FUTURES GUIDE 2018 O’Clock Power—The Power Plays in Games, As Bichette Uses the Whole Field to Dish out Punishment
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Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B OFP: 70 Likely: 60 ETA: Late 2018 or early 2019 1 Born: 03/16/99 Age: 19 Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6'1" Weight: 200 Origin: International Free Agent, 2015 YEAR TEAM LVL AGE PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG/OBP/SLG TAv VORP BABIP BRR FRAA WARP PF 2016 BLU RK 17 276 32 12 3 8 46 33 35 15 5 .271/.359/.449 .291 19.2 .283 1.5 3B(50) -10.7 0.8 108 2017 LNS A 18 318 53 21 1 7 45 40 34 6 2 .316/.409/.480 .311 26.8 .336 0.8 3B(61) -2.6 2.5 110 2017 DUN A+ 18 209 31 7 1 6 31 36 28 2 2 .333/.450/.494 .322 16.9 .365 -2.4 3B(41) -1.5 1.6 108 2018 TOR MLB 19 450 54 20 1 13 53 47 92 1 0 .249/.332/.403 .258 6.9 .289 -1.1 3B -5 -0.1 105 2019 TOR MLB 20 445 63 20 1 17 61 51 87 1 0 .270/.359/.464 .278 19.3 .305 -1.0 3B -6 1.5 105 Breakout: 0% Improve: 16% Collapse: 4% Attrition: 17% MLB: 33% Comparables: Jurickson Profar, Carlos Correa, Mike Trout The Good: Guerrero might have the best offensive profile in the minors at this point, as he tore through both Low-A and High-A at the tender age of 18. He demonstrates elite bat-to-ball ability, showcasing phenomenal hand-eye coordination and wrist strength. He is capable of driving a ball in any part of the zone, or even outside of it. He pairs the bat with plus-plus raw power, and although the tool plays down in games due a contact-oriented swing, he is still more than capable of hitting his fair share of home runs. However, before drawing comparisons to his father, take note that Vladito also displays a batting eye well beyond his years. His plate discipline was among the best in the minors last year, as he walked more than he struck out at both levels. Guerrero also possesses an above-average arm that fits comfortably at third base. The Bad: Guerrero is charitably listed at 210 pounds, but in reality he carries a fair bit more weight. The body is already high maintenance at 18, and it’s not hard to envision health and fitness becoming a problem as he ages. Although he played all of 2017 at the hot corner, his defense at the position is inconsistent and raw. He’ll flash decent athleticism and reflexes, but he has stiff hands and limited range. He might be able to make it work at the position given time, but it seems likely that the bat and body force him across the diamond before long. He is only a fringe-average runner at present and will likely lose a step (or more) as he enters his twenties. The Risks: Despite having not reached the upper minors, Guerrero seems very likely to hit in the majors, making him safer than most prospects. His risks mainly come from a limited ceiling due to defense and long-term question marks about how his body will develop. —Emmett Rosenbaum Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Having the best offensive profile in the minors makes you a pretty good dynasty prospect, it turns out. We usually try to write more for the better prospects, but with Vladito there’s no need to overthink it. Expect a decade-plus of top-ten first baseman finishes, and consider any years of third base eligibility as added bonuses. Bo Bichette SS OFP: 70 Likely: 55 ETA: 2019 2 Born: 03/05/98 Age: 20 Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6'0" Weight: 200 Origin: Round 2, 2016 Draft (#66 overall) YEAR TEAM LVL AGE PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG/OBP/SLG TAv VORP BABIP BRR FRAA WARP PF 2016 BLJ RK 18 91 21 9 2 4 36 6 17 3 0 .427/.451/.732 .423 19.5 .484 -0.4 SS(16) 1.7, 2B(6) 0.3 2.2 98 2017 LNS A 19 317 60 32 3 10 51 28 55 12 3 .384/.448/.623 .363 48.4 .452 3.0 SS(51) 0.2, 2B(14) 0.3 5.1 110 2017 DUN A+ 19 182 28 9 1 4 23 14 26 10 4 .323/.379/.463 .292 12.4 .360 -0.2 SS(35) -0.3 1.3 107 2018 TOR MLB 20 450 57 24 1 15 56 27 107 8 3 .264/.313/.434 .260 10.4 .322 -0.1 SS 2 1.0 105 2019 TOR MLB 21 376 49 22 0 14 51 25 90 7 2 .276/.330/.465 .267 15.1 .333 0.1 SS 2 1.9 105 Breakout: 14% Improve: 31% Collapse: 0% Attrition: 13% MLB: 33% Comparables: Xander Bogaerts, Addison Russell, Alen Hanson The Good: Bichette, like his teammate Guerrero, torched two leagues last season to put him in discussion for one of the top prospects in baseball. The hit tool improved by leaps and bounds from what I projected for it out of high school, with it now potentially being his loudest tool, which is scary considering his other tools. The raw power is 70, and it isn’t just 5 335 FUTURES GUIDE 2018 o’clock power—the power plays in games, as Bichette uses the whole field to dish out punishment. The arm is plus (or better in some cases), allowing it to play all over the infield. A better runner than you would think, Bichette gets out of the box quickly, forcing infielders to make quick decisions. The Bad: The arm plays all over the infield, even if you aren’t sure where he plays long-term. While he wouldn’t be bad at the six, it wouldn’t be flashy and would be frustrating to watch over time. His footwork is inconsistent, his throws tend to sail high, and he doesn’t always make the best decisions. It is more likely he plays at either third base or second base, depending on organizational need. The hit tool still has question marks, especially as pitchers sequence him better and exploit his holes. While not a free-swinger, he isn’t exactly known for his plate discipline. The Risks: Not a lot. We still need to see him against Double-A arms. There’s still some uncertainty about where he plays on the dirt. Prima donna attitude, plate discipline questions. —Steve Givarz Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Yes, please. Bichette isn’t yet the top-ten overall dynasty prospect that some people are treating him as, but he’s not far off. The hope is he at least sticks at the six for a few years early in his career, but even if that’s not the case he’d have top-7 upside at second or third base. There is still some risk here, but the potential for a solid-to-good average, 25 homers, and a handful of steals make Bichette well worth the gamble. Anthony Alford CF OFP: 60 Likely: 50 ETA: Debuted in 2017 3 Born: 07/20/94 Age: 23 Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6'1" Weight: 215 Origin: Round 3, 2012 Draft (#112 overall) YEAR TEAM LVL AGE PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG/OBP/SLG TAv VORP BABIP BRR FRAA WARP PF 2015 LNS A 20 232 49 14 1 1 16 39 60 12 1 .293/.418/.394 .287 19.7 .419 6.5 CF(47) -3.7 1.7 111 2015 DUN A+ 20 255 42 11 6 3 19 28 49 15 6 .302/.380/.444 .299 21.3 .374 4.1 CF(55) 0.4 2.4 112 2016 DUN A+ 21 401 53 17 2 9 44 53 117 18 6 .236/.344/.378 .261 15.0 .327 2.3 CF(84) 2.6, LF(6) 1.7 2.0 109 2017 TOR MLB 22 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .125/.125/.250 .139 -0.8 .200 0.0 LF(3) -0.2, RF(2) 0.0 -0.1 105 2017 DUN A+ 22 22 1 0 0 0 2 0 8 1 0 .143/.182/.143 .126 -2.2 .231 0.4 CF(3) -0.2 -0.2 103 2017 NHP AA 22 289 41 14 0 5 24 35 45 18 3 .310/.406/.429 .303 21.9 .360 2.5 CF(32) 5.1, LF(13) 1.1 2.9 101 2017 BUF AAA 22 13 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 .333/.385/.417 .269 0.9 .400 0.5 LF(2) 0.2, RF(1) 1.0 0.2 101 2018 TOR MLB 23 60 7 3 0 1 6 6 17 2 0 .226/.317/.340 .242 0.7 .313 0.2 RF 0, LF 0 0.1 105 2019 TOR MLB 24 349 42 15 1 8 37 39 100 11 3 .232/.326/.375 .244 3.7 .314 1.2 RF 0, LF 2 0.6 105 Breakout: 1% Improve: 19% Collapse: 5% Attrition: 13% MLB: 40% Comparables: Brian Goodwin, Dexter Fowler, Trayvon Robinson The Good: Up-the-middle tools in abundance: Alford has them. He’s a plus runner with a potential plus glove in center. He’s built like a spread option quarterback, which he was.