Tampa’s Lasting Appeal Multifamily Report Fall 2019

Job Growth Outpaces US Average

Construction Activity Remains Robust

Investment Sales Reach New Cycle Peak TAMPA MULTIFAMILY

Market Analysis Elevated Demand Eclipses Supply Fall 2019 Multifamily demand continues strong in Tampa, boosted by above-trend Contacts population and employment gains. Drawn by the region’s favorable tax Paul Fiorilla environment, companies continue to relocate and expand in the metro, which Director of Research is bolstering economic growth. [email protected] Professional and business services led job gains in the 12 months ending (800) 866-1124 x5764 in September (8,700 jobs). This trend will likely continue, as 20,000 of the Jack Kern metro’s 60,000 openings that same month were for high-skill, high-wage Director of Research and Publications STEM positions. Hiring velocity is also strong in the construction sector, which [email protected] gained 5,300 jobs. This sector was sustained by large developments, including (800) 866-1124 x2444 Jeff Vinik and Bill Gates’ $3 billion Water Street by Tampa Bay district. Bromley Cos.’ $550 million Midtown Tampa mixed-use project is also rising Author near West Shore, while BTI Partners is building the $500 million Adriana Pop Marina District, set to include Tampa’s largest deep-water marina, along with Senior Associate Editor office, retail and 2,400 residences.

A combination of below-average rents and steady economic growth has lured investors to Tampa, where multifamily sales reached $2.9 billion in the first 10 months of 2019, surpassing last year’s cycle peak of $2.6 billion. Developers have also been active, delivering 5,000 units, while another 7,900 units were under construction.

Recent Tampa Transactions

Anchor Riverwalk 500 Harbour Island

City: Tampa, Fla. City: Tampa, Fla. Buyer: The Connor Group Buyer: Northwestern Mutual Real Purchase Price: $123 MM Estate Investors Price per Unit: $312,183 Purchase Price: $103 MM Price per Unit: $440,213 The Courtney at Bay Pines The Boot Ranch

City: St. Petersburg, Fla. City: Palm Harbor, Fla. Buyer: General Services Corp. Buyer: Providence Real Estate Purchase Price: $85 MM Purchase Price: $80 MM Price per Unit: $258,000 Price per Unit: $185,185

On the cover: Photo by ImagesbyK/iStockphoto.com 2 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000

$120,000$180,000 $100,000$160,000 $80,000 $140,000 $60,000 $120,000 $40,000 $100,000 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 $80,000 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20 $60,000 $40,000 National Tampa 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 National Tampa

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 2.8%

2.6% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 r-1 r-1 a a 1.6% M Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 M Jun-1 Sep-1 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 r-1 National Tampa r-1 a a M Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 M Jun-1 Sep-1

National Tampa 3.0%

2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

0.0% National Tampa 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

National Tampa

6,049 Units 7,982 Units

6,049 Units 7,982 Units

25,684 Units Rent Trends

25,684 Units „ Rents in Tampa rose 2.9% year-over-year through October, trailing the 3.2% U.S. rate. The metro’s average rent stood at $1,278, below the $1,476 national figure. A steady pace of new supply in recent Planned Prospective Under Construction years has put downward pressure on occupancy, with the rate for stabilized properties standing at 94.9% as of September, down 40 basis points year-over-year and below the 95.1% national average. Planned Prospective Under Construction

„ Rents$3,000 in the working-class Renter-by-Necessity segment rose 3.7% to $1,081, while Lifestyle rates120 increased 2.1% to $1,486. Demand for both asset classes is sustained by above-trend population $2,500 100 and employment$3,000 gains in the context of continued economic growth. In 2018, Tampa Bay earned120 the ninth $2,000spot on the U.S. Census’ Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in Numeric Growth: 2017 to 2018 list,80 with Hillsborough$2,500 County accounting for almost 27,000 of the nearly 51,500 new residents. 100 $1,500 60 $2,000 80 „ Submarkets$1,000 that saw the strongest year-over-year growth were Upper St. Petersburg (up 9.4%40 to $1,231),$1,500 Largo (up 7.6% to $1,134), Town ‘N’ Country (up 7.5% to $1,154), Pinellas Park (up 7.1%60 to $1,315),$500 Oldsmar (up 6.7% to $1,352) and Gulfport/Lealman (up 6.3% to $1,154). /Davis20 $1,000 40 Island commanded$0 the metro’s highest rents with the average rate up 2.3% to $1,984, followed0 by Downtown$500 Tampa/Ybor2011 City 2012 (up 4% 2013 to $1,788), 2014 Garver 2015 City 2016 (up 1.9% 2017 to $1,728), 2018 Oakford 2019 Park20 (up 0.7% to $1,633), Westchase (up 0.1% to $1,505), and Gandy/ (up 1.2% to $1,487). $0 Volume in Millions Number of Properties 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Tampa vs. National Rent Growth (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) Volume in Millions Number of Properties

5.0%

4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0%

0.0%

National Tampa

Source: YardiMatrix National Tampa 6.0% Tampa Rent Growth by Asset Class (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year)

6.0% 4.0%

4.0% 2.0%

2.0% 0.0%

0.0%

Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity

Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity

Source: YardiMatrix

Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 3 Economic Snapshot

„ Tampa gained 30,800 jobs in the 12 months ending in September, a 2.1% year-over-year increase that outpaced the 1.8% national figure. The metro’s unemployment rate continued its downward trend, standing at 3.5% as of August, below the 3.7% national average.

„ Professional and business services led growth with the addition of 8,700 jobs. This trend is set to continue. As of September 2019, nearly 20,000 of the metro’s 60,000 jobs were in high-skill, high-wage STEM fields.

„ Construction added 5,300 jobs, boosted$180,000 by mega-developments, including the $3 billion Water Street mixed-use project, the largest real estate$160,000 venture in the market. A partnership between Tampa Bay $140,000 Lightning hockey team owner Jeff Vinik$120,000 and Microsoft founder Bill Gates, the new development is $100,000 set to bring 3.5 million square feet of real$80,000 estate by 2026 or 2027, enough space to eventually house 13,000 workers and 6,000 residents. Bromley$60,000 Cos.’ $550 million Midtown Tampa project is also picking $40,000 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 up speed near the West Shore, where it will bring 011.8 million01 017square feet of office, residential, hotel, 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20 retail and event space. The $500 million mixed-use Westshore Marina District, with BTI Partners as the National Tampa master developer, is also underway, and will include Tampa’s largest deep-water marina, office, retail

and 2,4001 2residences.3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 Tampa vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year)

2.8%

2.6%

2.4%

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%

1.6% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 r-1 r-1 a a M Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 M Jun-1 Sep-1

National Tampa

Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted)

3.0% Tampa Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) 2.5% Current Employment Year Change Code2.0% Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment %

601.5%Professional and Business Services 284 17.6% 8,700 3.2% 15 Mining, Logging and Construction 98 6.1% 5,300 5.7% 1.0% 55 Financial Activities 135 8.4% 4,500 3.5% 0.5% 40 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 309 19.1% 4,100 1.3% 700.0%Leisure and Hospitality 187 11.6% 3,800 2.1% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD 65 Education and Health Services 249 15.4% 2,500 1.0% 80 Other Services National 54 Tampa 3.3% 1,500 2.8% 30 Manufacturing 87 5.4% 1,500 1.8% 50 Information 27 1.7% -300 -1.1% 90 Government 186 11.5% -800 -0.4%

Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics

6,049 Units 7,982 Units

Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 4

25,684 Units

Planned Prospective Under Construction

$3,000 120

$2,500 100

$2,000 80

$1,500 60

$1,000 40

$500 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Volume in Millions Number of Properties

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

National Tampa

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Demographics Affordability

„ The median home price in Tampa rose to $185,415 in 2018, up 8.1% since 2017, and double the 2011 level. Owning remained more affordable than renting, with the average mortgage payment equating to 16% of the area median income, while the average rent accounted for 27%.

„ To address housing affordability issues, Hillsborough County has approved the creation of a trust fund that would spend $10 million every year, both as a subsidy and incentive to build and preserve affordable housing. Meanwhile, San Francisco-based Divvy has entered the Tampa Bay market with a rent-to-own program meant to help would-be homeowners save enough for a down payment.

Tampa Rent vs. Own Affordability as a Percentage of Income 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Rent/Income Mort/Income Rent/Income Mort/Income

Sources: YardiMatrix, Moody’s Analytics

Tampa Median Home Price

$200,000 $200,000 $175,000 $175,000 $150,000 $150,000 $125,000 $125,000 $100,000 $100,000 $75,000 $75,000 $50,000 $50,000 $25,000 $25,000 $0 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Moody’s Analytics

Population Tampa vs. National Population

„ Tampa gained 51,438 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 residents in 2018, representing a 1.7% increase, well above National 318,386,421 320,742,673 323,071,342 325,147,121 327,167,434 the 0.6% national average.

„ Between 2014 and 2018, Tampa 2,912,875 2,969,251 3,034,215 3,091,225 3,142,663 the metro’s population rose Metro by nearly 230,000 residents, representing a 7.9% increase. Sources: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics

Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 5 $180,000 $180,000 $160,000 $160,000 $140,000 $140,000 $120,000 $120,000 $100,000 $100,000 $80,000 $80,000 $60,000 $60,000 $40,000 $40,000 1 2 3 5 6 1 2 3 9 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 01 01 017 20 20 2 2014 20 2 20 2 20 20182 202014 20 2 2 2018 20

Supply National Tampa National Tampa

1 2 „ 3 4 Some5 6 7,90071 28 units39 4 were5 6under7 8 construction9 in Tampa as of October, more than 2,400 of which are in 201 201 201 201 201 201 201201 201 201201 201 201 201 201 201 201 Opportunity Zones. Most of the new projects cater to Lifestyle renters, with only 705 units reserved as affordable. As of October 2019, 5,000 units came online, representing 2.3% of total stock, and exceeding the 1.9% national average. 2.8% 2.8% „ Multifamily2.6% development in Tampa has surpassed 5,000 units per year since 2017, when it reached a cycle 2.6% peak of 5,913 units. As of October this year, the metro’s pipeline also included 32,000 units in the planning 2.4% 2.4% and permitting stages. Absorption is expected to keep up, bolstered by strong demand, especially in 2.2% 2.2% Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. These areas are seeing significant employment and population gains, which,2.0% coupled with limited developable land, continue to fuel rent growth. Moreover, Hillsborough 2.0% County ranked 10th in the U.S. among individual counties for population growth in 2018. 1.8% 1.8% „ Gandy/Ballast1.6% Point had 1,225 units underway through October 2019, due to the appeal of the upcoming 1.6% Marina District development8 and its8 easy access8 to downtown8 Tampa. Downtown9 St.9 Petersburg,9 a r-1 r-1 8 8 a 8 8 9 a 9 9 millennial magnet, hadM 902 unitsJun-1 underway, followedSep-1 by Davenport/HainesDec-1 M City, withJun-1 771 units.Sep-1 r-1 r-1 a a M Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 M Jun-1 Sep-1 National Tampa Tampa vs. National CompletionsNational as aTampa Percentage of Total Stock (as of October 2019)

3.0%

3.0% 2.5%

2.5% 2.0%

2.0% 1.5%

1.5% 1.0%

1.0% 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

0.0% National Tampa 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD Source: YardiMatrix National Tampa

Development Pipeline (as of October 2019) Tampa Completions (as of October 2019)

$180,000 6,049 Units 7,982 Units $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 6,049 Units 7,982 Units $100,000 $80,000 25,684 Units $60,000 $40,000 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20 25,684 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction National Tampa

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 $3,000Planned Prospective Under Construction 120

Source:$2,500 YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix 100

$2,000 80 $3,000 120 2.8% $1,500 60 $2,500 Tampa Multifamily100 | Fall 2019 6 $1,000 2.6% 40 $2,000 80 $500 20 $1,500 2.4% 60 $0 0 $1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.2% 2016 2017 201840 2019

Volume in Millions Number of Properties $500 2.0% 20 $0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20171.8% 2018 2019 5.0% Volume in Millions Number of Properties 4.0% 1.6% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 3.0% r-1 r-1 a a M Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 M Jun-1 Sep-1 5.0% 2.0%

4.0% 1.0% National Tampa

3.0% 0.0%

2.0% 3.0% 1.0% National Tampa

0.0% 2.5%

6.0% 2.0%

National Tampa 4.0% 1.5%

2.0% 6.0% 1.0%

0.0% 0.5% 4.0% 0.0%

2.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity

National Tampa 0.0%

Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity

6,049 Units 7,982 Units

25,684 Units

Planned Prospective Under Construction

$3,000 120

$2,500 100

$2,000 80

$1,500 60

$1,000 40

$500 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Volume in Millions Number of Properties

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

National Tampa

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20

National Tampa

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201

2.8%

2.6%

2.4%

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%

1.6% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 r-1 r-1 a a M Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 M Jun-1 Sep-1

National Tampa

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

National Tampa

Transactions

„ Nearly $2.9 billion in multifamily assets traded in Tampa in 2019 through October, surpassing the annual cycle peak of 2018, when sales totaled $2.6 billion. As of October 2019, the average price per 6,049 Units unit reached a new high at $154,816,7,982 Unitsbut remained below the $162,889 national figure.

„ Drawn to the growth in the metro’s stock and prospects for higher rents, investors focused on a broad range of assets, from stabilized Class A communities in infill locations, for which acquisition yields start at 4.5%, to suburban Class C assets, with a value-add component and first-year returns as high as 7.5%.

25,684 Units „ In November, Olympus Property’s $131 million acquisition of Icon Harbour Island, a 340-unit luxury high- rise in Hyde Park/Davis Island, closed in November as the largest multifamily deal in Tampa Bay’s history. The Related Group sold the property for $386,765 per unit.

Planned Prospective Under Construction

Tampa Sales Volume and Number of Properties Sold (as of October 2019)

$3,000 120

$2,500 100

$2,000 80

$1,500 60

$1,000 40

$500 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Volume in Millions Number of Properties

Source: YardiMatrix

5.0% Top Submarkets for Transaction Volume1 4.0% Tampa vs. National Sales Price per Unit

Submarket Volume $180,000 3.0% ($MM) $160,000 Mainlands2.0% 267 $140,000 $120,000 Hyde1.0% Park/Davis Island 240 $100,000 Rocky Creek 239 0.0% $80,000 Riverview/Valrico 197 $60,000 Clair–Mel City 172 $40,000 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 Safety Harbor 167 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20 National Tampa Lakeland Highlands 166 National Tampa

Carrollwood Village 165 Source: YardiMatrix 6.0% Source:1 YardiMatrix2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 1 From November 2018 to October 2019

4.0%

2.8%2.0%

2.6% 0.0% Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 7 2.4%

2.2% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity

2.0%

1.8%

1.6% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 r-1 r-1 a a M Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 M Jun-1 Sep-1

National Tampa

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

National Tampa

6,049 Units 7,982 Units

25,684 Units

Planned Prospective Under Construction

$3,000 120

$2,500 100

$2,000 80

$1,500 60

$1,000 40

$500 20

$0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Volume in Millions Number of Properties

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

National Tampa

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity News in the Metro Brought to you by:

Get the latest in local real estate news on Multi-HousingNews.com

Related Group Seals Construction Begins Tampa’s Largest On Sarasota Luxury Multifamily Deal Condo Tower

Olympus Property paid GK Development more than $131 million for commenced work on the the 21-story luxury asset in 18-story building that Tampa’s Harbour Island. will also incorporate two existing structures dating from the 1920s.

Class B Community InvestRes Sells Trades for $37M Portfolio for $29M

The partnership buying the The two communities in asset assumed a $21.4 Bradenton, Fla., total 297 million Freddie Mac loan units, with one property from the seller of the 356- designated fully affordable. unit community.

Tampa Community RADCO Pays $18M Commands $69M For Community

The 318-unit Class A The new owner plans residential property was to invest $2.8 million to developed in 2017 through reposition the property a joint venture of Glenmont through interior and Capital Management and exterior upgrades. Arlington Properties Inc.

Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 8 Tampa Submarkets

Area # Submarket Area # Submarket Area # Submarket 1 24 Lake Magdalene 45 Pinellas Park 2 Hyde Park/Davis Island 25 46 Mainlands 3 Gandy/Ballast Point 26 47 Feather Sound/High Point 4 /Bayside 27 Del Rio/ 48 Largo 5 28 Harney 49 Belleair 6 29 Temple Terrace 50 Clearwater Beach 7 30 University of South 51 Clearwater 8 Ruskin 31 University Square 52 Coachman 11 Clair–Mel City 32 Livingston 53 Safety Harbor 12 Orient Park 33 /Pebble Creek 54 Dunedin 13 34 Thonotosassa 55 Palm Harbor/Tarpon Springs 14 Lakeland Highlands 35 Brandon/Seffner 56 Oldsmar 15 36 Riverview/Valrico 57 Lake Wales 16 Egypt Lake 37 Plant City 58 Davenport/Haines City 17 Winter Haven 38 Bartow 59 Land O'Lakes/Odessa 18 Garver City 39 Sun City Center 60 Zephyr Hills 19 Rocky Creek 40 Downtown St. Petersburg 61 Dade City 20 Town ‘n’ Country 41 Upper St. Petersburg 62 New Port Richey 21 Mullis City 42 Gulfport/Lealman 63 Port Richey 22 Carrollwood Village 43 St. Pete Beach/Pasadena 65 Spring Hill 23 Westchase 44 Seminole/Indian Shores 66 Brooksville

Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 9 Definitions

Lifestyle households (renters by choice) have wealth sufficient to own but have chosen to rent. Discretionary households, most typically a retired couple or single professional, have chosen the flexibility associated with renting over the obligations of ownership.

Renter-by-Necessity households span a range. In descending order, household types can be:

„ A young-professional, double-income-no-kids household with substantial income but without wealth needed to acquire a home or condominium;

„ Students, who also may span a range of income capability, extending from affluent to barely getting by;

„ Lower-middle-income (“gray-collar”) households, composed of office workers, policemen, firemen, technical workers, teachers, etc.;

„ Blue-collar households, which may barely meet rent demands each month and likely pay a disproportionate share of their income toward rent;

„ Subsidized households, which pay a percentage of household income in rent, with the balance of rent paid through a governmental agency subsidy. Subsidized households, while typically low income, may extend to middle-income households in some high-cost markets, such as New York City;

„ Military households, subject to frequency of relocation.

These differences can weigh heavily in determining a property’s ability to attract specific renter market segments. The five-star resort serves a very different market than the down-and-outer motel. Apartments are distinguished similarly, but distinctions are often not clearly definitive without investigation. TheYardi® Matrix Context rating eliminates that requirement, designating property market positions as:

Market Position Improvements Ratings Discretionary A+ / A High Mid-Range A- / B+ Low Mid-Range B / B- Workforce C+ / C / C- / D

The value in application of the Yardi® Matrix Context rating is that standardized data provides consistency; information is more meaningful because there is less uncertainty. The user can move faster and more efficiently, with more accurate end results.

The Yardi® Matrix Context rating is not intended as a final word concerning a property’s status—either improvements or location. Rather, the result provides reasonable consistency for comparing one property with another through reference to a consistently applied standard.

To learn more about Yardi® Matrix and subscribing, please visit www.yardimatrix.com or call Ron Brock, Jr., at 480-663-1149 x2404.

Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 10 How do you find properties to buy or develop?

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Tampa Multifamily | Fall 2019 12