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Landslide Risk Assessment Along a Major Road Corridor Based on Historical Landslide Inventory and Traffic Analysis

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Landslide Risk Assessment Along a Major Road Corridor Based on Historical Landslide Inventory and Traffic Analysis Landslide risk assessment along a major road corridor based on historical landslide inventory and traffic analysis Jagannath Nayak January, 2010 Landslide risk assessment along a major road corridor based on historical landslide inventory and traffic analysis by Jagannath Nayak Thesis submitted to the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, Specialisation: (Geo-Hazards) Thesis Assessment Board Thesis Supervisors Chairman Prof. Dr. Victor Jetten (ITC) Dr. Cees van Westen (ITC) External Examiner Dr. D.D. Joshi (SDMC, New Dehli) Mr. I.C. Das (IIRS) Supervisor Mr. I.C. Das (IIRS) IIRS Member Dr. P.K. Chamapatiray (IIRS) ITC Member Drs. Michael Damen (ITC) INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION ENSCHEDE, THE NETHERLANDS AND INDIAN INSTITUTE OF REMOTE SENSING DEHRADUN, INDIA Dedicated to Bou & Bapa Disclaimer This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation. All views and opinions expressed therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the institute. Jagannath Nayak Abstract Landslides are destructive and annually recurring phenomena which cause disruption of traffic and fatalities along the road in the Himalayas. They are more frequent along the cut slopes of the transportation routes such as road corridors than on natural slopes. Risk quantification of landslide is one of the major challenges in research because of the uncertainty associated with its occurrence. This study aims at quantifying the amount of direct risk for a part of National Highway 108 (Uttarakhand), based on the different types of vehicles and different landslide types, magnitudes and expected return periods and the indirect risk generated as the loss of profit due to the blockage of the National Highway 108 by landslides. A multi-temporal inventory of landslides was prepared with the help of available BRO records from 1994 to 2008 and using 12 multi-spectral and panchromatic images of IRS and Cartosat. On the basis of field data and signatures obtained from satellite images, 178 landslide events were identified and separated into rock and debris slide with 3 magnitude classes for each landslide type. In total 164 mapping units were generated for the study area for the characterization of landslides. For these 18 hazard scenarios were developed on the basis of 2 landslide types, 3 magnitude classes and for 1, 3 and 5year return periods. For each of these scenarios a Poisson probability model was used for estimating the temporal probability and direct spatial probability was estimated from the area of the landslide with respect to the area of the mapping unit. High hazard for rock slide magnitude III and debris slide magnitude III was obtained as 0.69 and 0.77 respectively in a 5yr return period. The lowest hazard was estimated for debris slides with a magnitude I showing 0.002 probability of hazard. The vulnerability of different vehicles was estimated on the basis of Average Vehicle Density for particular type of vehicle and different magnitudes of landslides with the help of a Poisson Curve. Highest vulnerability of two wheelers, four wheelers and large vehicles was obtained as 0.8, 0.6 and 0.4 respectively for rock slides with a magnitude III. The vulnerability of the road itself was estimated on the basis of the length of the road damaged due to a particular landslide, taking into account slide material accumulation, removing cost and repairing cost of the damage road. Rock slides with magnitude III show the highest vulnerability for road i.e. 0.9. Specific risk to different elements at risk was calculated on the basis of the 18 hazard scenarios for two wheelers, four wheelers, big vehicles and the road itself study with the help of collateral data obtained from the field. Direct risk for different vehicles due to all magnitudes of debris slide was found to be 70000 $ while direct risk for different vehicles due to all magnitudes of rock slide 245000 $. Direct risk of road was found to be 2200000 $ due to rock slide which was quite higher than the direct risk of road due to debris slides i.e.540000 $. Indirect risk in this study was calculated on the basis of road blockage time and loss of profit to various business types in Gangnani, Harsil and Sukhi Top during peak season. The highest indirect risk was observed in religious vendors for both the places i.e.9000 $ in Gangnani and 130000 $ in Harsil and Sukhi Top. This study in a Himalayan road corridor serves as a case example for the assessment of quantitative risk for landslides which can be useful to planners and decision makers in the hill area development. i Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to acknowledge ITC and IIRS for giving me this golden opportunity to do this highly reputed international joint education programme. I would like to give all my gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Cees van Westen, who kept my confidence and spirit high throughout the last stage of my thesis. I highly appreciate his careful thoughts, invaluable comments, constructive suggestions and patience. It has been a great pleasure for me to have a guide like him. I would like to express my sincere appreciation and thanks to Mr. I.C. Das and for being my IIRS supervisor. His suggestions for time to time made me stay focused in the right direction to achieve the objective of the study. Words are not enough to express the gratitude to Prof. P.K. Champatiray for his presence in IIRS and for his kind suggestion and comments. I am very thankful to Prof. R.C. Lakhera making me learn the interpretation techniques for satellite images. A special thanks for S.K Srivastava for his technical comments I thank to Dr. V.K. Dadhwal, Dean, IIRS for providing me all the necessary support during the entire course. I cannot forget to mention Dr. V. Hari Prasad, for the help in course of research, especially guiding me in proper aspect. I am also grateful to Drs. Michiel Damen, Programme Coordinator, ITC for his kind cooperation and providing all support at ITC. A special thanks to all faculty of Geosciences Division and Water Resource Division of IIRS and Faculty of Department of Applied Earth Science, ITC. A very special thanks for Subha for his consistent technical and conceptual support during these 6 months, whose support has help me to complete this thesis. I am immensely thankful to Mr. Pankaj Jaiswal (GSI) and Mr. Tapas Martha (NRSC) for their critical reviews and effective suggestions which helped a lot for completion of this research. I extend my thank to each of my batchmates and friend indeed, Vikash, Bante, Tuba, Sananda, Dipanita, Arnab da, Mr. S.P. Singh, for being there to stand with me for all difficulties and funny moments at IIRS and ITC. Thanks are due to the all friends of Geoinformatics Division Sivi, Dipanita, Girish for time spent with them throughout the whole course. The fun we had at IIRS and the 3 months in ITC can never be out of my memory. A special thanks to Nitin Bhatia to be my roommate for 15 months stay in IIRS. A very special thanks to Veena who supported me all the time during these 6 months. I am very much thankful to Sarkar for his technical help during this research. A word of thanks to Dada, Didi, Himani and all the P.G.Diploma students of my batch for their help and sharing with me their knowledge about Earth Sciences. I also thankful to my seniors Sashikant and Gaurav for their support from beginning of this course. Finally the love of my life, my loving parents and sisters, thank you for your constant support and encouragement to complete this course. Your love and faith are my strengths without I would not have reached this far. No words to express my debt and my love for you. Bless me for success all time in future so that I am able to fulfil your dream. ii Table of contents 1. Introduction ...............................................................................................................................8 1.1. Background of Research .......................................................................................................8 1.2. Motivation ......................................................................................................................... 10 1.3. Aims and Objective of the Research .................................................................................... 12 1.3.1. Main-Objective........................................................................................................... 12 1.3.2. Sub-Objective............................................................................................................. 12 1.3.3. Research Questions .................................................................................................... 12 1.4. Thesis Outline .................................................................................................................... 13 2. Literature Review .................................................................................................................... 14 2.1. Landslide: Type and Causes ............................................................................................... 14 2.2. Landslide Studies in India ................................................................................................... 16 2.3. Landslide
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