Fernando Tatis. Juan Soto. the Blue Jays' Vlad Guerrero Has Some Catching up to Do

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Fernando Tatis. Juan Soto. The Blue Jays’ Vlad Guerrero has some catching up to do

By Laura Armstrong Staff Reporter Sun., Oct. 4, 2020  3 min. read

 Article was updated 21 hrs ago

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They highlighted the international signing class of 2015: three ballplayers from the Dominican Republic who became professionals together on the same July day to the tune of more than $6 million (U.S.). It was the kind of money that signalled the pedigree and potential of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto. And the kind of money that comes with high expectations.

Soto was the first to crack the big leagues, promoted by the Washington Nationals in May 2018. Today, the outfielder has a World Series ring. His .490 on-base percentage, .695 slugging percentage, 1.185 OPS and 212 OPS+ were the best marks in the majors during the pandemic-shortened season.

Tatis was traded by the Chicago White Sox to the San Diego Padres in June 2016 and made his debut in March 2019. On Thursday, after finishing the regular season ranked fourth in the majors with 2.9 wins above replacement (WAR), the shortstop launched a pair of home runs in a come-from-behind victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, on the way to the Padres’ first playoff series win since 1998. Guerrero Jr. was not far behind Tatis in making his major-league debut, joining the Blue Jays a little more than a month after his compatriot. It was a long way from when they used to hang around Olympic Stadium in Montreal, watching their namesake fathers play together for the Expos. His arrival as the top-ranked prospect in the game was arguably more highly anticipated than the others. He has yet to match their impact. That fact isn’t lost on the third baseman turned first baseman, according to Jays general manager Ross Atkins, who was asked about it during Friday’s season-end availability. “Vladdy is aware of that, too, and is embracing that challenge 100 per cent and (is) very excited about it,” said Atkins. “I don’t think you can ever put your finger on one thing.” The numbers, however, offer some clues. Guerrero, Tatis and Soto are all 21 now, with enough big-league at-bats for trends to develop. Cardinals vs. Padres Game 3 Recap - Padres' pitching dominates to push Padres to NLDS

As a prospect, Tatis was touted for his ability to make adjustments, which he has done the past two years. He was aggressive at the plate in his first big-league season, with a high chase rate while walking just 8.1 per cent of the time. He recognized the problem and changed his approach — cutting his strikeout rate by nearly six per cent from 2019 to 2020, while upping his walk rate by two percentage points. With his O-Swing mark (which measures the number of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) also down 2.2 per cent, Tatis has clearly refined his approach at the plate to complement already elite power. Improved plate discipline has also defined Soto’s young career, with consistent barrels and hard contact. One question he faced in the minors was whether he would develop increased power. That question was put to rest this year, and he’s using it to all fields.

Unlike Tatis, Guerrero’s adjustments haven’t led to significant gains. And unlike Soto, he hasn’t been able to rely on what worked in the minors. The walk totals in particular stand out. Guerrero drew 151 free passes with just 139 strikeouts in 1,075 minor-league at-bats. With the Jays: 66 walks and 129 strikeouts in 685 trips. Atkins said he’d like to see Guerrero get back to the plate discipline that used to support his raw power, rather than focusing on getting the ball in the air in search of more home runs. His walk, strikeout and chase rates did improve in 2020, but not enough. “The bat-to-ball — the combination of, in the minor leagues, having more walks than strikeouts — I think that’s the trend that will take him to more success,” Atkins said. “The at-bats being more consistently balanced that way, where if he get to the point where the strikeouts and walks are matched, how much launch angle he has is not going to matter as much.” Either way, Atkins believes Guerrero will catch up to Tatis and Soto. “He’s going to be, in our view, amongst those names for a long time,” Atkins said. “Not just as a prospect.”

Laura Armstrong is a Star sports reporter based in Toronto. Follow her on Twitter: @lauraarmy