17-Sep-2013
Morning Matters
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F E A F
TE A xF TE tA SET Intra-Day Graph WHAT’S INSIDE xF MT tA ax RT ct On The Platter ix rG st or Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB; FVTHB24-Buy): 3Q13 New Rental kV |o Contracts Rebound Sharply sa w |l t At our recent Corporate Day in Hong Kong, Ticon confirmed a sharp u h rebound in new rental space contracts in 3Q13 while earnings should peak e | in 4Q13 from an asset divestment. After the 2011 floods, Ticon focused on | Source: Bloomberg the rental of warehouses, which now comprises 72% of its entire rental Key Market Indices (16 September 2013)
portfolio. This makes it a proxy to Thailand’s potential of becoming an Value Chg % Chg % YTD Asean logistics hub. The stock is trading at a discount to NAV and offers a SET 1445.11 44.03 3.1% 3.8% handsome yield. SET50 989.37 32.12 3.4% 4.7% SET100 2176.59 71.01 3.4% 4.7% MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS
Dow Jones 15494.78 118.72 0.8% 18.2% S&P500 1697.60 9.61 0.6% 19.0% Four networks submit rental rates for digital TV Nasdaq 3717.85 -4.34 -0.1% 23.1% Amata B. Grimm fund oversubscribed FTSE 6622.86 39.06 0.6% 12.3% SCG pushes sustainability with partners FSSTI 3179.48 59.18 1.9% 0.4% Hang Seng 23252.41 337.13 1.5% 2.6% Oishi expands bottling capacity in Pathum Thani Nikkei 14404.64 -0.03 0.0% 38.8% Unique Engineering secures Bt18 bn loan for rail line KLCI 1770.80 UNCHG UNCHG 4.8% SHANGHAI SE 2231.40 -4.82 -0.2% -1.7% Two PTT bond issues net more than Bt25 billion JCI 4522.24 146.70 3.4% 4.8% ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F PE (x) 14.1 15.9 14.4 Summers’s Withdrawal Said to Make Yellen Fed Front-Runner P/BV (x) 1.8 2.3 2.2 Malaysians Brace for Shift to Austerity as Najib Cools Spending Yield (%) 4.1 3.0 3.2 Singapore’s Home Sales Rebound to Be Short-Lived Key Statistics Fed Leader Doubt Erodes Low-Rate Message as QE Taper Looms SET Value by investor Type: Daily Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) Manufacturing Rebound Led by Autos Supports Growth Institution 8,140.84 3,995.47 4,145.36 Proprietary 8,835.18 7,255.43 1,579.74 Foreign 12,555.55 9,527.73 3,027.82 Retail 25,674.48 34,427.40 -8,752.92 SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 11,956.39 83,223.92 Proprietary 4,024.96 -6,785.28 Foreign 13,993.96 -102,031.36 Retail -29,975.31 25,592.71 SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 6,334 7,522 -1,188 -2,561 17,880 Foreign 7,564 7,206 358 6,452 -15,319 Local 10,002 9,172 830 -3,891 -2,561
Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) 95.5 437.2 -3,329.3 -254.7
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Media Highlights Four networks submit rental rates for digital TV Four licensed network providers for digital TV have already finalised their network rental costs, with MCOT Plc offering the highest rate and Thai PBS the lowest. The broadcasting regulator ordered the four network providers _ the Royal Thai Army, the Public Relations Department, Thai PBS and MCOT _ to submit network rental costs this past Sunday. Thai PBS offered 31.6 million baht a year for a standard-definition (SD) channel and 94.8 million a year for a high-definition (HD) channel in the first year. Then the annual rent from the second to the 15th years will start from 48 million baht for an SD channel and 144 million for an HD channel. The rates will be revised every three years, based on inflation. The public TV station has set a total investment budget of 860 million baht for digital-TV network expansion. MCOT set its network rent at 60 million baht a year for an SD channel and 180 million for an HD channel. The prices will be maintained for the first five years, then increase by 3% annually with adjustments for inflation. (Bangkok Post)
Amata B. Grimm fund oversubscribed The five-day subscription for Amata B. Grimm Power Plant Infrastructure Fund (ABPIF), which ended last Friday, was 1.5 times oversubscribed. At 10.50 baht each, the fund has raised 6.3 billion baht in its initial public offering. Kasikornbank is the financial adviser and Kasikorn Asset Management is the fund manager. The infrastructure fund has drawn overwhelming interest from investors seeking steady returns when the stock markets are volatile. The fund's underlying assets are Amata B.Grimm Power's two natural gas power plants (Amata B.Grimm Power 1 and 2), which have a combined capacity of 350 megawatts. (Bangkok Post)
SCG pushes sustainability with partners Siam Cement Group (SCG) has encouraged its suppliers to apply sustainable development in doing business, saying it will help them compete during the onset of the Asean Economic Community (AEC). Roongrote Rangsiyopash, chairman of the sustainable development committee at Thailand's top industrial conglomerate, said products in the AEC will be competing on a non-tariff basis. But if sustainable development is adopted as part of the regional standard, Thai products will stand to lose, said Mr Roongrote, also the president of SCG Paper. The group yesterday hosted the Supply Chain Sustainability Forum: Walking Together to reflect the efforts of SCG and its business partners to bring about benefits for society and the environment. SCG's code of conduct covers labour and human rights, occupational health and safety, the environment and laws and regulations, said SCG president and chief executive Kan Trakulhoon. (Bangkok Post)
Oishi expands bottling capacity in Pathum Thani Oishi Group has signed a contract with Shibuya Kogyo Co, a leading Japanese bottling system manufacturer, for the purchase and installation of an aseptic cold filling system for PET bottles. The investment of 1.3 billion baht will expand production capacity at the Oishi plant in Pathum Thani's Nava Nakorn Industrial Estate by 25% to 75 million bottles a month from 60 million now. The expansion will serve both domestic and export markets to capture opportunities presented by the Asean Economic Community, said Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi, the chief executive and president of Thai Beverage Plc and chairman of Oishi Trading Co. The Board of Investment-approved system is being installed and will start its commercial run in December 2014. The expansion will enable Oishi to maintain market dominance in Thailand while allowing it to increase its footprint in Asean markets. The system allows the use of thinner containers, bringing savings on material costs and lowering the environmental impact. (Bangkok Post)
Unique Engineering secures Bt18 bn loan for rail line Unique Engineering and Construction has secured an Bt18-billion project loan from Krungthai Bank and KTB Leasing to finance the construction of the Bang Sue-Rangsit section of the SRT Red Line. Unique chairman Natee Panichewa said yesterday that KTB would provide a four-year term loan of Bt15 billion while KTB Leasing would provide Bt3 billion for machinery leasing with a five-year term. Unique has won a Bt29.83-billion civil works contract from the State Railway of Thailand for the Bang Sue Grand Station and depots. The company has a backlog of Bt40 billion, of which Bt8 billion will be realised as revenue this year and about Bt15 billion next year. The company plans to increase its order book to Bt80 billion this year. It will join the bidding for state projects worth Bt250 billion including the double-tracking project, the six lines planned by the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand, the Bang Pa-in-Nakhon Ratchasima Motorway, and the second phase of Suvarnabhumi Airport. (The Nation)
Two PTT bond issues net more than Bt25 billion While PTT sold Bt10 billion worth of 10-year, zero-coupon bonds in Thailand, its subsidiary, PTT Exploration and Production, completed the offering of five-year, senior unsecured bonds worth US$500 million or about Bt15.5 billion to foreign investors. PTT president Pailin Chuchottaworn said yesterday that the zero-coupon bond issue was 1.5 times oversubscribed, which demonstrates investor confidence in PTT's strengths amid high volatility in the financial market. "PTT has offered loyalty bond programmes, to sell bonds to the general public on an annual basis, but there had been no bonds issued to institutional investors for two years. "This is a good chance to reconnect to institutional investors. Plus, there are few zero-coupon bond issues in Thailand and PTT is delighted to help grow the bond market in terms of products and distribution channels," he said in a statement. The 10-year bond was offered to institutional and high-net-worth individual investors in Thailand on September 13. Interest, at 5.12 per cent per year, will be paid at maturity. (The Nation)
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Economic Highlights
Summers’s Withdrawal Said to Make Yellen Fed Front-Runner Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen is the leading candidate to replace Ben S. Bernanke following the withdrawal of Lawrence Summers from consideration, a person familiar with the process said. Obama hasn’t made a decision on a nominee for the top Fed post and several people familiar with White House discussions said another candidate may yet emerge. An administration official said the process of reviewing candidates isn’t starting over now that Summers has dropped out of the running.The official and the people asked for anonymity to discuss private deliberations on the nomination. Summers, Yellen and former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn were three people who Obama previously said he was considering for the post. Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, another potential candidate, isn’t interested in the job, according to several people. Summers’s decision, which he made public yesterday, doesn’t change Obama’s timetable for selecting a nominee, White House press secretary Jay Carney said, while refusing to discuss who the president is considering. (Bloomberg)
Malaysians Brace for Shift to Austerity as Najib Cools Spending Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak returned to power this year with the help of a spending spree that boosted consumption. Now voters could feel the pinch as he tries to appease a different group: rating companies. Najib’s government raised subsidized fuel prices for the first time since 2010 this month and has said it will delay some infrastructure projects, seeking to contain the budget gap and shore up the current account after Fitch Ratings cut Malaysia’s credit outlook to negative in July. It is also considering a goods and services tax in the 2014 fiscal plan due Oct. 25. The shift toward austerity could cool the domestic demand and investment that kept Malaysia’s gross domestic product rising an average 6 percent in the three years through 2012. The country joins Asian emerging markets such as Indonesia in confronting slower growth as they deal with the side effects of spurring local consumption, undermining the region’s role as the main driver of global expansion. (Bloomberg)
Singapore’s Home Sales Rebound to Be Short-Lived Singapore’s jump in private home sales last month was only a temporary reprieve for developers as the government’s cooling measures take root and mortgage rates begin to rise. The city’s housing sales climbed 54 percent to 742 in August from July, when they fell to 482, the lowest in almost four years, according to government data. With nine rounds of cooling measures since mid-2009, the increase will be short-lived, according to Mizuho Bank Ltd. and UOB Kay Hian Pte. Monthly sales averaged about 1,700 units in the first six months of the year. “There have been successive rounds of measures coming through and with mortgage rates also beginning to move up, you will find that buyers are becoming more circumspect and wondering if these are the right entry levels,” said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Mizuho, who forecast home prices to fall 10 percent to 15 percent by 2016. (Bloomberg)
Fed Leader Doubt Erodes Low-Rate Message as QE Taper Looms Federal Reserve officials will gather in their Washington board room this week to decide on policies that will unfold over the next two to three years without knowing who will lead the institution during that time. Yesterday’s announcement that Lawrence Summers has withdrawn his name from Obama’s list of candidates to succeed Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke threatens to weaken the central bank’s policy message by leaving the succession unsettled just as it considers scaling back record accommodation. Policy makers will decide at their Sept. 17-18 meeting whether the economy is strong enough to begin tapering $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. As they do so, they will use so-called forward guidance to convince investors they can keep interest rates low for as long as it takes to bring down unemployment so long as prices remain in check. (Bloomberg)
Manufacturing Rebound Led by Autos Supports Growth Factories turned out more cars, appliances and home furnishings in August, propelling the biggest increase in U.S. industrial production in six months and indicating manufacturing (IPMGCHNG) will contribute more to the expansion. Output at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.4 percent after no change the prior month, a report from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington. Manufacturing, which makes up 75 percent of total production, advanced by the most this year. The figures showed strength in housing and autos is rippling through the economy, with a measure of appliance and furniture output climbing to the highest since 2009 and vehicle assemblies growing at the fastest pace in six years. A pickup in global markets and stronger consumer demand would help spark further progress in the sector that struggled earlier this year. (Bloomberg)
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Outperform
Current Target Upside/ Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F
ADVANC Buy 270.00 319.00 18.1 21.3 4.7
AOT Buy 189.50 222.00 17.2 25.1 1.6 Trading BTS Buy 8.65 10.20 17.9 39.9 6.2 Trading INTUCH Buy 84.25 104.00 23.4 17.9 5.1 . PTT Buy 340.00 388.00 14.1 8.6 4.1
PTTGC Buy 74.00 82.10 10.9 9.9 4.6
Underperform
Current Target Upside/ Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F
AP Neutral 5.90 6.30 14.0 6.8 3.2
KTB Buy 21.20 28.30 33.5 9.8 3.6
TCAP Neutral 34.75 41.00 18.0 4.6 3.8
TISCO Sell 40.75 41.00 0.6 7.6 6.3
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
NVDR Daily Trading by Stock Top 20 Net Buy Top 20 Net Sell Rank SymbolNVDR Net Buy Value (Bt mn) Rank Symbol NVDR Net Sell Value (Bt mn) 16-Sep 12-Sep 11-Sep 10-Sep 9-Sep 16-Sep 12-Sep 11-Sep 10-Sep 9-Sep 1 KBANK 396.7 129.0 94.4 685.6 1,388.9 1 ADVANC (113.0) 248.2 (243.9) 90.7 432.2 2 INTUCH 345.8 66.6 (103.6) (6.0) 400.8 2 TMB (93.0) 35.3 37.3 20.4 (164.5) 3 PTT 321.5 81.0 111.0 470.8 234.8 3 CPALL (76.2) 38.2 64.1 48.4 149.3 4 PTTEP 242.7 78.7 159.5 387.4 339.0 4 MAJOR (24.0) 0.7 14.7 (39.3) (3.8) 5 SCB 219.2 108.5 100.5 578.4 360.7 5 DTAC (17.8) (86.1) 15.3 92.8 80.9 6 AOT 202.6 51.3 95.5 174.6 360.8 6 GLOW (17.6) 65.2 32.0 41.7 63.7 7 KTB 144.0 64.7 12.0 78.2 104.6 7 JAS (17.6) 15.3 8.5 28.8 (78.8) 8 CPF 114.3 21.5 42.0 88.7 68.5 8 UNIQ (16.0) 40.6 (1.3) (1.0) 14.5 9 STEC 109.3 210.4 85.8 44.2 137.8 9 BECL (10.9) 5.3 2.0 3.2 7.5 10 TOP 99.8 17.3 29.8 46.6 98.6 10 PREB (8.8) - 0.1 (0.1) 2.2 11 PTTGC 95.5 50.6 83.5 205.7 80.9 11 DELTA (8.5) 32.9 11.8 26.8 15.4 12 AP 87.7 0.3 (10.2) 0.0 26.0 12 STAR (8.3) 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.9 13 LH 73.9 22.6 42.1 9.1 (18.6) 13 TTCL (8.1) 4.0 9.4 25.5 32.7 14 BAY 68.9 53.2 (82.6) 282.4 177.5 14 THAI (5.5) (2.9) (2.9) 98.0 115.0 15 SIRI 57.8 39.5 (10.4) 67.9 18.4 15 BLAND (4.0) 4.2 0.5 1.8 0.6 16 BEC 56.3 47.6 27.6 24.5 97.4 16 KGI (3.6) 0.0 1.6 0.4 (0.1) 17 EGCO 54.1 8.0 (6.1) 24.1 26.5 17 TICON (3.3) (3.9) (19.7) (5.8) 48.8 18 PS 53.8 8.5 (2.5) 21.2 24.6 18 BBL (3.0) 153.6 554.0 204.0 (43.2) 19 TCAP 41.1 (76.4) (72.4) 129.1 74.0 19 CSC (2.4) (0.7) (0.3) (0.7) (0.9) 20 BANPU 34.8 186.2 20.5 60.2 60.9 20 BMCL (2.0) 0.8 0.6 (0.7) (0.3)
------NVDR Most Active Values (Bt m)------NVDR Outstanding Share (m shares)------% No.of Shars Paid Up Capital % of Paid Up Symbol BUY SELL Total NET Turnover Symbol In Hand Shares Capital 1 KBANK 969.1 572.3 1,541.4 396.7 25.1 1 TISCO-P 0.02 0.03 66.2 2 BBL 606.7 609.8 1,216.5 (3.0) 43.9 2 BBL 575.6 1,908.8 30.2 3 ADVANC 308.7 421.7 730.4 (113.0) 18.5 3 KBANK 652.0 2,393.3 27.2 4 INTUCH 513.0 167.2 680.1 345.8 17.8 4 INTUCH 746.8 3,206.4 23.3 5 SCB 349.6 130.4 480.1 219.2 8.6 5 SPALI 375.9 1,716.6 21.9 6 KTB 293.8 149.9 443.7 144.0 10.3 6 E-W1 75.0 347.0 21.6 7 PTT 376.6 55.1 431.6 321.5 16.8 7 GOLD-W1 74.2 392.1 18.9 8 SCC 202.2 200.4 402.6 1.8 28.0 8 THRE 634.8 3,512.5 18.1 9 PTTEP 277.5 34.7 312.2 242.7 22.3 9 LH 1,811.5 10,025.9 18.1 10 TMB 99.5 192.5 292.0 (93.0) 7.4 10 LPN 253.1 1,475.7 17.2 11 CPALL 96.7 172.8 269.5 (76.2) 10.0 11 TWFP 16.0 95.1 16.8 12 AOT 224.8 22.2 246.9 202.6 18.2 12 DTAC 372.0 2,367.8 15.7 13 JAS 102.9 120.5 223.4 (17.6) 5.9 13 TCAP 196.0 1,277.8 15.3 14 TRUE 114.3 100.5 214.8 13.8 2.4 14 THIP 1.2 8.0 14.5 15 BAY 138.5 69.6 208.1 68.9 10.0 15 LALIN 114.5 825.0 13.9 16 PTTGC 146.4 50.9 197.3 95.5 17.9 16 AP 393.5 2,859.9 13.8 17 BTS 98.6 88.7 187.3 9.8 5.3 17 BAY 826.0 6,074.1 13.6 18 STEC 135.6 26.4 162.0 109.3 9.5 18 GBX 139.2 1,089.1 12.8 19 CPF 135.4 21.2 156.6 114.3 10.5 19 PRANDA 52.2 409.1 12.8 20 DTAC 64.9 82.7 147.6 (17.8) 21.2 20 LRH 21.0 166.7 12.6 Source: SET,RHB OSK
Company Update, 17 September 2013
Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB) Buy (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: THB24.0 Market Cap: USD527m Price: THB18.4
Macro Risks 2 3Q13 New Rental Contracts Rebound Sharply Growth . 2 0 Value .
02
0
. 02 0 At our recent Corporate Day in Hong Kong, Ticon confirmed a sharp . Ticon Ind Connection (TICON TB) 0 Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) rebound in new rental space contracts in 3Q13 while earnings should 0 28 210 peak in 4Q13 from an asset divestment. After the 2011 floods, Ticon 0 26 197 focused on the rental of warehouses, which now comprises 72% of its
24 183 entire rental portfolio. This makes it a proxy to Thailand’s potential of becoming an Asean logistics hub. The stock is trading at a discount to 22 170 NAV and offers a handsome yield. 20 157 18 143 New warehouse rental contracts rebound sharply in 3Q13. The group finalized two major warehouse rental contracts in 3Q13 – one for 16 130 60-70k sq m and another for 50k sq m. These boosted its new 14 117 warehouse rental space to 160k sq m from only 34k sq m in 1H13. As 12 103 such, we believe that Ticon’s full-year target of bookings for rental of
10 90 200k sq m of new warehouse space is achievable. On the other hand, 25 new factory rental contracts remained weak at 55-60k sq m of factory 20 space to date (1H13: 14k sq m). 15 10 Setting up property fund in 4Q13 instead of REIT. As Ticon had 5 encountered hiccups that led to delays in the setting up of a REIT, the
Vol Vol m company decided to switch to a new property fund in November or
December this year. The fund size will remain at THB6bn, involving the
Jul-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Sep-12 Nov-12 May-13 acquisition of 286k sq m (factory: 104k sq m, warehouse: 182k sq m) of space. Source: Bloomberg Asset divestment to ease high gearing. A massive THB12bn Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 74.4m/2.37m investment this year led to Ticon’s debt to equity ratio bloating to 2.5x as Cons. Upside (%) 37.5 at end-September 2013 from 2.1x as at end-June 2013. However, after it Upside (%) 30.4 sells assets to its new property fund in 4Q13, its debt to equity ratio will 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 12.2 - 26.3 drop to 1.8x. Another source of funds is the conversion of 214m warrants Free float (%) 57 (conversion price: THB18.841), which will generate THB4bn in proceeds upon full conversion. Meanwhile, rising bond yield is a concern since this Shareholders (%) theoretically has an impact on the price of assets the group would be selling to its new property fund. However, between 2005 and 2012, the Rojana Industrial Park 20.6 prices of assets sold to either the TFUND or TLOGIS property funds Thai NVDR 7.9 each of the years held up remarkably well.
Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover (THBm) 2,784 1,997 5,557 7,385 8,217 Reported net profit (THBm) 821 436 1,296 1,598 1,821 Recurring net profit (THBm) 821 436 1,296 1,598 1,821 Recurring net profit growth (%) 25.8 (46.9) 196.9 23.3 14.0 Consensus EPS (THB) 1.80 1.83 EPS (THB) 1.22 0.60 1.56 1.59 1.60 Wanida Geisler 66 2862 9748 DPS (THB) 1.00 0.40 1.00 1.05 1.20 License No.17602 Dividend Yield (%) 5.4 2.2 5.5 5.7 6.5 [email protected] Return on average assets (%) 7.0 3.1 7.4 7.2 7.0 Return on average equity (%) 15.5 7.7 19.1 15.2 13.5 P/E (x) 15.1 30.9 11.8 11.6 11.5 P/B (x) 2.26 2.50 2.05 1.59 1.52 Net debt to equity (%) 91.9 133.6 120.4 72.6 85.8
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM Platform 1
Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB) 16 September 2013
Fast growing warehouse rental business. Ticon, which started its warehouse business in 2007, has warehouses in 16 locations today, mostly in the eastern seaboard area. Its occupancy rate is likely to rebound sharply in 3Q13 after it signed new rental space totaling 130k sq m. It has landbank totaling 2,637 rai - or 1.45m sq m (81.5% of total landbank) - waiting to be developed. Apart from its vast landbank in the eastern part of Bangkok (Bangna, Bangplee and Bangpakong) and the eastern seaboard area (Chonburi and Rayong province), Ticon has also bought land in Khon Khaen and Prachinburi provinces in the north-eastern part of Thailand and Surat thani province in the south. These will be allocated for new distribution centers to neighbouring countries.
Figure 1: Breakdown of warehouse space for rent end-2010 end-2011 end-2012 end-June 13
(sq m) (sq m) (sq m) (sq m) Leased 103,370 205,352 257,108 276,868 Pre-leased 52,330 33,481 38,670 52,750 Available 64,904 8,450 86,713 165,513 Under 27,550 157,186 159,082 179,425 Construction Site 127,718 769,976 838,904 1,271,872 Preparation Total 375,872 1,174,445 1,380,477 1,946,428
Occupancy % 71 97 77 67
Source: TICON, RHB estimates Factory rental business needs time to recover. The majority of Ticon’s factories for rent are in the flood-prone zone in the northern part of Bangkok. It has been one year and eight months since the severe floods at end-2011, but demand has yet to return. The group has stopped expanding in flood zones and bought new plots in non-flood zone areas such as the Asian Industrial estate near Suvarnabhumi airport as well as Rojana industrial park in Prachinburi. Currently, it has 598 rai - or 233k sq m of landbank (18.5% of total landbank) awaiting development.
Figure 2: Breakdown of factory space for rent end-2010 end-2011 end-2012 end-June 13
(sq m) (sq m) (sq m) (sq m) Leased 296,825 387,515 261,840 305,040 Pre-leased 23,850 15,900 51,025 21,750 Available 71,015 31,800 101,225 121,700 Under 25,000 38,245 24,625 40,700 Construction Site 164,950 144,239 173,775 192,325 Preparation Total 581,640 617,699 612,490 681,515
Occupancy% 82 93 76 73
Source: TICON, RHB estimates
Asset prices hold up well. The rise in bond yields is a concern since this theoretically affects the prices of assets Ticon will sell to its new property fund. That said, it is worth noting that between 2005-2012, the prices of assets Ticon sold to either the TFUND or TLOGIS property funds in each of the years had held up quite well. This does not seem to show any correlation between policy rate and the price of assets sold to property funds. We compare the movements of the policy rate against prices of assets sold to property funds each year. Although the average policy rate rose from 2.84% in 2005 to 4.81% in 2006, Ticon was still able to sell its assets (RBF) at higher prices as well as higher gross margins in 2006 compared with 2005. During the US subprime crisis in 2008, the policy rate shrank to 3% while asset prices and gross margin also fell. In 2009, when policy rate touched 1.4%, Ticon sold warehouse space that generated a 31% gross margin. In 2010, the group shifted to sell RBF again at much higher price than in 2008. In 2012, despite the late 2011 floods, its asset prices also held up well, while gross margin also improved. We note that factories and warehouses sold into property funds at a yield of 18% and 12-14%, respectively.
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB) 16 September 2013
Figure 3: Comparison of average policy rate, assets price and gross margin-asset sale
US Subprime Crisis Floods
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average policy rate (%) 2.84 4.81 3.72 3.00 1.4 1.45 3.00 2.94
Assets price (THB/sq m)
RBF 19,244 19,740 20,224 18,673 19,864 22,735
Warehouse 21,631 17,083 16,998
Gross margin-asset sale %
RBF 47.5 49.2 46.4 41.1 44.8 48.8
Warehouse 31.2 32.5 36.1
Source: Bank of Thailand, Ticon, RHB estimates
Demand from auto parts outpaces other industries. Tenants from the auto parts industry now represent 33% (2005: 17%) and 23% (2008: less than 10%) of Ticon’s rental factory and warehouse portfolio, respectively. With Thailand’s attempts to increase auto production from being the world’s number 12 to number 9 in 2015, demand from auto parts will continue to be strong. Meanwhile, as demand from electronics and electrical goods has softened, the proportion of tenants from this segment has gone down from more than 50% of total rental factory portfolio to 34% currently. That said, tenants from general logistics have remained quite stable at around 40% of the group’s rental warehouse portfolio since 2008. Room for 2014 earnings upgrade. We estimate a 2013 net profit of THB1.6bn (+23% y-o-y) based on sale of assets worth THB6bn to a new property fund at a gross margin of 37.5%. For next year, we are conservatively assuming a 10% increase in sale of assets to THB6.6bn, boosting its net profit growth to 14%. However, with new rental contracts this year, especially for warehouse space, likely to come in above the company’s target of 200k sq m, Ticon may sell assets worth more than our expectations, which may then lead to an earnings upgrade. NAV of THB24. Last year, the fair value of Ticon’s investment assets stood at THB27bn, 64% higher than its book value. This implies that its 2012 RNAV was THB21/share. This year, we assume that the gap between the stock’s book value and fair value of its investment assets (including land, rental assets and investment portfolio), will remain at 64%. From this, we arrive at our 2013F NAV of THB 24.
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB) 16 September 2013
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover 2,784 1,997 5,557 7,385 8,217 Cost of sales (1,282) (988) (3,204) (4,208) (4,653) Gross profit 1,502 1,009 2,353 3,177 3,564 Other operating costs (300) (341) (418) (498) (579) Operating profit 1,202 668 1,935 2,680 2,985 Operating EBITDA 1,472 989 2,324 3,183 3,515 Depreciation of fixed assets (270) (321) (389) (504) (530) Operating EBIT 1,202 668 1,935 2,680 2,985 Net income from investments 207 161 169 188 244 Provisions (219) (59) (424) (558) (614) Other recurring income 150 132 287 253 263 Interest expense (261) (267) (411) (473) (509) Pre-tax profit 1,079 635 1,556 2,090 2,369 Taxation (258) (199) (260) (492) (548) Profit after tax & minorities 821 436 1,296 1,598 1,821 Reported net profit 821 436 1,296 1,598 1,821 Recurring net profit 821 436 1,296 1,598 1,821
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Operating profit 1,202 668 1,935 2,680 2,985 Depreciation & amortisation 270 321 389 504 530 Change in working capital 16 (145) 402 34 150 Other operating cash flow 130 122 340 219 263 Operating cash flow 1,618 966 3,066 3,436 3,928 Interest paid (261) (267) (411) (473) (509) Tax paid (258) (199) (260) (492) (548) Cash flow from operations 1,099 500 2,395 2,471 2,871 Capex (469) (2,706) (3,512) (5,259) (2,925) Other investing cash flow (230) (184) (1,502) (992) (1,071) Cash flow from investing activities (699) (2,890) (5,014) (6,252) (3,996) Dividends paid (537) (924) (156) (881) (1,199) Proceeds from issue of shares 339 642 964 4,593 - Increase in debt 706 2,583 1,844 (200) 1,800 Other financing cash flow 9 146 (27) 8 50 Cash flow from financing activities 517 2,447 2,625 3,520 651 Cash at beginning of period 113 1,030 1,087 1,093 832 Total cash generated 917 57 6 (261) (473) Implied cash at end of period 1,030 1,087 1,093 832 359
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB) 16 September 2013
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total cash and equivalents 1,030 1,087 1,093 832 359 Accounts receivable 14 107 119 120 120 Other current assets 79 62 126 140 140 Total current assets 1,123 1,256 1,338 1,092 619 Total investments 1,821 1,898 2,755 3,867 5,024 Tangible fixed assets 9,228 11,586 14,560 18,714 20,454 Total other assets 313 549 1,088 1,200 1,400 Total non-current assets 11,362 14,033 18,403 23,781 26,877 Total assets 12,485 15,289 19,741 24,874 27,497 Short-term debt 1,159 2,695 3,095 2,900 3,200 Accounts payable 113 329 666 700 800 Other current liabilities 329 44 185 200 250 Total current liabilities 1,601 3,068 3,946 3,800 4,250 Total long-term debt 5,014 6,061 7,505 7,500 9,000 Other liabilities 273 419 392 400 450 Total non-current liabilities 5,287 6,480 7,897 7,900 9,450 Total liabilities 6,888 9,548 11,843 11,700 13,700 Share capital 686 781 877 1,136 1,136 Retained earnings reserve 1,948 1,450 2,609 3,326 3,949 Other reserves 2,963 3,510 4,378 8,712 8,712 Shareholders' equity 5,597 5,741 7,864 13,174 13,797 Other equity - - 34 - - Total equity 5,597 5,741 7,898 13,174 13,797 Total liabilities & equity 12,485 15,289 19,741 24,874 27,497
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Revenue growth (%) 17.3 (28.3) 178.3 32.9 11.3 Operating profit growth (%) 45.6 (44.4) 189.5 38.5 11.4 Net profit growth (%) 25.8 (46.9) 196.9 23.3 14.0 EPS growth (%) 23.1 (51.2) 162.7 1.6 1.0 Bv per share growth (%) 7.8 (9.9) 22.0 29.3 4.7 Operating margin (%) 43.2 33.5 34.8 36.3 36.3 Net profit margin (%) 29.5 21.9 23.3 21.6 22.2 Return on average assets (%) 7.0 3.1 7.4 7.2 7.0 Return on average equity (%) 15.5 7.7 19.1 15.2 13.5 Net debt to equity (%) 91.9 133.6 120.4 72.6 85.8 DPS 1.00 0.40 1.00 1.05 1.20 Recurrent cash flow per share 1.63 0.68 2.89 2.46 2.53
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB) 16 September 2013
SWOT Analysis
Thailand’s largest developer/operator of ready-built Its industrial factories and warehouses estate (IE) in Ayuthaya will Uses REITs and property funds as vehicles to take time to monetize assets. regain investor confidence post- 2011 floods
Sensitive to external and internal risks Healthy FDI flowing into Thailand Rental income from a standard three-year contract is a buffer against any downturn New public infrastructure like high-speed trains and a flood protection system will Demand is slow in the Ayuthaya flood zone, where restore the half of its rental properties are located value of its High gearing Ayuthaya properties
P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE
35 200% 3.0 25%
30 157% 2.5 21%
25 114% 2.0 17% 20 71% 1.5 13% 15 29% 1.0 8% 10 -14%
5 -57% 0.5 4%
0 -100% 0.0 0%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Company Profile Ticon Industrial Connection is Thailand's largest developer and operator of ready-built factory and warehouse space for rent. As at end- June 2013, its total rental space stood at 944k sq m, with another 220k sq m of space under construction. The occupancy rates for its rental factories and warehouses are 73% and 67%, respectively. The group’s current landbank, at 3,235 rai, is sufficient to last for the next 3-4 years.
See important disclosures at the end of this report 6
Ticon Ind Conection (TICON TB) 16 September 2013
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
28 Recommendations & Target Price
NR
15.0 15.0 31.0 31.0 24.0 23
18
13
8
3 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Sep-08 Dec-09 Apr-11 Jul-12
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
Date Recommendation Target Price Price 2013-07-11 Buy 24.0 18.1 2013-05-16 Buy 31.0 23.8 2013-03-15 Buy 31.0 25.3
2012-08-08 Buy 15.0 12.6 Source : RHB estimates, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report 7
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012
ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB
2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ ด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผู้ลงทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจ ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนาเสนอ ในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน
อนึ่ง ผลการสารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจ เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทั้งนี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด