Source: BuddeComm

April 24, 2020 11:00 ET

Netherlands preparing for 5G network sharing scheme

Netherlands - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

Sydney, April 24, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Just released, this edition of Paul Budde Communication’s focus report on Netherlands outlines the major developments and key aspects in the telecoms markets. Read the full report: https://www.budde.com.au/Research/Netherlands-Telecoms-Mobile-and-Broadband- Statistics-and-Analyses

This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in the Netherlands’ market. The report analyses the fixed-line, mobile and broadband sectors. Subjects include:

Market and industry analyses, trends and developments; Facts, figures and statistics; Industry and regulatory issues; Infrastructure developments; Major Players, Revenues, Subscribers, ARPU, MoU; Mobile Voice and Data Markets; Broadband (FttP, DSL, cable, wireless); Mobile subscribers and ARPU; Broadband market forecasts; Government policies affecting the telecoms industry; Market liberalisation and industry issues; Telecoms operators – privatisation, IPOs, acquisitions, new licences; Mobile technologies (GSM; 3G, HSPA, LTE, 5G).

Researcher:- Henry Lancaster Current publication date:- November 2019 (17th Edition)

Executive Summary

Netherlands preparing for 5G network sharing scheme

In common with other telecom markets in the region, the Dutch market is seeing a continuing decline in the fixed- line voice market as customers migrate to VoIP and mobile platforms for voice calls. In addition, the physical copper infrastructure is being replaced with fibre. KPN planned to stop marketing PSTN lines during 2020 and focus on IP connectivity. As part of this process, some customers in rural areas, where the cost of deploying fibre is prohibitive, are being served with hybrid DSL/LTE services while for a number of customers 5G will replace fixed-line connectivity for voice and data services in coming years.

The country has one of the highest fixed broadband penetration rates in the world, with effective cross-platform competition between DSL and HFC networks further stimulated by numerous fibre deployments. By early 2019 about 44% of fixed broadband connections provided data above 100Mb/s. Under regulatory measures main telcos KPN and VodafoneZiggo are obliged to offer wholesale access to competitors: VodafoneZiggo’s wholesale offer was published in March 2019.

Growth in the number of mobile subscribers in the Dutch market recovered in 2018 following a few years of stagnation. Operators are concentrating investment on 5G, while KPN is also closing 3G infrastructure with a view to refarming spectrum and other assets for LTE and 5G services.

This report details the key aspects of the Dutch telecom market, providing data on fixed network services, profiles of the major operators, and a review of the key regulatory issues including interconnection, local loop unbundling, number portability, carrier preselection, and the provisions for competitor access to cable and fibre infrastructure. In addition, the report covers the fixed and wireless broadband markets, including statistics and analyses on technology deployments. The report also assesses the mobile voice and data segments, detailing the strategies of the MNOs, the deployment of emerging technologies, and a range of regulatory issues. A range of subscriber forecasts to 2024 are also provided. BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.

On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.

Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.

The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.

Key developments:

KPN to stop offering ISDN2/PSTN services; VodafoneZiggo publishes wholesale reference offer; Government invests €90 million in smart infrastructure project; Netherlands Telecom Agency given oversight for smart meter deployments; KPN reports recovery in revenue for 9M 2019; Regulator to issue guidelines on infrastructure sharing to promote 5G rollouts, aims to recall unused mobile numbers; T-Mobile Netherlands trials 5G using spectrum in the 700MHz band; KPN preps for 5G trials, plans 3G network shutdown in 2022, closes down four sub-brands; MNOs join with banks to launch m-payments system; Report update includes the regulator's market data to Q4 2018, telcos' operating and financial data to Q3 2019, Telecom Maturity Index charts and analyses, assessment of the global impact of COVID-19 on the telecoms sector, recent market developments.

Companies mentioned in this report:

KPN, UPC Netherlands, Netherlands, Stipte (Scarlet Telecom), , VodafoneZiggo, Orange Netherlands, Versatel, T-Mobile Netherlands, Reggefiber

Key statistics Regional European Market Comparison Europe Telecom Maturity Index by tier Market Leaders Market Challengers Market Emergents TMI versus GDP Mobile and mobile broadband penetration Fixed versus mobile broadband penetration Country overview COVID-19 and its impact on the telecom sector Economic considerations and responses Mobile devices Subscribers Infrastructure Telecommunications market Market analysis Regulatory environment Historical overview Regulatory authority Telecom sector liberalisation Interconnect Access Cable access Fibre access Number Portability (NP) Carrier PreSelection (CPS) Wholesale Line Rental (WLR) Fixed network operators Royal Koninklijke PTT Nederland (KPN) Scarlet Telecom (Stipte) Versatel Telecom International VodafoneZiggo Telecommunications infrastructure National telecom network International infrastructure Smart infrastructure Wholesale Wholesale broadband access Broadband market Introduction and statistical overview Market analysis Government support Broadband statistics Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC) networks Introduction VodafoneZiggo Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) networks Introduction VDSL Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP) networks Regulating fibre KPN Government, councils and telcos involved Other fixed broadband services Wireless Local Loop (WLL) Wireless LANS/Wi-Fi WiMAX Internet via satellite Mobile communications Market analysis Mobile statistics General statistics Mobile infrastructure Digital networks Internet of Things (IoT) Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Mobile voice Mobile data Multimedia Messaging Services (MMS) Mobile broadband Regulatory issues Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions Mobile Termination Rates (MTRs) Mobile Number Portability (MNP) Roaming Network sharing Major mobile operators KPN VodafoneZiggo T-Mobile Netherlands Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) Mobile content and applications M-payments Satellite mobile Appendix – Historic data Glossary of abbreviations Related reports

List of Tables

Table 1 – Top Level Country Statistics and Telco Authorities - Netherlands – 2019 (e) Table 2 – Change in telecom infrastructure investment by sector – 2012 – 2018 Table 3 – Change in the number of wholesale unbundled connections – 2014 – 2018 Table 4 – Wholesale fibre active unbundled connections – 2014 – 2018 Table 5 – Decline in the number of WLR lines – 2008 – 2019 Table 6 – Decline in fixed-line revenue (PSTN, VoB) – 2006 – 2018 Table 7 – Decline in VoIP and PSTN traffic – 2016 – 2018 Table 8 – Decline in fixed-line traffic revenue – 2006 – 2018 Table 9 – Change in fixed-line service revenue by retail, wholesale – 2013 – 2018 Table 10 – Development of KPN’s annual net line loss (consumer) – 2005 – 2019 Table 11 – Decline in the number of KPN’s connected PSTN households (consumer) – 2005 – 2019 Table 12 – Change in the number of KPN’s RGUs by platform (consumer) – 2015 – 2019 Table 13 – Development of KPN Group’s financial data – 2009 – 2019 Table 14 – KPN financial data by sector (Netherlands) – 2005 – 2019 Table 15 – Development of VodafoneZiggo’s financial data – 2006 – 2019 Table 16 – Change in VodafoneZiggo’s subscriber base by platform – 2007 – 2019 Table 17 – Fixed lines in services by type (retail) – 2008 – 2018 Table 18 – Proportion of fixed-lines churned and disconnected – 2015 – 2018 Table 19 – Decline in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity – 2009 – 2024 Table 20 – Growth in international internet bandwidth – 2009 – 2016 Table 21 – Development of KPN’s wholesale connections by type – 2015 – 2019 Table 22 – Proportion of retail broadband service connections with bundle types – 2015 – 2018 Table 23 – Change in the number of fixed broadband retail subscribers by platform – 2010 – 2018 Table 24 – Change in fixed-line broadband market share by technology – 2008 – 2018 Table 25 – Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2009 – 2024 Table 26 – Change in the proportion of broadband connections by speed – 2010 – 2018 Table 27 – Development of broadband penetration by technology – 2007 – 2018 Table 28 – Increase in the number of retail cable broadband subscribers – 2009 – 2018 Table 29 – Development of cable broadband connections by speed – 2010 – 2018 Table 30 – Development of VodafoneZiggo’s cable broadband financial data – 2006 – 2019 Table 31 – Growth in VodafoneZiggo’s broadband subscriber base – 2007 – 2019 Table 32 – Change in KPN’s consumer retail broadband subscriber base – 2007 – 2019 Table 33 – Decline in the number of DSL subscribers – 2000 – 2018 Table 34 – Development of DSL broadband connections by speed – 2010 – 2018 Table 35 – Increase in the number of premises connected and passed with upgraded copper – 2014 – 2018 Table 36 – Increase in the number of FttP premises connected and passed – 2006 – 2018 Table 37 – Growth in the number of FttP subscribers – 2006 – 2018 Table 38 – Change in the number of FttP retail and wholesale business connections – 2015 – 2018 Table 39 – Unbundled fibre broadband connections from KPN, by platform – 2015 – 2018 Table 40 – Development of fibre broadband connections by speed – 2013 – 2018 Table 41 – Decline in mobile retail and wholesale revenue – 2013 – 2018 Table 42 – Change in mobile services revenue by sector– 2008 – 2018 Table 43 – Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2009 – 2024 Table 44 – Change in mobile subscriber market share of subscribers by operator – 2006 – 2018 Table 45 – Change in prepaid and contract subscribers by market share (MNOS) – 2008 – 2018 Table 46 – Change in the number of prepaid and contract subscribers (retail, MNOs) – 2007 – 2018 Table 47 – Growth in the number of mobile antennae in service by technology – 2014 – 2019 Table 48 – Investment in mobile infrastructure – 2012 – 2018 Table 49 – Increase in the number of M2M connections – 2010 – 2018 Table 50 – Growth in mobile voice traffic – 2007 – 2018 Table 51 – Growth in mobile data traffic – 2008 – 2018 Table 52 – Growth in mobile data traffic, quarterly change – 2016 – 2018 Table 53 – Decline in SMS traffic – 2008 – 2018 Table 54 – Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers and penetration – 2009 – 2024 Table 55 – Change in the number of mobile broadband subscribers by type – 2009 – 2018 Table 56 – 3G licence awards (spectrum, spectrum fees and admin fees) – July 2000 Table 57 – Decline in wholesale termination revenue – 2007 – 2018 Table 58 – Increase in wholesale terminated traffic – 2010 – 2018 Table 59 – Change in the number of KPN Mobile’s consumer retail and wholesale subscribers – 2006 – 2019 Table 60 – Development of KPN Mobile’s revenue by type – 2015 – 2019 Table 61 – KPN Mobile revenue by quarter – 2015 – 2019 Table 62 – KPN mobile monthly ARPU – 2006 – 2019 Table 63 – Development of VodafoneZiggo’s mobile revenue – 2016 – 2019 Table 64 – Change in the number of VodafoneZiggo mobile subscribers – 2009 – 2019 Table 65 – VodafoneZiggo ARPU – 2009 – 2019 Table 66 – Change in the number of T-Mobile Netherlands’ subscribers by type– 2006 – 2019 Table 67 – Development of T-Mobile Netherlands’ financial data – 2006 – 2019 Table 68 – Growth in the number of MVNO subscribers and market share – 2005 – 2018 Table 69 – Historic - Fixed lines in service and teledensity – 1999 – 2009 Table 70 – Historic - KPN Group financial data – 2004 – 2009 Table 71 – Historic - UPC Nederland subscribers – 2005 – 2014 Table 72 – Historic - KPN consumer market share by sector – 2007 – 2017 Table 73 – Historic – International internet bandwidth – 1998 – 2009 Table 74 – Historic - CPS connections – 2008 – 2014 Table 75 – Historic - Fixed-line traffic by type – 2008 – 2015 Table 76 – Historic - Tele2 Netherlands residential subscribers by type – 2007 – 2018 Table 77 – Historic - Tele2 Netherlands revenue by sector – 2007 – 2018 Table 78 – Historic - Unbundled MDF connections by type – 2008 – 2015 Table 79 – Historic - Broadband retail subscribers (cable , DSL, fibre) – 1999 – 2009 Table 80 – Historic - KPN/Reggefiber FttP activated premises – 2009 – 2015 Table 81 – Historic - UPC Nederland subscribers – 2005 – 2014 Table 82 – Historic - UPC Netherlands revenue (€) – 2007 – 2014 Table 83 – Historic - UPC Netherlands revenue by segment (€) – 2012 – 2014 Table 84 – Historic - Tele2 Netherlands’ DSL subscribers – 2006 – 2018 Table 85 – Historic - Mobile (SIM) subscribers and penetration rate (regulator data) – 1999 – 2009 Table 86 – Historic - financial data – 2007 – 2017 Table 87 – Historic - VodafoneZiggo mobile subscribers – 2004 – 2019 Table 88 – Historic - T-Mobile Netherlands mobile service revenue – 2007 – 2016 Table 89 – Historic - T-Mobile Netherlands blended ARPU – 2006 – 2016 Table 90 – Historic - Mobile services market revenue (MNOs) – 2006 – 2015 Table 91 – Historic - KPN LTE subscribers – 2013 – 2015 Table 92 – Historic - Cumulative mobile numbers ported – 2003 – 2009 Table 93 – Historic - Vodafone Netherlands ARPU – 2004 – 2009 Table 94 – Historic - Vodafone Netherlands voice traffic – 2004 – 2016 Table 95 – Historic - Tele2 mobile subscribers – 2007 – 2018 Table 96 – Historic - Tele2 mobile revenue – 2012 – 2018

List of Charts

Chart 1 – Europe Telecoms Maturity Index – Market Leaders (top tier) Chart 2 – Europe Telecoms Maturity Index – Market Challengers (middle tier) Chart 3 – Europe Telecoms Maturity Index – Market Emergents (bottom tier) Chart 4 – Overall view - Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita Chart 5 – Europe - mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration Chart 6 – Scandinavia and Baltics: mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration Chart 7 – Northern Europe –mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration Chart 8 – Southern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration Chart 9 – Eastern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration Chart 10 – Scandinavia and Baltics fixed and mobile broadband penetration Chart 11 – Northern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration Chart 12 – Southern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration Chart 13 – Eastern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration Chart 14 – Change in telecom infrastructure investment by sector – 2012 – 2018 Chart 15 – Change in the number of wholesale unbundled connections – 2014 – 2018 Chart 16 – Decline in the number of WLR lines – 2008 – 2019 Chart 17 – Decline in fixed-line revenue (PSTN, VoB) – 2006 – 2018 Chart 18 – Decline in VoIP and PSTN traffic – 2016 – 2018 Chart 19 – Decline in fixed-line traffic revenue – 2006 – 2018 Chart 20 – Change in fixed-line service revenue by retail, wholesale – 2013 – 2017 Chart 21 – Decline in the number of KPN’s connected PSTN households (consumer) – 2005 – 2019 Chart 22 – Change in the number of KPN’s RGUs by platform (consumer) – 2015 – 2019 Chart 23 – Development of KPN Group’s financial data – 2009 – 2019 Chart 24 – KPN consumer and business financial data (Netherlands) – 2005 – 2019 Chart 25 – Development of VodafoneZiggo’s financial data – 2006 – 2019 Chart 26 – Change in VodafoneZiggo’s subscriber base by platform – 2007 – 2019 Chart 27 – Fixed lines in services by type – 2008 – 2018 Chart 28 – Decline in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity – 2009 – 2024 Chart 29 – Development of KPN’s wholesale connections by type – 2015 – 2019 Chart 30 – Proportion of retail broadband service connections with bundle types – 2015 – 2018 Chart 31 – Change in the number of fixed broadband retail subscribers by platform – 2010 – 2018 Chart 32 – Change in fixed-line broadband market share by technology – 2008 – 2018 Chart 33 – Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2009 – 2024 Chart 34 – Change in the proportion of broadband connections by speed – 2010 – 2018 Chart 35 – Development of broadband penetration by technology – 2007 – 2018 Chart 36 – Increase in the number of retail cable broadband subscribers – 2009 – 2018 Chart 37 – Development of cable broadband connections by speed – 2010 – 2018 Chart 38 – Development of VodafoneZiggo’s cable broadband financial data – 2006 – 2019 Chart 39 – Growth in VodafoneZiggo’s broadband subscriber base – 2007 – 2019 Chart 40 – Change in KPN’s consumer retail broadband subscriber base – 2007 – 2019 Chart 41 – Decline in the number of DSL subscribers – 2000 – 2018 Chart 42 – Development of DSL broadband connections by speed – 2010 – 2018 Chart 43 – Increase in the number of premises connected and passed with upgraded copper – 2014 – 2018 Chart 44 – Increase in the number of FttP premises connected and passed – 2006 – 2018 Chart 45 – Growth in the number of FttP subscribers – 2006 – 2018 Chart 46 – Change in the number of FttP retail and wholesale business connections – 2015 – 2018 Chart 47 – Unbundled fibre broadband connections from KPN, by platform – 2015 – 2018 Chart 48 – Development of fibre broadband connections by speed – 2013 – 2018 Chart 49 – Decline in mobile retail and wholesale revenue – 2013 – 2018 Chart 50 – Change in mobile services revenue by sector– 2008 – 2018 Chart 51 – Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2009 – 2024 Chart 52 – Change in mobile subscriber market share of subscribers by operator – 2006 – 2018 Chart 53 – Change in prepaid and contract subscribers by market share (MNOS) – 2008 – 2018 Chart 54 – Change in the number of prepaid and contract subscribers – 2007 – 2018 Chart 55 – Growth in the number of mobile antennae in service by technology – 2014 – 2019 Chart 56 – Investment in mobile infrastructure – 2012 – 2018 Chart 57 – Increase in the number of M2M connections – 2010 – 2018 Chart 58 – Growth in mobile voice traffic – 2007 – 2018 Chart 59 – Growth in mobile data traffic – 2008 – 2018 Chart 60 – Growth in mobile data traffic, quarterly change – 2016 – 2018 Chart 61 – Decline in SMS traffic – 2008 – 2018 Chart 62 – Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers and penetration – 2009 – 2024 Chart 63 – Change in the number of mobile broadband subscribers by type – 2009 – 2018 Chart 64 – Decline in wholesale termination revenue – 2007 – 2018 Chart 65 – Increase in wholesale terminated traffic – 2010 – 2018 Chart 66 – Change in the number of KPN Mobile’s consumer retail and wholesale subscribers – 2006 – 2019 Chart 67 – Development of KPN Mobile’s revenue by type – 2015 – 2019 Chart 68 – KPN Mobile revenue by quarter – 2015 – 2019 Chart 69 – Development of VodafoneZiggo’s mobile revenue – 2016 – 2019 Chart 70 – Change in the number of VodafoneZiggo mobile subscribers – 2009 – 2019 Chart 71 – Change in the number of T-Mobile Netherlands’ subscribers by type– 2009 – 2019 Chart 72 – Development of T-Mobile Netherlands’ financial data – 2006 – 2019 Chart 73 – Growth in the number of MVNO subscribers and market share – 2005 – 2019

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1 – Generalised Market Characteristics by Market Segment Exhibit 2 – Access and the local loop Exhibit 3 – 2.6GHz spectrum auction – April 2010 Exhibit 4 – Spectrum auction – October 2012 Exhibit 5 – Historic - Fixed-to-mobile interconnections tariffs – 2007 – 2009

Read the full report: https://www.budde.com.au/Research/Netherlands-Telecoms-Mobile-and-Broadband- Statistics-and-Analyses