-2023, page 93. 3 Legislative Council of Western Australia, Question On Notice No. 682 of 2013 Answered 14 February 2014. 4 Conservation Commission and Department of Environment and Conservation of Western Australia, Draft Forest Management Plan 2014-2023, page 106. The final FMP 2014- 2023 does not give a figure for the rotation except to say that maintaining a shorter rotation length for a portion of the karri regrowth regenerated in the 1930s is an ESFM management objective (page 89). 5 Legislative Council of Western Australia, Question On Notice No. 682 of 2013. Answered 14 February 2014. 6 Arthur Andersen, Minister for the Environment: General review of Hardwood Timber Royalties, January 1997, page 27. 7 Ferguson, Ian, Dell, Bernard and Vanclay, Jerome, Calculating the sustained yield for the south-west native forests1 of Western Australia: Report of the Conservation Commission and Department of Environment and Conservation of Western Australia, March 2013, page 36. 8 Legislative Council of Western Australia, Questions on Notice Nos. 202 and 390 of 2013. 9 Ibid. 10 Auditor General of Western Australia, Supply and sale of Western Australia’s native forest products, Report 10 – June 2013, page 16.

Attachment 6

Notes on FPC and native forestry finances

Peter Lane August 2014

FPC reported “profit”

The Forest Products Commission (FPC) was established in November 2000.

At the end of each financial year the FPC revalues its biological assets. These include state-owned south-west native forests, which the FPC has the right to exploit. The only value the FPC ascribes to these forests is that of timber. This value is assessed by predicting logging rates over the next 50 years and discounting the resultant cash flow.

Any change, for whatever reason, in the value of the south-west forests has been incorporated into the FPC’s profit/loss.

On formation the FPC was given state-owned native forests and recorded their value as $0 (1). This meant that any value subsequently ascribed to the forests could (not necessarily “should”) be recorded as profit for the FPC.

In 2002 the FPC increased the value of native forests from $0 to $67 million(2). This increase was said to be “due to a reduction in attributable management and protection costs.”(3) .

In 2005 the FPC increased the value of native forests by a further $33 million(4). This was said to be due to exclusion of an “allocation of corporate overheads” from the cash flows(5). After accounting for the change in discount rates, the impact of removing these overheads from the cash flows was in fact in the order of a $75 million increase in the FPC’s value of native forests(6).

Both the 2002 and 2005 increases in forest values were due to:

a) a change in accounting polices, and/or b) a correction of previous accounting errors.

In neither case could such increases be reasonably considered as profit.

FPC now values the forests at $97 million(7).

FPC’s reported cumulative pre-tax profit since formation has amounted to just $3 million(8). Had the value of the forests not been initially recorded as $0 and had they not been revalued, the FPC would have reported a cumulative loss over this period of $94 million.

The FPC recorded the increases in the value of the forests despite:

a) declining rainfall and forest growth rates(9), b) catastrophic decreases in the production of quality logs(10) c) demonstrated unsustainability of karri log production(11), d) an approximate doubling in value of our currency at the time of valuations (this has had a detrimental impact on all the profitability of all agricultural products) and, e) the Global Financial Crisis.

There would appear to be good argument that the value of our native forests has fallen and the real loss experienced by FPC would be materially greater than $94 million. The magnitude of this can be estimated by assuming that had the initial value of the forests been stated as $67 million (as published in FPC 2002 Annual Report) and has since declined to $0, as appears reasonable, the cumulative FPC losses would have amounted to some $160 million.

Government “equity injection”

The Forest Products Act 2000 Section 3 states: “profit, in relation to the exploitation of forest products produced on public land, means an appropriate return to the State for that exploitation” and Section 12 states: “The Commission (ie FPC) in performing its functions must try to ensure that a profit that is consistent with the planned targets is made from the exploitation of forest products …”

This is a clear and unambiguous directive. And FPC was formed by splitting off logging activities from CALM, an ongoing, purportedly viable business, fully owned by the state.

Over the past 13 years FPC has paid cumulative dividends to the state of $13.3m(12). That averages about $1m a year, ie a return on equity (this being $340m) of about 0.32%.

Since 2009 the state has given FPC $97.3m cash (called “equity injections”, but as the state owned 100% of FPC there was no equity involved)(13). This is in addition to many state and federal govt grants and subsidies. Ignoring these, net return to the state has been negative $86m. Annualised, this is a net “return” to the state of negative 2%.

FPC 2013 “operating profit”

FPC claimed the 2013 as successful as it achieved an “operating profit” of $4.6 million(14). Of this $3.5 million was derived from native forestry(16). In view of the above

18 discussion re forest values and the 2012-2013 decline in forest values of $24.2 million(15), it is difficult not to conclude that this so called “operating profit” was achieved by selling part of the forest asset (an analogy being: the owner of a block of units rents them at a loss, but on selling a long held unit claims this as an “operating profit”).

Impact on plantation industry

The FPC operates as a government subsidised corporation (in terms of both cash contributions and no-cost forests). This means that the plantation industry, which includes many farmers, is suffering from unfair competition.

Investments in new plantations and maintenance of existing plantations have come to a standstill. Since 2001 Western Australian annual hardwood plantings have fallen from 18,140 hectares to 360 hectares and softwood plantings from 3,440 hectares to zero in 2012 (ABRES), partially due to the collapse of the tax effective investment schemes and as well to unfair native forest competition.

Purpose of annual accounts

The above comments are based the philosophy that annual accounts of an organisation are produced for one reason and one reason only: so that shareholders and investors can understand how that organisation has performed. As residents of Western Australia we are all shareholders of both FPC and, effectively, the forests. Should such accounts require an expert to interpret them they have essentially failed in meeting this objective.

(1) Although FPC was incorporated in the 2000-2001 financial year, no annual accounts for either FPC or CALM (vendor of the forests) are available on line for that period. The initial value of the forests was recorded in FPC 2002 Annual Report, p.34, note 22:

2002 2001

($’000) ($’000)

22 Natural resource assets

Natural resource assets at valuation

Native forest

Native forest standing timber 66,534 -

(2) Refer note 1, above.

(3) FPC 2002 Annual Report, p.30. “1The increase in valuation in 2001-2002 for native forests is due to a reduction in attributable management and protection costs.” This was confirmed in discussions with Mr. Derek Oelofse (FPC CFO) in 2002 during which FPC confirmed that these costs had been removed from the 50-year cash flows by which the forests were valued.

(4) FPC 2005 Annual Report p.86, note 21

21 Natural resource assets

2005 2004

($’000) ($’000)

Natural resource assets at valuation

Native forests

Native forest standing timber 105,231 72,464

(5) FPC 2005 Annual Report p.88, point 21.3.2 “Cash flows used to estimate the net present value of the Commission’s natural resource assets have traditionally included an allocation of Corporate Overheads. Cash flows have been amended this financial year to exclude the allocation of Corporate Overheads.”

(6) FPC 2005 Annual Report, p. 87, point 21.2

21.2 Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity of the net market value of the commercial forestry operation to changes in significant assumptions: 2005 2004 ($’000) ($’000) Increase Increase (decrease) (decrease) Discount rate: + 3% Total natural resource assets at valuation (63,717) (79,259) - 3% Total natural resource assets at valuation 124,018 145,248

(7) FPC 2013 Annual Report, p.97, note 25.0

25.0 Biological assets

Current

Biological assets at valuation 2013 2012 Native Forest Native forest standing timber 10,674 11,483

Sandalwood standing timber 5,639 4,354

Native forest Biological assets at 16,313 15,837 valuation

Plantations Plantations Biological assets at 17,935 10,411 valuation Total Biological assets at 34,248 26,248 valuation current Non-Current

Biological assets at valuation Native Forest Native forest standing timber 86,379 109,752

(8) FPC cumulative profits to June 2014 before after tax tax

2001 -352 -2415 2002 15468 13310 2003 20122 14500 2004 8630 6038 2005 -15115 -10177 2006 33196 23435 2007 -24923 -18505 2008 3584 1008 2009 529 561 2010 -24156 -12041 2011 -14179 -13788 2012 12403 12921 2013 -12690 -8767 2014 8530 5364

Cum to June 2014 million $11.047 $11.444

note. Profits are generally revised in the year following issue of an annual report. All above profits are the most recently revised number, eg the profits for 2009 are as revised in the 2010 annual report.

Peter B Lane

from 2001 to 2011 verified by John B Tate, B.Bus

(9) FPC letter ref PB:SE of 28/11/2007 from FPC GM Dr Paul Briggs stated “The projected logging rates do not make any further allowance for possible rainfall declines arising from climate change. The current estimates are based on growth rates in the period since the mid 1970s, ie. when annual rainfall rates declined”. There is no reason to conclude, as would be evidenced by a significant decline in forest values and, one would anticipate, a note to the accounts, that the basis for calculating logging rates has since changed.

It is widely acknowledged that with declining rainfall the impact on forest growth rates, disease and number and intensity of fires, and therefore on forest values, is likely to be significant. FPC do not insure against fire.

In FPC 2011 Annual Report the Chairman stated: “While we made an operating profit of $5 million for the year, the reported result is a $13 million loss. This is predominantly due to the impact of drought on the estimated value of the plantation forest.”). During that year, the value of native forests experiencing the same rainfall was increased by $10 million (FPC 2010-2011 Annual Report, p. 74).

The CSIRO and IPCC predictions show declining rainfall in the south-west.

(10) Jarrah log production (m3)

Year High 1st and Bole Other Total Firewood logs19 2001-2 3,917 241,116 18,226 263,357 39,430 36,822 339,609 98 2002-3 1,439 162,527 11,917 187,459 34,773 53,731 275,963 11,576 2003-4 1,130 123,830 17,898 157,583 43,526 46,917 248,026 14,725 2004-5 418 108,952 23,303 150,651 53,680 61,436 265,767 17,978 2005-6 929 117,559 17,584 161,440 69,903 61,194 292,537 25,368 2006-7 794 91,521 16,213 123,917 41,258 66,279 231,454 15,389 2007-8 1,156 128,730 35,754 191,172 38,384 67,745 297,301 25,532 2008-9 535 89,974 20,229 147,149 54,327 73,539 275,015 36,421 2009- 633 53,534 11,100 134,191 50,070 54,551 238,812 10 68,924 2010- 599 34,722 9,427 94,051 49,478 94,971 238,500 11 49,303 2011- 841 41,693 17,036 130,570 44,163 117,240 291,973 12 71,000 2012- 843 33,955 18,487 147,545 55,026 84,140 286,711 13 94,260

High quality + 1st +2nd grade. 2001 -12 245,033 m3 2012-13 34,798 m3 = 86% decline

(11) “Karri saw log industry collapse” attached

(12) Refer respective FPC Annual Reports (13) Refer respective FPC Annual Reports

(14) FPC 2012-2013 Annual Report, Chairmen’s address “The 2012-13 year has been successful with an operating profit of $4.6 million.”

(15) FPC 2012-2013 Annual Report p. 124

(16) FPC 2012-2013 Annual Report p. 124 (attached

Attachment 7

Question Without Notice No. 532 asked in the Legislative Council on 16 August 2012 by Hon Giz Watson

Minister responding: Hon D.T. Redman Parliament: 38 Session: 1

Answered on

TIMBER WORKERS 532 in a state forest or timber reserve? (2) How many workers are currently registered to engage in the transport of log timber harvest? Hon GIZ WATSON to the minister representing the Minister for Forestry: I refer to part 2 of the Forest Management Regulations 1993, “ Registration of timber workers''. (1) How many workers are currently registered to engage in timber harvested in a state forest or timber reserve?

Hon PETER COLLIER replied: I answer on behalf of the Minister for Child Protection. I thank the member for some notice of this question. (1) There are 363 workers. (2) There are 132 workers.

Attachment 8

Report Social and Economic Impact Assessment on the Potential Impacts of Implementation of the Draft Forest Management Plan 2014 - 2023 14 AUGUST 2012 Prepared for Conservation Commission of Western Australia and Department of Environment and Conservation Australia II Drive Crawley WA 6009 42908086 The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, the Conservation Commission of Western Australia or the WA Department of Environment

Prepared by URS

Page 79

Table 5-•28 Estimate of number of people directly employed by sawmills by local government area Key SLA/LGA # of employees Albany 19 Bridgetown-Greenbushes 102 Busselton 43 Collie 10 Donnybrook-Balingup 0 Harvey 0 Manjimup 157 Murray 3 Nannup 57 Metropolitan 18 Serpentine-Jarrahdale 28 South West15 4

Total 441

Source: URS Consultation 2012

Attachment 9 Study finds logging increased intensity of Black Saturday fires

A study has found logging in the decades prior to Black Saturday made the deadly blaze much more extreme. Source: Supplied

THE heat and severity of Kinglake and Marysville fires that killed 159 people on Black Saturday was significantly increased by clear-fell logging of forests, scientists believe.

In a landmark two-year study of the Kilmore East and Murrindindi Mill fires, which destroyed Marysville and severely damaged Kinglake, scientists from Melbourne University and the ANU examined satellite images of hundreds of thousands of trees burnt on Black Saturday.

The scientists say the study showed conclusively that logging in the decades prior to Black Saturday made the deadly blaze much more extreme.

They also warn that increased fire danger in forests lasts for up to 70 years after an area is logged, with the risk peaking between 10 and 50 years.

The findings of the study will have implications for the bushfire risk to towns such as Warburton and Healesville, which are close to logging operations.

Professor David Lindenmayer, Australia’s leading scientist of forest ecology, who headed the study said it showed conclusively that clear fell logging increased the danger from bushfire.

“Our findings show the severity of the fires on Black Saturday was significantly higher in the areas that had been logged,” he said.

Professor Lindenmayer said preliminary estimates suggested the fire was 25 per cent more severe in forest that had been logged than in old-growth forest.

“This added severity is sufficient to kill people and add significantly to property and forest damage,” he said.

Prof Lindenmayer said the increased fire risk had strong implications for towns close to forestry operations such as Healesville, Powelltown, Warburton and Noojee as well as towns such as Woodend that were close to areas logged in earlier decades.

“Industrial clear felling of ash forests should not take place close to any human settlement,” he said.

The scientists believe the increased fire risk in logged areas is due to several factors.

Regrowth forests have more trees packed more closely together and contain large amounts of flash fuels allowing fire to build in severity, the study found.

Old-growth forests usually have wet rainforest understorey canopies, which do not burn as well as the drier understorey canopies of regrowth forests.

In the past 50 years, more than 47,000 ha of wet forest have been logged with 17,600 ha to be logged in the next five years.

The Kilmore East and Murrindindi fires, which later merged, were the most deadly on Black Saturday, collectively killing 159 people , destroying 1780 homes and burning 168,542 ha.

Attachment 10 Land clearing caused drop in rainfall in South West of Australia

Rain rain go away, let’s chop a forest down today? Mark Andrich and Jorg Imberger compare the rainfall patterns in different regions of southwest Western Australia. The areas where the most land was cleared show the greatest decline. They estimate that as much as 50 – 80% of the observed decline in rainfall is the result of land clearing, which doesn’t leave much to blame on CO2. The paper came out in 2012. This fits with other researchers working on the Amazon who estimated chopping down the forests could reduce rain by as much as 90%. Once again: it’s not so much that trees grow where the rain falls, but that the rain falls where the trees grow, and the taller the trees, the better. So the good news for Greenies is that we ought to plant more trees (and I’m all for that). But driving a Prius, building windmills, and using solar panels won’t do much for our rainfall. (It’s so strange anyone thought it would. The witchdoctors have them completely bamboozled.) The Abbott government’s plan to plant trees to sequester carbon may work, but by accident, not because of anything to do with CO2. Oh the irony. The evil climate skeptics want more trees, while the good and earth-loving gullible Greens want a forced financial markets of fake goods (sounds more like bank-loving!). If you are a rainfall analyst, WA (where I live) is a bit of a prize spot because, unlike most of the world, the flora was mostly chopped down after long-term rainfall data started being collected. So it’s possible to analyze the effect clearing has on rainfall patterns. The rainfall has declined by 30% since 1970 in the inland areas of southwest Western Australia, as climate activists like to remind us at every opportunity. Instead of being a prime example of a global warming disaster, it turns out that southwest WA is a bit of a poster-child to show the effects of land clearing.

The many ways land clearing can affect rainfall

To gloss over a complicated array of effects: clearing land increases the albedo (which means the surface reflects more light), and there are lower transpiration rates (the air is drier and there is less latent heat flux in the boundary layer). Trees affect something called the Biotic Pump (see here as well), and produce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that seed cloud nuclei, so there are less cloud seeding particles if there are less trees. Taller trees break up the surface, and without them the surface profile is flatter, so the wind flows faster. Inland WA is a pretty flat region, mostly around 300 m above sea level, and trees as high as 100m tall would make a big difference to the profile. Indeed rainfall increases by 40mm for every 100m in altitude between Fremantle (the port) and the hills. This is known as the orographic effect. We don’t just want trees, apparently, we want tall trees.

Figure 7. Rainfall zones. Moving from east to west, Zone 1 includes the uncleared region east of SWWA, Zone 2 includes the wheatbelt, Zone 3 includes the hills region, and Zone 4 covers rainfall station locations along the coast. The station location details and rainfall data are available from BOM [2012]. The station locations are as follows: 1.1 Bullfinch; 1.2 Lake Carmody; 1.3 Ravensthorpe; 2.1 Northampton; 2.2 Beverley; 2.3 Duranillin; 2.4 Broomehill; 2.5 Deeside; 2.6 Merredin; 3.1 Mundaring Weir; 3.2 Dwellingup; 3.3 Brunswick Junction; 3.4 Collie; 3.5 Nannup; 3.6 Wilgarrup; 3.7 Manjimup; 3.8 Pemberton; 4.1 Mandurah; 4.2 Cape Naturaliste; 4.3 Busselton; 4.4 Cape Leeuwin;

and 4.5 Albany. All zone station location numbering corresponds with the rainfall at station locations shown in Figure 8.

Zone 1 above is the most arid and furthest inland, but also the least cleared, and it hasn’t lost rainfall (though it didn’t have much to start with). Zone 4 is the wettest area close to the coast. But Zone 3 is the hilly escarpment where the biggest trees live, which has the highest annual rainfall, and it shows the largest decline in rainfall. Zone 2 (the wheatbelt) was drier to begin with and was more heathland and forest. Note the scale changes. Zone 1 gets about 20 cm (8 inches) in winter which is the “wet” season. Zone 3, the wettest, gets five times as much.

Figure 8. 9-year moving average of winter rainfall. Zone 1 has a slight increase in rainfall over time, Zone 2 rainfall declines, Zone 3 rainfall has the largest decline, and Zone 4 also declines, but by less than Zones 2 and 3. The zones are shown in Figure 7 and exact locations are available from the BOM [2012]. (Click to enlarge)

Most of the clearing happened from 1950 – 1980 In 1910 around 90% of the wheatbelt was covered in native vegetation. Clearing accelerated from 1950 to 1980 when 40% of the land was cleared. By 1980 a mere 20% of natural cover remained. Andrich and Imberger calculate the dollar effect of deforestation on water resources: “if deforestation had been managed in a way that did not reduce rainfall at reservoirs or increase streamflow salinity, then SWWA residents could be paying as little as $765 M/year for their water (instead of $1,165 M/year).” The additional expenses on water work out to be around $250 – $300 dollars a year per household.

ABSTRACT It is widely recognized that southwest Western Australia has experienced approximately a 30% decline in rainfall, in areas inland from the coastal margin, over the last forty years or more. It is generally thought that this decline was due to changes induced by global warming, but recently evidence has emerged suggesting that a substantial part of the decline may be attributed to changes in land use. These changes involved extensive logging close to the coast and the clearing of native vegetation for wheat planting on the higher ground. We present a methodology that compares coastal and inland rainfall to show that 50 – 80% of the observed decline in rainfall is the result of land clearing. Using an index of sustainability, we show that the economic consequences associated with this change of land use on fresh water resource availability are substantial, disproportionately affecting the environment and poorest members of the population. Given that the effects of land-use change on rainfall have been recently shown to be widely underestimated world-wide, the methodology is relevant to other regions where land-use change may have caused rainfall reductions in the past. Rainfall is especially important in WA — about half our water comes from underground aquifers, and farmers across the Wheatbelt depend on rainfall in a make-or-break kind of way. Perth dam levels are often in the 20% range, and two desalination plants were built in the last decade to ensure the water supply. Right now, Perth dam levels are nearly 37% full — which is not as bad as it sounds, last year dams were only 31% full at the same time.

WA used to have very tall trees There are still tall trees of course — like the glorious Karri trees which grow up to 90m tall, but there were probably a lot more of them. Although the impact of the early indigenous humans was likely transformational, the low population density, lack of modern machinery, and long time scale for recovery probably allowed the vegetation to evolve without dramatic short term devastation. This continued until European settlement began in 1829.

By 1901, when Western Australia officially became a state of the new Australian Federation, the non-indigenous population had reached 184,000 [ABS 3105.0.65.001, 2006], six times the original indigenous population density. In these seventy years 4,900 km2 of land had been cleared according to the West Australian State Library Collection [WASLC, 2001]. “In 1902 it was estimated that the SWWA contained the following forests (not including other minority species such as Red Gum): 32,000 km2 of Jarrah; 4,800 km2 of Karri; 28,000 km2 of Wandoo; and 16,000 km2 of York Gum [Fraser, 1904]. It was reportedly not unusual to find trees 300 ft (100 m) in height, 20-30 ft (7-10 m) in circumference and 40 tons in weight.” WA used to surface nutrients (in the trees), now it has some of the poorest soil in the world “The introduction of tractors with a ball and chain prior to the Second World War allowed land to be cleared quickly and by 1950, 68,000 km2 (30%) of the SWWA arable area had been cleared [WASLC, 2001]. However, it was not realized until the 1950’s that the Australian bush held almost all available nutrients above ground. As the trees were removed so too were the nutrients and trace elements that had once been recycled via leaves [Attiwill, 1966] and water was no longer adjusted within the soil by hydraulic lifting from the roots to the leaves [Whitehead and Beadle, 2004]. The native vegetation had evolved in a salt impregnated soil matrix [Peck, 1978] and as transpiration disappeared the water table began to rise, bringing the ground water nearer to the surface, where it intercepted the salt in the soil matrix, turning the surface ground water saline, further impacting vegetation regrowth and reducing agriculture production [Peck and Hurle, 1973].”

Does CO2 cause weather patterns to shift south? Not really It does not appear that the cold fronts (that bring the rain) have shifted southwards as some people (like the Climate Commission) claim. Long term rainfall from points on the coast (namely Cape Naturaliste, Cape Leeuwin and Dongara) shows little decline. Dongara — the most northern of these three long records shows a 12.5% decline after 1970, compared to the years 1884 – 1970. Now here’s an odd paragraph about the decline in data in the last 15 years: “Because coastal rainfall was stationary, the coastal analyses results do not support the hypothesis that global warming effects were contributing to rainfall decline; at least until around 2000 when data became less reliable.“

It rather begs the question as to why data was less reliable after 2000 than it was before 1900? Data at Dongara has many “gaps from 1999 – 2004″. And at the two Capes, “data at both of these locations needs to be treated with caution as it was not quality controlled after 1997″. Hmm? SW WA is a biodiversity hotspot – a wildflower wonderland

The Queen of Sheeba orchid One of the special things about the southwest of WA is that it’s the opposite of places with rich soil and reliable rain where monocultures rule. Like other zones where nutrients are scare and conditions are variable, evolution produces weird and wonderful ways to fill a lot of little niches with an array of little creatures, and there’s a different plant for every moment. (Some 8,000 species, 75% of which are found nowhere else). It could be argued that the main value of SWWA is its unique biodiversity, since the region is recognized as one of the world’s twenty five, and Australia’s only, biodiversity hotspot, with 1.4% of world-wide endemic plants [Myers et al., 2000]. Of the 4,333 endemic plant species (3.07%) are known to be critically endangered or extinct [DEWHA, 2006].

Total losses due to land clearing: $7.6billion As well as agricultural losses due to salinity and falling rain, land clearing also impact on tourism, biodiversity, and freshwater fisheries (eg marron catches). “Calculating a baseline value for tourism and biodiversity is more difficult than other indicators. Nevertheless we estimate that the tourism, biodiversity and freshwater natural products ISF baseline indicator I6 is given by the sum of current tourism plus the value of biodiversity/tourism loss plus the loss of natural freshwater products, that is $6,950 + $590 + $20 = $7,560 M.” For the global perspective, it could be said that the area has a population of about 2 million people but feeds tens of millions of people: SWWA produces less than 1% of the world’s wheat, less than 6% of the world’s apparel wool, and less than 1% of most other major products such as sheep meat and canola. (Kingwell and Pannell 2005) Since climate models are pretty bad at predicting droughts, the theory that CO2 drives droughts could use a bit of a shake-up. The tree factor changes everything.

REFERENCE Andrich M., and Imberger, J. (2012) The effect of land clearing on rainfall and fresh water resources in Western Australia: A multi-functional sustainability analysis [Available here PDF] Kingwell and Pannell (2005) Economic trends and drivers affecting the Wheatbelt of Western Australia to 2030, Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, CSIRO, 56, 553-561

Attachment 11

Support for AMR becoming a "No-logging Shire"

I am writing in support of Peter Lane's document on the impacts of logging native forests in the Shire of Augusta Margaret River.

Our Shire is rapidly becoming a 'hub' for many types of recreational pursuits, and walking probably ranks at the top of the list, as it is something almost everyone can do in some form. * We estimate that the Cape to Cape Track now receives at least 40 - 50,000 visits per year from people who walk anything from the whole Track to short stretches at a time. These numbers are increasing rapidly each year. Many locals, especially, are out there on a regular basis.

* Each of Lorraine Teasdale's monthly WWWW walks sees 30 - 50 members sampling trails elsewhere in the Shire and beyond. * Though visitors to our region may come primarily for the wine, food, caves and other attractions, they also increasingly wish to go walking in the bush, and the wonderful asset of so much natural bushland that we still have in this shire is a drawcard in itself for many.

* The value of bushwalking for both locals and visitors is now clearly recognised by the AMR Shire itself through its support of projects such as the Wardandi Rail- Trail, the Cape to Cape Track Winter Diversion and the Flinders Bay Cape Leeuwin Trail. This support from our Shire is applauded. * The AMR Shire is also planning to conduct an audit to review the current alignment, trail condition and signage on the Augusta Busselton Heritage Trail with a view to upgrade this trail, acknowledging the recreational value of our beautiful forests further inland.

Logging of native forests does not sit at all well in this picture. Not only does it impact large areas of forest directly, but the associated industrial traffic movements impact heavily on the surrounding area, and destruction of fauna and flora has implications far beyond the logging coups themselves.

People are aware of what is happening when logging takes place, even if it occurs outside their zone of activity, and its continued presence must have a detrimental effect on the perception of the Augusta Margaret River Shire as an attractive place to come to.

I urge the AMR Shire to do what it can to stop the logging of native forests within its boundaries.

Jane Scott 55, Baudin Drive Gnarabup [email protected]

Attachment 12

Fact check: Are 75pc of Australia's living species unknown?

Mon 8 Sep 2014, 6:21am

Australia may be known for its unique plants and animals, but how many do we actually know about?

Jo Harding is the manager of Bush Blitz, a program supported by federal and state government agencies and research institutions, which documents plants and animals around Australia, leading to the discovery of hundreds of new species.

Ms Harding recently told the ABC's RN Breakfast: "There's estimated to be about 75 per cent of Australia's biodiversity that's largely unknown. So there's certainly a lot out there still to find. We've discovered 700 new species so far, that's over the last approximately four years, and we're still counting."

On National Threatened Species Day, ABC Fact Check investigates whether Australia really does only know about a quarter of its plants and animals.

 The claim: Jo Harding, the manager of Bush Blitz, says there's estimated to be about 75 per cent of Australia's biodiversity that's largely unknown  The verdict: Ms Harding's claim checks out.

Undiscovered and undescribed species

The word 'biodiversity' has a complex scientific definition, but generally speaking, it is used as a catch-all phrase for all plants, animals and other living organisms in a particular area, a spokeswoman for Bush Blitz said.

It covers all types of plants (including algae) and fungi as well as vertebrates (such as mammals, reptiles, fish and birds) and invertebrates (such as insects and octopuses) in both marine and land environments.

A recent CSIRO publication on biodiversity says the scientific definition "includes more than just organisms themselves".

"Its definition includes the diversity of the genetic material within each species and the diversity of ecosystems that those species make up, as well as the ecological and evolutionary processes that keep them functioning and adapting," the publication said.

"Biodiversity is not simply a list of species, therefore. It includes the genetic and functional operations that keep the living world working, so emphasising inter-dependence of the elements of nature."

Photo: This fly, called the Bombyliidae Larrpana bushblitz Lambkin n. sp, was discovered in WA's Charles Darwin Reserve in 2009. (Supplied: Bush Blitz)

Professor Kris French, a scientist at the University of Wollongong, tells Fact Check there's also an important difference between 'discovered' and 'described' species.

According to Professor French, an undiscovered species is one that's never been seen before. But an undescribed species, which is more commonly spoken about in scientific literature, is different.

Undescribed species are species that may have been found before, maybe in different areas or by different people, but which haven't been formally identified. It is then up to an expert to examine the specimen to ensure it really is an undescribed species. The expert will then write a description for the species. Once the description of the new species has been established and published, it is called a described specimen.

This means that all described species have been discovered, but not all discovered species have necessarily been described.

Where the 75pc estimate comes from

Ms Harding's claim that about 75 per cent of Australia's biodiversity is unknown is based on a 2009 report published by the federal environment department. It aggregates information from a large number of sources and previous studies to calculate the number of species already discovered and estimate the number of species yet to be discovered both around the world and in Australia.

It determined that Australia had 147,579 "accepted described species", 26 per cent of its estimated total Australian species.

Described Estimated Total Percentage Group Species Species Described Chordates* ~8,128 ~9,088 89 Invertebrates ~98,703 ~320,465 31 Plants ~24,716 26,845 92 Fungi 11,846 50,000 24 Other^ >4,186 ~160,000 3 Total 147,579 ~566,398 26 * includes mammals, birds, reptiles, frogs and fish ^ chiefly micro-organisms

Arthur Chapman, the author of the report, tells Fact Check: "The report relied on published information - firstly in peer reviewed literature, but where that did not exist, in the grey literature, and thirdly on unpublished expert opinion, both in Australia and overseas. In virtually all cases, expert opinion was sought to take advantage of any recent research and studies and for groups where no published estimates existed, and scientist all over the world were fully co-operative."

The report broke down the figures by classification groups, and Mr Chapman said where there were many variabilities and unknowns that made estimation of a total number of species difficult, he provided "a range of values with reasons for the best estimate where possible".

What the experts say

Dr John La Salle, director of the Atlas of Living Australia, says Mr Chapman's report is "the best starting place you've got" for Australian figures. The atlas is funded by the Federal Government and administered by the CSIRO.

Dr La Salle says global literature shows about 1.1 to 1.5 million described species, with estimates for the total number of species in the world ranging from 5 to 10 million. The claim made by Ms Harding falls within this range and Dr La Salle says he feels "very comfortable" that the claim is a "solid estimate".

Professor Nigel Stork, a biologist from Griffith University, also says the claim made by Ms Harding represents a fair estimate. Professor Stork is an expert in invertebrates. "My own work is showing that we have probably only described a tenth of the world's terrestrial arthropods including the insects," he said.

Similarly, Professor French from the University of Wollongong says the claim is not a bad ballpark estimate".

Mr Chapman's report has also been backed by scientists from the Australian Museum. Dave Britton, the branch head of natural sciences, says the report

39 is the most authoritative currently available for information on species numbers in Australia.

Dr Britton says there are some problems when estimating the number of species in an area. One is that the process can be imprecise, because it often involves examining the number of species in a very small area then extrapolating it to develop an estimate for a larger area. He also says there are often cases where the same species has been described multiple times by different experts over hundreds of years of scientific history, and this needs to be accounted for.

Martyn Robinson, a naturalist at the Australian Museum, says another possible method to estimate the number of unknown species is by examining the number of new species published each year in any given group as well as the number of unidentified species in museum collections.

Dr Britton says, in light of these difficulties, Mr Chapman's report is "pretty good" and his estimates are "quite conservative".

Internationally, Mr Chapman's report has been well received. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, refers to Mr Chapman's report as a source of information for its statistics.

When the report was released, naturalist Sir David Attenborough said: "This report will provide a crucial reference point for all those who are acting to protect our planet for future generations."

Mr Chapman's work has also been used as reference material in other scientific literature discussing changes to biodiversity and changes in the numbers of species around the world.

The life we don't know about The experts contacted by Fact Check say when people think of biodiversity, they tend to think of birds, bigger animals, trees and bushes. But much of the biodiversity Ms Harding was speaking of is smaller than that. "The problem is the stuff we don't know about is the small stuff: insects, soil organisms, fungi, bacteria," Dr La Salle said.

Many unknown species are "largely invisible to the average person", said Dr Britton. "They're out there, but they're really tiny." He says finding undescribed species means spending a lot of time looking down a microscope. Professor Stork says there are new ways of examining species that could lead to more undescribed species being found. "These days there is increasing interest too in evolutionary independent species that have been separated from each other by DNA techniques, without necessarily [having] any other morphological characteristics that we can use to tell them apart," he said. Dr Britton says this means that the total number of species in Australia is much more likely to be higher than the estimate made by Mr Chapman, not lower.

The verdict

The scientists and experts who spoke to Fact Check all say it is very hard to count the number of unknown species. But those familiar with Mr Chapman's report say it is a strong piece of scientific literature and likely to be an accurate representation of the scientific community's best estimates. Dr La Salle said: "You can't make a strong case against it." Ms Harding's claim that "there's estimated to be about 75 per cent of Australian biodiversity that's largely unknown" checks out. Sources  Jo Harding, ABC RN Breakfast, July 22, 2014  Bush Blitz website  Department of the Environment, Australian Biological Resources Study, Bush Blitz  Macquarie Dictionary, 'biodiversity'  CSIRO, Biodiversity: Science and solutions for Australia, July 17, 2014  A.D. Chapman, Numbers of Living Species in Australia and the World, September 2009  Atlas of Living Australia website, Background  ABC Rural, Tassie boy discovers new genus of spider, July 23, 2014  IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, 2014

 IUCN Red List of Endangered Species, Table 1: Numbers of threatened species by major groups of organisms (1996 – 2014), July 24, 2014  Peter Garrett, media release, Australia a global leader in biodiversity knowledge, September 29, 2009  Brett Scheffers and others, What we know and don't know about Earth's missing biodiversity, September, 2012 Topics: biological-diversity, environment, animals, science-and-technology, australia First posted Sun at 8:03amSun 7 Sep 2014, 8:03am