1 Introduction: Ethnic Mobilization During Democratization 1

Notes

1 Introduction: Ethnic Mobilization during Democratization 1. See Jessica Piombo, “Political Parties, Social Demographics and the Decline of Ethnic Mobilization in South Africa, 1994–1999,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (July 2005): 447–470. 2. See, for example Donald Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society (Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press, 1991) and Arend Lijphart, “The Politics of Transition in South Africa: Report of a Faculty Seminar,” PS: Political Science and Politics 26, no. 3 (September 1993): 534–535. 3. A partial list of these regimes during the 1960s and ’70s includes Benin (single party), Chad (single party), Comoros (single party), Republic of Congo (single party), Equatorial Guinea (single party), Gabon (de facto single party), Ghana (single party and military rule), Guinea (single party), Guinea Bissau (single party), Kenya (de facto single party), Madagascar (military rule), Malawi (single party), Mali (single party), Niger (single party and military rule), Rwanda (single party), Seychelles (single party), Sierra Leone (coups and then single party), Tanzania (single party), Togo (single party), and Zambia (single party). This classification is based on the author’s analysis. 4. Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press, 1985); Donald L. Horowitz, “Democracy in Divided Societies,” Journal of Democracy 4, no. 4 (October 1993): 18–38; Jack Snyder From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000); Marina Ottaway, Democracy and Ethnic Nationalism: African and Eastern European Experiences, ODC Policy Essay No. 141994. On the general relationship between democracy and war, see Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, “Democratization and the Danger of War,” International Security 20, no. 1 (Summer 1995): 5–37, and “Democratization and War,” Foreign Affairs 74, no. 3 (May–June 1995): 79–97. 184 NOTES

5. A procedural definition of democratization is found in the works of Joseph Schumpeter and Robert Dahl. See Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Harper & Brothers, 1942), and Robert Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1971). 6. Kanchan Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed: Patronage and Ethnic Head Counts in India (New York and Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), 2. 7. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 52. 8. Ernest Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983), 7. 9. Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence. For comprehensive overviews of theories of ethnic conflict, see Michael Brown, “Ethnic and Internal Conflicts,” in Turbulent Peace: The Challenges of Managing International Conflict (Washington, DC: USIP Press, 2001), and Ashutosh Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002), particularly 18–39. 10. See, for example, David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, “Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict,” International Security 21, no. 2 (Autumn 1996): 41–75. Lake and Rothchild present a variation of Barry Posen’s ethnic conflict and security dilemma thesis, applied to transitional periods. 11. Lake and Rothchild, “Containing Fear.” 12. See, for example, Beverly Crawford, “The Causes of Cultural Conflict: An Institutional Approach,” in The Myth of “Ethnic Conflict,” ed. Beverly Crawford and Ronnie Lipschutz, International and Area Research Series No. 98 (University of California, Berkeley, 1998), 3–43, 11. 13. See James R. Scarritt and Shaheen Mozaffar, “The Specification of Ethnic Cleavages and Ethnopolitical Groups for the Analysis of Democratic Competition in Contemporary Africa,” Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 5, no. 1 (1999): 82–117. In a later article, Mozaffar, Scarritt, and Galaich count a group as ethnopolitical only if it has been politically mobilized for at least ten years before a first election (Shaheen Mozaffar, James R. Scarritt, and Glen Galaich, “Electoral Institutions, Ethnopolitical Institutions, and Party Systems in Africa’s Emerging Democracies,” American Political Science Review 97, no. 3 (August 2003): 379–390, 383. Mozaffar and Scarritt’s most recent work begins to ask why certain dimensions of ethnicity are politicized while others remain latent (Shaheen Mozaffar and James R. Scarritt, “Patterns of Ethnopolitical Cleavages in Africa,” unpublished manu- script, 2009). 14. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 108. 15. Edward Shils, “Primordial, Personal, Sacred and Civil Ties: Some Particular Observations on the Relationships of Sociological Research and Theory,” British Journal of Sociology 8, no. 2 (June 1957): 130–145; NOTES 185

Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (particularly chapter 2); Harold Isaacs, “Basic Group Identity: The Idols of the Tribe,” in Ethnicity: Theory and Experience, ed. Nathan Glazer and Daniel P. Moynihan (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1975); Clifford Geertz, “The Integrative Revolution: Primordial Sentiments and Civil Politics in the New States,” in Old Societies and New States: The Quest for Modernity in Asia and Africa, ed. Clifford Geertz (New York: Free Press, 1963). 16. Robert Bates, “Ethnic Competition and Modernization in Contemporary Africa,” Comparative Political Studies 6, no. 4 (January 1974): 457–483; Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism (New York: Verso, 1983); Nathan Glazer and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, “Introduction,” in Ethnicity: Theory and Experience (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1975); Frederick Barth, Ethnic Groups and Boundaries (Boston: Little Brown, 1969). 17. Bruce Berman, Dickson Eyoh, and William Kymlicka, “Ethnicity and Democracy in Historical & Comparative Perspective,” in Ethnicity and Democracy in Africa, ed. Bruce Berman, Dickson Eyoh, and Will Kymlicka (Oxford: James Currey; Athens, OH: Ohio University Press, 2004), 3. For an early definitive treatment of the subject, see Crawford Young, “Nationalism, Ethnicity and Class in Africa: A Retrospective,” Cahiers d’Etudes Africaines 26, no. 3 (1986): 421–495. 18. See, for example, Daniel Posner, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa (New York and Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005). 19. Naomi Chazan et al., Politics and Society in Contemporary Africa, 3rd ed. (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1999), 108. 20. Abner Cohen, Custom and Politics in Urban Africa (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1969); Berman, Eyoh, and Kymlicka, “Ethnicity and Democracy.” 21. See Courtney Jung, “Race, Ethnicity, Religion,” in The Oxford Handbook of Contextual Political Analysis, ed. Robert E. Goodin and Charles Tilly (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006). 22. David Laitin, Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change among the Yoruba (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1986). 23. Leroy Vail, The Creation of Tribalism in Southern Africa (Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press, 1989), and Joshua Forrest, Subnationalism in Africa: Ethnicity, Alliance and Politics (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2004). 24. Courtney Jung, Then I Was Black: South African Political Identities in Transition (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2000). 25. For an excellent treatment of this, see the documentary “Race: The Power of an Illusion,” California Newsreel, 2003, especially Episode 3, The House We Live In, by Executive Producer, Larry Adelman; Episode Producers, Christine Herbes-Sommers, Tracy Strain, and Llewellyn Smith; and Series Coproducer, Jean Cheng. 186 NOTES

26. Anthony Marx, Making Race and Nation: A Comparison of the United States, South Africa, and Brazil (New York and Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 2. 27. Crawford and Lipschutz, especially Crawford’s theoretical introduction, “The Causes of Cultural Conflict: An Institutional Approach.” For one of the best detailed case studies of the Russians and how they adapted in the post-Soviet era, see David Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (New York: Cornell University Press, 1998). 28. Johanna Kristin Birnir, Ethnicity and Electoral Politics (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007). 29. Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed, see especially chapter 2. 30. James R. Scarritt, “Communal Conflict and Contention for Power in Africa South of the Sahara,” in Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts, ed. Ted Robert Gurr (Washington, DC: U. S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); Julius O. Ihonvbere, “The ‘Irrelevant’ State: Ethnicity and the Quest for Nationhood in Africa,” Ethnic and Racial Studies 17, no 1. (January 1994): 42–60; Dunstan M. Wai, “Sources of Communal Conflicts and Secessionist Politics in Africa,” Ethnic and Racial Studies 1, no. 3 (July 1978): 286–303; Henry S. Bienen, “The State and Ethnicity: Integrative Formulas in Africa,” in Armed Forces, Conflict and Change in Africa (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989); Larry Diamond, “Review Article: Ethnicity and Conflict,” Journal of Modern African Studies 25, no. 1 (1987): 117–128; Harvey Glickman, ed., Ethnic Conflict and Democratization in Africa (Atlanta, GA: African Studies Association Press, 1995). 31. Eric D. Weitz, A Century of Genocide: Utopias of Race and Nation (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2003), especially 190–235; and V. P. Gagnon, Jr., “Serbia’s Road to War,” in Nationalism, Ethnic Conflict and Democracy, ed. Larry Diamond and Marc Plattner (Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994). 32. V. P. Gagnon, Jr., The Myth of Ethnic War: Serbia and Croatia in the 1990s (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2004). 33. Kristen P. Williams, “Internationalization of Ethnic Conflict in the Balkans: The Breakup of Yugoslavia,” in Ethnic Conflict and International Politics: Explaining Diffusion and Escalation, ed. Steven Lobell and Philip Mauceri (New York and London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), 75–94. 34. Mozaffar and Scarritt, “Patterns of Ethnopolitical Cleavages.” 35. Daniel Ziblatt, “Of Course to Generalize, but How Much?” APSA-CP Newsletter 17, no. 2 (Summer 2006): 8–11. Ziblatt writes: “[T]he best middle-range theory begins with real-world empirical puzzles, then weighs the analytical power of competing arguments to explain both process and outcomes, and finally develops broader arguments out of specific empirical findings” (8). NOTES 187

36. Cf. Clifford Geertz, “Thick Descriptions: Toward an Interpretive Theory of Cultures,” in The Interpretation of Cultures (New York: Basic Books, 1973). 37. For detailed analyses of the logic of ethnic voting and the individual basis of ethnic identity in South Africa, see Karen E. Ferree “The Microfoundations of Ethnic Voting: Evidence from South Africa,” Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 40 (2004), and Courtney Jung, Then I Was Black. Posner’s Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Zambia examines the bottom-up formation of politicized ethnic cleavage in Zambia, though since a critical component of his argument relies on the “coalition choices of political actors,” (8) our two analyses com- plement each other rather than compete. 38. Donald L. Horowitz, The Deadly Ethnic Riot (Berkeley, Los Angeles, and London: University of California Press, 2001). 39. Since the conception of this project, the DP and the NNP merged into a single party, the Democratic Alliance, in July 2000, and then split back into their original organizations in September 2001. They ran as separate parties in the 1999 elections, as the joint party in the December 2000 (municipal) elections, and as separate parties in the 2004 national elections. By the 2006 local elections, the NNP had ceased to exist as an independent political organization, and most of its members had been absorbed into the ANC. In this work, the two parties are kept separate when they are discussed as distinct entities, and the joint DA is discussed in reference to the 2000 municipal elections. References to the DP have been replaced by references to the DA in all post-July 2000 discussions, since the existing DA organization is basically the DP. 40. On the uses and utility of case study approaches, see John Gerring, “What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good For?” APSR 98, no. 2 (May 2004): 341–354. For a few classic proponents of the case study approach, see Harry Eckstein, “Case Study and Theory in Political Science,” in Handbook of Political Science, vol. 7, ed. Fred Greenstein and Nelson Polsby (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975); and Alexander George, “Case Studies and Theory Development: The Method of Structured Focused Comparison,” in Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy, ed. Paul Lauren (New York: Free Press, 1979) who argue for the use of case studies in this approach.

2 Shaping Strategies of Political Mobilization 1. See, for example, Benjamin Reilly, Democracy in Divided Societies: Electoral Engineering for Conflict Management (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001) for a recent and comprehensive work on the subject. The full discussion of this literature can be found in chapter 3. 188 NOTES

2. Robert Putnam, Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), and Shaheen Mozaffar, “The Institutional Logic of Ethnic Politics: A Prolego- menon,” in Ethnic Conflict and Democratization in Africa. 3. Donald L. Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society (Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press, 1991); Arend Lijphart, Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990 (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 1994); Mozaffar, “The Institutional Logic”; Andrew Reynolds, Electoral Systems and Democratization in Southern Africa (London and New York: Oxford University Press, 1999); Andrew Reynolds and Benjamin Reilly, The International IDEA Handbook of Electoral System Design (Stockholm, Sweden: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 1997); Giovanni Sartori, Parties and Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1976); and Giovanni Sartori, Comparative Constitutional Engineering: An Inquiry into Structures, Incentives and Outcomes (New York: New York University Press, 1994). The classic works on this subject include Giovanni Sartori, “The Influence of Electoral Systems: Faulty Laws or Faulty Method?” in Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences, ed. Bernard Grofman and Arend Lijphart (New York: Agathon, 1986); Sartori, Comparative Constitutional Engineering; Lijphart, Electoral Systems; Arend Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977); and Arend Lijphart, Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Twenty- Six Countries (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999). Andrew Reynolds in Electoral Systems and Democratization in Southern Africa, provides a comprehensive overview of the impact of electoral systems on democratization, including a chapter discussing the tradeoffs involved in choosing alternate electoral systems. 4. To date, most analyses of the nonmechanical effects of electoral systems have focused on coalition building, proportionality, and the representation of women. See Dennis Farrell, Comparing Electoral Systems (New York: Prentice Hall, 1997), chapter 7. Regarding proportionality, the general consensus is that district magnitude is the most important determinant of proportionality (Rein Taagepera and Matthew Soberg Shugart, Seats and Votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems [New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989]), and that electoral formulas most heavily influence the number of parties. Early works found that ballot structure had virtually no impact on proportionality (Douglass Rae, The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws [New Haven: Yale University Press, 1967]), but in his Electoral Systems and Party Systems Lijphart later found some influence of ballot structure on proportionality. NOTES 189

5. Maurice Duverger’s Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State (New York: Wiley, 1954) is the seminal work in this subset of the field. Duverger’s “law” sparked off a debate over whether proportional representation created multipartyism, or whether countries that already had multiparty systems tended to choose proportional representation electoral formulas. See William Riker, “Duverger’s Law Revisited,” and Sartori, “The Influence of Electoral Systems: Faulty Laws or Faulty Method?” both in Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences, ed. Bernard Grofman and Arend Lijphart, for both sides of the debate; consult Farrell, Comparing Electoral Systems for the synthesis. 6. Reynolds, Electoral Systems and Democratization. 7. Comments of Carina Perelli, the chief of the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division, cited in Adeed Dawisha and Larry Diamond, “Iraq’s Year of Voting Dangerously,” Journal of Democracy 17, no. 2 (April 2006): 89–103, 93. 8. Whether ethnic groups should be accommodated or forced to coop- erate with one another constitutes the basic disagreement between Arend Lijphart and Donald Horowitz. More recently, Benjamin Reilly has argued that electoral systems that compel cooperation between groups provide more stable outcomes than those that provide group protections, while Andrew Reynolds leans more toward group protections for conflict resolution. 9. Jung, Then I Was Black, 27. 10. Joel Barkan, “Elections in Agrarian Societies,” Journal of Democracy 6, no. 4 (October 1995): 106–116. 11. The IDEA Handbook of Electoral System Design and the works of Reilly and Reynolds, all discuss the full menu of electoral systems and their anticipated effects on party systems and conflict. 12. John Coakley, ed., The Territorial Management of Ethnic Conflict (London: Frank Cass, 1993). 13. Nancy Bermeo, “The Import of Institutions,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 96–110, 107. 14. Larry J. Diamond, Class, Ethnicity and Democracy in Nigeria: The Failure of the First Republic (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1988); Rotimi T. Suberu, “The Struggle for New States in Nigeria, 1976–1990,” African Affairs 90, no. 361 (1991): 499–522; John A. Ayoade, “Ethnic Management in the 1979 Nigerian Constitution,” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 16, no. 2 (Spring 1986): 73–90. 15. Andrew J. Milnor, “Institutions,” in Comparative Political Parties: Selected Readings, ed. Andrew J. Milnor (New York: Crowell, 1969). Daniel Posner recently argued that regime type exerts similar influ- ences. Daniel N. Posner, “Regime Change and Ethnic Cleavages in Africa,” Comparative Political Studies 40, no. 11 (November 2007): 302–327. 190 NOTES

16. This is an insight adapted from my own earlier work on South Africa, as well as from John A. Ayoade “Ethnic Management in the 1979 Nigerian Constitution,” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 16 (Spring 1986): 73–90; Rotimi T. Suberu, Federalism and Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2001); Rotimi T. Suberu, “Federalism and Nigeria’s Political Future: A Comment,” African Affairs, no. 348 (1988): 431–439, and Daniel Posner, “The Political Salience of Cultural Difference: Why Chewas and Tumbukas Are Allies in Zambia and Adversaries in Malawi,” American Political Science Review 98, no. 4 (2004): 529–545. Posner was analyzing individual identity selection rather than party strategies, but the logic holds. 17. Paul Lazarsfield, Bernard Berelson, and Hazel Gaudet, The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign (New York: Columbia University Press, 1948); Bernard Berelson, Paul Lazarsfield, and William McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1954). 18. Seymour Martin Lipset and Stein Rokkan, “Cleavage Structures, Party Systems and Voter Alignments: An Introduction,” in Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives, ed. Seymour Martin Lipset and Stein Rokkan (New York: Free Press, 1967). 19. See Richard Rose and Derek Urwin, “Social Cohesion, Political Parties and Strains in Regimes,” Comparative Political Studies 2 (1969); and Richard Rose, “Comparability in Electoral Studies,” in Electoral Behavior: A Comparative Handbook, ed. Richard Rose (New York: Free Press, 1974). 20. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict; Clifford Geertz, “The Integrative Revolution.” 21. Lazarsfield et al., The People’s Choice; Berelson et al., Voting. 22. Some of the earliest works in the revisionist literature include Gerard Lowenburg, “The Remaking of the German Party System: Political and Socioeconomic Factors,” Polity 1 (Fall 1968), and Gosta Esping- Anderson, “Social Class, Social Democracy and the State: Party Policy and Party Decomposition in Denmark and Sweden,” Comparative Politics 11 (October 1978). 23. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 7. 24. Posner, “The Political Salience of Cultural Difference.” 25. Mozaffar, Scarritt and Galaich, “Electoral Institutions, Ethno- political Cleavages,” 379–390. 26. William Claggett, Jeffrey Loesch, W. Phillips Shively and Ronald Snell, “Political Leadership and the Development of Political Cleavages: Imperial Germany, 1871–1912,” American Journal of Political Science 26, no. 4 (November 1982): 643–663. 27. Ibid., 653–654. NOTES 191

28. For an analysis, see Andreas Wimmer, “Democracy and Ethno- Religious Conflict in Iraq,” paper presented at the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Stanford University, May 5, 2003, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20214/wimmer.pdf (accessed on February 1, 2007). 29. Barbara Bodine, “Reaping the Whirlwind: Can We Leave Iraq Better than How We Came In?” Lecture at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, February 8, 2006. Ambassador Bodine was a member of the “Futures of Iraq” project of the Department of State, served as coordinator for postconflict reconstruction in Baghdad and the central provinces of Iraq, and is the senior fellow and director, the Governance Initiative in the Middle East, the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. 30. See Coakley, Territorial Management; Ulrich Schneckener and Stefan Wolff, eds., Managing and Settling Ethnic Conflicts: Perspectives on Successes and Failures in Europe, Africa and Asia (New York and London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004). Horowitz (Ethnic Groups in Conflict) provides a prime example of this focus, as does Benjamin Reilly, “Electoral Systems for Divided Societies,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2002): 156–170. As an example, in his volume on electoral engineering, Benjamin Reilly does not even once consider the way that federal and electoral systems interact to shape development of political parties and the bases on which they campaign (Reilly, Democracy in Divided Societies).

3 South Africa’s Political Institutions and Social Divisions 1. Parliament functioned as a Constituent Assembly from 1994 to 1996, drafting the final constitution (ratified in 1996) during this time. 2. The Harare Declaration was promulgated by an ad hoc committee of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), and its text is available on the Web site of the ANC, http://www.anc.org.za/ancdocs/history/ transition/harare.html (accessed on February 23, 2007). The declaration put forth a set of principles for a democratic South Africa that were the ANC’s core negotiating principles in the late 1980s and early ’90s. 3. See Heather Deegan, The Politics of the New South Africa: Apartheid and After (New York: Pearson Education, 2001); Timothy Sisk, Democratization in South Africa: The Elusive Social Contract (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995); and Allister Sparks, Tomorrow Is Another Country: The Inside Story of South Africa’s Road to Change (New York: Hill and Wang, 1995). 4. Marion Edmunds, “Party Lists Stay,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), April 19, 1996; Mervyn Frost, “Preparing for Democracy in an Authoritarian State,” in Launching Democracy in South Africa: The First Open Election, April 1994, ed. R. W. Johnson 192 NOTES

and Lawrence Schlemmer (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1996). 5. Frost, “Preparing for Democracy,” 32. 6. Tom Lodge, South African Politics since 1994 (Cape Town and Johannesburg: David Phillip, 1999). 7. See Schedules 4 and 5 of the 1996 Constitution, “Functional Areas of Concurrent National and Provincial Legislative Competence,” and “Functional Areas of Exclusive Provincial Legislative Competence” for the list of powers. Exclusive provincial powers include only abattoirs, ambulance services, archives other than national archives, libraries other than national libraries, liquor licenses, museums other than national museums, provincial plan- ning, provincial cultural matters, provincial recreation and amenities, provincial sport, provincial roads and traffic, and veterinary services, excluding regulation of the profession. All other powers are held concurrent with the national government. 8. David Pottie, “The First Five Years of Provincial Government,” in Election ’99 South Africa: From Mandela to Mbeki. ed. Andrew Reynolds (Cape Town: David Phillip; New York: St. Martin’s, 1999). 9. Stephen Friedman, “Power to the Provinces,” Siyaya, no. 4 (May 1, 1995), http://www.idasa.org.za/ (accessed on March 18, 2002). 10. The sunset clauses were designed to protect Afrikaners employed in the civil service. The incoming government could not fire existing civil servants; it could only replace them as they retired. 11. Quoted in Charlene Smith, “Give the Provinces Taxation Rights,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), February 12, 1999, http://www.sn.apc.org/wmail/issues/990212/NEWS43.html (accessed on March 7, 2002). 12. Idasa, Budget Watch, no 37 (October 10, 2001). In 2001, the Provincial Revenue Taxation Act was finally passed by the National Assembly, which set out some of the regulations that should pave the way for provinces to develop their own tax bases. There was much debate surrounding the passage of this bill, some of it pertaining to whether or not provinces needed the regulatory bill to be passed to initiate their own taxation legislation. For extended discussion, see Joachim Wehner, “Fiscal Federalism in South Africa,” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 30, no. 3 (Summer 2000): 47–72. 13. Pottie, “The First Five Years;” Lodge, South African Politics. 14. Smith, “Give the Provinces Taxation Rights.” 15. Barney Mthombothi, “An Unruly Majority,” Financial Mail, May 26, 2000, http://www.fm.co.za/00/0526/currents/ebarn. htm (accessed on October 18, 2000). 16. Pottie, “The First Five Years.” 17. Calland, Richard, ed. The First Five Years: A Review of South Africa’s Democratic Parliament (Cape Town: Institute for Democracy in South Africa, 1999). NOTES 193

18. The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, Sections 46 (1) (d) and 105[1]. 19. This system of awarding seats is used in highest average list PR and STV electoral systems. 20. The parties were the United Christian Democratic Front, the Freedom Front, the Federal Alliance, the Afrikaner EenheidsBeweging Party, the Azanian People’s Organization, and the Minority Front. 21. Frost, “Preparing for Democracy.” 22. Holomisa was expelled from the ANC after he publicly accused Stella Sigcau, an influential figure in the party, of corruption in the Eastern Cape. 23. It should be noted that certain provincial administrations have experienced success in pushing national government policy in certain areas, notably in the case of government policy on HIV/AIDS and the dissemination of AZT (azidothymidine), but for the most part these successes are few and far between, and where they do occur they rarely offer tangible resources. 24. The legitimacy of these terms is often contested, but for sake of continuity with other works on South Africa, I use these four labels to denote the four acknowledged race groups. The spelling of “Coloured” follows the South African convention, and “Indians” refers to people of South Asian descent. The arbitrariness of some of these categorizations is discussed in this section. 25. All figures in this section are drawn from the 1996 census. There is debate over the accuracy of this census, and one was taken again in 2001, but since 1996 represents a midpoint in the period under investigation here, the analysis is using the data. The census information was obtained from Statistics South Africa (STATS-SA) in 1999. 26. See Les Switzer, Power and Resistance in an African Society: Ciskei Xhosa and the Making of Modern South Africa (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1993) for an extensive history. 27. CIA, World Factbook, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ geos/lt.html and http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ geos/bc.html (accessed on March 29, 2006). 28. See J. D. Omer-Cooper, History of Southern Africa, 2nd ed. (Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann, 1994), especially 8–11. 29. See Ibid., chapter 8, on the origins of apartheid and its relationship to divisions between English and Afrikaans speakers. 30. G. H. L. Le May, The Afrikaners: An Historical Interpretation (Cambridge, MA and Oxford: Blackwell, 1995). 31. Gerhard Mare, Ethnicity and Politics in South Africa (New Jersey and London: Zed Books, 1993), 32–33. 32. See Jung, Then I Was Black, for an extensive treatment of the development of the Afrikaner identity. 33. In Afrikaans, the term often used for Coloureds, bruin mense, literally means brown people. Some Coloured people call themselves 194 NOTES

bruin Afrikaners (Peter Marias, “Too Long in the Twilight,” in Now that We Are Free: Coloured Communities in a Democratic South Africa, ed. Wilmot James, Daria Caliguire, and Kerry Cullinan Wilmot James [Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1996, 60]). Many others refer to “brown South Africans” and “brown communities.” 34. Yunus Carrim, “Minorities Together and Apart,” in Now that We Are Free, 47. 35. Ibid. 36. “Besides being South African, which group do you feel you belong to?” This question was part of a survey administered in July–August 2000 by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa). Answers mentioning language or ethnic groups were coded as ethnic category; mentions of “race” or a specific racial group as the racial cate- gories, and so on. Analysis was done by the author. The figures were taken from South African portion of the Southern African Barometer project. 37. Hennie Kotzé, Culture, Ethnicity and Religion: South African Perceptions of Social Identity (Johannesburg: Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung, 1997), 8. 38. Kotzé, Culture, Ethnicity and Religion. The specific question asked was the following: “When people talk about culture, language and values they see themselves in many different ways. Please take a moment to look at all of the terms on the list and choose the one term that you would use to describe yourself.” The terms used in the structured questions were based on the answers of an open-ended question on a 1994 survey conducted by Idasa staff member Robert Mattes. 39. Kotzé, Culture, Ethnicity and Religion, 10. 40. The results of the survey were reported by Business Day on August 24, 2001, and the text of the SAIRR press release can be found at http://www.sairr.org.za/wsc/pstory.htx?storyID=228 (accessed on August 27, 2001). 41. These findings are echoed by scores of public opinion data that have identified crime, the economy, and unemployment as consistently ranking among the top three concerns listed by South Africans in opinion surveys. 42. For an early proponent of the racial census idea, see R. W. Johnson, “The 1994 Election: Outcome and Analysis,” in Launching Democracy in South Africa, entire chapter, but especially 319. Johnson argued that the 1994 elections were pure racial census outcomes, while Giliomee argued that owing to primordial attachments, few voters were open to political persuasion (Hermann Giliomee, “South Africa’s Emerging Dominant Party System,” Journal of Democracy 9, no. 4 [1998]: 124–142). Reynolds and Lodge have both offered milder versions of the perspective in their works on elections in South Africa. See Andrew Reynolds, ed., Election ’94 South Africa: The NOTES 195

First Open Election (New York: St. Martin’s, 1994) and Election ’99 South Africa: From Mandela to Mbeki, and Tom Lodge, Consolidating Democracy: South Africa’s Second Popular Election (Johannesburg: Witswatersrand University Press, 1999). 43. For a discussion of this dynamic and the limits to which it can be pushed, see Nicoli Nattrass and Jeremy Seekings, “ ‘Two Nations’? Race and Economic Inequality in South Africa Today,” Daedalus: Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences 130, no. 1 (Winter 2001): 45–69. 44. Sampie Terreblanche, A History of Inequality in South Africa, 1652– 2002 (Pietermarizburg, South Africa: University of Natal Press, 2002), and Carolyn Jenkins and Lynne Thomas, “The Changing Nature of Inequality in South Africa,” Working Paper No. 203 (United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research [UNU/WIDER], October 2000). For a vignette of what these dynamics actually look like, see, “The Cape of Poverty,” Mail and Guardian Online, http://www.mg.co.za/ Content/13.asp?ap=14231 (accessed on May 16, 2003). 45. Posner, “The Political Salience of Cultural Difference.” 46. See the works of Suberu, especially “The Struggle for New States in Nigeria,” and “Federalism and Nigeria’s Political Future.” Larry Diamond, Class, Ethnicity and Democracy in Nigeria, and John Ayoade, “Ethnic Management in the 1979 Nigerian Constitution,” also discuss these dynamics.

4 Electoral Politics in South Africa, 1994–2004 1. For accounts of the transition, see the following: R. W. Johnson and Lawrence Schlemmer, Launching Democracy in South Africa: The First Open Election, April 1994 (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1996); Andrew Reynolds, ed. Election ’94 South Africa: The Campaigns, Results and Future Prospects (London: James Currey, Cape Town and Johannesburg: David Philip; New York: St Martin’s, 1994); Timothy Sisk, Democratization in South Africa: The Elusive Social Contract (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994); and Sparks, Tomorrow Is Another Country. 2. This is significant because a two-thirds majority enables the ruling party to unilaterally change the constitution. 3. Before the 2004 elections, the ANC decided that it would not announce candidates for the provincial premiers ahead of the elections. This was done both to prevent internal factionalism and to keep the electoral campaigns focused on the party and not individual candidates; this is discussed in detail in chapter 5. 4. These statements are based on the author’s interviews with multiple DP and DA campaign planners and MPs dating from 1997 through 2004. 196 NOTES

5. Jessica Piombo, “The Results of Election 2004: Looking Back, Stepping Forward,” in Electoral Politics in South Africa: Assessing the First Democratic Decade, ed. Jessica Piombo and Lia Nijzink (New York and Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005); James Hamill, “The Elephant and the Mice: Election 2004 and the Future of Opposition Politics in South Africa,” The Round Table 93, no. 377 (October 2004): 691–708. See also Anthony Lemon and Roddy Fox, “Consolidating South Africa’s New Democracy: Geographical Dimensions of Party Support in the 1999 Election,” Journal of Economic and Social Geography 91 no. 4 (2000): 89–100. 6. See Tom Lodge, “The African National Congress: There is No Party like It: Ayikho Efana Nayo,” in Electoral Politics in South Africa, and Tom Lodge, Politics in South Africa: From Mandela to Mbeki (Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 2002). 7. Jeremy Seekings, The UDF: A History of the United Democratic Front in South Africa, 1983–1991 (Cape Town: David Philip; Oxford: James Currey; Athens, OH: Ohio University Press, 2000). 8. Mamphela Ramphele, “Citizenship Challenges for South Africa’s Young Democracy,” Daedalus 130, no. 1 (Winter 2001): 1–17, especially 8, where Ramphele discusses a “hierarchy of privilege;” and Michael McDonald, “The Political Economy of Identity Politics,” South Atlantic Quarterly 103, no. 4 (Fall 2004): 629–656, especially 644. 9. Lodge, Politics in South Africa. 10. For an extended analysis of these dynamics, see Jessica Piombo, “Political Parties, Social Demographics and the Decline of Ethnic Mobilization in South Africa, 1994–1999,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (July 2005): 447–470, and Jessica Piombo, Entrenching One-Party Dominance in South Africa: Political Institutions, Social Demographics and Party Strategies, 1994–1999, Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003, http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/ 8029 (accessed on February 23, 2007). 11. Piombo, “Political Parties,” and Piombo, Entrenching One-Party Dominance. 12. The most notable statements by the NNP on this subject can be found in the debate in the National Assembly on the future of Afrikaners, held in February 1999. 13. These dynamics are discussed in detail in chapter 5. 14. Jeremy Michaels, “We Will Not Be Disbanding—NNP,” Cape Times April 26, 2004. In fact, demonstrating that they already knew the end was near, the NNP barely even staffed their monitoring booth at the IEC results center in Cape Town on election night (author’s observation). 15. This party existed only at the local level, as the parties were prevented from merging at the national and provincial levels by constitutional provisions that then existed against floor crossing in the national and NOTES 197

provincial legislatures. See David Welsh, “Introduction,” in Tony Leon, Hope and Fear: Reflections of a Democrat (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 1998); David Welsh, “The Democratic Party,” in Election ’94 South Africa; and Susan Booysen, “The Democratic Alliance: Progress and Pitfalls,” in Electoral Politics in South Africa, ed. Piombo and Nijzink. 16. Fox and Lemon, “Consolidating South Africa’s New Democracy,” 352. Also see Lodge, Consolidating Democracy, 172. Lodge writes that in most Indian areas in Gauteng, the DP was the ANC’s closest rival. 17. See chapter 6 of this volume. 18. The March–April 2003 defection window enabled sitting DP (and NNP) representatives at national and provincial levels to cross the floor to the DA, thus ending the existence of the DP. 19. The series of opinion polls released by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa, the South African Broadcasting Corporation, and Markinor in 1999, called “Opinion ’99” revealed that most South Africans did not perceive the DP as inclusive, and little evidence since has disconfirmed this trend. 20. Makhudu Sefara and Eleanor Momberg, “It’s Deal Time for Choosing SA’s Premiers,” Star (Johannesburg), April 19, 2004. 21. Gavin Davis, “The Electoral Temptation of Race in South Africa: Implications for the 2004 Election,” Transformation 53 (2003): 4–28; Rod Alence, “South Africa after Apartheid: The First Decade,” Journal of Democracy 15, no. 3 (July 2004): 78–92.

5 The African National Congress: Playing to Win 1. For detailed histories of the ANC, see Saul Dubow, The African National Congress (Gloucestershire, UK: Sutton, 2000); Frances Meli, South Africa Belongs to Us: A History of the ANC (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1988). For comprehensive accounts of the 1994 to 1999 period, see Lodge, South African Politics; and Heribert Adam, Kogila Moodley, and Frederik Van Zyl Slabbert, Comrades in Business: Post-Liberation Politics in South Africa (Utrecht: International Books, 1998). The history presented in this section comes primarily from an integration of these sources. 2. See Seekings, The UDF. 3. Andrew Reynolds, “The Results,” Election ’94 South Africa. 4. Author interview with Andrew Reynolds, Cape Town, 1999. For a full account of this process, see R. W. Johnson’s gripping account of the 1994 election in KwaZulu-Natal, “The Election, the Count and the Drama in KwaZulu-Natal,” in Launching Democracy in South Africa. 5. See Lodge, South African Politics. 198 NOTES

6. Frost, “Preparing for Democracy,” 31. 7. See Lodge, South African Politics; and Pottie, “The First Five Years.” 8. Ahmed C. Bawa, “South Africa’s Young Democracy, Ten Years On: Guest Editor’s Introduction,” Social Research 17, no. 3 (Fall 2005): vii–xvii, xvi. 9. Deegan, The Politics of the New South Africa; UNDP, South Africa Human Development Report; Jeff Guy, “Somewhere Over the Rainbow: The Nation-State, Democracy and Race in a Globalizing South Africa,” Transformation 56 (2004): 68–89, 82. 10. McDonald, “The Political Economy of Identity Politics,” 631. 11. Sean Jacobs, Richard Calland, and Sipho Ngwema, “The Parliamentary Performance of South African Political Parties,” paper published by Idasa (Cape Town: Institute for Democracy in South Africa, September 1997). For a post-1997 analysis, see Lia Nijzink and Jessica Piombo, “The Institutions of Representative Democracy,” in Electoral Politics in South Africa, ed. Piombo and Nijzink. 12. Personal observation in Pretoria, South Africa, during February 1999. 13. Lodge, South African Politics, 7. 14. See Stephen Friedman, Building Tomorrow Today: African Workers in Trade Unions, 1970–1984 (Johannesburg: Ravan, 1987) for a review of the origins and early years of the alliance. For a discussion of the two strains of unionism that the formation of COSATU brought together, the role of unions in the liberation movement, and the formation of the alliance, see Martin Murray, The Revolution Deferred: The Painful Birth of Post-Apartheid South Africa (London: Verso, 1994). 15. See Lodge “The African National Congress,” and “The African National Congress: There Is No Party like It.” 16. McDonald, “Political Economy of Identity Politics.” 17. The political space to the left of the Tripartite Alliance was also closed, as extremely left-wing economic policies would alienate the international community whose investment South Africa desperately needed. See Susan Booysen, “Trends in Party Political Opposition Parties in South Africa—Ideological Constraints on Policy and Strategy,” Politeia 17, no. 2 (1998): 49. 18. African National Congress, “Strategy and Tactics of the African National Congress as adopted at the 49th ANC National Conference,” discussion paper prepared for the 49th National Conference of the ANC, December 1994, http://www.anc.org.za/ancdocs/policy/ stratact.html (accessed on September 25, 2002). 19. Pallo Jordan, “The National Question in Post 1994 South Africa,” discussion paper prepared for the 50th ANC National Conference, December 1997, www.anc.org.za/ancdocs/discussion/natquestion. html (accessed on October 2, 2000). NOTES 199

20. “Strategy and Tactics of the African National Congress as adopted at the 49th ANC National Conference, December 1994,” http://www. anc.org.za/ancdocs/policy/stratact.html (accessed on September 30, 2002). HTML document; no page numbers available. 21. Ibid. 22. Jordan, “The National Question.” 23. Lodge, South African Politics. 24. Kaiser Nyatsumba, “Mandela: First among Equals,” Star (Johannesburg), March 2, 1999. 25. Quoted from Mandela’s address to the 50th National Conference of in December 1997, in Lynne Duke, “Mandela: Whites Fighting Reform,” Washington Post, December 17, 1997. 26. Ngonyama was commenting on news coverage of the ANC’s dismissal of its Northern Province premier Matthews Phosa in early 1999 (quoted in “Fighting Talk,” Sunday Independent, May 2, 1999). 27. Patrick Bulger, “Executive Slams ANC Indiscipline,” Star (Johannesburg), August 19, 1996; emphasis added. 28. Mondli Makhanya, “Death of Dissent within the ANC,” Star (Johannesburg), August 16, 1996. 29. Kaiser Nyatsumba, “First among Equals.” 30. ANC, “A Statement of the National Executive Committee of the ANC on the Occasion of the 86th Anniversary of the African National Congress,” statement issued by the ANC Department of Information and Publicity, Marshalltown, South Africa, January 8, 1998. 31. Max Sisulu, “Gloves Are Off in Parliament,” Mayibuye (March 1998). Sisulu was the ANC’s chief whip and a member of parliament at the time he wrote this article. 32. See, for example, the comments of Smuts Ngonyama, presidential spokesperson, in Pearl Sebolao, “Selection of Premiers Will Be Centralised,” Business Day (Johannesburg), March 24, 1999. 33. For example, COSATU president John Gomomo repeatedly claimed this as the ANC goal, as did Northern Province premier Mathole Motshega. See Sebolao, “Two-Thirds Majority Will Put ANC ‘Truly in Power,’ ” Business Day (Johannesburg), April 15, 1999; also reported in EISA, Election ’99 Update, no. 9 (March 26, 1999). 34. Lodge, “The African National Congress,” and “The African National Congress: There Is No Party like It.” 35. Ibid. 36. ANC, “People’s Manifesto for Change,” March 1999. 37. Author’s observations based on fieldwork in Cape Town, South Africa, in March and April 2004. These sentiments can also be found in the weekly online newspaper, ANC Today, during this time, especially the weekly letter by President Mbeki. See http://www.anc.org. za/ancdocs/anctoday/ (accessed on February 24, 2007), for the archives, which go back to the publication’s creation in 2001. 200 NOTES

38. The work of the Opinion ’99 consortium, which took regular opinion polls and published reports throughout 1998 and 1999, had documented the vast swings in public opinion about the ANC and its performance. The Opinion ’99 project had brought together the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa), South African poll- ing firm Markinor, and the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC). Since then, the Afrobarometer (a joint initiative of the University of Cape Town and the University of Michigan), has taken over tracing these trends, though its focus is much less on South African electoral opinion than found in the work of the Opinion ’99 consortium. 39. EISA, Election ’99 Update no. 10 (April 16, 1999); Lodge, “The African National Congress.” 40. EISA Update no. 12 (May 14, 1999). The same day, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela made contradictory remarks at a May Day rally in Rustenburg. 41. Ebrahim Rasool, addressing an election meeting in Claremont, a primarily white suburb in the Western Cape (Chris Bateman, “Privileged Told to Deal with Insecurities,” Cape Times, May 26, 1999). 42. Citizen, March 10, 1999. 43. Daily Dispatch, May 29–31, 1999. 44. Shilowa to a community hall in the East Rand; Carol Paton, “ANC Blazes the Trail to Certain Victory,” Sunday Times (South Africa), May 30, 1999. 45. Roger Friedman, “Thabo Looks to Exorcise Some Ghosts in the Plain,” Cape Times, May 31, 1999. 46. Malcolm Ray, “DP Racist, Says Cronin,” Sowetan (Johannesburg), April 9, 1999. 47. Mbeki, speaking at an African Renaissance symposium in Durban (Ranjeni Munusamy and Carol Paton, “Get Angry about the Past, Says Mbeki,” Sunday Times (South Africa), March 28, 1999. 48. Farouk Chothia, “Mbeki Is All Ears on the Campaign Trail,” Business Day (Johannesburg), May 5, 1999. 49. Mbeki, speaking at an African Renaissance symposium in Durban (Munusamy and Paton, “Get Angry about the Past”). 50. Stephen Laufer, “ANC Drops Plan for Top Team on Campaign Trail,” Business Day (Johannesburg), April 16, 1999. 51. Paddy Harper, “Parties Use Negatives for a Positive Result,” Saturday Argus (Cape Town), May 12, 1999. 52. The breakaway of some ANC elements in November 2008 and the formation of a new party, the Congress of the People, may finally challenge this dominance. This volume went to press before the 2009 elections, however, so firm evidence is not yet available. These developments are discussed in the conclusion to this volume. NOTES 201

6 The New National Party: Transforming into Irrelevance 1. The National Party changed its name to the New National Party (NNP) in late 1998. Because the name change occurred with a strategic shift in the party’s orientation, the difference between NP and NNP is significant. This work refers to the party as the National Party or NP until the point of the name change, after which the current name is used (New NP, NNP, and New National Party). When discussing the party over the entire ten-year period, it will be referred to as NNP, New NP, Nats or Nationalists. 2. See Sparks, Tomorrow Is Another Country for an account of these secret negotiations. 3. The interim constitution under which South Africa became democratic provided power-sharing mechanisms, creating the “Government of National Unity.” Parties winning eighty or more seats in the National Assembly could nominate an executive deputy president, and those earning over twenty seats were guaranteed membership in the cabinet. In 1994 the ANC, NP, and IFP earned cabinet positions. These power- sharing arrangements were not retained in the final Constitution of 1996. See Robert Schrire, “The President and the Executive,” in South Africa: Designing New Political Institutions, ed. Murray Faure and Jan- Erik Lane (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1996). 4. In the remaining province, KwaZulu-Natal, the NP came in third. See Willie Breytenbach, “The New National Party,” in Election ’99 South Africa, for a discussion of the rise and decline in the fortunes of the NNP between 1994 and 1999. 5. Reynolds, “The Results,” in Election ’94 South Africa, 192. 6. Chris Louw, “No Identity Crisis, Claims Relaxed FW,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), August 5, 1994; Derek Fleming, “Ministers in Nat Power Struggle,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), December 6, 1995. 7. Personal conflicts undoubtedly played a role in this move: Kriel and Meyer had been feuding since at least 1994, as they had opposite views for the best party strategy and the two were competing to be the suc- cessor to F. W. de Klerk upon his retirement. See Marion Edmunds, “Nats Keeping the Battle Plan Secret,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), October 6, 1995. 8. See Dirk Kotzé, “NP Punts for a New Power Base,” Star (Johannesburg), February 16, 1996, and Anthony Johnson, “Meyer Needs Two Small Miracles,” Cape Times, February 28, 1996. Unlike most Christian- Democratic parties, the NP’s affiliation was with the Afrikaner Dutch- Reformed Church, a Protestant denomination. 9. Gauteng NP leader Olaus van Zyl quoted in “NP Pledges ‘Vibrant’ Opposition in Gauteng,” Citizen (South Africa) July 31, 1996. 202 NOTES

10. Breytenbach, “The New National Party,” 118. 11. For example, in November 1995 the provincial minister of local government in the Western Cape, Peter Marais, stated, “Our party is too White . . . .Our packaging is still too White,” (Barry Streek, “NP ‘White’ Image under Fire,” Cape Times, November 20, 1995). Marais was one of the most prominent Coloured leaders in the NP. See also “Dilemma of a ‘Too White NP,’ ” editorial in Cape Times, November 21, 1995; and “NP Policy Body 80% White,” Cape Times, June 21, 1996. 12. Patrick McKenzie, “NP Aims to Base Its Politics on Shared Values,” Cape Times, October 2, 1996. 13. See Adrian Hadland, “NP’s New Vision Gets a Skeptical Response,” Sunday Weekend Argus (Cape Town), February 17–18, 1996; Hennie Serfontein, “Future Looks Black for Nationalists,” Cape Times, July 16, 1996; and Mark Gevisser, “This Boereseun’s a Smooth Operator,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), February 9, 1995. 14. Mavuso was an ex-ANC executive member; McKenzie was the member of Executive Council (MEC) for Police in the Western Cape; and David Malatsi was appointed one of the party’s senators from Mpumalanga, one of the two deputy secretaries-general appointed in 1996, and later on was selected as the leader of the Mpumalanga NP. 15. Patrick Bulger, “NP Must Beware of Landing Up on the Ocean Floor,” Star (Johannesburg), March 5, 1996. 16. The departures included Deputy Land Affairs Minister Tobie Meyer (brother of Roelf Meyer), NP Minister of Welfare and Population Development Abe Williams, Bhadra Ranchod, deputy speaker of the National Assembly and one of the party’s most senior nonwhite members, former deputy minister Wynand Breytenbach, finance committee member Francois Jacobsz, Senator Sathie Naidoo, Pik Botha, Leon Wessels, and Chris Fismer. Naidoo was expelled for offences including “insufficient devotion to party duty.” See Clive Sawyer, “Nats Still Wrestling with an Identity Crisis,” Cape Argus (Cape Town), December 10, 1996; and Serfontein, “Future Looks Black for Nationalists.” 17. As the Truth and Reconciliation Commission undertook hearings throughout the country, the disclosures made had hurt the party’s standings among many whites who had not realized the extent of apartheid-era atrocities. One senior Nat leader described the work- ings of Truth Commission as being “like a taxpayer-funded inquisi- tion into the National party,” (Sawyer, “Nats Still Wrestling”). 18. Anthony Johnson, “Moment of Truth Gives NP Cold Feet,” Cape Times, May 7, 1997. 19. Interview by author with Lawrence Solomon, NNP organizer on June 10, 1997, in Cape Town (Berg Street headquarters). 20. Interview with Solomon (1997). Similar views were expressed by Ms. Khan, NNP local councilor in Heideveld during an interview with the author on May 11, 1999 at the National Party Offices on NOTES 203

Berg Street, Cape Town and by Edwin Conroy, Gauteng provincial manager and executive secretary of the Provincial Party, (author interview) on March 31, 1999 at the NNP National Headquarters, Hornkloof, Pretoria. Solomon and the others interviewed cited pressures from below that also motivated the decision; these decisions were based more on emotional connections rather than the career- driven calculations of the party elites. Conservative Afrikaners in the party considered the National Party to be the party of Afrikaners in the past and the future, while Coloured supporters opposed the name because they felt that they had sacrificed and been ridiculed for their actions. If the party changed its name it would be a different entity altogether, and not the organization for which they had risked so much. 21. Fleming, “Ministers in Nat Power Struggle.” 22. On Meyer’s resignation, see Marion Edmunds, “How Roelf Broke the Rules,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), May 9, 1997. The other resignations included the entire Gauteng Youth Action leadership, who took with them youth leaders from two of Pretoria’s previously most staunchly pro-NP universities: Rand Afrikaans University and Pretoria University (“Youth Split Spells Problem for NP,” Weekly Mail and Guardian). Within a week of Meyer’s resignation, David Chuenyane, a senior black member in the NP, called for senior Nat leaders to resign because they had failed to appoint blacks to decision-making positions. In Gauteng alone, Chuenyane con- tended, all party councilors and provincial legislators were white, Coloured, or Indian; Africans were left out of the party (“New Rift as Black Nats Fall Out and Youth Chief Quits,” Cape Argus, May 21, 1997; and “Top Nats Should Go–Party MP: ‘NP Leadership Gives Blacks Cold Shoulder,’ ” Cape Times, May 20, 1997). 23. Howard Barrell, “NNP’s Last Days in Cloud-Cuckoo Land,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), January 29–February 4, 1999. 24. Sawyer, “Nats Still Wrestling with an Identity Crisis,” and Breytenbach, “The New National Party,” 119–120. 25. Local elections in South Africa are held on both a proportional and constituency basis, with half the seats contested on party lists and half in first-past-the-post single member constituencies. By-elections are held when a politician vacates a constituency seat. 26. Mukoni T. Ratshitanga, “White SA Shuns the Nats,” Electronic Mail and Guardian (South Africa), May 15, 1998. 27. Ibid. 28. Comments of federal council member and MP Sheila Camerer, in Ratshitanga, “White SA Shuns the Nats.” See also Donald McNeil, Jr., “Apartheid’s Architects Losing White Votes in South Africa,” New York Times, May 17, 1998. 29. Chiara Carter, “Cape Nats in Disarray,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), March 5–11, 1999. 204 NOTES

30. EISA, Election ’99 Update, no. 6 (February 17, 1999). 31. EISA, Update no. 8 (March 12, 1999). 32. Howard Barrell, “NNP Voter Support ‘Collapsing,’ ” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), April 9–15, 1999. 33. During the registration period, several parties contested the ANC’s decision to accept only a certain form of identity documents for voter registration. Opinion poll evidence in November 1998 indicated that the supporters of the NNP and DP were least likely to possess the correct documents, and therefore the requirement had the potential to disenfranchise large sections of these parties’ supporters. In the end, the ANC did not change the requirement, but the controversy held up the elections process for some time. See Lodge, Consolidating Democracy; Patrick Laurence, “The Fight for a Free and Fair Ballot,” Financial Mail (South Africa), February 5, 1999; and Laurence, “One in Five L ack Proper I Ds to Vote,” Electronic Mail and Guardian (South Africa), November 10, 1998. 34. This was the order in which van Schalkwyk introduced the topics during his speech launching the election manifesto to the Federal Congress in March 1999. 35. Personal observation, as well as reported in EISA, Update no. 8 (March 12, 1999). 36. Marthinus van Schalkwyk, speech at Manifesto Launch, March 1999; personal observation. 37. Robert Mattes, Helen Taylor, and Cherrel Africa, “The Public Agenda,” Opinion ’99 Press Release, January 1999. Respondents were asked an open-ended question, “What is the most important problem that the government ought to address?” They were then asked for their second and third choices. These figures represent a compellation of the three choices. The most important problems for Coloureds and Indians were not reported. See also, Robert Mattes, Helen Taylor, and Cherrel Africa, “Public Opinion and Voter Preference, 1994–1999,” in Election 99 South Africa. 38. Cheryl Hendricks, “On the Campaign Trail in the Western Cape,” Election Update 2004 South Africa no. 6 (April 12, 2004): 23–25, 24. 39. Donwald Pressly, “Nats May Be in Decline but They Are Singing,” The Electronic Mail and Guardian, http://www.mg.co.za/Content/ l3.asp?ao=33443 (accessed on April 2, 2004). 40. Marthinus van Schalkwyk, speaking in Stellenbosch, quoted in Ilse Arendse, “ ‘NNP Has Voice within Government’,” News24, March 27, 2004, http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/News/ 0,6119,2–7-1442_1504434,00.html (accessed on April 4, 2004). 41. Bonny Schoonakker, “Van Schalkwyk Gets Fired Up for Election Battle,” Sunday Times (South Africa), February 29, 2004, http:// www.sundaytimes.co.za/2004/02/29/politics/politics03.asp (accessed on March 5, 2004). NOTES 205

42. Cheryl Hendricks, “Western Cape: A Vote for Tradition, Personalities or Issues?” Election Update 2004 (Johannesburg: Electoral Institute of South Africa) no 2, (February 16, 2004): 33–35, 33. 43. Schoonakker, “Van Schalkwyk Gets Fired Up.” 44. Personal observation in 1999 and 2004. For specific examples from 2004, see Cheryl Hendricks, “On the Campaign Trail in the Western Cape.” 45. “ANC-NNP Coalition is Here to Stay,” This Day, February 16, 2004.

7 From Democratic Party to Democratic Alliance: Mobilizing Minority Power? 1. In the floor-crossing window in March–April 2003, the national and provincial wings of the Democratic Party dissolved and renamed themselves the Democratic Alliance (DA). The DA had existed at local levels since municipal elections in 2001. For consistency’s sake when referring to the entire 1994–2004 period, I call the party the DA. Discussions of the party before the name change use the old name, DP. 2. This was a common theme among interviewees throughout the 1999 and 2004 campaign seasons. 3. Welsh, “The Democratic Party.” 4. Ibid., 108. 5. Kotzé, “The Potential Constituencies of the Democratic Alliance: What Dowries Do the DP and the NNP Bring to the Marriage?” paper prepared for presentation at the conference “Opposition in South Africa’s New Democracy,” Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa, June 28–30, 2000. 6. Lodge, Consolidating Democracy, 110; Welsh, “The Democratic Party.” 7. Lodge, Consolidating Democracy, 111; Welsh “The Democratic Party.” Welsh was quoting a DP strategy document released in 1993: Invest DP for Power and Peace. 8. Welsh, “The Democratic Party,” Lodge, Consolidating Democracy, 111. Welsh was again quoting the 1993 strategy document. 9. On the provincial ballot the DP picked up about 500,000 more votes (overall when votes are pooled from all the provinces) than on the national ballot. 10. R. W. Johnson, “The 1994 Election: Outcome and Analysis,” 308. 11. Reynolds, “The Results,” in Election ’94 South Africa, 197–198. 12. Ibid. 13. Welsh, “The Democratic Party,” and Reynolds, “The Results,” in Election ’94 South Africa, 198. 14. Richard Calland, ed., The First Five Years: A Review of South Africa’s Democratic Parliament (Cape Town: Institute for Democracy in 206 NOTES

South Africa, 1999); Jacobs, Calland, and Ngwema, “Parliamentary Performance.” 15. Interview by author with a DP MP in Cape Town, June 1997; name withheld on request. 16. Gaye Davis, “ ‘New’ DP Will Still Snap at the Government’s Heels,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), November 8, 1996. 17. Ibid. For an in-depth discussion of the strategic shift in the DP, see Paul Bell and Charlene Smith, “Little Landslides, Seismic Shocks,” Leadership 16, no. 4 (October–November 1997). 18. Jacobs, Calland, and Ngwema, “Parliamentary Performance.” 19. Lia Nijzink, “Parliamentary Procedures and Party Strategies: The Scope for Opposition in the New South African Parliament,” paper prepared for presentation at the conference “Opposition in South Africa’s New Democracy,” Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa, June 28—30, 2000, 10. Nijzink notes that the ANC, in a postelection assessment, conceded that the DP’s effective use of question time “might have” contributed to its electoral success. 20. Sean Jacobs, “DP Draws on Past Experience,” Parliamentary Whip, October 6, 1997. 21. Howard Barrell, “Dear Lord, Have Mercy on Kortbroek,” Electronic Mail and Guardian (South Africa), August 7, 1998, www.mg.co.za/ mg/news/98aug1/7aug-np.html (accessed on November 15, 1999). 22. Bell and Smith, “Little Landslides, Seismic Shocks.” 23. Ratshitanga, “White SA Shuns the Nats;” and McNeil, “Apartheid’s Architects.” 24. Barrell, “NNP Voter Support ‘Collapsing.’ ” 25. Welsh, “The Democratic Party.” 26. See Howard Barrell, “DP Attempts to Take Centre Stage,” Weekly Mail and Guardian (South Africa), September 18, 1999, web.sn.apc.org/ mail/issues/980918/NEWS119.html (accessed on May 19, 1999). 27. Chiara Carter, “Key Western Cape Nats Seek New Political Home,” Electronic Mail and Guardian (South Africa), December 18, 1998, web.sn.apc.org/wmail/issues/981218/NEWS23.html (accessed on May 19, 1999); and “Cape Nats in Disarray.” Notable among these defectors were national MP Glen Carelse, WC (Western Cape) politician Antoinette Versfeld (who commanded support in the West Coast, an area north of Cape Town heavily made up of Coloured working-class communities), provincial economics committee chair Charles Redcliffe, and Henry and Pauline Cupido, prominent Coloured politicians in the Western Cape. 28. Charlene Smith, “Let’s Shut the Shop, Says Nat as He Quits,” Electronic Mail and Guardian (South Africa), May 22, 1998, www. mg.co.za/mg/news/98may2/22may-nats.html (accessed on July 20, 1999). 29. “Interview: Tony Leon,” Focus (A Journal of the Suzman Foundation), July 1998, www.hsf.org.za/Focus_11/f11-leon.html. NOTES 207

30. For detailed accounts of the DP’s 1999 election campaign, see Welsh, “The Democratic Party,” and Lodge, Consolidating Democracy. On the 2004 campaign, see Booysen, “The Democratic Alliance: Progress and Pitfalls,” and the election updates produced by the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa, www.eisa.co.za). EISA produced bimonthly election updates in advance of both the 1999 and 2004 elections; these contain detailed information on election campaigns within each province and on the national tier. Since the goal of this chapter is to illustrate the way that institutions and demographics shaped party choices, this chapter will not provide a full account of the election campaign. 31. Democratic Party of South Africa, “The Guts to Fight Back: Candidate’s Handbook, Election Campaign 1999,” The Democratic Party of South Africa, 1999, 3; emphasis in original. 32. Interview with Lynn Ploos van Amstel (Durban, April 22, 1999). 33. Interview with van Amstel. 34. Leon, media briefing reported by Malcolm Ray on April 7, 1999. 35. Interview with Mannie de Freitas (Johannesburg, March 9, 1999). 36. Davis, “The Electoral Temptation of Race in South Africa;” Hendricks, “On the Campaign Trail in the Western Cape,” 25. 37. Davis, “The Electoral Temptation of Race,” 13. 38. Suthentira Govender, “Indian Candidates Well Placed on DA Lists,” Sunday Times (South Africa), February 8, 2004, http:// www.sundaytimes.co.za/2004/02/08/news/durban/ndbn07.asp (accessed on February 10, 2004). 39. Booysen, “The Democratic Alliance.” According to then DA strate- gist Ryan Coetzee, the party spent 30 percent of its election budget on advertising in print and on radio (Xolisa Vapi, “Different Strokes for Politicking Folk,” Sunday Times [South Africa], April 4, 2004, http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2004/04/04/politics/politics06.asp [accessed on April 4, 2004]). 40. Paddy Harper, “Scent of Blood in Air as Opposition Gears Up,” Sunday Independent, April 4, 2004, http://www.iol.co.za/index. php?sf=6&click_id=13&art_id=ct20040404105602829L500322& set_id=1 (accessed on April 4, 2004). 41. S’Thembiso Msomi, “DA’s Quest for Black Votes,” Sunday Times (South Africa), February 15, 2004, http://www.sundaytimes.co. za/2004/02/15/politics/politics02.asp (accessed on February 20, 2004); and Govender, “Indian Candidates Well Placed on DA Lists.” 42. Hendricks, “On the Campaign Trail in the Western Cape,” 25. 43. Booysen, “The Democratic Alliance,” 131. 44. Hendricks, “On the Campaign Trail in the Western Cape,” 25. 45. See, for example, “Mbeki Must Say about 3rd Term,” News24, January 30, 2004, http://www.news24.com/News24/South_ Africa/Politics/0,6119,2–7-12_1476656,00.html (accessed on February 10, 2004). 208 NOTES

46. SAPA, “Van Schalkwyk Is a Loser, Says Leon,” (April 1, 2004), http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?sf=6&click_id=13&art_ id=qw1080833761964B242&set_id=1 (accessed on April 5, 2004.) According to the article, “Leon told supporters at the Kimberly city hall that Van Schalkwyk was the ‘most dishonourable figure in South African politics.’ ” “ ‘Somehow, I think Marthinus van Schalkwyk is nearing the end of his political career. He is not a leader; he is a loser,’ Leon said.” 47. Harper, “Scent of Blood in the Air.” 48. Jeremy Michaels, “Phoenix Poster War Could Win Indian Vote,” Daily News, March 1, 2004, 3, http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?sf=6&click_ id=13&art_id=vn20040301165239121C532503&set_id=1 (accessed on March 2, 2004); the quote is from SAPA, “NNP Complains to IEC about DA Advert,” (March 2, 2004) http://www.iol.co.za/index. php?click_id=13&art_id=qw107824014176B242&set_id=1 (accessed on March 4, 2004). 49. Booysen, “The Democratic Alliance.” See also Jessica Piombo, “The Results of Election 2004,” in Electoral Politics in South Africa.

8 The Inkatha Freedom Party: Turning away from Ethnic Power 1. History and Profile of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), www.ifp.org. za/ (accessed on June 20, 1999); date and author unknown. 2. Linda Wertheimer, “Inkatha Originally Organized to Preserve ANC Principles,” All Things Considered, radio interview with Mervyn Frost (professor of politics of the University of Natal, Durban) National Public Radio, April 19, 1994. 3. History and Profile. Literally, ubhoko is the sharpened fighting stick that is part of traditional Zulu male armor. 4. Ibid. 5. Ibid. 6. See Paul Taylor, “South Africa’s Right, ANC Move to End Rifts, Other Steps Lessen Likelihood of Election Boycott,” Washington Post, March 4, 1994. 7. In 1994, the Independent Electoral Commission estimated that there were 165 “no-go” zones in the country, and that 70 of them were located in KwaZulu-Natal. IEC, Report of the Independent Electoral Commission: The South African Elections of April 1994 (Johannesburg, October 1994), 53. See also Lodge, Consolidating Democracy, 6–7. 8. See William Clairborne, “Inkatha Party Scrambles to Mount Last- Minute Campaign in South Africa,” Washington Post, April 21, 1994. 9. See Gerhard Mare and Christina Hamilton, “The Inkatha Freedom Party,” in Election ’94 South Africa; Johnson and Schlemmer, NOTES 209

Launching Democracy in South Africa; Laurence Piper, “Democracy for a Bargain: The 1999 Election in KwaZulu-Natal,” Politikon 26, no. 2 (1999): 145–154. Tom Lodge noted that the IEC vehemently denied that the outcome of the 1994 election in KZN had been determined through bargaining, but he also noted that the discrep- ancies between the number of votes reported to have been cast on the provincial and national ballots from KZN shed doubt on the veracity of the IEC’s denial (Consolidating Democracy, 12). 10. Bill Keller, “Zulu King Breaks Ties to Buthelezi,” New York Times, September 21, 1994; and Paul Taylor, “The Politics of Brinkmanship: Buthelezi in Post-Apartheid South Africa,” Washington Post, March 22, 1995. 11. Donwald Pressly, “Democratise to Survive?” Cape Times, August 2, 1996. 12. For example, the IFP polled 69,735 votes in Durban, compared to the ANC’s 262,927 (Justice Malala, “IFP May Have Votes, but ANC Has Purse Strings,” Star (Johannesburg), July 5, 1996). 13. Comments of IFP MEC Peter Miller, quoted in Steve Mathewson, “ANC Steals March on IFP in KwaZulu Poll,” Saturday Star (Johannesburg), June 29, 1996. 14. For an extended discussion of political cleavages along class lines within KwaZulu-Natal, see Jung, Then I Was Black. 15. See “Time for a Major IFP Makeover,” Star (Johannesburg), July 24, 1996. 16. Malala, “IFP May Have Votes.” 17. “Buthelezi a Hit in Shabalala Territory,” Mercury (Durban/KwaZulu- Natal), April 21, 1997. 18. Quoted in Jovial Rantao, “Boost Provincial Powers, Urges Buthelezi,” Star (Johannesburg), June 18, 1997. 19. Malala, “IFP May Have Votes.” 20. See Sabelo Ndlangisa, “Ruling Party Unleashes Its Princess,” Sunday Times (South Africa), March 28, 2004, http://www.sundaytimes.co. za/2004/03/28/politics/politics03.asp (accessed on April 2, 2004). 21. Comments of IFP party caucus chief Ben Skosana, quoted in Jacobs, Calland, and Ngwema, “ Parliamentary Performance,” 12. 22. Jacobs, Calland, and Ngwema, “Parliamentary Performance,” 11. 23. In 1996, when trying to woo DP and PAC leaders into closer cooperation with the ANC by offering them cabinet positions, Mandela had reportedly referenced the Zimbabwean situation as a model South Africa should consider following (J. E. Spence, “Opposition in South Africa,” Government and Opposition 32, no. 4 [Autumn 1997]: 522–541, 537). 24. Mondli Makhanya, “IFP Chooses to Stay with GNU,” Star, June 5, 1996. 25. Justice Malala, “IFP Conference to Review Party’s Position on GNU,” Star (Johannesburg), July 4, 1996. 210 NOTES

26. Makhanya, “IFP Chooses to Stay.” 27. See Laurence Piper, “The Inkatha Freedom Party: Between the Impossible and the Ineffective,” in Electoral Politics in South Africa, 148–165. 28. For more on the internal power struggles, see Kaiser Nyatsumba, “Whichever Way You Slice It, the IFP Faces a Crisis,” Cape Argus, January 30, 1997; Nyatsumba, “Fear of Racial Split Might Be behind Cabinet Carrot,” Saturday Star (Johannesburg), February 1, 1997; and Nyatsumba, “Inkatha Leaders Move to Quell Party Crisis Fears,” Cape Argus, January 28, 1997. 29. See “Hardliners Tighten the Reins at IFP Indaba,” Cape Times, July 29, 1996. 30. “Buthelezi Lashes Out at IFP Mavericks and the ANC,” Star (Johannesburg), December 30, 1996. 31. Nyatsumba, “Whichever Way You Slice It,” and Mondli Makhanya, “In Buthelezi’s Kingdom, He Reigns On, Untrammeled and Unchallenged,” Star (Johannesburg), August 2, 1996. 32. Mare and Hamilton, “The Inkatha Freedom Party,” in Election ’99 South Africa, 104. 33. Interview by author with P. Smith. 34. Piper, “Democracy for a Bargain,” 149. 35. Reynolds, “The Results,” in Election ’99 South Africa. 36. Laurence Piper, “Inkatha Freedom Party.” 37. Ibid., 154–155 and author’s interview with Gavin Woods, IFP MP in Cape Town on May 7, 1999. 38. Author interviews with Inkosi B. N. Mdletshe, speaker of the KwaZulu-Natal Legislature in Durban on April 15, 1999; the latter in an interview with Dr. Rubnai, IFP researcher, at the IFP Regional Office in Durban on April 15, 1999 and the compiled reports of the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa for the 2004 election campaign, www.eisa.org.za/. 39. Piper, “Democracy for a Bargain,” 149, emphasis added. 40. Interview with Basil Douglas, Constance Zikalala (Head of the IFP Women’s Brigade, in the IFP Gauteng Regional Offices, Central Johannesburg, on March 10, 1999) and Finbar Dunne (IFP Gauteng treasurer, in the IFP Gauteng Regional Offices, Central Johannesburg, on March 10, 1999); comments of IFP secretary general in the Northern Cape, Margaret Arnolds (reported in Tara Turkington, “Flocking to the IFP in Northern Cape,” Sunday World, March 28, 1999). 41. Interview with Gavin Woods, IFP MP in Cape Town on May 7, 1999. Woods noted that the Western Cape Party barely had any support on the ground and practically no funding to run the provincial campaign. 42. Interview with A. Smith. 43. Interview with Basil Douglas, Gauteng IFP Campaign Manager, in Johannesburg on March 10, 1999. NOTES 211

44. Comments in Buthelezi’s speech at the launch of the IFP’s national election in Soweto. Information based both on personal observation and Primarashni Pillay, “IFP, AZAPO Launch Poll Campaign,” Business Day (Johannesburg), March 15, 1999. 45. For an example of this, see Ilaine Harper, “IFP Slams Third Term for Mbeki,” News24, February 9, 2004, http://www.news24.com/ News24/South_Africa/Politics/0,2–7-12_1481126,00.html (accessed on February 10, 2004). 46. These were the main themes of Buthelezi’s address to the Freedom Day rally held at Kings Park stadium in Durban on April 27, 1999. Information from both personal observation as well as Jovial Rantao, “Recognise KwaZulu-Natal as a Monarchy—Buthelezi,” Star (Johannesburg), April 28, 1999. 47. “ANC ‘Disastrous’ for Chiefs,” News24, April 10, 2004, http:// www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/Elections2004/0,2–7- 1557_1510721,00.html (accessed on April 13, 2004). 48. Piper, “Democracy for a Bargain,” 146–147. 49. Piper, “Inkatha Freedom Party,” 149. 50. Quoted in Piper, “Inkatha Freedom Party,” 154.

9 Conclusion: The Contingent Nature of Political Mobilization 1. Anthony Butler, “South Africa’s Political Futures: The Positive and Negative Implications of One-Party Dominance,” paper presented at the Electoral institute of Southern Africa, EISA Democracy Seminar Series, August 7, 2002. 2. Hermann Giliomee and Charles Simkins, eds., The Awkward Embrace: One Party-Domination and Democracy (Cape Town: Tafelberg, 1999). 3. Alence, “South Africa after Apartheid.” 4. See, for example, “Zuma Faces ANC Rebellion,” Electronic Mail and Guardian (South Africa), September 26, 2008, http://www.mg. co.za/article/2008–09-26-zuma-faces-anc-rebellion (accessed on September 26, 2008). 5. At the time of Mbeki’s resignation, his allies launched a Web site called “Friends of Democracy,” to protest the abuse of power by the ANC and gauge the mood of South Africans on the issue. http:// www.friendsofdemocracy.co.za/ (accessed September 30, 2008). 6. For the personal side of the rivalry, see Mark Gevisser’s biography of Mbeki, Thabo Mbeki: The Dream Deferred (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 2007). 7. See Katharine McKenzie, “The ANC’s Polokwane Conference: Dangers and Opportunities,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (December 10, 2007), http://forums.csis.org/africa/?p=77 212 NOTES

(accessed on January 19, 2007), for a preconference analysis of these factions. See also Ruaridh Nicoll, “Fight Begins for the Soul of SA,” Mail and Guardian (South Africa), November 25, 2007, http:// www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=325916&area=/breaking_ news/breaking_news__national/ (accessed on November 25, 2007). 8. Such changes were in fact proposed in 2003 after a lengthy government-initiated inquiry into electoral reform, but the ANC promptly rejected the proposals. See An Electoral System for South Africa: Various Options, Report of the Electoral Task Team, January 2003, at the Web site of the IEC: www.elections.org.za/papers/27/ETT. pdf (accessed on September 30, 2008). 9. The informal settlements in Hout Bay and Khayelitsha, which had experienced devastating fires just months ahead of the elections, are good examples of areas on which the IEC kept close watch for electoral violence by those dispossessed when their identity documents were destroyed. 10. Author interview with Courtney Sampson, provincial electoral officer of the Western Cape, on April 8, 2004. 11. Piombo, “The Results of Election 2004,” 253. These figures were calculated from IEC registration and turnout figures, and compared with census estimates of the population. 12. Michael Bratton, “Second Elections in Africa,” Journal of Democracy 9, no. 3 (1998): 51–66. 13. Pippa Norris, Democratic Phoenix: Reinventing Political Activism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002). Norris found that that most countries at South Africa’s level of economic development and length of democratic rule tend to demonstrate turnout rates aver- aging in the 70 percent range of VAP. This is for all democracies; dominant party democracies, a category into which South Africa undeniably fits, record average turnout rates of 57 percent. 14. This in itself is not necessarily a new insight, but bears repeating, given the continued insistence in many writings that the politicization of ethnic identities is inevitable within a PR electoral system. The reverse of the South African case can be found in India, where a multitude of strong states have worked against the consolidation pressures of a first-past-the-post electoral system to generate a political party system with a multitude of political parties, both ethnic and nonethnic, many of which exist on a solely regional basis. 15. Bodine, “Reaping the Whirlwind.” 16. See Karen Guttieri and Jessica Piombo, eds., Interim Governments: Institutional Bridges to Peace and Democracy? (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2007). 17. Cf. Carrie L. Manning, “Interim Governments and the Construction of Political Elites,” and Michael S. Malley, “Inchoate Opposition, Divided Incumbents,” both chapters in Interim Governments: Institutional Bridges to Peace and Democracy? NOTES 213

18. Devon Curtis’ work on Burundi and the DRC offers great insight into the pros and cons of including such parties in peace agreements. Devon Curtis, “Transitional Governance in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo,” in Interim Governments: Institutional Bridges to Peace and Democracy? 19. See the collected works in Thomas Bruneau and Harold Trinkunas, eds., Global Politics of Defense Reform (New York and Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008). 20. Mark Shaw, “Crime, Police and Public in Transitional Societies,” Transformation 49 (2002): 1–24. Bibliography

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Interviews Conducted by the Author General Tom Lodge. Director, Electoral Institute of South Africa; Professor of Political Studies at Wits University (on leave at time of interview), March 2, 1999, Eisa Office, Braamfontein, Gauteng. Andrew Reynolds. Associate Professor, University of Notre Dame, Cape Town, April 1999 (multiple interviews). Courtney Sampson. Provincial Electoral Officer of the Western Cape, on 8 April, 2004, at the IEC Provincial Office in Cape Town, Western Cape.

New National Party Johan Kilian. National Campaign Manager and Chairman of the Gauteng NNP, on March 2, 1999 at the NNP National Head Offices, Hornkloof, Pretoria. Julie Kilian. National Media Director, on March 20, 1999 at the NNP Federal Congress at the Technikon SA Conference Center, Johannesburg. 244 BIBLIOGRAPHY

Julie Killian. National Media Director, on March 29, 1999 at the NNP National Head Offices, Hornkloof, Pretoria. Johan Durante. Pretoria Region Manager, at NNP Provincial Offices, Hornkloof, Pretoria, March 29, 1999. Edwin Conroy. Gauteng Provincial Manager and Executive Secretary of the Provincial Party, on March 31, 1999 at the NNP National Headquarters, Hornkloof, Pretoria. Chris van der Berg. Chief Secretary of the Provincial NNP in KZN, on April 5,1999 at the NNP Provincial Offices, East Durban. Tommy Immelman. CEO and Secretary in Chief of the NNP in the Western Cape, on May 5, 1999 at the NNP Provincial Headquarters building on Berg Street, Cape Town. Councillor Khan. Manager of the Heideveld Branch, on May 11, 1999 at the NNP building on Berg Street, Cape Town. Freddie Abrahams. Central Region Organizer for Tygerberg Region (Regional Secretary for Central and Southern Cape, including Athlone, Mannenberg, Overport, Gugulethu and Claremont) on May 11, 1999 at the NNP Headquarters building on Berg Street, Cape Town. Freddie Abrahams. May 18, 1999 in the town of Atlantis at a municipal by-election. Lizo Bengu. District Chairman in Khayelitsha, on May 11, 1999 at the NNP Headquarters building on Berg Street, Cape Town. Lawrence Solomon. Regional Organizer in the Western Cape, on June 10, 1997 at the NNP Headquarters building on Berg Street, Cape Town.

Inkatha Freedom Party John Aulsebrook. Chair of the Durban Metro Election Committee, Chairman of the Premier’s Committee in the KZN Legislature. Friday, April 23, 1999, Durban Club Headquarters. Basil Douglas. Gauteng IFP Campaign Manager, IFP Gauteng Regional Offices, Central Johannesburg, March 10, 1999. Dr. Rubnai. IFP Researcher. Thursday, April 15, 1999. IFP Regional Office in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. Finbar Dunne. IFP Gauteng Treasurer. IFP Gauteng Regional Offices, Central Johannesburg, March 10, 1999. Inkosi B. N. Mdletshe. Speaker of the KZN legislature, Thursday, April 15, 1999. National Office, Durban Club Place, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. Johan Ngcobo. National Campaign Director; Thursday, April 15, 1999. National Office, Durban Club Place, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. Andrew Smith. Communications Director. Durban Central Offices, Durban Club Building, April 21, 1999. Peter Smith. IFP Communications Directorate, Assistant Campaign Manager and Deputy National Spokesperson, Durban Club Offices, National Headquarters, April 19, 1999. BIBLIOGRAPHY 245

Gavin Woods. IFP MP. Parliament, Cape Town, May 7, 1999. Constance Zikalala. Head of IFP Women’s Brigade, IFP Gauteng Regional Offices, Central Johannesburg, March 10, 1999.

Democratic Party Manny de Freitas. DP Organizer for Gauteng South. Telephone interview, February 26, 1999. Manny de Freitas. DP Regional Office in Mountainview, Johannesburg, March 9, 1999. Danie Erasmus. DP Pretoria Campaign Coordinator, North Gauteng, April 1, 1999. Gareth Morgan. DP KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Media Officer; Westville, KwaZulu-Natal, April 20, 1999. Omie Singh. Manager of the Phoenix Branch of the DP. Westville, KwaZulu- Natal, April 22, 1999. Lynn Ploos van Amstel. DP Regional Chair for KwaZulu-Natal Coastal Region. Westville, KwaZulu-Natal, April 22, 1999. Belinda Barrett. DP Head of Durban Central Election Office; Berea, KwaZulu-Natal, April 26, 1999. Roger Burrows. DP MP, Head of Provincial DP. Berea, KwaZulu-Natal, April 28, 1999. James Selfe. Member of DP National Executive and Campaign Coordinator for the Western Cape. Cape Town, May 8, 1999. Index

Entries in italics refer to charts and tables. affirmative action, 53, 86, 113, 117, federal system resisted by, 43–44 123, 137 first decade of democracy and, 1 African Christian Democratic Party GNU and, 72–73, 106–8, (ACDP), 45, 60, 67, 75–76, 172 152–53, 201 n3 Africanism, 89 Harare Declaration and, 191 n2 African National Congress (ANC), IFP and, 143–54, 158 79–101, 165 Interim Constitution and, 127 background of, under apartheid, internal tensions and, 68–70, 81, 16, 64, 79–82 84, 93–94, 169–71, 175, banning and exile of, 80–81, 145 193 n22, 200 n52, 211 n5 ban on, lifted, 81, 105, 174 KZN and, 150, 153, 160, 161, black empowerment and, 69 209 n10 centralized power and, 46, 70, National Conference (52nd, 84–85 Polokwane, 2007), 170–71 constitutional negotiations and, National Executive Committee 38–40, 106, 191 n2 (NEC), 84, 93–94, 170–71 crime and, 118 NNP/NP and, 72–73, 103–8, dominant position of, and 110–11, 114, 116–20, 122–23, influence on party politics, 18, 127, 140, 187 n39 33, 64–66, 68–71, 77, 82, 169 opinion polls on, 200 n38 DP/DA and, 74, 114, 125, opposition parties challenge, at 127–30, 134, 135–41, 209 n23 national level, 18, 60–61 elections of 1994 and, 81–82, 91, PAC and, 209 n23 146–47 party discipline and, 46, 71, 100 elections of 1999 and, 95–99, party system vibrancy stifled by 116, 150 dominance of, 169, 171, elections of 2004 and, 63–64, 173–74 95–98, 150 patronage and, 85–87 electoral strength of, 16, 47, 101 political discourse of, and black- ethnic divisions within, not white vs. ethnic differences, exploited by opposition, 34 70–71, 100–1 248 INDEX

African National Congress Balkans, 13 (ANC)—Continued ballot structure, 188 n4 political discourse of, and critics, see also dual ballot 92–95 Bantu language family, 49–50 political discourse of, and Basic Conditions of Employment electoral periods, 95–100 Act (No. 74, 1997), 86 political discourse of, and basic income grant, 140 support base, 89–92 Black Consciousness Movement provincial governments and, (BCM), 49, 80–81, 145 43–44, 84, 172 black political movements, banned SACP and COSATU and, 70, (1960s), 145 82, 100, 169 blacks (Africans) strategic alliances and, 70, 82, ANC and, 16, 39, 69–70, 85–87, 85, 87–89 90–93, 95 UDF and, 68, 81, 87–88 cleavage, from whites, 70, 90 Zulus and, 143–44, 147–49 defined, 47–50, 48, 54–56, 55 Africans, see blacks DP/DA and, 66, 74, 125–26, Afrikaans language, 51–52, 56, 57, 129, 134, 136, 138–40, 142 109–11, 118, 132–33, 140, empowerment programs and, 193 n33 57–59, 69, 86, 97 Coloured speaking, 52 ethnic divisions within, 50, 87, Afrikaner EenheidsBeweging 91–92 Party, 193 n20 IFP and, 16, 156 Afrikaners, 165 middle and upper classes within, civil service and, 192 n10 58–59, 58, 69, 85–87, 95, 99 defined, 48, 48, 50–51, 193 n32 NP/NNP and, 72, 105, 108, DP/DA and, 67, 74, 111, 109, 110–11, 112, 118, 120, 125–27, 131–33, 138, 140, 142 123, 166, 203 n22 IFP and, 162, 167 opposition parties and, 172 NP/NNP and, 16, 39, 72, 74, as proportion of population, 49 103–4, 106, 108–11, 116, 121, see also Zulus; and other specific 123, 166, 203 n20 ethnic and tribal groups PFP and Independent Party and, 126 Buthelezi, Prince Mangosuthu G., antiapartheid (liberation) 37, 75, 140, 144–50, 152–58, movement, 64, 80–81, 91–92, 160, 162, 211nn44,46 98–99, 104–5, 127–28, census, 17, 48, 58, 136, 193 n25 145, 165 centralization of power see also apartheid (nationalized power, antidefection clause, 40, 106, nationalizing pressure of 110–11, 114, 122, 157 institutions), 3, 10, 33–34 apartheid, 2, 41, 50, 64, 69, 82, ANC and, 43–44, 69–71, 87–88, 104–5, 126, 145 83–84 race groups established by, DP/DA and, 127, 133–38, 47–48, 52 141, 166 Azanian People’s Organization IFP and, 143–44, 149, 152–53, (AZAPO), 67, 193 n20 155–56, 158–61 INDEX 249

nationwide vs. ethnic concurrent powers, of national and mobilization incentives and, provincial tiers, 41, 84, 192 n7 17–18, 21, 46, 163–66, Congress Alliance (ANC-SACP, 177–78, 182 under apartheid), 80–81 NNP and, 116, 121, 122–23 Congress of South African Trade plurality-based system and, 24 Unions (COSATU), 70, 140, PR system and, 24, 27, 44–47 169, 198 n14, 199 n33 regional or provincial opposition ANC alliance with, 80–82, parties and, 172 87–88, 96, 98, 169, 171 regional and tribal divisions Congress of the People (COPE), prevented by, 39 170–71, 200 n52 conservatism, 18, 67, 72–74, 87–88, Christian-Democratic principles, 98, 72, 103–8, 111–14, 121, 72–73, 104, 106–8, 166 125, 136, 143–44, 149, 151, civil service, 64, 69, 192 n10 153–54, 156–57, 161–62, 167, provincial, 42, 150 203 n2 civil society, 87 Conservative Party, 131 class identity, 4, 17, 47–48, 90, Constituent Assembly (CA, 141, 149 1994–96), 38–40, 82, 191 n1 race and, 52–59, 58, 76–77 constitutional engineering, 19, 22, closed-list proportional 33, 35 representation (PR) system, Constitution of 1996, 39–41, 44, 39–40, 44–47, 69–70, 83–84, 72, 79, 82, 103–8, 111–14, 111, 113–14, 121 121, 129, 154, 157, 201 n3 “Coalition for Change” (DA-IFP constructivist theories, 6, 9, 12 alliance, 2004), 138–39, 157 Convention for a Democratic coalitions, 11, 32 South Africa (CODESA) electoral rules and tier of power I and II, 127 and, 14, 21–23 corruption, 157, 170, 175, NNP and, 72–73 193 n22 provincial, 66–67 crime, 5, 94, 99, 117–19, 123, see also specific parties and 130, 157, 170, 194 n41 coalitions Cronin, Jeremy, 98–99 colonialism, 8–9, 79, 92 crosscutting cleavages, 14, 28, Coloureds, 193–94 n33 38, 121 ANC and, 82, 86, 90–91, 97, 114, 120 death penalty, 118, 161 debate over, as “race,” 52 de Beer, Zach, 126–29 defined, 48, 48, 52, 54–56, 55 decentralized systems, 10, 21, DP/DA and, 66–67, 74, 178–79 76, 125, 128–29, 133, defections, 40, 73, 75, 106, 136–40 110–14, 122, 132, 157, IFP and, 156 197 n18 NP and, 72, 105–6, 108, 110, de Klerk, F.W., 105, 107–8, 110, 112–14, 116, 120, 123, 128, 132, 201 n7 203 n20 de Lille, Patricia, 75, 139 250 INDEX democracy ethnic violence and, 3, 11–15, 19, ethnic conflict and, 182 164, 175 stability of, 101, 173–75 devolution of power, 26, 39, 43, Democratic Party/Democratic 146, 148, 157 Alliance (DP/DA), 116, dual ballot, 40, 44–45 125–42 aggressive opposition by, and Eastern Cape province, 43, 84, 132, expansion of support, 73–74, 150, 155, 158, 169, 193 n22 129–37 economic issues, 6, 69, 99, 103, ANC and, 74, 81, 94–95, 98–99, 117–19, 121, 137–38, 140, 133–38, 209 n23 156–57, 170–71, 194 n41 background of, under apartheid, education, 53, 58, 69, 117, 123, 126–28 137, 157 becomes main opposition party, elections 66–67, 141–42 active construction of ethnicity “black vote” and, 66–67 and, 11 campaign rhetoric of, 136–37, by-elections, defined, 203 n25 139–41 campaigns, fieldwork and data class-based rhetoric of, 55, 59 collection, 17 constitutional negotiations and, delinking provincial from 40, 44 national, 172 elections of 1994 and, 81–82, elite strategy choices and 91, 146–47 coalitions required to win, elections of 1999 and, 64, 125, 13–14 130–37, 187 n39, 207 n30 local, 1, 64, 203 n25 elections of 2004 and, 64, 73, national, 1 125–26, 137–42, 187 n39 party-centered, 15 IFP and, 138–39, 159 registration fees for, 46 minorities and, 74, 76 stability and apathy and, 173–74 mobilization strategy of, and see also racial census theory and realignment of base, 71, specific elections and political 73–74, 134–36, 138–39, parties 165–66 elections, local NP/NNP and, 72, 74, 107, (1994), 148 111–12, 114–15, 120, 122, (1995–96), 64, 131, 143, 148, 132, 187 n39 150, 152–54, 157 provinces and, 160 (1997–98), 112, 131–32 race-class divisions and, 18, 34 (2000), 41, 64, 74, 187 n39 regional base and, 144, 172 (2001), 205 renamed DA, 66–67, 125, (2005), 64 138, 205 n1 elections, national and provincial shifts to ideological multiethnic (1948), 51 tier, 67 (1994), 16–17, 38, 40, 45–46, voter registration and, 204 n33 63–64, 72–73, 79–80, democratization 194 n42, 197 n4; ANC and, defined, 4–5 81–82, 91, 146–47; DP/DA INDEX 251

and, 125, 127–28; IFP and, South African, defined, 17, 38, 82, 146–47; KZN and, 47–50, 48 208–9 n9; NP and, 66, ethnic homelands, 13 72, 105, 132; voter turnout ethnic identity and, 174 assumption of primacy of, 5–6, (1999), 18, 37–38, 45–46, 10–11 63–64, 70–75; ANC and, building blocks of, 179–80 95–99, 116, 150; DP/DA and, construction of, 3–4, 64, 125, 130–37, 187 n39, 7–14, 176 207 n30; IFP and, 7–38, 144, latency of, without political 147, 150, 153–60; NNP and, activation, 13, 11, 21, 163–65, 72, 104, 111–18, 122–23, 132, 175, 177, 187 n37 166, 187 n39; UDM and, 169; racial group vs., 47, 54–56 voter turnout and, 174 saliency of, vs. other identities, (2004), 16–18, 63–64, 70, 29–30 72–75; ANC and, 63–64, ethnic mobilization (ethnopolitical 95–98, 150; DP/DA and, 64, divides), 11–17 73, 125–26, 137–42, 187 n39; disincentives for, and stability IFP and, 150, 153–59; NNP with little competition, and, 64, 104, 114–15, 119–20, 174–75 122–23, 187 n39, 196 n14; distribution of power and social voter turnout and, 173–74 demographics and, 21, 25–30, (2009), 200 n52 69, 71, 177–79 electoral coalitions, 11, 30–31 electoral rules and, 23–25 electoral payoffs, 16, 32 institutional role in, 15–16, electoral rules or system, 21–25, 28, 164, 175 33–34, 40, 172, 174–76, 180, mobilization strategy incentive 188 n4 matrix and, 165, 177–79, 177 centralization of power and, political strategy and, 3, 5, 44–47, 83–84, 164, 191 n30 12, 32 electoral violence, 67–68, 148 political transition and, 1–7, 11, Employment Equity Act (No. 55, 179–82 1998), 86, 117 previous history of, 14 English ethnic group, 165 racial mobilization vs., 76–77 defined, 48, 48, 50–52 small group, and national system, DP/DA and, 16, 67, 74, 125–28, 33–34 132, 140–42 South African need for large-scale ethnic conflict and violence, 5–6, representation discourages, 11–15, 64, 181–82 15–16, 47, 59–60, 60–61, ethnic groups 64, 67–69, 85, 89–101, 125, debate over protection of, vs. 139, 141–42, 159, 161–64, forced cooperation, 189 n8 167–68, 171 small size of, and nationalized sustained, as first step in ethnic power, 3, 165 conflict, 14 small size of, in South Africa, 17, ethnofederal regions, 179 47, 57, 59–60, 71 executive branch, 39–40, 64 252 INDEX

Federal Alliance, 193 n20 Herstigte Nasionale Party (HNP), 112 federal system HIV/AIDS, 140, 157, 170, 193 n23 ANC and, 43, 83 Holomisa, Bantu, 46, 93–94, closed-list PR system and, 83 193 n22 distribution of power and ethnic Home Affairs Ministry, 162 mobilization in, 26–27 homelands, 104, 145, 165 electoral system and, 191 n30 hostel areas, 50, 147, 174 IFP and, 146, 149–51, 153–54, House of Assembly (Nationalist 157, 161 rule), 126, 127 NP and, 39–40, 103, 107 prevention of ethnic conflict and, 35 identity documents, 117, 160, PRP and, 126 204 n33 South African tiers of power and, immigration policy, 160 17, 40–44 Independent Democrats (ID) party, unitary systems vs., 33 75, 139, 172 first-past-the-post (FPTP) plurality Independent Electoral Commission systems, 24–25, 128, 212 n14 (IEC), 44, 46, 73, 82, 146, floor crossing, 40, 75, 83, 172, 173, 209 n9, 212 n9 196–97nn15,18, 205 n1 Independent Party, 126 Freedom Charter, 39, 80, 90, 145 India, 10, 31, 212 n14 Freedom Front (FF), 60, 115, 131, Indian National Congress (India), 80 193 n20 Indian racial group, 39 Freedom Front Plus (FF+), 67 ANC and, 82, 86, 90, 91, 97 Free State province, 84, 107, 170 class divide within, 52–53 fringe group mobilization, 22 defined, 48–49, 48, 52–56, 55 DP/DA and, 66–67, 74, 76, 125, Gauteng province, 97–99, 107, 128–29, 133–34, 136–40 111–12, 115–16, 122, 131–33, IFP and, 156 135–36, 147–48, 155, 159, NP and, 105, 116 166, 172 individual vs. group rights, 39–40 Gauteng Youth Action, 203 n22 Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), 16, globalization, 6, 70 125, 143–62, 165 Government of National Unity ANC and, 145, 147, 151–53 (GNU), 38, 72–73, 105–8, attempt to move beyond ethnic to 147, 151–53, 201 n3 national support base, 18, 34, group size factor, 14, 30, 47, 57 67, 74–75, 143 Growth, Employment, and background of, 16, 144–47 Redistribution (GEAR) campaign rhetoric of, 157–59 program, 88, 97, 151, 169 constitutional negotiations and, 40, 44 Hani, Chris, 174 crime and, 118 Harare Declaration (1988), 38–39, DP/DA and, 138–40 191 n2 elections of 1994 and, 82, health issues, 157 146–47, 209nn12,21 see also HIV/AIDS elections of 1999 and, 37–38, Health Ministry, 130 144, 147, 150, 153–60 INDEX 253

elections of 2004 and, 150, National Assembly elections 153–59 (2005), 33 ethnic origins of, 16 tribal divisions, 179 federal council, 152–53 Iraq Study Group, 178–79 federal system and, 83 isiNdebele language, 49 GNU and, 38, 151–53, 201 n3 isiXhosa language, 49 internal divisions and, 147, 153–55 isiZulu language, 49 mobilization strategies and national power issue, 153–56, job creation, 117–18, 157, 170 159, 166–67 Johannesburg, 50, 128, 129, 131 provincial power and problems of, Jordan, Pallo, 90–92 147–51 as regional force, 172 Kenya, 1, 170 repositioning attempts of, 147, Khoi, 48–49, 52 149–53 Khoi-San or “bushmen,” 49 UDF and, 145 kinship, 7 Inkatha kaZulu (precursor Kriel, Hernus, 108, 113, 201 n7 to IFP), 144 KwaZulu homeland, 145–46 Inkatha Yenkululeko Yesizwe KwaZulu-Natal province (KZN), (National Cultural Liberation 42, 63, 66–67, 74–75, 82, 96, Movement), 145 100, 116, 119–20, 133–34, Institute for Democracy in South 140, 143–61, 166–67, 173, Africa (Idasa), 130, 200 n38 197 n4, 201 n4, 208 n7, 209 n9 institutional factors (political creation of, in 1994, 147 institutions), 9–10, 12, 16, IFP premiers swapped, 153–54 110–11, 121–22, 125–26, powerlessness of provincial 140–41, 175 government in, 149–53 ANC shapes, to reduce ethnic mobilization, 69–70, 79, labor, 86, 140 82–85, 100 see also trade unions defined, 21–27 land reform, 97 interaction of, with social language groups, 47, 53 cleavages, and incentives, 3, see also specific languages 6–7, 13–15, 18, 23, 31–35, language policy, 123 60–61, 155, 164–66, 175–82 Leadership (magazine), 131 see also specific institutions and left, 70, 82, 87–89, 101, 198 n17 political actors legislation institutionalist theory, 10 ANC and drafting of, 86, 100 institutional vacuum, 5, 180–81 IFP and GNU and, 152 instrumentalists, 7–8, 9 legislative assemblies, Interim Constitution, 38, 42, 127, proportionality and, 40 201 n3 legislative fragmentation, 26 Iraq, 24–25, 32–33, 35, 164, Lekota, Patrick “Terror” (Mosiuoa), 178–79, 191 n29 84, 170 Interim Governing Council Leon, Tony, 74, 94, 129–30, (IGC), 32 132–33, 135, 140, 208 n46 254 INDEX

Lesotho, 50 minority rights issue, 103, 118 liberals, 73, 98, 106, 110, 113–14, minority voters, South African 125–28, 130–33, 141, DP/DA and, 74, 125–26, 161, 165 133–34, 136–42, 165, 166 Limpopo province, 170 as multiracial opposition, 76–77 local governments, 40–41, NP/NNP and, 72, 116–19, 172–73 121–23 localized power, 3, 15, 21–22, mixed ancestry. 48 26–27, 41, 46, 83, 117, 179 see also Coloureds lower classes, 52, 58, 58 Mnisi, William, 132 see also poor; working class mobilization strategies, 165 broader lessons for, 175–82 Magashule, Ace, 170 incentive matrix and, 165, majoritarian constituency model, 177–79, 177 PR model vs., 24–25 institutional and societal majoritarian democracy, 85 incentives and, 18 Malan, Wynand, 126 menu of, and social fabric, Malatsi, David, 109, 202 n14 34–35 Malawi, 2, 29–30 shaping, 21–35 Mandela, Nelson, 80–81, 93–94, see also ethnic mobilization 97–98, 128, 146, 152, 174, Morkel, Gerald, 113 209 n23 Morogoro Conference (1969), 90 Mandela, Winnie Madikizela-, Motlanthe, Kgalema, 169 130, 170 Motshega, Mathole, 83, 199 n33 Marais, Peter, 113–14, 202 n11 Movement for Multiparty marginal groups, 25 Democracy (MMD, Zambia), 2 Mass Democratic Movement Mozambique, 178 (MDM), 81 Mpumalanga province, 155, 159 Mavuso, John, 109, 202 n14 Mtshali, Lionel, 153–54 Mbeki, Thabo, 70, 97–99, 139, Mugabe, Robert, 118 152, 157, 169, 171, 199 n37, multiethnic strategy, 72, 137, 200nn47,49, 211 n5 156, 164 Mbulawa, Dr. Bukelwa, 132 multipartyism, 189 n5 McKenzie, Patrick, 109, 113, multiracial strategy, 76, 108, 125, 202 n14 133, 140–42, 156, 164 media, 93, 129–31 “muscular liberalism,” 130 median voter, 22 Muslims, 53 Meyer, Roelf, 106, 108–10, 113, 132, 201 n7, 203 n22 Naidoo, Sathie, 202 n16 Meyer, Tobie, 202 n16 Namibia, 2 middle class, 52–53, 58, 58 Congress of Democrats (CoD), 170 military, 13 Nasionale Pers (National Papers), 111 Miller, Peter, 42 Natal, 146 minimum thresholds for see also KwaZulu-Natal province representation, 22 Natal Workshop for African Minority Front (MF), 67, 193 n20 Advancement (NWAA), 145 INDEX 255

“nation,” vs. “ethnic group,” 4 decline of, 67, 71–73, 111–12, National Assembly (NA, lower 115–16, 121–23, 159, 167, house), 75, 82, 105, 121, 187 n39 128–30, 133, 135, 143–44, DP/DA and, 67, 127–28, 152, 159 130–34, 139–40, 187 n39 ANC dominance of, 63–66, 171 elections of 1994 and, 66, 72, antidefection clause and, 110 105, 132 interim constitution and, elections of 1999 and, 72, 104, 201 n3 111–18, 122–23, 132, 166, Joint Standing Committee on 187 n39 Public Accounts, 129 elections of 2004 and, 64, 104, provincial tax laws and, 43 114–15, 119–20, 122–23, need for many seats to influence 187 n39, 196 n14 policy in, 4, 46–47, 60, 71–72, electoral strategies of, 115–16, 76, 89 121–23 opposition seats in (1994–2004), ethnicity and, 29 66–68 Federal Congress, 109 seats allocation method and, Federal Executive, 109–10 44–45, 68 federal system and, 83 national cabinet, 75, 100, 105, GNU and, 38, 73, 106–8, 107–8, 146, 153–54, 160, 151–52, 201 n3 201 n3, 209 n23 IFP and, 146 National Council of Provinces Interim Constitution and, 127 (NCOP), 41, 84, 100, 116–17, internal divisions in, 109–11, 121, 132, 160 113–15, 153, 203 n22 National Democratic Movement, 126 minority vote and, 76 nationalism, 9–10, 13 mobilization strategy shifts and, National Party / New National 72–73, 116–17, 166 Party (NNP/NP), 103–23, name changed to NNP, 107–8, 125, 165 111–12, 201 n1, 202–3 n20 ANC and, 73, 94–95, 98, 127, national vs. regional strategy of, 130–31, 187 n39 107, 115–16, 119–21 antidefection clause and, 110 parliamentary effectiveness of, apartheid rule of, 38, 79, 130–31 126, 145 provinces and, 144, 160 attempt to shift to ideological, race-class overlap and, 18, 34 multiethnic tier, 67, 72–73, voter registration and, 204 n33 103–5, 107 Western Cape and, 73, 82 background of, 16, 104–5 national tier, 25–27, 40–41, 59–61, campaign rhetoric of, 117–21 67, 83–84, 163–64, 167, changing strategies of, 72–73, 171–72 108–9 see also centralization of power; constitutional negotiations and, and specific legislative bodies 39–40 “national-to-national” lists, 44 debate over future of, Native Affairs Bill (1920), 144 postapartheid, 103–9 Ndebele group, 48, 49 256 INDEX neoliberal economics, 88, 134 ethnic entrepreneurs, Ngonyama, Smuts, 93, 199 n26 counteracted by close-list PR Ngubane, Ben, 154 system, 83 Nguni language family, 49–50 formation of, 28–31 Nigeria, 1, 2, 27, 60, 178–79, 181 fragmentation of, 23, 25, 45–46 “no-go” zones, 146, 149, 208 n7 multiethnic mobilization by, nongovernmental sector, 64 encouraged by nationalized nonviolence, 80 power, 164 Northern Cape province, 43, 49, need for winning electoral 72, 84, 107, 116, 199 n33 coalitions, 3–4, 21, 46–47 Northern Sotho language, 49–50 power distribution and shape of, Northwest province, 67 26–27 role of, in ethnic mobilization Operation Vula, 81 and identity choice, 15, 175–76 overseas voters rights’, 117 South African election results by (1994–2004), 65 Pan Africanist Congress (PAC), 60, stability of, at price of democratic 67, 71, 75, 80, 88, 118, 127, atrophy, 169–75 139, 174, 209 n23 see also specific parties parliamentary seats, allocation of, 31 political party-centric system, 15, parliamentary systems, 27 163–64, 173 patronage, 8–9, 103, 149–51, political violence, 146, 149, 160, 169 164, 174 Pedi group, 48, 49 poor, 53, 79, 85–88, 90, 140, 173 permissive electoral system, 24, Port Elizabeth, 132 32–33, 68, 121–22, 163, 165 Portuguese ethnic group, SA, 51 personalized politics, 83 postcommunist states, 10–11, 13 Pietermaritzburg, 148 postconflict transitional regimes, 181 Platteland, 115, 131 poverty, 69, 157 pluralism, 156 power, distribution or locus of, 3, plurality systems, small group 19, 21–22, 25–27, 32–34, representation and, 25 163, 176–79, 177 political identities, 12–13 see also centralization of power; political openings, defined, 4 devolution of power political parties power sharing, 112, 181, 201 n3 ANC dominance and influence presidency, power of, 71 on, 68–71, 83 Presidential Review Commission barriers to entry and, 23, 46 (PRC), 43–44 candidate list selection by, 44 presidential systems, 27 decisions of, about what groups “previously advantaged” vs. to mobilize, 31–32 “previously disadvantaged,” 49, discipline and unity within, 46, 90, 99, 137 71, 83–84 primordialists, 7, 9, 29, 30, 57 electoral systems and number of, private property, 118 188 n4 privatization, 87, 151 elite strategy choices and, 12–13 Progressive Federal Party (PFP), 126 INDEX 257

Progressive Party, 126–27 DP/DA and, 136–37, 139, 141 proportional representation (PR) IFP and, 156 electoral system, 23–25, 39, NP/NNP and, 121 60, 67–70, 188 n4, 212 n14 social identity and, 17, 54–57, centralization of power and, 27, 55, 76 44–47, 164 South African groups defined, DP/DA and, 128, 142 38, 47–48, 48, 193 n24 IFP and, 159 see also blacks (Africans); locus of power and social Coloureds; Indians; whites; landscape and, 176–77 and specific language and multipartyism and, 25, 76, ethnic groups 189 n5 race-class overlap, 18, 38, NP/NNP and, 40, 123 56–59, 58, 76–77, 121, see also closed-list proportional 137, 141 representation system racial census theory, 57, 142, 166, provinces (provincial tier) 194 n42 allocation of seats to National racial mobilization, 2, 57–59, 67, Assembly and, 44–45 76–77, 163, 172 ANC dominance of, 63–66 “two nation” rhetoric and, budget constraints on, 42–43, 70–71, 98–99 149–51 racism, 10, 56–57, 136–37 ceding more power to, to Rainbow Nation, 89–90 strengthen opposition parties, Ramaphosa, Cyril, 83, 171 172–73 Ramathlodi, Ngoako, 170 debate over scraping entirely, Reconstruction and Development 43–44 Programme (RDP), 81, elections and, 1 88, 169 ethnic homogeneity of, 172 regional tier of government, 21, legislatures, 44, 67, 72, 110 26–27, 47, 84, 133, 143–44, mobilization in, little reward for, 46 148, 151, 167, 169, power of, 33, 40–43, 84–85, 172–73, 178 112, 143–44, 149, 147–51, see also provinces 157, 160, 192 n7, 193 n23 religious identities, 10, 17, 26, 38, premiers, 66, 84, 160, 195 n3 47, 53–55, 54, 107, 110 support base and, 154 rural areas, 50, 56, 75, 87, 96, as unattractive arenas for political 115, 121, 132, 144, 146–50, contest, 46–47 156–59, 161, 167 see also specific elections, political Rwanda, 101 parties, and provinces Provincial Revenue Taxation Act San, 48–49, 52 (2001), 192 n12 Sarafina II scandal, 130 “provincial-to-national” seats, Sexwale, Tokyo, 83, 171 44–45 Shell House shootings, 130, 146 Shilowa, Mbhazima (Sam), 98, 170, race 200 n44, 212 n10 defined, 4, 9–11 Sigcau, Stella, 94, 193 n22 258 INDEX

Singh, Narend, 154 South African Congress of Trade Sisulu, Max, 80, 199 n31 Unions (SACTU), 80 siSwati language, 49 South African Defense Force Skills Development Act (No. 97, (SADF), 105, 180–81 1997), 86 South African Institute of Race Skosana, Ben, 152 Relations (SAIRR), 56 small groups, 21, 24–25, 27, South African Native National 31–32, 178 Congress (SANNC), 80 small parties, 24, 45, 76, 176–77 South African police, 105 social cleavage model, 28 Southern Sotho, 49–50 social constructivists, 7 South West African People’s social contracts, 6 Organization (SWAPO, social demographics (cleavages, Namibia), 170 divides), 3, 16–17, 19, 22–23, Soweto, 99 32–35 uprising (1976), 80 fundamental cleavages, defined, standard of living, 137 30–31 state, power of, to shape interaction of, with institutions, ethnic and racial identity, 31–35, 27, 163, 165 8–12, 15 mobilization strategy incentive state weakness, 5, 180 matrix and, 165, 177–79, 177 strategic choices, 17 structure of, 28–31 structural theories, 5–6 structure of, in South Africa, structure of government, 26 47–59 subnationalism, 9 see also specific groups and subregional governments, 22 identities Sudan, 2 social identities, 4, 27, 194 n41 Sunni-Shi’a-Kurd conflict (Iraq), active construction of, by political 32–33, 179 actors, 11–12 Suzman, Helen, 126 crosscut, 38 swart gevaar (black peril) tactics, interactional factors and, 113, 136 57–59, 177 Swazi group, 48, 49 layered and nested, 38 number, size, and types of, in Tambo, Oliver, 80 South Africa, 47–59, 48, taxes, 42–43, 140, 192 n12 54–55, 58 “Third Force” violence, 174 see also specific ethnic, language, trade unions, 87–88, 101, 140, racial, and religious groups 170, 198 n14 socialism, 146, 151 traditional leaders, 151–52, 158 Sotho language family, 48, 49–50 traditional values, 74–75, 144, South African Broadcasting 157–58 Corporation (SABC), 37, Transitional Executive Council 200 n38 (TEC), 180 South African Communist Party transitional phase (SACP), 70, 80–82, 87–88, active identity construction 98–99, 118, 170–71 during, 11 INDEX 259

continuity during, 180–82 United States ethnic violence and, 1 Department of State, 178 prospects for conflict during, Iraq and, 32–33 179–82 race in, 9–11 in South Africa, 64, 105, see also universal suffrage, 39 Government of National Unity; upper classes, 58, 58, 149 Interim Constitution urban areas, 50, 53, 56, 66–67, Transkei region, 169 121, 132, 146, 148–50, Transvaal province, 106 156, 174 tribes and tribalism, 4, 7–8, 32–33, 37, 39, 49, 150, 179 van der Merve, Koos, 162 Tripartite Alliance (ANC-SACP- van Schalkwyk, Marthinus, 64, 73, COSATU), 70, 82, 87–88, 94, 107–9, 111, 113, 119–20, 169, 198 n17 123, 204 n34, 208 n46 Truth and Reconciliation Venda group, 48, 49 Commission (TRC), 90, 109, voters 202 n17 ethnic cues and, 11–12 Tshwete, Steve, 98 registration of, 117, 204 n33 Tsonga, 49 turnout and apathy among, Tswana, 48, 49–50 173–74, 212 n13 “two nations” rhetoric, 70–71, voting districts, 45 90–91, 99 voting rights, 39 Vryheidsfront/Freedom Front Ubhoko, 145, 208 n3 (VF/VV), 112 Umkhonto weSizwe (Spear of the Nation), 80 waste and fraud, 43 unemployment, 56, 69, 117–18, Western Cape province, 49, 52, 140, 194 n41 66–67, 72–73, 82, 96, 98, Union of South Africa, 80 100, 105, 107–8, 110–16, unitary state or system, 27 120, 122, 131–33, 135, ANC desire for, 43–44 137–38, 140, 156, 166, 172, federal systems vs., 33 202 n11, 206 n27, 210 n41 South Africa as, 38–39 Western Europe, 29–30 United Christian Democratic Front, whites, 39 193 n20 ANC and, 70, 82, 90–91, 93–94, United Christian Democratic Party 98, 99 (UCDP), 67 DP/DA and, 16, 66–67, 128–29, United Democratic Front (UDF), 131–33, 137, 142 64, 68–69, 81, 87–89, 98, 145 IFP and, 156 United Democratic Movement -nonwhite political divide, 70, (UDM), 75, 132, 169, 76, 90–91, 99 171–72 NP/NNP and, 16, 72, 105–6, United National Independence 108, 111–13, 116, 118, 123 Party (UNIP, Zambia), 2 as racial group, in South Africa, United Nations, 173 48, 48, 50–51, 55–56, 55 United Party, 126 as racial group, in U.S., 10 260 INDEX

Woods, Gavin, 210 n41 Congress of Trade Unions, 169 working class, 53, 79, 82, 85–88 Movement for Democratic Worrall, Denis, 126 Change, 169 Zulu, Bishop Alphaeus Xhosa, 48, 48–50, 56, 158 Hamilton, 145 battles with Zulus, 50, 67, 174 Zulu kingdom, 146–48, 153, 158 Zulu monarchy, 40, 146–48, 158 Yengeni, Tony, 170 Zulus, 165 Yoruba, 9, 27 ANC and, 150–51 Yugoslavia, former, 13, 164 defined, 48, 48–50, 56 IFP and, 16, 37–38, 143–62, Zambia, 2, 29–30, 59, 81, 166–67 187 n37 IFP attempt to expand beyond, zero-sum competition, 22, 182 156–57 “zero tolerance,” 118 Xhosa battles with, 50, 67, 174 Zimbabwe, 2, 118, 140, 209 n23 Zuma, Jacob, 97, 169, 170–71 African Patriotic Front-African Zwellithini, King Goodwill, National Union merger, 152 147–48, 158