Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

5. Future Demand Forecast

5.1 Future demand forecast model based on the results of existing studies

5.1.1 Updated Demand Forecast (1) Method and Framework In this updated demand forecast, microscopic analysis and macroscopic analysis, which are the same as carried out in the SAPROF Review Report, are applied. However, algorithm of these analyses is slightly different from each other. Coefficient factors including containerization ratio, empty container ratio, unit weight of TEU and 20’/40’ ratio are used in the macroscopic analysis in this forecast. a) Flowchart of Demand Forecast Flowchart of the Demand Forecast is shown below.

National/Regional Development Plan Socio-Economic Framework ･Population Macroscopic Estimation Microscopic Estimation ･ ･GDP (Kenya, its neighboring countries) General Cargo (ton) ･Each Commodity ･ Production & Consumption Structure (Industry, Agriculture, etc.) 1. Review of Current Situation Review of Port Statistics 2. Determination of Future Review of Port Statistics Socio-Economic Framework

Analysis Analysis Analysis on Specific ･Regression Analysis ･Regression Analysis Commodities by means of (Correlation Analysis) ･Time-series Analysis Interview survey and other methods

Future General Cargo (ton) Future Cargo Volume by Commodity

Determination of Cargo Throughput at the Port Convert to Container Analysis of Containerization at the Port

Container Throughput at the Port (TEU)

Figure 5.1.1 Flowchart of Demand Forecast Source: JICA Study Team b) Socio-economic Framework in Updated Demand Forecast Table 5.1.1 shows socio-economic framework in updated demand forecast. The latest indices obtained from IMF and UN are introduced. The specified figures which have been used in SAPROF Review are adopted and the figures in 2031-2035 are added for the updated demand forecast.

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Table 5.1.1 Socio-economic Frameworks in Updated Demand Forecast Item Specified Figure Source 6.0 (2015-2018) IMF “World Economic Outlook” 5.0 (2019-2024) (Constant Prices/Base Year: 2009) Base Case 4.0 (2025-2030) Based on a prospect of Kenyan 3.0 (2031-2035) economy’s slowdown after 2018. 7.0 (2015-2018) GDP (Kenya) 6.0 (2019-2024) High Case [%] 5.0 (2025-2030) 4.0 (2031-2035) 5.0 (2015-2018) 4.0 (2019-2024) Low Case 3.0 (2025-2030) 2.0 (2031-2035) 46,749 (2015) UN, Medium Variant Projection, World 52,906 (2020) Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision Population (Kenya) 59,386 (2025) [1,000] 66,306 (2030) 73,666 (2035) 7.0 (2015-2018) IMF “World Economic Outlook” 6.0 (2019-2024) (Constant Prices/Base Year: 2002) Base Case 5.0 (2025-2030) Based on a prospect of Ugandan 4.0 (2031-2035) economy’s slowdown after 2018. 8.0 (2015-2018) GDP (Uganda) 7.0 (2019-2024) High Case [%] 6.0 (2025-2030) 5.0 (2031-2035) 5.0 (2015-2018) 4.0 (2019-2024) Low Case 3.0 (2025-2030) 2.0 (2031-2035) c) Microscopic Analysis Cargo volumes by commodities are analyzed based on both time series analysis and regression analysis utilizing the above captioned frameworks. The details of forecasting methods and premises utilized in the microscopic analysis are shown in Chapter 5.1.2 Activity 1 & 2. d) Macroscopic Analysis Mombasa Port is the biggest international commercial port that handles all container traffic to and from her hinterland including Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Tanzania, etc. Thus, an assumption that the volume of inbound containers and the volume of outbound containers including empty containers should be the same volume is applied. At first, regression analysis with total imported general cargoes in weight (ton) and aforementioned economic frameworks is conducted. This analysis reveals a strong correlation, and the general cargo volume can be projected using a linear regression equation. In the next step, containerization ratio, unit weight of a container and a TEU-BOX ratio by time series approach are introduced to convert container weight to TEU and to identify the number of boxes into 40ft. and 20ft. types. The details of forecasting methods and figures utilized in this stage are shown in Chapter 5.1.2 Activity 3 & 4. As for transit cargoes, imported/transit cargo volumes in TEU and GDP of Uganda show a strong correlation, and exported/transit cargo volumes in TEU are almost equivalent to 22% of total exported

5-2 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast cargo volumes in TEU. Based on these, transit imported/exported cargoes in TEU are projected. The details of forecasting methods and figures utilized in this stage are shown in Chapter 5.1.2 Activity 5 & 6. As for domestic cargoes, estimate is made by subtracting transit cargo volumes from total figures of each import and export. The details of forecasting methods and figures in this stage are shown in Chapter 5.1.2 Activity 7 & 8. Transshipment volumes are still small (16,269 TEUs in 2013) at the Port. However, KPA is trying to promote transshipment cargoes, and it is expected that the removal of the transshipment bond, announced in June 2013, encourages the further increase of transshipment traffic. The Study Team, therefore, applied higher growth rate to transshipment traffic. Reefer containers were not considered in updated demand forecast, but the Study Team uses the following assumption based on the limited records during January to May in 2013: Applied assumption for reefer container is: a. Import: 0.1% of total number of full-20ft.-containers, 1.3% of total number of full-40ft.-containers; and. b. Export: 0.3% of total number of full-20ft.-containers, 1.7% of total number of full-40ft.-containers. (2) Results by Microscopic Approach Table 5.1.2 shows demand forecast of general cargoes. Details are shown in Table 5.1.10 and Table 5.1.11.

Table 5.1.2 Future Demand of General Cargo (Unit: 1,000 tons)

2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Base Case 9,113 9,971 14,335 19,124 24,034 28,407 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.09 1.57 2.10 2.64 3.12 Micro (Import/ High Case 9,113 10,099 15,372 21,596 28,534 35,459 General Cargo/ton) Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.11 1.69 2.37 3.13 3.89 Low Case 9,113 9,842 13,345 16,875 20,131 22,585 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.08 1.46 1.85 2.21 2.48

Base Case 1,998 2,107 2,652 3,262 4,004 4,666 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.05 1.33 1.63 2.00 2.34 Micro (Export/ High Case 1,997 2,128 2,818 3,641 4,691 5,742 General Cargo/ton) Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.07 1.41 1.82 2.35 2.88 Low Case 1,997 2,085 2,495 2,917 3,408 3,779 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.04 1.25 1.46 1.71 1.89 Source: JICA Study Team

(3) Results by Macroscopic Approach Table 5.1.3 shows full (loaded) container demand forecast. Table 5.1.4 shows total container demand of Mombasa Port. Details (Base Case) are shown in Table 5.1.12.

5-3 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

Table 5.1.3 Full (Loaded) Container Demand

(Unit: 1,000 TEUs)

2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Base Case 482 551 826 1,140 1,473 1,780 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.14 1.71 2.37 3.06 3.69 Macro High Case 482 558 888 1,292 1,756 2,232 (Import/Container/ full) Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.16 1.84 2.68 3.64 4.63 Low Case 482 543 767 1,001 1,227 1,407 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.13 1.59 2.08 2.55 2.92

Base Case 131 145 183 226 279 326 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.11 1.40 1.73 2.13 2.49 Macro (Export/ High Case 131 146 195 253 327 402 Container/full) Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.12 1.49 1.93 2.50 3.07 Low Case 131 143 172 202 236 263 Index (Figure as of 2014 is 1.0) 1.0 1.09 1.31 1.54 1.81 2.01 Source: Study Team

Table 5.1.4 Total Container Demand (Unit: 1,000 TEUs) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 Base Case 1,154 1,266 1,384 1,509 1,622 1,741 2,412 3,131 3,789 Updated High Case 1,170 1,298 1,436 1,584 1,723 1,869 2,727 3,717 4,724 Low Case 1,139 1,233 1,332 1,435 1,525 1,619 2,126 2,623 3,016 SAPROF Review 987 1,097 1,214 1,389 1,472 1,615 1,740 1,878 2,634 3,442 Actual 894 1,012 Source: Study Team

5-4 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

5.1.2 Demand forecast model Demand Forecast Model of the Base Case for import, export and transit cargoes including container cargoes is shown below.

Activity 1 Forecast Model of Import Cargo by Commodity No. Commodity Forecasting Method General Cargo 1 Iron & Steel Regression Analysis with GDP (Kenya) Y=0.5567X-909.59 ( R=0.9577) 1,600

1,400 y = 0.5567x - 909.59 1,200 R² = 0.9171 1,000

800

600

400

200

0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

2 Rice Consumption Volume=Population x 10 kg/capita/year (This figure is an averaged volume in the last 10 years/Year 2004 to 2013) Future production in Kenya is given by the Ministry of Agriculture, “National Rice Development Strategy (2008-2018)”. Required import volume = Consumption - Production 3 Sugar Consumption Volume = Population x 20 kg/ capita/ year (This figure is an averaged volume in the last 9 years/Year 2004 to 2012) Production has been stable for many years, approximately 500,000 ton/ year. Required import volume = Consumption - Production 4 Chem. & An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). Insecticides 5 Plastic An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). 6 M/Vehicle & Regression Analysis with GDP (Kenya) Lorries Y=0.2001X-327.48 ( R=0.9270)

5-5 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

No. Commodity Forecasting Method 500 450 y = 0.2001x - 327.48 R² = 0.8593 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

7 Paper and Regression Analysis with GDP (Kenya) Paper Y=0.1676X-250.92(R= 0.8351) Products 600

500

400 y = 0.1676x - 250.92 R² = 0.6974

300

200

100

0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

8 Cereal Flour An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). 9 Fertilizer An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). 10 Clothing This item is included in Others (Item 20). 11 Ceramic This item is included in Others (Item 20). 12 Edible This item is included in Others (Item 20). Vegetables 13 Vehicle Tires This item is included in Others (Item 20). & Spares 14 Tallow & Oil This item is included in Others (Item 20). in Cases 15 Malt This item is included in Others (Item 20). 16 Maize in Bags Averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). 17 Wheat in Averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). Bags 18 Agri.&Other This item is included in Others (Item 20). Machineries 19 Other Cereals This item is included in Others (Item 20). in Bags

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No. Commodity Forecasting Method 20 Others Regression Analysis with GDP (Kenya) Y=2.4136X-3,752.8 (R= 0.9425) 6,000 y = 2.4136x - 3752.8 5,000 R² = 0.8883

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

No. Commodity Forecasting Method Dry Bulk 21 Wheat in Bulk Per capita consumption by Regression Analysis with GDP (Kenya) Y=0.0116X-5.8452 (R= 0.8501) 60.00 y = 0.0116x + 5.8452 R² = 0.7226 50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Consumption Volume = Population x Per capita consumption/year Production : An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2009 to 2013) Required import volume = Consumption – Production

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No. Commodity Forecasting Method 22 Clinker Regression Analysis with GDP ( Kenya) Y=1.3696X-2,886.8 ( R=0.9736) 2,500 y = 1.3696x - 2886.8 R² = 0.9478 2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

23 Fertilizer in Future import volumes will be future consumption volumes because of no production in Bulk Kenya. Consumption volume: Requirement studied by "Kenya Fertilizer Assessment by IFDC 2012" 24 Coal Regression Analysis with GDP ( Kenya) Y=0.1458X-197.67 ( R=0.8772) 500 450 400 y = 0.1458x - 197.67 350 R² = 0.7695 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

25 Other Cereals An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). in Bulk 26 Maize in Bulk Per capita consumption: An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (=87.34kg/Year 2009 to 2013) Consumption volume = Population x Per capita consumption/year Production: Estimated using an elastic value which is calculated based on the difference between rates of the import volume and the GDP in Kenya. (Elasticity = 0.45 for the last decade) Required import volume = Consumption - Production 27 Others Estimated using an elastic value which is calculated based on the difference between rates of the import volume and the GDP in Kenya. (Elasticity = 1.66 for the last decade)

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No. Commodity Forecasting Method Liquid Bulk 28 P.O.L Regression Analysis with GDP (Kenya) Y=1.4877X-700.19 (R= 0.9460) 7,000 y = 1.4877x + 700.19 6,000 R² = 0.8949

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

29 Other Liquid Regression Analysis with GDP (Kenya) Bulk Y=0.2577X-54.253 (R= 0.9315) 1000 900 y = 0.2577x - 54.253 R² = 0.8676 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

5-9 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

Activity 2 Forecast Model of Export Cargo by Commodity No. Commodity Forecasting Method General Cargo 1 Tea Regression Analysis with GDP (Export partners) Y=330.63X+176.8 (R= 0.8295) 600

y = 330.63x + 176.8 500 R² = 0.6881

400

300

200

100

0 0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200

2 Soda Ash Estimated using an elastic value which is calculated based on the difference between rates of the import volume and the GDP in export partners. (Elasticity = 1.30 for the last decade) 3 Coffee Estimated using an elastic value which is calculated based on the difference between rates of the import volume and the GDP in export partners. (Elasticity = 0.76 for the last decade) 4 Maize This item is included in Others (Item 18). 5 Fish and This item is included in Others (Item 18). Crustacean 6 Tobacco & This item is included in Others (Item 18). Cigarettes 7 Beans, Peas, This item is included in Others (Item 18). Pulses 8 Iron & Steel This item is included in Others (Item 18). 9 Cloths This item is included in Others (Item 18). 10 Oil Seeds This item is included in Others (Item 18). 11 Cotton This item is included in Others (Item 18). 12 Hides & Skins This item is included in Others (Item 18). 13 Sisal This item is included in Others (Item 18). 14 Cement in This item is included in Others (Item 18). Bags 15 Cashew Nuts This item is included in Others (Item 18). 16 Rice This item is included in Others (Item 18). 17 Tinned Fruits, This item is included in Others (Item 18). Vegetables & Juices

5-10 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

No. Commodity Forecasting Method 18 Others Regression Analysis with GDP (Export partners) Y=1,209.6X-298.14 ( R=0.9782) 1000 900 y = 1209.6x - 298.14 R² = 0.9569 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200

Dry Bulk 19 Soda Ash in An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). Bulk 20 Cement in An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). Bulk 21 Flourspar An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). 22 Other Dry An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). Bulk Liquid Bulk 23 Bulk Oil An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014). 24 Bunkers An averaged volume in the latest 5 years (Year 2010 to 2014).

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Activity 3 Container Volumes (Import/ Full) and Identification of 20’/ 40’ Containers No. Items Analysis Equation/Method Note “1” General Cargo(Import) Regression with GDP Y=3.1585X-3,827.0 Figure 5.1.2 (Kenya) ( R=0.9945) “2” Containerization Ratio Time Series Analysis Y=0.1077ln( X-2000)-0.5315 Figure 5.1.4 ( R=0.9354) “3” Unit weight [ton/TEU] An Averaged Figure in the 13.5 ( Constant) Table 5.1.7 last 12 years “4” Volume of Container =”1”x”2”/”3” (Import/Full) [TEU] “5” Coefficient Time Series Analysis Y=0.0089X-16.496 (R=0.9326) Figure 5.1.5 (TEU to Box) “6” Volume of Container Y=”4”-“4”/”5” Import/Full/40’) [Box] “7” Volume of Container Y=”6”x2 (Import/Full/40’) [TEU] “8” Volume of Container Y=”4”-“7” (Import/Full/20’) [TEU],[Box] “9” Empty Container Ratio An Averaged Figure in the 0.04 ( Constant) for 40’ Table 5.1.8 last 9 years 0.02 ( Constant) for 20’ “10” Volume of Container Y=”6”x0.04 (Import/Empty/40’) [Box] “11” Volume of Container Y=“7”x0.04 (Import/Empty/40’) [TEU] “12” Volume of Container Y=”8”x0.02 ( Import/Empty/20’) [TEU],[Box]

Activity 4 Container Volumes (Export/ Full) and Identification of 20’/ 40’ Containers No. Items Analysis Equation/Method Note “13” General Cargo (Export) Regression with GDP Y=3,232.9X-335.0 Figure 5.1.3 ( Export Partners) ( 0.9649) “14” Containerization Ratio A Figure at Year 2013 0.95 ( Constant) Figure 5.1.4

“15” Unit weight [ton/TEU] An Averaged Figure in the 20.0 ( Constant) Table 5.1.7 last 12 years “16” Volume of Container =”13”x”14”/”15” (Export/Full) [TEU] “17” Coefficient An Averaged Figure in the 1.30 ( Constant) Table 5.1.8 (TEU to Box) last 10 years “18” Volume of Container Y=”16”-“16”/1.30 (Export/Full/40’) [Box] “19” Volume of Container Y=”18”x2 (Export/Full/40’) [TEU] “20” Volume of Container Y=”16”-“19” (Export/Full/20’) [TEU],[Box]

5-12 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

Activity 5 Container Volumes (Transit/Import/Full) and Identification of 20’/40’ Containers No. Items Analysis Equation/Method Note “21” General Cargo Regression with GDP Y=10.045X-82,800 Figure 5.1.6 (Transit/Import/Full) (Uganda) (R=0.9787) “5” Coefficient Time Series Analysis Y=0.0089X-16.496 (R=0.9326) Figure 5.1.5 (TEU to Box) “22” Volume of Container Y=”21”-“21”/”5” (Transit/Import/Full/40’) [Box] “23” Volume of Container Y=”22”x2 (Transit/Import/Full/40’) [TEU] “24” Volume of Container Y=”21”-“23” (Transit/Import/Full/20’) [TEU],[Box] Note: Empty containers can be obtained through same manner of “Activity 3 Container Volumes (Import/ Full) and Identification of 20’/ 40’ Containers”.

Activity 6 Container Volumes (Transit/Export/Full) and Identification of 20’/40’ Containers No. Items Analysis Equation/Method Note “25” General Cargo Cargo Volume is 22% of Y=”13”x0.22 Table 5.1.9 (Transit/Export)[TON] total export cargoes. “14” Containerized Ratio A Figure at Year 2013 0.95 ( Constant) Table 5.1.6

“15” Unit weight [ton/TEU] An Averaged Figure in the 20.0 ( Constant) Table 5.1.7 last 12 years “26” Volume of Container =”25”x”14”/”15” (Transit/Export/Full) [TEU] “17” Coefficient An Averaged Figure in the 1.30 ( Constant) Table 5.1.8 (TEU to Box) last 10 years “27” Volume of Container Y=”26”-“26”/1.30 (Transit/Export/Full/40’) [Box] “28” Volume of Container Y=”27”x2 (Transit/Export/Full/40’) [TEU] “29” Volume of Container Y=”26”-“28” (Transit/Export/Full/20’) [TEU],[Box] Note: Empty containers can be obtained through same manner of “Activity 3 Container Volumes (Import/ Full) and Identification of 20’/ 40’ Containers”.

5-13 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

Activity 7 Container Volumes (Domestic/Import/Full) and Identification of 20’/40’ Containers No. Items Analysis Equation/Method Note “30” Volume of Container =”4”-“23” (Domestic/ Import/ Full) [TEU] “5” Coefficient Time Series Analysis Y=0.0089X-16.496 Table 5.1.5 ( TEU to Box) (R=0.9326) “31” Volume of Container Y=”30”-“30”/”5” (Domestic/ Import/ Full/ 40’) [Box] “32” Volume of Container Y=”31”x2 (Import/ Full/ 40’) [TEU] “33” Volume of Container Y=”30”-“32” (Import/ Full/ 20’) [TEU],[Box]

Activity 8 Container Volumes (Domestic/Export/full) and Identification of 20’/40’ Containers No. Items Analysis Equation/Method Note “34” Volume of Container =”16”-“26” ( Domestic/ Export/ full) [TEU] “17” Coefficient An Averaged Figure in 1.30 ( Constant) Table 5.1.8 ( TEU to Box) the last 10 years “35” Volume of Container Y=”34”-“34”/1.30 ( Domestic/ Export/ full/ 40’) [Box] “36” Volume of Container Y=”35”x2 ( Domestic/ Export/ full/ 40’) [TEU] “37” Volume of Container Y=”34”-“36” ( Import/ full/ 20’) [TEU],[Box]

5-14 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

Table 5.1.5 Annual Averaged Cargo Weight of each Category

GDP(KSh billion) General Cargo Year Constant Price Import Export Total Base year: 2009 1,000 ton 1,000 ton 1,000 ton 2001 2,145 3,260 1,039 4,299 2002 2,156 3,056 1,118 4,174 2003 2,226 3,246 1,089 4,335 2004 2,320 3,791 1,207 4,998 2005 2,447 3,797 1,336 5,133 2006 2,585 4,263 1,369 5,632 2007 2,791 5,074 1,576 6,650 2008 2,780 5,425 1,944 7,369 2009 2,853 6,172 1,443 7,615 2010 3,099 6,513 1,777 8,290 2011 3,334 7,322 1,975 9,297 2012 3,488 8,057 1,872 9,929 2013 3,646 8,646 2,068 10,714 2014 3,841 9,113 1,998 11,111 Source: IMF and KPA Data

9,000 y = 3.1585x - 3827 8,000 R² = 0.9891 7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000 2,000

1,000

0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Figure 5.1.2 Regression Analysis of General Cargo (Import)

3,500

3,000 y = 3232.9x - 335 R² = 0.9311 2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200

Figure 5.1.3 Regression Analysis of General Cargo (Export)

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Table 5.1.6 Containerization Ratio (Containerized Cargo/ General Cargo) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Import 0.58 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.72 0.77 0.80 0.75 0.77 0.80 0.82 0.78 0.78 Export 0.86 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.90 0.92 0.87 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 Total 0.68 0.70 0.75 0.79 0.78 0.82 0.82 0.79 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.82 0.83 Source: KPA

0.90 y = 0.1077ln(x) + 0.5315 0.80 R² = 0.875 0.70

0.60 0.50

0.40 0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Figure 5.1.4 Containerization Ratio by Time Series Analysis (Import) Note: Containerization Ratio of Export cannot be obtained by this method so that fixed number “0.95” is adopted

Table 5.1.7 Unit Weight of Containers Import Cargo Export Cargo Year Containerized Cargo Container Unit Weight Containerized Cargo Container Unit Weight 1,000 ton TEU ton/TEU 1,000 ton TEU ton/TEU

2002 1,624 127,424 12.7 1,466 75,765 19.3 2003 2,228 159,379 14.0 1,135 78,460 14.5 2004 2,599 189,911 13.7 1,669 90,539 18.4 2005 2,645 193,223 13.7 1,680 94,120 17.8 2006 2,970 217,869 13.6 1,625 86,317 18.8 2007 3,761 277,792 13.5 1,934 101,314 19.1 2008 3,959 292,308 13.5 1,996 102,912 19.4 2009 4,086 301,460 13.6 1,952 95,842 20.4 2010 4,591 338,842 13.5 2,218 110,314 20.1 2011 5,226 385,879 13.5 2,337 115,303 20.3 2012 5,954 441,067 13.5 2,626 120,712 21.8 2013 5,974 441,004 13.5 2,690 129,522 20.8 2014 6,524 482,055 13.5 2,791 130,757 21.3 Average 13.5 Average 19.4 Determination 13.5 Determination 20.0 Source: KPA

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Table 5.1.8 Transform Coefficient on Containers (TEU to BOX)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Coefficient (TEU to Box) Import/Full 1.31 1.33 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.41 Import/Empty 1.40 1.48 1.51 1.40 1.33 1.38 1.56 1.63 1.62 1.91 Export/Full 1.30 1.30 1.29 1.25 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.34 1.31 1.34 Export Empty 1.32 1.37 1.37 1.43 1.38 1.42 1.41 1.38 1.42 1.44 Transshipment/Full 1.27 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.23 1.23 1.26 1.20 1.22 1.16 Transshipment/Empty 1.43 1.53 1.52 1.43 1.41 1.63 1.79 1.68 1.55 1.66 Source: KPA

1.42

y = 0.0089x - 16.496 1.40 R² = 0.8697

1.38

1.36

1.34

1.32

1.30 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Figure 5.1.5 Coefficient (TEU to Box) by Time Series Analysis (Import)

Table 5.1.8 Container Empty/Full Ratio

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average 20'(Empty)/20'(Full) Import 0.061 0.037 0.010 0.016 0.022 0.019 0.010 0.004 0.010 0.002 0.019 Export 1.077 1.297 1.355 1.169 1.730 1.490 1.579 2.487 1.788 1.986 1.596 Transshipment 0.154 0.241 0.105 0.095 0.190 0.116 0.041 0.041 0.153 0.043 0.118 40'(Empty)/40'(Full) Import 0.091 0.070 0.020 0.019 0.020 0.020 0.024 0.012 0.026 0.022 0.032 Export 1.219 1.808 1.974 2.626 2.681 2.741 2.766 2.906 2.878 3.071 2.467 Transshipment 0.316 0.676 0.298 0.201 0.440 0.647 0.452 0.345 0.686 0.440 0.450 Source: KPA

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200,000 180,000 y = 10.045x - 82800 R² = 0.9579 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Figure 5.1.6 Regression Analysis of Transit Cargo (Import) with GDP of Uganda

Table 5.1.9 Transit/ Full Conversion Ratio Year Containerized Cargo Containers Containers Transit/Full (Export) (Full) (Transit) 1,000 ton TEUs TEUs % 2005 1,680 94,120 21,945 23.3 2006 1,625 86,317 19,212 22.3 2007 1,934 101,314 21,890 21.6 2008 1,996 102,912 21,974 21.4 2009 1,952 95,842 21,339 22.3 2010 2,218 110,314 20,489 18.6 2011 2,337 115,303 24,280 21.1 2012 2,626 120,712 26,793 22.2 2013 2,690 129,522 29,904 23.1 2014 2,791 130,757 29,543 22.6 Average 21.8 Determination 22.0 Source: KPA

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5.1.3 Results of Demand Forecast Results of Demand Forecast for import, export and transit cargoes including container cargoes are shown below, based on the demand forecast model.

Table 5.1.10 Demand Forecast for Imported Cargoes (x1,000 tons) 2014 SAPROF Review 2013 Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Iron & Steel 1,367 1,259 1,935 2,684 3,461 1,357 2,067 2,853 3,668 4,397 Rice 651 326 313 210 141 331 316 262 145 0 Sugar 231 427 551 681 819 435 558 688 826 973 Chemicals & Insecticides390 222 222 222 222 260 260 260 260 260 Plastic 662 330 330 330 330 399 399 399 399 399 M/Vehicle & Lorries 463 529 840 1,184 1,541 487 742 1,025 1,318 1,580 Paper & Paper Products 503 565 905 1,281 1,671 431 645 881 1,127 1,346 Cereal Flour 49 121 121 121 121 75 75 75 75 75 Fertilizer 102 73 73 73 73 81 81 81 81 81 Maize in Bags 37 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Wheat in Bags 9 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 Others 4,649 6,624 10,339 14,454 18,721 6,075 9,152 12,560 16,095 19,256 Total General Cargo 9,113 10,514 15,667 21,278 27,138 9,971 14,335 19,124 24,034 28,407 Wheat in Bulk 1,908 2,336 3,380 4,537 5,737 1,981 3,088 4,497 6,203 8,063 Clinker 2,065 3,019 5,184 7,583 10,071 2,690 4,436 6,370 8,375 10,169 Fertilizer in Bulk 360 341 341 341 341 579 579 579 829 829 Coal 436 326 361 396 431 396 582 788 1,001 1,192 Other Cereals in Bulk 184 110 110 110 110 106 106 106 106 106 Maize in Bulk 0 414 414 414 414 485 492 471 466 564 Others 278 362 504 646 788 306 459 629 805 962 Total Dry Bulk 5,231 6,908 10,294 14,027 17,892 6,543 9,742 13,440 17,785 21,885 P.O.L. 6,286 7,425 10,048 12,953 15,966 6,757 8,654 10,755 12,933 14,882 Other Liquid Bulk 906 1,043 1,438 1,876 2,330 995 1,324 1,688 2,065 2,403 Total Liquid Bulk 7,192 8,468 11,486 14,829 18,296 7,752 9,978 12,443 14,998 17,285 Grand Total 21,536 25,890 37,447 50,134 63,326 24,266 34,055 45,007 56,817 67,577 Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 High Case Grand Total 24,529 36,204 50,184 66,446 83,009 Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Low Case Grand Total 24,003 32,004 40,297 48,553 55,096

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Table 5.1.11 Demand Forecast for Exported Cargoes (x1,000 tons) 2014 SAPROF Review 2013 Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Tea 554 469 513 558 603 522 605 698 811 912 Soda Ash 336 530 746 962 1,178 355 465 588 737 870 Coffee 256 260 293 326 359 265 313 368 434 493 Others 851 1,183 1,800 2,477 3,178 965 1,269 1,608 2,022 2,391 Total General Cargo 1,997 2,442 3,352 4,323 5,318 2,107 2,652 3,262 4,004 4,666 Titanium 363 0 0 0 0 450 450 450 450 450 Soda Ash in Bulk 0 29 29 29 29 Cement in Bulk 0 2 2 2 2 Flourspar 59 70 70 70 70 Other Dry Bulk 0 11 11 11 11 84 84 84 84 84 Total Dry Bulk 422 112 112 112 112 534 534 534 534 534 Bulk Oil 19 92 92 92 92 Bunkers 26 62 62 62 62 Total Liquid Bulk 45 154 154 154 154 112 112 112 112 112 Grand Total 2,464 2,708 3,618 4,589 5,584 2,753 3,298 3,908 4,650 5,312 Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 High Case Grand Total 2,774 3,464 4,287 5,337 6,388 Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Low Case Grand Total 2,731 3,141 3,563 4,054 4,425

Table 5.1.12 Demand Forecast for Container Cargoes

(x1,000 TEU) 2014 SAPROF Review 2013 Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Import Full 482 580 894 1,250 1,628 551 826 1,140 1,473 1,780 Empty 7 18 28 39 51 17 27 38 50 62 Subtotal 489 598 921 1,289 1,678 568 853 1,178 1,523 1,842 Export Full 131 160 222 290 362 145 183 226 279 326 Empty 332 438 700 998 1,317 424 670 952 1,244 1,517 Subtotal 463 598 921 1,289 1,678 568 853 1,178 1,523 1,842 Transshipment Full 53 11 22 36 54 11 22 36 54 66 Empty 8 7 13 21 31 7 13 21 31 38 Subtotal 61 18 35 57 85 18 35 57 85 105

Total 1,012 1,214 1,878 2,634 3,442 1,154 1,741 2,412 3,131 3,789

Note: Future container cargo volumes are forecasted tentatively by regression analysis, based on the relation between GDP and container numbers (TEU).

The above result shows comparison with “SAPROF Review 2013”. Table 5.1.13 shows big differences in forecast between “SAPROF Review 2013” and “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base”. The followings are the reasons why such differences are generated;  Yearly issued GDP growth rates obtained from IMF often changes even in their past years. The latest values show lower than the past ones.  Recorded cargo volumes in 2013 and 2014 after the “SAPROF Review 2013” shows lower than that of forecasted in the review.  Forecast export cargo volumes are derived using a model different from the “SAPROF Review 2013” as noted in the table.

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Table 5.1.13 Major Differences between the Forecasts in 2030

Main Difference Cargo Items SAPROF Review 2013 Updated 2014 Differences Import Elasticity of GDP & Cargo Growth 3.19 2.67 (16% reduction) Others 2030 Cargo Volume (1,000 ton) 18,721 16,095 2,626 Elasticity of GDP & Cargo Growth 8.77 7.36 (16% reduction) Clinker 2030 Cargo Volume (1,000 ton) 10,071 8,376 1,695 Elasticity of GDP & Cargo Growth 1.31 1.10 (16% reduction) P.O.L 2030 Cargo Volume (1,000 ton) 15,966 12,934 3,032 Export Forecast Method Constant increasing Using Elasticity 1.3 (GDP & Cargo Growth) Soda Ash 2030 Cargo Volume (1,000 ton) 1,178 737 441 Forecast Method Using GDP of Kenya Using GDP of Export Partner Others 2030 Cargo Volume (1,000 ton) 3,178 2,022 1,156 Container Import Full Elasticity of GDP & Cargo Growth 3.20 2.68 (16% reduction) Container 2030 Cargo Volume (1,000 TEU) 1,628 1,473 155 Source: The Project Team

Following points are paid attention on comparison between “SAPROF Review 2013” and “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base”. Imported Cargoes  M/Vehicles & Lorries on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” have decreased due to regression analysis using GDP based on the latest IMF constant prices/base year 2009 (3.06 and 2.57 of an elastic value calculated based on the difference between rates of the import volume and the GDP in Kenya for SAPROF Review and Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base, respectively).  Paper and Paper Products on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” have decreased due to regression analysis using GDP based on the latest IMF constant prices/base year 2009 (1.76 and 1.48 of an elastic value for SAPROF Review and Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base, respectively).  Others on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” have decreased due to regression analysis using GDP based on the latest IMF constant prices/base year 2009 (3.19 and 2.67 of an elastic value for SAPROF Review and Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base, respectively).  Wheat in Bulk on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” shows larger volumes in 2035 because future import volumes are estimated based on future consumption volumes (per capita consumption x population), while Regression Analysis with GDP in Kenya has been used for import volumes on “SAPROF Review” .  Clinker on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” has decreased due to regression analysis using GDP based on the latest IMF constant prices/base year 2009 (8.77 and 7.36 of an elastic value for SAPROF Review and Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base, respectively).  Fertilizer in Bulk on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” has increased due to making reference to requirements studied by “Kenya Fertilizer Assessment by IFDC 2012”.  Coal on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” has increased due to regression analysis using GDP in Kenya, while coal on “SAPROF Review 2013” was estimated with 35,000 tons/year increases every 5 years.  P.O.L on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” have decreased due to regression analysis using GDP based on the latest IMF constant prices/base year 2009 (1.31 and 1.10 of an elastic value for SAPROF Review and Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014

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Base, respectively).  Other Liquid Bulk on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” have decreased due to regression analysis using GDP based on the latest IMF constant prices/base year 2009 (1.38 and 1.16 of an elastic value for SAPROF Review and Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base, respectively). Exported Cargoes  Tea on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” has increased due to regression analysis using GDP in export partners, while Tea on “SAPROF Review 2013” is estimated with 45,000 tons/year increases every 5 years.  Soda Ash on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” is estimated using an elastic value which is calculated based on the difference between rates of the export volume and GDP in export partners (Elasticity=1.30 for the last decade), while Soda Ash on “SAPROF Review 2013” is estimated with 216,000 tons/year increases every 5 years.  Coffee on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” is estimated using an elastic value which is calculated based on the difference between rates of the export volume and GDP in export partners (Elasticity=0.76 for the last decade), while Coffee on “SAPROF Review 2013” is estimated with 33,000 tons/year increases every 5 years.  Others on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” is estimated using regression analysis with GDP in export partners, while Others on “SAPROF Review 2013” using regression analysis with GDP in Kenya. Container Cargoes  Imported container cargoes on “Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base” have decreased due to regression analysis using GDP based on the latest IMF constant prices/base year 2009 (3.20 and 2.68 of an elastic value calculated based on the difference between rates of the import volume and the GDP in Kenya for SAPROF Review and Updated Demand Forecast/Year 2014 Base, respectively).

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5.2 Future trend forecast on ships calling at Mombasa Port

5.2.1 Overview of world seaborne trade Reference is made to“Review of Maritime Transport 2014 by UNCTAD.” (1) General The volume of world merchandise trade expanded at an annual growth rate of 3.8 % (total trade), 6.9 % (main bulks) and 3.0 % (other bulks) from 2005 to 2013 (see Figure 5.2.1). The performance of world seaborne trade in 2013 was shaped by various trends, including a more balanced growth in demand and a continued persistent oversupply in the world fleet. Of these shipments, dry cargo accounted for the largest share (70.2 %), followed by tanker trade (29.8 %).

4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Load (million Load (million tons) 500 0 006 2005 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

Oil & Gas Main bulk Other dry cargo

Figure 5.2.1 Trends of World Seaborne Trade *Main Bulk: Iron Ore, Grain, Coal Bauxisite/Aluminu and Phosphate Rock Source: Prepared by Study Team based on data of UNCTAD “Review of Maritime Transport 2014”

Figure 5.2.2 shows the world seaborne trades by cargo type. In 2013, dry bulks remained the mainstay of dry cargo trade, with the five major bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grain, bauxite and alumina, and phosphate rock) accounting for 44.2 % of the total volume of dry cargo and minor bulks. The five major dry bulks expanded the fastest at the rate of 6.5 %, followed by general cargoes and containerized trade. Growth in tanker trade reflects diverging trends as crude oil shipments declined (-1.7 %) while oil product volumes increased (3.2 %) and gas trade remained flat.

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12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

Load (Milliontons) 2,000

0 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2005 2006 2007 200 Year

Container Other dry cargo Five major bulks Oil & Gas

Figure 5.2.2 World Seaborne Trades by Cargo Type Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on data of UNCTAD “Review of Maritime Transport 2014”

Global containerized trade picked up speed and grew by 4.6 % in 2013 taking total volumes to 160 million TEU (see Figure 5.2.3). Intraregional and South-South trades accounted for 39.8 % of global containerized trade shipments in 2013, followed in descending order by North-South trade (17.0 %), the trans-Pacific (13.6 %), Far East-Europe (13.1 %), secondary East-West (12.6 %) and transatlantic (3.9 %).

180 20 160 15 140 120 10 100 5 80 60 0 40 -5 20 0 -10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Container (Million TEU) Annual Growth Rate (%)

Figure 5.2.3 World Containerized Trade Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on data of UNCTAD “Review of Maritime Transport 2014”

(2) Trends of the world fleet During the 12 months to 1 January 2014, the world fleet grew by 65.9 million dwt, an increase of 4.1 % over 1 January 2013. This annual growth is lower than that observed during any of the previous 10 years (refer to Figure 5.2.4). Further, the tonnage built in 2013 was less than that built in any of the previous five years. It is considered that the present oversupply of the world fleet is being eased

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12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0 Growth Rate(%) 2.0

0.0 001 2000 2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

Figure 5.2.4 Annual Growth of the World Fleet Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on data of UNCTAD “Review of Maritime Transport 2014”

The highest growth during 2013 was observed for dry-bulk carriers (+5.5 %), followed by container ships (+4.7 %), other vessel types (+4.0 %) and oil tankers (+1.9 %). The fleet of general cargo ships remained stagnant. In January 2014, the world fleet reached a total of 1.69 billion dwt. Bulk carriers account for 42.9 % of the total tonnage, followed by oil tankers (28.5 %) and container ships (12.8 %) according to Figure 5.2.5. Since 1980, the global share of dry-bulk carriers has gone up by 58 %, while that of oil tankers has declined by 43 %. In the meantime, as non-bulk cargo has increasingly been containerized, the share of the container-ship fleet has surged by 677 % since 1980, while the general cargo fleet share has dropped by 73 %. Within the container-ship fleet, the trend towards gearless ships continues. Ever fewer new buildings come with their own gear, which makes it necessary for ports to provide ship-to-shore cranes to allow for loading and unloading of containers. In the long term, all container seaports will need to invest in their own ship-to-shore container handling cranes to handle cargo from ever larger gearless vessels.

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

Share 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90 1980 19 2000 2010 2014 Year

Other Container General cargo Dry bulk Oil tanker

Figure 5.2.5 World Fleet Share by Principle Vessel Types Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on data of UNCTAD “Review of Maritime Transport 2014”

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Figure 5.2.6 shows number of the registered vessel by cargo type. It is clear that the number of general cargo vessels have decreased slowly from 2008 to 2013 and that of bulk carriers have increased continuously up to 2016.

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000

f Vessel 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Number Number o 2,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year

Container General cargo RoRo/Vehicle Bulk Carrier Tanker

Figure 5.2.6 Number of the Registered Vessel by Cargo Type Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on data of HIS Fair Play World Fleet statistics

Container-ship sizes also continue to grow. The years 2013 and 2014 have seen new records in size deliveries. Starting with ships of 16,000 TEU deployed by CMA-CGM in early 2013, these were surpassed by Maersk’s series of 20 ships of 18,270 TEU in mid. 2014, which in turn are expected to be surpassed by upgraded 19,000 TEU ships built in the Republic of Korea for China Shipping at the end of 2014. Apart from the sizes of the largest ships, average sizes of new deliveries and vessel deployment are also continuing to increase, posing challenges for seaports’ infrastructure and operations in all markets.

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5.2.2 Present vessel calling at Mombasa port Table 5.2.1 shows the vessels presently calling at Mombasa port. The number of calling vessels for container ships increased by 11 % in 2014, followed by RoRo/car carriers and bulk carriers, while that for general cargo vessels decreased by 20 %. Further, almost all the average GRT/vessel also increased in 2014 except general cargo vessels. This means that vessel sizes calling at Mombasa port are tending to increase.

Table 5.2.1 Present Vessel Calling at Mombasa Port in 2013 & 2014 Year 2013 Year 2014 Vessel type No. of calls Total GRT GRT/vessel No. of calls Total GRT GRT/vessel Container 500 12,928,588 25,857 557 15,511,714 27,849 General cargo 343 1,936,265 5,645 285 1,088,209 3,818 RoRo 43 1,918,291 44,611 49 2,334,320 47,639 Car carrier 145 7,805,273 53,829 155 9,502,222 61,305 Bulk carrier 202 5,375,764 26,613 210 5,853,479 27,874 Tankers 194 6,177,114 31,841 194 6,717,929 34,629 Source: KPA statistics

Based on the Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA, correlation of vessel dimensions (GRT, LOA and Draft) are analyzed for the following 5 types of vessels. (1) Container Vessel Two scatter charts in Figure 5.2.7 show the correlation of GRT/LOA and GRT/Draft (Nominal full draft) for container vessels called at Mombasa in 2013.

Figure 5.2.7 Scatter Charts of GRT/LOA and GRT/Entering Draft of Container Vessels (2013) Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

The maximum dimensions of container vessel are 36,898 GRT, 209m LOA and 13.5m Nominal full draft among 500 calling vessels. Majority ranges between 13,000 ~ 40,000 GRT, 150 ~ 200m LOA and 8 ~ 14m Draft. The following Table 5.2.2 shows the maximum, average and minimum of container vessels size called at Mombasa in 2013.

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Table 5.2.2 Maximum, Average and Minimum of Container Vessels in 2013 GRT LOA Draft (ton) (m) (m) Maximum 39,430 241 13.5 Average 25,890 199 11.2 Minimum 1,448 71 3.5 Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

(2) General Cargo Vessel Two scatter charts in Figure 5.2.8 show the correlation of GRT/LOA and GRT/Draft (Nominal full draft) for RoRo vessels called at Mombasa in 2013.

Figure 5.2.8 Scatter Charts of GRT/LOA and GRT/Entering Draft of General Cargo Vessels (2013) Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

The maximum dimensions of general cargo vessel are 32,661 GRT, 189m LOA and 12.7m Nominal full draft among 256 calling vessels. General cargo vessels are widely ranging between 1,000 ~ 32,000 GRT, 30 ~ 190m LOA and 2 ~ 13m Draft. The following Table 5.2.3 shows the maximum, average and minimum of general cargo vessels size called at Mombasa in 2013.

Table 5.2.3 Maximum, Average and Minimum of General Cargo Vessels in 2013 GRT LOA Draft (ton) (m) (m) Maximum 32,661 189 12.7 Average 5,126 83 6.7 Minimum 39 11 2.1 Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

(3) RoRo Vessel Two scatter charts in Figure 5.2.9 show the correlation of GRT/LOA and GRT/Draft (Nominal full draft) for RoRo vessels called at Mombasa in 2013.

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Figure 5.2.9 Scatter Charts of GRT/LOA and GRT/Entering Draft of RoRo Vessels (2013) Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

The maximum dimensions of RoRo vessel are 59,022 GRT, 239m LOA and 11.5m Nominal full draft among 45 calling vessels. Majority ranges between 20,000 ~ 60,000 GRT, 180 ~ 240m LOA and 8 ~ 12m Draft. The following Table 5.2.4 shows the maximum, average and minimum of RoRo vessels size called at Mombasa in 2013.

Table 5.2.4 Maximum, Average and Minimum of RoRo Vessels in 2013 GRT LOA Draft (ton) (m) (m) Maximum 59,022 239 11.5 Average 44,473 224 10.0 Minimum 7,635 141 5.2 Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

(4) Car Carrier Two scatter charts in Figure 5.2.10 show the correlation of GRT/LOA and GRT/Draft (Nominal full draft) for car carrier vessels called at Mombasa in 2013.

Figure 5.2.10 Scatter Charts of GRT/LOA and GRT/Entering Draft of Car Carrier Vessels (2013) Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

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The maximum dimensions of car carrier vessel are 72,408 GRT, 232m LOA and 11.7m Nominal full draft among 145 calling vessels. Majority ranges between 20,000 ~ 60,000 GRT, 180 ~ 240m LOA and 8 ~ 12m Draft. The following Table 5.2.5 shows the maximum, average and minimum of car carrier vessels size called at Mombasa in 2013.

Table 5.2.5 Maximum, Average and Minimum of Car Carrier Vessels in 2013 GRT LOA Draft (ton) (m) (m) Maximum 72,408 232 11.7 Average 54,368 194 9.7 Minimum 15,519 174 8.4 Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

(5) Bulk Carrier Two scatter charts in Figure 5.2.11 show the correlation of GRT/LOA and GRT/Draft (Nominal full draft) for bulk carrier vessels called at Mombasa in 2013.

Figure 5.2.11 Scatter Charts of GRT/LOA and GRT/Entering Draft of Bulk Carrier (2013) Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

The maximum dimensions of bulk carrier vessel are 32,898 GRT, 209m LOA and 13.3m Nominal full draft among 202 calling vessels. Majority ranges between 13,000 ~ 37,000 GRT, 150 ~ 200m LOA and 9 ~ 13m Draft. The following Table 5.2.6 shows the maximum, average and minimum of bulk carrier vessels size called at Mombasa in 2013.

Table 5.2.6 Maximum, Average and Minimum of Bulk Carrier in 2013 GRT LOA Draft (ton) (m) (m) Maximum 36,898 209 13.3 Average 26,892 185 11.6 Minimum 8,987 119 7.9 Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA

Table 5.2.7 shows the maximum and average dimensions of vessels by each berth and by type of vessels called at Mombasa in accordance with the data of 2013. It is apparent that the existing berths cannot possibly accommodate many of the maximum vessels, except general cargo vessels, due to

5-30 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast insufficient berth length and depth. In other word, the size of vessels in the world market is distinctively growing. Therefore, the entering vessels with draft deeper than berth depth are forced to wait and berth during the higher tide. Also, the vessels with longer LOA than berth length have to occupy two berths resulting to affect the operations of adjacent berth. For an example, Jolly Perla (RoRo vessel, 240m LOA) and B. Ladybug (Car Carrier, 232m LOA) were accommodated along Berth No. 1 & No. 2 (181m +180m). Likewise, container vessels longer than 205m LOA such as MSC Levina, APL Dallas, etc. were accommodated along No. 18 & 19 (228m + 240m).

Table 5.2.7 Dimensions of Calling Vessels in Berth and Vessel Type (2013)

Unit: GRT= Tons, LOA=Meters , Draft=Meters Container General Cargo Ro-Ro Car Carrier Bulk Carrier Allow- Berth Berth Berth Berth able No. GRT LOA Draft*No. GRT LOA Draft*No. GRT LOA Draft*No. GRT LOA Draft*No. GRT LOA Draft* Call No. Length Depth LOA of (Max) (Max) (Max)of (Max) (Max) (Max)of (Max) (Max) (Max)of (Max) (Max) (Max)of (Max) (Max) (Max) Total Call (Ave) (Ave) (Ave)Call (Ave) (Ave) (Ave)Call (Ave) (Ave) (Ave)Call (Ave) (Ave) (Ave)Call (Ave) (Ave) (Ave) 35,812 200 13.3 MBK 306.3m276m -10.5m 7 7 34,471 195 13.2 173.1m 156m -10.5m 26,131 195 12.1 18,342 185 10.6 59,022 239 11.5 72,408 232 10.5 33,042 189 13.0 1+2 4 11 38 80 5 138 166.4m 150m -10.5m 19,810 174 10.8 6,553 103 6.8 46,001 227 10.3 55,272 194 9.7 28,277 186 11.7 13,497 159 9.2 31,041 189 11.4 57,542 199 11.2 33,044 198 13.0 3 166.4m150m -10.5m 2 6 3 48 59 8,455 128 - 13,492 141 9.8 42,583 187 10.1 26,270 185 11.4 26,638 211 11.4 24,918 188 11.5 23,235 193 7.4 51,671 182 - 30,055 189 12.0 4 190.2m171m -10.5m 24 28 2 1 9 64 16,602 171 9.3 9,274 122 7.7 15,435 167 6.3 51,671 182 - 22,446 177 10.7 29,724 211 11.6 13,367 156 9.6 59,952 199 10.0 33,055 209 12.8 5 178.6m161m -10.5m 52 5 9 4 70 22,462 189 10.2 5,658 107 - 53,970 193 9.5 27,819 189 12.4 32,661 189 12.7 60,942 199 11.3 33,044 190 12.8 7 208.2m187m -10.0m 16 5 25 46 17,839 164 10.4 51,719 190 9.6 23,841 180 11.0 13,274 155 10.1 9,625 138 8.7 30,303 189 12.0 8 170.7m154m -11.5m 3 35 3 41 5,447 100 5.7 2,247 68 5.6 24,007 181 11.4 33,042 208 11.5 14,762 154 9.7 58,752 199 9.6 35,812 200 13.3 9 179.8m 162m -11.5m 3 8 3 30 44 26,600 193 - 7,137 108 6.9 46,800 186 9.0 26,888 184 11.5 31,540 207 12.7 29,862 189 12.1 60,975 199 11.7 36,898 200 13.3 10 204.2m 184m -10.0m 3 6 6 41 56 21,080 166 9.3 16,730 162 9.8 57,674 196 10.4 29,798 189 12.4 26,936 211 11.5 31,877 182 12.2 61,321 200 10.5 34,775 199 13.0 11 184.4m 166m -10.0m 8 47 18 19 92 24,089 199 11.1 5,034 76 7.0 52,676 191 9.7 25,816 182 11.0 4,246 99 7.3 12 182.9m 165m -10.0m 74 74 505 47 4.0 35,878 212 11.6 13,237 156 10.1 61,106 200 10.0 15,932 169 - 13 174.0m 157m -10.5m 52 14 17 1 84 26,040 207 11.4 3,306 70 6.2 54,882 197 9.7 15,932 169 - 30,047 211 11.6 9,700 120 9.0 60,131 199 10.1 30,363 189 9.5 14 181.4m163m -10.0m 60 5 5 1 71 25,137 204 11.4 2,220 61 4.9 55,803 196 9.7 30,363 189 - 36,124 231 13.5 16 177.7m160m -12.5m 81 81 28,266 204 11.7 39,430 241 13.5 16,694 174 - 17 182.9m165m -12.5m 93 2 95 28,035 204 11.6 11,502 137 - 239.0m 215m -12.5m 36,124 231 13.5 5,548 122 6.4 18+19 114 1 114 240.0m 216m -13.5m 27,589 203 11.7 5,548 122 - 39,430 241 13.5 32,661 189 12.7 59,022 239 11.5 72,408 232 11.7 36,898 209 13.3 Total 499 258 40 147 193 1,136 25,890 199 11.2 5,126 83 6.7 44,473 224 10.0 54,368 194 9.7 26,892 185 11.6 Note: Vessel type excluding tankers, barges, supply ships & non commercial vessels, Draft*: Nominal full draft Red Bold: Average LOA longer than berth length. Blue Bold: Average Draft deeper than berth depth. Source: Prepared by The Project Team based on data of Calling Vessel Data at Mombasa Port in 2013 by KPA. Maximum vessel size calling at Mombasa port is shown in Table 5.2.8. Following points merit attention:  Container ships: Maximum size ranges between 40,000 DWT and 50,000 DWT, namely Panamax type. Principal dimensions of the ship are LOA 241 m~274 m, full load draft 12.1~12.7 m and maximum TEU capacity 2,800~3,900 TEU according to “Technical Standard and Commentaries for Port and Harbour Facilities in Japan” in 2009 by the Overseas Coastal Area Development Institute of Japan (OCDI).  RoRo/car carriers: LOA (length overall) and full load draft for these ships are 240 m and 10 m, respectively. This raises a serious issue for the port because almost all the berths are 180~200 m in length with and a water depth of 10 m (except container berths). This means that vessels have to berth over two berths and with a partial loading.  Bulk carriers: these vessels also have issues similar to RoRo/car carriers in terms of berth length and water depth. Bulk carriers are considerably large (60,000~70,000 DWT) compared to RoRo/car carriers and need longer and deeper berths to enable ships with a full load to call at the port. This results in more expensive goods for people in Kenya due to the higher transportation cost which in turn adversely affects the national economy.

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Table 5.2.8 Maximum Vessel Size Calling at Mombasa Port in 2013 Vessel type/name GRT DWT LOA (m) Draft (m) Max. TEU Container -MSC Levina 37,134 43,140 243 11.7 2,670 -MSC America 34,231 45,696 205 12.5 2,700 -APL Dallas 35,697 41,500 231 12.0 3,554 General cargo -Paris Trader 32,661 58,019 189 10.5 n.a. RoRo -Jolly Perla 50,720 45,200 240 10.1 n.a. Car carrier -B Ladybug 72,408 27,003 232 10.0 n.a. Bulk carrier -JS Colorado 35,812 63,301 200 12.3 n.a. -First Endeavour 35,879 69,111 225 - n.a. -Transtime 32,987 57,000 190 13.1 n.a. Tanker -Suvretta 62,856 109,250 250 14.9 n.a. Source: Ship arrival data recorded by KPA and web site

5-32 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

5.2.3 Future trends of calling ships (1) Premises Forecast of ships which will call Mombasa port in future is based on the following premises: a) World seaborne trade As mentioned in Chapter 5.2.1(1),  The volume of world merchandise trade has expanded continuously, especially for bulk cargoes and dry cargoes which accounted for the largest share (70.2 %) in 2013,  The five major dry bulks (iron ore, coal, grain, bauxite and alumina, and phosphate rock) expanded the fastest at the rate of 6.5 % in 2013, followed by general cargoes and containerized trade,  Global containerized trade picked up speed and grew by 4.6 % in 2013 taking total volumes to 160 million TEU. b) Trends of the world fleet As mentioned in Chapter 5.2.1(2),  The highest growth during 2013 was observed for dry-bulk carriers (+5.5 %), followed by container ships (+4.7 %). The fleet of general cargo ships remained stagnant,  In the meantime, as non-bulk cargo has increasingly been containerized, the share of the container-ship fleet has surged since 1980, while the general cargo fleet share has dropped,  The number of general cargo vessels have decreased slowly from 2008 to 2013 and that of bulk carriers have increased continuously up to 2016,  Average sizes of new deliveries and vessel deployment for container ships are also continuing to increase as well as the sizes of the largest ships. c) Present vessel calling at Mombasa port As mentioned in Chapter 5.2.2,  Vessel sizes calling at Mombasa port have tended to increase for RoRo/car carriers and bulk carriers except general cargo vessels,  LOA and full load draft for RoRo/car carriers and bulk carriers are 200~240 m and 10~13 m maximum, respectively. This raises a serious issue for the port because almost all the berths are 180~200 m in length with and a water depth of 10 m (except container berths). This means that vessels have to berth over two berths and with a partial loading. d) Future port development in Mombasa port Following port development is planned according to “The Port Investment Programme 2013-2030” by KPA:  Mombasa Port Development Project Phase 1, 2 & 3: Three berths with a water depth of -15 m are planned to be constructed,  Development of 2 berths at Dongo Kundu Freeport: Multi-purpose terminals with deep water berths are planned to be constructed. e) Cascading down effect on the container ship The increasing growth in big container ships on the world’s seas continues. As a result, it is expected that new ships will continue to fuel the cascading down effect, which has visibly intensified since 2011 according to “Cascading Down in Container Shipping” on Results of the 7th Maritime Trend Barometer 2012 by UniCredit. Nearly all the new big container ships will run on the main Asia-Europe route. However, they will not operate in addition to smaller ships that have been employed on these routes to date but will force them to move to other, lower-volume routes. This, in turn, will trigger the same “cascading down’ effect. The cascading down effect is spawning reduced demand for charter business and a decline in orders for new ships. The above report mentions that the

5-33 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast entire range of 2,000 TEU to 6,500 TEU ships will be affected by declining orders for new ships. Further cascading down will result in market consolidation on the shipping line side. Table 5.2.9 shows deployment of container ships in the main sea routes. It is expected that “cascading down” effect will appear in these routes, for example once new big container ships will run on the Euro-Asia route, smaller ships on the routes will be forced to move to other lower-volume routes like the USA-Asia, the North-South and the Intra-Asia route, including the Mombasa route. As a result, there is the high possibility that larger container ships will be deployed on the Mombasa route.

Table 5.2.9 Deployment of Container Ships on the Main Sea Routes in 2013

TEU Euro-Asia USA-Asia North-South Intra-Asia Mombasa route Capacity No. TEU* % No. TEU* % No. TEU* % No. TEU* % No. TEU* % 12,000- 133 1,801 43.4 2 25 0.8 7 95 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 10,000- 33 351 8.5 8 87 2.9 4 43 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 8,000- 132 1,126 27.1 102 875 29.0 50 438 13.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,000- 76 520 12.5 92 615 20.4 91 602 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,000- 60 320 7.7 274 1,323 43.9 293 1,396 41.8 45 208 16.3 0 0 0 3,000- 9 31 0.8 16 57 1.9 78 271 8.1 20 67 5.3 11 36 20.3 2,000- 0 0 0 8 19 0.6 141 363 10.9 106 276 21.6 43 113 63.8 1,500- 0 0 0 7 12 0.4 54 93 2.8 154 261 20.5 16 28 15.8 1,000- 0 0 0 3 4 0.1 22 26 0.8 244 282 22.1 0 0 0 500- 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 13 0.4 210 157 12.3 0 0 0 -499 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 25 2.0 0 0 0 Total 443 4,149 - 512 3,017 - 756 3,340 - 855 1,276 - 70 177 - Ave.TEU 9,366 TEU 5,893 TEU 4,418 TEU 1,492 TEU 2,529 TEU Source: “Analysis on World Container Movement and Containerized Cargo Flow (2014)” by MLIT in Japan and KPA statistics f) Coping with future cargo volumes Table 5.2.10 shows the future vessel number required to handle import/export cargo volumes based on the present vessel loading/capacity. According to the table, the number of bulk carriers in 2035 will account for 4.2 times the number in 2014, followed by container ships (3.7 times) and car carriers (3.4 times), while the number of general cargo vessels in 2035 will account for only 1.3 times that in 2014. As a result, a huge number of vessels will be needed in the future. It is noted that enlargement of cargo vessels is indispensable as well as improvement of port infrastructures and cargo handling productivity in order to avoid unnecessary congestion inside the port and cope with the expected future increase in cargo volumes.

Table 5.2.10 Required Number of Future Vessels based on Present Vessel Loading/Capacity Future cargo (x1,000 TEU/ton) Required number of vessels Vessel type 2015 2025 2035 2015 2025 2035 Container 1,154 2,412 3,789 635 1,327 2,085 General cargo 1,900 2,458 2,790 257 333 378 Car carrier 487 1,025 1,580 163 343 529 Bulk carrier 6,627 13,524 21,969 263 537 872 Tanker 7,864 12,555 17,397 211 337 466 Source: Study Team

(2) Future trend of calling ships Taking the above premises into account, ship sizes calling at Mombasa port in the future are forecasted

5-34 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast by vessel types as shown in Table 5.2.11.

Table 5.2.11 Future Trend of Calling Ships DWT Load LOA Beam Draft Vessel type (Max) (TEU/ton) (m) (m) (m) Container 60,000 4,300-5,400 275/285 37.2/40.0 12.7/13.8 General cargo 18,000 18,000 156 22.4 9.8 Car carrier 30,000 8,000 units 228 32.3 11.3 Bulk carrier 70,000 70,000 233 32.3 13.0 Tanker 100,000 100,000 250 42.7 14.8 Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on data of “Technical Standard and Commentaries for Port and Harbour Facilities in Japan” in 2009 by OCDI

Following points merit attention:  Container ship: The size of container ships calling at Mombasa port is expected to increase in line with the world trend. Once the container terminal having a water depth of -15 m in the Mombasa Port Development Project Phase 1 is completed, 60,000 DWT container ships (post-panamax type) will be able to call the port at full draft,  Car carrier: If the Dongo Kundu Freeport Project is realized and the terminal has a sufficient water depth (more than -12.5 m) and berth length (at least 250 m), car carriers having a loading capacity of 8,000 units will be able to call the port at full draft,  Bulk carrier: If the Dongo Kundu Freeport Project is realized and the terminal has a sufficient water depth (more than -15.0 m) and berth length (at least 250 m), 70,000 DWT bulk carriers (panamax type) will be able to call the port at full draft,  The sizes of general cargo vessels and tankers will remain unchanged because the volume of general cargo is expected to increase only marginally while tankers are already sufficiently large given the current volumes.

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5.3 Future passenger demand and port capacity forecast at Mombasa Port

5.3.1 National Strategy and Policy of Tourism (1) Tourism Sector in Kenya Based on the “Second Medium Term Plan (2013 – 2017) in Kenya Vison 2030”, identified six priority sectors have high potential of spurring the country’s economic growth and development. In the identified six sectors, the tourism sector remains vital for the continued growth of the Kenyan economy. In recent years, tourism has maintained its position as one of the leading foreign exchange earners. The sector is based on a wide array of natural assets particularly: the abundant wildlife living in their natural eco-systems in game-parks and reserves across the country, over 500 km long all-year warm sandy coastal beaches, a rich and diverse cultural heritage and products and a robust and thriving business hub that attracts most of regional and international business travelers. (See Figure 5.3.1)

Figure 5.3.1 Kenya Tourism Map Source: Shoor Travel & Tours Ltd. (www. shoottravel.com)

Tourist arrivals rose from 1.2 million in 2008 to 1.78 million in 2012, while earnings rose from KSh. 52.7 billion in 2008 to KSh. 96.02 billion in 2012. Likewise, bed nights both available and occupied grew by an average of 5.4 per cent and 6.4 per cent respectively. (See Table 5.3.1) The slowdown in tourist arrivals in 2012 is attributed to global economic slowdown especially in the Euro Area and negative publicity related to security along the Kenyan coast. Kenya’s tourism volumes remain relatively low compared to regional competitors such as South Africa and Egypt.

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Table 5.3.1 Tourism Performance Indicators

Annual Earnings Annual Annual Annual Tourist Bed-Nights Occupancy Bed-Nights Year Growth (KSh bn) Growth Growth Growth Arrivals Available % Occupied % % % % % 2008 1,203,200 -34.00 52.70 -19.00 14,233,600 -3.25 25.99 3,699,000 -46.69 2009 1,490,400 23.87 62.50 18.60 17,125,300 20.32 36.45 6,242,800 68.77 2010 1,609,100 7.96 73.70 17.92 17,161,800 0.21 38.82 6,662,300 6.72 2011 1,822,900 13.29 97.90 32.84 17,419,600 1.50 40.27 7,015,200 5.30 2012 1,780,768 -2.31 96.02 -1.92 18,849,600 8.21 36.4 6,860,800 -2.20 Average 1,581,274 1.76 76.56 9.69 16,957,980 5.40 35.59 6,096,020 6.38 Source: Second Medium Term Plan (2013 – 2017), Kenya Vision 2030

The critical issues and challenges affecting the tourism sector’s performance include:  Untapped product diversity as Kenya’s tourism continues to be based on a narrow product range that includes, beach and safari holidays;  Declining product quality due to lack of provision of unique and diverse experiences at the beach and a lack of investment incentives to spur new developments.  The Safari product is facing challenges that include weak product monitoring standards, poor regulation and control of developments in wildlife areas and migration corridors.  Security concerns, negative travel advisories and effects from global economic performance especially with regard to key source markets;  Inadequate standards and regulations and tourism infrastructure;  Inadequate bed capacity and poor distribution of facilities across regions;  Inadequate physical Infrastructure;  Poaching ; and  Human wildlife conflicts. (2) National Tourism Strategy, Kenya government established the “National Tourism Strategy 2013-2018”. In the National Tourism Strategy, the major areas of concern have been highlighted and the factors that will assist in the development, management, marketing, and regulation of the tourism sector in Kenya. These thematic areas are: 1) The need to have an effective product development and deployment approach 2) The need to enhance the marketing of Kenyan tourism products 3) The need to address inadequate financing and improve the investment environment 4) The need to be more scientific through research and information management 5) The need to focus on human capital, legal, policy and institutional framework The main targets for the tourism sector in the Programs and Projects for 2013 – 2017 include:  Increase tourism arrivals from 1.8 million in 2012 to 3 million visitors (international and cross border);  Increase tourism earnings from KSh. 96.0 billion in 2012 to KSh. 200 billion;  Increase bed-nights by domestic tourists from 2.8 million in 2012 to 4 million; and  Develop an additional 30,000 beds in high quality accommodation facilities across the country.

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5.3.2 Present Cruise Ship Calling and Passengers (1) Historical Cruise Ship Arrivals and Passenger throughput in Mombasa Port Figure 5.3.2 shows the historical cruise ship arrivals and passenger throughput in Mombasa Port. The numbers of cruise ship arrivals sharply dropped from 2008 and only 2 or 3 ship arrivals from 2011 to 2014 because of the impact of increasing piracy off the coast of the Somalia.

Figure 5.3.2 Historical Cruise Ship Arrivals and Passengers in Mombasa Port Source: KPA

(2) Present Cruise Ship Program in Mombasa Port In 2010, the attacked numbers of piracy off the coast of Somalia are 220 in the African East Coast including sea area in front of Kenya and 29 in the African West Coast. The attacked vessels of piracy are not only for commercial vessels but also cruise ships. However, in the recent news in “The Economist”, based on the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), the attached numbers of piracy dramatically decreased in the African East Coast in 2014, on the other hand, it is the Gulf of Guinea that is the worst piracy area, accounting for 19% of attacks worldwide. Figure 5.3.3 shows the actual/attempted attacks in 2010 and 2014.

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Figure 5.3.3 Actual/Attempted Attacks in 2010 and 2014 Source: The Economist (http://www.economist.com/), original source by IMB

With a decline of attacked piracy from 2014, the cruise ship callings will start to recover in the Mombasa Port. Figure 5.3.4 shows Cruise Ship (Silver Whisper, 388 tourists and 295 crews) accommodation at Berth No. 1 & 2 on 23rd March 2014. And Table 5.3.2 shows the Cruise Ship arrival/ departure schedule in 2015 and 2016. And Table 5.3.3 shows dimension and capacities of four planned cruise ships in 2015 and 2016.

Figure 5.3.4 Cruise Ship (Silver Whisper) Accommodation at Berth No. 1 & 2 Source: JICA Study Team (Photos on 23rd March 2015)

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Table 5.3.2 Arrival/Departure Schedule of Cruise Ship in 2015 and 2016

Source: Oceania Cruises, Silversea Cruises and Regent Seven Sea Cruises

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Table 5.3.3 Dimension and Capacity of Four Planed Cruise Ships in 2015 and 2016

Source: Cruise Compete (http://www.cruisecompete.com), Wikipedia

5-41 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

(3) Tour Courses for Cruise Ship Passenger in Mombasa Port Oceania Cruises, Silversea Cruises and Regent Seven Sea Cruises prepared various tour courses (half-day or full-day) for passengers. (See Table 5.3.4) Kenya is endowed with attractive tourist sites, rich culture, striking geographical diversity and landscapes ranging from beautiful beaches, to animal parks and archeological sites. Mombasa is passenger’s gateway for the exciting safaris to Tsavo, Maasi Mara and the Mwaluganje Elephant Sanctuary. Moreover, one of the cruise companies considered the executive collection vehicle. This exclusive arrangement is designed to allow passengers the chance to customize passenger’s time ashore and discover the most interesting sights in the comfort and privacy of own vehicle with English-speaking guide.

Table 5.3.4 Tour Course for Cruise Ship Passenger in Mombasa Port No. Tour Courses for Passengers Tour Periods (Hours) 1 Mombasa - A Glimpse of The Past Half-Day (Approximately 4 hours) 2 Bombolulu and Haller Nature Park Half-Day (Approximately 5 hours) 3 Mwaluganje Elephant Safari Half-Day (Approximately 5 hours) 4 Haller Nature Park Half-Day (Approximately 4 hours) 5 Shimba Hills for The Day Full-Day (Approximately 8 hours) 6 Amboseli Park by Air Full-Day (Approximately 9 hours) 7 Safari To Tsavo in Comfort Full-Day (Approximately 10 hours) Executive Collection Car (2 passengers), Half-Day (Approximately 4 hours) 8 Van (4 passengers) or or Minibus (16 passengers) Full-Day (Approximately 8 hours) Source: Oceania Cruises, Silversea Cruise and Regent Seven Sea Cruises

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5.3.3 Demand of Cruise Ship Calling and Passengers (1) Future Cruise Market Demand The National Department Tourism of South Africa conducted a study on the prospects of the cruise tourism industry for South Africa and the Southern African region as “South African Cruise Tourism” in 2009. In the report of “South African Cruise Tourism”, the following Type 1 and Type 2 are considered as the main future market demand of Mombasa Port. Type 1 of Market Demand: Southern Africa/Africa, which includes pan-Southern Africa offerings (Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, South Africa, Namibia) and parts thereof. These cruise also often include Seychelles, Reunion and Mauritius island destinations. Type 2 of Market Demand: World Cruises on vessels moving from region to region.

Figure 5.3.5 Southern Africa Cruising Region Source: “South African Cruise Tourism” by Department Tourism of South Africa

In the cruise schedule for Mombasa port in the end of 2015 and 2016, Type 1 and Type 2 can be shown in the following Figure 5.3.6

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Figure 5.3.6 Future Cruise Market Demand (Type 1 and Type 2) Source: Web-site of Silversea Cruises and Oceania Cruises

(2) Passenger Demand Forecast The following Figure 5.3.7 shows the number of tourist arrivals from 2003 to 2014.

Figure 5.3.7 Tourist Arrivals and Growth Rate (2003-2014) Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

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The average growth rate from 2003 to 2011 is 8%. However, the average growth rate from 2003 to 2014 is 3%. Because of the security concerns, various terrorist attacks, piracy attacks, the negative travel advisories and fear of spread of Ebola, the number of visitor arrivals contracted by 27% from 1 .71 million in 2012 to 1.35 million in 2014. Based on the historical growth rate of tourists arrivals, scenarios of passenger demand forecast are estimated the following three growth scenarios.  Negative Growth Scenario: Cruise Ship’s passenger growth follows the anticipated negative scenario for growth because of bad influence of piracy and terrorist attacks to 3% per annum.  Moderate Growth Scenario: Cruise Ship’s passenger growth follows the anticipated Moderate scenario for growth and recovering without the influence of piracy and terrorist attacks of 8% per annum.  Optimistic Growth Scenario: Cruise Ship’s passenger growth follows the anticipated optimistic scenario in the high security environment (no risk of piracy and terrorist attacks) until 2025 and providing the 50% of passenger share of present Cape Town Port’s passenger demand in 2035. Based on the above scenarios, the cruise ship’s passenger demand forecast is described in the following Figure 5.3.8.

Negative Growth Scenario 25,000 Moderate Growth Scenario 21,867 Optimistic Growth Scenario 19,335 20,000 Actual Passenger Records 16,803 15,274 15,000

10,040 10,395 10,000 7,075 5,919 4,404 5,105 5,000 4,815 3,277 Nos. ofPassenger 3,799

0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Figure 5.3.8 Passenger Demand Forecast Source: JICA Study Teams

(2) Port Capacity Forecast of Cruise Ships The following Table 5.3.5 shows the dimension of planned cruise ships of cruising companies in 2015 and 2016.

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Table 5.3.5 Dimension of Planned Cruise Ships of Cruising Companies (2015 & 2016) LOA Beam Draft Operator Ship Name GT Passengers Due or Delivered (m) (m) (m) Seven Seas Mariner 48,075 216.0 28.8 7.0 730 2001/3/1 Regent Seven Seven Seas Navigator 28,550 170.7 24.8 7.3 530 1999/8/1 1 Seas Cruises Inc. Seven Seas Voyager 42,363 206.5 28.8 7.1 730 2003/2/1 Seven Seas Explorer 54,000 224.1 31.1 6.2 738 Under construction Marina 66,084 239.3 32.2 7.6 1,260 2011/1/1 Nautica 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.9 777 2000/1/1 Oceania Regatta 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.8 824 1998/11/1 2 Cruises Inc. Riviera 66,172 238.0 32.2 7.6 1,260 2012/4/1 Insignia 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.9 684 1988 Sirena 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.9 684 1999 Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 Silver Shadow 28,258 186.0 24.8 6.1 388 2000/8/1 Silver Spirit 36,009 195.8 26.5 6.4 576 2009/12/1 Silversea 3 Silver Whisper 28,258 186.0 24.8 6.1 388 2001/6/1 Cruises Ltd Silver Wind 17,235 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1995/1/1 Silver Discoverer 5,218 103.0 15.4 4.1 128 1999 Silver Galapagos 4,077 88.2 15.3 4.0 100 1990 Note: : planned cruise ship in 2015 and 2016 Source: World Shipping Encyclopedia 2012 and Cruising Companies

Regarding above three cruising companies, Table 5.3.6 shows the average dimension and passenger capacity of company’s cruise ship and biggest dimension and passenger capacity of company’s cruise ship

Table 5.3.6 Average and Maximum Dimension of Planned Cruise Ships of Cruising Companies (2015 & 2016)

Total No. of Average No. Operator company's LOA Beam Draft GT Passengers ships (m) (m) (m) 1 Regent Seven Seas Cruises Inc. 4 43,247 204.3 28.4 6.9 682 2 Oceania Cruises Inc. 6 42,227 200.2 27.7 6.5 915 3 Silversea Cruises Ltd 7 19,426 152.9 21.4 5.4 310 Total No. of Biggest ship in the company No. Operator company's LOA Beam Draft GT Passengers ships (m) (m) (m) 1 Regent Seven Seas Cruises Inc. 4 54,000 224.1 31.1 7.3 738 2 Oceania Cruises Inc. 6 66,172 239.3 32.2 7.6 1,260 3 Silversea Cruises Ltd 7 36,009 195.8 26.5 6.4 576 Source: World Shipping Encyclopedia 2012 and Cruising Companies

In the cruise ship schedule of 2015, total of passengers is estimated 3,277(4,096 x 80%). The estimated passenger is applied 80% of passenger capacity. Planned calling Nos. are 7 ships. Therefore, the average passenger is 468. Table 5.3.7 shows the cruise ship arrival/departure schedule in Cape Town Port (2016). Total Nos. of Cruise Ships (arrival/departure) is 46 and total numbers of passenger are estimated 43,733. And

5-46 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast cruising companies are 12 as shown in Table 5.3.8.

Table 5.3.7 Cruise Ship Arrival/Departure Schedule in Cape Town Port (2016)

LOA Beam Draft Due or No. Date Operator Ship Name GT Passengers (m) (m) (m) Delivered 1 3-Jan-16 Hapag-Lloyed Cruises Ms Europa 2 40,000 225.0 27.0 6.0 516 2013 2 4-Jan-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 3 5-Jan-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 4 5-Jan-16 Voyages to Antiquity Mv Aegean Odyssey 11,563 141.0 20.0 6.1 380 1973 5 11-Jan-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 6 11-Jan-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 7 15-Jan-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 8 17-Jan-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 9 17-Jan-16 Voyages to Antiquity Mv Aegean Odyssey 11,563 141.0 20.0 6.1 380 1973 10 18-Jan-16 Phoenix Reisen GmbH Albatros 28,000 205.0 25.0 7.5 920 1992 11 19-Jan-16 Phoenix Reisen GmbH Albatros 28,000 205.0 25.0 7.5 920 1992 12 22-Jan-16 MSC Cruise Line Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 13 22-Jan-16 MSC Cruise Line Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 14 26-Jan-16 Cunard Line Ltd Queen Elizabeth 90,901 294.0 32.3 7.9 2,250 2010/9/1 15 27-Jan-16 Cunard Line Ltd Queen Elizabeth 90,901 294.0 32.3 7.9 2,250 2010/9/1 16 29-Jan-16 Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines Boudicca 28,551 207.0 25.2 7.5 900 1973/6/1 17 30-Jan-16 Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines Boudicca 28,551 207.0 25.2 7.5 900 1973/6/1 18 31-Jan-16 Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines Boudicca 28,551 207.0 25.2 7.5 900 1973/6/1 19 2-Feb-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 20 2-Feb-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 21 4-Feb-16 Princess Cruises Sun Princess 77,441 261.3 32.3 8.1 2,272 1995/11/1 22 9-Feb-16 Oceania Cruises Insignia 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.9 684 1988 23 9-Feb-16 Oceania Cruises Insignia 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.9 684 1988 24 12-Feb-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 25 22-Feb-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 26 3-Mar-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 27 2-Apr-16 Cruise & Maritime Astor 20,606 177.0 22.6 6.0 600 1987 28 2-Apr-16 Cruise & Maritime Astor 20,606 177.0 22.6 6.0 600 1987 29 7-Apr-16 P&O Cruises Aurora 20,606 177.0 22.6 6.0 600 1987 30 7-Apr-16 P&O Cruises Aurora 20,606 177.0 22.6 6.0 600 1987 31 22-Apr-16 Cunard Line Ltd Queen Victoria 90,049 294.0 32.3 7.9 2,250 2007/11/1 32 25-Apr-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 33 29-Apr-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 34 1-May-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 35 6-May-16 MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 36 3-Nov-16 Hapag-Lloyed Cruises Ms Europa 28,890 198.6 24.0 6.0 408 1999 37 3-Nov-16 Hapag-Lloyed Cruises Ms Europa 28,890 198.6 24.0 6.0 408 1999 38 9-Nov-16 Phoenix Reisen GmbH Artania 44,588 230.6 32.2 7.8 1,323 1984/10/1 39 10-Nov-16 Phoenix Reisen GmbH Artania 44,588 230.6 32.2 7.8 1,323 1984/10/1 40 15-Nov-16 Regent Seven Seas Cruises Inc. Seven Seas Navigator 28,550 170.7 24.8 7.3 530 1999/8/1 41 16-Nov-16 Regent Seven Seas Cruises Inc. Seven Seas Navigator 28,550 170.7 24.8 7.3 530 1999/8/1 42 1-Dec-16 Regent Seven Seas Cruises Inc. Seven Seas Navigator 28,550 170.7 24.8 7.3 530 1999/8/1 43 20-Dec-16 Oceania Cruises Nautica 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.9 777 2000/1/1 44 21-Dec-16 Oceania Cruises Nautica 30,277 181.0 25.5 5.9 777 2000/1/1 45 21-Dec-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 46 21-Dec-16 Silversea cruises Silver Cloud 16,927 155.8 21.4 5.3 296 1994/3/1 Total 54,666 Estimated Passenger in 2016 43,733 Source: World Shipping Encyclopedia 2012 and Cruising Companies, CRUISE TIMETABLE.COM Note: : planned cruise ship of Mombasa Port in 2015 and 2016

5-47 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

Table 5.3.8 Cruising Companies in Cape Town Port

No. Cruising Company 1 Cruise & Maritime 2 Cunard Line Ltd 3 Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines 4 Hapag-Lloyed Cruises 5 MSC Cruise Line 6 Oceania Cruises 7 P&O Cruises 8 Phoenix Reisen GmbH 9 Princess Cruises 10 Regent Seven Seas Cruises Inc. 11 Silversea cruises 12 Voyages to Antiquity Source: CRUISE TIMETABLE.COM on 12June, 2015

According to the live map information of IMB Piracy Reporting Center, there is not the piracy in the East Coast of Africa until 12th June in 2015. Therefore, the moderate growth scenario and the optimistic scenario are expected as the realistic scenario. At the stage of the moderate growth scenario and the optimistic scenario, several cruising companies in Cape Town Port will also operate in Mombasa Port. Three cruising companies have bigger Cruise Ship more than 2,000 passengers capacity in the following Table 5.3.9.

Figure 5.3.9 IMB Piracy & Armed Robbery Map 2015 Source: Live Map on 12th June 2015, IMB Piracy Reporting Center

5-48 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 5. Future Demand Forecast

Table 5.3.9 Bigger Cruise Ship more than 2,000 Passengers Capacity

LOA Beam Draft Operator Ship Name GT Passengers Due or Delivered (m) (m) (m) MSC Cruise Line MSC Sinfonia 65,542 275.0 32.0 6.8 2,679 2002 Queen Elizabeth 90,901 294.0 32.3 7.9 2,250 2010/9/1 Cunard Line Ltd Queen Victoria 90,049 294.0 32.3 7.9 2,250 2007/11/1 Princess Cruises Sun Princess 77,441 261.3 32.3 8.1 2,272 1995/11/1 Source: World Shipping Encyclopedia 2012 and Cruising Companies, CRUISE TIMETABLE.COM

Figure 5.3.10 shows the estimation of cruise ship arrivals/departure in the target years. The average cruise ship size is assumed to increase depend on the scale for the numbers of passengers.

Figure 5.3.10 Forecast of Cruise Ship Callings Source: JICA Study Team

(3) Cruise Ship Berth Development in the Target Years Based on the above “Forecast of Cruise Ship Callings”, in the case of “Optimistic Growth Scenario”, the BOR is approximately 10% in 2035. Thus, the required cruise ship berth is only one. However, it is expected that the accommodation of the maximum cruise ship is considered more than 2000 passengers capacity as “Queen Elizabeth” Type. Therefore, the adequate access road system and passenger terminal with systematic immigration are necessary for the smooth cruise ship tourists activities.

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6. Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

6.1 Evaluation of Current Cargo Handling

6.1.1 Cargo Handling at Existing Berths

Detailed data on cargo handling and berth utilization in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are provided by KPA. The following analysis is mainly conducted utilizing the data in 2014. (1) Mbaraki Wharf a) Berth Characteristics Berth characteristics of Mbaraki Wharf are shown in Table 6.1.1.

Table 6.1.1 Characteristics of Mbaraki Wharf Item Fact Note Berth Type Multi-purpose Length 306.3 m Depth - 10.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Construction) Concrete Pile Jetty (1970) Urgent Repair is required. Bollard Numbers 1 - 14 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.2 shows the number of calling vessels at Mbaraki Wharf in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 21, 10 and 7 vessels respectively. It is clear that the number of calling vessels has been decreasing due to the poor structural condition of the wharf. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10% of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 276 m. Table 6.1.2 also shows also LOA distribution of calling vessels at the wharf. LOAs of all calling vessels are within the designed LOA.

Table 6.1.2 Number of Calling Vessels at Mbaraki Wharf in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 276 m 276 m 7 200 m 177m 0 7 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Time There are two kinds of berth waiting time. The first type takes place when a berth is already occupied by another ship. Accordingly, the vessel has to wait until the other ship leaves the berth. This type of berth waiting time is called “Waiting Time by Berth Occupied (B/O)”. The other takes place when various conditions prevent a vessel from berthing, even if the berth is vacant. Failure of cargo handling equipment on board, delay of the customs and quarantine clearance, delay of arrival of stevedoring laborers and etc. are examples of various conditions. This type of berth waiting is called “Waiting Time by Ship Convenience (S/C)”. Table 6.1.3 shows vessel waiting hours at Mbaraki Wharf. Since the number of calling vessels is very limited, no waiting time took place in 2014.

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Table 6.1.3 Vessel Waiting Hours at Mbaraki Wharf in 2014 No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) No. of Vessels by Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 7 1 165 0 165 0 1 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.4 shows commodities and cargo volume at Mbaraki Wharf in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the wharf in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 755 thousand, 246 and 196 thousand tons respectively. It is clear that the cargo volume at the wharf has dropped drastically.

Table 6.1.4 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Mbaraki Wharf in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bulk Clinker 3 92,655 0 92,655 47 Bulk Coal 1 45,698 0 45,698 23 Bulk Flouspar 1 4,844 0 4,844 3 Bulk Slag 1 27,500 0 27,500 14 Bulk Titanium 1 0 25,300 25,300 13 Total 7 170,697 25,300 195,997 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations The wharf was initially designed for automated loading of bagged cement for exports. Presently, the wharf is mostly used for handling of bulk imports of clinker, coal and gypsum. Vessels calling at the wharf are well within the designed wharf length. Apparently, the wharf is underutilized with occupancy at 11.0%. Table 6.1.5 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Mbaraki Wharf in 2014. Productivities for bulk clinker in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 10,014, 5,413 and 6,333 ton/work-day respectively. Productivities for bulk coal in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 7,139, 5,874 and 6,464 ton/work-day respectively. Productivities for bulk gypsum in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 7,612, 6,596 and 0 (no ship call) ton/work-day respectively. It is clear that productivities for major bulk cargo at the wharf have steadily decreased.

Table 6.1.5 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Mbaraki Wharf by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bulk Clinker 92,655 137 133 119 4.6 6,333 Bulk Coal 45,698 234 178 170 2.0 6,464 Bulk Flouspar 4,844 172 136 129 1.5 904 Bulk Slag 27,500 166 140 101 1.6 6,540 Bulk Titanium 25,300 502 114 107 1.3 5,679 Total 195,997 11.0 Note : “Port Hour” means the duration in which a ship stays in port area “Berth Hour” means the duration in which a ship moors to a berth “Work Hour” means the duration in which a ship conducts cargo handling at a berth B.O.R. (Berth Occupancy Ratio) = Berth Hour (Av.) x Number of Ships / 365(days) / 24(hours) Productivity (Av.) = Cargo Volume (ton) / Work Hour (Av.) / Number of Ships x 24(hours) Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(2) Berth No.1 a) Berth Characteristics Berth characteristics of Berth No.1 are shown in Table 6.1.6.

Table 6.1.6 Characteristics of Berth No.1 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional, Ro/Ro, Passenger Length 173.1 m Apron Width 17.5 m Depth - 10.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Repair is required with moderate Gravity Wall (1921) Construction) urgency. Bollard Numbers 1 – 8/9 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.7 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.1 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 172, 174 and 180 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10% of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 156 m. Table 6.1.7 shows also LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth. It is evident that the initial designed berth length has exceeded by 90 % of the vessels calling at Berth No.1 in 2014. Only 10 % of calling vessels had a LOA that fit within the designated berth. This is having an impact on the occupancy level of Berth No.2.

Table 6.1.7 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.1 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 156 m 156 m 180 239 m 191 m 162 18 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Time Table 6.1.8 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.1. Approximately 27 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 47 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 77 hours and 41 hours respectively. Occupancy rate of Berth No.1 was 75 %. Although almost zero waiting time would be expected with this occupancy rate based on the queueing theory analysis, many ships had to wait for berthing for long hours. It seems that waiting by S/C makes the berth idle and decreases the available time of the berth.

Table 6.1.8 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.1 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 180 48 2,270 1,650 620 40 8 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.9 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.1 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the

6-3 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 429 thousand, 635 and 829 thousand tons respectively. It is clear that the cargo volume at the berth has been increasing. Commodities handled at the berth include bulk wheat, bulk gypsum, bulk salt, containers, general/loose, logs, motorcars, iron and steel. The berth handled 824,035 tons in 2014, of which 83 % were imports. Most vessels calling at Mombasa port with motorcars are received at Berth No. 1. The berth received 78 vessels which carried only motorcars in 2014. Such vessels are Ro/Ro car carriers. The berth also handled 98 vessels with a mixed combination of motorcars, general and container cargo. Cargo in both categories accounted for 91 % of cargo handled at Berth No.1.

Table 6.1.9 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.1 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bulk Gypsum 1 9,560 0 9,560 1 Bulk Salt 1 36,440 0 36,440 4 Bulk Wheat 2 25,783 0 25,783 3 Containers 19 91,223 33,225 124,448 15 Containers / Motorcars 1 5,673 6,448 12,121 2 Fish 2 75 0 75 0 General 10 3,810 2,999 6,809 1 Motorcars 78 163,957 18,849 182,806 22 Motorcars / Containers 22 143,821 75,602 219,423 27 Motorcars / Containers / General 2 11,745 1,543 13,288 2 Motorcars / General 32 74,802 3,090 77,892 9 Motorcars / General / Containers 1 1,490 48 1,538 0 Steel 9 111,906 1,946 113,852 14 Total 180 680,285 143,750 824,035 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.10 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.1 in 2014. Productivities for Motorcars in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 2,579, 2,019 and 2,925 ton/work-day respectively. Productivities for steel in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 7,704, 5,626 and 5,669 ton/work-day respectively.

Table 6.1.10 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.1 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Work Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) Hour (Av.) Hour (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bulk Gypsum 9,560 91 52 51 0.6 4,470 Bulk Salt 36,440 119 100 91 1.1 9,619 Bulk Wheat 25,783 122 121 51 2.8 6,192 Containers 124,448 93 65 40 14.2 5,590 Containers / Motorcars 12,121 56 19 40 0.2 7,349 Fish 75 244 178 5 4.1 236 General 6,809 90 51 19 5.8 1,224 Motorcars 182,806 39 23 19 20.1 2,925 Motorcars / Containers 219,423 54 40 36 10.0 6,704 Motorcars / Containers / General 13,288 42 32 27 0.7 4,807 Motorcars / General 77,892 39 25 20 9.1 2,918 Motorcars / General / Containers 1,538 26 23 14 0.3 2,560 Steel 113,852 116 56 52 5.8 5,669 Total 824,035 74.7 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(3) Berth No.2 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.2 are shown in Table 6.1.11.

Table 6.1.11 Characteristics of Berth No.2 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional, Passenger Length 166.4 m Apron Width 17.5 m Depth - 10.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Repair is required with moderate Gravity Wall (1921) Construction) urgency. Bollard Numbers 8/9-15/16 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.12 shows the number of calling vessels at Berth No.2 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 25, 8 and 4 vessels respectively. The vessels calling at Berth No.2 are very few because a portion of Berth 2 is often utilized by vessels calling at Berth No.1, which have LOAs exceeding the designed length of Berth No.1. Berth No.2 is therefore largely occupied by the overhanging vessels from Berth No.1. The 162 vessels that exceeded designated Berth No.1 length of 156 m were partially accommodated at Berth No. 2. The berth occupancy rate is 4.6 % which is misleading because, as previously stated, Berth No. 2 partially accommodate overhanging of vessels served at Beth No. 1.

Table 6.1.12 Number of Calling Vessels on Berth No.2 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 150 m 150 m 4 190 m 30 m 3 1 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Time Table 6.1.13 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.2. The berth seems to show no waiting time in 2014.

Table 6.1.13 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.2 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.14 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.2 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 30 thousand, 23 and 34 thousand tons respectively. The berth which received a few vessels only handled bagged maize, general and steel in 2014.

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Table 6.1.14 Commodities and Cargo Volume at Berth No.2 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bagged Maize 1 13,761 0- 13,761 41 General 2 82 245 327 1 Steel 1 19,628 0 19,628 58 Total 4 33,471 245 33,716 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.15 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.2 in 2014. Productivities are very low.

Table 6.1.15 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.2 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bagged Maize 13,761 274.2 270.4 257.3 3.1 1.284 General 327 47.6 30.8 15.7 0.7 393 Steel 19,628 74.0 70.1 65.5 0.8 7,192 Total 33,716 4.6 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(4) Berth No. 3 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.3 are shown in Table 6.1.16.

Table 6.1.16 Characteristics of Berth No.3 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 166.4 m Apron Width 17.5 m Depth - 10.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Repair is required with moderate Gravity Wall (1926) Construction) urgency. Bollard Numbers 15/16 – 22/23 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.17 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.3 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 75, 64 and 78 vessels respectively. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth. It is evident that the initial designed berth length has been exceeded by 92 % of the vessels calling at Berth No.3 in 2014. Only 8 % percent of calling vessels had a LOA that fit within the designated berth.

Table 6.1.17 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.3 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 150 m 150 m 78 243 m 179 m 72 6 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Time Table 6.1.18 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.3. Approximately 49 % of calling vessels experienced waiting; the average waiting time was 146 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 207 hours and 133 hours respectively. Most vessels (91 %) waited to berth because the GHBL Berth was occupied. The berth is the only facility with specialized equipment for handling of bulk grains. This explains why many vessels with bulk grains had to queue. Waiting because the GBHL berth was occupied accounted for 26 % of the total waiting time, while waiting for ship convenience and berth occupied accounted for 19 % and 55 % respectively.

Table 6.1.18 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.1 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 78 38 5,559 4,112* 1,446 31** 7 Note *: The figure consists of 1,595 hours for occupied GBHL facility and 244 hours for berth occupied in general. Note **: The figure consists of 22 ships for occupied GBHL facility and 2 ships for berth occupied in general. Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.19 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.3 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the

6-7 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 1,016 thousand, 1,548 and 1,875 thousand tons respectively. It is clear that the cargo volume at the berth has been increasing. Berth No. 3 is used by Grain Bulk Handlers Ltd for handling grain bulk vessels. Bulk grains are unloaded via three ship unloaders and two overhead conveyors which transfer the grain to a large storage facility outside the Port. The berth handled 1,875,143 tons of cargo in 2014, of which bulk wheat was the largest commodity handled (89 % of total).

Table 6.1.19 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.3 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bulk Sorghum 8 189,069 0 189,069 10 Bulk Wheat 62 1,663,166 0 1,663,166 89 Containers 2 1,470 7,224 8,694 1 General / Containers 1 362 0 362 0 General / Steel 1 600 0 600 0 Logs 1 103 0 103 0 Motorcars 1 1,303 0 1,303 0 Steel 1 4,802 0 4,802 0 Steel / Motorcars / General 1 7,044 0 7,044 0 Total 78 1,867,919 7,224 1,875,143 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.20 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.3 in 2014. Productivities for bulk wheat in 2008 and 2014 are 6,258 and 7,352 ton/work-day respectively.

Table 6.1.20 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.3 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bulk Sorghum 189,069 163 82 75 7.5 7,259 Bulk Wheat 1,663,166 191 99 91 69.8 7,352 Containers 8,694 288 62 59 1.4 1,750 General / Containers 362 60 17 12 0.2 709 General / Steel 600 34 58 32 0.7 457 Logs 103 177 5 3 0.1 802 Motorcars 1,303 21 18 12 0.2 2,624 Steel 4,802 187 83 64 1.0 1,805 Steel / Motorcars / General 7,044 160 155 153 1.8 1,105 Total 1,875,143 82.5 Source: KPA and the Project Team

6-8 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

(5) Berth No.4 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.4 are shown in Table 6.1.21.

Table 6.1.21 Characteristics of Berth No.4 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 190.2 m Apron Width 17.5 m Depth - 10.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Repair is required with moderate Gravity Wall (1926) Construction) urgency. Bollard Numbers 22/23-30/31 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.22 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.4 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 45, 92 and 95 vessels respectively. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth. Approximately, 24 % of calling vessels exceeds the initial designed berth length of Berth No.4 in 2014.

Table 6.1.22 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.4 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 171 m 171 m 95 249 m 137 m 23 72 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Time Table 6.1.23 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.4. Approximately 43 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 80 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 94 hours and 72 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.23 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.4 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 95 41 3,284 1,872* 1,411 26** 15 Note *: The figure consists of 88 hours for occupied GBHL facility and 1,110 hours for berth occupied in general. Note **: The figure consists of 1 ship for occupied GBHL facility and 18 ships for berth occupied in general. Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.24 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.4 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 101 thousand, 729 thousand and 541 thousand tons respectively. Berth No. 4 is also used by Grain Bulk Handlers Ltd for handling grains as the conveyors from Berth 3 extend up to Berth 4. Containers constitute 45 % of the total. Other main commodities include steel (25 %) and bulk wheat (17 %).

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Table 6.1.24 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.4 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bulk Sorghum 3 17,893 0 17,893 3 Bulk Wheat 5 90,891 0 90,891 17 Containers 48 131,961 109,171 241,132 45 Containers / Motorcars 1 0 1,249 1,249 0 Fish 2 191 0 191 0 General 10 5,525 4,916 10,441 2 Genera/ / Containers 1 90 3 93 0 General / Motorcars 1 161 736 897 0 General / Steel 1 9,996 0 9,996 2 General / Steel / Motorcars 1 5,112 0 5,112 1 Motorcars 3 14 170 184 0 Motorcars / Containers 4 1,584 3,621 5,205 1 Motorcars / Containers / General 1 1,954 1,320 3,274 1 Motorcars / Containers / General / Steel 1 4,666 0 4,666 1 Project Cargo 1 11,946 0 11,946 2 Steel 11 136,681 0 136,681 25 Steel / General 1 1,227 0 1,227 0 Total 95 419,892 121,186 541,078 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.25 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.4 in 2014.

Table 6.1.25 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.4 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Work Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) Hour (Av.) Hour (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bulk Sorghum 3 64 56 22 1.9 5,986 Bulk Wheat 5 205 99 90 5.7 3,708 Containers 48 98 58 51 32.0 2,848 Containers / Motorcars 1 123 13 9 0.2 3,212 Fish 2 122 109 17 2.5 138 General 10 200 79 63 9.0 506 Genera/ / Containers 1 129 3 1 0.0 1,674 General / Motorcars 1 86 85 78 1.0 275 General / Steel 1 403 163 160 1.9 1,501 General / Steel / Motorcars 1 476 226 225 2.6 545 Motorcars 3 146 114 1 3.9 989 Motorcars / Containers 4 266 134 15 6.1 2,429 Motorcars / Containers / General 1 43 39 38 0.4 2,077 Motorcars / Containers / General 1 124 122 119 1.4 944 / Steel Project Cargo 1 124 122 211 1.4 1,359 Steel 11 162 71 68 9.0 4,856 Steel / General 1 126 66 63 0.8 468 Total 95 79.5 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(6) Berth No.5 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.5 are shown in Table 6.1.26.

Table 6.1.26 Characteristics of Berth No.5 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional, Ro/Ro Length 178.6 m Apron Width 17.5 m Depth - 10.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Repair is required with moderate Gravity Wall (1929) Construction) urgency. Bollard Numbers 30/31-38/39 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.27 shows the number of calling vessels at Berth No.5 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 124, 41 and 111 vessels respectively. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth. It is evident that the initial designed berth length has been exceeded by 77 % of the vessels calling at Berth No.5 in 2014. Only 23 % percent of calling vessels had a LOA that fit within the designated berth.

Table 6.1.27 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.5 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 161 m 161 m 111 239 m 172 m 85 26 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Time Table 6.1.28 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.5. Approximately 38 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 65 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 114 hours and 50 hours respectively. In the former category, 10 vessels which are mainly for general cargo and containers accounted for approximately 41 % of the waiting time, while 32 vessel waited due to berth occupied (mainly for containers and car carrier vessels). 59 % of waiting time is due to berth occupied.

Table 6.1.28 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.5 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 111 42 2,744 1,607 1,137 32 10 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.29 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.5 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 830 thousand, 319 thousand and 1,152 thousand tons respectively. Berth No. 5 is multi-purpose, mainly used for general cargo and containers, but occasionally Ro/Ro vessels do use the berth for the discharge of containers to the yards behind the berths. The berth

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Table 6.1.29 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.5 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bulk Clinker 1 23,945 0 23,945 2 Containers 79 718,848 274,473 993,321 86 Fish 1 100 0 100 0 General 3 5,358 1,241 6,599 1 General / Bagged Sorghum 1 0 1,337 1,337 0 General / Containers 1 0 208 208 0 Motorcars 13 22,572 15 22,587 2 Motorcars / Containers 1 0 1,766 1,766 0 Motorcars / General 2 3,765 0 3,765 1 Motorcars / General / Containers 1 3,565 45 3,610 0 Steel 8 93,557 1,077 94,634 8 Total 111 871,710 280,162 1,151,872 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.30 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.5 in 2014.

Table 6.1.30 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.5 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bulk Clinker 23,945 272 67 52.7 0.8 10,894 Containers 993,321 113 80 72.7 72.3 5,151 Fish 100 120 20 5.5 0.2 436 General 6,599 130 70 61.0 2.4 2,534 General / Bagged 1,337 259 104 87.0 369 Sorghum 1.2 General / Containers 208 424 46 31.8 0.5 157 Motorcars 22,587 83 25 14.6 3.7 4,154 Motorcars / Containers 1,766 59 31 26.1 0.4 1,625 Motorcars / General 3,765 123 78 75.6 1.8 595 Motorcars / General / 3,610 45 41 38.2 2,270 Containers 0.5 Steel 94,634 210 65 60.1 5.9 5,411 Total 1,151,872 89.6 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(7) Berth No.7 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.7 are shown in Table 6.1.31.

Table 6.1.31 Characteristics of Berth No.7 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 208.2 m Apron Width 20.42 m Depth - 10.0 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Repair is required with moderate Construction) Piles (1942-1944) urgency. Bollard Numbers 38-49 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.32 shows the number of calling vessels at Berth No.7 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 31, 76 and 62 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10 % of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 187 m. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth. Approximately, 37 % of calling vessels exceeds the initial designed berth length of Berth No.7 in 2014.

Table 6.1.32 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.7 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 187 m 187 m 62 209 m 171 m 23 39 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Time Table 6.1.33 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.7. Approximately 34 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 155 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 329 hours and 85 hours respectively. Berth occupied accounted for 39 % of the waiting time. Waiters due to berth occupied were mostly carrying bulk fertilizer.

Table 6.1.33 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.7 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 62 21 3,256 1,281 1,975 15 6 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.34 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.7 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 227 thousand, 551 thousand and 856 thousand tons respectively. Berth No.7 is multi-purpose, mainly used for handling bagged/bulk fertilizer, clinker, and salt.

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Table 6.1.34 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.7 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bagged Fertilizer 1 7,246 0 7,246 1 Bagged Rice 1 6,001 0 6,001 1 Bulk Clinker 4 111,057 0 111,057 13 Bulk Fertilizer 12 228,615 0 228,615 27 Bulk Salt 1 37,458 0 37,458 4 Bulk Sorghum 2 5,011 0 5,011 1 Containers 7 8,812 14,205 23,017 3 General 8 15,187 1,238 16,425 2 General / Motorcars / Steel 1 18,393 0 18,393 2 Motorcars 2 3,772 0 3,772 0 Motorcars / General 1 315 0 315 0 Motorcars / General / Steel 1 4,511 0 4,511 0 Relief 2 33,074 0 33,074 4 Steel 19 356,744 4,386 361,130 42 Total 62 836,196 19,829 856,025 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.35 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.7 in 2014.

Table 6.1.35 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.7 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Commodity Volume B.O.R* (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bagged Fertilizer 7,246 513 388 360 4.4 484 Bagged Rice 6,001 86 77 70 0.9 2,059 Bulk Clinker 111,057 142 89 86 4.1 8,018 Bulk Fertilizer 228,615 257 212 181 29.0 2,397 Bulk Salt 37,458 103 100 94 1.1 9,589 Bulk Sorghum 5,011 49 48 47 1.1 1,275 Containers 23,017 156 97 56 7.8 1,612 General 16,425 354 74 64 6.8 1,204 General / Motorcars / Steel 18,393 292 225 243 2.6 1,817 Motorcars 3,772 36 19 244 0.4 1,270 Motorcars / General 315 11 6 3 0.1 3,024 Motorcars / General / Steel 4,511 403 78 77 0.9 1,405 Relief 33,074 217 214 200 4.9 1,992 Steel 361,130 171 122 112 26.5 4,955 Total 856,025 90.6 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(8) Berth No.8 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.8 are shown in Table 6.1.36.

Table 6.1.36 Characteristics of Berth No.8 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 170.7 m Apron Width 20.42 m Depth - 11.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Repair is required with moderate Construction) Piles (1942-1944) urgency. Bollard Numbers 49-56/57 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.37 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.8 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 61, 56 and 39 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10 % of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 154 m. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth.

Table 6.1.37 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.8 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 154 m 154 m 39 243 m 85 m 5 34 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.38 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.8. Approximately 28 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 107 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 137 hours and 53 hours respectively. Waiting time by ship convenience accounted for 82 % of the total, while 18 % was due to berth occupied. Most vessels waiting on ships convenience are for general cargo which includes containers, bagged fertilizers, motor cars, bagged sugar, bagged rice and steel.

Table 6.1.38 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.8 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 39 11 1,173 212 961 4 7 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.39 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.8 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 169 thousand, 222 thousand and 37 thousand tons respectively. Berth No.8 is mainly used for handling general cargo, steel, and logs.

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Table 6.1.39 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.8 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Containers 5 192 4,346 4,538 12 General 22 759 4,814 5,573 15 General / Containers 1 68 56 124 0 Logs 6 9,958 0 9,958 27 Motorcars / General 1 3,530 0 3,530 10 Project Cargo 1 1,059 0 1,059 3 Steel 2 5,887 0 5,887 16 Steel / General 1 6,488 0 6,488 17 Total 39 27,941 9,216 37,157 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.40 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.8 in 2014.

Table 6.1.40 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.8 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Containers 4,538 170 53 25 3.0 810 General 5,573 170 77 40 19.2 354 General / Containers 124 744 60 58 0.7 52 Logs 9,958 156 123 119 8.5 304 Motorcars / General 3,530 98 94 80 1.1 1,055 Project Cargo 1,059 29 26 18 0.3 1,439 Steel 5,887 96 64 60 1.5 901 Steel / General 6,488 403 158 154 1.8 1,009 Total 37,157 36.0 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(9) Berth No.9 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.9 are shown in Table 6.1.41.

Table 6.1.41 Characteristics of Berth No.9 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 179.8 m Apron Width 20.42 m Depth - 11.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab R/C Piles Repair is required with moderate Construction) (1956-1959) urgency. Bollard Numbers 56/57-64/65 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.42 shows the number of calling vessels at Berth No.9 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 58, 54 and 62 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10 % of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 162 m. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth.

Table 6.1.42 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.9 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 162 m 162 m 62 212 m 172 m 52 10 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.43 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.9. Approximately 40 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 71 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 83 hours and 68 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.43 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No9 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 62 25 1,786 1,290 496 19 6 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.44 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.9 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 268 thousand, 761 thousand and 1,345 thousand tons respectively. This berth mostly handles clinker, coal, bulk fertilizer and steel due to accessibility by trucks.

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Table 6.1.44 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.9 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bulk Clinker 27 912,900 0 912,900 68 Bulk Coal 4 109,244 0 109,244 8 Bulk Fertilizer 3 95,385 0 95,385 7 Bulk Gypsum 1 38,630 0 38,630 3 Containers 6 35,556 9,715 45,271 3 General 7 21,904 2,276 24,180 2 Motorcars 3 5,804 0 5,804 1 Motorcars / General 1 2,336 0 2,336 0 Motorcars / Steel / General 1 27,969 0 27,969 2 Steel 9 83,399 0 83,399 6 Total 62 1,333,127 11,991 1,345,118 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.45 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.9 in 2014.

Table 6.1.45 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.9 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Volume B.O.R. Productivity (Av.) Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bulk Clinker 912,900 151 108 102 33.3 8,206 Bulk Coal 109,244 219 154 149 7.0 5,405 Bulk Fertilizer 95,385 413 394 376 13.5 2,132 Bulk Gypsum 38,630 109 105 99 1.2 9,412 Containers 45,271 121 79 75 5.4 2,962 General 24,180 144 61 55 4.9 1,258 Motorcars 5,804 35 27 23 0.9 2,192 Motorcars / General 2,336 53 33 26 0.4 2,177 Motorcars / Steel / General 27,969 368 364 357 4.2 1,880 Steel 83,399 301 172 74 17.7 2,808 Total 1,345,118 88.5 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(10) Berth No.10 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.10 are shown in Table 6.1.46.

Table 6.1.46 Characteristics of Berth No.10 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 204.2 m Apron Width 20.42 m Depth - 10.0 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Repair is required with moderate Construction) Piles (1956-1959) urgency. Bollard Numbers 64/65-73/74 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.47 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.10 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 67, 51 and 56 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10 % of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 184 m. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth.

Table 6.1.47 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.10 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 184 m 184 m 56 243 m 179 m 37 19 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.48 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.10. Approximately 43 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 86 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 167 hours and 64 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.48 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.10 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 56 24 2,056 1,219 837 19 5 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.49 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.10 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 471 thousand, 1,058 thousand and 1,325 thousand tons respectively. Berth No. 10 is also a preferred berth for clinker and steel because of the nature of cargo and accessibility of trucks for direct delivery.

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Table 6.1.49 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.10 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bulk Clinker 27 937,097 0 937,097 71 Bulk Coal 6 195,001 0 195,001 15 Bulk Fertilizer 3 49,834 0 49,834 3 Containers 1 0 1,343 1,343 0 General 4 7,845 652 8,497 1 General / Motorcars / Steel 1 5,838 0 5,838 0 General / Steel / Motorcars 1 1,324 0 1,324 0 Locomotives 2 627 0 627 0 Motorcars 1 1,811 0 1,811 0 Motorcars / Steel 1 29,661 0 29,661 2 Project Cargo 1 17,599 0 17,599 1 Slag 1 13,170 0 13,170 1 Steel 7 63,747 0 63,747 5 Total 56 1,323,554 1,995 1,325,549 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.50 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.10 in 2014.

Table 6.1.50 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.10 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bulk Clinker 937,097 149 112 106 34.4 8,279 Bulk Coal 195,001 247 140 133 9.6 6,434 Bulk Fertilizer 49,834 204 184 178 6.3 2,473 Containers 1,343 74 51 44 0.6 727 General 8,497 130 78 73 3.6 525 General / Motorcars / Steel 5,838 638 548 545 6.3 257 General / Steel / Motorcars 1,324 476 52 36 0.6 889 Locomotives 627 62 16 11 0.4 1,024 Motorcars 1,811 39 33 18 0.4 2,393 Motorcars / Steel 29,661 317 274 241 3.1 2,950 Project Cargo 17,599 638 218 217 2.5 1,945 Slag 13,170 59 57 56 0.7 5,695 Steel 63,747 172 53 79 4.2 3,106 Total 1,325,549 72.5 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(11) Berth No.11 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.11 are shown in Table 6.1.51.

Table 6.1.51 Characteristics of Berth No.11 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 184.4 m Apron Width 20.5 m Depth - 10.0 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Urgent repair is required. Construction) Piles (1958/59) Bollard Numbers 75-85 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.52 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.11 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 82, 74 and 106 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10 % of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 166 m. This table also shows LOA distribution of calling vessels at the berth.

Table 6.1.52 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.11 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 166 m 166 m 106 211 m 158 m 69 37 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.53 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.11. Approximately 28 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 59 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 73 hours and 57 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.53 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.11 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 106 30 1,764 1,473 291 26 4 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.54 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.11 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 598 thousand, 583 thousand and 654 thousand tons respectively. Berth No.11 is designated as a conventional cargo berth. The berth mainly handles steel, containers and bulk coal.

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Table 6.1.54 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.11 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bagged Cement 9 0 4,733 4,733 1 Bagged Rice 3 0 2,002 2,002 0 Bulk Coal 3 47,751 0 47,751 7 Bulk Gypsum 1 4,710 0 4,710 1 Containers 33 277,910 50,513 328,423 50 Fish 1 60 0 60 0 General 10 29,584 4,519 34,103 5 General / Containers 2 1,388 0 1,388 0 General / Containers / Steel 1 7,449 0 7,449 2 General / Motorcars / Steel 1 6,274 0 6,274 1 General / Steel 1 2,342 0 2,342 0 General / Steel / Motorcars / Containers 1 6,734 0 6,734 1 Livestock 2 0 244 244 0 Motorcars 20 33,196 80 33,276 5 Motorcars / Containers / General 1 2,347 401 2,748 0 Motorcars / General 4 8,093 0 8,093 2 Relief 1 11,929 0 11,929 2 Steel 10 148,151 0 148,151 23 Steel / General 1 2,122 0 2,122 0 Steel / General / Containers 1 1,756 0 1,756 0 Total 106 591,796 62,492 654,288 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.55 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.11 in 2014. Container vessels handled cargo at the berth with ships gears.

Table 6.1.55 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.11by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bagged Cement 4,733 63 22 17 2.2 860 Bagged Rice 2,002 53 43 20 1.5 845 Bulk Coal 47,751 200 98 95 3.3 5,035 Bulk Gypsum 4,710 91 37 29 0.4 3,865 Containers 328,423 136 100 86 37.7 2,807 Fish 60 58 51 5 0.6 320 General 34,103 116 84 80 9.6 928 General / Containers 1,388 50 32 30 0.7 847 General / Containers / Steel 7,449 283 199 190 2.3 941 General / Motorcars / Steel 6,274 292 85 82 1.0 1,836 General / Steel 2,342 64 63 61 0.7 928 General / Steel / Motorcars / Containers 6,734 476 183 181 2.1 894 Livestock 244 22 16 8 0.4 363 Motorcars 33,276 40 23 17 5.3 2,421 Motorcars / Containers / General 2,748 139 135 127 1.5 520 Motorcars / General 8,093 46 23 18 1.0 2,805 Relief 11,929 213 206 195 2.4 1,465 Steel 148,151 147 86 90 9.8 4,844 Steel / General 2,122 126 48 64 0.5 791 Steel / General / Containers 1,756 99 95 87 1.1 483 Total 654,288 84.2 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(12) Berth No.12 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.12 are shown in Table 6.1.56.

Table 6.1.56 Characteristics of Berth No.12 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional Length 182.9 m Apron Width 20.3 m Depth - 10.0 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Urgent repair is required. Construction) Piles (1958/59) Bollard Numbers 85-95/96 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.57 shows the number of calling vessels at Berth No.12 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 102, 73 and 113 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10 % of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 165 m. LOA of calling vessels were within the design LOA.

Table 6.1.57 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.12 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 165 m 165 m 113 208 m 51 m 4 109 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.58 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.12. Approximately 42 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 93 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 91 hours and 110 hours respectively. Most vessels waited due to ship convenience, which accounted 87 % of total time waited at the berth in 2014. Waiting due to berth occupied accounted for 13 % of the total.

Table 6.1.58 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.12 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 113 47 4,386 657 3,729 6 41 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.59 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.12 in 2014. Total cargo volumes at the berth in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 160 thousand, 64 thousand and 53 thousand tons respectively. The berth handled more exports than imports. Exports accounted for 97 % of the total volume of cargo handled at the berth. Major commodities handled include cement and general cargo.

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Table 6.1.59 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.12 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) ommodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bagged Cement 21 0 9,923 9,923 19 Bagged Rice 7 0 3,115 3,115 6 Fish 2 60 40 100 0 General 80 503 38,832 39,335 74 Livestock 1 0 123 123 0 Logs 2 840 0 840 1 Total 113 1,403 52,033 53,436 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team e) Operations Table 6.1.60 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.12 in 2014. Container vessels handled cargo at the berth with ships gears.

Table 6.1.60 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.12 in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bagged Cement 9,923 71 24 18 5.7 748 Bagged Rice 3,115 56 26 21 2.1 732 Fish 100 64 57 44 1.3 82 General 39,335 109 62 33 56.8 705 Livestock 123 22 19 11 0.2 264 Logs 840 87 81 72 1.8 143 Total 53,436 68.0 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(13) Berth No.13 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.13 are shown in Table 6.1.61.

Table 6.1.61 Characteristics of Berth No.13 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional/ Container Length 174 m Apron Width 20.3 m Depth - 10.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Urgent repair is required. Construction) Piles (1958/59) Bollard Numbers 95/96-105/106 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.62 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.13 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 88, 92 and 104 vessels respectively. Most vessels handled at the berth (81 %) have a LOA exceeding berth design lengths.

Table 6.1.62 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.13 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 157 m 157 m 104 210 m 176 m 84 20 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.63 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.13. Approximately 26 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 41 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 81 hours and 32 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.63 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.13 in 2014 No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) No. of Waited Vessels by Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 104 27 1,107 700 407 22 5 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.64 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.13 in 2014. Total cargo volume at the berth in 2014 is 988 thousand tons. Berth 13 is a designated container berth to handled container vessels with ship gears. Commodities handled at Berth 13 are shown in the table below. Containers accounted for 95 % of the total in 2014. Other major commodities handled include motors, steel and general cargo.

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Table 6.1.64 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.13 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bagged Cement 4 0 2,359 2,359 0 Bagged Rice 1 0 539 539 0 Bagged Sorghum 1 0 3,394 3,394 1 Containers 74 36,142 37,460 942,130* 96 Fish 2 266 28 294 0 General 5 950 752 1,702 0 General / Containers 2 2,202 0 2,202 0 Logs 2 928 0 928 0 Motorcars 12 13,793 706 14,499 1 Steel 1 19,800 0 19,800 2 Total 104 74,081 45,238 987,847 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage. e) Operations Table 6.1.65 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.13 in 2014. This berth received mostly container vessels with cranes.

Table 6.1.65 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.13 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bagged Cement 2,359 99 21 20 1.0 893 Bagged Rice 539 54 30 18 0.3 715 Bagged Sorghum 3,394 167 85 71 1.0 1,142 Containers 942,130* 95 77 72 65.4 4,495 Fish 294 141 69 19 1.6 274 General 1,702 88 62 39 3.5 309 General / Containers 2,202 47 41 33 0.9 690 Logs 928 233 104 78 2.4 151 Motorcars 14,499 36 24 19 3.3 2,692 Steel 19,800 70 65 60 0.7 7,898 Total 987,847 80.2 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage.

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(14) Berth No.14 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.14 are shown in Table 6.1.66.

Table 6.1.66 Characteristics of Berth No.14 Item Fact Note Berth Type Conventional/ Container Length 181.4 m Apron Width 20.3 m Depth - 10.0 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Urgent repair is required. Construction) Piles (1958/59) Bollard Numbers 105/106-116/117 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.67 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.14 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 90, 93 and 87 vessels respectively. Most vessels handled at the berth (83 %) have their LOA exceeding the berth design lengths.

Table 6.1.67 Number of Calling Vessels on Berth No.14 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 163 m 163 m 87 212 m 183 m 72 15 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.68 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.14. Approximately 25 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 66 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 171 hours and 35 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.68 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.14 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 87 22 1,448 595 853 17 5 Source: KPA and the Project Team d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.69 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.14 in 2014. Total cargo volume at the berth in 2014 is 1,383 thousand tons. Berth No.14 is a designated container berth for vessels with own handling gears. Containers accounted for 99 % of the total volume of commodities in tons handled at the berth.

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Table 6.1.69 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.14 in 2014 Volume of Cargo (ton) Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import Export Total Bagged Cement 1 0 840 840 0 Bagged Rice 1 0 780 780 0 Bagged Sugar / Bagged Rice 1 0 572 572 0 Containers 73 57,133 42,518 1,364,914* 99 Fish 1 210 0 210 0 General 7 729 2,749 3,478 0 Motorcars 3 11,725 0 11,725 1 Total 87 69,797 47,459 1,382,519 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage. e) Operations Table 6.1.70 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.14 in 2014. This berth received mostly container vessels with cranes.

Table 6.1.70 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.14 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Productivity Volume B.O.R. Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Bagged Cement 840 32 23 19 0.3 1,047 Bagged Rice 780 37 28 27 0.3 702 Bagged Sugar / Bagged 572 30 28 21 0.3 670 Rice Containers 1,364,914* 106 89 75 73.8 5,900 Fish 210 295 29 26 0.3 198 General 3,478 267 116 25 9.2 751 Motorcars 11,725 55 51 47 1.7 2,030 Total 1,382,519 86.0 1,047 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage.

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(15) Berth No.16 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.16 are shown in Table 6.1.71.

Table 6.1.71 Characteristics of Berth No.16 Item Fact Note Berth Type Container Length 177.7 m Apron Width 29.3 m Depth - 12.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Repair is required with moderate Construction) Piles (1971-75) urgency. Bollard Numbers 116/117-128 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.72 shows the number of calling vessels at Berth No.16 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 145, 109 and 108 vessels respectively. Almost all the vessels calling at the berth had a LOA which exceeded the berth design length of 160 m. This berth is a specialized handling facility for container vessels.

Table 6.1.72 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.16 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 160 m 160 m 108 243 m 198 m 101 7 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.73 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.16. Approximately 59 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 79 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 108 hours and 78 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.73 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.16 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 108 64 5,045 4,829 216 62 2 Source: KPA and the Project Team

6-29 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.74 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.16 in 2014. Total cargo volume at the berth in 2014 is 1,590 thousand ton (127 thousand TEUs).

Table 6.1.74 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.16 in 2014 Volume of Cargo Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import (TEU) Export (TEU) Total (ton) Containers 108 72,711 54,042 1,589,552* 100 Total 108 72,711 54,042 1,589,552 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage. e) Operations Table 6.1.75 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.16 in 2014.

Table 6.1.75 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.16 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Volume B.O.R. Productivity (Av.) Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Containers 1,589,552* 129 81 72 100.0 5,434 Total 1,589,552 100.0 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage.

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(16) Berth No.17 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.17 are shown in Table 6.1.76.

Table 6.1.76 Characteristics of Berth No.17 Item Fact Note Berth Type Container Length 182.9 m Apron Width 29.3 m Depth - 12.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Repair is required with moderate Construction) Piles (1971-75) urgency. Bollard Numbers 128-139 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.77 shows the number of calling vessels on Berth No.17 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 125, 115 and 103 vessels respectively. Only 3 vessels calling at the berth had a LOA within the berth design length, while 100 vessels had a LOA which exceeded the design berth length.

Table 6.1.77 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.17 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 165 m 165 m 103 244 m 205 m 100 3 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.78 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.17. Approximately 60 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 82 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 0 hours and 82 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.78 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.17 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 103 62 5,067 5,067 0 62 0 Source: KPA and the Project Team

6-31 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.79 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.17 in 2014. Total cargo volume at the berth in 2014 is 1,619 thousand tons (130.5 thousand TEUs).

Table 6.1.79 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.17 in 2014 Volume of Cargo Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import (TEU) Export (TEU) Total (ton) Containers 103 75,136 55,390 1,618,674* 100 Total 103 75,136 55,390 1,618,674 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage. e) Operations Table 6.1.80 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.17 in 2014.

Table 6.1.80 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.17 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Volume B.O.R. Productivity (Av.) Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Containers 1,618,674* 129 81 72 89.6 5,633 Total 1,618,674 89.6 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage.

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(17) Berth No.18 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.18 are shown in Table 6.1.81.

Table 6.1.81 Characteristics of Berth No.18 Item Fact Note Berth Type Container Length 239 m Apron Width 29.3 m Depth - 12.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C Repairs are recommended with low Construction) Piles (1977) priority. Bollard Numbers 139-152 Source: KPA and Berth Rehabilitation Report 2 (2014) b) Number of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.82 shows the number of calling vessels at Berth No.18 in 2014. The number of calling vessels in 2008, 2011 and 2014 are 125, 24 and 116 vessels respectively. Berth length consists of LOA of a vessel and required length of mooring lines. Assuming that the required length of mooring lines is 10 % of LOA, a theoretical maximum LOA of calling vessel is approximately 215 m.

Table 6.1.82 Number of Calling Vessels at Berth No.18 in 2014 LOA No. of Vessels longer than No. of Vessels less than No. of Vessels Max. Ave. 215 m 215 m 116 249 m 209 m 36 80 Source: KPA and the Project Team c) Berth Waiting Times Table 6.1.83 shows vessel waiting hours at Berth No.18. Approximately 57 % of calling vessels experienced waiting and the average waiting time was 81 hours. Average waiting times by ship convenience (S/C) and by occupied berth (B/O) were 79 hours and 81 hours respectively.

Table 6.1.83 Vessel Waiting Hours at Berth No.18 in 2014 No. of Waited Vessels by No. of Vessels (ships/year) Waiting Times (hours) Reason Total Waited Total (hours) B/O S/C B/O S/C 116 66 5,321 5,243 79 65 1 Source: KPA and the Project Team

6-33 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area d) Commodity and Cargo Volume Table 6.1.84 shows commodities and cargo volume at Berth No.18 in 2014. Total cargo volume at the berth in 2014 is 2,281 thousand tons (172 thousand TEUs).

Table 6.1.84 Commodity and Cargo Volume at Berth No.18 in 2014 Volume of Cargo Commodity Type No. of Vessels Share (%) Import (TEU) Export (TEU) Total (ton) Containers 116 103,333 68,294 2,280,653* 100 Total 116 103,333 68,294 2,280,653 100 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage. e) Operations Table 6.1.85 shows various indicators on cargo handling at Berth No.18 in 2014.

Table 6.1.85 Various Indicators on Cargo Handling at Berth No.18 by commodity in 2014 Port Hour Berth Hour Work Hour Volume B.O.R Productivity (Av.) Commodity (Av.) (Av.) (Av.) (ton) (hour) (hour) (hour) (%) (ton/work-day) Containers 2,280,653* 123 72 69 94.9 7,431 Total 2,280,653 94.9 Source: KPA and the Project Team Note *: Containers in TEU has been converted to tonnage.

(18) Berth No.19 a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Berth No.19 are shown in Table 6.1.86. This berth was completed in 2013. According to the 2014 data, this berth accommodated only two vessels (1-container, 1-fish) in 2014. Due to insufficient data, detailed analysis on operation and performance were not available.

Table 6.1.86 Characteristics of Berth No.19 Item Fact Note Berth Type Container Length 240 m Apron Width 29.3 m Depth - 13.5 m Structural Type (Year of Original Suspended Slab on R/C . Construction) Piles (20012/13) Bollard Numbers 152-160 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(19) Kipevu Oil Terminal a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Kipevu Oil Terminal (KOT) are shown in Table 6.1.86.

Table 6.1.87 Characteristics of Berth No.19 Item Fact Note Berth Type Oil Jetty Length Approx. 300 m Depth - 13.4 m Dolphin type (1963) - Platform 15m x 40m Structural Type (Year of Original - 2 Breasting dolphins Rehabilitated in 1990 Construction) - 3 Mooring dolphins - Trestle 3.3m wide Source: KPA and the Project Team

Due to insufficient data, detailed analysis on operation and performance could not be conducted. However, the volume of oil handled at KOT in 2014 is available as follows: Nos. of Vessels: 58 P.O.L. (ton): 3,764,297

(20) Shimanzi Oil Terminal a) Berth Characteristics Characteristics of Shimanzi Oil Terminal (SOT) are shown in Table 6.1.86. Due to insufficient data, detailed analysis on operation and performance could not be conducted.

Table 6.1.88 Characteristics of Berth No.19 Item Fact Note Berth Type Oil Jetty Length Approx. 170 m Depth - 9.8 m Dolphin type (1931) - Jetty head Structural Type (Year of Original - 2 Breasting dolphins Rehabilitated in 1990 Construction) - 1 Mooring posts onland - Trestle L=45m Source: KPA and the Project Team

Due to insufficient data, detailed analysis on operation and performance could not be conducted. However, the volume of oil handled at SOT in 2014 is available as follows: Nos. of Vessels: 34 P.O.L. (ton): 711,792

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6.1.2 Major Issues on Current Cargo Handling

(1) Berth Occupancy Ratio (B.O.R.) and Waiting Time for Berthing Table 6.1.89 shows B.O.R, possibility of waiting by berth occupied (B/O), waiting time and average waiting time of each mooring facility in 2014. UNCTAD recommends preferable B.O.R for various occasions. In cases where there are 6-10 berths, preferable B.O.R. is 70 %. Since Mombasa Port has more than 10 berths, the preferable B.O.R could be assumed to be approximately 70-75 % at most. Mooring facilities including Berth No. 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17 and 18 exceed the recommended B.O.R. by UNCTAD. Moreover, B.O.R of Berth No.1 and 10 is close to 75 %. Extremely high B.O.R. means that Mombasa Port is critically deficient in mooring facilities including berths and wharf. Accordingly, long waiting time for berthing caused by berth occupied (B/O) takes place. For example, one of every two calling vessels at Berth No.16 has to wait for berthing for 78 hours, in other words 3 days. Berth No.16 is a dedicated facility for container ships. Container ships are in general operated on a pre-arranged schedule and thus are time-conscious. Once a 3-day delay occurs in a port, container delivery services of a shipping company are adversely affected. Moreover, long waiting times due to B/O are observed not only at Berth No.16 but at many other berths as well. Total waiting time caused by B/O in 2014 was 31,807 hours. Assuming that an average charter fee of a vessel is US$ 10,000 per day, economic loss by the waiting time is US$ 13.3 million (31,807/24 x 10,000). The people of Kenya and neighboring countries have to bear this cost in the form of higher commodity prices.

Table 6.1.89 B.O.R. of Berths and other Indicators in 2014 Waiting Possibility by Berth/ B.O.R. Waiting Time Av. Waiting Time B/O* Wharf (%) (%) (hour) (hour/ Vessel) Mbaraki 11.0 0 0 0 No.1 74.7 22 1,650 41 No.2 4.6 0 0 0 No.3 82.5 40 4,112 133 No.4 79.5 27 1,872 72 No.5 89.6 29 1,607 50 No.7 90.6 24 1,281 85 No.8 36.0 10 212 53 No.9 88.5 31 1,290 68 No.10 72.5 34 1,219 64 No.11 84.2 25 1,473 57 No.12 68.0 5 657 110 No.13 80.2 21 700 32 No.14 86.0 20 595 35 No.16 100.0 57 4,829 78 No.17 89.6 60 5,067 82 No.18 94.9 56 5,243 81 No.19 - - - - Total 31,807 Note: *) Percentage of vessels waiting for berthing due to the berth occupied by other vessel Source: KPA and the Project Team

(2) Mixture of Various Commodities in One Mooring Facility Table 6.1.90 shows the allocation of major cargo to berths/wharf in 2014. Motorcars were handled at 11 berths, steel at 9 berths, containers at 15 berths and etc. Only the bulk wheat was handled in a concentrated manner, because efficient wheat unloaders have been installed at berth No.3.

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If a designated berth for a commodity is changed on a case-by-case basis, mobilization of stevedoring laborers and preparation of required cargo handling equipment will take longer than in the case of a fixed berth system for a commodity. Extraordinary mixture of various commodities leads to lower productivity in cargo handling.

Table 6.1.90 Allocation of Major Cargo to Berths/Wharf in 2014 Commodity Berth/Wharf Handled Total Motorcars No.1, No.3, No,4, No.5,No,7, No.9, No.10, No.11, No.12,No.13,No.14 11 Berths Steel No.1, No.3, No.4, No.5, No,7, No.8, No.9, No.10, No.11 9 Berths Container No.1, No.3, No.4, No.5, No.7, No.8, No.9, No.10, No.11, No.13, No.14, 15 Berths No.16-19 Bulk Wheat No.3 1 Berth Bulk Clinker Mbaraki, No.7, No.9, No.10 4 Berths Bulk Fertilizer No.1, No.5, No.7, No.9, No.10, No.11 6 Berths Bulk Coal Mbaraki, No.9, No.10, No.11 4 Berths Other Liquid Bulk Mbaraki, No.8, No.9, No.10 4 Berths Note: Bold character means main berths for major commodities. Note 2: Data on other liquid bulk is in 2014. Source: KPA and the Project Team

(3) Length of a Berth for Current Size of Calling Vessels Table 6.1.91 shows the number of vessels of which LOA exceed originally designed LOA of a berth in 2014. At Berth No.1, almost all vessels have longer LOA than designed LOA. Accordingly, Berth No.2 is also used to accommodate the ships. As a result, the number of calling ships is very limited at Berth No.2. Capacity of Berth No. 2 is not fully utilized. The same phenomenon is also observed at Berth No.16 and 17. There are officially 18 berths/wharfs in Mombasa Port but that number is misleading, as the berths cannot be used effectively due to their inadequate length.

Table 6.1.91 Number of vessels of which LOA exceed originally designed LOA in 2014 Allowable Ships with Longer LOA Berth/ Wharf Number of Calling Ships Ratio LOA. than Designed LOA Mbaraki 276 m 7 0 0 % No.1 156 m 180 162 90 % No.2 150 m 4 3 75 % No.3 150 m 78 72 92 % No.4 171 m 95 23 24 % No.5 161 m 111 85 77 % No.7 187 m 62 23 37 % No.8 154 m 39 5 13 % No.9 162 m 62 52 84 % No.10 184 m 56 37 66 % No.11 166 m 106 69 65 % No.12 165 m 113 4 4 % No.13 157 m 104 84 81 % No.14 163 m 87 72 83 % No.16 160 m 108 101 94 % No.17 165 m 103 100 97 % No.18 215 m 116 36 31 % No.19 216 m 2 - - Total 1,433 928 65 % Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(4) Working Ratio (WR) at Specific Berths Working Ratio (WR) is defined as “Work Hours/Berth Hours”. WR has a significant relation to efficiency of berth/wharf utilization. For example, if WR is 0.1 and a ship is at berth for 10 hours, cargo handling is conducted for only 1 hour. Remaining 9 hours are idle time. This is not efficient utilization of a berth. On the contrary, if WR is 0.95, a berth conducts cargo handling with very high efficiency. Preferable WR is more than 0.8 in general. Table 6.1.92 shows average WR at each mooring facility. Although, Mubaraki Wharf, Berth No.3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 16, 17 and 18 have sufficient WRs, Berth No.1, 8, 12 and 14 have low WRs. These berths handle mainly general cargo. More efficient utilization of berths will be realized if WRs are increased.

Table 6.1.92 Average Working Ratio of Each Berth in 2014 Berth/ Wharf Working Ratio Mbaraki 0.89 No.1 0.71 No.2 0.88 No.3 0.92 No.4 0.77 No.5 0.89 No.7 0.93 No.8 0.68 No.9 0.84 No.10 0.98 No.11 0.88 No.12 0.57 No.13 0.88 No.14 0.78 No.16 0.89 No.17 0.94 No.18 0.99 Source: KPA and the Project Team

(5) Productivity Productivities of major cargo in 2014 are summarized in Table 6.1.93. Motorcars are unloaded mainly at Berth No.1. There is no designated large parking area in Mombasa Port; unloaded vehicles park temporarily at various and scattered places in the port. If a large parking area were established for motorcars, productivity would become twice or three times the current level. Steel is handled by ship gear cranes and trucks in a narrow space because vacant transit sheds are located close to the quay-wall. If a wider space were provided for steel handling, productivity could be dramatically improved. Container handling productivity has already been surveyed in the “SAPROF Review Report.” Bulk wheat is unloaded at Berth No.3 where GBHL’s unloaders are located in. Long waiting time for berthing takes place at Berth No.3 due to the low capacity of existing equipment. Bulk clinker is unloaded mainly at Berth No.10. Productivity at Mbaraki Wharf is low due to the decrepit structure of the jetty and old cargo handling equipment. Bulk fertilizer is unloaded at Berth No.7 and 9. Additional processing of fertilizer, namely packing, is conducted on the apron. Apron is not a space for processing. If another place for storing and processing were to be acquired, productivity at quay-side could be dramatically improved.

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Table 6.1.93 Productivity of Major Cargo Average Productivity Commodity Range of Productivity at Each Berth (ton/day) (ton/day) Motorcars 2,600-3,800 3,000 Steel 3,500-4,900 4,000 Container 900,000 TEU/year at Existing Container Terminals Bulk Wheat 7,600 7,500 Bulk Clinker 5,900-10,300 10,000 Bulk Fertilizer 2,000-2500 2,500 Bulk Coal 5,400-7,500 6,500 Other Liquid Bulk 3,600-14,700 9,000 Source: SAPROF Review Report, KPA and the Project Team

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6.2 Facility Planning

6.2.1 Basic Stance on Facility Planning

Although the total volume of cargo handled at the port has duplicated over the past decade, various issues in cargo handling are witnessed in the port including absolute shortage of mooring facilities, inadequate staking area, extraordinarily high berth occupancy ratio and mismatch between the length of existing berths and LOA of calling vessels of which dimension has been enlarging. Cargo handling capacity of the port has been saturated with the cargo demand already. Consequently, long waiting time for berthing due to berth occupied by another ship and low productivity in cargo handling take place. Capacity development is an urgent issue to be tackled. Mombasa Port has various advantages in maritime transport, namely long history as an international port, an international gateway function referred by Kenya and other landlocked countries and plenty of direct hinterland which could be developed as industrial area. Mombasa Port shall be developed taking these advantages in to consideration. In this context, facility planning is conducted based on the following stances and two scenarios.  To develop Mombasa Port in the most effective and efficient manner utilizing existing resources and potential of the port.  To maximize cargo handling capacity of the port. Overflowing cargo will be handled in another international port including Lamu Port.  To develop required mooring and other facilities in a timely manner. These required facilities include terminals for MPDP, Dongo Kundu SEZ Project and other necessary projects.  To renew existing berths in Kilindini in series. Passenger facilities including a berth and terminal will be developed.  To introduce more efficient cargo handling equipment to cope with the critical shortage of berths.

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(1) Scenario 1 Major characteristics of scenario 1 are as follows;  Amount of Investment is minimized.  New berths at Dongo Kundu are deep-water multi-purpose terminals for rapidly increasing commodities including vehicle, wheat and container.  Other bulk cargo including clinker and coal are handled at existing berths.  Cargo handling productivity is to increase. In particular, productivities at deep-water terminal in Dongo Kundu are three (3) to four (4) times of existing terminal.  Ship waiting time for berthing remains at current level.  Cargo handling capacity may be saturated with cargo demand at a certain year

Figure 6.2.1 Spatial Utilization Plan (Scenario 1) Source: The Project Team

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(2) Scenario 2 Major characteristics of scenario 2 are as follows;  Amount of Investment is more than Scenario 1  New berths at Dongo Kundu are deep-water multi-purpose terminals for rapidly increasing commodities including vehicle, wheat, container, clinker and coal. A terminal for clinker and coal will commence operation in 2026.  Other bulk cargo is handled at existing berths.  Cargo handling productivity is to increase. In particular, productivities at deep-water terminal in Dongo Kundu are three (3) to four (4) times of existing terminal.  Ship waiting time for berthing remains at current level.  Cargo handling capacity may be saturated with cargo demand at a certain year

Figure 6.2.2 Spatial Utilization Plan (Scenario 2) Source: The Project Team

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6.2.2 Required Mooring Facilities in 2014

Since KPA has the New Oil Terminal Project and is going to implement sooner or later, this analysis is conducted for other cargo except POL (import), Bulk Oil (export) and Bunker Oil (export) (1) Conversion of Cargo Volume from Original Classifications into Major Commodities Since the original port statistics in 2014 contain too many classifications of cargo to analyze, detailed classifications are converted into major commodities including “Motor Vehicle”, “Steel”, “Container”, “Other General Cargo”, “Bulk Wheat”, “Bulk Clinker”, “Bulk Fertilizer”, “Bulk Coal”, “Other Bulk Cargo” and “Other Liquid Bulk”. The conversion method is as follows; a) Import (General Cargo) i. Total Dry General – “Motor Vehicle” – “Steel” = A ii. A x Containerized Ratio = B (Containerized Cargo (Import) (Containerized Ratios are shown in Figure 5.1.4)) iii. A – B = Other General Cargo (Import) b) Export (General Cargo) i. Total Dry General x 0.95 (Containerized Ratio) = Containerized Cargo (Export) ii. Total Dry General x 0.05 = Other general Cargo (Export) c) Total (General Cargo) i. Other General Cargo (Import) + Other General Cargo (Export) = Other General Cargo d) Bulk Cargo i. Total Bulk Cargo – “Bulk Wheat” – “Bulk Clinker” – “Bulk Fertilizer” – “Bulk Coal” = Other Dry Bulk Cargo (2) Result of Conversion Table 6.2.1 shows the conversion results.

Table 6.2.1 Converted Cargo Volume (Dry) in 2014 Cargo Volume Commodity (1,000 ton) Motor Vehicle 463 Steel 1,367 Other general 1,442 Container 7,838 Total (General) 11,110 Bulk Wheat 1,908 Bulk Clinker 2,065 Bulk Fertilizer 360 Bulk Coal 436 Other Bulk 462 Total (Bulk) 5,231 Other Liquid Bulk 900 Total (OLB) 900 Total 17,241 Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(3) Productivity (Cargo Handling Capacity of a Berth) by Major Commodities Table 6.2.2 shows berth productivities per year of major commodities based on Table 6.1.93.

Table 6.2.2 Annual Berth Productivity by Commodity Productivity Commodity Calculation (1,000 ton/year) Motor Vehicle 3,000 ton/day x 363 day x 0.8 (B. O.R.) x 0.85 (Work Ratio) 740 Steel 4,000 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.95 1,100 Other General 900 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.8 210 Capacity of existing five (5) container berths is 900,000 TEU per year. Container 1,350 900,000/5 TEU x 7.7 ton/TEU Bulk Wheat 7,500 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.95 2,070 Bulk Clinker 10,000 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.9 2,620 Bulk Fertilizer 2,500 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.95 690 Bulk Coal 6,500 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.9 1,700 Other Bulk 5,000 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.9 1,310 Other Liquid Bulk 9,000 x 363 x 0.8 x 0.95 2,480 Note: Productivities except container are for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth. Source: KPA and the Project Team

(4) Number of Required Mooring Facilities in 2014 Table 6.2.3 shows the number of required berths in 2014, namely 17.67=>18 berths. As discussed in section 6.1.1, there are officially 18 berths/wharfs in Mombasa Port but that number is misleading as the berths cannot be used effectively due to their inadequate length. Cargo volume has been reaching the port capacity. Accordingly, the following problems have emerged;  Long waiting time for berthing  Extraordinary mixture of various commodities at one mooring facility  Low cargo handling productivity  Traffic congestion in the port area

Table 6.2.3 Number of Required Mooring Facilities in 2014 Productivity 2014

(1,000 ton/berth/year) Volume (1,000 ton) Required Berths Motor Vehicle 740 463 0.63 Steel 1,100 1,367 1.24 Other General Cargo2 210 1,442 6.87 Container 1,390 7,838 5.64 Total (General) 11,110 14.38

Bulk Wheat 2,070 1,908 0.92 Bulk Clinker 2,620 2,065 0.88 Bulk fertilizer 690 360 0.52 Bulk Coal 1,700 436 0.26 Other Bulk Cargo 1,310 462 0.35 Total (Dry Bulk) 5,231 2.93

Other Liquid Bulk 2,480 900 0.36 Total 17,241 17.67

Note: Productivities except container are for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth. Source: KPA and the Project Team

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6.2.3 Cargo Volume in Future

(1) Import Table 6.2.4 shows the result of the demand forecast described in Chapter 5. Average growth rates from 2014 to 2035 by cargo type are as follows;  Total general cargo: 5.6 %  Total dry bulk cargo: 7.1 %  Total liquid bulk cargo: 4.3 %  Total import cargo: 5.6 %

Table 6.2.4 Cargo Volume in Future (Import)

(Import) (x 1,000 tons) 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Iron & Steel 1,192 1,367 1,357 2,067 2,853 3,668 4,397 Rice 465 651 331 316 262 145 0 Sugar 207 231 435 558 688 826 973 Chemicals & Insecticides 254 390 260 260 260 260 260 Plastics 398 662 399 399 399 399 399 M/Vehicles & Lorries 366 463 487 742 1,025 1,318 1,580 Paper and Paper Production 300 503 431 645 881 1,127 1,346 Cereal Flour 41 49 75 75 75 75 75 Fertilizer 80 102 81 81 81 81 81 Maize in Bags 16 37 31 31 31 31 31 Wheat in Bags 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 Others 5,319 4,649 6,075 9,152 12,560 16,095 19,256 Total General Cargo 8,646 9,113 9,971 14,335 19,124 24,034 28,407

Wheat in Bulk 1,401 1,908 1,981 3,088 4,497 6,203 8,063 Clinker 2,228 2,065 2,690 4,436 6,370 8,375 10,169 Fertilizer in Bulk 603 360 579 579 579 829 829 Coal 296 436 396 582 788 1,001 1,192 Other Cereals in Bulk 156 184 106 106 106 106 106 Maize in Bulk 0 0 485 492 471 466 564 Others 229 278 306 459 629 805 962 Total Dry Bulk 4,913 5,231 6,543 9,742 13,440 17,785 21,885

P.O.L. 5,637 6,286 6,757 8,654 10,755 12,933 14,882 Other Liquid Bulk 900 906 995 1,324 1,688 2,065 2,403 Total Liquid Bulk 6,537 7,192 7,752 9,978 12,443 14,998 17,285

Grand Total (Import) 20,096 21,536 24,266 34,055 45,007 56,817 67,577 Source: The Project Team

(2) Export Table 6.2.5 shows the result of the demand forecast described in Chapter 5. Average growth rates from 2014 to 2035 by cargo type are as follows;  Total general cargo: 4.1 %  Total dry bulk cargo: 1.1 %  Total liquid bulk cargo: 4.4 %

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 Total import cargo: 3.7 %

Table 6.2.5 Cargo Volume in Future (Export)

(Export) (x 1,000 tons) 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035 Tea 541 554 522 605 698 811 912 Soda Ash 423 336 355 465 588 737 870 Coffee 264 256 265 313 368 434 493 Others 840 851 965 1,269 1,608 2,022 2,391 Total General Cargo 2,068 1,997 2,107 2,652 3,262 4,004 4,666

Titanium 0 363 450 450 450 450 450 Soda Ash in Bulk 0 0 Cement in Bulk 0 0 Fluorspar 65 59 Other Dry Bulk 0 0 84 84 84 84 84 Total Dry Bulk 65 422 534 534 534 534 534

Bulk Oil 62 19 Bunkers 38 26 Total Liquid Bulk 100 45 112 112 112 112 112

Grand Total (Export) 2,233 2,464 2,753 3,298 3,908 4,650 5,312 Source: The Project Team

(3) Total Table 6.2.6 shows the result of the demand forecast described in Chapter 5. Average growth rate from 2014 to 2035 is 5.4 %.

Table 6.2.6 Cargo Volume in Future (Total) 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035 Total (Import, Export) 22,329 24,000 27,019 37,353 48,915 61,467 72,889 Source: The Project Team

(4) Conversion of Cargo Volume from Original Classifications into Major Commodities Since the original demand forecast contains too many classifications of cargo to analyze, detailed classifications are converted into major commodities including “Motor Vehicle”, “Steel”, “Container 1”, “Container 2”, “Other General Cargo”, “Bulk Wheat”, “Bulk Clinker”, “Bulk Fertilizer”, “Bulk Coal”, “Other Bulk Cargo” and “Other Liquid Bulk”. “Container 1” means containerized cargo handled at existing five berths. Capacity of five berths is fixed and 900,000 TEU a year. “Container 2” means containerized cargo handled at the Second Container Terminal. The conversion method is as follows; a) Import (General Cargo) i. Total Dry General – “Motor Vehicle” – “Steel” = A ii. A x Containerized Ratio = B (Containerized Cargo (Import) (Containerized Ratios are shown in

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Figure 5.1.4)) iii. B – Container 1 = Container 2 iv. where, Container 1 = 720,000 TEU x 9.4 ton/TEU = 6,750,000 ton v. A – B = Other General Cargo (Import) b) Export (General Cargo) i. Total Dry General x 0.95 (Containerized Ratio) = Containerized Cargo (Export) ii. Total Dry General x 0.05 = Other general Cargo (Export) c) Total (General Cargo) i. Other General Cargo (Import) + Other General Cargo (Export) = Other General Cargo d) Bulk Cargo i. Total Bulk Cargo – “Bulk Wheat” – “Bulk Clinker” – “Bulk Fertilizer” – “Bulk Coal” = Other Dry Bulk Cargo (5) Results of Conversion Table 6.2.7 shows the conversion results.

Table 6.2.7 Converted Cargo Volume (x 1,000ton) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Motor Vehicle 487 742 1,025 1,318 1,580 Steel 1,357 2,067 2,853 3,668 4,397 Other General Cargo 1,543 1,814 2,020 2,147 2,153 Container 1 8,691 6,750 6,750 6,750 6,750 Container 2 0 5,613 9,737 14,153 18,193 SUBTOTAL 12,078 16,986 22,385 28,036 33,073 Bulk Wheat 1,981 3,088 4,497 6,203 8,063 Bulk Clinker 2,690 4,436 6,370 8,375 10,169 Bulk Fertilizer 579 579 579 829 829 Bulk Coal 396 582 788 1,001 1,192 Other Bulk Cargo 981 1,141 1,290 1,461 1,716 SUBTOTAL 6,627 9,826 13,524 17,869 21,969 Other Liquid Bulk 995 1,324 1,688 2,065 2,403 SUBTOTAL 995 1,324 1,688 2,065 2,403 TOTAL 19,700 28,136 37,597 47,970 57,445 Note: 1) Volume of “Container 1” in 2015 is 8,691 thousand tons. This volume includes 6,750 tons handled at existing 5 container berths and 1,941 tons handled at other berths. Other berths will not handle any containers in 2016, because MPDP Phase 1 will commence container handling in 2016. 2) The above volume does not include liquid bulk cargo volume. Therefore, the total volume is less than that of in Table 6.2.6. Source: The Project Team

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6.2.4 Productivity in Future

Same productivities are basically applied. The following assumptions are introduced in this analysis.  Productivities except container and other liquid bulk will increase 10 % in 2020 and 2025.  Productivities except container and other liquid bulk will increase 20 % in 2030 and 2035.  Productivity of container will be stable. Since current productivity at the existing berths seems to have almost reached the maximum and that of the second container terminal (MPDP) is expected to be very high, it is not realistic to expect productivities to increase in future.  Productivity of other liquid bulk will increase 20 % in 2020 and 2025.  Productivity of other liquid bulk will increase 40 % in 2030 and 2035. Table 6.2.8 shows productivities in future by commodities.

Table 6.2.8 Productivities in Future by Commodities (1,000ton/berth/year) 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Motor Vehicle 740 740 810 810 890 890 Steel 1,100 1,100 1,210 1,210 1,320 1,320 Other General Cargo 210 210 230 230 250 250 Container 1 1,390 1,390 1,390 1,390 1,390 1,390 Container 2 - - 3,620 3,620 3,620 3,620

Bulk Wheat 2,070 2,070 2,280 2,280 2,480 2,480 Bulk Clinker 2,620 2,620 2,880 2,880 3,140 3,140 Bulk Fertilizer 690 690 760 760 830 830 Bulk Coal 1,700 1,700 1,870 1,870 2,040 2,040 Other Bulk Cargo 1,310 1,310 1,440 1,440 1,570 1,570 Other Liquid Bulk 2,480 2,480 2,980 2,980 3,470 3,470

Source: The Project Team

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6.2.5 Scenario 1

(1) Required Facilities in 2020 under the Scenario 1 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.9 shows the number of facilities required in 2020. Approximately 22 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general.

Table 6.2.9 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2020 Productivity Volume Required 2020 (1,000ton (1,000ton) Berths /berth/year) Motor Vehicle 810 742 0.92 Steel 1,210 2,067 1.71 Other General Cargo 230 1,814 7.89 Container 1 1,390 6,750 4.86 Container 2 3,620 5,613 1.55 Total (General) 16,986 16.93 Bulk Wheat 2,280 3,088 1.35 Bulk Clinker 2,880 4,436 1.54 Bulk Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 Bulk Coal 1,870 582 0.31 Other Bulk Cargo 1,440 1,141 0.79 Total (Dry Bulk) 9,826 4.75 Other liquid Bulk 2,980 1,324 0.44 Total (OLB) 1,324 0.44 Total 28,136 22.12 Note: The number of required berths is for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth. Source: The Project Team b) Cargo Allocation to Existing Berths Table 6.2.10 shows cargo allocation to existing berths including Berth No.20 and 21. The Volume of cargo which existing berth including Berth No.20 and 21 can handle is approximately 25.5 million tons. On the other hand, cargo demand is approximately 28.1 million ton. The difference between capacity and demand is 2.6 million tons. Accordingly, additional mooring facilities are required.

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Table 6.2.10 Cargo Allocation to Existing Berths including Berth No.20 and 21 Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Clinker 2,880 1,440 0.50 Mbaraki Coal 1,870 582 0.31 Other Bulk 1,440 274 0.19 Vehicle 810 742 0.92 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 3 Wheat 2,280 2,280 1.00 Wheat 2,280 808 0.35 4 Other General 230 150 0.65 5 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 Steel 1,210 857 0.71 7 Other General 230 67 0.29 Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 8 Other Bulk 1,440 346 0.24 Clinker 2,880 1,383 0.48 9 Other Bulk 1,440 521 0.36 Other General 230 37 0.16 Clinker 2,880 1,613 0.56 10 Other Liquid Bulk 2,980 1,324 0.44 11 Other General 230 230 1.00 12 Other General 230 230 1.00 13 Other General 230 230 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 17 Container 1,390 6,950 5.00 18 Container (900,000TEU) 19 Container 20 Container 3,620 3,620 1.00 21 Container (562,000TEU) TOTAL 25,473 18.00 Source: The Project Team c) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.11 shows cargo allocation to berths including additional mooring facilities, namely Berth No.22 and 4 berths for general cargo at current lighter area.

Table 6.2.11 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities (2020) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 230 870 3.78 (L=720m, -10.0m) Clinker 2,880 1,440 0.50 Mbaraki Coal 1,870 582 0.31 Other Bulk 1,440 274 0.19 Vehicle 810 742 0.92 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 3 Wheat 2,280 2,280 1.00 4 Wheat 2,280 808 0.35

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Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Other General 230 150 0.65 5 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 Steel 1,210 857 0.71 7 Other General 230 67 0.29 Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 8 Other Bulk 1,440 346 0.24 Clinker 2,880 1,383 0.48 9 Other Bulk 1,440 521 0.36 Other General 230 37 0.16 Other Liquid Bulk 2,980 1,324 0.44 10 Clinker 2,880 1,613 0.56 11 Other General 230 230 1.00 12 Other General 230 230 1.00 13 Other General 230 230 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 5,413 21 Container 3,620 1.50 (841,000TEU) 22 Container TOTAL 28,136 22.29 Source: The Project Team d) Layout Plan in 2020 Figure 6.2.3 shows the layout plan of facilities in 2020.

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Figure 6.2.3 Layout Plan in 2020 Source: The Project Team

(2) Required Facilities in 2025 under the Scenario 1 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.12 shows the number of facilities required in 2025. Approximately 27 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general.

Table 6.2.12 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2025 Productivity Volume 2025 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 810 1,025 1.26 Steel 1,210 2,853 2.36 Other General Cargo 231 2,020 8.75 Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 9,537 2.63 Total (General) 22,385 20.00 Bulk Wheat 2,280 4,497 1.97 Bulk Clinker 2,880 6,370 2.21 Bulk Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 Bulk Coal 1,870 788 0.42 Other Bulk Cargo 1,440 1,290 0.90 Total (Dry Bulk) 13,524 6.27 Other Liquid Bulk 2,980 1,688 0.57 Total (OLB) 1,688 0.57 Total 37,597 26.84 Note: The number of required berths is for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth. Source: The Project Team

6-52 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.13 shows cargo allocation to berths including additional mooring facilities, namely Berth No.23 and 2 multi-purpose berths at the Dongo Kundu area.

Table 6.2.13 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities (2025) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 230 878 3.82 (L=720m, -10.0m) Clinker 2,880 1,440 0.50 Mbaraki Coal 1,870 468 0.25 Other Bulk 1,440 360 0.25 Other General 230 212 0.92 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 Steel 1210 433 0.36 3 Other Bulk 1,440 829 0.58 Other General 230 14 0.06 4 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 5 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 7 Other Bulk 1,440 101 0.07 Coal 1,870 320 0.17 Clinker 2,880 812 0.28 8 Other General 230 166 0.72 9 Clinker 2,880 2,880 1.00 Other Liquid Bulk 2,980 1,688 0.57 10 Clinker 2,880 1,238 0.43 11 Other General 230 230 1.00 12 Other General 230 230 1.00 13 Other General 230 230 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 9,537 3,620 2.63 22 Container (1,512,000TEU) 23 Container Dongo Kundo 1 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,025 0.46 Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 8,000 4,497 0.56 TOTAL 37,597 24.48 Note: Since new berths at Dongo Kundu area are deep-water facilities, productivities of these deep-water quays are three to four times of current level. Source: The Project Team c) Layout Plan in 2025 Figure 6.2.4 shows the layout plan of facilities in 2025. Based on the analysis, a new terminal at Dongo Kundu (D1) should commence operation in 2022. Another terminal at Dongo Kundu (D2) and MPDP Phase 3 (Berth No. 23) should commence operation in 2023. Figure 6.2.5 shows the layout plan in 2022. The layout plan in 2023 is as same as in 2025.

6-53 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Figure 6.2.4 Layout Plan in 2025 Source: The Project Team

Figure 6.2.5 Layout Plan in 2022 Source: Project Team

6-54 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

(3) Required Facilities in 2030 under the Scenario 1 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.14 shows the number of facilities required in 2030. Approximately 30 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general.

Table 6.2.14 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2030 Productivity Volume 2030 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 890 1,318 1.48 Steel 1,320 3,668 2.78 Other General Cargo 250 2,147 8.52 Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 13,953 3.85 Total (General) 28,036 21.64 Bulk Wheat 2,480 6,203 2.50 Bulk Clinker 2,820 8,375 2.97 Bulk Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 Bulk Coal 2,040 1,001 0.49 Other Bulk Cargo 1,570 1,461 0.93 Total (Dry Bulk) 17,869 7.89 Total 45,905 29.52 Note: The number of required berths is for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth Source: The Project Team b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.15 shows cargo allocation to berths including an additional mooring facility, namely Berth No.24.

Table 6.2.15 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities (2030) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 250 1,000 4.00 (L=720m, -10.0m) Mbaraki Clinker 3,140 3,140 1.00 Other General 250 230 0.92 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 3 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 4 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 Coal 2,040 1,001 0.49 5 Other Bulk 1,570 315 0.20 Other general 250 78 0.31 7 Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 Clinker 3,140 839 0.27 8 Other Bulk 1,570 1,146 0.73 9 Clinker 3,140 3,140 1.00 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,064 0.60 10 Clinker 3,140 1,256 0.40 11 Other General 250 250 1.00 12 Other General 250 250 1.00 13 Other General 250 250 1.00

6-55 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 13,953 22 Container 3,620 3.85 (2,231,000TEU) 23 Container 24 Container Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,318 0.59 Dongo Kundo 3 Multi-purpose 8,000 6,203 0.78 TOTAL 47,970 26.21 Source: The Project Team

Cargo demand in 2030 will reach to 45.9 million tons and cargo-handling capacity will be 45.7 million tons. This means that even if all facilities described in the Table 6.2.11 will be completed in 2030, Mombasa port will not be able to handle approximately 0.2 million tons of cargo. c) Layout Plan in 2030 Figure 6.2.6 shows the layout plan of facilities in 2030.

Figure 6.2.6 Layout Plan in 2030 Source: The Project Team

Based on the analysis, MPDP Phase 4 (Berth No. 24) should commence operation in 2028. Figure 6.2.7 shows the layout plan in 2028 which is almost same as in 2030.

6-56 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Figure 6.2.7 Layout Plan in 2028 Source: project Team

(4) Required Facilities in 2035 under the Scenario 1 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.16 shows the number of facilities required in 2035. Approximately 34 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general.

Table 6.2.16 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2035 Productivity Volume 2035 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 890 1,580 1.78 Steel 1,320 4,397 3.33 Other General Cargo 250 2,153 8.54 Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 17,993 4.97 Total (General) 33,073 23.62 Bulk Wheat 2,480 8,063 3.25 Bulk Clinker 3,140 10,169 3.23 Bulk Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 Bulk Coal 2,040 1,192 0.58 Other Bulk Cargo 1,570 1,716 1.09 Total (Dry Bulk) 21,969 9.15 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,403 0.69 Total (OLB) 2,403 0.69 Total 57,445 33.46 Note: The number of required berths is for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth Source: The Project Team

6-57 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.17 shows cargo allocation to berths including additional mooring facilities, namely Berth No.25 and a passenger terminal at current lighter area.

Table 6.2.17 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities (2035) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 250 1,000 4.00 (L=720m, -10.0m) Mbaraki Clinker 3,140 3,140 1.00 1,2 Other General 250 250 1.00 3 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 4 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 Coal 2,040 1,192 0.58 5 Other Bulk 1,570 660 0.42 7 Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 Clinker 3,140 2,916 0.93 8 Other Bulk 1,570 110 0.07 9 Clinker 3,140 3,140 1.00 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,403 0.69 10 Clinker 3,140 973 0.31 11 Other General 250 250 1.00 12 Other General 250 250 1.00 13 Other General 250 250 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 22 Container 17,993 3,620 4.97 23 Container (2,889,000TEU) 24 Container 25 Container Dongo Kundo 1 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,585 0.71 Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 8,000 8,063 1.01 Passenger Terminal Passenger 1.00 TOTAL 57,445 28.70 Source: The Project Team

Cargo demand in 2035 will reach to 57.4 million tons while cargo handling capacity will be 54.6 million tons. This means that even if facilities described in the Table 6.2.17 are available in 2035, Mombasa Port will not able to handle approximately 2.9 million tons of cargo. c) Layout Plan in 2035 Figure 6.2.8 show the layout plans of facilities in 2035. Based on the analysis, MPDP Phase 5 (Berth No. 25) should commence operation in 2032. Figure 6.2.9 shows the layout plan in 2032 as same as in 2030.

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Figure 6.2.8 Layout Plan in 2035 Source: The Project Team

Figure 6.2.9 Layout Plan in 2032 Source: The Project Team

6-59 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

(5) Required actions for Mombasa Port development under the Scenario 1 a) Number of Newly Required Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.18 shows the number of newly required facilities in the Master Plan under the Scenario 1.

Table 6.2.18 Number of Newly Required Facilities in Master Plan Year Cargo Dimension Productivity* Location No. of Berths Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz (21/22) 2 to 2020 Container 210m x -10m 1.0 Reitz (20) 1 Other General 180m x -10m 1.1, 1.2 Lighter Area 4 Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz (23) 1 from 2021 Multi-purpose 300m x -14m 3.0 – 4.0 Dongo Kundu (D1) 1 to 2025 Multi-purpose 300m x -14m 3.0 – 4.0 Dongo Kundu (D2) 1 from 2026 Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz (24) 1 to 2030 from 2031 Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz (25) 1 to 2035 Passenger Terminal 350m x -11m Lighter Area 1 Note*: = Productivity of New Facility/Current Productivity Source: The Project Team b) Other Improvement Work on Existing Facilities Table 6.2.19 shows other improvement work on existing facilities in the Master Plan

Table 6.2.19 Other Improvement Work on Existing Facilities in the Master Plan Year Cargo Location Improvement Work * Structural Improvement of Jetty to Increase Bulk Mbaraki Productivity * Introduction of Additional Unloaders * Extension of Quay-wall Length (200m) (Relocation of existingoil jetty should be done at to 2020 Container Berth No. 19 first.) * Introduction of New STS Gantry Cranes and Other Equipment * Deepening Quay-wall Depth (-10m to -12m) (4 Berth No. 11 to Various Cargo Berths to 3 Berths) 14 * Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement Berth No. 1, 2, 4, Vehicle/Steel/Other * Introduction of Additional Unloader to Increase 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 General Cargo Productivity and 13 to 2020/ 2025 Wheat, Clinker, Berth No. 3,4,8,9 * Introduction of Additional Unloader to Increase Coal and Other and 10 Productivity Bulk cargo * Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement (Urgent) Berth No. 1 to 10 From 2020 to * Clearance of Existing Transit Sheds Various Cargo 2035 Berth No. 16 to * Rehabilitation of Quay-wall and Pavement 18 Source: The Project Team

6-60 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

6.2.6 Scenario 2

(1) Required Facilities in 2026 under the Scenario 2 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.20 shows the number of required facilities in 2026. Approximately 28 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general.

Table 6.2.20 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2026 Productivity Volume 2026 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 810 1,079 1.33 Steel 1,210 3,004 2.48 Other General Cargo 230 2,045 8.85 Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 10,351 2.86 Total (General) 23,429 20.52 Bulk Wheat 2,280 4,838 2.12 Bulk Clinker 2,880 6,740 2.34 Bulk Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 Bulk Coal 1,870 872 0.44 Other Bulk Cargo 1,440 1,321 0.92 Total (Dry Bulk) 14,305 6.58 Other Liquid Bulk 2,980 1,757 0.59 Total (OLB) 1,757 0.59 Total 39,491 27.69 Note: The number of required berths is for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth Source: The Project Team b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.21 shows cargo allocation to berths including an additional mooring facility, namely Dongo Kundu 3 (D3).

Table 6.2.21 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Facilities (2026) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 230 920 4.00 (L=720m, -10.0m) Mbaraki Other Bulk 1,440 1,321 0.92 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 3 Other general 230 230 1.00 4 Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 5 Steel 1,210 584 0.48 7 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 8 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 9 Other General 230 205 0.89 10 Other Liquid Bulk 2980 1,757 0.59 11 Other General 230 230 1.00 12 Other General 230 230 1.00 13 Other General 230 230 1.00 14 Container 6,950 1,390 5.00 16 Container (900,000 TEU)

6-61 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth 17 Container 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 10,351 3,620 2.86 22 Container (1,645,000 TEU) 23 Container Dongo Kundo 1 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,079 0.49 Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 8,000 4,838 0.60 8,000 6,740 0.84 Dongo Kundu 3 Multi-purpose 5,100 827 0.16 TOTAL 39,491 23.68 Source: The Project Team c) Layout Plan in 2026 Figure 6.2.10 shows the layout plan of facilities in 2026.

Figure 6.2.10 Layout plan in 2026 Source: The Project Team

(2) Required Facilities in 2028 under the Scenario 2 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.22 shows the number of required facilities in 2028. Approximately 30 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general

6-62 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Table 6.2.22 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2028 Productivity Volume 2028 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 810 1,194 1.47 Steel 1,210 3,323 2.75 Other General Cargo 230 2,096 9.07 Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 12,079 3.34 Total (General) 25,642 21.62 Bulk Wheat 2,280 5,521 2.42 Bulk Clinker 2,880 7,526 2.61 Bulk Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 Bulk Coal 1,870 911 0.49 Other Bulk Cargo 1,440 1,388 0.96 Total (Dry Bulk) 15,925 7.25 Other Liquid Bulk 2,980 1,905 0.64 Total (OLB) 1,905 0.64 Total 43,472 29.51 Note: The number of required berths is for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth Source: The Project Team b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.23 shows cargo allocation to berths including an additional mooring facility, namely Dongo Kundu 4 (D4).

Table 6.2.23 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Facilities (2028) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 230 920 4.00 (L=720m, -10.0m) Mbaraki Other Bulk 1,440 1,383 0.96 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 3 Other General 230 26 0.11 Fertilizer 760 579 0.76 4 Other General 230 26 0.11 5 Steel 1,210 903 0.75 7 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 8 Steel 1,210 1,210 1.00 9 Other General 230 230 1.00 10 Other Liquid Bulk 2,980 1,905 0.64 11 Other General 230 230 1.00 12 Other General 230 230 1.00 13 Other General 230 230 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000 TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 12,079 22 Container 3,620 3.34 (1,926,000 TEU) 23 Container 24 Container Dongo Kundo 1 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,194 0.54

6-63 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 8,000 5,251 0.69 8,000 6,565 0.82 Dongo Kundu 3 Multi-purpose 5,100 911 0.18 Dongo Kundu 4 Multi-purpose 8,000 961 0.12 TOTAL 43,472 24.99 Source: The Project Team c) Layout Plan in 2028 Figure 6.2.11 shows the layout plan of facilities in 2028.

Figure 6.2.11 Layout Plan in 2028 Source: The Project Team

(3) Required Facilities in 2030 under the Scenario 2 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.24 shows the number of required facilities in 2030. Approximately 30 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general.

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Table 6.2.24 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2030 Productivity Volume 2030 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 890 1,313 1.48 Steel 1,320 3,668 2.78 Other General Cargo 250 2,147 8.52 Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 13,953 3.85 Total (General) 28,036 21.64 Bulk Wheat 2,480 6,203 2.50 Bulk Clinker 3,140 8,375 2.66 Bulk Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 Bulk Coal 2,040 1,001 0.49 Other Bulk Cargo 1,570 1,461 0.93 Total (Dry Bulk) 17,869 7.58 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,065 0.59 Total (OLB) 2,065 0.59 Total 47,970 29.82 Note: The number of required berths is for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth Source: The Project Team b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.25 shows cargo allocation to berths including an additional mooring facility, namely Dongo Kundu 4 (D4).

Table 6.2.25 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Facilities (2030) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 250 1,000 4.00 (L=720m, -10.0m) Mbaraki Other Bulk 1,570 1,461 0.93 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 3 Other General 250 250 1.00 4 Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 5 Steel 1,320 1,028 0.78 7 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 8 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 9 Other General 250 147 0.59 10 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,065 0.60 11 Other General 250 250 1.00 12 Other General 250 250 1.00 13 Other General 250 250 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000 TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 13,953 22 Container 3,620 3.85 (2,231,000 TEU) 23 Container 24 Container Dongo Kundo 1 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,318 0.59 Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 8,000 6,203 0.78

6-65 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth 8,000 6,400 0.80 Dongo Kundu 3 Multi-purpose 5,100 1,001 0.20 Dongo Kundu 4 Multi-purpose 8,000 1,975 0.25 TOTAL 47,970 25.44 Source: The Project Team c) Layout Plan in 2030 Figure 6.2.12 shows the layout plan of facilities 2030.

Figure 6.2.12 Layout plan in 2030 Source: The Project Team

(4) Required Facilities in 2032 under the Scenario 2 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.26 shows the number of required facilities in 2032. Approximately 31 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general

Table 6.2.26 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2032 Productivity Volume 2032 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 890 1,418 1.60 Steel 1,320 3,947 2.99 Other General Cargo 250 2,147 8.52

6-66 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Productivity Volume 2032 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 15,471 4.27 Total (General) 29,933 22.38 Bulk Wheat 2,480 6,947 2.80 Bulk Clinker 3,140 9,061 2.88 Bulk Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 Bulk Coal 2,040 1,074 0.53 Other Bulk Cargo 1,570 1,560 0.99 Total (Dry Bulk) 19,471 8.20 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,194 0.63 Total (OLB) 2,194 0.63 Total 51,598 31.21 Source: The Project Team b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.27 shows cargo allocation to berths including an additional mooring facility, namely Dongo Kundu 4 (D4).

Table 6.2.27 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Facilities (2032) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 250 1,000 4.00 (L=720m, -10.0m) Mbaraki Other Bulk 1,570 1,560 0.99 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 3 Other general 250 250 1.00 4 Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 5 Steel 1,320 1,307 0.99 7 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 8 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 9 Other General 250 147 0.59 10 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,194 0.63 11 Other General 250 250 1.00 12 Other General 250 250 1.00 13 Other General 250 250 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000 TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 22 Container 15,471 3,620 4.27 23 Container (2,482,000 TEU) 24 Container 25 Container Dongo Kundo 1 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,418 0.64 Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 8,000 6,947 0.87 8,000 6,320 0.79 Dongo Kundu 3 Multi-purpose 5,100 1,074 0.21 Dongo Kundu 4 Multi-purpose 8,000 2,741 0.34 TOTAL 51,598 26.41 Source: The Project Team

6-67 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area c) Layout Plan in 2032 Figure 6.2.13 shows the layout plan of facilities 2032.

Figure 6.2.13 Layout Plan in 2032 Source: The Project Team

(5) Required Facilities in 2035 under the Scenario 2 a) Number of Required Facilities Table 6.2.28 shows the number of required facilities in 2035. Approximately 34 ordinary existing berths with 180m length and -10m depth will be required. This figure represents the magnitude of berth shortage in general

Table 6.2.28 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2035 Productivity Volume 2035 Required Berths (1,000ton/berth/year) (1,000ton) Motor Vehicle 890 1,580 1.78 Steel 1,320 4,397 3.33 Other General Cargo 250 2,153 8.54 Container 1 1,390 6,950 5.00 Container 2 3,620 17,993 4.97 Total (General) 33,073 23.62 Bulk Wheat 2,480 8,063 3.25 Bulk Clinker 3,140 10,169 3.23 Bulk Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 Bulk Coal 2,040 1,192 0.58 Other Bulk Cargo 1,570 1,716 1.09 Total (Dry Bulk) 21,969 9.16

6-68 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area

Other Liquid Bilk 3,470 2,403 0.69 Total (OLB) 2,403 0.69 Total 57,445 33.47 Source: The Project Team b) Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.29 shows cargo allocation to berths including an additional mooring facility, namely Dongo Kundu 4 (D4).

Table 6.2.29 Cargo Allocation to Berths including Additional Facilities (2035) Required Berth No. Cargo Capacity Volume Berth Lighter Area Other General 250 1,000 4.00 (L=720m, -10.0m) Mbaraki Other Bulk 1,570 1,716 1.09 1,2 Passenger V. 0.08 Steel 1,320 437 0.33 3 Other General 250 166 0.67 4 Fertilizer 830 829 1.00 5 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 7 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 8 Steel 1,320 1,320 1.00 9 Other General 250 235 0.94 10 Other Liquid Bulk 3,470 2,403 0.69 11 Other General 250 250 1.00 12 Other General 250 250 1.00 13 Other General 250 250 1.00 14 Container 16 Container 6,950 17 Container 1,390 5.00 (900,000 TEU) 18 Container 19 Container 20 Container 21 Container 22 Container 17,993 3,620 4.97 23 Container (2,889,000 TEU) 24 Container 25 Container Dongo Kundo 1 Multi-purpose 2,220 1,580 0.71 Dongo Kundo 2 Multi-purpose 8,000 8,063 1.01 8,000 6,160 0.77 Dongo Kundu 3 Multi-purpose 5,100 1,192 0.23 Dongo Kundu 4 Multi-purpose 8,000 4,009 0.50 TOTAL 57,445 28.00 Source: The Project Team

6-69 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area c) Layout Plan in 2035 Figure 6.2.14 shows the layout plan of facilities 2035.

Figure 6.2.14 Layout Plan in 2035 Source: The Project Team

(6) Required Actions for Mombasa Port Development under the Scenario 2 a) Number of Newly Required Mooring Facilities Table 6.2.30 shows the number of newly required facilities in the Master Plan under the scenario 2.

Table 6.2.30 Number of Newly Required Facilities in Master Plan Year Cargo Dimension Productivity* Location No. of Berths Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz (21/22) 2 to 2020 Container 210m x -10m 1.0 Reitz (20) 1 Other General 180m x -10m 1.1, 1.2 Lighter Area 4 Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz (23) 1 Dongo Kundu from 2021 Multi-purpose 300m x -14m 3.0 – 4.0 1 (D1) to 2025 Dongo Kundu Multi-purpose 300m x -14m 3.0 – 4.0 1 (D2) Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz (24) 1 from 2026 Dongo Kundu to 2030 Multi-purpose 300m x -14m 3.0 – 4.0 2 (D3/D4) from 2031 Container 300m x -15m 1.0 Reitz- (25) 1 to 2035 Note*: Productivity of New Facility/Current Productivity Source: The Project Team

6-70 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area b) Other Improvement Work on Existing Facilities Table 6.2.31 shows other improvement work on existing facilities in the Master Plan.

Table 6.2.31 Other Improvement Work on Existing Facilities in the Master Plan Year Cargo Location Improvement Work * Structural Improvement of Jetty to Increase Bulk Mbaraki Productivity * Introduction of Additional Unloaders * Extension of Quay-wall Length (200m) (Relocation of existingoil jetty should be done at to 2020 Container Berth No. 19 first.) * Introduction of New STS Gantry Cranes and Other Equipment * Deepening Quay-wall Depth (-10m to -12m) (4 Berth No. 11 to Various Cargo Berths to 3 Berths) 14 * Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement Berth No. 1, 2, 4, Vehicle/Steel/Other * Introduction of Additional Unloader to Increase 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 General Cargo Productivity and 13 to 2020/ 2025 Wheat, Clinker, Berth No. 3,4,8,9 * Introduction of Additional Unloader to Increase Coal and Other and 10 Productivity Bulk cargo * Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement (Urgent) Berth No. 1 to 10 From 2020 to * Clearance of Existing Transit Sheds Various Cargo 2035 Berth No. 16 to * Rehabilitation of Quay-wall and Pavement 18 Source: The Project Team

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6.3 ICD and Rail Access to the Port

6.3.1 Current MGR system in Mombasa Port

As the region's oldest socio-economic binding asset, Rift Valley Railways currently operates a total of 2541.44 kilometers of track network linking the shores of the Indian Ocean to the agriculturally rich hinterland of the Kenya Highlands and into Kampala, Uganda on the shores of Lake Victoria in a 25-year concession agreement originally signed in 2006. The rail tracks within the port boundary are owned and maintained by KPA. All the rail tracks in the Port are meter gauge and the operation of the railway within the port is the responsibility of the Rift Valley Railways Kenya (RVRK). The decision on where the rail wagons shall be loaded or discharged is taken by KPA. However, the service provided by the railways is reported to have deteriorated since privatization. One of the problems is the haulage capacity of the locomotives. The main wagon marshalling yard within the port is behind Berths 11 and 12. The number of tracks there has been reduced from 12 to 8 after negotiations between KPA and RVRK. “Down” trains arrive and terminate in this marshalling yard and are divided into sections, depending on the berth destination of the cargoes. Oil wagons are marshaled in the yard behind Berths 9 and 10. However, due to the steep gradient up to the oil tank farms behind the port, oil wagons for these trains can be hauled up or down only four wagons at a time, increasing the time required to prepare a train for departure. All the berths have two or more rail tracks, except for the container terminal, but all these are in poor condition and are now seldom used. In the meantime, there is an extensive network of tracks behind Berths 1 to 5 and it would be possible to effectively use those tracks to improve the area that can be used for container stacking. The tracks of the yard behind Berths Nos. 2 -6 are also used for loading and unloading of containers. MGR is now seldom used but occupies much space of Mombasa port. There is no policy and strategy for railway use of MGR and SGR. MGR should be removed and transformed road or yard.

Figure 6.3.1 Location of Existing Mombasa Port Facilities Railway Access

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Messina’s Containers on Wagon Main Wagon Marshalling behind Berth 11

Figure 6.3.2 Railway Operation (source JICA study team)

6.3.2 Current status of KPA’s ICDs

This is a citation from Web site from KPA and NTTCA (Northern Corridor Transit Transport Coordination Authority) Kenya Ports Authority owns and operates two Inland Container Depots (ICDs) in Nairobi and Kisumu. These dry ports are linked by rail with Mombasa Port and provide shippers with ‘dry port’ facilities. The major objectives of the ICDs is to bring port services closer to shippers in the hinterland through specialized rail-tainer service as well as decongesting the port of Mombasa. The ICDs were established to realize maximum benefits of containerization of cargo, which is the current trend, and to avoid over-investment in port facilities and storage capacity. The ICDs serve as "Dry Ports" linked directly to Mombasa Container Terminal by a special regular "Rail-tainer" service. (1) ICD Nairobi The Inland Container Depot Embakasi (ICDE) is located in Industrial Area opposite General Motors, off Mombasa road. The facility occupies 29 hectares of land and has a stacking area designed to accommodate a throughput of over 180,000 Twenty Equivalent Units (TEUs) per annum. There are two railway sidings into the facility which enables the off-loading of two rail-tainers simultaneously. Before there were 2 return services between Mombasa and Nairobi. Currently, the service is reduced 1 return a day.

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Figure 6.3.3 ICD Nairobi (Source; NTTCA)

Table 6.3.1 Nairobi ICD Traffic (TEU) source KPA statistics in 2014

(2) ICD Kisumu The Inland Container Depot Kisumu (ICDK) is located in Kibos in Western Kenya on the shores of Lake Victoria along the Kibos road in Kondele. The facility is linked to the Port of Mombasa by railtainer service. It occupies 17.5 hectares of land with a stacking area designed to accommodate a throughput of 15,000 TEUs per annum.

Table 6.3.2 KISUMU ICD Traffic (source; KPA statistics 2014)

(3) Services offered  Both facilities have the capacity to handle;  Both containerized and loose cargo  Stripping and stuffing of containers  Consolidation, storage of full containers and loose export cargo  Storage of empty containers  Hire of labor and equipment  Weighing of containers  Special services e.g. cleaning of containers  Cargo documentation finalized at ICDs  Leasing of slots to shipping lines on request

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(4) Benefits  Secure transport for shippers  Port services are brought closer to customers  Through Bill of Lading (TBL) by rail containers’ dwell time at the port is significantly reduced.  Security and safety of cargo both on rail and at the depot is assured  Importers are allowed 12 days free storage  Exporters are allowed 15 days free storage for consolidation and nomination of vessels  Exporters responsibility ends when cargo is handed in at the ICD  Importers responsibility begins when cargo is railed into the ICD  ICDs provide one stop shop services  Trained and dedicated work force  The ICDs operates on a 24hour schedule

6.3.3 Advanced rail and ICD systems in Thailand

This is citation from ‘the geography of transportation systems’ (Jean-Paul Rodrigue 2013). The metropolitan area of Bangkok, with a population of 12 million, is the largest city in Thailand and among the world's largest agglomerations. It represents an important manufacturing and consumption center. However, Bangkok is located more than 100 km away from its main port facilities of Laem Chabang. By the early 1990s container traffic was booming and containers carried to and from the port terminal facilities were starting to have a serious impact on congestion; Bangkok ranks among the world's most congested cities. The development of an inland container depot acting as a satellite terminal to the port of Laem Chabang became an attractive value proposition. In 1993 land was purchased by the State Railway of Thailand and construction of the facility began at a site about 30 km from downtown Bangkok, including the setting of a collocated rail terminal. The 200 acres Lat Krabang Inland Container Depot (LICD) was completed in 1995 and started its operations in 1996 with a design capacity of 400,000 TEU per year. It also acts as a custom clearance facility as government agencies (customs, inspection, and quarantine) are on site. The publically owned facility is designed around the concession governance model where six modules (A to F) are leased over a 10 year period to tenants, mostly maritime shipping companies (Evergreen, Hanjin, NYK are tenants). LICD was a success and traffic surged from 291,000 TEU in 1997 to 1,669,000 TEU in 2007, well above its design capacity. 75% of the containers arrive at the facility by road and 25% by rail. A logistic zone was built in collocation to perform consolidation and deconsolidation of container loads. Chassis storage facilities are also present in the vicinity. LICD thus represents a fully mature inland terminal facility working close to capacity, but having room for expansion.

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Rail to Leamchabang port→

Figure 6.3.4 Lakrabang ICD in Thailand Source; the geography of transportation systems

6.3.4 Recent movement of the SGR Project in Kenya

The Mombasa - Nairobi Standard Gauge railway project is a Ksh.380 Billion, 3 year railway project that will deliver the construction of a modern standard gauge railway track from the port city of Mombasa up to the capital, Nairobi. Contracted to China Road and Bridge Corporation, a subsidiary of China Communications Construction Company, the railway line will be constructed to China Railway Standards. This will open to traffic in 2017.

Figure 6.3.5 An aerial view of Standard Gauge Railway Bridge under constructionin Mbololo station, in Taita Taveta County, source; KRC

The Government also plans to set up many industrial parks along the route of the SGR. Already, the Ministry of Industrialization has identified land for setting up industrial parks in Mariakani, Voi, Naivasha, Athi River and Emali. The SGR project is expected to reduce rail transport costs from $0.20 to $0.08 per ton per kilometer. This cost saving is generated by use of block trains with economies of large scale compared to narrow

6-76 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 6.Mombasa Port Development Plan Including Dongo Kundu Area gauge and road transport. As a part of the logistics chain, SGR efficiency will practically be measured by its users based on time, cost and place benefits. From a user perspective, following are some of the main expectations and concerns that will determine public perception of the SGR project success: Timeliness of the project completion and commissioning, enabling earliest use of this high capital investment. Competitive logistics demands speed and timeliness on the entire chain with seamless interchanges. State of the art modern cargo handling equipment should be in place at all railroad interchange points to ensure seamless transfer from one mode of transport to another. Of course, SGR should have ICD in Nairobi.

6.3.5 The SGR development and the new container terminal

The JICA Team on the Mombasa Port Mater Plan did the interviews to authorities concerned of Kenya on the SGR development in Mombasa area. The team found some issues to be solved among SGR development and other projects on going. Those should be solved by the initiative of MOTI. SGR comes into a Mombasa port area along with the alignment of bypass highway being planned by JICA. The first issue is that SGR alignment overlaps with the right of way for access road of a phase 2 container terminal under construction. Coordination between the projects is strongly required to have a practical solution.

Figure 6.3.6 SGR Alignment and Access Road of New Container Terminal

The second problem is that SGR will have a surface crossing with the access road of the new container terminal. Those train moves suffer the smooth traffic of containerships trailers to / from a new container terminal. In other words, the smooth operations of the new container terminal will be choked by this surface crossing. When container terminals will expand to the west, other additional access roads will be definitely necessary. The photo below is the example of Leam Chabang Port in Thailand. Long trains block container trailer movement 34 times a day.

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Figure 6.3.7 Train and Trailers in Leam Chabang Port in Thailand

6.3.6 Harmonization of road and railway

Currently, container transportation by railway is less than 3%. China will supply the initial rolling stock comprising 56 diesel locomotives, 1,620 wagons and 40 coaches. If the availability ratio of wagons is assumed to be 50%, and one wagon carries 4 TEU containers, annual transport volume by train becomes 1183,000 TEU. Container demand in 2035 will be 3789,000 TEU. Therefore, transport ratio by rail will be 31%. In the case of 2 TEU in one wagon, its ratio will decrease to 16%. In addition, container cargo volume which is transit to landlocked countries is 104,500 TEU (3% in total) in 2035. Container logistics is always carried out based on the concept of just in time. Cargo owners who prefer to use railway are in the minority. This means that road transportation is main player for container while rail transportation is a side player. Road access development to the port should be prioritized.

6.3.7 Basic direction for improvement of traffic flow inside and outside of the port

Now in Mombasa Port, cargo transported by rail is less than 3% (around 40,000TEU). After the completion of SGR, that ratio might be more than 30% in the maximum (around 130,000 TEU in 2035). Even advanced case in Thailand, the ratio is still 25%. This means that railway transportation is side player. Just in time logistics requires quick delivery door to door. Road transportation inside/outside should be prioritized. Of course, railway transport contributes to the regional economic development.  To remove MRG inside port and widen the road and yard space  To improve the gate system of Mombasa Port and introduce Booking system  To increase the number of gates exclusive for containers  To develop track marshaling yard near new container berths  To increase the number of X-ray facility (Now only one unit)  To improve direct bypass access from/to port  Not to attract SGR to dock side.

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7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

7.1 Economic and financial analysis

7.1.1 Estimation of the investment amount (1) Construction Works The new berth construction works for the Mombasa Port development including the Dongo Kundu area will be divided into the following major work items.  General Requirement (Mobilization/Demobilization, Preparation)  Dredging  Reclamation  Revetments  Berths (Multipurpose)  Soil Improvement  Pavement  Utility Works  Building Works In addition to the construction of the new berths, the existing facilities and cargo handling equipment of Mombasa Port need to be upgraded or improved in order to meet the future cargo demand. Furthermore, each cargo will be allocated to the designated berths to increase the productivity of the cargo handling system. a) General Requirement Various types of construction equipment, working vessels and plant will be mobilized for construction works. Such construction equipment, working vessels and plant will include dredgers, flat barges, bottom open barges, crane barges, pile driving barge, tug boats, anchor boats, survey boats, crawler cranes, excavators, bulldozers, trucks, motor graders, tandem rollers, forklifts, generators, etc. to be used for both permanent and temporary works and various surveys. Insurance will be secured prior to the mobilization. After the completion of the construction works, such construction equipment, working vessels and plant must be demobilized to the origins. b) Dredging Dredging was carried out in 2011 and 2012 by KPA’s own fund to deepen the existing channel and basin for the succeeding Phase 2 and Phase 3 development of the Second Container Terminal up-to the depths of -15.0 m and -12.5 m, respectively. Soft material was dredged with a trailer suction hopper dredger and the dredged material was disposed of at the designated offshore area while suitable material for reclamation was utilized for the Second Container Terminal area. A cutter suction pump dredger was deployed for dredging hard material. When port facilities are constructed at the Dongo Kundu area, dredging of the approach channel and turning basin will be required to secure sufficient water depths for vessels that are expected to call at the new berths. As a result of cargo allocation for future Mombasa Port, the types of vessels include pure car carriers (PCC), bulkers, general cargo ships, and possibly semi-containerships. Considering the present and future trend of the target ship sizes, the new berths at the Dongo Kundu area should have a water depth of -14.0 meters. New berth construction at the Dongo Kundu area is expected to be developed from the eastern area toward the western direction. In this connection, dredging will be conducted in phases in accordance with the port development of Dongo Kundu. The turning basin will be a circle with a diameter of 600 meters, which is equal to two times the design vessel as shown in Figure 7.1.1. Exact dredging areas

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Figure 7.1.1 Dredging for Dongo Kudu Terminals Source: JICA Team

Subject to the characteristics of soils to be dredged, the type of dredger will be determined. According to the previous geotechnical investigations, the seabed material is soft in the Port Reitz area and therefore a suction type dredger will be preferable. If dredged material is considered suitable, it can be used for reclamation, otherwise it will be disposed of at the offshore area where sufficient depths are provided. In the meantime, currently, there is a potential plan to construct an LNG power plant at the western part of the Dongo Kundu area as illustrated in Figure 7.1.2. It is understood that the LNG power plant will be constructed by the investment of a private sector and depending on the target size of the LNG ships, the approach channel will be dredged and required exclusively for the LNG ships to access deep into the Port Reitz area. The approach channel will be straight extending to the existing channel centerline. The timing of dredging for the approach channel for the LNG ships is not yet known, but it would be before the construction of new container berths No 24 and 25.

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Figure 7.1.2 Proposed Location for LNG Power Plant Source: JICA Mombasa SEZ Master Plan Draft Final Report c) Reclamation Reclamation will be necessary in order to secure land for spaces for cargo handling, storages and related building facilities. If dredged material in the channel and basins is not able to be used effectively for reclamation, it must be disposed of offshore. As the Dongo Kundu area is characterized by a hilly land, land excavation with a huge quantity of soil is expected in the course of the development of a special economic zone (SEZ), which is one of the flagship projects in Kenya Vision 2030. One (1) borehole for geotechnical investigations was penetrated in 2014 in the backyard area of the new terminal and a hard stratum was encountered at a comparatively shallow depth. Meanwhile, a sand source survey was conducted in 2009 in water depths not exceeding 50 m in the outer channel area and an eight (8) km southern block that paralleled the coast for further eight (8) km in order to verify the availability of sand to be used for reclamation. However, considering the reclamation volume needed for Phase 2 of the Second Container Terminal, additional sand source survey should be conducted in the succeeding stage to confirm the availability of the suitable material for reclamation. Considering the productivity (cycle) of the dredging works such as pumping up the seabed material, transport and discharging it to the reclamation area, a trailing suction hopper dredger is deemed suitable for reclamation works. d) Revetments Rubble mound type revetments will be necessary in order to retain the reclamation material inside the boundary. Since the existing Mombasa Port is situated inside the calm bay, protected by offshore waves, the rubble stones with a small size should be sufficient to protect against waves and currents eventually generated inside the bay. Figure 7.1.3 is a typical cross section of the revetment.

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Figure 7.1.3 Typical Cross Section for Revetments Source: JICA Team e) Berths The required berth length is determined considering the overall length of vessels and mooring method. The new berths (Berth No.23-25) at the Second Container Terminal will have the same dimensions of Berths 21 and 22, each of which has an overall length of 300 m and a water depth of -15 m. The new wharf at the Dongo Kundu area will handle vehicles, dry bulk cargo (wheat, maize, clinker), general cargo, and containers, some of which will be generated by the activities of the SEZ. The new wharf will have a structure to support the quayside gantry cranes (Post Panamax type) that are equal to those which will be installed for Phase 1 of the Second Container Terminal. Figure 7.1.4 shows the typical cross section of the new berths. Also, a water depth of -14.0m will be secured considering the current trend of ships worldwide, however, it can be possible to dredge down to -15.0m afterward since the structure itself can be designed for such a deep depth from the beginning.

Figure 7.1.4 Typical Cross Section for New Berths Source: JICA Team f) Sand Replacement Sand replacement will be required under the future apron area in order to fill better sand material in

7-4 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy order to prevent sliding due to the future loading pressures by heavy equipment as a result of cargo handling operation in the reclamation area. Sand replacement will be conducted by means of a suction type dredger and all of the material will be disposed of in the designated offshore areas. g) Pavement The yards behind the new terminals will be used for stocking containers, general and dry bulk cargo. As the cargo handling equipment i.e. rubber tired gantry cranes (RTGs), reach stackers, forklifts and chassis will move inside the terminal, the pavement type of interlocking concrete blocks (ICB) will be adopted, taking advantage of easy maintenance. The lanes for the rubber tired gantry cranes will be designated and the pavement type for them will be different from other areas. h) Access Road Access Road is under construction for Phase 1 of the Second Container Terminal in order to connect with the new By-pass Road, which will provide a smooth traffic flow from/to Mombasa Port to/from Nairobi and other neighboring countries. In order to reduce the future traffic congestion at the connection point at the Trunk Road and Access Road, a new access road will be required for the Second Container Terminal especially for Berths No.24 and 25 as the number of container cargoes will increase drastically after the construction of the new berths as they are expected to be operated by major terminal operator. However, in order to preliminarily propose the alignment of the new access road, the SGR alignment needs to be confirmed. i) Utility Works Utility works include the following work items.  Water supply  Electrical supply  Sewerage  Fire fighting  Security system Electricity will be supplied to quayside gantry cranes, reefer containers, buildings, yards and lightings. j) Building Works Buildings to be newly constructed for Phase 1 of the Second Container Terminal include the following kinds. Almost the same kinds of buildings will be needed for future container terminals.  Container Gate  Administration Building  Welfare Building  Mechanical Equipment Workshop  Fuel Supply Station  Electric Sub-station  Fire Engine Station  Customs Warehouse  Toilet  Site Office  Tug-boat Office & Store  Public Toilet For bulk handing terminals, silos will be constructed in order to stock necessary bulk cargo temporarily after it is discharged/unloaded by means of a combination of unloader and belt conveyor system. (2) Procurement of Cargo Handling Equipment The cargo handling equipment to be procured for Phase 1 includes 2 ship-to-shore (STS) gantry cranes

7-5 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy and 4 rubber tired gantry cranes (RTG). Other cargo handling equipment required for container cargo handling will be procured by a private terminal operator which will be selected by the tendering process underway. It has been assumed that the 4 STSs and 8 RTGs for future container terminals will be provided by the public entity and other additionally required equipment will be procured by private firms. 2 unloaders and belt conveyor system will be introduced for dry bulk cargo handling at the Dongo Kundu terminal. (3) Preliminary Project Cost Estimation Preliminary project cost estimation has been carried out, categorizing the work items in the previous section. a) Construction and Equipment Procurement Costs The construction of civil and building works and procurement of equipment for the Mombasa Port development including the Dongo Kundu area have been estimated as below.  General Requirement (Mobilization/Demobilization, Preparation)  Dredging  Reclamation  Revetments  Berths (Container, General Cargo, Bulk)  Soil Improvement  Pavement  Utility Works  Building Works  Cargo Handling Equipment Cost estimates for 2 cases namely, Base case and Alternative case, has been established a shown below. However, the costs for construction and equipment procurement are in a preliminary stage and more detailed cost estimation should be conducted in the succeeding feasibility study stage.

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Table 7.1.1 Summary of Project Costs (Base Case) (1/2) Costs Year Cargo Dimension Location Berths Remarks Stage (US$1Million) Container 210m x -10m Reitz 20 Yen Loan Construction - Container 300m x -15m Reitz 21 Phase 1 Construction - Design (DD) 4.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 to 2020 Yen Loan Container 300m x -15m Reitz 22 Supervision (CS) 6.0 Phase 2 Construction (CO) 138.0 Equipment (EQ) 24.0 Other General 180m x -10m Lighter Area 4 DD, TD, CS, CO 80.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 Container 300m x -15m Reitz 23 Supervision (CS) 8.0 Construction (CO) 150.2 Equipment (EQ) 48.0 Design (DD) 5.5 2021 to Various Dongo Tender (TD) 0.5 300m x -14m D1 2025 (Multi-purpose) Kundu Supervision (CS) 8.0 Construction (CO) 168.7 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 Various Dongo 300m x -14m D2 Supervision (CS) 8.0 (Multi-purpose) Kundu Construction (CO) 121.3 Equipment (EQ) 24.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 2026 to Container 300m x -15m Reitz 24 Supervision (CS) 8.0 2030 Construction (CO) 150.6 Equipment (EQ) 48.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 2031 to Container 300m x -15m Reitz 25 Supervision (CS) 8.0 2035 Construction (CO) 163.3 Equipment (EQ) 48.0 Passenger 370m x -11m Lighter Area 1 DD, TD, CS, CO 75.0 TOTAL 1,322.6 Source: JICA Team

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Table 7.1.2 Summary of Project Costs (Base Case) (2/2) Costs Year Cargo Location Improvement Work (US$1Million) *Structural Improvement of Jetty to Increase 20.0 Bulk Mbaraki Productivity *Introduction of Additional Unloaders 10.0 *Extension of Quay-wall Length (200m) (Relocation of existing oil jetty should be 100.0 to 2020 Container Berth No. 19 done at first.) *Introduction of New STS Gantry Cranes and 24.0 Other Equipment *Deepening Quay-wall Depth (-10m to -12m) Various Cargo Berth No. 11 to 14 (4 Berths to 3 berths) 120.0 *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement Oil Offshore Relocation of KOT 152.0 Vehicle/Steel/ Berth No. 1, 2, 4, 5, *Introduction of Additional Unloaders to Other General 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 and 30.0 2021 to Increase Productivity Cargo 13 2025 Wheat, Clinker, Berth No. 3, 4, 8, 9 *Introduction of Additional Unloader to Coal, and 30.0 and 10 Increase Productivity Other bulk cargo *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement 2020 to Berth No. 1 to 10 180.0 Various Cargo (Urgent) 2035 Berth No. 16 to 18 *Rehabilitation of Quay-wall and Pavement 30.0 TOTAL 696.0 Source: JICA Team

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Table 7.1.3 Summary of Project Costs (Alternative Case) (1/2) Costs Year Cargo Dimension Location Berths Remarks Stage (US$1Million) Container 210m x -10m Reitz 20 Yen Loan Construction - Container 300m x -15m Reitz 21 Phase 1 Construction - Design (DD) 4.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 to 2020 Yen Loan Container 300m x -15m Reitz 22 Supervision (CS) 6.0 Phase 2 Construction (CO) 138.0 Equipment (EQ) 24.0 Other General 180m x -10m Lighter Area 4 DD, TD, CS, CO 80.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 Container 300m x -15m Reitz 23 Supervision (CS) 8.0 Construction (CO) 150.2 Equipment (EQ) 48.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Various Dongo Tender (TD) 0.5 300m x -14m D1 (Multi-purpose) Kundu Supervision (CS) 8.0 Construction (CO) 168.7 2021 to Design (DD) 5.5 2025 Tender (TD) 1.0 Various Dongo 300m x -14m D2 Supervision (CS) 8.0 (Multi-purpose) Kundu Construction (CO) 168.7 Equipment (EQ) 24.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 Various Dongo 300m x -14m D3 Supervision (CS) 8.0 (Multi-purpose) Kundu Construction (CO) 121.3 Equipment (EQ) 24.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 Various Dongo 300m x -14m D4 Supervision (CS) 6.0 (Multi-purpose) Kundu Construction (CO) 78.4 2026 to Equipment (EQ) 24.0 2030 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 Container 300m x -15m Reitz 24 Supervision (CS) 8.0 Construction (CO) 150.6 Equipment (EQ) 48.0 Design (DD) 5.5 Tender (TD) 1.0 2031 to Container 300m x -15m Reitz 25 Supervision (CS) 8.0 2035 Construction (CO) 163.3 Equipment (EQ) 48.0 Passenger 370m x -11m Lighter Area 1 DD, TD, CS, CO 75.0 TOTAL 1,644.7 Source: JICA Team

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Table 7.1.4 Summary of Project Costs (Alternative Case) (2/2) Costs Year Cargo Location Improvement Work (US$1Million) *Structural Improvement of Jetty to Increase 20.0 Bulk Mbaraki Productivity *Introduction of Additional Unloaders 10.0 *Extension of Quay-wall Length (200m) (Relocation of existing oil jetty should be 100.0 to 2020 Container Berth No. 19 done at first.) *Introduction of New STS Gantry Cranes and 24.0 Other Equipment *Deepening Quay-wall Depth (-10m to -12m) Various Cargo Berth No. 11 to 14 (4 Berths to 3 berths) 120.0 *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement Oil Offshore Relocation of KOT 152.0 Vehicle/Steel/ Berth No. 1, 2, 4, 5, *Introduction of Additional Unloaders to Other General 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 and 30.0 2021 to Increase Productivity Cargo 13 2025 Wheat, Clinker, Berth No. 3, 4, 8, 9 *Introduction of Additional Unloader to Coal, and 30.0 and 10 Increase Productivity Other bulk cargo *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement 2020 to Berth No. 1 to 10 180.0 Various Cargo (Urgent) 2035 Berth No. 16 to 18 *Rehabilitation of Quay-wall and Pavement 30.0 TOTAL 696.0 Source: JICA Team b) Contingencies Price and physical contingencies should be included in the project cost estimations; a contingency of roughly five (5) percent of the costs for the civil works will be applied for the time being in order to supplement additional costs to be incurred, as a result of uncertainty in the course of the construction works. c) Engineering and Supervisory Costs Engineering services include detailed design on civil and building works such as port facilities, dredging and reclamation, building and utility works, tender assistance for selection of contractors, and supervisory services of construction works and equipment procurement.

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(4) Preliminary Implementation Schedule Preliminary project implementation schedules for 2 cases are presented in Table 7.1.5, Table 7.1.6, Table 7.1.7 and Table 7.1.8.

Table 7.1.5 Preliminary Project Implementation Schedule (Base Case) (1/2)

Year Cargo Dimension Location Berths Stage 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

210m x Container Reitz 20 Construction -10m 300m x Container Reitz 21 Construction -15m Design (DD)

Tender (TD) to 300m x 2020 Container Reitz 22 Supervision (CS) -15m Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Other 180m x Lighter 4 DD, TD, CS, CO General -10m Area

Design (DD)

Tender (TD) 300m x Container Reitz 23 Supervision (CS) -15m Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Design (DD)

2021 Tender (TD) Multi- 300m x Dongo to D1 purpose -14m Kundu 2025 Supervision (CS)

Construction (CO)

Design (DD)

Tender (TD) Multi- 300m x Dongo D2 Supervision (CS) purpose -14 m Kundu Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Design (DD)

Tender (TD) 2026 300m x to Container Reitz 24 Supervision (CS) -15m 2030 Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Design (DD)

Tender (TD) 300m x Container Reitz 25 Supervision (CS) 2031 -15m to 2035 Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

370m x Lighter Passenger 1 DD, TD, CS, CO -11m Area Source: JICA Team

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Table 7.1.6 Preliminary Project Implementation Schedule (Base Case) (2/2)

Year Cargo Location Improvement Work 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

*Structural Improvement of Jetty to Increase Productivity Bulk Mbaraki *Introduction of Additional Unloaders

*Extension of Quay-wall Length (200m) (Relocation of existing oil to 2020 jetty should be done at first.) Container Berth No. 19 *Introduction of New STS Gantry Cranes and Other Equipment

*Deepening Quay-wall Depth (-10m Various Cargo Berth No.11 to 14 to -12m) (4 Berths to 3 berths) *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement

Oil KOT Relocation of KOT

Vehicle/Steel/ Berth No. 1, 2, 4, 2021 to *Introduction of Additional Unloaders Other General 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 2025 to Increase Productivity Cargo and 13 Wheat, Berth No. 3, 4, 8, *Introduction of Additional Unloader Clinker, 9 and 10 to Increase Productivity Coal, and *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement Berth No. 1 to 10 (Urgent) 2020 to Various Cargo 2035 *Rehabilitation of Quay-wall and Berth No. 16 to 18 Pavement Source: JICA Team

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Table 7.1.7 Preliminary Project Implementation Schedule (Alternative Case) (1/2)

Year Cargo Dimension Location Berths Stage 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

210m x Container Reitz 20 Construction -10m 300m x Container Reitz 21 Construction -15m Design (DD)

Tender (TD) to 300m x 2020 Container Reitz 22 Supervision (CS) -15m Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Other 180m x Lighter 4 DD, TD, CS, CO General -10m Area Design (DD)

Tender (TD) 300m x Container Reitz 23 Supervision (CS) -15m Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Design (DD)

Multi- 300m x Dongo Tender (TD) D1 purpose -14m Kundu Supervision (CS)

Construction (CO) 2021 to Design (DD) 2025 Tender (TD) Multi- 300m x Dongo D2 Supervision (CS) purpose -14 m Kundu Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Design (DD)

Tender (TD) Multi- 300m x Dongo D3 Supervision (CS) purpose -14 m Kundu Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Design (DD)

Tender (TD) Multi- 300m x Dongo D4 Supervision (CS) purpose -14 m Kundu Construction (CO)

2026 Equipment (EQ) to 2030 Design (DD)

Tender (TD) 300m x Container Reitz 24 Supervision (CS) -15m Construction (CO)

Equipment (EQ)

Design (DD)

Tender (TD) 300m x Container Reitz 25 Supervision (CS) 2031 -15m to Construction (CO) 2035 Equipment (EQ)

370m x Lighter Passenger 1 DD, TD, CS, CO -11m Area Source: JICA Team

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Table 7.1.8 Preliminary Project Implementation Schedule (Alternative Case) (2/2)

Year Cargo Location Improvement Work 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

*Structural Improvement of Jetty to Increase Productivity Bulk Mbaraki *Introduction of Additional Unloaders

*Extension of Quay-wall Length (200m) (Relocation of existing oil to 2020 jetty should be done at first.) Container Berth No. 19 *Introduction of New STS Gantry Cranes and Other Equipment

*Deepening Quay-wall Depth (-10m Various Cargo Berth No.11 to 14 to -12m) (4 Berths to 3 berths) *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement

Oil KOT Relocation of KOT

Vehicle/Steel/ Berth No. 1, 2, 4, 2021 to *Introduction of Additional Unloaders Other General 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 2025 to Increase Productivity Cargo and 13 Wheat, Berth No. 3, 4, 8, *Introduction of Additional Unloader Clinker, 9 and 10 to Increase Productivity Coal, and *Renewal of Quay-wall and Pavement Berth No. 1 to 10 (Urgent) 2020 to Various Cargo 2035 *Rehabilitation of Quay-wall and Berth No. 16 to 18 Pavement Source: JICA Team

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7.1.2 Economic analysis (1) Purpose of Economic Analysis The purpose of the economic analysis is to appraise the economic feasibility of Master Plan Project of Mombasa Port and Dongo Kundu Development in the target year from the viewpoint of the national economy. This economic analysis is conducted to study the economic benefits as well as the economic costs arising from this project, and to evaluate whether the benefits of the project exceed those that could be obtained from other investment opportunities in Kenya. (2) Methodology of Economic Analysis The economic analysis is carried out according to the following method. The Master Plan Project which is considered as the “With” case and it is compared to the “Without project” case (hereinafter referred to as the “Without” case). All benefits and costs in the market price on the difference between “With” case and “Without” case are calculated and they are converted to economic prices. Then all benefits and costs are evaluated at economic prices. In this study, the Net Present Value (NPV), the benefit/cost ratio (B/C ratio) and the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) based on the cost-benefit analysis are used to appraise the feasibility of the project during the project life. Further, the benefit /cost ratio is obtained by dividing the benefits by costs based on the present value. (3) Assumption for the Economic Analysis a) Base Year The “Base Year” means the standard year when costs and benefits are estimated. In this study, hence, the year 2015 is set as the “Base Year”. b) Project Life The construction works of Master Plan Project are both (i) Construction of 11 berths (13 berths for Alternative case) and Equipment Procurement from 2015 to 2035 and (ii) Other Improvement Work on Existing Port Facilities from 2016 to 2035.The period of calculation (project life) in the economic analysis is assumed to be 51 years including a 30-year period after the construction works. c) Foreign Exchange Rate The exchange rate adopted for this analysis is US$1.000=JPY124.15=KES97.79 (as of average rate of 29 May 2015), and the same rate is used in the cost estimation. d) “With” Case and “Without” Case Here, the cost- benefit analysis is conducted on the difference of the “With” case and the “Without” case, hence, it is necessary to define “With” case and “Without” case as follows.

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Table 7.1.9 “With” Case and “Without” Case "With" Case "Without" Case Implementation of Master Plan Project for the No Implementation of Master Plan Project Following Project (1) New Berth Project A new port is planned at Mbegani, near Bagamoyo; 2 Container Berths (300m x -15m) the Tanzanian government has proposed a deepwater to 2020 1 Container Berth (210m x -10m) port with an initial two berth container terminal. 4 General Cargo Berths (180m x -10m) According to the Tanzania president's office, 1 Container Berth (300m x -15m) construction of a Chinese-funded port and special from 2021 to 1 Multi-purpose Berth (300m x -14m) economic zone in Tanzania worth at least $10 billion 2025 1 Multi-purpose Berth (300m x -14 m) will start in July 2015 with the first phase being 1 Container Berth (300m x -15m) completed in 2017. from 2026 to 2 Multi-purpose Berth (300m x -14m) 2030 in the Alternative Case Based on the above information, planned Bagamoyo from 2031 to 1 Container Berth (300m x -15m) Port has been considered to be the alternative port for Mombasa Port in the “Without” case where container 2035 1 Passenger Terminal (370m x -11m) ships divert from Mombasa Port to planned (2) Other Improvement Work on Existing Facilities Bagamoyo Port. Mbaraki

to 2020 Berth No. 19 Kenyan local container cargoes loaded or discharged Berth No. 11 to 14 at Planned Bagamoyo Port are hauled to or from Offshore (Relocation of KOT) Mombasa. to 2020/ 2025 Berth No. 1,2,4,5,7,8,9,11,12 and 13 Berth No. 3,4,8,9 and 10 from 2020 to Berth No. 1 to 10 2035 Berth No. 16 to 18 Source: The Project Team

(4) Economic Price a) General For the economic analysis, all prices should be expressed in economic prices, which mean the international prices or border prices. Theoretically, the economic price is the opportunity cost of scarce resources; in general, the value of goods quoted at the market price does not always represent the actual value of goods. The market price often includes transfer items, such as customs duties, subsidies etc., which do not actually reflect any consumption of resources. Therefore, the market prices should be converted into economic prices by eliminating these. All costs and benefits will be classified into the following items. The economic prices of each item are calculated by multiplying the market prices by the conversion factor corresponding to each item.  Tradable goods  Non-tradable goods  Labor (Labor is further classified into skilled labor and unskilled labor.) b) Conversion Factors Standard Conversion Factor (SCF) Customs duties create a price difference between the domestic market and the international market. The SCF is used to determine the economic prices of non-tradable goods that have only market prices. The SCF is calculated by the following formula. SCF = (I+E) / {(I+Di) + (E-De)} Where, I: Total value of imports (CIF) E: Total Value of exports (FOB) Di: Total Value of impart duties De: Total Value of export duties

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In this report, the recent trend of the SCF is shown in Table 7.1.10. The averaged SCF (2008 – 2012) is adopted as the SCF. Conversion Factor for Consumption (CFC) This conversion factor is used to convert the market prices of consumer goods into the border prices. The conversion factor for consumption is usually calculated in the same manner as the Standard Conversion Factor, replacing total imports and exports by total imports of consumer goods. The CFS will be calculated by the following formula. CFC = (Ic + Ec)/ { (Ic +Dic) + (Ec-Dec)} Where, Ic: Total value of consumer goods imports (CIF) Ec: Total value of consumer goods exports (FOB) Dic: Total value of consumer goods import duties Dec: Total value of consumer goods export duties As exact statistics for these consumer goods are not available and the country imports almost whole categories of consumer and industrial goods, CFC is substituted with SCF, which equals 0.973.

Table 7.1.10 Recent Trend of Standard Conversion Factor (SCF) Million Ksh Year Total Export Total Import Export Duties Import Duties SCF 2008 344,947 770,651 0 33,403 0.971 2009 344,950 788,097 0 36,181 0.969 2010 409,794 947,206 0 41,271 0.970 2011 512,604 1,300,749 0 46,072 0.975 2012 517,847 1,374,587 0 51,712 0.973 Average 0.972 Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2011/2014) and International Monetary Fund

Conversion Factor for the Skilled Labor (CFSL) The cost of the skilled labor is calculated based on actual market wages, assuming that the market mechanism is functioning properly. However, as the data are domestic prices or market prices, they should be converted to border prices by multiplying by the conversion factor for consumption. The conversion factor for the skilled labor (CFSL) is calculated by the following formula. CFSL = Opportunity cost of skilled labor/Actual market wages of skilled labor x CFS Where, the opportunity cost of skilled labors/Actual market wages of skilled labors = 1 CFS: Conversion Factor for Consumption (0.972) Conversion Factor for the Unskilled Labor (CFUL). As the wage rate is controlled by a minimum wage system and other regulations despite the existence of a large amount of the unskilled labor, the wages paid to the unskilled labor by a project are generally above the opportunity cost. Hence, these wages should not be used for calculation of the economic value of the unskilled labor. The marginal productivity of the unskilled labor is assumed to be equal to the unskilled employer in the Agricultural Industry sector. On the other hand, the skilled labor is assumed as a farm foreman, farm clerk or Lorry/car driver in the Agricultural Industry sector. According to the “The Regulation of Wages (Agricultural Industry) (Amendment) Order, 2013”, in the comparison of the unskilled employer and the skilled employees such as farm foreman, farm clerk or lorry/car driver, CFUL is given 0.59 on average. Therefore, 0.59 for CFUL is adopted.

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(5) Economic Benefits of the Project a) Benefit Items Considering the above mentioned “With” and “Without” cases, the following economic benefits can be envisaged from the Master Plan Project. For the cargo, the estimated sea/land transportation costs from Bagamoyo Port to Mombasae Port (Road distance km) and cargo handling cost in Bagamoyo Port are assumed as the economic benefit. Moreover, the foreign income from meals, tours & attractions, shopping, etc. from passengers and crews of the cruise ships are assumed as benefits generated from the cruise ship accommodation. As for other benefits, following qualitative benefits are pointed out.  The effect on the acceleration of regional development including SEZ  Additional employment and income opportunities induced by port construction and operation  Increasing added values induced by the increase of output in the port related industry and port-dependent industry  Providing recreation and personnel exchange opportunities for the visitors coming to the cruise ship terminal (6) Calculation of Benefit a) Saving of Sea Transport Cost Savings in sea transportation cost will be generated from avoiding the diversion to Bagamoyo from Mombasa Port. Currently, most of the container ships calling at Mombasa Port or Bagayomo port ply the shipping routes in the direction of Salalah Port. The difference in distance between the shipping route from Mombasa Port to Salalah Port and the shipping route from Bagamoyo Port instead of Dar Es Salaam port to Salalah Port is 97 sea miles, and the difference in sea transport cost for full containers between the two shipping routes has been estimated at 7.5 USD per TEU in the case of 4,000 TEU container vessels. The saving of above-mentioned difference in sea transport cost to be generated from the Master Plan Study is considered to be the economic benefit for the Kenyan economy. The contribution ratio for the Kenyan economy has been assumed to be 50%. b) Saving of Land Transport Unit land transport cost of a full container between Bagayomo Port and Mombasa over a distance of 440 km has been estimated at 762 USD per TEU. Unit land transport cost is expressed for the round trip cost for a full container on the assumption that one way is bringing back an empty container box from importers or bringing them for exporters. It has been also assumed that two 20 ft containers are hauled on one chassis. The saving of above-mentioned land transport cost for containers to be generated from the Master Plan Project is considered to be the economic benefit for the Kenyan economy. c) Saving of Cargo Handling Cost Based on the “Tariff Book of Port Dues and Charges in 2013” by Tanzania Ports Authority, shore handling container cost is described as follows.

Table 7.1.11 Shore Handling Cost of Container in Tanzania Ports Authority

Transit Containers Rate per Container Unit of - USD (Exports & Imports) Up to 20ft. Over 20ft. FCL Containers 80.00 120.00 Empty Container 10.00 20.00 Source:“Tariff Book of Port Dues and Charges in 2013” by Tanzania Ports Authority,

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Above cargo handling cost for containers to be generated from “Without” case is considered to be the economic benefit for the Kenyan economy. d) Foreign Income from Meals, Tours & Attractions, Shopping, etc. from Passengers and Crews of the Cruise Ships Foreign income of US$152 per passenger on average from 2008 to 2012 is applied based on The World Bank. (See Table 7.1.12) This average foreign income of US 152 per passenger is applied for passengers from bigger cruise ships, more than 2,000 passengers capacity. Number of passengers from bigger cruise ship is assumed 66% of cruise ship passenger forecast under moderate growth scenario from 2035 until the planned passenger terminal capacity (approximately 90,000 passengers per one passenger terminal). The estimated foreign income from 2035 to 2059 is shown in Table 7.1.13

Table 7.1.12 Foreign Tourist Expenditures and Arrivals (2008-2012)

International tourism, International tourism, Foreign Income per Year expenditures for travel number of arrivals Passenger (US$/person) items (current US$) 2008 266,000,000 1,141,000 233 2009 227,000,000 1,392,000 163 2010 212,000,000 1,470,000 144 2011 197,000,000 1,750,000 113 2012 174,000,000 1,619,000 107 Average 152

Source: The World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org)

Table 7.1.13 Estimated Foreign Income from 2035 to 2059 Cruise Ship Passenger Estimated of Passengers Foreign Income from Bigger Year Forecast from Bigger Cruise Ships Ship Passenger (Moderate Growth Scenario) (more than 2,000 passengers) (US$1,000/year) 2035 15,274 10,081 1,532 2040 22,443 14,812 2,251 2045 32,975 21,764 3,308 2050 48,452 31,978 4,861 2059 90,000 59,400 9,029 Source: The Project Team

(7) Economic Costs of the Project a) Construction Cost Construction costs are divided into the the foreign currency portion and local currency portion consisting of skilled labors, unskilled labors and non-tradable materials. The cost at market prices is converted to the cost at economic prices using the conversion factor. b) Maintenance and Operation Cost Table 7.1.14 shows construction costs are divided into the foreign currency portion and local currency portion consisting of skilled labors, unskilled labors and non-tradable materials. The cost at market prices is converted to the cost at economic prices using the conversion factor.

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Table 7.1.14 Maintenance and Operation Cost

Cost Details of Estimation Administration Expense 20% of personnel expense Operation Expense 7.15% of initial costs of the cargo handling equipment. 1% of initial costs of the infrastructure and 3% of initial costs of the cargo handling Maintenance and Repair Expenses equipment.

2.8 million USD every 5 years for Kilindili Terminals No.24 and 25 each, and Maintenance Dredging 5million USD every 5 years for Dongo Kundu Terminals D1, D2 ,D3 and D4 each.

Container Berth 22, 23, 24 & 25 (D4) USD 8,913 D1(Vehicle) USD 2,850 D2, D3 (Wheat) USD 5,190 Personnel Expense (USD 1,000) L1-L4 (General Cargo) USD 2,850 Passenger Terminal USD 2,850 Casual Labor Cost: 50% of above KPA personnel cost for D1 and L1-L4 Source: The Project Team

The total cost is the sum of the construction cost and M&O (Maintenance & Operation) evaluated in the economic cost concept. (8) Economic Evaluation of the Project a) Calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) The Net Present Value is calculated using the following formula. NPV = ∑ (Bi – Ci) / {(1+r) ^(I +1)} (i=1 to n) Where, n: period of economic calculation (project life = 30 years) Bi: Benefit in i –th year Ci: Cost in i –th year r: Discount rate = 12% (Opportunity Cost of Capital) b) Calculation of the Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C ratio) The benefit/cost ratio is obtained by dividing the economic benefit by the economic cost. The calculation result for B/C is 12 percent, which is same as the one in NPV calculation. c) Calculation of the EIRR The economic internal rate of return (EIRR) based on the cost-benefit analysis is used to appraise the economic feasibility of the project. The EIRR is the discount rate, which makes the costs and benefits of the project life equal. It is calculated using the following formula. ∑ (Bi –Ci) / (1+r) ^ (i-1) = 0 (i=1 to n) Where, n: period of economy calculation (project life =30 years) Bi: Benefits in i-th year Ci: Costs in i-th year R: discount rate d) Sensitivity Analysis In order to examine whether or not the project is still feasible when any condition changes, a sensitivity analysis is made for the following 3 alternatives.

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 Case A: The costs increase by 10%  Case B: The benefits decrease by 10%  Case C: Both Case A and B occur simultaneously. The result of the sensitivity by the base case and the alternative case is shown in Table 7.1.15 with the NPV (Net Present Value), B/C ratio and EIRR. And each EIRR sheet is shows in In general, it is considered that a project with an EIRR of more than 12% is economically feasible considering the opportunity cost of capital. As for this study, the estimated EIRRs are 17.7 % for the base case and 16.6 % for the alternative case. Moreover, EIRRs for 3 alternatives of the base case and the alternative case in the above sensitivity analysis are more than 12%. Therefore, the proposed projects (base and alternative case) are considered to be feasible and recommendable from the viewpoint of the national economy. Table 7.1.16 and Table 7.1.17.

Table 7.1.15 Sensitivity Analysis Base Case (New 11 berths and other improvement works on existing facilities) NPV Case B/C Ratio EIRR (1,000 US$) Base Case 793,946 1.50 17.7% Case 1 634,082 1.36 16.2% Case 2 554,687 1.35 16.1% Case 3 394,824 1.22 14.7% Alternative Case (New 13 berths and other improvement works on existing facilities) NPV Case B/C Ratio EIRR (1,000 US$) Base Case 653,404 1.38 16.6% Case 1 479,487 1.25 15.1% Case 2 414,146 1.24 15.0% Case 3 240,228 1.13 13.6% Note: 12% (economic opportunity cost of capital) is used for NPV and B/C Ratio analysis

The increase of the construction cost and the decrease of the cargo volume will not give a big impact on the project feasibility. Even though the case A and case B occur simultaneously, the feasibility of the project is quite acceptable. e) Conclusion In general, it is considered that a project with an EIRR of more than 12% is economically feasible considering the opportunity cost of capital. As for this study, the estimated EIRRs are 17.7 % for the base case and 16.6 % for the alternative case. Moreover, EIRRs for 3 alternatives of the base case and the alternative case in the above sensitivity analysis are more than 12%. Therefore, the proposed projects (base and alternative case) are considered to be feasible and recommendable from the viewpoint of the national economy.

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Table 7.1.16 Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of Base Case

Unit: 1,000 USD Maintenance & Operation Cost Net Present Value (NPV) Net Mainte- Mainte- Total Total Investment Economical YearNo. Personnel Adminis- Operation nance and Renewal nance Costs Benefits Cost Benefit Benefit Cost Difference Expense tration Cost Expense Repair Investment Dredging (C) (B) (B-C) Expenses Cost 1 2015 4,345 4,345 -4,345 0 4,345 -4,345 2 2016 15,448 15,448 -15,448 0 13,793 -13,793 3 2017 123,874 123,874 -123,874 0 98,751 -98,751 4 2018 189,045 189,045 -189,045 0 134,558 -134,558 5 2019 343,573 343,573 -343,573 0 218,347 -218,347 6 2020 291,098 26,741 5,198 3,336 2,741 0 329,114 52,544 -276,570 29,815 186,748 -156,933 7 2021 235,872 34,526 6,712 3,336 3,519 0 283,964 107,231 -176,733 54,326 143,865 -89,538 8 2022 173,018 37,376 7,266 3,336 5,158 0 226,154 164,617 -61,537 74,464 102,300 -27,836 9 2023 41,034 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 142,512 224,867 82,355 90,820 57,558 33,262 10 2024 78,881 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 2,722 183,081 288,387 105,306 103,995 66,021 37,974 11 2025 79,171 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 180,649 344,032 163,383 110,769 58,164 52,605 12 2026 59,282 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 4,860 165,620 402,047 236,428 115,579 47,612 67,967 13 2027 69,709 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 171,187 462,432 291,245 118,695 43,939 74,755 14 2028 41,323 96,048 18,672 11,676 13,221 0 180,940 525,269 344,329 120,378 41,467 78,911 15 2029 41,613 96,048 18,672 11,676 13,221 0 2,722 183,951 590,803 406,852 120,890 37,640 83,250 16 2030 56,965 96,048 18,672 11,676 13,221 0 196,581 659,034 462,453 120,403 35,915 84,488 17 2031 77,143 96,048 18,672 11,676 13,221 0 4,860 221,620 713,542 491,922 116,394 36,151 80,243 18 2032 1,352 122,789 23,870 15,012 16,208 0 179,230 769,605 590,375 112,089 26,104 85,985 19 2033 33,117 122,789 23,870 15,012 16,208 0 210,995 827,544 616,549 107,613 27,438 80,176 20 2034 47,599 122,789 23,870 15,012 16,208 46,656 2,722 274,855 887,121 612,266 103,001 31,913 71,088 21 2035 14,483 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 196,494 950,149 753,655 98,499 20,370 78,129 22 2036 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 4,860 186,872 950,268 763,396 87,956 17,297 70,660 23 2037 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 69,984 251,996 950,397 698,401 78,543 20,826 57,718 24 2038 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 950,536 768,524 70,138 13,430 56,708 25 2039 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 2,722 184,733 950,686 765,952 62,633 12,171 50,463 26 2040 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 950,848 768,836 55,932 10,707 45,225 27 2041 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 4,860 186,872 951,023 764,151 49,948 9,815 40,134 28 2042 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 46,656 228,668 951,212 722,544 44,606 10,723 33,883 29 2043 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 951,416 769,405 39,835 7,621 32,214 30 2044 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 2,722 184,733 951,637 766,903 35,575 6,906 28,669 31 2045 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 951,875 769,863 31,772 6,075 25,696 32 2046 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 46,656 4,860 233,528 952,132 718,604 28,375 6,960 21,416 33 2047 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 952,410 770,398 25,342 4,843 20,499 34 2048 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 952,710 770,698 22,634 4,324 18,310 35 2049 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 46,656 2,722 231,389 953,034 721,645 20,216 4,908 15,308 36 2050 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 953,384 771,372 18,057 3,447 14,609 37 2051 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 4,860 186,872 953,762 766,890 16,128 3,160 12,968 38 2052 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 69,984 251,996 954,170 702,175 14,407 3,805 10,602 39 2053 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 954,611 772,599 12,869 2,454 10,415 40 2054 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 2,722 184,733 955,087 770,354 11,496 2,224 9,272 41 2055 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 955,602 773,590 10,270 1,956 8,314 42 2056 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 4,860 186,872 956,157 769,285 9,175 1,793 7,382 43 2057 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 46,656 228,668 956,757 728,089 8,197 1,959 6,238 44 2058 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 957,404 775,393 7,324 1,392 5,931 45 2059 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 2,722 184,733 957,436 772,702 6,539 1,262 5,277 46 2060 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 957,436 775,424 5,838 1,110 4,729 47 2061 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 46,656 4,860 233,528 957,436 723,908 5,213 1,271 3,941 48 2062 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 957,436 775,424 4,654 885 3,770 49 2063 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 957,436 775,424 4,156 790 3,366 50 2064 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 46,656 2,722 231,389 957,436 726,046 3,710 897 2,814 51 2065 125,639 24,424 15,012 16,937 0 182,012 957,436 775,424 3,313 630 2,683 Total 2,017,943 5,092,542 989,990 608,802 689,765 466,560 63,374 9,928,978 36,588,392 26,659,414 2,392,583 1,598,637 793,946 EIRR= 17.7% Opportunity Cost= 12% B/C= 1.50

Target Years 2035 Benefit Sensitivity Analysis New 11 Berths Construction & Original case10% down Improvement Works of Existing Original case 17.7% 16.1% Cost Facilities 10% up 16.2% 14.7% Source: The Project Team

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Table 7.1.17 Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of Alternative Case

Unit: 1,000 USD Maintenance & Operation Cost Net Present Value (NPV) Net Mainte- Mainte- Total Total Investment Economical YearNo. Personnel Adminis- Operation nance and Renewal nance Costs Benefits Cost Benefit Benefit Cost Difference Expense tration Cost Expense Repair Investment Dredging (C) (B) (B-C) Expenses Cost 1 2015 4,345 4,345 -4,345 0 4,345 -4,345 2 2016 15,448 15,448 -15,448 0 13,793 -13,793 3 2017 123,874 123,874 -123,874 0 98,751 -98,751 4 2018 189,045 189,045 -189,045 0 134,558 -134,558 5 2019 343,573 343,573 -343,573 0 218,347 -218,347 6 2020 296,409 26,741 5,198 3,336 2,741 0 334,425 52,544 -281,880 29,815 189,762 -159,947 7 2021 236,354 34,526 6,712 3,336 3,519 0 284,447 107,231 -177,216 54,326 144,109 -89,783 8 2022 204,203 37,376 7,266 3,336 5,158 0 257,339 164,617 -92,722 74,464 116,407 -41,943 9 2023 77,819 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 179,297 224,867 45,570 90,820 72,415 18,405 10 2024 118,467 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 2,722 222,666 288,387 65,721 103,995 80,296 23,700 11 2025 153,321 69,307 13,473 8,340 10,358 0 254,799 344,032 89,233 110,769 82,038 28,731 12 2026 94,329 74,497 13,978 10,008 12,697 0 4,860 210,369 402,047 191,678 115,579 60,476 55,103 13 2027 112,384 74,497 13,978 10,008 12,697 0 223,564 462,432 238,868 118,695 57,383 61,311 14 2028 41,323 106,428 19,681 15,012 17,900 0 200,344 525,269 324,925 120,378 45,914 74,464 15 2029 41,613 106,428 19,681 15,012 17,900 0 2,722 203,356 590,803 387,447 120,890 41,611 79,279 16 2030 56,965 106,428 19,681 15,012 17,900 0 215,985 659,034 443,049 120,403 39,460 80,943 17 2031 77,143 106,428 19,681 15,012 17,900 0 4,860 241,024 713,542 472,518 116,394 39,316 77,078 18 2032 1,352 133,169 24,879 18,347 20,887 0 198,635 769,605 570,970 112,089 28,930 83,159 19 2033 33,117 133,169 24,879 18,347 20,887 0 230,400 827,544 597,144 107,613 29,961 77,652 20 2034 47,599 133,169 24,879 18,347 20,887 46,656 2,722 294,260 887,121 592,861 103,001 34,166 68,835 21 2035 14,483 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 215,898 950,149 734,250 98,499 22,381 76,117 22 2036 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 4,860 206,276 950,268 743,992 87,956 19,093 68,864 23 2037 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 69,984 271,400 950,397 678,997 78,543 22,429 56,114 24 2038 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 950,536 749,120 70,138 14,862 55,276 25 2039 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 2,722 204,138 950,686 746,548 62,633 13,449 49,184 26 2040 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 23,328 224,744 950,848 726,104 55,932 13,220 42,712 27 2041 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 4,860 206,276 951,023 744,747 49,948 10,834 39,115 28 2042 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 69,984 271,400 951,212 679,812 44,606 12,727 31,879 29 2043 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 951,416 750,000 39,835 8,433 31,402 30 2044 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 2,722 204,138 951,637 747,499 35,575 7,631 27,944 31 2045 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 951,875 750,459 31,772 6,723 25,049 32 2046 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 46,656 4,860 252,932 952,132 699,200 28,375 7,538 20,837 33 2047 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 952,410 750,994 25,342 5,359 19,983 34 2048 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 952,710 751,294 22,634 4,785 17,849 35 2049 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 46,656 2,722 250,794 953,034 702,241 20,216 5,320 14,896 36 2050 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 953,384 751,968 18,057 3,815 14,242 37 2051 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 4,860 206,276 953,762 747,486 16,128 3,488 12,640 38 2052 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 69,984 271,400 954,170 682,770 14,407 4,098 10,309 39 2053 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 954,611 753,195 12,869 2,715 10,154 40 2054 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 2,722 204,138 955,087 750,950 11,496 2,457 9,039 41 2055 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 23,328 224,744 955,602 730,858 10,270 2,415 7,854 42 2056 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 4,860 206,276 956,157 749,881 9,175 1,979 7,195 43 2057 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 69,984 271,400 956,757 685,357 8,197 2,325 5,872 44 2058 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 957,404 755,988 7,324 1,541 5,783 45 2059 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 2,722 204,138 957,436 753,298 6,539 1,394 5,145 46 2060 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 957,436 756,020 5,838 1,228 4,610 47 2061 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 46,656 4,860 252,932 957,436 704,504 5,213 1,377 3,836 48 2062 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 957,436 756,020 4,654 979 3,675 49 2063 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 957,436 756,020 4,156 874 3,281 50 2064 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 46,656 2,722 250,794 957,436 706,642 3,710 972 2,739 51 2065 136,019 25,433 18,347 21,616 0 201,416 957,436 756,020 3,313 697 2,616 Total 2,283,166 5,497,373 1,029,335 738,903 872,254 559,872 63,374 11,044,278 36,588,392 25,544,114 2,392,583 1,739,178 653,404 EIRR= 16.6% Opportunity Cost= 12% B/C= 1.38

Target Years 2035 Benefit Sensitivity Analysis New 13 Berths Construction & Original case10% down Improvement Works of Existing Original case 16.6% 15.0% Cost Facilities 10% up 15.1% 13.6% Source: The Project Team

7-23 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

7.1.3 Financial analysis (1) Purpose of the Financial Analysis The purpose of the financial analysis is to appraise the viability of the project, the master plan of Mombasa Port and Dongo Kundu Development from the year of 2016. (2) Methodology of the Financial Analysis The viability of the project is analyzed using the Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) by means of the discount cash flow method. The FIRR is a discount rate that makes the expenses and the revenues during the project life equal, and it is calculated using the following equation. ∑ = 0 ( ) where, n: Project life : Revenue in the i-th year : Expense in the i-th year r: Discount rate Here, the revenue and expense in this analysis cover the following items; Revenue: Operation service revenue by the project Expense: Initial investment Re-investment Personnel and administration expenses Operation expense Maintenance, repair expenses When the calculated FIRR exceeds the weighted average interest rate of the total funds for the investment of the project, the project regarded as financially feasible. (3) Assumption for the Financial Analysis  Base Year Prices in the year of 2016 are used in the financial analysis.  Project Life Taking account of the condition of the long-term loans and the service lives of the port facilities, the project life for the financial analysis is determined as 40 years.  Scope of Project The scope of the project covers the Mombasa Port Master Plan and the Dongo Kundu Development from 2016, that is, Container Terminals No.23, 24 and 25 at Reitz and Multi-purpose Terminals D1, D2, D3 and D4 at Dongo Kundu as follows. a) Reitz Area Container Terminal Berth 23  Depth -15m  Length 300m  Pavement Area 270,000m2  Equipment 4 Ship-to-Shore Container Cranes, 8 Rubber Tire Gantry cranes Container Terminal Berth 24  Depth -15m  Length 300m

7-24 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

 Pavement Area 270,000m2  Equipment 4 Ship-to-Shore Container Cranes, 8 Rubber Tire Gantry cranes Container Terminal Berth 25  Depth -15m  Length 300m  Pavement Area 270,000m2  Access Road 4 lanes 1,500m  Equipment 4 Ship-to-Shore Container Cranes, 8 Rubber Tire Gantry cranes b) Dongo Kundu Area Multi-purpose Terminal D1  Depth -14m  Length 300m  Pavement Area 285,000m2 Multi-purpose Terminal D2  Depth -14m  Length 300m  Pavement Area 285,000m2  Equipment 2 Bucket Unloaders Multi-purpose Terminal D3  Depth -14m  Length 300m  Pavement Area 285,000m2  Equipment 2 Bucket Unloaders Multi-purpose Terminal D4  Depth -14m  Length 300m  Pavement Area 75,000m2  Access Road 2 lanes 800m  Equipment 2 Bucket Unloader Two alternatives are set for the project as shown in Table 7.1.18, and the implementing schedules as shown in Table 7.1.19 and Table 7.1.20.

Table 7.1.18 Development Alternatives Terminal Case-1 Case-2 2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 Reitz Container No.23 Container No.24 Container No.25 Dongo Kundu Multi-purpose D1 Multi-purpose D2 Multi-purpose D3 Multi-purpose D4

7-25 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.19 Development Schedule (Case-1)

Terminal Location Cargo Dimension Stage Mill.US$ 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

23 Reitz Container 300m x -15m Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 150.2 37.6 37.5 37.5 37.5

Equipment 48.0 16.0 32.0

Design 5.5 5.5 Dongo Multi Tender 0.5 D1 300m x -14m 0.5 Kundu Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 168.7 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 Dongo Multi D2 300m x -14 m Supervision 8.0 Kundu 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Construction 168.7 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2

Equipment 24.0 8.0 16.0

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

24 Reitz Container 300m x -15m Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 150.6 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7

Equipment 48.0 16.0 32.0

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

25 Reitz Container 300m x -15m Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 163.3 40.8 40.8 40.8 40.9

Equipment 48.0 16.0 32.0 T O T A L 1,041.5 0.0 5.5 11.5 45.1 127.9 128.5 152.3 137.2 0.5 39.7 40.0 61.4 72.2 42.8 43.1 59.0 74.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table 7.1.20 Development Schedule (Case-2)

Terminal Location Cargo Dimension Stage Mill.US$ 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

23 Reitz Container 300m x -15m Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 150.2 37.6 37.6 37.5 37.5

Equipment 48.0 16.0 32.0

Design 5.5 5.5 Dongo Multi Tender 0.5 D1 300m x -14m 0.5 Kundu Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 168.7 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 Dongo Multi D2 300m x -14 m Supervision 8.0 Kundu 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Construction 168.7 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2

Equipment 24.0 8.0 16.0

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

24 Reitz Container 300m x -15m Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 150.6 37.7 37.7 37.6 37.6

Equipment 48.0 16.0 32.0

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

25 Reitz Container 300m x -15m Supervision 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Construction 163.3 40.9 40.8 40.8 40.8

Equipment 48.0 16.0 32.0

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 Dongo Multi D3 300m x -14m Supervision 8.0 Kundu 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Construction 121.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4

Equipment 24.0 8.0 16.0

Design 5.5 5.5

Tender 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 Dongo Multi D4 300m x -14m Supervision 6.0 Kundu 2.0 2.0 2.0 Construction 78.4 26.1 26.1 26.2

Equipment 24.0 8.0 16.0 T O T A L 1,316.2 0.0 5.5 11.5 45.1 127.9 134.1 152.8 169.5 38.6 80.7 116.8 97.6 116.3 42.9 43.1 59.0 74.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(4) Expenses a) Initial Investment Costs Initial investment cost for the terminals are shown in Table 7.1.21.

7-26 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.21 Initial Investment Cost for Each Terminal '000 USD

Berth No.23 No.24 No.25 D1 D2 D3 D4 Depth -15m -15m -15m -14m -14m -14m -14m Length 300m 300m 300m 300m 300m 300m 300m Cargo Container Container Container Multi Multi Multi Multi General Requirement 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Quay Wall 16,651 15,465 15,905 19,164 15,350 14,547 15,209 Reclamation 31,850 33,150 37,050 15,600 12,350 13,650 7,150 Soil Improvement 12,600 12,600 12,600 14,400 5,400 9,000 4,500 Revetment 1,760 1,920 1,120 1,280 1,520 1,120 400 Dredging 6,750 6,750 6,750 39,120 59,730 9,750 4,875 Pavement 18,900 18,900 18,900 19,950 19,950 19,950 5,250 Building 8,176 8,203 8,557 7,039 5,457 5,827 0 Access Road 0 0 7,500 0 0 0 4,000 Other Civil Works 8,176 8,203 8,557 7,039 5,457 5,827 3,251 Utility Works 8,176 8,203 8,557 7,039 5,457 5,827 0 Subtotal 143,039 143,394 155,496 160,631 160,671 115,498 74,635 Contingency (5%) 7,152 7,170 7,775 8,032 8,034 5,775 3,732 Total 150,191 150,564 163,271 168,663 168,705 121,273 78,367 Cargo Handling Equipment 48,000 48,000 48,000 0 24,000 24,000 24,000 Design, Tender & Supervision 14,500 14,500 14,500 14,000 14,500 14,500 14,000 Grand Total 212,691 213,064 225,771 182,663 207,205 159,773 116,867

After full depreciation of the facilities, same amount of costs are required for re-construction. Depreciation period of basic infrastructure and cargo handling equipment are 40 years and 15 years, respectively. b) Personnel and Administration Expenses Personnel costs required for managing container, vehicle and grain terminals are shown in Table 7.1.22 and Table 7.1.23. Administration expense is estimated to be 20% of personnel expense c) Operation Expense Operation cost is estimated to be 7.15% of initial costs of the cargo handling equipment. d) Maintenance and Repair Expenses Maintenance and repair expenses are estimated to be 1% of initial costs of the infrastructure and 3% of initial costs of the cargo handling equipment. Moreover, the basin in the project requires maintenance dredging due to sedimentation; dredging costs amount to 2.8 million USD every 5 years for Reitz Terminals No.23, No.24 and No.25 each, and 5 million USD every 5 years for Dongo Kundu Terminals D1, D2 ,D3 and D4 each. e) Concession Fee Under PPP (Public-Private Partnership) scheme, concession fees are paid to a public sector from private sectors. The fees are paid for getting exclusive development licenses, and/or exclusive use of land, infrastructures, facilities, equipment, etc. From a standpoint of a public sector, these fees are collected as revenues. The details are explained in 7.2.1 “Study of Public-private Cooperation for the Development”.

7-27 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.22 Personnel Cost for Container Terminal No.23, No.24, No.25 and Multi-Purpose Terminal D1 Salary/Mo. Cost/Year Nos (USD) (USD) Administration Manager 3 5,417 195,012 Staff 16 3,250 624,000 Operation Manager 1 8,167 98,004 Assistant Manager 2 5,417 130,008 Chief 5 4,550 273,000 Staff 74 3,250 2,886,000 Maintenance/Repair Manager 3 5,417 195,012 Mechanics/Electician 162 3,250 6,318,000 Labor Staff Manager 1 5,042 60,504 Chief 3 4,550 163,800 Gate Inspector 43 1,558 803,928 Boss/Superviser 54 2,333 1,511,784 CHE Driver 352 2,058 8,692,992 Yard Clerrk 54 2,058 1,333,584 Lasher 216 1,333 3,455,136 989 26,740,764

Table 7.1.23 Personnel Cost for Multi-Purpose Terminal D2, D3 and D4 Salary/Mo. Cost/Year Nos (USD) (USD) Administration Manager 3 5,417 195,012 Staff 5 3,250 195,000 Operation Manager 1 8,167 98,004 Assistant Manager 2 5,417 130,008 Chief 2 4,550 109,200 Staff 30 3,250 1,170,000 Maintenance/Repair Manager 1 5,417 65,004 Mechanics/Electician 50 3,250 1,950,000 Labor Staff Manager 1 5,042 60,504 Chief 3 4,550 163,800 Boss/Superviser 20 2,333 559,920 Yard Clerrk 20 2,058 493,920 138 5,190,372

7-28 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

(5) Revenues a) Cargo Handling Volume and Ship Calls Cargo handling volume and Ship calls planed at the each target terminal are shown in Table 7.1.24 and Table 7.1.25

Table 7.1.24 Cargo Handling Volume at the Target Terminals Terminal No.23, 24 & 25 D1 D2 D3 & 4 Cargo Container Vehicle Grain Clinker / Coal '000 TEU '000 ton '000 ton '000 ton

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 852

2023 91 911 3,933 2024 233 973 4,215 2025 355 1,025 4,497 2026 476 1,079 4,838 7,567 2027 603 1,135 5,179 7,993 2028 729 1,194 5,521 8,437 2029 866 1,255 5,862 8,897 2030 1,010 1,318 6,203 9,376 2031 1,124 1,367 6,575 9,750 2032 1,242 1,418 6,947 10,135 2033 1,363 1,471 7,319 10,533 2034 1,489 1,524 7,691 10,932 2035 1,624 1,580 8,063 11,361 2036 1,624 1,636 8,381 11,781 2037 1,624 1,692 8,699 12,201 2038 1,624 1,748 9,000 12,621 2039 1,624 1,804 9,000 13,041 2040 1,624 1,860 9,000 13,461 2041 1,624 1,916 9,000 13,881 2042 1,624 1,972 9,000 14,301 2043 1,624 2,028 9,000 14,721 2044 1,624 2,084 9,000 15,141 2045 1,624 2,140 9,000 15,561 2046 1,624 2,196 9,000 15,981 2047 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2048 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2049 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2050 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2051 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2052 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2053 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2054 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000 2055 1,624 2,220 9,000 16,000

7-29 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.25 Number of Ship Calls at the Target Terminals Terminal No.23, 24 & 25 D1 D2 D3 & D4 Cargo Container Vehicle Grain Clinker/Coal 30,000DWT - 55,000DWT 55,000DWT Av. Ship Size 15,000GT 15,000GT 33,000GT 33,000GT Av. Handling 2,000TEU 30,000ton 50,000ton 50,000ton Volume 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28

2023 46 30 79 2024 117 32 84 2025 178 34 90 2026 238 36 97 151 2027 302 38 104 160 2028 365 40 110 169 2029 433 42 117 178 2030 505 44 124 188 2031 562 46 132 195 2032 621 47 139 203 2033 682 49 146 211 2034 745 51 154 219 2035 812 53 161 227 2036 812 55 168 236 2037 812 56 174 244 2038 812 58 180 252 2039 812 60 180 261 2040 812 62 180 269 2041 812 64 180 278 2042 812 66 180 286 2043 812 68 180 294 2044 812 69 180 303 2045 812 71 180 311 2046 812 73 180 320 2047 812 74 180 320 2048 812 74 180 320 2049 812 74 180 320 2050 812 74 180 320 2051 812 74 180 320 2052 812 74 180 320 2053 812 74 180 320 2054 812 74 180 320 2055 812 74 180 320 b) Tariff Port dues and cargo handling fees to be collected are shown in Table 7.1.26 and Table 7.1.27.

7-30 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.26 Dues Mooring Service 3 /100GT mooring/unmooring Light Dues 5 /100GT call Port & Harbour Dues 12 /100GT call Dockage Fee 0.24 /m/hour Security Dues 3 /100GT call

Table 7.1.27 Cargo Handling Fees Stevedoring Fee Conventional 7 /ton

Ro Ro 5.5 /ton

Motor Vehicle 5.5 /ton

Dry/Liquid Bulk (via conveyors) 1 /ton

Container Handling 20' 90 /move Cellular Vessel 40' 135 /move Wharfage Vehicle 5 /ton

Dry Bulk (via conveyors) 2 /ton

20' 60 /unit Container Full 40' 90 /unit 20' 20 /unit Container Empty 40' 30 /unit Shorehandling Bulk (Import) 7.5 /ton

Bulk (Export) 6 /ton

20' 90 /unit Container Full (Import) 40' 135 /unit 20' 45 /unit Container Full (Export) 40' 68 /unit 20' 20 /unit Container Empty 40' 30 /unit Stevedoring: transfer or movement of cargo between the vessel and the quay or the next mode of transportation Shorehandling: handling, transfer or removal of cargo to/from the quay or jetty and the transit shed, warehouses or stacking yard Wharfage: charge raised on all cargo passing over quay, wharves, jetties and buoys except Transhipment cargo which is exempt c) Port Service Revenue Port service revenues can be calculated using the tariff and the demand as shown in Table 7.1.28, Table 7.1.29 to Table 7.1.35

7-31 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.28 Revenue: Dues and Mooring service at No.23, 24 & 25 Ship Size: 15,000GT, LOA: 200m, Mooring Hours: 24hours '000 USD

Port & Dockage Security Mooring Year Calls Light Due Subtotal Harbor Due Fee Due Service 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 46 35 83 53 21 191 41 2024 117 88 211 135 53 486 105 2025 178 134 320 205 80 739 160 2026 238 179 428 274 107 988 214 2027 302 227 544 348 136 1,254 272 2028 365 274 657 420 164 1,515 329 2029 433 325 779 499 195 1,798 390 2030 505 379 909 582 227 2,097 455 2031 562 422 1,012 647 253 2,333 506 2032 621 466 1,118 715 279 2,578 559 2033 682 512 1,228 786 307 2,832 614 2034 745 559 1,341 858 335 3,093 671 2035 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2036 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2037 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2038 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2039 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2040 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2041 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2042 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2043 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2044 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2045 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2046 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2047 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2048 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2049 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2050 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2051 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2052 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2053 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2054 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731 2055 812 609 1,462 935 365 3,371 731

7-32 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.29 Revenue: Dues and Mooring service at D1 Ship Size: 30,000GT, LOA: 200m, Mooring Hours: 24hours '000USD

Port & Dockage Security Mooring Year Calls Light Due Subtotal Harbor Due Fee Due Service 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022 28 46 111 32 28 217 55 2023 30 50 119 35 30 233 59 2024 32 53 127 37 32 248 63 2025 34 56 135 39 34 264 67 2026 36 59 143 41 36 279 71 2027 38 63 150 44 38 295 75 2028 40 66 158 46 40 310 79 2029 42 69 166 48 42 326 83 2030 44 73 174 51 44 341 87 2031 46 76 182 53 46 357 91 2032 47 78 186 54 47 364 93 2033 49 81 194 56 49 380 97 2034 51 84 202 59 50 395 101 2035 53 87 210 61 52 411 105 2036 55 91 218 63 54 426 109 2037 56 92 222 65 55 434 111 2038 58 96 230 67 57 450 115 2039 60 99 238 69 59 465 119 2040 62 102 246 71 61 481 123 2041 64 106 253 74 63 496 127 2042 66 109 261 76 65 512 131 2043 68 112 269 78 67 527 135 2044 69 114 273 79 68 535 137 2045 71 117 281 82 70 550 141 2046 73 120 289 84 72 566 145 2047 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2048 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2049 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2050 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2051 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2052 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2053 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2054 74 122 293 85 73 574 147 2055 74 122 293 85 73 574 147

7-33 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.30 Revenue: Dues and Mooring service at D2 Ship Size: 33,000GT, LOA: 210m, Mooring Hours: 40hours '000USD

Port & Dockage Security Mooring Year Calls Light Due Subtotal Harbor Due Fee Due Service 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 79 130 311 159 78 678 156 2024 84 139 334 170 83 726 167 2025 90 148 356 181 89 775 178 2026 97 160 383 195 96 834 192 2027 104 171 410 209 103 892 205 2028 110 182 437 223 109 951 219 2029 117 193 464 236 116 1,010 232 2030 124 205 491 250 123 1,069 246 2031 132 217 521 265 130 1,133 260 2032 139 229 550 280 138 1,197 275 2033 146 242 580 295 145 1,261 290 2034 154 254 609 310 152 1,325 305 2035 161 266 639 325 160 1,389 319 2036 168 277 664 338 166 1,444 332 2037 174 287 689 351 172 1,499 344 2038 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2039 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2040 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2041 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2042 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2043 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2044 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2045 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2046 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2047 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2048 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2049 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2050 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2051 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2052 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2053 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2054 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356 2055 180 297 713 363 178 1,551 356

7-34 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.31 Revenue: Dues and Mooring service at D3 & D4 Ship Size: 33,000GT, LOA: 210m, Mooring Hours: 25 hours '000USD

Port & Dockage Security Mooring Year Calls Light Due sub total Harbor Due Fee Due Service 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026 151 250 599 191 150 1,190 300 2027 160 264 633 201 158 1,256 317 2028 169 278 668 213 167 1,326 334 2029 178 294 705 224 176 1,399 352 2030 188 309 743 236 186 1,474 371 2031 195 322 772 246 193 1,533 386 2032 203 334 803 255 201 1,593 401 2033 211 348 834 265 209 1,656 417 2034 219 361 866 275 216 1,719 433 2035 227 375 900 286 225 1,786 450 2036 236 389 933 297 233 1,852 467 2037 244 403 966 307 242 1,918 483 2038 252 416 1,000 318 250 1,984 500 2039 261 430 1,033 329 258 2,050 516 2040 269 444 1,066 339 267 2,116 533 2041 278 458 1,099 350 275 2,182 550 2042 286 472 1,133 360 283 2,248 566 2043 294 486 1,166 371 291 2,314 583 2044 303 500 1,199 382 300 2,380 600 2045 311 514 1,232 392 308 2,446 616 2046 320 527 1,266 403 316 2,512 633 2047 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2048 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2049 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2050 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2051 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2052 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2053 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2054 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634 2055 320 528 1,267 403 317 2,515 634

7-35 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.32 Revenue: Cargo Handling at No.23, 24 & 25 (Container) '000USD

Handling Stevedoring Wharfage Shorehandling Year Volume 20' 40' 20' 20' 40' 40' 20' 20' 20' 40' 40' 40' Total '000TEU Full Empty Full Empty Full(Im) Full(ex) Empty Full(Im) Full(ex) Empty 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 233 7,130 10,380 3,215 513 4,089 944 3,565 629 513 5,190 475 944 37,586 2025 355 10,863 15,815 4,899 781 6,230 1,438 5,432 959 781 7,908 724 1,438 57,267 2026 476 14,566 21,206 6,569 1,047 8,354 1,928 7,283 1,285 1,047 10,603 971 1,928 76,786 2027 603 18,452 26,864 8,321 1,327 10,583 2,442 9,226 1,628 1,327 13,432 1,230 2,442 97,273 2028 729 22,307 32,477 10,060 1,604 12,794 2,952 11,154 1,968 1,604 16,238 1,487 2,952 117,599 2029 866 26,500 38,580 11,951 1,905 15,198 3,507 13,250 2,338 1,905 19,290 1,767 3,507 139,699 2030 1,010 30,906 44,996 13,938 2,222 17,726 4,091 15,453 2,727 2,222 22,498 2,060 4,091 162,928 2031 1,124 34,394 50,074 15,511 2,473 19,726 4,552 17,197 3,035 2,473 25,037 2,293 4,552 181,318 2032 1,242 38,005 55,331 17,140 2,732 21,797 5,030 19,003 3,353 2,732 27,666 2,534 5,030 200,353 2033 1,363 41,708 60,722 18,809 2,999 23,921 5,520 20,854 3,680 2,999 30,361 2,781 5,520 219,872 2034 1,489 45,563 66,335 20,548 3,276 26,132 6,030 22,782 4,020 3,276 33,167 3,038 6,030 240,198 2035 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2036 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2037 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2038 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2039 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2040 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2041 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2042 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2043 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2044 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2045 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2046 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2047 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2048 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2049 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2050 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2051 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2052 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2053 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2054 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976 2055 1,624 49,694 72,349 22,411 3,573 28,501 6,577 24,847 4,385 3,573 36,175 3,313 6,577 261,976

7-36 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.33 Revenue: Cargo Handling at D1 (Vehicle) '000USD

Handling Shorehandling Stevedoring Wharfage Year Volume Import TOTAL '000ton 5.5USD/t 7.5USD/t 5USD/t 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 852 4,686 6,390 4,260 15,336 2023 911 5,011 6,833 4,555 16,398 2024 973 5,352 7,298 4,865 17,514 2025 1,025 5,638 7,688 5,125 18,450 2026 1,079 5,935 8,093 5,395 19,422 2027 1,135 6,243 8,513 5,675 20,430 2028 1,194 6,567 8,955 5,970 21,492 2029 1,255 6,903 9,413 6,275 22,590 2030 1,318 7,249 9,885 6,590 23,724 2031 1,367 7,519 10,253 6,835 24,606 2032 1,418 7,799 10,635 7,090 25,524 2033 1,471 8,091 11,033 7,355 26,478 2034 1,524 8,382 11,430 7,620 27,432 2035 1,580 8,690 11,850 7,900 28,440 2036 1,636 8,998 12,270 8,180 29,448 2037 1,692 9,306 12,690 8,460 30,456 2038 1,748 9,614 13,110 8,740 31,464 2039 1,804 9,922 13,530 9,020 32,472 2040 1,860 10,230 13,950 9,300 33,480 2041 1,916 10,538 14,370 9,580 34,488 2042 1,972 10,846 14,790 9,860 35,496 2043 2,028 11,154 15,210 10,140 36,504 2044 2,084 11,462 15,630 10,420 37,512 2045 2,140 11,770 16,050 10,700 38,520 2046 2,196 12,078 16,470 10,980 39,528 2047 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2048 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2049 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2050 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2051 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2052 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2053 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2054 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960 2055 2,220 12,210 16,650 11,100 39,960

7-37 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.34 Revenue: Cargo Handling at D2 (Wheat, via conveyor) '000USD

Handling Stevedoring Shorehandling Wharfage via Year Volume via conveyor Import conveyor TOTAL '000ton 1USD/t 7.5USD/t 2USD/t 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 3,933 3,933 0 7,866 11,799 2024 4,215 4,215 0 8,430 12,645 2025 4,497 4,497 0 8,994 13,491 2026 4,838 4,838 0 9,676 14,514 2027 5,179 5,179 0 10,358 15,537 2028 5,521 5,521 0 11,042 16,563 2029 5,862 5,862 0 11,724 17,586 2030 6,203 6,203 0 12,406 18,609 2031 6,575 6,575 0 13,150 19,725 2032 6,947 6,947 0 13,894 20,841 2033 7,319 7,319 0 14,638 21,957 2034 7,691 7,691 0 15,382 23,073 2035 8,063 8,063 0 16,126 24,189 2036 8,381 8,381 0 16,762 25,143 2037 8,699 8,699 0 17,398 26,097 2038 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2039 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2040 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2041 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2042 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2043 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2044 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2045 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2046 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2047 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2048 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2049 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2050 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2051 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2052 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2053 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2054 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000 2055 9,000 9,000 0 18,000 27,000

7-38 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.35 Revenue: Cargo Handling at D3 & D4 (Clinker/Coal, via conveyor) '000USD

Handling Stevedoring Shorehandling Wharfage via Year Volume via conveyor Import conveyor TOTAL '000ton 1USD/t 7.5USD/t 2USD/t 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 7,567 7,567 0 15,134 22,701 2027 7,993 7,993 0 15,986 23,979 2028 8,437 8,437 0 16,874 25,311 2029 8,897 8,897 0 17,794 26,691 2030 9,376 9,376 0 18,752 28,128 2031 9,750 9,750 0 19,500 29,250 2032 10,135 10,135 0 20,270 30,405 2033 10,533 10,533 0 21,066 31,599 2034 10,932 10,932 0 21,864 32,796 2035 11,361 11,361 0 22,722 34,083 2036 11,781 11,781 0 23,562 35,343 2037 12,201 12,201 0 24,402 36,603 2038 12,621 12,621 0 25,242 37,863 2039 13,041 13,041 0 26,082 39,123 2040 13,461 13,461 0 26,922 40,383 2041 13,881 13,881 0 27,762 41,643 2042 14,301 14,301 0 28,602 42,903 2043 14,721 14,721 0 29,442 44,163 2044 15,141 15,141 0 30,282 45,423 2045 15,561 15,561 0 31,122 46,683 2046 15,981 15,981 0 31,962 47,943 2047 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2048 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2049 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2050 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2051 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2052 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2053 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2054 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000 2055 16,000 16,000 0 32,000 48,000

7-39 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

(6) Donor Financing Referring to fund raising cases of other port development, it is assumed that 90% of the total project total and the remaining are financed by soft loans and the domestic fund respectively in this analysis; the interest rates are assumed as follows;

Fund Rate Ratio JICA 2% 65% GOK 7% 25% Domestic 20% 10%

The weighted-average interest rate can be calculated to be 5.1% as an approximate criterion for the analysis. (7) FIRR a) Base Case FIRRs of the development alternatives, Case-1 and Case-2 (see Table 7.1.18, Table 7.1.19 and Table 7.1.20) are calculated as shown in Table 7.1.36 and Table 7.1.37. The results are 9.7% and 8.9% for Case-1 and Case-2, respectively.

7-40 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.36 FIRR for Case-1

'000 USD Expenses Revenue R-E Case-1 Equipment Maintenance R-E Civil Works Management E Total Dues Handling Mooring R Total PNV inc. replace / Repair 2016 5.5 5.5 0.0 -5.5 -5.5 2017 11.5 11.5 0.0 -11.5 -10.5 2018 45.1 45.1 0.0 -45.1 -37.5 2019 127.9 127.9 0.0 -127.9 -96.9 2020 128.5 128.5 0.0 -128.5 -88.7 2021 128.3 24.0 152.3 0.0 -152.3 -95.9 2022 89.2 48.0 6.2 1.7 145.1 0.2 15.3 0.1 15.6 -129.5 -74.3 2023 0.5 0.0 49.7 7.0 57.2 1.1 42.9 0.3 44.2 -13.0 -6.8 2024 39.7 0.0 49.7 7.0 96.4 1.5 67.7 0.3 69.5 -26.9 -12.8 2025 40.0 0.0 49.7 7.0 96.7 1.8 89.2 0.4 91.4 -5.3 -2.3 2026 45.4 16.0 49.7 12.0 123.1 2.1 110.7 0.8 113.6 -9.5 -3.8 2027 40.2 32.0 49.7 14.8 136.7 2.4 133.2 0.9 136.6 -0.2 -0.1 2028 42.8 0.0 85.1 10.0 137.9 2.8 155.7 1.0 159.4 21.5 7.1 2029 43.1 0.0 85.1 10.0 138.2 3.1 179.9 1.1 184.1 45.8 13.8 2030 43.0 16.0 85.1 10.0 154.1 3.5 205.3 1.2 209.9 55.8 15.3 2031 42.9 32.0 85.1 15.0 175.0 3.8 225.6 1.2 230.7 55.7 13.9 2032 0.0 120.6 23.7 144.3 4.1 246.7 1.3 252.2 107.9 24.5 2033 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 4.5 268.3 1.4 274.2 140.5 29.1 2034 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 4.8 290.7 1.5 297.0 163.4 30.9 2035 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.2 314.6 1.6 321.4 187.7 32.3 2036 24.0 120.6 20.9 165.5 5.2 316.6 1.6 323.4 158.0 24.8 2037 48.0 120.6 23.7 192.3 5.3 318.5 1.7 325.5 133.2 19.1 2038 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.4 320.4 1.7 327.5 193.8 25.3 2039 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.4 321.4 1.7 328.6 194.9 23.2 2040 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.4 322.5 1.8 329.6 196.0 21.2 2041 16.0 120.6 20.9 157.5 5.4 323.5 1.8 330.7 173.2 17.1 2042 32.0 120.6 23.7 176.3 5.4 324.5 1.8 331.7 155.5 14.0 2043 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.4 325.5 1.9 332.8 199.1 16.3 2044 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.5 326.5 1.9 333.8 200.2 15.0 2045 16.0 120.6 13.1 149.7 5.5 327.5 1.9 334.9 185.2 12.6 2046 32.0 120.6 20.9 173.5 5.5 328.5 1.9 335.9 162.4 10.1 2047 0.0 120.6 23.7 144.3 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 192.1 10.9 2048 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 202.7 10.5 2049 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 202.7 9.5 2050 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 202.7 8.7 2051 24.0 120.6 20.9 165.5 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 170.9 6.7 2052 48.0 120.6 23.7 192.3 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 144.1 5.1 2053 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 202.7 6.6 2054 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 202.7 6.0 2055 0.0 120.6 13.1 133.7 5.5 328.9 1.9 336.4 202.7 5.5

TOTAL 873.60 0.0

discount rate = 9.702 %

7-41 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.1.37 FIRR for Case-2

'000 USD Expenses Revenue R-E Case-2 Equipment Maintenance R-E Civil Works Management E Total Dues Handling Mooring R Total PNV inc. replace / Repair 2016 5.5 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 -5.5 -5.5 2017 11.5 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.0 -11.5 -10.6 2018 45.1 0.0 0.0 45.1 0.0 -45.1 -38.0 2019 127.9 0.0 0.0 127.9 0.0 -127.9 -99.0 2020 134.1 0.0 0.0 134.1 0.0 -134.1 -95.3 2021 128.8 24.0 0.0 0.0 152.8 0.0 -152.8 -99.7 2022 121.5 48.0 6.2 1.7 177.4 0.2 15.3 0.1 15.6 -161.8 -96.9 2023 38.6 0.0 49.7 7.0 95.3 1.1 42.9 0.3 44.2 -51.1 -28.1 2024 72.7 8.0 49.7 7.0 137.4 1.5 67.7 0.3 69.5 -67.9 -34.3 2025 100.8 16.0 49.7 7.0 173.5 1.8 89.2 0.4 91.4 -82.1 -38.1 2026 73.6 24.0 57.6 14.0 169.2 3.3 133.4 0.8 137.5 -31.7 -13.5 2027 68.3 48.0 57.6 16.8 190.7 3.7 157.2 0.9 161.8 -28.9 -11.3 2028 42.9 0.0 101.1 13.4 157.4 4.1 181.0 1.0 186.0 28.7 10.3 2029 43.1 0.0 101.1 13.4 157.6 4.5 206.6 1.1 212.2 54.6 18.0 2030 43.0 16.0 101.1 18.4 178.5 5.0 233.4 1.2 239.5 61.1 18.5 2031 42.8 32.0 101.1 18.4 194.3 5.4 254.9 1.2 261.5 67.2 18.7 2032 0.0 136.5 32.1 168.6 5.7 277.1 1.3 284.2 115.6 29.5 2033 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 6.1 299.9 1.4 307.5 154.4 36.2 2034 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 6.5 323.5 1.5 331.5 178.5 38.4 2035 0.0 136.5 21.5 158.0 7.0 348.7 1.6 357.2 199.2 39.3 2036 24.0 136.5 24.3 184.8 7.1 351.9 1.6 360.6 175.8 31.9 2037 48.0 136.5 32.1 216.6 7.2 355.1 1.7 364.0 147.4 24.5 2038 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 7.4 358.3 1.7 367.4 214.3 32.8 2039 8.0 136.5 16.5 161.0 7.4 360.6 1.7 369.7 208.7 29.3 2040 16.0 136.5 21.5 174.0 7.5 362.8 1.8 372.1 198.1 25.5 2041 24.0 136.5 24.3 184.8 7.6 365.1 1.8 374.5 189.7 22.4 2042 48.0 136.5 32.1 216.6 7.7 367.4 1.8 376.9 160.3 17.4 2043 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 7.8 369.6 1.9 379.3 226.2 22.6 2044 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 7.8 371.9 1.9 381.6 228.6 20.9 2045 16.0 136.5 21.5 174.0 7.9 374.2 1.9 384.0 210.0 17.6 2046 32.0 136.5 24.3 192.8 8.0 376.4 1.9 386.4 193.5 14.9 2047 0.0 136.5 32.1 168.6 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 218.3 15.5 2048 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 233.9 15.2 2049 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 233.9 14.0 2050 0.0 136.5 21.5 158.0 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 228.9 12.6 2051 24.0 136.5 24.3 184.8 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 202.1 10.2 2052 48.0 136.5 32.1 216.6 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 170.3 7.9 2053 0.0 136.5 16.5 153.0 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 233.9 9.9 2054 8.0 136.5 16.5 161.0 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 225.9 8.8 2055 16.0 136.5 21.5 174.0 8.0 376.9 1.9 386.9 212.9 7.6

TOTAL 1,100.20 0.0

discount rate = 8.914 %

7-42 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy b) Sensitivity Analysis There is a possibility that unexpected changes surrounding the project conditions occur in which cost could increase and/or revenue decrease. Accordingly, the FIRRs when cost increases and/or revenue decreases are calculated as follows.

Table 7.1.38 FIRR Variation under Situations expense 10% plus Case Base expense 10% plus revenue 10% minus revenue 10% minus 1 9.7% 8.2% 8.1% 6.5% 2 8.9% 7.4% 7.2% 5.7%

The results show that, even in the worst case scenario, the FIRRs exceed the weighted-average interest rate of assumed loans: 5.1%, and that the both development alternatives are deemed to be financially feasible.

7-43 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

7.2 Development and investment policy

7.2.1 Study of public-private cooperation for the development In this section, financial feasibility of the public sector and private sector(s) is appraised when PPP scheme is introduced to the project implementation. Table 7.2.1 and Table 7.2.2 show demarcation of expenditure and revenue. The private sector(s) should pay a concession fee to the public sector which covers the public sector’s initial investment and management expenses throughout the project life. Two cases with different initiatives of the public sector are prepared for comparing demarcation policies.

Table 7.2.1 Demarcation for PPP Scheme (Case-A) Case-A Public Private Quay Wall Reclamation Dredging Utility Initial Investment Pavement Life Line Cargo Handling Equipment Access Road Building Reclamation Quay Wall Utility Dredging Maintenance & Repair Life Line Cargo Handling Equipment Access Road Building Light Due Mooring Service Port & Harbor Due Stevedoring Revenue Dockage Fee Shorehandling Security Due Wharfage Fixed fee: Repayment for reclamation cost & interest Concession Fee Variable fee: 10% of revenue Tax - 30% Corporate tax

Table 7.2.2 Demarcation for PPP Scheme (Case-B) Case-B Public Private Reclamation Quay Wall Dredging Pavement Building Utility Initial Investment Cargo Handling Equipment Life Line No.23-25: 2 STS & 4 RTG Access Road Cargo Handling Equipment No.23-25: 2 STS & 4 RTG D2: 2 Unloader Reclamation Quay Wall Dredging Pavement Building Maintenance & Repair Utility Cargo Handling Equipment Life Line Access Road Cargo Handling Equipment Light Due Mooring Service Revenue Port & Harbor Due Stevedoring

7-44 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Case-B Public Private Dockage Fee Shorehandling Security Due Wharfage Fixed fee: Repayment for facilities/equipment & interest Concession Fee Variable fee: 10% of revenue Tax - 30% Corporate tax

The fixed part of concession is assumed as follows; One fortieth ( ) of initial investment, plus interest based on GOK loan (7%) for civil works, and one fifteenth ( ) of initial investment, plus interest based on GOK loan (7%) for equipment

7.2.2 Financial studies under PPP scheme (1) FIRR of Each Case In this section, development alternative Case-1 (see Table 7.1.18 and Table 7.1.19) and PPP demarcation policies Case-A and Case-B are selected for the study. The FIRRs of the public sector’s portion and the private sector’s portion for each case are calculated as shown in Table 7.2.3.

Table 7.2.3 FIRRs under PPP Scheme PPP Scheme Case Public Sector Private Sector A 11.6% 6.9% B 7.0% 12.6%

For both PPP schemes, Case-A and Case-B, the private sector’s portions are not appraised as feasible given the city bank interest rate. Soft loans are needed to ensure feasibility of the development implementation under these schemes. Table 7.2.4, Table 7.2.5, Table 7.2.6 and Table 7.2.7 show the calculation processes.

7-45 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.2.4 FIRR of Public Sector under PPP Scheme Case-A

Million USD Expenses Revenue Case-A R-E Equipment Maintenance R-E Public Civil Works Management E Total Dues Lease Fixed Variable R Total PNV inc. replace / Repair 2016 2.0 0 2.0 -2.0 -2.0 2017 4.2 0 4.2 -4.2 -3.7 2018 16.4 0 16.4 -16.4 -13.2 2019 46.5 0 46.5 -46.5 -33.4 2020 46.7 0 46.7 -46.7 -30.1 2021 46.7 0 46.7 -46.7 -26.9 2022 32.4 0.6 33.1 0.2 4.5 1.5 6.3 -26.8 -13.8 2023 0.2 1.8 2.0 1.1 13.7 4.3 19.1 17.2 7.9 2024 14.4 1.8 16.2 1.5 13.4 6.8 21.7 5.5 2.3 2025 14.5 1.8 16.3 1.8 13.2 9.0 23.9 7.6 2.8 2026 16.5 1.8 18.3 2.1 12.9 11.1 26.2 7.9 2.6 2027 14.6 1.8 16.4 2.4 12.7 13.4 28.5 12.1 3.6 2028 15.6 2.3 17.9 2.8 18.8 15.6 37.2 19.3 5.2 2029 15.7 2.3 18.0 3.1 18.4 18.1 39.6 21.6 5.2 2030 15.6 2.3 18.0 3.5 18.1 20.6 42.2 24.2 5.2 2031 15.6 2.3 17.9 3.8 17.7 22.7 44.2 26.3 5.0 2032 2.9 2.9 4.1 24.9 24.8 53.8 50.8 8.8 2033 2.9 2.9 4.5 24.3 26.9 55.7 52.8 8.2 2034 2.9 2.9 4.8 23.8 29.2 57.8 54.9 7.6 2035 2.9 2.9 5.2 23.3 31.6 60.1 57.2 7.1 2036 2.9 2.9 5.2 22.8 31.8 59.8 56.9 6.3 2037 2.9 2.9 5.3 22.3 32.0 59.6 56.7 5.6 2038 2.9 2.9 5.4 21.8 32.2 59.3 56.4 5.0 2039 2.9 2.9 5.4 21.3 32.3 58.9 56.0 4.5 2040 2.9 2.9 5.4 20.8 32.4 58.5 55.6 4.0 2041 2.9 2.9 5.4 20.3 32.5 58.2 55.2 3.5 2042 2.9 2.9 5.4 19.8 32.6 57.8 54.8 3.1 2043 2.9 2.9 5.4 19.2 32.7 57.4 54.5 2.8 2044 2.9 2.9 5.5 18.7 32.8 57.0 54.1 2.5 2045 2.9 2.9 5.5 18.2 32.9 56.6 53.7 2.2 2046 2.9 2.9 5.5 17.7 33.0 56.2 53.3 2.0 2047 2.9 2.9 5.5 17.2 33.0 55.7 52.8 1.7 2048 2.9 2.9 5.5 16.7 33.0 55.2 52.3 1.6 2049 2.9 2.9 5.5 16.2 33.0 54.7 51.8 1.4 2050 2.9 2.9 5.5 15.7 33.0 54.2 51.3 1.2 2051 2.9 2.9 5.5 15.2 33.0 53.7 50.8 1.1 2052 2.9 2.9 5.5 14.7 33.0 53.2 50.3 1.0 2053 2.9 2.9 5.5 14.1 33.0 52.7 49.8 0.9 2054 2.9 2.9 5.5 13.6 33.0 52.2 49.2 0.8 2055 2.9 2.9 5.5 13.1 33.0 51.6 48.7 0.7

TOTAL 317.70 0.0

discount rate = 11.62 %

7-46 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.2.5 FIRR of Private Sector under PPP Scheme Case-A

Million USD Expenses Revenue Case-A Corporate R-E-Tax Equipment Maintenance R-E R-E-Tax Private Civil Works Management Lease Fixed Variable E Total Handling Mooring R Total Tax PNV inc. replace / Repair 2016 3.5 3.5 0.0 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 2017 7.3 7.3 0.0 -7.3 -7.3 -6.8 2018 28.7 28.7 0.0 -28.7 -28.7 -25.1 2019 81.4 81.4 0.0 -81.4 -81.4 -66.6 2020 81.8 81.8 0.0 -81.8 -81.8 -62.6 2021 81.6 24.0 105.6 0.0 -105.6 -105.6 -75.6 2022 56.8 48.0 6.2 1.1 4.5 1.5 118.1 15.3 0.1 15.4 -102.7 -102.7 -68.8 2023 0.3 0.0 49.7 5.3 13.7 4.3 73.3 42.9 0.3 43.1 -30.1 -30.1 -18.9 2024 25.3 0.0 49.7 5.3 13.4 6.8 100.4 67.7 0.3 68.1 -32.4 -32.4 -19.0 2025 25.5 0.0 49.7 5.3 13.2 9.0 102.5 89.2 0.4 89.6 -12.9 -12.9 -7.1 2026 28.9 16.0 49.7 10.3 12.9 11.1 128.9 110.7 0.5 111.2 -17.7 -17.7 -9.1 2027 25.6 32.0 49.7 13.1 12.7 13.4 146.4 133.2 0.6 133.8 -12.6 -12.6 -6.0 2028 27.2 0.0 85.1 7.7 18.8 15.6 154.5 155.7 0.6 156.3 1.8 0.5 1.3 0.6 2029 27.4 0.0 85.1 7.7 18.4 18.1 156.7 179.9 0.7 180.6 23.8 7.2 16.7 7.0 2030 27.4 16.0 85.1 7.7 18.1 20.6 174.8 205.3 0.8 206.0 31.2 9.4 21.8 8.6 2031 27.3 32.0 85.1 12.7 17.7 22.7 197.5 225.6 0.9 226.5 29.1 8.7 20.3 7.5 2032 0.0 120.6 20.7 24.9 24.8 191.0 246.7 0.9 247.6 56.7 17.0 39.7 13.6 2033 0.0 120.6 10.1 24.3 26.9 182.0 268.3 1.0 269.3 87.3 26.2 61.1 19.6 2034 0.0 120.6 10.1 23.8 29.2 183.8 290.7 1.1 291.8 108.0 32.4 75.6 22.7 2035 0.0 120.6 10.1 23.3 31.6 185.7 314.6 1.2 315.8 130.1 39.0 91.1 25.6 2036 24.0 120.6 17.9 22.8 31.8 217.1 316.6 1.2 317.7 100.6 30.2 70.4 18.5 2037 48.0 120.6 20.7 22.3 32.0 243.6 318.5 1.2 319.7 76.1 22.8 53.3 13.1 2038 0.0 120.6 10.1 21.8 32.2 184.7 320.4 1.2 321.6 136.9 41.1 95.9 22.0 2039 0.0 120.6 10.1 21.3 32.3 184.3 321.4 1.2 322.7 138.4 41.5 96.9 20.8 2040 0.0 120.6 10.1 20.8 32.4 183.9 322.5 1.2 323.7 139.8 41.9 97.9 19.7 2041 16.0 120.6 17.9 20.3 32.5 207.3 323.5 1.3 324.7 117.4 35.2 82.2 15.5 2042 32.0 120.6 20.7 19.8 32.6 225.7 324.5 1.3 325.7 100.1 30.0 70.0 12.3 2043 0.0 120.6 10.1 19.2 32.7 182.7 325.5 1.3 326.8 144.1 43.2 100.9 16.6 2044 0.0 120.6 10.1 18.7 32.8 182.3 326.5 1.3 327.8 145.5 43.7 101.9 15.7 2045 16.0 120.6 10.1 18.2 32.9 197.9 327.5 1.3 328.8 131.0 39.3 91.7 13.2 2046 32.0 120.6 17.9 17.7 33.0 221.2 328.5 1.3 329.8 108.6 32.6 76.0 10.2 2047 0.0 120.6 20.7 17.2 33.0 191.6 328.9 1.3 330.3 138.7 41.6 97.1 12.2 2048 0.0 120.6 10.1 16.7 33.0 180.5 328.9 1.4 330.3 149.8 44.9 104.9 12.4 2049 0.0 120.6 10.1 16.2 33.0 180.0 328.9 1.4 330.3 150.3 45.1 105.2 11.6 2050 0.0 120.6 10.1 15.7 33.0 179.5 328.9 1.4 330.3 150.9 45.3 105.6 10.9 2051 24.0 120.6 17.9 15.2 33.0 210.7 328.9 1.4 330.3 119.6 35.9 83.7 8.1 2052 48.0 120.6 20.7 14.7 33.0 237.0 328.9 1.4 330.3 93.3 28.0 65.3 5.9 2053 0.0 120.6 10.1 14.1 33.0 177.9 328.9 1.4 330.3 152.4 45.7 106.7 9.0 2054 0.0 120.6 10.1 13.6 33.0 177.4 328.9 1.4 330.3 152.9 45.9 107.0 8.4 2055 0.0 120.6 10.1 13.1 33.0 176.9 328.9 1.4 330.3 153.4 46.0 107.4 7.9

TOTAL 555.90 0.0

discount rate = 6.912 %

7-47 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.2.6 FIRR of Public Sector under PPP Scheme Case-B

Million USD Expenses Revenue Case-B R-E Equipment Maintenance R-E Public Civil Works Management E Total Dues Lease Fixed Variable R Total PNV inc. replace / Repair 2016 5.2 0.0 5.2 0.0 -5.2 -5.2 2017 10.9 0.0 10.9 0.0 -10.9 -10.2 2018 42.9 0.0 42.9 0.0 -42.9 -37.5 2019 121.6 0.0 121.6 0.0 -121.6 -99.3 2020 122.2 0.0 122.2 0.0 -122.2 -93.2 2021 122.0 16.0 0.0 138.0 0.0 -138.0 -98.4 2022 84.8 32.0 1.6 118.4 0.2 15.3 1.5 17.1 -101.3 -67.5 2023 0.5 0.0 6.1 6.6 1.1 49.0 4.3 54.4 47.8 29.8 2024 37.8 0.0 6.1 43.8 1.5 48.2 6.8 56.4 12.6 7.3 2025 38.0 0.0 6.1 44.1 1.8 47.3 9.0 58.1 14.0 7.6 2026 43.2 6.0 11.1 60.3 2.1 46.5 11.1 59.7 -0.5 -0.3 2027 38.2 16.0 13.9 68.1 2.4 45.7 13.4 61.5 -6.6 -3.1 2028 40.7 0.0 8.2 48.9 2.8 60.9 15.6 79.3 30.4 13.5 2029 41.0 0.0 8.2 49.2 3.1 59.8 18.1 81.0 31.8 13.2 2030 40.9 8.0 8.2 57.1 3.5 58.7 20.6 82.9 25.7 10.0 2031 40.8 16.0 13.2 70.0 3.8 57.7 22.7 84.2 14.1 5.1 2032 0.0 21.1 21.1 4.1 73.8 24.8 102.7 81.6 27.6 2033 0.0 10.5 10.5 4.5 72.4 26.9 103.8 93.3 29.5 2034 0.0 10.5 10.5 4.8 71.1 29.2 105.1 94.6 28.0 2035 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.2 69.8 31.6 106.5 96.0 26.5 2036 16.0 18.3 34.3 5.2 68.4 31.8 105.5 71.2 18.4 2037 32.0 21.1 53.1 5.3 67.1 32.0 104.4 51.3 12.4 2038 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.4 65.8 32.2 103.3 92.8 20.9 2039 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.4 64.4 32.3 102.1 91.6 19.3 2040 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.4 63.1 32.4 100.9 90.4 17.8 2041 8.0 18.3 26.3 5.4 61.8 32.5 99.7 73.4 13.5 2042 16.0 21.1 37.1 5.4 60.4 32.6 98.4 61.3 10.5 2043 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.4 59.1 32.7 97.2 86.7 13.9 2044 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 57.8 32.8 96.0 85.5 12.8 2045 8.0 10.5 18.5 5.5 56.4 32.9 94.8 76.3 10.7 2046 16.0 18.3 34.3 5.5 55.1 33.0 93.6 59.3 7.8 2047 0.0 21.1 21.1 5.5 53.8 33.0 92.3 71.2 8.7 2048 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 52.4 33.0 91.0 80.5 9.2 2049 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 51.1 33.0 89.6 79.1 8.5 2050 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 49.8 33.0 88.3 77.8 7.8 2051 16.0 18.3 34.3 5.5 48.4 33.0 87.0 52.7 4.9 2052 32.0 21.1 53.1 5.5 47.1 33.0 85.6 32.5 2.8 2053 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 45.8 33.0 84.3 73.8 6.0 2054 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 44.4 33.0 83.0 72.5 5.5 2055 0.0 10.5 10.5 5.5 43.1 33.0 81.6 71.1 5.1

TOTAL 830.76 0.0

discount rate = 7.006 %

7-48 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

Table 7.2.7 FIRR of Private Sector under PPP Scheme Case-B

Million USD Expenses Revenue Case-B Corporate R-E-Tax Equipment Maintenance R-E R-E-Tax Private Civil Works Management Lease Fixed Variable E Total Handling Mooring R Total Tax PNV inc. replace / Repair 2016 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2017 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 2018 2.2 2.2 0.0 -2.2 -2.2 -1.7 2019 6.3 6.3 0.0 -6.3 -6.3 -4.4 2020 6.3 6.3 0.0 -6.3 -6.3 -3.9 2021 6.3 8.0 14.3 0.0 -14.3 -14.3 -7.9 2022 4.4 16.0 6.2 0.1 15.3 1.5 43.6 15.3 0.1 15.4 -28.2 -28.2 -13.8 2023 0.0 0.0 49.7 1.0 49.0 4.3 103.9 42.9 0.3 43.1 -60.8 -60.8 -26.5 2024 1.9 0.0 49.7 1.0 48.2 6.8 107.5 67.7 0.3 68.1 -39.5 -39.5 -15.2 2025 2.0 0.0 49.7 1.0 47.3 9.0 108.9 89.2 0.4 89.6 -19.3 -19.3 -6.6 2026 2.2 8.0 49.7 1.0 46.5 11.1 118.5 110.7 0.5 111.2 -7.3 -7.3 -2.2 2027 2.0 16.0 49.7 1.0 45.7 13.4 127.7 133.2 0.6 133.8 6.1 1.8 4.3 1.2 2028 2.1 0.0 85.1 1.8 60.9 15.6 165.5 155.7 0.6 156.3 -9.2 -9.2 -2.2 2029 2.1 0.0 85.1 1.8 59.8 18.1 166.9 179.9 0.7 180.6 13.7 4.1 9.6 2.0 2030 2.1 8.0 85.1 1.8 58.7 20.6 176.4 205.3 0.8 206.0 29.7 8.9 20.8 3.9 2031 2.1 16.0 85.1 1.8 57.7 22.7 185.3 225.6 0.9 226.5 41.2 12.4 28.8 4.8 2032 0.0 120.6 2.6 73.8 24.8 221.7 246.7 0.9 247.6 25.9 7.8 18.2 2.7 2033 0.0 120.6 2.6 72.4 26.9 222.5 268.3 1.0 269.3 46.8 14.0 32.7 4.3 2034 0.0 120.6 2.6 71.1 29.2 223.5 290.7 1.1 291.8 68.3 20.5 47.8 5.6 2035 0.0 120.6 2.6 69.8 31.6 224.5 314.6 1.2 315.8 91.2 27.4 63.9 6.7 2036 8.0 120.6 2.6 68.4 31.8 231.4 316.6 1.2 317.7 86.4 25.9 60.4 5.6 2037 16.0 120.6 2.6 67.1 32.0 238.2 318.5 1.2 319.7 81.5 24.4 57.0 4.7 2038 0.0 120.6 2.6 65.8 32.2 221.1 320.4 1.2 321.6 100.5 30.2 70.4 5.1 2039 0.0 120.6 2.6 64.4 32.3 219.9 321.4 1.2 322.7 102.8 30.8 72.0 4.7 2040 0.0 120.6 2.6 63.1 32.4 218.6 322.5 1.2 323.7 105.0 31.5 73.5 4.2 2041 8.0 120.6 2.6 61.8 32.5 225.4 323.5 1.3 324.7 99.3 29.8 69.5 3.6 2042 16.0 120.6 2.6 60.4 32.6 232.2 324.5 1.3 325.7 93.6 28.1 65.5 3.0 2043 0.0 120.6 2.6 59.1 32.7 214.9 325.5 1.3 326.8 111.8 33.5 78.3 3.2 2044 0.0 120.6 2.6 57.8 32.8 213.7 326.5 1.3 327.8 114.1 34.2 79.9 2.9 2045 8.0 120.6 2.6 56.4 32.9 220.5 327.5 1.3 328.8 108.3 32.5 75.8 2.4 2046 16.0 120.6 2.6 55.1 33.0 227.3 328.5 1.3 329.8 102.6 30.8 71.8 2.0 2047 0.0 120.6 2.6 53.8 33.0 210.0 328.9 1.3 330.3 120.3 36.1 84.2 2.1 2048 0.0 120.6 2.6 52.4 33.0 208.6 328.9 1.4 330.3 121.7 36.5 85.2 1.9 2049 0.0 120.6 2.6 51.1 33.0 207.3 328.9 1.4 330.3 123.0 36.9 86.1 1.7 2050 0.0 120.6 2.6 49.8 33.0 206.0 328.9 1.4 330.3 124.3 37.3 87.0 1.5 2051 8.0 120.6 2.6 48.4 33.0 212.6 328.9 1.4 330.3 117.7 35.3 82.4 1.3 2052 16.0 120.6 2.6 47.1 33.0 219.3 328.9 1.4 330.3 111.0 33.3 77.7 1.1 2053 0.0 120.6 2.6 45.8 33.0 202.0 328.9 1.4 330.3 128.3 38.5 89.8 1.1 2054 0.0 120.6 2.6 44.4 33.0 200.6 328.9 1.4 330.3 129.7 38.9 90.8 1.0 2055 0.0 120.6 2.6 43.1 33.0 199.3 328.9 1.4 330.3 131.0 39.3 91.7 0.9

TOTAL 42.84 0.0

discount rate = 12.625 %

7-49 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy

7.3 Scoping on priority project

7.3.1 Major concerns and benefits

Based on the baseline survey, the possible impacts to be caused by the development plan in the target area are identified. The key findings are described below and the scoping results are shown in Table 7.3.1. (1) Vulnerability and challenges In the Study Area, the following resources and asset are naturally vulnerable against the development.  The coastal line environment including the mangrove forest serves a ground preserving the enriched tidal and marine biodiversity and fishing place where the local people earn their livelihood.  The enclosed creek tends to accumulate the organic substances and nutrients in water and sediment. On the other hand, a number of social challenges for the local communities are identified as follows;  Cutting off of the sea transport between Dongo Kundu and Port Reitz for the access to Port Reitz hospital and other purposes.  Reduction of fishing grounds; BMU (Beach Management Unit) officials in the area claim that their fishing activities are restricted due to the security sea area of KPA resulting in reduction of their income.  Lack of fresh water and roads and food security; From interviews with local residents it has emerged that lack of fresh water is the most pressing challenge. Others were poor roads and transport system as well as famine and drought. (2) Positive impact highlighted The expansion of facilities and functions of Mombasa port has a core role for economic development not only for the coastal area but also for the entire Kenya. At first, the additional development of Mombasa port is required to meet the demand of increasing cargo in the near future. Secondary, it will bring significant economic effects, provide job opportunities and basic infrastructures to local people, and boost up the subordinate developments of Mombasa city. The proposed project will also provide the chance for Mombasa port to be modernized to an eco-friendly port. (3) Adverse environmental impact highlighted a) Clearance of Mangrove forest The coastal line of Dongo Kundu area is almost covered by the Mangrove forest that serves a ground preserving the enriched tidal and marine biodiversity and fishing place where the local people earns their livelihood. The proposed plan will directly clear approximately 36 ha of Mangrove at maximum. It will lead to a significant loss of biodiversity and associated ecological services that include the provision of the products for local communities such as fuel wood and construction materials, fishing ground and breeding ground for offshore organism, as well as the natural barrier/buffer from disaster, tidal wave and carbon storage. The subsequent study shall suggest the sound mitigation program including the Mangrove reforestation plan. In order to compensate the potential loss, the site for Mangrove restoration needs to be selected in the proper way according to the result of impact assessment to restore the original function. b) Direct and indirect impact on ecosystems The marine and coastal natural resources in the Study Area serve as the various ecosystem service as represented by the Mangrove. Dredging works and disposing of dredged materials, construction of piers, wharves, revetments and other water-side structures, and erosion or sediment may lead to short and long- term impacts on aquatic and shoreline habitats. Among others, the selection of method and

7-50 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy site for disposal of dredged material will require the careful attention. Also, the changes in hydrological and physical condition such as water flow, bathymetry feature and sedimentation patterns and deterioration of environmental quality such as water and sediment quality would collectively generate significant impacts on coastal and marine ecosystem services. The representative impact and response flow are shown in Figure 7.3.1.

Construction of port facility Development

Changes in Changes in area of shallow Decrease in Increase in landform bottom, tidal land and water surface revetment seaweed bed Direct impact Changes in Changes in water flow wave Hydrological situation

Changes in waterline Indirect impact Changes in water and Habitat Topo and sediment quality changes Geography

Changes in Social biodiversity impacts Impact Water Sediment item quality quality Flora and fauna

Figure 7.3.1 Impact and Response Flow Source: JICA Team c) Pollution control for port construction and operation The dredging and other construction work will involve the short-term deterioration of water quality in terms of turbidity and transparency as well as deterioration of air quality and noise and vibration. In the long term, the operation of expanded port facilities will increase the burden of pollution and any other risk such as an oil spill, air emissions from a ship and transportation of cargo, accidental leakage of gasses and harmful substances, explosion, generation of oily wastes, sewage and garbage, effluent from water front activities, and so on. The cumulative pollution impact also needs to be assessed considering the other industries and waterfront activities coming to the area surrounding of Mombasa port. The semi-closed water area of creek tends to accumulate the pollutants and nutrients and accelerate the decrease in self-purification capacity. d) Invasive alien species The introduction of alien species is one of the considerable threats to the marine habitat in Mombasa port. Kenya has acceded to the International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments (IMO BWM Convention) which will enter into force 12 months after ratification by 30 States, representing 35 % of world merchant shipping tonnage while currently it was ratified by 44 States representing 32.86 % of the world’s shipping as of March 2015. The IMO BWM Convention specifies the effluent standards of ballast water quality and locations where the ballast water can be discharged. Also all ships will be required to carry out ballast water management

7-51 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy procedures once it is in force. The installation of treatment facilities of ballast water is also recommended in the implementation plan of Green Port Policy. In the survey of ESIA for port development, the update of inventory survey of alien species in Mombasa port is suggested. (4) Social issues highlighted a) Involuntary resettlement This study confirmed the 19 HH of informal settlers locating in the Study Area of Dongo Kundu based on the demographic survey result in 2014 (MOIED, SEA for Master Plan for the development of Mombasa SEZ). The port development project in Dongo Kundu will relate to the resettlement of those people and might accompany some more relocation for the people on the planned access road depending on the scope of project. A RAP shall be prepared in line with the international guideline such as Word Bank’s operational policy and the resettlement issue needs to be handled adequately. Since the affected people by this port development project is included in the target of RAP for the entire area of Dongo Kundu and the RAP is currently prepared by KPA, it is required for the subsequent study to continue to monitor its progress. The RAP also should take into account the livelihood restoration program for the project affected people including the fishermen in the area given their high vulnerability and poverty. On the other hand, the port expansion in Port Reitz will not need the resettlement since the port area will be newly reclaimed. b) Damage to fishery Considering the abundant fishery resources and existing artisanal fishing activities in the Port Reitz creek, the development of Port Reitz creek will affect on the livelihood of people related for long periods. The construction work will keep the fisheries out of the area. The expansion of reclamation and ship navigation route will deprive the fisheries of their ground including the landing site. The change in hydrological and geological characteristics of area and deterioration of natural resources mentioned above will result in the decrease in fish catch and income of fisheries. Even though KPA specifies the security area in Mombasa port, fisheries would continue to come to their ground on the basis of their fishery right. The local BMUs already recognizes the necessity of shift to the deep sea fishing and other alternative livelihood because some parts of their ground have been threaten by the past or on-going project. The necessary mitigation measures may include; procurement of equipment such as a deep-sea fishing vessel and gear, development of new landing site, technical training and other assistance for their transformation to deep fishery as well as to an aquaculture industry, eco-tourism and any other alternative livelihood. The compensation and assistance program for the affected fisheries shall be developed that may be included in the RAP for Dongo Kundu area and separately prepared for Port Reitz area. Another consideration will be necessary for the accessibility of fishing vessels between the inner part of the Port Reitz creek and mouth of creek for deep-sea fishing. While the new fishing jetty in Tsunza will be developed in the western shore of Port Reitz, the access of fishing vessels in the KPA’s port area is not allowed because of the security reason. Although the provision of the shipping route for fishing vessels has some difficulties, this issue requires further discussion between the affected fisheries and relevant authorities. c) Sacred place with social and cultural values Two Kayas covered by the construction area in Dongo Kundu need to be relocated. The access of another Kaya which is close to the planned berths would be interfered. In order to conserve or relocate those Kayas, consultation with Kaya elder as well as local community and NMK is required. d) Risk in occupational health and safety The construction and operation of port-related facilities will need to secure the occupational health and safety. Among others, dust from transportations of dirty cargo directly affects human health especially of the workers at the port. It is observed it in the existing port facilities that the ship operations and truck loading of clinker as well as soda ash create the significant amount of dust. In the case that dry cargo is handled in the new multipurpose terminal in Dongo Kundu, adequate measures of dust control

7-52 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 7. Implementation of the Port Development and its Investment Policy such as installation of new facilities with enclosed conveyors or vacuum suction systems or secured provision of safety gears for workers shall be respected.

7.3.2 Scoping matrix

The anticipated social and environmental impacts are identified in the scoping stage as shown in Table 7.3.1. The analysis was conducted for the detail design stage (DS), construction stage (CS) and operation stage (OS) in both the northern (Port Reitz) and southern (Dongo Kundu) Study Area. The construction stage includes the dredging work and port operation stage involves the ship traffic, cargo operation and other relevant waterfront industry and activities.

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8. Port Administration and Management

8.1 Government ministries In 1957, the first direct elections for Africans to the Legislative Council took place and those elected increased the people's agitation for Jomo Kenyatta's release from detention. In 1962, Kenyatta was released and became Kenya's first Prime Minister when Kenya finally gained independence on December 12, 1963. The following year, Kenya became a Republic with Kenyatta as its first President. In the same year, Kenya joined the British Commonwealth. Current government ministries are shown in the table below.

Table 8.1.1 Ministries of Kenya 1 Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government 2 Ministry of Devolution and Planning 3 The National Treasury 4 Ministry of Defense 5 Ministry of Foreign Affairs 6 Ministry of Education 7 Ministry of Health 8 Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure 9 Ministry of Information, Communication and Technology 10 Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resource 11 Ministry of Land, Housing and Urban Development 12 Ministry of Sports, Culture and the Arts 13 Ministry of Labor, Social Security and Services 14 Ministry of Energy and Petroleum 15 Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries 16 Ministry of Industrialization and Enterprise Development 17 Ministry of East Africa Affairs, Commerce, and Tourism 18 Ministry of Mining (From the official web site of embassy of Kenya in Japan)

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8.2 Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure (From the official web site of the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure in Kenya) Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure performs the following functions

8.2.1 Core functions of transport department

 Policy formulation  Develop, review and oversee implementation of policies in the transport sector.  Development of Regulatory Framework These roles are performed by the following technical divisions or units in the Transport Department shown below.  Air Accident Investigation  Air Transport  Shipping and Maritime  Railways  Road Transport  Engineering Services  Central Planning and Project Monitoring The Transport Department ensures development of regulatory framework, which is enforced through the following authorities and state corporations under the ministry;  Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA) is responsible for regulation and provision of air navigation services in the aviation industry in order to ensure safe, efficient and effective civil aviation system in Kenya and management of the East African School of Aviation.  Kenya Airports Authority (KAA) manages commercially viable aerodromes in the country to facilitate air transport services. KAA maintains, rehabilitate and constructs airstrips on an agency basis.  Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) manages the ports along the coastline that provides the expansive hinterland of mainland Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan and Uganda with transport link to the outside world. KPA also manages Bandari College.  Kenya Ferry Services (KFS) provides free ferry services to pedestrian public across the Likoni and Mtongwe channels on the Indian Ocean. KFS remains an important Agency for providing the only link between the mainland and the island.  Kenya National Shipping Line (KNSL) was established with the objective of owning ships carrying Kenyan flag for transportation of bulk cargo.  Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC) – after the concession on 1st November 2006, KRC was re-organized to monitor and regulate the performance of the concessionaire and also manage non-concessioned assets. Operation of the rolling stock was concessioned to the Rift Valley Railways (RVR) for a period of 25 years. KRC also manages Railway Training school.  Kenya Maritime Authority (KMA) is responsible for regulation and co-ordination of activities in the Maritime industry.  National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) is responsible for harmonization of operations of key road transport departments and help in effectively managing the road transport subsector and minimizing loss of lives through road traffic crashes. Kenya Port Authority (KPA) is in charge of port management in coastal area and there is no division in headquarter of MOTI. Planning and project monitoring are handled in the transport department headquarter but there is no planning and coordination department between transport and infrastructure departments.

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8.2.2 Core Functions of Infrastructure Department

Infrastructure department handles mainly regarding a road administration. The specific responsibilities of infrastructure department are;  National roads development policy  Development, standardization and maintenance of roads  Materials testing and advice on usage  Co-ordination of the activities undertaken by the Parastatals / Authorities namely:-  Research and training on highways construction and building technology.  Standardization of vehicles, plant and equipment  Vehicles, plant and equipment inventory  Registration of engineers  Registration of road contractor  Maintenance of security roads These roles are performed by the following technical divisions or units in the Infrastructure Department.  Materials Testing and Research Division  Mechanical and Transport Division  Kenya Institute of Highways & Building Technology  Quality Assurance  Roads Division  The Infrastructure Department ensures development of regulatory framework, which is enforced through the following authorities etc. under the ministry. Details of functions are omitted.  Kenya National Highways Authority  Kenya Urban Roads Authority  Kenya Rural Roads Authority  Kenya Roads Board  Engineers Board of Kenya

8.2.3 Institutions

The following Institutions fall under the Ministry. Powers of authority are defined by each act.  Kenya Roads Board (Kenya Roads Board Act, 1999 and 2007)  Kenya National Highways Authority (Kenya Roads Act, 2007)  Kenya Urban Roads Authority (Kenya Roads Act, 2007)  Kenya Rural Roads of Highways and Building Technology  Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC (Amendment) Act, 2005)  Kenya Railways Training School (KRC (Amendment) Act, 2005)  Kenya Ports Authority (KPA Act)  Kenya Airports Authority (KAA Act, 1991)  Kenya Ferry Services (Cap. 446)  Kenya National Shipping Line (Cap. 446)  East African School of Aviation (KCAA (Amendment) Act, 2002)  Kenya Maritime Authority (KMA Act, 2006)  Bandari College (KPA Act)  Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA (Amendment) Act, 2002)  Transport Licensing Board  National Road Safety Council  National Transport and Safety Authority  LAPSSET Corridor Development Authority

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8.2.4 Strengthen port administration and coordination power of MOTI

MOTI ensures regulatory framework, enforces authorities/state corporations who manage and implement their projects, and harmonize their missions under the Ministry. The Transport and Infrastructure Departments ensure development of regulatory framework, which is enforced through the authorities and state corporations under the ministry; Each Authority has the same power in its administration and operation, resulting to take some time to solve contradiction(s) in projects’ interfaces. i.e., Highway Project vs Railway Project and Container Terminal Project vs Railway Project still require further coordination for practical solutions Planning and project monitoring are handled in the transport department headquarter but there is no planning and coordination department between transport and infrastructure departments. It is expected that the Ministry takes a strong leadership for the inter-sectorial coordination in the master plans.

Figure 8.2.1 Strengthen port administration and coordination power of MOTI Source; Study Team

Figure 8.2.2 SGR construction area crosses into the bypass construction area behind the new container terminal site

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Figure 8.2.3 SGR interrupts the bypass highway to access to the 2nd new container terminal

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8.3 Kenya Maritime Authority (KMA) Following passages are from the website of KMA. Kenya Maritime Authority (KMA) was set up in June 2004 as the semi-autonomous agency in charge of regulatory oversight over the Kenyan maritime industry. Maritime safety and security is one of the Authority’s core functions. As the pacesetter of the Kenyan maritime industry, KMA thus strives to strengthen national maritime administration through enhancement of regulatory and institutional capacities for safety and security, fostering effective implementation of international maritime conventions and other mandatory instruments on safety and security, promoting maritime training, coordinating Search and Rescue, preventing marine pollution and promoting preservation of the marine environment as well as promoting trade facilitation and maritime investments. The enactment of New Merchant Shipping Act in 2009 has enhanced delivery of services by the authority in these areas. Foreign Ships calling at the port of Mombasa, Kenya are inspected by KMA ship surveyors in accordance with Indian Ocean Memorandum of Understanding (IOMOU) on Port State Control to which Kenya is a member. This is to ensure that ships comply with safety of life and safe manning regulations, protection of the marine environment regulations and load line regulations, among others. As part of our core mandate Kenya Maritime Authority is responsible for the operation of the Regional Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centre (RMRCC), now also known as the Mombasa Information Sharing Centre (ICS). The Centre provides a communication center where seafarers can call in for help in cases of distress while at sea, in a large area covering Tanzania, Seychelles and Somalia as well as receiving and responding to piracy alerts and requests for information or assistance at all times. Kenya Maritime Authority has been in the lead in promoting maritime training and education in Kenya. Kenya’s recent entry into the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) White list status was an affirmation that Kenya’s maritime education now meets international standards, enabling its seafarers to compete for jobs on international ships. As the pacesetters of the Kenyan maritime industry and in solidarity with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) ‘Go to sea campaign’, the Authority has intensified its focus on boosting the image of the maritime industry and supporting cadet recruitment among the youth, including the recruitment of female cadets. The Authority is further committed to implementing International Maritime Organization (IMO) programs aimed at the integration of women in the maritime sector in answer to Millennium Development Goal number three, “ Promoting gender equality and empowerment of women” in the maritime sector. In this regard, KMA hosts the Association of Women in the Maritime Sector in East and Southern Africa (WOMESA), which aims at mainstreaming the role of women in the maritime sector. Departments are;  Directorate  Corporate Support Services  Legal  Commercial Shipping  Maritime Safety  Internal Audi Regulations are;  Merchant Shipping (Maritime Service Providers) Regulations, 2011  Merchant Shipping (Fees) Regulations, 2011  Merchant Shipping (Port State Control) Regulations, 2011  Merchant Shipping Maritime Service Providers Regulations, 2011  Merchant Shipping Fees Regulations, 2011  Merchant Shipping Port State Control Regulations, 2011

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 Merchant Shipping (Training and Certification) Regulations, 2012  Merchant Shipping (Eyesight and Medical Examinations) Regulations, 2012  Merchant Shipping (Radio Communications) Regulations, 2012  Merchant Shipping (Safe Manning) Regulations, 2012

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8.4 Kenya Port Authority (KPA)

8.4.1 Current status of KPA

(1) History of KPA Kenya gained independence in 1963 while her East African neighbors, Tanzania and Uganda, became independent in 1961 and 1962 respectively. In 1967 the three countries joined forces to set up the East African Community (EAC). They also created a new authority, the East African Harbor Corporation, to run the principal ports of Dar Es Salaam, Mombasa and the oil port of Tanga. There was positive development under this new organization, but with the collapse of the EAC in 1977, the running of Kenya’s ports was taken over by the national government, which established the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) in 1978. KPA was enlarged in 1986 when it merged with the autonomous state organization Kenya Cargo Handling Ltd to form a single body responsible for all aspects of national port development and operations. (2) KPA and organizational structure Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) is a state-owned body under the Ministry of Transport established by an Act of Parliament of 20 January 1978 with the mandate to maintain, operate, improve and regulate all scheduled seaports situated along Kenya's coastline and lake ports. The port of Mombasa is managed and operated by the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) a semi-autonomous government parastatal. KPA also manages the small sea ports of Kiunga, Lamu, Malindi, Kilifi, Mtwapa, Funzi, Shimoni, Vanga, Inland Container Depots, and a liaison office in Kampala that caters for all transit countries.

Figure 8.4.1 Organizational Structure of KPA

KPA’s vision is to transform the port of Mombasa into one of the top 20 ports in the world. KPA has its 25 year Master Plan and Strategic Plan in 2005 which aim at transforming the port into an E-Port and

8-8 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 8. Port Administration and Management landlord port. But there ae various obstacles to overcome before the vision, master plan and strategic plan will be realized. To carry out its functions, KPA has the following organizational structure. KPA has 7000 staffs including 3000 handling workers approximately. The education level of KPA staff is shown in the table below.

Table 8.4.1 Education Level of KPA Staff PHD 1 MASTERS 125 Degree 404 Higher National Diploma 93 Diploma 1057 Source: KPA HRD Data 2014

(3) Working hours & Local holidays Working hours shall mean the appointed hours of business as may from time to time be prescribed by the Authority for the provision of any particular service or facility. Stations or small harbors under the jurisdiction of the Authority shall observe regular working hours from 0800 to 1700 hours. Provision of services or facilities outside these hours shall be on prior notification. Ship and cargo handling operations shall be available 24 hours a day throughout the year. These operations are organized on shift basis as below: First Shift 0700 -1500, Second Shift 1500 – 2300, Third shift 2300 -0700 Labor Day and Christmas Day are normally the only holidays on which the Port of Mombasa is closed, except for the necessary Pilotage of ships in and out of harbor and for dealing with mail, passengers and their baggage, livestock and perishables. On other public holidays, restricted working at Mombasa may be carried out at overtime rates. (4) Services a) Pilotage Pilotage is compulsory for all vessels except those exempted as per Tariff and KPA Act. All Pilots are master mariners with sea-going experience. KPA has 4 pilot boats and 4mooring boats. b) Towage 3 ASD (Azimuth Stern Drive) Tugs (delivered in 2004) with 58 tons bollard pull and 5000HP. 1 Tug fixed propeller of 40 tons bollard pull (built in1982 now being refurbished). The 3 ASD tugs are fitted with pollution control, fire-fighting and salvage equipment. Tugs are compulsory when ordered by Pilots. c) Bunkers Fuel oil CST 30, 40, 60, 80, 100 120, 150 180, marine diesel oil (DMB) marine gas oil (DMA) and lubricants are available at the SOT and by barges operated by a private company Alba Petroleum. Mombasa is one of the few ports where homogeneous blended fuel is available. d) Fresh water Fresh water is available on hydrants on certain berths but is not adequate. Trucks supply fresh water to ships and a 300 ton barge supply fresh water to vessels at anchor. e) Fire-fighting and Ambulance Services The port has its own fire station manned around the clock. Several fire-engines and an ambulance are available. Special fire-fighting systems fitted at the two oil terminals. The 3 new tugs fitted with

8-9 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 8. Port Administration and Management powerful fire pumps (600 cubic m/s). f) Ship repair There are 5 ship repair facilities in the port. KPA has its own Dockyard with slipways and workshop facilities for repairing KPA marine craft. The Kenya Navy has a syncro-lift and workshop facilities for repairing its own fleet. g) Other services i.e., Marine services (5) Port Tariff KPA has regulations for port tariff shown below and those are up loaded in their Web.  MINOR ADJUSTMETS to KPA TARIF - 01Aug 014  CHARGES FOR STEVEDORING SERVICES  CHARGES FOR SHOREHANDLING-WHARFAGE-STORAGE SERVICES  SHOREHANDLING-WHARFAGE-STORAGE SERVICES  CHARGES FOR MARINE SERVICES AND SHIP DUES  CHARGES FOR GENERAL SERVICES Container tariffs are shown below as a representative example. In other ports in East Africa, regarding Import-Domestic tariffs 20ft full containers, in Djibouti port; it is USD133/TEU, in Dal Es Slam port, USD231/TEU, in Nakra port USD240/TEU, and Durban port, USD105/TEU. Tariff level of Mombasa port is as same level as that of Durban.

Table 8.4.2 Container Tariff of KPA

(6) Port Maintenance Proper maintenance and timely replacement of the port’s large fleet of equipment is vital for the smooth operation of the port. Everything from the smallest component to major items like gantry cranes and tugs must be working correctly for the port to serve its customers best; and that is no easy task for this dedicated and conscientious segment of KPA employees. The Engineering Division has three main areas of operation: container terminal equipment; conventional terminal equipment;

8-10 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 8. Port Administration and Management and marine craft. All three departments have their own workshops including machine shops for making components. Most components are fabricated on site, but external contractors are used for some items, such as large motors. Members of the engineering staff are responsible for modifications to existing equipment as well as for procuring new equipment and providing specifications and proposals when items need to be replaced. This information is passed onto the procurement office for tendering or purchase. Maintenance of equipment is an ongoing process. Some items, such as terminal tractors and reach stackers, are serviced every 250 hours, equivalent to about twice a month. Other items such as RTG, STS and RMG cranes are serviced every month. The KPA aims to achieve 90 per cent uptime on all its equipment. Failures and accidents do occur, although thankfully not often; otherwise, downtime is required mainly for scheduled maintenance. While some items of equipment can be maintained above this target, the average across the port is 92 per cent, an indication of the professionalism of the KPA Engineering Division. (7) Ports security The Port of Mombasa has become one of the most secure ports in East Africa following the installation of an integrated security system (ISS). Funded jointly by the Kenyan government and the World Bank, the US$ 21.4 million ISS project was designed to automate a large part of the security processes in order to comply with the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code. It also allows the port to monitor cargo passing in and out of the port’s gates. The system includes optical character recognition and license plate recognition so that containers and trucks can be identified for documentation purposes. In addition, 400 cameras have been installed at strategic locations around the port to provide 24-hour surveillance. There are also thermal imaging reducing the need for physical security Cameras near the waterside to detect illegal activities and pilferage. Each of the port’s five zones has its own security center, while the main control center provides overall monitoring. The recent investment includes 10 km of perimeter intrusion detection fencing (so-called smart fencing). The ISS allows KPA to monitor and respond electronically. One of the most visually obvious changes to the port’s security, and perhaps the most important, is the growing use of access control throughout the port. The main gates are now automated with vehicle barriers, swipe cards and recognition systems. These not only limit access to authorized personnel, but also record all entry and exit movements so that, at any given time, Port Security has an accurate record of people and vehicles within the port area. Time management of KPA staff has also been automated and all members of staff have been issued with swipe cards to gain access to secure areas. The swipe cards are biometric, which means there must be fingerprint verification before access is allowed. Training has formed a key part of the process; and 180 staff from the security department is now fully trained to operate the Main Control Rooms, the Gate Control Rooms and the Local Control Rooms. Port security upgrade gives boost to customer confidence at the two inland container depots at Nairobi and Kisumu. The next stage is to integrate the security and communications subsystems with the vessel traffic management system (VTMS) and the SAP/ERP system.

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(8) Financial state

Table 8.4.3 STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION AS AT 30TH JUNE 2014

Source: KPA Annual Review and Bulletin of Statistics 2014

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(9) Bandari College Bandari College was established in 1980 as a training and staff development institution for the Kenya Ports Authority. The College today caters for the training needs of the national maritime transport sector and is also used as a center to host Regional and International courses, workshops, seminars and conferences. The College is situated on the Southwest corner of the port town of Mombasa, the gateway to east and central Africa. Mombasa is also a major tourist destination of Kenya with close proximity to renowned beach resorts and wildlife sanctuaries. Bandari College trains in the following disciplines:  PORT OPERATIONS COURSES  TECHNICAL COURSES  MANAGEMENT, ADMINISTRATION COURSES  MARINE COURSE

8.4.2 Establishment of Port Division in MOTI and enactment of a new Port Act

MOTI has the Shipping and Maritime Division in headquarter and they have a Kenya Maritime Authority (KMA). KMA is enacted by KMA Act (2006). In addition, they have the Merchant Shipping Act (2009). Shipping and Maritime Division of MOTI and KMA shears their responsibilities and functions based on relevant laws and carry out broad administration including international agreements. On the other hand, Kenya Port Authority (KPA) is enacted by KPA Act and in charge of port management. The KPA Act has provided for the continued application of the East African Harbor Regulations of 1970 promulgated under the East African Railways and Harbors Act. However changes in shipping, port development and technology, growth in trade, development of larger and more specialized terminals, the need to comply with international legislation and keep abreast of industry practices. Many of the existing regulations and KPA Act fossilized development and management of coastal area. For example, port planning and coordination protocol is not clarified in the KPA Act. That is why other authorities does not respect a master plan established by KPA. A new Port Act, which is modern and international, should be prepared. Roles among policy maker, regulator, manager, and operator should be clearly demarcated. At the same time, Port Division in MOTI also should be established.

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8.5 KPA’s endeavors to become a landlord and concession port

8.5.1 Port reform action in Africa

Much progress has been made in the last decade toward institutional reform in the infrastructure sector, with ports achieving the greatest success after telecommunications and ahead of roads and railroads, where private sector financing has been low. Institutional reform in the infrastructure sector in general, including ports, has placed emphasis on the quality of governance in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) of which many remain, particularly in the port subsector. Disparities in economic and institutional development across African countries make it difficult to pick out a standard “African” model of reform. The public–private partnership (PPP) takes many forms which vary from region to region and even within the same country.

Table 8.5.1 Port management models and regulatory agencies in selected African countries

8.5.2 Transformation to landlord port

The most popular port-management model employed worldwide is the landlord port. The port authority focuses on broader aspects of port development management such as port planning, and real estate. The system is common throughout Europe, the Americas and Asia. It is also a concept being taken up in Africa, but is it far from being the norm. The port management and operation of KPA is still in the service port type. Productivity could be increased by changing the port management model. The first step in this direction is the concession of container-terminal. That is, the port authority withdraws as the operator, allowing a private sector company to take over as the terminal operator and manager. KPA is on the way of selection of concessionaire for a new container terminal.

Table 8.5.2 Port Management Types in the World

Type of port Infrastructure Super Structure Operation Other Function Services Public Public Public Public Tool Public Public Private Public Land load Public Private Private Private Private Private Private Private Private Source; World Bank Port Hand Book

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Current container handling productivity KPA is very low comparing to those of other ports in the world. KPA has 1300 workers for conventional cargo handling and 1700 workers for container cargo handling. Container handling productivity remains low i.e., around 10 boxes/hour (recently around 20 boxes). Container traffic of 2014 was 1012 k TEUs. 1.6 TEUs / worker / day. Despite employing the same type of port management model and handling equipment, the handling productivity of Mombasa port is only about half that of Phnom Penh port in Cambodia.

Table 8.5.3 Container handling productivity in Asian and African ports TEU Port TEU/year TEU/day Workers /day/worker Mombasa 1,012,002 Service 2,772 1,700 1.6 2014 (SC&GR) Toamasina MICTSI 182,355 Concession 500 150 3.3 2012 (QC) Sheanouk Ville 334,000 Service 915 300 3.0 2014 (GC) Phnom Penh 133,666 Service 366 120 3.1 2014 (QC) Leam Chabang B3 600,000 Concession 1,643 300 8.5 2013 (GC) Source; JICA study team

The most difficult issue is how KPA will handle workers who operate in existing berths. The number of workers in cargo operation is more than around 3,000. There are some ways to settle the issue, e.g., to set up a joint company which workers shift to. In other words, operation department will be separated from KPA, then joint with a foreign or local company. Joint Operation is different from Joint Venture Operation. Both the public sector and private sector provide capital to each other, a certain period of time. Profits resulting from the management are divided between the public sector and the private sector in the same proportion as the capital investment. This form is often used in port development and management project in the world. Specifically, KPA is to provide workers with the port facility, the private sector provides the cargo handling equipment and terminal operations system jointly to operate the terminal. The advantage is that workers remains belonged to KPA and labor issues are unlikely to occur. The disadvantage is that, if the quay facility is extremely decrepit, if there is no willingness to diligent workers, the burden and risk of the private sector side are increased, it is not going well. In the first stage, KPA will introduce a remuneration system based on performance to increase the productivity of cargo handling. One of the moderate options for KPA is to wait natural attrition and retirement of workers. Then, KPA applies a landlord model berth by berth letting the terminals leased and operated by private sectors. In the final stage, other port services, i.e., tug and pilotage services will be privatized as in other advanced ports in the world.

8.5.3 Endeavors of KPA

KPA currently owns most of the port infrastructure and undertakes the majority of port operations. The shift in the role of KPA from port service provider to landlord and regulator is a difficult change management exercise. The Government of Kenya committed to transforming Mombasa to a landlord port in 2002, but there has been little progress on implementation. There can be no strategic port management until the roles of the public and private sectors are clearly defined in a law. It will require new skills, institutional capabilities, and practices including regulating unfair and anti-competitive

8-15 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 8. Port Administration and Management practices, designing and negotiating contracts with private providers of port services, performance monitoring and ensuring compliance with standards. Now KPA is in the process of selecting a concessionaire for the new container terminal that will be completed in 2016. But KPA and a selected concessionaire might face serious issues. The first issue is how a selected concessionaire will find skilled and competent machine operators and workers for their terminal. If they select only skilled workers from KPA who are paid high wages, a serious labor problem would be created. The second issue is that container handling in existing berths will be shifted to the new container terminal if the handling charges remain the same. Third issue is that workers’ salaries in a new private container terminal might be higher than that of the 1700 workers in the existing container terminals. That might present a new challenge for KPA port management. In the case of concession or privatization of a port, many port authorities dealt with and were able to overcome labor issues. There are various possible solutions. The reform of port management type of the KPA will be less successful if there is no simultaneous reform of the activities of customs and other agencies at the port to streamline their activities. Changes to the existing roles of some government agencies would likely require changes in the relevant laws which created them. In particular, a new port act that defines the roles of public and private sectors, or roles of regulator, manager and operator of port, is required.

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8.6 Public Private Partnerships (PPP)

8.6.1 PPP Act in Kenya

(1) Historical background of PPP Act Over the years, Kenyans have expressed frustration at the perceived inefficiency of government departments and public bodies in delivering services. These concerns are especially prevalent in cases where such public bodies enjoy a monopoly. It has been suggested that, given a chance, private bodies could deliver more efficient services, sometimes at a cheaper cost. This rationale led to the enactment of the Public Private Partnerships Act. This Act was assented into law on 14th January, 2013 and commenced operation on the 8th February, 2013. This law was adopted in line with the national development program called “Vision 2030”, which is currently implemented in Kenya. This plan aims to transform Kenya into an “average-income country”, particularly through the realization of key projects that require important funding, which, in practice, cannot be fully supported by the Government. The following factors necessitated the enactment of this Act:  The increased demand for quality and affordable services from citizens. These services include, but are not limited to, transport, water and sewerage, telecommunications, power and social services.  The need to reduce the funding gap for infrastructure which is estimated at USD 40 billion over the next eight years.  The need to provide a new source of investment capital for required infrastructure projects  The need to reduce government sovereign borrowings and associated risks  The need to drive the creation of local, long term funding market  The need to utilize efficiencies of the private sector in running public services  The need to expand the economy and stimulate job creation  The need to increase quality of public services to the Kenyan citizens.  The need to guarantee continuity of investments even after a political transition, ending past cases where incoming governments would nullify old contracts in favor of the regime's associates. (2) PPA Act in Kenya The following is an excerpt from PPP Act No.15 of 2013 in Kenya Public Private Partnership (hereinafter referred to as PPP) is the partnership between the government and the private sector which is aimed at financing, designing, implementing and operating public sector facilities and services. It allows the public sector to contract with private sector. A PPP is a Performance‐based contract under which the private Sector supplies public services over time and is paid by the public sector, end user or a hybrid of both. Output is specified by the Contracting Authority while input is the responsibility of the private sector. Under the PPP contract:  The Government will retain total strategic control on the service  The Government will secure new infrastructure which becomes Government assets at the end of contract life.  Project and performance risks will be allocated to the party best able to manage or mitigate. The Public Private Partnership Act, No. 15 of 2013 (hereinafter referred to as the Act) is an Act of Parliament which is designed to provide for the participation of the private sector in the financing, construction, development, operation, or maintenance of infrastructure or development projects of the Government through concession or other contractual arrangements. In addition to this, it also provides for the establishment of the institutions to regulate, monitor and supervise the implementation of project agreements on infrastructure or development projects and for connected purposes.

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8.6.2 Implication of the PPP Act

(1) Implications of the PPP Act The Act provides an institutional and regulatory framework for public private partnerships in Kenya. It will regulate the process of engaging private parties and the manner in which public private partnerships are conducted so as to ensure the provision of high quality facilities and services. It also provides a comprehensive framework for carrying out public private partnerships and seeks to replace the existing regulations which are considered to be largely inadequate. The Act will further aid in:  Providing a legal capacity for public bodies to enter into PPP contracts  Creating more certainty and investor confidence  Addressing legal gaps and remove conflicts and overlaps in the law; (avoid the need for piecemeal amendments)  Providing specific procedures of selection and contracting more suitable for the PPP mechanism  Ensuring that investor selection is done in a transparent, fair and competitive manner  Overcoming procedural, legal impediments and difficulties that would have been faced by the government to implement public private partnership procurement  Introducing of funding into Kenyan legislative framework for procurement All these will help facilitate growth and development both at the national and county levels of government. (2) Institutions established under the Act The Act establishes elaborate structures for determining whether a project is eligible for a PPP. For a project to qualify, it would have to be considered and approved by the following institutions: a) PPP Node A contracting authority must establish a PPP Node if it intends to enter into a PPP arrangement. The PPP node is headed by the accounting officer of the contracting authority and consists of the following personnel: financial, technical, procurement; and legal. The functions of the PPP node include:  Identification and screening of projects  Preparation and appraisal of each project agreement to ensure viability  Ensuring parties comply with the PPP Act  Undertaking tender processes  Monitoring the implementation of the project agreement b) PPP Unit The PPP unit is to be established under the State Department of Finance. It consists of a director; and such staff as the cabinet secretary, in consultation with the director, considers necessary. The PPP unit acts as the secretariat to the PPP Committee. Its functions include:  Conducting civic education;  Providing advice to contracting authorities;  Making recommendations on the approval or rejection of projects prior to submission to the PPP Committee;  Reviewing and assessing requests for government support c) PPP Committee This institution replaces the PPP Steering Committee under the Privatization and Public Procurement and Disposal Act (No. 3 OF 2005). Persons appointed as committee members of PPP Steering Committee are members of the PPP Committee.

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The PPP committee comprises; Principal Secretary for Finance, Principal Secretary responsible for Government Co-ordination, Principal Secretary for Lands, Principal Secretary responsible for County Government, Attorney General, Four persons who are not public officers (appointed by the Cabinet Secretary), The Director of the PPP Unit The role of the PPP committee is to:  Formulate policy guidelines on PPPs  Review legal, institutional and regulatory framework of PPPs  Approve project lists submitted to it by the PPP Unit  Approve project proposals submitted to it by a contracting authority  Ensure each project agreement is consistent with the PPP Act  Ensure approval and fiscal accountability of financial support granted by Government d) PPP Process  Description of services, goods or works  Ownership of the project’s funds and assets  Authorizations, permits, and approvals;  Tariffs and method of adjustment  Payment arrangements and penalties;  Dispute resolution mechanisms  Risk allocation in respect of change in law, force majeure;  Termination and compensation;  Direct agreements and step-in rights of lenders where appropriate; and  Asset handover provisions

Figure 8.6.1 Minimum Contractual Obligations of a PPP e) Opportunities arising from the Public Private Partnership Act There are several opportunities that arise from the PPP Act in Kenya as hereunder:  Risk mitigation (Letters of Support, Guarantees (Demand/Traffic Guarantee), and subsidies;  Inflation and interest rate indexation;  Performance monitoring mechanisms;  Direct Agreement and step-in rights to Lenders;  Compensation for termination/ extra-ordinary events/ direct impact of change of Laws/political event;  Establishment of a Viability Gap Fund to support economically viable projects which may

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not be financially viable without Government support;  A clear, transparent, fair and competitive process for PPPs, covering Project identification, selection, prioritization, preparation, appraisal, procurement , approvals and procurement of project Advisors;  A clear institutional framework for development and approval of PPP projects – Cabinet, PPP Committee, PPP Secretariat, Contracting Authorities and the role of Treasury in fiscal risk management and Contingent Liabilities;  Government will prepare bankable projects before going to the market; and  Use of Privately Initiated Investment Proposals (unsolicited) method of procurement when there is urgent need for continuity and where there is intellectual /innovation. This Act will help Kenya derive greater value for money from the PPP program through better project preparation, better risk allocation, increased transparency, wider quality control, and greater efficiency.

8.6.3 PPP port projects considered by KPA

Following passages are from the National Priority List of Public Private Partnership Projects. The economic growth and prosperity of a nation depends largely on modern infrastructure. Currently, the Government of Kenya faces a substantial and expanding gap between public investment needs and available resources. It is currently estimated that there is an infrastructure funding gap of approximately US$2-3 Billion per year that is needed to address the infrastructure requirements in the next 10 years. In addition, the Government continues to face the challenge of raising adequate resources to meet its social and economic development obligations, including finding the resources to implement the new Constitution. All of these competing demands call for a pragmatic approach on how the Government funds national development. Indeed, it is now recognized that the current development funding gap can only be plugged by bringing together capital and know-how from the public and private sectors. It is for this reason that private sector development has been entrenched as a central and prominent feature of national development planning in Kenya in the last decade. Public Private Partnerships, or PPPs, can be a major contributor and force in modernizing infrastructure in affordable and sustainable ways, with positive impact on the quality of life for all Kenyans. PPPs can also contribute to easing budgetary constraints on social expenditure, directly enabling the Government to broaden and deepen balanced development. The Public Private Partnership Act No.15 of 2013 came into effect on 8th February 2013, and it establishes the new legal framework enabling the structured, methodical and staged development of PPPs in infrastructure development in Kenya. The PPP program in Kenya is being promoted as a long-term program, and not as a series of independent projects and that is why in 2011, the Government adopted a formal policy on PPPs. Consequently Section 24 of the PPP Act 2013 requires deliberate planning and programming, technically grounded on PPP project identification, selection and prioritization, in order that planned PPP projects introduce systemic efficiencies across different economic sectors that drive growth and development. Identified projects constitute a PPP pipeline of projects, which require approval and clearance by the Public Private Partnership Committee, and the Cabinet under section 24 of the Act. Section 25 of the PPP Act requires that the approved list of PPP projects shall be published in the electronic and print media for purposes of informing both local and international companies about the planned PPP projects in Kenya. KPA announces PPP Ports Projects in the list of PPP Committee, and final policy clearance granted by the Cabinet.

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(1) Kisumu Sea Port and other Lake Victoria Ports The project involves development of Kisumu Port into a modern commercial Lake Port to serve the growing trade in the East African Community region on a build-operate-transfer basis. The goal is to develop these ports, provide requisite physical and super infrastructure, develop a mechanism to effectively manage these ports and ensure their efficient utilization. Private parties will be invited to Design, Finance, Build, operate and Transfer. KPA will own the port and be the landlord. (2) Mombasa 2nd Container Terminal Phase 2&3 The Private Parties will be invited to operate and maintain the second Container Terminal now under construction through funding from Japanese Government. The development and operation of the 2nd Container Terminal is to be done by the Private Party while KPA becomes the Landlord. (3) Conversion of Berth 11 – 14 Regarding Conversion of berths 11 – 14 general cargo to container terminal on a PPP, PA is to be the landlord while the Private Party will be responsible for funding, development and operation. (4) Lamu Port Development Project This is a regional project with considerable portion of public funding. Countries involved are Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Southern Sudan. The project has many components including Lamu Port, Railway, Airport, Roads, Refinery, and Pipelines of crude and refined oil as well as resort cities. (5) Soft infrastructure A system of incentives combined with improvements in soft infrastructure should be implemented now to enable Mombasa to keep pace with demand before new container capacity comes on line. Kenya and the region cannot wait 3-4 years for new container capacity to come on-line without a serious impact on trade. Port capacity could be increased in the immediate term by a system of incentives to encourage port stake holders e.g. banking services and all government agencies involved in cargo clearance, to move to full 24 hours operations. Implementation of such IT software is being considering to be measured in Mombasa Port, too.

8.6.4 Realistic PPP model in Mombasa Port

Mombasa Port will need further development to meet the future demand for container cargo, bulk cargo and general cargo in its limited port space. KPA may change from a service port to a landlord port or a concession port in which private investors and/or terminal operators will develop and operate port facilities. For the development of the new container terminals, PPP initiative will be introduced. If private companies are not interested in investing in infrastructure development due to the huge costs involved, a PPP initiative in which the public sector bears the cost of infrastructure while the private sector covers superstructure will be examined.

Table 8.6.1 Type of PPP port project

PPP Initiative by Infrastructure Super Structure Operation

Public Public Public Private Middle Public Private Private Private Private Private Private Source; JICA study team

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8.7 Port entry system in Mombasa Port

8.7.1 Customs clearance

This is an example of the process undergone to clear a container at Mombasa Port in Kenya. Documents required are  Bill of lading;  Commercial invoice  Gift certificate  Packing list  Freight invoice or charge information  Obtain confirmation of vessel arrival and shipping line’s manifest information.  Enter details onto customs’ SIMBA system - if the system is up and the internet is working.  Obtain Mombasa Port Release Document from Port Authority after unloading from vessel to add to our documents for customs endorsement.  Shipping line will also enter information to customs - if there is an error, allow an extra day.  Wait for customs response on duty/tax calculation.  On many entries customs will re-assess values/classifications - if this happens.  Request customs to cancel the original entry so we can re-enter  Customs often takes 24 hours to action request  Pay duty by check and obtain official receipt  Often around 2 hours queue  Once entry is passed, clerk goes to the Central Documents Office (CDO) within Mombasa port with hard copies of all documents. CDO officers will check that all documents are genuine and compare with information of SIMBA – if the system is up and the internet is working. If not, go back the following day.  Take the approved documents from the CDO to the officer who decides which containers will be allowed normal verification and which are selected for scanning or physical search. Take documentation to the Kenya Bureau of Standards Quarantine/Health Office for their approval.  Go to the Port Authority Office for confirmation and payment of the port charges  The Port Authority checks our documents against hard-copy documents from the shipping line - any discrepancy will be a one day delay while an amendment is filed  Container is transferred to the verification area – normally around 6 hours, unless selected for scanning/ physical search, in which case 24-48 hours is normal  If the cargo is not as described on the documents, customs may require any or all of the above steps to be repeated.  When customs are happy, the release order is handed to the port authority who issue a loading slot for the truck collecting the container from the port - bookings are rarely for the same day

8.7.2 No real time cargo status in SIMBA

The lack of real time information on cargo is a major constraint on supply chain performance. The introduction of a Ports Community-Based System (PCBS) would significantly increase efficiency. The use of modern customs practices, information systems and integrated IT systems in port operations should represent as a major goal for Kenya, particularly as more open and transparent processes would diminish opportunities for corruption. A functioning PCBS would improve the port’s efficiency and support Kenya’s future obligations in providing supply chain security. Cargo clearance and transfer involve a complex mix of government process in logistics and transport. Since 2005 the introduction of Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA)’s SIMBA IT system has improved the speed of revenue assessment. However, the SIMBA system does not provide

8-22 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 8. Port Administration and Management automatic notification to other border control agencies. More specifically, cargoes have been declared and it does not communicate the status of cargo in real-time. Thus, owners are not able to see where the weak/slow links are in the full clearance chain. Under the East African Community (EAC) customs union, the collection of revenue at the port of entry, i.e. Mombasa (possibly under joint supervision), would improve efficiency and transit times and help resolve the issue of transit goods being dumped in Kenya. If full clearance procedures were also introduced, it would reduce transit times.

8.7.3 Slow cargo flow in Mombasa Port facilities

Figure 8.7.1 and Figure 8.7.2 shows the contribution Mombasa Port. It takes 22 days to transport goods to Kampala respectively from the moment they arrive at Mombasa Port. For goods destined to Kenya, the proportion of time spent at a KPA facility, including the CFS hold time is estimated at 90 percent of the total time it takes for goods to move from ship arrival to Nairobi. Cargo takes much time to go out from Mombasa Port facilities including the CFS. This is thought to be due to the slow and complicated circulation of clearance documents.

Figure 8.7.1 Container Flow to Nairobi

Figure 8.7.2 Container Flow to Kampala

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8.8 E-Port System in KPA

8.8.1 Kenya National Single Window System (KNESW)

The development of the Kenyan National Single Window started with a port-centric project in the port of Mombasa in 2005. It was spearheaded by the Port Authority and Revenue Authority and was subsequently developed into a national Single Window in 2007. The Kenya Electronic Single Window System covers air, rail, road and maritime systems. The conceptual approach underlying it was to develop a cross-cutting national project, including all government regulatory agencies. The ministerial-level Steering Committee for this national project included the Treasury, the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Trade. In 2011, the Kenya Trade Network Agency (KENTRADE) was set up by the Kenyan Government to manage the Kenya Electronic Single Window System. Its key objective is “to facilitate international trade in Kenya by reducing delays and lowering cost associated with clearance of goods at the Kenyan borders, while maintaining the requisite controls and collection of duties and taxes, where applicable, on goods imported or exported”. The objective of the Single Window system was to reduce cargo dwell time to three days at the port, one day at the airport and a maximum of one hour at the border. This can be achieved by eliminating existing inefficiencies, for instance the inefficient space utilization at ports, where waiting times lead to congestion. Furthermore there are inefficiencies in the cargo clearance process which involves manually handling paper documents between many stakeholders. These inefficiencies lead to delays in cargo clearance, high trade transaction costs and corruption which together reduce Kenya’s competitiveness.

Figure 8.8.1 Objective - Reduction in Cargo Dwell Time Source; UNECE Global Trade Facilitation Conference

On 31 October 2013, the Kenya Trade Network Agency (KenTrade) launched the Kenya National Electronic Single Window (KNESW) System two months ahead of the government deadline of 31 December. The KNESW system is part of the Kenya Vision 2030 initiative to facilitate trade, customs clearance and competitiveness and to reduce the cost of trade, thus promoting the economy. Work on the single window was begun initially by the KPA and the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), but it soon became a government project because of its wide-ranging implications for the nation’s trade and logistics sectors. The KNESW single window is based on the highly successful Singapore single window system. Introduction of the single window system has brought huge improvements in efficiency across the port and beyond. Importers now have to submit only one manifest, online, and clearance can be obtained much faster, so that cargo can be released from the port or other holding areas sooner than was previously possible. Eliminating the former inefficiencies from the clearance process will dramatically reduce the cost of

8-24 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 8. Port Administration and Management cargo handling because of the reduction in delays. These cost savings can be passed on to the importer or exporter and boost trade throughout the country. Perhaps the most pertinent part of the process was engaging the many stakeholders in the pursuit of a single goal to the benefit of every single stakeholder and every cargo handler in Kenya. It marks the beginning of a new growth in trade within the country.

Figure 8.8.2 Kenya National Electronic Single Window (KNESW) System

8.8.2 E-port system in KPA

In 2000, KPA embarked on a 10-year ICT (Information and Communication Technology) strategy that resulted in a fully integrated enterprise resource planning (ERP) system being launched in 2002 using systems applications and products (SAP) software. Fully web enabled, it included modules to handle human resources management, financial planning and control, material management, plant maintenance, project systems management, payroll and travel management. Then, in 2008, KPA installed the Kilindini Waterfront Automated Terminal Operations System (KWATOS). This allowed key port operational areas to be automated including container, conventional cargo and marine operations in the ICT upgrade prepares Port of Mombasa for e-port status Port of Mombasa as well as operation of the Nairobi and Kisumu inland container depots. These two developments were vital steps on the way to becoming an e-port. Further investments in 2010 and 2013 led to the upgrading of both the physical and functional aspects of the systems. The functional upgrade to the SAP system included new modules for a general ledger, financial supply chain management (FSCM), employee and manager self-service (ESS and MSS) and supplier relationship management (SRM). These upgrades were launched in March 2013, allowing staff to produce and deal with documentation and paperwork much more quickly.

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8.8.3 Going Forward (New Gate System)

 Challenges in the Single Window implementation process include capacity building & training, multiple stakeholders, the need for an enabling legal environment, and change in management. With the East African Community (EAC) East Africa has a community and customs union in place and is on the way to having common borders. National Single Windows are planned to be implemented in each of the five East African States. Going forward it is planned to sensitize all East African Community Partner States to the Single Window concept and to set up technical working groups.  On the other hand, the Simba System needs to be improved to prevent program downtime which suspends the port operation.  The most serious issue is to improve the gate system of KPA. When a container arrives at the KPA gate, a staff inputs container number to the system, and then a slip which shows where a container should be brought to, comes out. Even now, the gate is congested by trailers. The gate system should be updated and upgraded as container cargoes in Mombasa port are rapidly increasing. A container booking system should be introduced as soon as possible. RFID tag for container and GPS yard system for container should also be introduced. No operational services like container booking center should be put outside port.

Figure 8.8.3 Long trailers’ cue to Gate 20

Figure 8.8.4 Container positioning using paper document

8-26 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

9. Conclusion and Recommendation

9.1 Mombasa Port Master Plan

9.1.1 Current Situation and Issues of Mombasa Port

Cargo traffic is dominated by imports which account for 90% of total cargoes handled at Mombasa Port in 2014. This trend has remained steady in the past decade. Out of total import cargoes, about 30% is transit cargoes destined to hinterland countries and shows a gradual steady increase over the past decade. It is noted that overall cargo traffic at Mombasa Port has been increasing due to growth of the Kenyan economy and landlocked countries as well. In particular, the container traffic at Mombasa Port has also increased since 2005 reaching 1,012,002 TEUs in 2014. Annual growth of container traffic in the last 9 years shows a remarkable rate of nearly 10%. Although the total volume of cargo handled at the port has doubled over the past decade, various issues regarding cargo operation remain as follows; (1) Excessively high Berth Occupancy Ratio (B.O.R) followed by Long Waiting Time for Berthing Table 9.1.1 shows B.O.R, possibility of waiting by berth occupied (B/O), waiting time and average waiting time of each mooring facility in 2014. As mentioned in Chapter 5.3.1, UNCTAD recommends preferable B.O.R for various occasions. In cases where there are 6-10 berths, preferable B.O.R. is 70 %. Since Mombasa Port has more than 10 berths, the preferable B.O.R could be assumed to be approximately 70-75 % at most. Mooring facilities including Berth No. 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17 and 18 exceed the recommended B.O.R. by UNCTAD. Moreover, B.O.R of Berth No.1 and 10 is close to 75 %. Extremely high B.O.R. means that Mombasa Port is critically deficient in mooring facilities including berths and wharf. Accordingly, long waiting time for berthing caused by berth occupied (B/O) takes place.

Table 9.1.1 B.O.R of Berths and Other Indicator in 2014 Waiting Possibility by Berth/ B.O.R. Waiting Time Av. Waiting Time B/O* Wharf (%) (%) (hour) (hour/ Vessel) Mbaraki 11.0 0 0 0 No.1 74.7 22 1,650 41 No.2 4.6 0 0 0 No.3 82.5 40 4,112 133 No.4 79.5 27 1,872 72 No.5 89.6 29 1,607 50 No.7 90.6 24 1,281 85 No.8 36.0 10 212 53 No.9 88.5 31 1,290 68 No.10 72.5 34 1,219 64 No.11 84.2 25 1,473 57 No.12 68.0 5 657 110 No.13 80.2 21 700 32 No.14 86.0 20 595 35 No.16 100.0 57 4,829 78 No.17 89.6 60 5,067 82 No.18 94.9 56 5,243 81 No.19 - - - - Total 31,807 Note: *) Percentage of vessels waiting for berthing due to the berth occupied by other vessel Source: KPA and the Project Team

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(2) Excessive Mixture of Various Commodities followed by Low Cargo Handling Productivity Table 9.1.2 shows the allocation of major cargo to berths/wharf in 2014. Motorcars were handled at 11 berths, steel at 9 berths, containers at 15 berths and etc. Only the bulk wheat was handled in a concentrated manner, because efficient wheat unloaders have been installed at berth No.3. If a designated berth for a commodity is changed on a case-by-case basis, mobilization of stevedoring laborers and preparation of required cargo handling equipment will take longer than in the case of a fixed berth system for a commodity. Extraordinary mixture of various commodities leads to lower productivity in cargo handling.

Table 9.1.2 Allocation of Major Cargo to Berth/Wharf in 2014 Commodity Berth/Wharf Handled Total Motorcars No.1, No.3, No,4, No.5,No,7, No.9, No.10, No.11, No.12,No.13,No.14 11 Berths Steel No.1, No.3, No.4, No.5, No,7, No.8, No.9, No.10, No.11 9 Berths Container No.1, No.3, No.4, No.5, No.7, No.8, No.9, No.10, No.11, No.13, No.14, 15 Berths No.16-19 Bulk Wheat No.3 1 Berth Bulk Clinker Mbaraki, No.7, No.9, No.10 4 Berths Bulk Fertilizer No.1, No.5, No.7, No.9, No.10, No.11 6 Berths Bulk Coal Mbaraki, No.9, No.10, No.11 4 Berths Other Liquid Bulk Mbaraki, No.8, No.9, No.10 4 Berths Note: Bold character means main berths for major commodities. Note 2: Data on other liquid bulk is in 2014. Source: KPA and the Project Team

(3) Inadequate Berth Length for Calling Vessels Table 9.1.3 shows the number of vessels of which LOA exceed originally designed LOA of a berth in 2014. At Berth No.1, almost all vessels have longer LOA than designed LOA. Accordingly, Berth No.2 is also used to accommodate the ships. As a result, the number of calling ships is very limited at Berth No.2. Capacity of Berth No. 2 is not fully utilized. The same phenomenon is also observed at Berth No.16 and 17. There are officially 18 berths/wharfs in Mombasa Port but that number is misleading as the berths cannot be used effectively due to their inadequate length.

Table 9.1.3 Number of Vessels of which LOA Exceed Originally Designed LOA in 2014 Allowable Ships with Longer LOA Berth/ Wharf Number of Calling Ships Ratio LOA. than Designed LOA Mbaraki 276 m 7 0 0 % No.1 156 m 180 162 90 % No.2 150 m 4 3 75 % No.3 150 m 78 72 92 % No.4 171 m 95 23 24 % No.5 161 m 111 85 77 % No.7 187 m 62 23 37 % No.8 154 m 39 5 13 % No.9 162 m 62 52 84 % No.10 184 m 56 37 66 % No.11 166 m 106 69 65 % No.12 165 m 113 4 4 % No.13 157 m 104 84 81 % No.14 163 m 87 72 83 % No.16 160 m 108 101 94 %

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No.17 165 m 103 100 97 % No.18 215 m 116 36 31 % No.19 216 m 2 - - Total 1,433 928 65 % Source: KPA and the Project Team

(4) Low Productivity Productivities of major cargo in 2014 are summarized in Table 9.1.4. Motorcars are unloaded mainly at Berth No.1. There is no designated large parking area in Mombasa Port; unloaded vehicles park temporarily at various and scattered places in the port. If a large parking area were established for motorcars, productivity would become twice or three times the current level. Steel is handled by ship gear cranes and trucks in a narrow space because vacant transit sheds are located close to the quay-wall. If a wider space were provided for steel handling, productivity could be dramatically improved. Bulk wheat is unloaded at Berth No.3 where GBHL’s unloaders are located in. Long waiting time for berthing takes place at Berth No.3 due to the low capacity of existing equipment.Bulk clinker is unloaded mainly at Berth No.10. Productivity at Mbaraki Wharf is low due to the decrepit structure of the jetty and old cargo handling equipment. Bulk fertilizer is unloaded at Berth No.7 and 9. Additional processing of fertilizer, namely packing, is conducted on the apron. Apron is not a space for processing. If another place for storing and processing were to be acquired, productivity at quay-side could be dramatically improved.

Table 9.1.4 Productivity of Major cargo in 2014 Average Productivity Commodity Range of Productivity at Each Berth (ton/day) (ton/day) Motorcars 2,600-3,800 3,000 Steel 3,500-4,900 4,000 Container 900,000 TEU/year at Existing Container Terminals Bulk Wheat 7,600 7,500 Bulk Clinker 5,900-10,300 10,000 Bulk Fertilizer 2,000-2500 2,500 Bulk Coal 5,400-7,500 6,500 Other Liquid Bulk 3,600-14,700 9,000 Source: SAPROF Review Report, KPA and the Project Team

(5) Capacity Saturation with Cargo Demand Table 9.1.5 shows the number of required berths in 2014, namely 17.67 => 18 berths. There are officially 18 berths/wharfs in Mombasa Port but that number is misleading as the berths cannot be used effectively due to their inadequate length. Cargo volume has been reaching the port capacity.

Table 9.1.5 Number of Mooring Facilities Required in 2014 Productivity 2014 (1,000 ton/berth/year) Volume (1,000 ton) Required Berths Motor Vehicle 740 463 0.63 Steel 1,100 1,367 1.24 Other General Cargo2 210 1,442 6.87 Container 1,390 7,838 5.64 Total (General) 11,110 14.38

Bulk Wheat 2,070 1,908 0.92 Bulk Clinker 2,620 2,065 0.88 Bulk fertilizer 690 360 0.52

9-3 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

Productivity 2014 (1,000 ton/berth/year) Volume (1,000 ton) Required Berths Bulk Coal 1,700 436 0.26 Other Bulk Cargo 1,310 462 0.35 Total (Dry Bulk) 5,231 2.93

Other Liquid Bulk 2,480 900 0.36 Total 17,241 17.67

Note: Productivities except container are for existing ordinary berths with180 m length and -10m depth. Source: KPA and the Project Team

9.1.2 Future Cargo Demand

Table 9.1.6 shows the result of the demand forecast. Average growth rates from 2014 to 2035 by cargo type are as follows;

Table 9.1.6 Cargo Volume in Future

(Import) (x 1,000 tons) 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Iron & Steel 1,192 1,367 1,357 2,067 2,853 3,668 4,397 Rice 465 651 331 316 262 145 0 Sugar 207 231 435 558 688 826 973 Chemicals & Insecticides 254 390 260 260 260 260 260 Plastics 398 662 399 399 399 399 399 M/Vehicles & Lorries 366 463 487 742 1,025 1,318 1,580 Paper and Paper Production 300 503 431 645 881 1,127 1,346 Cereal Flour 41 49 75 75 75 75 75 Fertilizer 80 102 81 81 81 81 81 Maize in Bags 16 37 31 31 31 31 31 Wheat in Bags 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 Others 5,319 4,649 6,075 9,152 12,560 16,095 19,256 Total General Cargo 8,646 9,113 9,971 14,335 19,124 24,034 28,407

Wheat in Bulk 1,401 1,908 1,981 3,088 4,497 6,203 8,063 Clinker 2,228 2,065 2,690 4,436 6,370 8,375 10,169 Fertilizer in Bulk 603 360 579 579 579 829 829 Coal 296 436 396 582 788 1,001 1,192 Other Cereals in Bulk 156 184 106 106 106 106 106 Maize in Bulk 0 0 485 492 471 466 564 Others 229 278 306 459 629 805 962 Total Dry Bulk 4,913 5,231 6,543 9,742 13,440 17,785 21,885

P.O.L. 5,637 6,286 6,757 8,654 10,755 12,933 14,882 Other Liquid Bulk 900 906 995 1,324 1,688 2,065 2,403 Total Liquid Bulk 6,537 7,192 7,752 9,978 12,443 14,998 17,285

Grand Total (Import) 20,096 21,536 24,266 34,055 45,007 56,817 67,577

9-4 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

(Export) (x 1,000 tons) 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035 Tea 541 554 522 605 698 811 912 Soda Ash 423 336 355 465 588 737 870 Coffee 264 256 265 313 368 434 493 Others 840 851 965 1,269 1,608 2,022 2,391 Total General Cargo 2,068 1,997 2,107 2,652 3,262 4,004 4,666

Titanium 0 363 450 450 450 450 450 Soda Ash in Bulk 0 0 Cement in Bulk 0 0 Fluorspar 65 59 Other Dry Bulk 0 0 84 84 84 84 84 Total Dry Bulk 65 422 534 534 534 534 534

Bulk Oil 62 19 Bunkers 38 26 Total Liquid Bulk 100 45 112 112 112 112 112

Grand Total (Export) 2,233 2,464 2,753 3,298 3,908 4,650 5,312 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035 Total (Import, Export) 22,329 24,000 27,019 37,353 48,915 61,467 72,889

9.1.3 Mombasa Port Master Plan

(1) Basic Policies and Strategies of Port Development and Management a) Direction of Kenyan Economic Development “Kenya Vision 2030” is the country’s new development blueprint covering the period 2008 to 2030. The Vision is based on three “pillars”, namely the economic, the social and the political pillars. The economic pillar describes the economic vision and strategy. This economic vision and strategy shows six key sectors for sustainable economic development of Kenya; tourism, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, business process offshoring (BPO) and financial service. b) Roles and Functions of Mombasa Port for accomplishment of the Vision 2030 Since Mombasa Port has been the sole international gateway for not only Kenya but also landlocked neighboring countries including Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and D.R. Congo, Mombasa port should contribute toward the accomplishment of the Vision. Mombasa Port could support the tourism sector by means of providing a safe and comfortable international passenger terminal. Mombasa Port also could support the agriculture sector and the wholesale and retail sector as well as the manufacturing sector. Should more efficient and effective cargo (fertilizer and other commodities) handling be achieved in the port, the transport cost of commodities would decrease accordingly. Mombasa port shall play absolutely necessary roles to sustain people’s daily life and economic development of Kenya by means of providing all customers with rational and efficient maritime transport services. c) Basic Policies for Port Development Cargo handling capacity of the port has been saturated with the cargo demand already. Consequently, long waiting time for berthing due to berth occupied by another ship and low productivity in cargo handling takes place. Capacity development is an urgent issue to be tackled. Mombasa Port has various advantages in maritime transport, namely its long history as an

9-5 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation international port, being an international gateway port expected by other landlocked countries and having plenty of adjacent hinterland which could be developed as a large industrial area. Mombasa Port shall be developed taking these advantages into consideration. In this context, basic policies are set as follows;  To develop cargo handling capacity to meet the future cargo demand  To develop Mombasa Port in a comprehensive manner to meet various needs from other projects including Dongo Kundu SEZ, Mombasa Urban Development Project, Mombasa Bypass Highway project and other important projects. d) Overall Goals of Master Plan Overall goals of the Mombasa Port Master Plan are set as follows;  To strengthen its international gateway function not only for Kenya but also for landlocked neighboring countries including Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and D.R. Congo,  To develop the best and largest international maritime gateway port in the east African coast; container terminals will stretch 1,500 m length in Kipeve area.  To become the central area of free trade, manufacturing and processing in the east coast of Africa  To support the tourism sector  To contribute actively to solutions in urban issues including traffic congestion in Mombasa by means of vigorous utilization of railway and bypass highways. e) Strategies of the Master Plan Basic strategies of the Master Plan are set as follows;  To develop Mombasa Port in the most effective and efficient manner utilizing existing resources and potential of the port.  To maximize cargo handling capacity of the port. Overflowing cargo will be handled in other international ports including Lamu Port.  To develop required mooring and other facilities in a timely manner. These required facilities include terminals for MPDP, Dongo Kundu SEZ Project and other necessary projects.  To renew existing berths in Kilindini in series. Passenger facilities including a berth and terminal will be developed.  To introduce more efficient cargo handling equipment to cope with the critical shortage of berths.  To ensure the maritime safety and security  To preserve and improve the natural environment in and around the port f) Spatial Utilization Plan In order to rationalize spatial utilization in the port, two types of long-term spatial utilization plans are prepared. One is on line with current spatial utilization and the other is a modified plan in which some kinds of bulk cargo will be relocated from the existing area to Dongo Kundu Area. Figure 9.1.1 shows the former and Figure 9.1.2 shows the latter.

9-6 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

Figure 9.1.1 Spatial Utilization Plan (Base Case (Scenario 1)) Source: The Project Team

Figure 9.1.2 Spatial Utilization Plan (Alternative (Scenario 2)) Source: The Project Team

9-7 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation g) Scale of Development Major Facilities to be developed  Container Terminal: At Kipevu area, international container berths of 1,500m in length (Draft -15m, Length 300m x 5 berths) should be developed targeting for 60,000 DWT (4,000-5,000 TEU) class container vessels.  Multi-purpose Terminal: At Dongo Kundu area, international multi-purpose berths of 600m in length (Draft -14m, Length 300m x 2 berths) should be developed targeting for 30,000 DWT (8,000 units) class car carriers, 70,000 DWT class dry bulk carriers and other vessels.  General Cargo Terminal: At Lighter area, 720m international general cargo berths of 720m in length (Draft -10m, Length 180m x 4 berths) should be developed targeting for 20,000DWT class general cargo vessels.  Cruise Ship Terminal: A cruise vessel terminal (Draft -10.0m, Air draft 63m, Length 350m), targeting for 130,000GT class cruse vessel should be developed. (Transformation of existing Berth No.1 and No.2 from general cargo terminal to cruise terminal at Klindini area or new development near Lighter area)  Petroleum Jetty: At the area in front of Navy Grand, a new oil jetty platforms consisting of 4 berths should be developed. These 4 berths are targeting for 5,000 - 200,000DWT oil tankers (with tidal advantage). Economic Aspect Total investment including public and private sector are between US$ 20.2 billion to US$ 23.4 billion.

9-8 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

(2) Facility Development and Improvement Plan a) Up to 2020 Figure 9.1.3 shows the development plan up to 2020.

Figure 9.1.3 Development Plan up to 2020 Source: The Project Team b) 2021 - 2025 Figure 9.1.4 and Figure 9.1.5 show the development plan in 2021 to 2025.

9-9 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

Figure 9.1.4 Development Plan in 2021 to 2025 (1) Source: The Project Team

Figure 9.1.5 Development Plan in 2021 to 2025 (2) Source: The Project Team

9-10 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation c) 2026 - 2030 Base Case (Scenario 1) Figure 9.1.6 shows the development plan in 2026 to 2030.

Figure 9.1.6 Development Plan in 2028 (Base Case (Scenario 1) Source: The Project Team

Alternative (Scenario 2) Figure 9.1.7 and Figure 9.1.8 show the development plan in 2026 to 2030.

9-11 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

Figure 9.1.7 Development Plan in 2026 and 2028 (Alternative (Scenario 2) (1) Source: The Project Team

Figure 9.1.8 Development Plan in 2026 and 2028 (Alternative (Scenario 2) (2) Source: The Project Team

9-12 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation d) 2031- 2035 Base Case (Scenario 1) Figure 9.1.9 shows the development plan in 2026 to 2030.

Figure 9.1.9 Development Plan in 2032 (Base Case (Scenario 1) Source: The Project Team b. Alternative (Scenario 2) Figure 9.1.10 shows the development plan in 2026 to 2030.

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Figure 9.1.10 Development Plan in 2032 (Alternative (Scenario 2) Source: The Project Team

(3) Administrative Development a) Structural Reform KPA shall accelerate institutional reform and transform itself from a “Service Port” to a “Landlord Port”. KPA currently owns most of the port infrastructure and undertakes the majority of port operations. The shift in the role of KPA from port service provider to landlord and regulator is a difficult change management exercise. The Government of Kenya committed to transforming Mombasa to a landlord port in 2002, but there has been little progress on implementation. There can be no strategic port management until the roles of the public and private sectors are clearly defined in a low. It will require new skills, institutional capabilities, and practices including regulating unfair and anti-competitive practices, designing and negotiating contracts with private providers of port services, performance monitoring and ensuring compliance with standards.

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9.2 Recommendation

9.2.1 Efficient port operation

(1) PPP scheme at new container terminals in Kipevu area To realize the efficient and global operation of port, PPP scheme and concessioned terminal operation should be introduced in development and operation of new container terminals in Kipevu area, and multi-purpose terminals in Dongo Kundu area. (2) Improvement of existing cargo handling equipment/systems Chapter 6 of this master plan, “Mombasa Port Development Plan including Dongo Kundu Area”, introduced the following assumption on future improvement of cargo handling productivity.  Productivities except container and other liquid bulk will increase 10 % in 2020 and 2025.  Productivities except container and other liquid bulk will increase 20 % in 2030 and 2035.  Productivity of container will be stable. Since current productivity at the existing berths seems to have almost reached the maximum and that of the second container terminal (MPDP) is expected to be very high, it is not realistic to expect productivities to increase in future.  Productivity of other liquid bulk will increase 20 % in 2020 and 2025.  Productivity of other liquid bulk will increase 40 % in 2030 and 2035. These improvements by means of introduction of new and larger cargo handling equipment/systems are inevitable to implement the master plan. Specified issues of current cargo handling are as follows; Motorcars are unloaded mainly at Berth No.1. There is no designated large parking area in Mombasa Port; unloaded vehicles park temporarily at various and scattered places in the port. If a large parking area were established for motorcars, productivity would become twice or three times the current level. Steel is handled by ship gear cranes and trucks in a narrow space because vacant transit sheds are located close to the quay-wall. If a wider space were provided for steel handling, productivity could be dramatically improved. Container handling productivity has already been surveyed in the “SAPROF Review Report.” Bulk wheat is unloaded at Berth No.3 where GBHL’s unloaders are located in. Long waiting time for berthing takes place at Berth No.3 due to the low capacity of existing equipment. Bulk clinker is unloaded mainly at Berth No.10. Productivity at Mbaraki Wharf is low due to the decrepit structure of the jetty and old cargo handling equipment. Bulk fertilizer is unloaded at Berth No.7 and 9. Additional processing of fertilizer, namely packing, is conducted on the apron. Apron is not a space for processing. If another place for storing and processing were to be acquired, productivity at quay-side could be dramatically improved.

9.2.2 Improvement of gate system

Container positioning document system in the port gate and terminal gate should be reviewed, and automated and advanced gate system and container transport booking system should be introduced to cope with the increase of container cargo. Container trailers should pass through gates more smoothly and rapidly.

9.2.3 Harmonization of road and railway

China will supply the initial rolling stock comprising 56 diesel locomotives, 1,620 wagons and 40

9-15 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation coaches. If the availability ratio of wagons is assumed to be 50%, and one wagon carries 4 TEUs containers, annual transport volume by train becomes 1183,000 TEUs. Container demand in 2035 will be 3789,000 TEUs. Therefore, transport ratio by rail will be 31%. In the case of 2 TEU in one wagon, its ratio will decrease to 16%. In addition, container cargo volume which is transit to landlocked countries is 104,500 TEUs (3% in total) in 2035. Container logistics is always carried out based on the concept of just in time. Cargo owners who prefer to use railway are in the minority. This means that road transportation is main player for container while rail transportation is a side player. Road access development to the port should be prioritized.

9.2.4 Channel dredging, reclamation and environmental mitigation

Implementation of this port master plan involves a huge amount of channel dredging and reclamation works. Site selection in an offshore of Mombasa to dispose dredged material and collect sea sand material for the reclamation, should be carefully examined. In addition, impacts to mangrove forests should be mitigated, and the relocation of local port inhabitant should be minimized when possible.

9.2.5 Master plan adjustment in every 5 years

To realize this master plan, a huge amount of financial resource and investment are required. This master plan should be implemented step by step examining the economic situation in Kenya and should be adjusted every 5 years. In addition, financial sources should be carefully examined.

9.2.6 Strengthen port administration and coordination power of MOTI

MOTI ensures regulatory framework, enforces authorities/state corporations who manage and implement their projects, and harmonize their missions under the Ministry. The Transport and Infrastructure Departments are responsible for the development of the regulatory framework, which is enforced through the authorities and state corporations under the ministry; Each Authority has the same power in its administration and operation, which means resolving contradiction(s) in projects’ interfaces is often time-consuming. For example, the Highway Project vs Railway Project and Container Terminal Project vs Railway Project still require further coordination for practical solutions Planning and project monitoring are handled in the transport department headquarter but there is no planning and coordination department between transport and infrastructure departments. In other words, establish a port and harbor division within MOTI having administrative functions such as to approve port development plans and to establish port and harbor related laws. Moreover, a development coordination division under direct control of each ministry is proposed to coordinate projects among ministries. It is expected that the Ministry will pay the leading role in inter-sectorial coordination in the master plans.

9.2.7 Establishment Port Division in MOTI and enactment of a new Port Act

KPA Act has provided for the continued application of the East African Harbor Regulations of 1970 promulgated under the East African Railways and Harbors Act. However changes in shipping, port development and technology, growth in trade, development of larger and more specialized terminals, the need to comply with international legislation and keep abreast of industry practices. Many of the existing regulations and KPA Act fossilized development and management of coastal area. For example, port planning and coordination protocol is not clarified in the KPA Act. That is why other authorities does not respect a master plan established by KPA. A new Port Act, in line with modern international trends, should be prepared. Roles among policy maker, regulator, manager, and operator

9-16 Mombasa Port Master Plan including Dongo Kundu Final Report - October 2015 9. Conclusion and Recommendation should be clearly demarcated. At the same time, Port Division in MOTI also should be established.

9.2.8 Study on new international port development plan in Kenya

Mombasa port is the port for 5 countries’ economy, not only for Kenya's. KPA should challenge not only to renew the rules and regulations for port management, but also to develop a new international port. A total cargo demand including import and export in 2035 will be 72.9 million tons in Mombasa Port. On the other hand, the future capacity in the new development master plan of Mombasa port including Dongo Kundu area is 52.4 million tons, which means 20.5 million tons of cargo will not be able to absorb in Mombasa port. Lamu port in the north part of Kenya is on the way to be developed but the start of Lamu port operation is not clear now. In addition, the friction between port and urban activities in Mombasa will increase even if development of bye pass highways, standard gage railway and Dongo Kundu area terminals are developed. Therefore a study of new international port development should be start earlier. Malindi area might be considered as one of proposed sites for a new international port.

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