THE GREEN SHEET

Volume XXVI – Issue 25 January 26, 2016

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SUPER BOWL 50 ISSUE 24-7 RUN IN NFL PLAYOFF SIDE PICKS Between the Lines... 2015-16 GREEN SHEET – 6-3 in NFL Playoff Sides There will certainly be a lot of comparisons between XLVIII and We split on side plays last week but clinched another winning NFL next week’s matchup for the obvious correlation between two Playoffs, now riding 24-7 side play run in the NFL Playoffs the past led Broncos teams heading into a matchup with an up-and- three seasons. Our total play last week was also a winner. This is the coming NFC squad with an opportunistic defense. There are some similarities final issue of the football season, thank you for subscribing this season in the matchup but the biggest commonalities are not the ones most people we hope you’ve enjoyed the content and had some positive results are making. The eventual Super Bowl champion 2013 Seahawks team looks

following our selections. We’ve already started preparations for next a lot more like the 2015 than the 2015 . The 2013 Broncos team was an offensive machine, leading the league in football season and we hope you’ll join us again. scoring (like the 2015 Panthers) by a wide margin and being by far the top

offensive team in terms of total yardage (actually producing 90 more yards

per game than this year’s Panthers team and nearly 102 yards per game

more than the Broncos this season). It was the 2013 Seahawks that had a RECENT SUPER BOWL RESULTS limited offense (18th in the league in total offense, Denver is 16th this

season) and a that brought some question marks with his ability 2/1/15 XLIX New England (+1) 28, 24 (47) to move the ball downfield through the air, often settling for check downs and 2/2/14 XLVIII Seattle (+2) 43, Denver 8 (47) working with conservative play calls. It was also the Seahawks that had the 2/3/13 XLVII Baltimore (+4.5) 34, San Francisco 31 (48) league’s best defense in many areas (like the 2015 Broncos) with Denver’s 2/5/12 XLVI NY Giants (+3) 21, New England 17 (55) defense this season allowing about 10 more yards per game than Seattle’s 2/6/11 XLV Green Bay (-3) 31, Pittsburgh 25 (44.5) league-leading 2013 squad. That 10 yard gap is actually about the same 2/7/10 XLIV (+4.5) 31, Indianapolis 17 (56.5) production average gap between Carolina’s offense and Denver’s offense this 2/1/09 XLIII Pittsburgh (-6.5) 27, Arizona 23 (46.5) season despite the great contrast in the perception between the offensive 2/3/08 XLII NY Giants (+12.5) 17, New England 14 (54.5) ability of these teams. Carolina’s scoring led the league with an incredible 2/4/07 XLI Indianapolis (-6.5) 29, Chicago 17 (47) turnover margin being a huge factor with the Panthers scoring almost nine 2/5/06 XL Pittsburgh (-4) 21, Seattle 10 (47) more points per game in the regular season compared with the Broncos, but 2/6/05 XXXIX New England (-7) 24, Philadelphia 21 (47) facing just five top 12 yards-per-play defenses this season while Denver has 2/1/04 XXXVIII New England (-7) 32, Carolina 29 (38) faced 10 such teams. Denver actually had one more defensive touchdown 1/26/03 XXXVII Tampa Bay (+3.5) 48, Oakland 21 (43.5) than Carolina in the regular season despite the focus on Carolina making big 2/3/02 XXXVI New England (+14) 20, St. Louis 17 (53) game-changing plays as the Panthers also had defensive scores in each 1/28/01 XXXV Baltimore (-3) 34, NY Giants 7 (33.5) playoff game. ’s unique ability to excel in 3rd down and red zone 1/30/00 XXXIV St. Louis (-7) 23, Tennessee 16 (48) situations will be the key area that should decide the Super Bowl. Denver won 1/31/99 XXXIII Denver (-7.5) 34, Atlanta 19 (51.5) the AFC Championship by getting big 3rd (and 4th) down stops vs. New 1/25/98 XXXII Denver (+11.5) 31, Green Bay 24 (49) England while holding the Patriots to just one short-field touchdown until the 1/26/97 XXXI Green Bay (-14) 35, New England 21 (49.5) final seconds of the game produced a second end zone strike. The Broncos 1/28/96 XXX Dallas (-13.5) 27, Pittsburgh 17 (51.5) will need to get those same big stops and leave to lead the 1/29/95 XXIX San Francisco (-19) 49, 26 (54.5) scoring for the Panthers rather than Newton. The Denver team that was 1/30/94 XXVIII Dallas (-10.5) 30, Buffalo 13 (50) ambushed by Seattle in New Jersey two years ago had a very mediocre 1/31/93 XXVII Dallas (-6.5) 52, Buffalo 17 (44.5) defense that allowed 73 more yards per game and nearly a touchdown more 1/26/92 XXVI (-7) 37, Buffalo 24 (48) per game than this year’s Denver squad as there are very few similarities 1/27/91 XXV NY Giants (+7) 20, Buffalo 19 (37) between the two Super Bowl defenses for the Broncos. Carolina’s defense 1/28/90 XXIV San Francisco (-12) 55, Denver 10 (47) this season statistically falls right in between those two Denver units and falls 1/22/89 XXIII San Francisco (-7) 20, Cincinnati 16 (48) nowhere near the numbers of the 2013 Seattle squad that they are drawing 1/31/88 XXII Washington (+3.5) 42, Denver 10 comparisons to, that team allowed just 14.4 points per game and fewer than 1/25/87 XXI NY Giants (-9.5) 39, Denver 20 274 yards per game. When looking at the season team statistics a better 1/26/86 XX Chicago (-10) 46, New England 10 comparison might be last season’s Super Bowl with the Panthers and the 1/20/85 XIX San Francisco (-3) 38, Miami 16 2014 Patriots being a much better comparison and this season’s Broncos 1/22/84 XVIII LA Raiders (+3) 38, Washington 9 team featuring very similar yardage and scoring numbers to last year’s 1/30/83 XVII San Francisco (+1) 26, Cincinnati 21 Seahawks team. Super Bowl XLIX was one of the best in recent years and a 1/25/81 XVI Oakland (+3) 27, Philadelphia 10 game that could have gone either way as the Patriots incredibly emerged as

28-24 victors, overcoming a turnover deficit with an edge on 3rd downs being

a big area of success. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…

Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet Newsletter - Copyright © 2016 All rights reserved. Nelly’s Sportsline is a registered trademark. This content is protected and unauthorized duplication, sharing, or posting, is strictly prohibited. Violators will be prosecuted. SUPER BOWL 50 ‘OVER’/’UNDER’ PLAY

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2016 NFL: ‘UNDER 45’ Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos Carolina’s defense has had vulnerability against the pass despite its incredibly Carolina Panthers (-4½) Denver Broncos (45) 5:30 PM CT opportunistic secondary and corps. Denver’s strength certainly is not in At Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, the vertical game however as incredibly the Broncos have advanced to the Super It is no secret that turnovers are paramount in determining success in the NFL in any Bowl with two playoffs wins with a net total of 360 passing yards, just 36 more given game and the Panthers are now +8 in turnovers in two playoff games after yards through the air than the Panthers had last week vs. Arizona’s defense. If finishing a league-leading +20 in the regular season. Carolina’s defense has now forced any team is immune to the pressure and tightness that can come with a game of 30 interceptions and 18 fumbles in 18 games for simply remarkable numbers. In this magnitude it could be a Panthers team that has played with a loose style all contrast Denver finished -4 in the regular season but is +2 in the two narrow playoff season under Cam Newton’s charismatic lead but this will be a huge stage and a wins. For the third straight season it will be the two #1 seeds facing off in the Super different set of circumstances and obligations surrounding a game. It is a stage Bowl as home field held again in this year’s playoffs. The NFC has won eight of the 11 that many on the Broncos were humiliated in two years ago as well. It won’t be a Super Bowls in which that has occurred but last year the AFC did come out on top. The surprise if this total climbs higher and going against the majority means there may Broncos now have seven wins vs. what have been deemed top 10 NFL teams this season while the Panthers have doubled their total of top 10 wins in the past two weeks. be an advantage to gain by waiting out the number. With the ‘over’ 4-2 in the last Denver unquestionably played the far more difficult schedule on the season but they six Super Bowls the total in Super Bowls is notoriously set high yet this figure is were far less impressive in doing so finishing 12-4 and just modestly +59 in point lower than the closing number of nine of the last 10 Super Bowls with two elite differential. Carolina will attract a lot of attention as a 15-1 squad that was +192 in point defensive teams involved. Denver has held 15 of 18 opponents to 24 or fewer differential. The Panthers only faced four playoff teams in the regular season beating the points this season while Carolina has done the same in 14 of 18 games with the division champions of the NFC East and AFC South, clearly the worst divisions in the Panthers perhaps not getting enough respect for holding Seattle and Arizona to a league, as well as securing narrow wins over both NFC wild card teams. The Broncos combined total of 7 points in the first halves of two playoff games. After taking heat went 5-2 vs. 2015 playoff teams in the regular season and while Denver deserves for allowing Seattle back in the game the Panthers were very aggressive in the criticism for having now 11 wins by seven or fewer points they have also only lost by second half against a quick-strike Arizona team but that approach won’t make more than seven points once. Obviously 17-1 Carolina can make the same claim with sense vs. a Denver team looking for methodical sustained drives and possessing only a seven-point loss at Atlanta in Week 16 as the lone blemish on the resume. The a limited big play ability. Ultimately conservative calls and the punting game may schedule has played a role in shaping the numbers but as expected several defensive lead the way unless one side pulls away early to change the course of the game. factors favor the Broncos, particularly pass defense numbers. Carolina has some clear The Panthers obviously hit this mark on their own last week but Denver knows it offensive edges in the running game as well as edges in scoring and turnover can’t commit turnovers in this game as the Broncos will again lean on its defense categories as well. Denver was the league’s #1 yards per play defense and despite facing two playoff games vs. teams that don’t run the ball particularly well the Broncos and the field position game while the Panthers will face the league’s best defense. were the #1 rushing defense in the NFL in yards per attempt. While Carolina is viewed While the 49ers deserve much of the blame the ‘under’ went 7-1 at Levi’s Stadium as a great rushing team they finished just 11th in the league in rush yards per attempt this season with no game all year featuring more than 45 points. The turf in the on offense, just ahead of Denver, but they were second in the league in rushing yards young stadium has routinely been criticized for being soft with some sinking spots per game, posting over 143 yards per game. Peyton Manning’s season numbers were which could give the defenses the edge in a game with offenses that will hope to alarming but he has played two relatively clean playoff games the past two weeks lean on the rushing attack and conservative pass plays in this game. outside of a fairly fluky fumble on a narrowly backwards pass. Manning in perhaps his last game will dominate the storylines but Cam Newton will be on the biggest stage of his career five seasons in hoping to finish off a possible MVP season with the first Super Bowl win for the Panthers. Newton lacks great conventional numbers as he was a less LAST WEEK’S STATS than 60 percent passer this season and actually totaled fewer passing yards and a worse passing percentage than in his rookie season. He did trim his turnovers this Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO season with just 11 for the lowest mark of his career and incredibly accounted for 35 PATRIOTS -3 18 20 17 44 27 56 292 2 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns. Newton’s size and ability made the BRONCOS 45 20 12 30 99 17 32 145 1 Panthers the top red zone scoring team in the league converting touchdowns on 70 CARDINALS 47.5 15 21 16 60 23 41 227 7 percent of those opportunities and perhaps that is the biggest disconnect in this PANTHERS -3 49 21 37 152 19 28 324 1 matchup as the Broncos converted touchdowns in less than 48 percent of red zone opportunities, 27th in the league. Denver also finished 27th in the league in 3rd down conversion rate, an area the Panthers also excelled. So many playoff games and past Super Bowls have come down to the kicking game and the numbers place both kickers near league-average. Brandon McManus missed five field goals and one extra-point to EARLY BIRD RATE FOR 2016-17 best six field goal and three extra-point misses for Graham Gano. McManus is 7 for 7 in postseason kicks but all of those came in the mountain air in Denver while Gano has really had few pressure-packed kicks this season. was certainly an Thank you for being a part of the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet unsung hero for the Broncos last week and he has been the best in the playoffs. newsletter this season. We hope you enjoyed our content and we look Both defenses have been tremendously effective in different ways this season with the

pressure from the Broncos forcing Tom Brady into one of his worst playoff performances forward to providing another great experience next season. ever and the Patriots converting only two 3rd downs in the game with Denver being one of the top 3rd down defenses in the league all season, going up against the strength for Carolina. The Panthers have often played with a big lead which certainly has helped to JOE NELSON PICKS pad the turnover numbers. From an opening number of -3½ quickly jumping past -4 to - 4½ the bulk of the action figures to support the Panthers coming off a dominant win over At www.vegasinsider.com an Arizona team many had rated as the league’s best most of the season. Carolina certainly benefitted from playing at home more than any other team in the league as they were 7-1 on the road with just a +64 point differential and only one win over a Great All Sport Records: winning team away from home. Denver only beat one playoff team on the road as well but the Broncos actually had a stronger point differential away from home this season. As impressive as they looked last week Carolina’s success has been built on turnovers through a soft schedule and if the Broncos can protect the ball and sustain a few key NFL drives while getting stops in a similar approach as the past two weeks vs. dangerous passing teams they can certainly stay in this game with an attractive underdog price on 48-37-2, +753 a Broncos team that has played exclusively close games, and waiting until close to game day may be the strategy as action will be heavy on Carolina. PANTHERS BY 3 NCAA BASKETBALL HISTORICALLY SPEAKING 49-36-4, +1,028

All trends are Against the Spread unless noted: Some pointspreads have been estimated and may not be accurate by game time NBA BASKETBALL DD=double-digit, R=road, H=home, F=favorite, D=dog, L=last, S/U=straight-up 29-22-1, +521 TEAM TRENDS (Trends current through January 24, 2016): Carolina is 17-1 S/U and 13-5 ATS this season - Over/Under in Carolina games this season is 12/5/1 Carolina is 6-9 as a favorite away from home since ’12 - Carolina is 11-15-1 after scoring 40+ since ‘97 Carolina is 5-8-1 the last 14 games as a favorite of more than 3 points Carolina is 22-4-1 S/U and 16-11 ATS following a S/U & ATS win since ‘11 www.vegasinsider.com Denver is 14-4 S/U and 9-7-2 ATS this season - Over/Under in Denver games this season is 6/11/1 Denver is 5-0 this season as an underdog - Denver is 29-21 as an underdog of 4 or more since ‘95 Denver is 16-8 S/U and 14-10 ATS following a S/U dog win since ‘06 Denver is 3-1 S/U & 2-2 ATS vs. Carolina all-time since ‘97