San Rafael Shoreline - 1953

“CLIMATE ADAPTATION - SEA LEVEL RISE” SAN RAFAEL, CA WHITE PAPER

January 2014

Prepared by the City of San Rafael Department of Community Development Paul A. Jensen, AICP, Community Development Director with the Assistance of Anais Hall, Sustainability Volunteer and The Department of Public Works File No. P13-002 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This document presents a “white paper” on the topic of sea level rise. This topic has been a growing concern in the last decade as studies continue to report and confirm its direct connection to climate change associated with global warning. This paper was prepared as a ‘first step’ in responding to the San Rafael Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP), which was adopted in 2009. The CCAP includes several programs related to long-term planning for sea level rise, which recommend, among others, completing an inventory of the public and private levees throughout San Rafael and preparing a vulnerability assessment that would include recommended strategies for adaptation. A discussion of the CCAP and these programs is provided in Section III, page 11 of this paper. Section III (pages 12-14) also summarizes other measures that San Rafael has employed or identified to address flooding, drainage and sea level rise (GIS Map Guide System, San Rafael Creek canal dredging, and SMART Station Area Plans).

This white paper is not a technical study nor is it a detailed quantitative analysis of sea level rise or its potential impacts on the community. Further, this paper does not present answers or solutions to sea level rise in San Rafael. Rather, this paper has been prepared to provide information that can be used in understanding this issue and moving forward to the next steps for long-range planning. This paper: a) identifies the key agencies that have been involved in studying and planning for this topic; b) presents the most current information and studies on sea level rise, particularly in the Bay Area; c) identifies potential funding sources to pursue for next steps; d) summarizes the studies underway in the Marin and the North Bay; e) describes techniques and tools that have been developed for adaptation; f) identifies the San Rafael shoreline and levees areas to study, as well as potential opportunity areas for studying adaptation; and g) presents suggestions for next steps in moving forward with preparing a vulnerability and long-term planning for sea level rise.

There are a number of federal, state, regional and county agencies as well as one North Bay organization that are currently addressing or studying sea level rise and related issues such as flooding. These efforts are presented in Section II of this paper (pages 4-11). The Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) has been in the lead with its initial publication of sea level prediction maps in 2007. The BCDC maps predict that water levels in the Bay will raise 16-inches by 2050 and 55-inches by 2100. Also, at the regional level, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) have joined to prepare a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) required by Senate Bill 375. Known as the Plan Bay Area, this SCS includes, among others, the formation of a Joint Policy Committee (JPC), which is a collaboration of four regional agencies working to develop: a) tools for conducting vulnerability and sea level rise assessments; b) a sea level adaptation strategy; and c) a funding plan for counties and local jurisdictions to plan for and assess sea level rise. At the federal level, the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) administers the flood hazard zone maps (FIRM), which are updated on-average every five years. The maps for the Central San Rafael basin are currently being updated. In response to the latest FIRM updates, FEMA will be recommending new regulations requiring higher finished floor elevations for structures. While this FEMA recommendation was in response to more detailed information available on tidal and wave action, this is some correlation to sea level rise.

There is an abundance of studies, reports and assessments that have been prepared on sea level rise since the 2007 publication of the BCDC prediction maps. Section IV of this paper (pages 14-25) provides a summary of studies and assessment efforts that have been completed since the 2007, with the primary focus on the Bay Area. Most notable is a 2011 risk assessment pilot project completed for the Alameda County shoreline, which was sponsored by BCDC, MTC and Caltrans. Known as the “ART Project,” this pilot project has established a template for other pilot projects and for the preparation of vulnerability assessments. “SPUR,” a Bay Area-based, member-supported non-profit organization have completed several reports/publications. One of the publications (2009) identifies seven adaptive strategies for addressing sea level rise, which are suited to the Bay Area conditions.

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One of the biggest challenges to assessing and planning for sea level rise is funding. Section IV of this paper (pages 22-24) provides a list of available and possible funding sources for pursuing studies and adaptation. Funding sources and grant opportunities for studies include, among others: Government Issue (GI) bonds, the California Emergency Management Agency and FEMA, and the California Coastal Conservancy. Funding sources for construction (e.g., adaptation) include the US Army Corps of Engineers (funding shoreline restoration projects), the Coastal Conservancy and the North Bay Watershed Association. The major take-away regarding the availability of grants is that the City must have a current, adopted Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. These plans are required to be updated every five years. The City’s current Multi-Hazard Mitigation plan was last updated in the mid-2000’s, which must be updated.

There are a number of on-going pilot programs and studies underway in Marin County, which are discussed in Section V of this paper (pages 25-28). Most notable is the Richardson Bay Pilot Program, which was initiated by the Marin County Department of Public Works in 2010. Rather than focusing on assessing vulnerability, the pilot program has employed actual engineering concepts at bay front locations along the Richardson Bay. This program includes the Aramburu Beach/Island Restoration Project, the first demonstration project of its kind in the Bay Area. This demonstration project is designed to test natural shoreline approaches to monitor wind and wave erosion, as well as sea level rise. Further, Marin County Supervisor Kate Sears has initiated and is implementing a vulnerability assessment pilot program for the Tamalpais Valley and Marin City areas (Southern Marin Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Program). This pilot program primarily uses the BCDC “ART Project” template with a more “grassroots” approach that involves community input through all phases of this program. Closer to home, the County of Marin Department of Public Works is overseeing the Gallinas Watershed Program, which is studying flood protection and habitat restoration, which are both tied to planning for predicted sea level rise.

There have been a number of adaptation measures and tools that have been developed and tested to combat or plan for sea level rise. Section IV of this paper (pages 17-18 and 20-22) provides a description of some of the measures that have been developed, with some tested locally. Phillip Williams and Associates (now ESA-PWA), a Bay Area environmental planning and engineering firm has been in the forefront by introducing measures such as “retreat - levee relocation” (moving levees inland) and the “horizontal levee” (conversion of mudflats/tidelands to marsh). Other, more conventional measures include barriers (sea walls, tidal gates) and raising levees.

The San Rafael shoreline and levees are diverse and there are expansive areas that are vulnerable to projected sea level rise. Section VI (pages 28-29) and Appendix A of this paper broadly identifies the shorelines and levees, which include areas of Downtown, the inner Canal (areas bordering the San Rafael Creek), the East San Rafael shoreline (encompassing the low-lying areas that were filled in the last century and border the Bay), areas of the San Pedro Peninsula and the Gallinas Creek basin. Please note that the properties and areas presented in Appendix A were not identified based on engineering studies or technical data, but on historic knowledge and familiarity with the community. This paper also includes potential opportunity areas in San Rafael that are worthy of study for adaptation. These areas are described in Section VI (pages 29-30) and in Appendix B of this paper.

This paper presents a number of challenges that need to be acknowledged and considered before preparing a vulnerability assessment. As summarized in Section VII of this paper, long term planning for sea level rise cannot be done in isolation; it will require the collaborative effort of multiple agencies. Given the expanse of area that would be affected by predicted sea level rise, the number of stakeholders is substantial. Thirdly, the San Rafael shoreline and levee conditions substantially vary by neighborhood, so a “one-size-fits-all” approach is not possible. Further, there are limited City resources and funding. Lastly, this paper provides a list of suggested “next steps (see Section VIII, page 31), which include, among others, a City commitment to prioritize and staff the preparation of a vulnerability assessment.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page I. INTRODUCTION & PURPOSE 4

II. BACKGROUND 4 A. Federal Level 4 B. State Level 6 C. Regional & County Levels 9

III. BRINGING IT TO A LOCAL LEVEL- WHAT HAS SAN RAFAEL DONE TO DATE? 12 A. San Rafael Climate Change Action Plan & Sustainability Element 12 B. GIS (Map Guide) 12 C. San Rafael Creek - Canal Dredging 13 D. SMART Station Area Plans 14

IV. WHAT HAS BEEN STUDIED AND DEVELOPED IN MARIN, REGION AND BEYOND 14 A. Studies and Assessment Efforts Completed to Date 14 B. Lessons Learned from Completed Assessments 19 C. Approaches and Tools to Conducting a Vulnerability Assessment 19 D. Strategies in Managing Sea Level Rise 20 E. Funding Sources and Regulatory Requirements 22

V. CURRENT STUDIES AND STRATEGIES UNDERWAY IN MARIN 25 A. Richardson Bay Pilot Program 25 B. C-SMART 26 C. Marin Climate and Energy Partnership (MCEP) 26 D. Southern Marin (Vulnerability Assessment) Pilot Project 26 E. Gallinas Creek Watershed Program 27 F. BCDC Pilot Project for Priority Development Areas (PDA) 28

VI. ASSESSING LOCAL CONDITIONS & OPPORTUNITIES 28 A. Identifying San Rafael’s Levees and Shorelines 28 B. Identifying Adaptation Strategies Potentially Suitable for San Rafael 29 C. Identifying Potential Opportunity Areas for Adaptation 29

VII. CHALLENGES 30

VIII. NEXT STEPS 31

Appendices Appendix A. San Rafael’s Levees and Shorelines Appendix B. San Rafael’s Possible Opportunity Areas for Adaptation Appendix C. Examples of Private Improvements Appendix D. Bibliography & Acknowledgements

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I. INTRODUCTION & PURPOSE

In the past decade, there have been groundbreaking studies and an increased public awareness on the worldwide effects of climate change associated with global warming. Studies continue to document that global warming is continuing at progressive rates, which has been demonstrated by warmer and colder seasonal temperatures and patterns of more severe seasonal storm events. It is projected that sea levels will continue to rise as precipitation continues to increase and ice caps continue to melt. While we will not be able to stop the rise in sea levels resulting from these changes, we have the opportunity and must plan to adapt to this change. There are number of large geographic areas of San Rafael that are at risk for flooding and will be dramatically impacted by sea level rise. These geographic areas include valley floors, properties with low-lying elevations (some at sea level), and areas that are now filled and were once marshland. Most of these areas are developed so returning them to original, natural state is not a viable option. To this end, the effects of sea level rise, while viewed as a “climate” problem is a “people” problem; the focus must be on adaptation (e.g., to plan for and protect vulnerable populations and neighborhoods). Starting with the 'big picture,' there is a need to identify what is going to happen, how fast is it going to happen, and what can be done about it.

The purpose of this paper is to: a) identify key agencies that have some level of oversight on this topic; b) provide a summary of resources and data prepared and available to date on the topic of sea level rise; c) preliminarily identify vulnerable areas in San Rafael that require further study, and potential areas for adaptation; d) report on what has been or is being studied and pursued in the Bay Area to date; and e) identify possible next steps for the City of San Rafael to complete a vulnerability assessment.

II. BACKGROUND

As a global issue, sea level rise crosses over a number of federal, state, regional and county agencies. The following is a brief summary of the key agencies that are currently involved in studying and planning for this topic.

A. Federal Level Historically, local and county jurisdictions have relied on and deferred to the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) to document and map areas that are prone to flooding. Generally, every five-six years, FEMA updates and publishes maps (FIRM- Flood Insurance Rate Map) identifying flood prone areas and zones of vulnerability. As discussed below, the next update of the FIRM maps for the Central San Rafael basin will be completed and released in 2014. The FIRM maps delineate several flood zones, which are defined as follows:

 Zones A, AE, AH, AO, AR, A99, V and VE (referenced as “Areas of Special Flood Hazard”)- areas subject to 1% chance of flooding in any given year (formerly referred to as the 100-year flood zone)  Zone X- areas subject to 0.2% chance of flooding in any given year and areas protected by levees from the 1% chance of flooding in any given year  Zone D- areas where flood hazards are undetermined

The FIRM maps play several critical roles. First, the maps are used by local and county agencies to identify and plan for local or area flood protection. Second, the maps are used by the banking and insurance industries to determine if flood insurance is mandated for a specific property or area. Lands located within the Areas of Special Flood Hazard require that flood protection insurance be secured for federally-funded loans. Lastly, the maps are used at the Federal (and State) level to plan for waterway projects that are administered by the US Army Corps of Engineers. The most current FIRM maps that are available were updated and published in 2009.

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There are numerous areas of San Rafael that are prone to flooding and are within the two FEMA flood zones. Areas within the flood zone are near or border waterways and are typically, low-lying, former diked baylands and marshlands. The larger, more significant flood prone areas include: the Central San Rafael Basin (southern portions of Downtown San Rafael extending from the San Rafael Canal/Creek westward to E Street, south including portions of Gerstle Park; Woodland Avenue area extending into portions of the Bret Harte neighborhood); Southeast San Rafael (the Canal neighborhood and greater East San Rafael residential and commercial areas including Spinnaker Point, Kerner Boulevard, Andersen Drive), San Pedro Peninsula (low-lying residential neighborhoods north of the San Rafael Canal including Summit Avenue/Marina Vista and Mooring Road, Loch Lomond Marina and low-lying areas of Peacock Gap); and the Gallinas Creek Basin (east of US101).

A sample map of a portion of the East San Rafael area is provided in Figure 1 below. This map delineates areas within the Areas of Special Flood Hazard.

Figure 1: Southeast San Rafael Sample 2011 FEMA “Areas of Special Flood Hazard”

For all lands within the FEMA 100-year flood zone, construction is required to comply with elevation regulations. The 2009 FEMA regulations require a finished floor height elevation for buildings of +9.0 National Geodedic Vertical Datum (NGVD). This finished floor elevation requirement is applied to all new construction and is also required for substantial renovations or additions to existing buildings. As a matter of precaution, the City of San Rafael’s policy and practice is to require an additional 1-foot of elevation

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("freeboard") above the FEMA standard. More recently, the City has approved even higher finished elevation provisions to address potential sea level rise. For example, in the planning of the Village at Loch Lomond Marina development, an additional 1.5 feet of elevation was approved, over and above the additional "freeboard" typically required by the City.

FEMA is in the process of updating the FIRM maps for Marin County. Updated maps have been completed for the Marin City/Tamalpais Valley and Ross Valley watershed areas. There is a small segment of San Rafael that is located within the Ross Valley watershed (portions of the Gerstle Park neighborhood) for which the City has received updated FIRM maps. These maps go into effect in March 2014. It is expected that the preliminary maps for the Central San Rafael basin will be completed in 2014. The map process will require that FEMA provide an appeal period which will allow for requests to adjust the mapping boundaries. The date of determination of the final FIRM maps and the effective dates of these maps will be in spring 2015.

Following this round of FIRM map updates, FEMA will be changing the finished floor height elevation thresholds for flood zone delineation and federal requirements for protective levees. FEMA has reported that the new regulations (expected to be adopted for application next year) will require a finished floor height elevation of +10.00 NGVD, which is being administered to address, in part, more detailed and technical information available on tidal and wave action. Therefore, it is expected that the geographic boundaries of the flood zones will increase or change. In summary, the change in the FIRM maps and finished floor elevation thresholds will influence the following:

 Regarding the Marin County shoreline levees, with the exception of the bayfront levee improvements being constructed by the US Army Corps of Engineers along the former Hamilton Airfield in Novato, none of the existing Marin bay front levees meet the predicted federal standards for height or type.

 It is expected that with the FEMA updates, there will be a substantial increase in the flood insurance rates for properties within the Areas of Special Flood Hazard. The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act (2013) will result in increased insurance premiums.

B. State Level In 2006, the State Legislature passed and former Governor Arnold Schwarzengger signed AB 32, the Global Warming Solution Act of 2006. This action established a law mandating a statewide reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020. While AB 32 focuses on reducing GHG emissions, not rising sea levels, it was a landmark action as it is the first State law to establish mandates for combating global warming.

Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) The Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) is a state agency that provides regulatory authority over the San Francisco Bay. Operating since 1970, BCDC: a) is responsible for implementing and enforcing the San Francisco Bay Plan (Bay Plan); and b) has review and permit authority over baylands and upland areas within 100 feet of the shoreline. In 2007, BCDC completed and published maps showing predictions for sea level rise in and around the San Francisco Bay for years 2050 and 2100. These maps are available on the BCDC website at http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/index_map.shtml. Given the limited yet evolving information that is available to date on this issue, there is still a great amount of uncertainty surrounding precise predictions on the extent on potential sea level rise. However, BCDC predicts, based on information available to date (FEMA flood zones, existing watersheds, and former tidelands/bay lands), that water levels in the San Francisco Bay will raise 16-inches by 2050 and 55-inches by 2100. It is important to note that BCDC includes a disclosure on its maps, which states, "For Informational Purposes Only." The intent of this disclosure is to ensure that they are not be used as a technical tool in making

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local land use decisions, but rather a precautionary resource to trigger further study when addressing projects in areas prone to potential sea level rise.

Figure 2- (Source: Argonaut Company- 2013)

To date, the City of San Rafael has used the BCDC maps as a reference in scoping and conducting environmental review on specific development projects. The BCDC maps identify four geographic areas of San Rafael that are vulnerable to projected sea level rise (see Figure 3), which are:

1. Central San Rafael Basin- includes San Rafael Canal/Creek and neighborhoods bordering the creek, and major portions of Downtown

2. Southeast San Rafael- includes Canal/Spinnaker Point/Baypoint residential areas and the greater commercial and light industrial areas around the I-580 corridor

3. San Pedro Peninsula- low-lying areas of Peacock Gap and Glenwood neighborhoods and portions of residential neighborhoods bordering the Bay

4. North San Rafael- greater Gallinas Creek Basin from the Bay west to US 101

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Figure 3: Cal-adopt.com BCDC (2007), USGS and Pacific Institute

In addition to the sea level prediction maps, BCDC has been developing a "toolbox" of basic recommendations and adaptive strategies for local agency and regional use (discussed below in Section IV). In 2008, BCDC prepared a vulnerability assessment, Living With A Rising Bay: Vulnerability And Adaptation In San Francisco Bay And On the Shoreline, that identifies: (1) key Bay systems, both in the natural and the built environment; (2) the stressors they presently face; (3) the potential impacts due to sea level rise and coastal flooding; (4) the sensitivity of the systems to these impacts; and (5) their adaptability. Integral to preparation of the assessment was research on sea level rise inundation in the Bay Area by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and an analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of that potential inundation by the Pacific Institute. The results show that approximately 180,000 acres of shoreline are vulnerable to flooding following a 16-inch rise in sea level, and more than 213,000 acres following a 55-inch rise in sea level, potentially flooding over a quarter-million of the Bay’s residents. The replacement value of the resources at risk is about $62 billion.

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BCDC has taken a lead in developing a Local Government Adaptation Assistance Program (AAP) to provide information and resources to Bay Area local and regional governments to assist them in planning for and adapting to the impacts of a changing climate. These outreach efforts primarily focus on addressing the needs of land use planning, public works, park and open space districts, flood control districts and wastewater authorities, as well as resource-based managers. The long-term goal of the AAP is to help San Francisco Bay Area communities achieve coordinated and region wide adaptation to climate change impacts. The AAP contributes to this goal by building capacity within local governments to assess climate change issues, and to plan for and implement adaptation strategies.

BCDC has identified five broad program components for accomplishing these AAP objectives: (1) building partnerships that cut across jurisdictional boundaries, both geographic and sectorial; (2) public outreach to build community and institutional support for adaptation planning; (3) education to help planners and managers develop knowledge and skills for adaptation planning; (4) creation of a “one-stop shop” website and information clearinghouse; and (5) development and dissemination of strategies to improve the region’s resilience and adaptive capacity.

California Coastal Commission The California Coastal Commission (est. 1976) is a state agency that provides planning and regulatory authority over the California coastline and points inland. The California Coastal Act (1972) requires that a Local Coastal Plan (LCP) be developed by each county in California that borders the coast. The LCP for Marin County has been incorporated into the Marin Countywide Plan. In November 2012, the California Coastal Commission prepared and released its Draft Sea Level Rise Guidance. This draft guidance document provides recommendations for local governments, applicants and others on how to address sea level rise in Local Coastal Programs and Coastal Development Permits. Further, this guidance explains the importance of using the best available science on sea level rise, avoiding hazards and protecting coastal habitats. This guidance can be accessed at http://www.coastal.ca.gov/climate/SLRguidance.html. The following are some of the guidance tools presented in this document:

 Acknowledge and address sea level rise as necessary in planning and permitting decisions  Use the best available science to determine locally-relevant sea level rise projections, as well as the range of the projections for the study area  Assess the potential risks from sea level rise to resources and development  Avoid significant coastal hazard risks where feasible (e.g., areas of flooding or geologic instability)  Minimize the hazard risk to new development over the life of the structures  Account for the social and economic needs of people  Property owners should assume the risks associated with new development in hazard areas  Consider conducting vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning at the regional level  Provide for maximum public participation in planning and regulatory processes

While the San Rafael bayfront is not within the coastal zone, this guidance provides some good recommendations that can be applied to future planning for sea level rise along the bayfront.

C. Regional & County Levels

Plan Bay Area- Strategy for a Sustainable Region The Bay Area, which encompasses nine counties, is served by a number of regional agencies, including the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). ABAG and MTC manage, administer and oversee regional planning and transportation matters. In 2008, Governor Schwarzenegger signed Senate Bill 375 (SB 375), which promoted a direct linkage of regional transportation plans (RTP) with the statewide goals to reduce GHG emissions (AB 32). SB 375 requires that metropolitan transportation organizations (such as MTC) develop a Sustainable Communities

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Strategy (SCS), which is to serve as a new element of the RTP. The goal of the SCS is to reach a GHG reduction target for each region. The transportation target for the Bay Area is a seven percent (7%) GHG reduction per capita by 2020 and a 15% reduction per capita by 2040.

For the Bay Area region, the SCS process involves a partnership of four regional agencies: a) MTC; b) ABAG; c) the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD); and d) the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC). MTC and ABAG lead the SCS effort with the preparation of the “Plan Bay Area- Strategy for a Sustainable Region” (Plan Bay Area). The final Plan Bay Area was adopted by MTC and ABAG on July 18, 2013. While most of the Plan Bay Area addresses ways to achieve reductions in GHG emissions through tools such concentrated growth (“Priority Development Areas”) and funding strategies to promote increased transit use, it includes a section addressing climate adaptation and sea level rise. The Plan promotes, endorses and commits to regional efforts through a Joint Policy Committee (JPC) comprised of representatives from MTC, ABAG, BCDC and the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD). The JPC is commissioned to work collectively to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments, a sea level adaptation strategy, and develop a Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP) to provide funding to counties and local jurisdictions for planning and assessments.

In 2011, the JPC was given direction to produce a Bay Area Climate and Energy Resilience Project to provide guidance on how to include protecting the Bay Area’s economy, public health, infrastructure and ecosystems from sea-level rise, water shortages, high energy prices and other impacts in long-term regional and local planning, including Plan Bay Area. In May 2013, the project was completed presenting a six-month Needs Assessment and a proposed Action Plan. The findings from the Needs Assessment are contained in five reports:

 Stakeholder Interview Summary (including an inventory of nearly 100 Bay Area projects)  Mapping Our Future: A Work Plan for Public Engagement and Social Equity  Bay Area Integrated Win-Win Strategies (Resilience + GHG reduction)  What’s Going to Happen and What Can We Do About It? (Science information for decision- makers)  Effective Governance for Multi-Jurisdictional, Multi-Sector Climate Adaptation

The 12-Month Action Plan outlines a five-point plan to significantly accelerate and strengthen Bay Area adaptation planning. The plan will now be used to engage funders and supporters in discussions on moving forward. The reports and action plan can be accessed at http://www.cakex.org/directory/organizations/bay-area-joint-policy-committee.

In September 2012, the JPC adopted a work plan to develop a Regional Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategy. The objective of this project is to ensure the on-going health and ecological viability of regional natural resources, such as San Francisco Bay; coordinate adaptation mechanisms that transcend local jurisdictional boundaries; and share the costs of adaptation responses at a regional level, especially when regional resources are involved. The sea level rise adaption strategy work plan focuses on providing enough background information and support to develop a “bottom-up” regional strategy where the regional agencies work with local entities to assess vulnerabilities and risks, identify critical assets, explore adaptation options, and use a balanced approach to identify costs, benefits and adaptation strategies for the natural resources/ecosystem services provided by the Bay and its watersheds. The lessons learned from these collaborative efforts will be used to inform the second iteration of Plan Bay Area and be fully integrated into the third iteration.

County of Marin The County of Marin Department Public Works (including Flood Control) takes the lead on addressing countywide issues related to flood control/protection and water quality. More recently, some of this work has transitioned into addressing sea level rise. The County manages over nine flood control zones,

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including two in the North San Rafael area (Zones 6 and 7), which cover both incorporated and unincorporated lands in the Gallinas Creek Watershed. These are independent assessment districts formed for the sole purpose of addressing flood control.

In 2008, the Marin County Watershed Program was initiated as a project of the Marin County Department of Public Works. This watershed program covers all major developed watersheds in Marin including: San Antonio/Novato Creek, Gallinas Creek, Ross Valley, Richardson Bay, and Stinson Beach. The goals of this program are as follows:

• Partner with local municipalities, agencies, and non-profits • System-wide analysis of flood protection options • Identify multi-benefit type projects • Protect, enhance and restore habitat and water quality • Improve efficiency of flood control maintenance operations • Evaluate the beneficial re-use of dredged material • Identify sea level rise adaptation strategies • Work with the natural watershed processes

The base of this program is stakeholder engagement. The program utilizes three working groups/committees which are: a) a Policy Advisory Committee (includes decision makers); b) a Technical Working Group (technical staff); and c) an Operations and Finance Committee (committee seeks out funding sources). Some of the goals are to develop models and other tools, potential alternatives and funding strategies. The funding partners include, among others, the County of Marin, the City of San Rafael, the City of Novato, the City of Mill Valley and several of the flood control and service districts. A 10-year work plan has been developed for this program, which includes the Gallinas Watershed Program. This project is discussed under Section V of the paper (Current Studies and Strategies Underway in Marin). For more information on the Marin County Watershed Program, please see the Marin County website at www.marinwatersheds.org.1

North Bay Watershed Association (NBWA) While not a regulatory agency, the North Bay Watershed Association (NBWA) is a membership group of 16 regional and local public agencies located throughout Marin, Sonoma, and Napa counties. NBWA is committed to crafting a set of regional approaches to the problems and issues associated with managing the North Bay watersheds. The mission of NBWA is to facilitate partnerships across political boundaries that promote stewardship of the North Bay watershed resources.

The NBWA was created to help regulated local and regional public agencies work cooperatively on water resources issues that impact areas beyond traditional boundaries in order to promote stewardship of the North Bay watershed. Agencies participate in the NBWA in order to discuss issues of common interest, explore ways to work collaboratively on water resources projects of regional concern, and share information about projects, regulations, and technical issues. More recently, NBWA has been in the forefront of researching and addressing sea level rise. In 2013, NBWA commissioned PRBO, environmental consultants to prepare a report on adapting to sea level rise. This report is summarized in Section IV below. At present, the City of San Rafael is not a member of NBWA. The City’s membership was not renewed several years ago.

1 Meeting with Marin County Department of Public Works; December 16, 2013

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III. BRINGING IT TO A LOCAL LEVEL- WHAT HAS SAN RAFAEL DONE TO DATE?

A. San Rafael Climate Change Action Plan & Sustainability Element In response to AB 32, in 2008, the City of San Rafael embarked on preparing a Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP). The CCAP was prepared with the assistance and participation of a Green Ribbon Committee and stakeholders. Adopted in 2009, the City of San Rafael CCAP sets forth steps and implementing measures to combat and/or adapt to climate change. The “Our Environment” section of the CCAP the implementing measures that are specific to sea level rise are as follows:

Monitor sea level rise and plan for shoreline defense  EN7: Develop a program of levee analysis, including inventorying heights, testing and maintaining public and private levees.  EN8: Install a sea level monitoring gauge to track changes over time.

Increase understanding and preparation for the effects of climate change  EN9: Participate in Marin County’s regional vulnerability assessment, and prepare a local vulnerability assessment for San Rafael.  EN10: Continue to provide emergency planning and community awareness.

In 2011, the City folded the CCAP into the San Rafael General Plan 2020 by adopting a new Sustainability Element. The Sustainability Element includes the following policies and programs:

Policy SU-14. Adapting to Climate Change. Increase understanding and preparation to adapt to the effects of climate change, including sea level rise.

Program SU-14a. Vulnerability Assessment. Participation in Marin County’s regional vulnerability assessment and prepare a local vulnerability assessment for San Rafael.

Program SU-14c. Levee Analysis. Develop a program of levee analysis, including inventorying heights, testing and maintaining public and private levees.

Program SU-14d. Sea Level Monitoring and Planning. Work with the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) to monitor sea level rise and plan for shoreline defense.

The stakeholders involved in the initial CCAP process meet quarterly to discuss the City’s progress on implementing the CCAP programs. The CCAP group is tracking progress on addressing sea level rise. However, to date, limited progress has been made to initiate the above implementing programs. Most of these programs must be initiated, managed and completed by the City Department of Public Works, which would require budgeted funds in the future, as progress is made on this topic. Therefore, in order for the issue of sea level rise to be initiated, studied, and addressed, adequate funding for City staff (primarily Public Works Department) and the City’s Capital Improvement Program would need to be identified and prioritized.

B. GIS (Map Guide) System The City utilizes a GIS software program, which provides mapping of the City and the neighboring unincorporated area that is linked and shared with the County of Marin GIS system (www.marinmap.org). The GIS system provides electronic mapping of the City and the neighboring unincorporated areas and is programmed to provide assessor parcel based data such as property zoning, land use, property ownership, parcel size, etc. The program includes FEMA flood zone information. The GIS will be updated to incorporate the updated FEMA flood zone mapping that is currently being prepared.

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At present, the GIS system is accessible on the City's internal network only, and cannot be accessed externally from the City's website. This system provides an opportunity to serve as a repository for mapping sea level rise data, as it becomes available.

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122 301301301 304304304 454545 393939 2 14 1714 45 39 141414 301 304 HIGHWAY 35 14 A 35 171417141714 AVENUE353535 706 353535L 1714 1710 171017101710 35 33 706706706 35 1710 333333 706 17 310 33 31 36 171717 324 310310310 313131 363636 R FORBES 17 324324324 310 306 31 21 16 36 324 306306306 212121 306 21 161616 1323 316 32

DR 320 316316316 314 19 132313231323 323232 320LAUREL320320 316 314314314 191919 15 32

1618 1408 320 314 19 151515 11 1315 1318

161816181618 140814081408 312 300 15 111113151113151315 131813181318 20 15

20 20 16 20

1618 1408 312312312 300300300 11 1315 1318 151515 14 312 308 300 161616 20 15 1321 141414 308308308 14 40 132113211321 14 308 248 141414 404040 1321 248248248 14 40 248 240 240240240 18 240 1317 132213221322 181818 1309 18 236 130913091309 131713171317 1322 1721 1717 236236236 1309 36 172117211721 171717171717 236 228 363636 LUNNY1721 1717 1711 211 228228228 11 36 171117111711 211211211 228 224 111111 1711 211 224224224 1312 1315 43 11 224 220 131213121312 434343 210 341 337 319 220220220 1312 131513151315 43 131713171317 210210210 341341341 337337337 319319319 220 1305 118 1315 1317 210 341 337 333 331 319 315 216 130513051305 118118118 1312 333333333 331331331 327 315315315 216216216 1305 118 ST 39 1621 131213121312 333 331 327327327 323 315 216 214 393939 162116211621 6 1312 327 323323323 214214214 39 1621 666 323 321 313 214 210 1318 6 321321321 313313313 210210210 131813181318 MISSION 321 313 309 210 124 1318 3 317 309309309 124124124 1315 333 317317317 311 309 303 124 131513151315 3 317 311311311 307 303303303 301 1315 311 307307307 303 301301301 207 307 301 204 632 LANE 207207207 245 204204204 632632632 1722 207 245245245 247 204 632 172217221722 1716 245 247247247 243 202 2 1722 171617161716 1710 1 247 243243243 241 202202202 132 222 1716 1712 171017101710 111 243 241241241 202 132132132 41 2 171217121712 1710 1 241 1302 132 128 1314 414141 1712 2 130213021302 128128128 131413141314 41 37 BELLE 222 1302 128 1314 373737 1708 1704 2 37 170817081708 170417041704 1702 1150 614 1708 1704 170217021702 115011501150 1136 233 614614614 1702 1150 113611361136 1134 233233233 PLACE 33 393939 614 1303 1634 AVE 1140 1136 113411341134 233 231 333333 163416341634 1142 114011401140 1134 231231231 33 39 130313031303 1634 1628 1125 114211421142 1140 231 1310 162816281628 112511251125 1142 131013101310 610 1628 1622 1125 225 114 1310 ST 610610610 162216221622 1130 225225225 114114114 110 610 1622 1618 113011301130 225 114 110110110 161816181618 1130 217 110 1618 1610 1120 217217217 112011201120 7 217 100 37 635 161016101610 1120 777 100100100 1306 373737 635635635 1610 1108 1106 7 100 130613061306 37 635 1604 1540 1534 110811081108 110611061106 1306 160416041604 1604 COTTAGE 154015401540 153415341534 1108 1106 215 AVE 1540 1534 215215215 211 1530 215 211211211 8 153015301530 211 8 8 8 1530 12 8 1717 130213021302 121212 33 171717171717 1526 1522 12 1717 152615261526 152215221522 205 1302 333333 1711 1526 1522 1012 205205205 33 1231 171117111711 101210121012 ST 205 6 123112311231 1711 FIFTH 1510 1012 131 6 6 6 1231 151015101510 WILKINS 131131131 6 1703 1510 1110 131 170317031703 111011101110 1145 119 1703 1110 114511451145 119119119 1145 119 272727 1637 1145 625 163716371637 114511451145 1135 115 111 625625625 1637 1145 113511351135 115115115 111111111 625 1135 918 115 111 918918918 914 1115 918 914914914 1290 111511151115 914 1215 129012901290 27 120 1629 1115 121512151215 1290 272727 162916291629 1400 900 120120120 1629 140014001400 900NYE900900 1202 115 120 1623 1400 900 120212021202 115115115 162316231623 1615 1202 1294 115 1623 161516151615 129412941294 1615 1294 607 1105 9 1232 607607607 110511051105 9 9 9 123212321232 607 1105 1211 9 7 1 1232 121112111211 7 7 7 111 21 1543 1211 7 1 212121 1607 154315431543 1123 21 110 160716071607 1543 1539 112311231123 110110110 1607 153915391539 1123 838 110 1539 838838838 1214

1601 1535 1230 838 834 121412141214

104 160116011601 153515351535 1531 123012301230 834834834 1214 111 104104104 1601 1535 153115311531 1230 834 101 111111111 104 1531 1527 5 111 152715271527 1099 MISSION828 555 1235 1527 1523 109910991099 828828828 820 1215 5 123512351235 152315231523 1517 1099 828 820820820 121512151215 1235 1523 151715171517 820 1215 106 1517 106106106 1513 1022 106 151315131513 102210221022 1200 1211 1513 1022 120012001200 1203 121112111211 1222 102 1200 1108 1114 1104 120312031203 1211 15 122212221222 1714 102 102102102 110811081108 111411141114 110411041104 1203 151515 1222 171417141714 102102102 102 1108 1114 1104 15 1714 102 105 1700 105105105 1099 170017001700 105 109910991099 1700 1017 1099 AVENUE 911 1223 STREET 101710171017 1409 911911911 122312231223 1554 1017 1415 140914091409 911 1223 155415541554 141514151415 1409 3 1618 100 1554 1415 790 333 161816181618 1616 100100100 790790790 3 1618 161616161616 1612 100 AVE790 20 1616 161216121612 1313 202020 1612 STREET 131313131313 1309 20 1560 1313 130913091309 1039 907 STEVENS 1604 156015601560 1309 103910391039 907907907 710 1220 160416041604 1560 1011 1018 1039 907 710710710 122012201220 1217 1604 1574 101110111011 101810181018 710 1220 121712171217 157415741574 1540 1011 1018 1100 1217 1574 1570 154015401540 110011001100 704 157015701570 1566 1540 1100 704704704 1570 156615661566 704 1566 1532 895 704 1556 153215321532 1000 895895895 704704704 FOURTH155615561556 1532 1060 STREET100010001000 895 704 1556 106010601060 1000 817 1219 1530 1060 1033 817817817 121912191219 153015301530 1009 103310331033 817 640 1219 1530 100910091009 1033 640640640 1709 1009 640 170917091709 1707 1701 1709 170717071707 170117011701 1031 823-25 1707 1701 103110311031 823-25823-25823-25 1031 112011201120 823-25 1619 1617 1524 VIA 1027 990 1120 1120 534 161916191619 161716171617 152415241524 102710271027 1101 990990990 112011201120 534534534 530 1619 1617 1615 1611 1524 1518 - 1522 1027 1201 110111011101 990 980 1120 534 530530530 526 161516151615 161116111611 1609 15181518 1518- 1522- 1522- 1522 1512 1040 120112011201 1101 980980980 713 530 526526526 1615 1613 1611 160916091609 1607 1605 1518 - 1522 151215121512 104010401040 1201 980 713713713 526 161316131613 1609 160716071607160516051605 1512 1504 1001 1040 SESSI1025 918 713 10 1613 1607 1605 1601 150415041504 100110011001 102510251025 918918918 1125 101010 160116011601 1504 1001 1020 1331 1025 918 112511251125 10 1601 STREET 102010201020 133113311331 1125 711 1569 1020 1331 711711711 1211 156915691569 1567 1446 1444 1011 1118 711 121112111211 1569 156715671567 1565 1561 144614461446 144414441444 1430 101110111011 JULIA 111811181118 1211 1567 156515651565 156115611561 1446 1444 143014301430 1011 1016 1118 1565 1561 1557 1430 101610161016 155715571557 1555 1414 1016 908 705 1557 155515551555 1553 141414141414 908908908 705705705 532 1555 155315531553 1551 1414 1408 1007 908 705 532532532 36 1553 155115511551 1547 140814081408 100710071007 900 532 528 1551 154715471547 1408 STREET 1007 900900900 1116 528528528 524 21 46 1547 1545 1400 900 111611161116 528 524524524 212121 464646 154515451545 1541 140014001400 1355 1322-38 1000 11161114 524 1207 21 22 46 1545 154115411541 1539 1400 135513551355 1322-381322-381322-38 100010001000 111411141114 120712071207 222222 1541 153915391539 1537 1355 1344 1322-38 1000 1015 1114 1207 22 9 1539 153715371537 1533 134413441344 1340 101510151015 34 999 1537 153315331533 STREET1344 134013401340 1015 999 834 830 520 GREEN WAY 9 1563 1559 1533 1531 1340 999999999 834834834 830830830 824 520520520 F 156315631563 155915591559 153115311531 999 834 830 824824824 520 514 1563 1559 1531 1314 1018 FIFTH824 820 514514514 131413141314 101810181018 820820820 514 20 1314 1009 1018 820 818 1110 637 510 202020 1310 100910091009 818818818 111011101110 637637637 510510510 20 151515 G 181818 7 131013101310 1300 1009 818 1110 637 510120112011201 1310 130013001300 15 18 777 1300 1201 7 1238 1011 1103 633 1119 10 1244 STREET123812381238 101110111011 810110311031103 633633633 111911191119 101010 124412441244 1242 1238 1016 1011 8108108101103 633 1119 10 1244 124212421242 101610161016 810 1242 1016 1222-1230 1007 STREET 16 1222-12301222-12301222-1230 1212 ST 100710071007 161616 1222-1230 121212121212 1007 16 1212 1014 1125 6 1523 1447 1200 101410141014 112511251125 1005 1104 1110 1118 666 152315231523 144714471447 120012001200 1014 1125 100510051005 110411041104 111011101110 111811181118 5 6 1523 1447 1200 1005 1104 712 1110 1115 1118 555 32 1435 845 712712712 111511151115 11 5 323232 143514351435 1050 845845845 712 1115 111111 32 1435 105010501050 845 11 6 30 209 1417 1409 1407 1010 1050 1000 1010 AVE 1108 666 LATHAM303030 28 209209209 141714171417 140914091409 140714071407 1405 101010101010 1122 100010001000 101010101010 1114 700 110811081108 30 282828 1417 1409 1407 140514051405 1401 112211221122 1000 700700700 28 24 1405 140114011401 1122 1118 111411141114 700 4 242424 22 1401 1337 1128-46 111811181118 1114 444 24 222222 18 133713371337 1335 1128-461128-461128-46 1118 1114 835 ST 1114 527 4 22 181818 1337 133513351335 1331 1323 1128-46 111411141114 1100 835835835 111411141114 527527527 519 511 18 16 1335 133113311331 1327 1325 132313231323 1321 1315 1114 110011001100 835 1114 527 519519519 511511511 161616 1331 132713271327 132513251325 1323 132113211321 131513151315 1100 825 1111 523 519 511 10 16 12 8 205 1327 1325 1321 1315 STREET 825825825 111111111111 523523523 101010 121212 8 8 8 205205205 825 1111 523 10 12 8 205 1345 1307 ST 134513451345 130713071307 1305 1303 COURT 638 634 1345 1307 130513051305 130313031303 1301 638638638 634634634 4 933 1305 1303 130113011301 638 634 1135 444 32 933933933 1301 113511351135 4 933 813 1135 1235 1225 813813813 1108 201 999 123512351235 1233 122512251225 1223 1221 813 110811081108 201201201 999999999 1235 123312331233 1225 122312231223122112211221 1219 809 1108 201 1313 999 1233 1223 1221 121912191219 1002 998 994 PL 809809809 43 1317 131313131313 1219 100210021002 998998998 994994994 992 809 131713171317 1313 1016 434343 1002 998 994 992992992 908 43 39 1317 1299 992 908908908 902 101610161016 393939 129912991299 1149 1143 908 902902902 894 1016 ST 39 37 901 1299 114911491149114311431143 902 894894894 890 373737 901901901 1149 1143 1137 894 890890890 606 1660 37 35 901 113711371137 890 888 606606606 166016601660 353535 31 921 1203 1137 1135 1133 888888888 882 606 1660 35 313131 27 STREET 921921921 120312031203 113511351135113311331133 1127 888 882882882 31 272727 1 921 1203 1135 1133 112711271127 1125 1121 882 27 25 1 1 1 1127 112511251125112111211121 1119 874 252525 1 908 938 1125 1121 111911191119 1117 874874874 866 1012 1109 25 908908908 938938938 1119 111711171117 1115 1111 874 866866866 101210121012 1104 110911091109 117 908 938 1117 111511151115 111111111111 1109 866 860 1012 110411041104 1109 117117117 1115 1111 1109110911091101 860860860 850 836 709 1104 524 117 936 1109110111011101 860 850850850 836836836 709709709 AVENUE526 524524524 1654 19 5 936936936 1101 990 850 846 836 1005 709 536 534 532 526526526 524 520 165416541654 191919 17 5 5 5 115 909 936 990990990 846846846 842 100510051005 536536536534534534532532532 526 520520520 1654 19 171717 11 5 115115115 220 909909909 910 990 846 842842842 1005 536 534 532 520 17 111111 115 220220220 909 910910910 FOURTH842 11 220 910 1003 637 512 100310031003 1006 637637637 516 5125125121105 917 1003 100610061006 637 516516516 512110511051105 917917917 918 1006 633 516 1105 1622 ST 917 918918918 930 816 1001 633633633 162216221622 1414 918 930930930 816816816 100110011001 633 1622 111 141414141414 930 816 1001 111111111 1414 915 812 111 1410 915915915 812812812 1015 141014101410 919 915 907 901 812 101510151015 1101 1410 919919919 907907907 901901901 1015 110111011101 ST 1618 25 109 912 924 1099 919 907 901 806 1015 1101 161816181618 252525 109109109 912912912 C 924924924 109910991099 1017 806806806 802 101510151015 1618 25 109 THIRD 912 924 COMMERCIAL1099 101710171017 1001 885 806 802802802 1015 31 922 1017 1009 100110011001 941 931 885885885 802 732 915 922922922 100910091009 1001 941941941 931931931 925 885 732732732 1312 915915915 922 1009 941 931 925925925 877 732 718 131213121312 915 920 925 909 877877877 718718718 716 1011 1312 920920920 909909909 897 877 875 871 718 716716716 101110111011 1016 107 920 909 905 897897897 875875875871871871 716 1011 101610161016 1606 107107107 1306 909 901 905905905 897 875 871 1016 160616061606 107 130613061306 909909909 901901901 905 881 1606 1306 909 916 901 881881881 869 710-712 900 916916916 881 869869869 861 710-712710-712710-712 704 1600 824 900900900 907 916 869 861861861 857 710-712 704704704 160016001600 1544 1540 105 824824824 900 907907907 861 857857857 851 704 1600 154415441544 154015401540 1536 105105105 824 907 938 857 851851851 1544 1540 153615361536 105 905 938938938 851 1536 1532 905905905 938 831 1651 153215321532 104 905 831831831 640 165116511651 1532 104104104 823 925 831 640640640 1012 1651 104 823823823 925925925 PL 835 640 638 101210121012 527 80 1405823 925 835835835 823 638638638 1012 527527527 80 80 80 103 140514051405 915 835 823823823 638 527 523 80 103103103 1405 901 915915915 823 819 523523523 103 821 901901901 STREET 915 819819819 817 523 519 821821821 901 819 817817817 813 519519519 515 48 821 1148 817 813813813 519 515515515 484848 1621 114811481148 813 515 511 48 162116211621 822 1321 1148 1100 914 511511511 1621 822822822 132113211321 110011001100 914914914 511 1515 822 1321 1100 914 807-811 1001 151515151515 807-811807-811807-811 980 729 100110011001 509 1515 827 807-811 801- 805 980980980 729729729 6101001 509509509 505 817 827827827 801-801-801- 805 805 805 980 729 610610610 509 505505505 202 1415 817817817 912 827 801- 805 610 505 501 141514151415 817 (911-926) 1030 912912912 705 501501501 202202202 1415 (911-926)(911-926)(911-926) 103010301030 912 709 705705705 703 1004 501 (911-926) 1030 927-931 970 709709709 705 703703703 100410041004 809 814814814 820820820 927-931927-931927-931 970970970 709 703 1004 44 809809809 814 820 715 444444 809 715715715 534 44 811 715 534534534 536 E 811811811 813 840 926 534STREET536536536 811 813813813 840840840(811-817) 848 926926926 960 536 532 813 840(811-817)(811-817)(811-817) 848848848 926 960960960 532532532 1007 55 855 (811-817) 848 960 532 528 520 100710071007 555555 818 855855855 528528528 520520520 1007 1601 55 810810810 818818818 855 844844844 528 520 160116011601 810 (711-731) 1205 844 514 1601 811 D (711-731)(711-731)(711-731) 120512051205 842 1117 902 514514514 805 811811811 809 (711-731) 1205 842842842 111711171117 902902902 911 939 514 512 1524 805805805 811 809809809 842 1117 902 844 ST 911911911 939939939 512512512 508 1005 40 152415241524 805 809 844844844 840 911 939 512 508508508 100510051005 404040 HAYES 1524 844 840840840 912 508 1005 40 1209 840 LOOTENS840 912912912 506 (611-649) 120912091209 840840840 912 506506506 806 812 (611-649)(611-649)(611-649) 1209 840 506 807 806806806 812812812 (611-649) 830 909 807807807 806 812 835 1115 830830830 909909909 1001 807 807 814 835835835 111511151115 830 909 917 100110011001 807807807 814814814 835 836 1115 CIJOS 812 917917917 1001 807 814 836836836 1115 812812812 910 917 34 805 836 111511151115 1101 812 910910910 343434 802 805805805 1115 110111011101 905 910 450 34 802802802 805 831 1101 905905905 450450450 30 802 831831831 832 905 910 450 303030 831 832832832 1033 910910910 915 30 1420 1412 832 103310331033 1003 910 915915915 35 430 142014201420 141214121412 840 828 1033 100310031003 915 353535 152 430430430 1450 1420 1412 803 840840840 (511-526) B 828828828 1003 906 35 152152152 430 145014501450 803803803 840 (511-526)(511-526)(511-526) 830 828 906906906 152 1450 803 (511-526) 823 830830830 999 810 903 906 823823823 830 999999999 810810810 903806903903 930 (411-432) 823 819 999 810 808 806806903806 930930930 1410 (411-432)(411-432)(411-432) 821 826 819819819 808808808 806 930 1410141014101406 801 (411-432) 821821821 826826826 819 808 615 1410140614061406 801801801 SECOND 821 822 826 615615615 406 1406 8011400 1320 (311-331) 822822822 901 615 406406406 140014001400 132013201320 (311-331)(311-331)(311-331) 822 813 901901901 902 1400 1320 (311-331) 813813813 901 902902902 406 404 813 902 TAMALPAIS 433 404404404 1314 820 545 433433433 404 131413141314 820820820 706 911 545545545 228 433 1314 1304 (211-221)(211-221)(211-221) 820 706706706 911911911 545 977 26 228228228 130413041304 706 509 262626 228 1515 1304 1304 (211-221) 509509509 977977977 26 151515151515 130413041304 816 811 523 509 977 330 1515 713 1304 816816816 811811811 812 901 523523523 330330330 713713713 840 816 811 812812812A 901901901 523 519 425 330 713 (111-117)840840840 809 812 901 519519519 425425425 326 (111-117)(111-117)(111-117)840 1214 809809809 519 21 425 326326326 (111-117) 121412141214 1212 812 809 4 907 212121 246246246 326 1214 121212121212 812812812 4 4 4 8 815 907907907 513 21 1417 1212 812 4 8 8 8 815815815 666 907 513513513 246 141714171417 RITTER8 815 666666666 513 SHAVER 1417 810 666 423 320 809 810810810 HETHERTON 505 423423423 320320320 809809809 810 905 914 505505505 920 FIRST 809 813 905905905 914914914 505 920920920 138 423 320 138138138 808 813813813 905 914 511 920 20 138 417 808808808 813 518 511511511 202020 417417417 804 808 518518518 511 20 417 314 310 804804804 1112 903 518 314314314 310310310 1401 111211121112 610 314 310 140114011401 1112 610610610 903903903 1401 ST 610 903 520 963 413 898 520520520 963963963

232 413413413 306 1102 804 809 898898898 IRWIN 520 963 232232232 JONES 110211021102 801 804804804 12 809809809 898 910 532

413 306306306 232 1102 801801801 804 121212 16 809 THIRD 910910910 532532532 AVE 306 801 12 161616 901 910 532

AVE 1309 16 901901901 516 15 407 304 1323 1315 130913091309 1307 1305 1301 901 516516516 151515 407407407 304304304 132313231323 131513151315 1309 130713071307 130513051305 130113011301 800 516 512 15 16 407 304 1323 1315 1307 1305 1301 800800800 512512512 161616 800 512 16 20 300 1201 202020 890 902 401 321 300300300 120112011201 BROOKS 20 890890890 902902902 4 401401401 321321321 300 16 1201 890 902 526 444 401 321 1295 747 724 24 534-536 526526526 4 315 700700700 717 129512951295 747747747 724724724 242424 703 534-536534-536534-536 530 526 912912912 315315315 717717717 1295 1217 1211 24 703703703 534-536 530530530 128 315 700 717 121712171217 1215 121112111211 703 530 522B 912 128128128 1217 121512151215 1211 1209 722 STREET 522B522B522B 510 313 128 313313313 16 1215 120912091209 722722722 522B 510510909510 11 313 311 1209 745 722 909510909909 111111 311311311 745745745 1115 28 909 11 125 311 745 111511151115 282828 522A 125125125 1115 28 522A522A522A 508

125 1 309 715 522A 508508508 MIRAMAR 3 111 309309309 715715715 1113 1111 836 508 333 1 309 621 715 111311131113 111111111111 836836836 826 3 712 714 720 1113 1111 836 826826826 621621621 712712712 714714714 720720720 1017 826 PL 712 714 720 101710171017 1015 2 ST 222 711 739 1017 101510151015 820 770 AVENUE 2 5 121212 711711711 739739739 1015 820820820 770770770 711 739 742 820 818 770 555 12 742742742 818818818 742 818 34 16 619619619 343434 718 34 440 3 51 161616 619 718718718 440440440 333 718 440 3 515151 3 628 333 628628628 706 1013 111 120 3 6 628 706706706 740 101310131013 1009 111111111 120120120 63 666 615 706 710 740740740 1013 100910091009 111 120 6 615615615 707 710710710 740 1009 851 636363 615 707707707 710 851851851 444 613 624624624 STREET 734 834834834 STREET 116116116 111 613613613 624 219 702702702 734734734 116 47 1 ST 219219219 702 474747 217 104

47 2 217217217 104104104 100 707 21 217 104 100100100 707707707

212121 222 WELCH 609 215 100 707 21 565656 609609609 620 215215215 ET 609 620620620 56 20 705 112 620 202020 705705705 112112112 64 209 20 18 14 705 720 102 106 112 646464 209209209 207 181818 16 141414 720720720 CLAYTON 18 161616 14 720 102102102 106106106 64 209 207207207 102 106 207 16 12 790 121212 790790790 AVE 605605605 12703 790 686868 111111111 605 614 211-213211-213211-213 703703703 68 111 211-213 703 475 27 108 115 614614614 475475475 272727 108108108 115115115 515 475 27 35 FRANCES22 20 515515515 108 115

353535 222222 202020 18 515 35 22 20 181818 16 14 612 LINCOLN 72 18 161616 141414 612612612 10 727272 16 14 603603603 612 72 119119119 603 76 119 109 107 700

47 767676 610 109109109 107107107 105 700700700 791 474747 RE 76 125 610610610 109 107 105105105 700 791791791 47 125125125 610 105 101 791 125 101101101 700 775 110 101 700700700 775775775 51 110110110 700 775 515151 110 51 104

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216216216 141414 12 240 142-148142-148142-148 216 14 121212 142-148 12 10 150 523 STREET101010 150150150 219 523523523 10 204 150 219219219 523 204204204 219 532 204 3 532532532 601601601 618 333 TERRACE 531 601 618618618 146 531531531 146146146 515515515 530530530 531 146 140 515 530 140140140 RO 140 517 WOODS 517517517 528528528 526 527527527 528 781781781 124 526526526 527 201 124124124 206 526 201201201 124 112 206206206 201 112112112 203 206 122 118 112 203203203 526 122122122 118118118 203 526526526 ROSS122 118 526 110 250 110110110 524 250250250 110 524524524 11 250 524 523 111111 527 523523523 ELFORD524 11 527527527 750 32 511 523 524524524 3 527 750750750 201 36 323232 511511511 524 3 3 3 750 201201201 363636 32 28 511 3 201 36 282828 200 28 24 20 153 200200200 242424 202020 4 201 153153153 200 24 20 16 4 4 4 201201201 153 145 161616 520 711 4 201 145145145 16 520520520 711711711 145 507 519519519 520 10 523523523 711 101010 147 507507507 519 523 STREET 10 147147147 507 520 10 147 520520520 12 520 139 137 135 121212 515 139139139 137137137 135135135 12 515515515 139 137 135 515 131 167 131131131 519 167167167 131 16 519519519 167 107 503 161616 519 125 107107107 503503503 513 12 16 125125125 107 503 513513513 125 513 514 163 150150150 512 514514514 163163163 127 39 512512512 163 127127127 393939 512 GRAND 127 103 39 14 517517517 103103103 103 509 510510ST510 141414 517 35 509509509 510 353535 33 509 142 35 333333 29 153 142142142 33 292929 522 153153153 142 29 27 508 522522522 153 272727 508508508 522 27 23 19 9 5 508 508 232323 191919 9 9 9 5 5 5 508508508 8 23 19 15 9 5 508 888 151 107 151515 8 151151151 107107107 15 513513513 421421421 513 108108108 STREET 506 516516516 518 145 108 502 506506506 516 518518518 50 145145145 502502502 506 518 50 50 50 145 502 110 50 110110110 ALBERT 110 320 105 501 338 320320320 105105105 501501501 22 12 116 338338338 320 105 417 501 22 22 22 14 116116116 338 334 417417417 22 14 14 14 12 8 655 116 334334334 106 417 504 14 12 12 12 8 8 8 655655655 334 332 106106106 504504504 12 8 4 655 139 332332332 328 106 504 4 4 4 WILLOW 139139139 332 328328328 4 375 139 328 ST AVENUE 375375375 322 375 135 322322322 135135135 322 103 104 413 135 314 103103103 104104104 413413413 PARK 314314314 310 103 104 413 501 STREET 314 310310310 501501501 310 412 501 DRIVE 131 409409409 412412412 131131131 101101101 STREET 409 101 240 234 LANE 127 240240240 238 234234234 127127127 240 238238238 234 127 238 230 412 230230230 TAYLOR 412412412 496 230 226 405 410 109 411 412 496496496 226226226 222 405405405 410410410 109109109 411411411 496 25 226 222222222 216 405 410 109 411 252525 341 222 216216216 2 25 15 773 341341341 216 214 17 222 151515 773773773 341 214214214 212 171717 11 2 15 773 757 214 212212212 17 111111 757757757 658 347 212 406 11 757 658658658 347347347 406406406 STREET 26 647 658 119119119 347 406 262626 647647647 321 647 119 337 321321321 337337337 321 401 21 31 337 BAYVIEW333 319 401401401 212121 313131 333333333 319319319 401 4 21 31 333 323 319 444 DUFFY 323323323 317 110 4 323 317317317 402 110110110 38 21 317 402402402 110 108 490 24 383838 CT 212121 111 402 108108108 106 18 490490490 242424 38 21 FRANCISCO 111111111 106 108 106106106 102 181818 490 24 111 106106106 106 102102102 18 106 102 272727 767767767 40 36 17 27 767 404040 363636 32 171717 76 40 633 35 36 323232 28 428 17 767676 633633633 353535 32 282828 24 428428428 76 27 633 35 28 242424 22 428 32 272727 24 222222 RD 27 239 22 323232 647 104 239239239 18 32 647647647 735 104104104 239 235 181818 23 647 735735735 104 235235235 5 18 232323 735 235 347 5 5 5 23 347347347 5 231 207 347 231231231 221 217 207207207 648 102 231 225 221221221 217217217 207 648648648 JORDAN 102102102 225225225 221 217 346 648 102 225 215 346346346 11 26 35 PLACE 654 215215215 346 7 111111 262626 353535 45 654654654 215 7 7 7 11 26 35 454545 654 7 45 34 343 121212 19 61 721 100100100 343434 343343343 12 191919 616161 721721721 100 42 252525 344344344STREET 30 424242 107 303030 650 STREET AVENUE42 36 25 344 107107107 30 363636 32 107 105 PL 20 637 715 650650650 36 323232 24 105105105 202020 637637637 715715715 650 32 242424 105 101 35 20 637 715 24 18 339 101101101 353535 33 11 37 181818 339339339 101 35 333333 27 17 11 373737 18 339 33 272727 171717 15 111111 417 15 37 28 340 27 23 17 151515 11 417417417 151515 282828 340340340 232323 15 417 15 45 28 340 23 19 454545 339 191919 8 51 45 16 339339339 19 888 14 515151 33 99 161616 339 8 141414 51 333333 999999 16 335335335 14 33 623623623 338338338 999 31 202020 623 262626 338 407 9 313131 20 97 51 26 215 337 3 407407407 979797 515151 215215215 337337337 3 3 3 407 635 97 51 215 337 3 635635635 636 33 WOODLAND 29 635 636636636 25 45 333333 331 334 10 292929 636 252525 454545 35 33 31 331331331 334334334 101010 29 25 45 353535 313131 331 334 10 35 31 25 252525 4 390 23 25 23 24 333 4 4 4 390390390 5 232323 93 232323 7 242424 333333333 334 4 390 555 23 939393 23 19 7 7 7 24 333 334334334 5 93 191919 15 11 7 332 334 10 15 628 19 151515 111111 332332332 OCTAVIA 101010 6 151515 628628628 15 11 327 332 48 16 10 6 6 6 15 628 327327327 484848 40 161616 6 215215215 327 331 48 404040 16 40 38 21 215 331331331 332 383838 32 2 WARNER 212121 20 331 332332332 38 323232 222 21 202020 328 332 32 28 2 629 53 21 91 20 328328328 282828 629629629 10 535353 212121 919191 323 328 327 28 629 620620620 53 STREET 21 323323323 327327327 ST 340 60 323 327 340340340 606060 15 340 151515 181818 324324324 87 MARIN STREET 324 622 878787 325 97 7 619 622622622 87 325325325 979797 777 619619619 622 321 325 97 5 7 619 57 585858 11 14 321321321 320 555 WOODLAND 575757 700 58 111111 141414 320320320 700700700 242 242242242 321 47 242 238 321321321 474747 DU 238238238 321 320 47 45 MARIPOSA 238 230 320320320 454545 43 230230230 317 320 45 434343 41 230 226 12 317317317 318 43 414141 LINDARO 601 52 226226226 121212 317 318318318 41 39 31 601601601 525252 226 7 12 318 393939 313131 601 DR 52 777 39 31 27 59 7 317 272727 23 595959 317317317 318 27 232323 21 59 210 206 317 318318318 23 212121 17 15 210210210 206206206 318 21 171717 151515 333 210 206 314314314 IVY LANE 17 15 333333333 204 333 SAN 204204204 4 136 311 314 204 444 136136136 128 311311311 200 4 136 128128128 311 200200200 128 615 200 313313313 C 11 615615615 309 310310310 111111 616616616 309309309 310 316 AVENUE 616161 146 316316316 61 600 146146146 311 316 600600600 146 308 311311311 600 122 308308308 311 RAFAEL122122122 114 308 122 114114114 112 305 304 56 114 112112112 565656 112 305305305 304304304 56 655 110 305 304 18 655655655 110110110 309 181818 19 655 110 309309309 64 36 18 191919 610 309 646464 60 363636 19 610610610 64 606060 36 610 60 285 48 44 40 285285285 MARTENS484848 444444 404040 285 301301301 304 302 48 44 40 301 304AVE304304 303303303 302302302

5 14 555 141414 14 201 585 201201201 585585585 201 585 Figure 4: City GIS-Map Guide Program. Sample location showing FEMA zone overlay. Blue area shows limits of FEMA Areas of Special Flood Hazard and hatched area shows Zone X (500-year)

C. San Rafael Creek - Canal Dredging Most of the Central San Rafael Basin drains into the San Rafael Creek. At one time, the San Rafael Creek existed as an open drainage channel westward as far as the Sun Valley and West End neighborhoods. This creek was also fed by tributaries (e.g., Mahon Creek) and bordered by low-lying marshland. In fact, most of Downtown San Rafael, the Woodland Avenue area, portions of the Bret Harte neighborhood and Canal neighborhood were once marshland that bordered and supported the creek. While filled, the lower elevation of these former marshland areas places much of the basin in the FEMA Areas of Special Flood Hazard. For this reason, much of the Central San Rafael Basin is vulnerable to sea level rise as shown in the BCDC prediction maps. The San Rafael Creek is a critical element in providing adequate drainage to the Central San Rafael Basin; it collects most of the surface water runoff from Downtown San Rafael and the bordering neighborhoods and provides a direct deposit of this runoff to the Bay.

Over time, the San Rafael Creek (as well as Mahon Creek) has been filled or realigned, and only limited segments remain as a surface drainage feature west of US 101. The one segment of this creek that remains as a continuous open channel is the segment east of US 101. Further, the portions of this creek that are east of the Grand Avenue bridge have remained navigable. Until the last two decades, the segments of the San Rafael Creek from the Grand Avenue bridge to the open Bay (referenced as the San

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Rafael Canal) were dredged on a fairly regular basis. Available federal and state funding (including past funding sources such as the former San Rafael Redevelopment Agency), as well as available upland sites for disposing dredged spoils made it possible to conduct regular dredging and maintain the sediment levels in the Canal to ensure navigability. However, over time, funding sources for dredging have dwindled. Further, upland sites for spoils disposal are scarce, forcing other costly disposal options (e.g., selected deep water disposal sites in the Bay region).

In 2011-2012, the San Rafael Creek was dredged at a cost of approximately $2.0 million. This cost covered dredging, spoils disposal, as well as surveying and permitting ($500K). The project was fully funded by the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). Because of sediment contamination, a complete dredging of the inner canal was not possible and dredge spoils were required to be disposed at an upland landfill. As a result of this last dredging process, the Corps has reported that future dredging of the canal will be challenging because of limited funding resources.

The San Rafael Canal is an important resource that needs to be considered in long-term planning of drainage in the Central San Rafael Basin. While continued dredging of the Canal may not be an effective tool to combat sea level rise, it is critical for boat navigability and basin drainage. Lastly, depending upon the level of contamination for use, the spoils dredged from the Canal may prove to be valuable for local use such as: a) raising levees; b) wetland restoration; or c) other outboard adaptive strategies.

D. SMART Station Area Plans In 2012, the City prepared “vision” documents for the area around the two planned SMART stations, one in Downtown San Rafael and one at the Civic Center. The San Rafael Downtown Station Area Plan (2012) and the San Rafael Civic Center Station Area Plan (2012) present a number of recommended actions to study transportation and land use improvements within a one-half-mile radius of the SMART station. Both Downtown and Civic Center include low-lying areas that are vulnerable to sea level rise. For this reason, both plans acknowledge sea level rise as a planning challenge and include a recommendation for the City to monitor sea level rise, plan for shoreline defense, develop a program of levee analysis and prepare a vulnerability assessment.

IV. WHAT HAS BEEN STUDIED AND EXPLORED IN THE BAY AREA AND BEYOND

A. Studies and Assessment Efforts Completed to Date Since the 2006 publication of the BCDC sea level prediction maps, there have been numerous reports and studies commissioned and completed to address climate adaptation for sea level rise. This section summarizes what has been prepared that is relative to the Bay Area and may be applicable and valuable for long-term planning in San Rafael. This section presents these studies and resource documents in chronological order.

In 2009, BCDC, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve presented, Preparing for Sea Level Rise: Planning Sustainable Communities, which recommended the inclusion of the Marin bayside into the “Baylands Corridor” and the need to develop detailed mapping and analysis for determining vulnerability and strategies for long- term adaptation.

In 2009, the County of Marin adopted the Marin Countywide Plan, which includes mapping, analysis, and policies to limit development and access, and control shoreline modification among other strategies. While the Marin Countywide Plan “Baylands Corridor” designation and policies are primarily focused on the protection of biological resources, water quality and flood protection, the issue of sea level rise is inherent in the Plan. County of Marin has indicated that the Baylands Corridor will likely be a good

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planning tool to address sea level rise and adaptation. County staff will be reviewing the Baylands Corridor designation and policies for this purpose.

In 2009, “SPUR,” a Bay Area-based, member-supported non-profit organization completed its first report on the topic of sea level rise. Entitled, Strategies for Managing Sea Level Rise, this report weighs the advantages and disadvantages of seven strategies for managing sea level rise. The seven adaptive strategies assessed are barriers, coastal armoring, elevated development, floating development, floatable development, living structures, and managed retreat. See the section below entitled, Strategies in Managing Sea Level Rise for a description of these strategies.

In 2010, the City of Hayward contracted with Philip Williams & Associates, Ltd (PWA) to conduct a Preliminary Study of the Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Resources of the Hayward Shoreline. The study includes a map and analysis of each water management function, described by location and includes the types of and proximity to hazards, mode of failure, severity and risk of damage, and adaptation strategies. It also identified three possible adaptation strategies: “hold-the-line” (levee construction), realignment (moves levee inland), and gradual steeping (provides a mechanism to increase surface elevation at about the rate of sea level rise). The study found realignment and gradual steeping strategies preferable adaptation methods because of the various implementation benefits. Following these results, the study identified next steps for Hayward including a more detailed assessment of coastal hazards to specific infrastructure to gauge vulnerability based on the proximity of future erosion and flooding hazard zones to facilities.

In 2011, BCDC, MTC and the State Department of Transportation (Caltrans) commissioned the preparation of Adapting to Rising Tides: Transportation Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Project (with technical assistance of AECOM, consultants). Known as the “ART Project,” this pilot study includes a partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Service Center (NOAA), with funding from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and ICLEI. The ART Project assessed the highly varied and diverse shoreline in Alameda County (Emeryville to Union City) defining five shoreline categories based on their primary physical characteristics, functions and abilities to inhibit inland inundation. The five categories are: engineered flood protection structures (e.g., levees, sea walls), engineered shoreline protection structures (e.g., bulkheads, revetments), non-engineered berms (e.g., salt pond and agricultural berms), wetlands, and natural non-wetland shorelines (e.g., beaches, cliffs). The following are two fundamental “take-aways” from the ART Project:

 The shoreline categories developed for Alameda County reasonably encompass the range of shoreline types found throughout the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area.

 Non-engineered berms are common around the San Francisco Bay shoreline. Non-engineered berms protect marshes, ponds, and agricultural areas from wave erosion and provide flood protection to inland developments. These berms are often comprised of Bay mud that has been excavated from the Bay floor and piled and/or stacked in a mound. Many non-engineered berms have been in place around the Bay for several decades, with some dating back over 100 years. Most berms are periodically maintained to compensate for settlement, erosion, failure and rising sea levels. Several areas around the Bay contain extensive networks of non-engineered berms that provide multiple lines of flood defense between the Bay and developed areas. However, the non-engineered nature of their construction typically classifies them as highly vulnerable to sea level rise and seismic events.

The ART Project “template” has been structured to implement a five-phase planning process:

1. Scope & Organize. Identify and convene partners and stakeholders; define planning area 2. Assess. Inventory and assess conditions. 3. Plan. Identify appropriate adaptation strategies 4. Implement & Monitor.

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Progress has been made on the ART Project. In 2012, a Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Report was completed. More recently, in December 2013, BCDC published two documents: 1) ART Vulnerability & Risk: The Define Step; and 2) ART Developing on Adaptation Response: The Plan Step.

In 2011, “SPUR” completed a second report on sea level rise entitled, Climate Change hits home: Adaptation strategies for the San Francisco Bay Area, which reviews sea level rise by sector impacts. This report recommends conducting shoreline risk assessments and preparing coastal inundation maps while revising local general plans so that policies relating to climate change hazards and sea level rise are included.

In 2012, the California Emergency Management Agency, California Natural Resources Agency, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency developed, California adaptation planning guide: Planning for Adaptive Communities. The guide recommends assessing climate change impacts, identifying areas most vulnerable and developing reasonable and rational risk reduction strategies at both a regional and local level. The guide also includes nine steps for conducting a vulnerability assessment, which are listed as follows:

Phase I- Identifying Conditions and Risks Step 1. Exposure: What climate change effects will a community experience? Step 2. Sensitivity: What aspects of a community (functions, structures, and populations) will be affected? Step 3. Potential Impacts: How will climate change affect the points of sensitivity? Step 4. Adaptive Capacity: What is or can be currently done to address the impacts? Step 5. Risk and Onset: How likely are the impacts and how quickly will they occur?

Phase II- Developing Adaptive Strategies Step 6. Prioritize Adaptive Needs: Which impacts require actions to address them? Step 7. Identify Strategies: Which strategies should be pursued to address adaptation needs? Step 8. Evaluate and Prioritize Strategies: Which strategies should be implemented first? Step 9. Phase and Implement: How can the strategies be funded, staffed, and monitored?

In 2013, the North Bay Watershed Association (NBWA) commissioned PRBO Conservation Science, environmental consultants to prepare Adapting to Sea Level Rise Along the North Bay Shoreline. PRBO had previously developed and published the Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marsh Climate Smart Planning Tool (2011), which NBWA had commissioned PRBO to use in the North Bay shoreline study. This report presents excellent information that is specific to North Bay conditions. The purpose of the North Bay shoreline report is to demonstrate how the PRBO planning tool could be used by agencies responsible for coastal areas in North San Francisco Bay to develop adaptive management plans. Two NBWA workshops were held that brought together 50 managers, scientists, and other stakeholders from groups in the North Bay to identify what information they needed, but currently lacked, to make decisions. As a result of feedback gathered in these workshops and a pre-workshop survey, the NBWA established the following goals for this study:

 Address the ecosystem value of tidal marshes by estimating the amount by which they attenuate incoming waves;

 Analyze tidal marshes and other sites of interest in the North Bay region by calculating projected marsh composition, wave attenuation, and tidal marsh bird abundance

 Add summary reports containing data for 344 tidal marshes across San Francisco Bay to PRBO’s sea-level rise decision support tool (http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=marsh- reports); and

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 Produce more detailed vulnerability assessments (including estimates of adaptive capacity) for three case study areas selected as being of high interest to workshop participants: Inner Richardson Bay, Gallinas Creek, and Novato Creek.

PRBO had previously produced models of sea-level rise in San Francisco Bay that looked at projected tidal elevations five times over the next 100 years (2030, 2050, 2070, 2090, and 2110). Uniquely, these models include not only the rate of sea-level rise but also the rate of marsh accretion due to the deposition of suspended sediment and organic material. PRBO has found that marsh accretion serves to offset the effects of sea-level rise, as it causes increases in marsh elevation that can potentially match losses due to sea-level rise.

In 2013, the environmental firm of ESA-PWA completed Analysis of the costs and benefits of using tidal marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay, assigned financial value to tidal marshes for restoration cost-benefit analysis. The goal of the Marin Conservation League and the San Francisco Bay Area Wetlands Restoration Project is to restore at least 100,000 acres of wetlands within the footprint of the Bays original tidal marshes as 92% have been lost. The report indicated two cost effective strategies in adapting to sea level rise:

 Retreat- Levee Relocation. The first is a levee and wetland strategy, which suggests moving the levee to a new location further inland. The total cost for a new levee is over $12 million per mile (over 50 years), while restoring a 200-foot-wide marsh cost about $6.3 million per mile.

Figure 4- Retreat- Levee Relocation (Source: ESA-PWA, 2013)

 “Horizontal Levee.” The second strategy is a horizontal levee shoreline management system, which has an estimated total cost of $6.3 million per mile (over 50yrs). The horizontal levee shoreline management system (levee, wetland and upland “ecotone slope”) would increase in elevation over time, enhance the ability of the flood risk management system to keep pace with sea level rise, and reduce damage to the levee thus reducing maintenance costs. The report demonstrated that complete tidal marshes have a better ability to provide a broad range of ecosystem and economic services; yet if restoration is delayed for too long, it may be unable to keep pace with expected sea level increases and fail to provide the desired benefits.

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Figure 5- Horizontal Levee (Source: ESA-PWA, 2013)

Figure 6- “Horizontal Levee” (Source: ESA-PWA, 2013)

Lastly, in 2013, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission and Corte Madera Baylands contracted with ESA-PWA to prepare, Conceptual Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategy for the Corte Madera Baylands. The study reviewed existing literature, utilized field measurements, and one- and two- dimensional modeling to determine current tidal marsh and future response to sea level rise. A geomorphic conceptual model was used to identify alternative management measures for key processes of Baylands evolution and resilience. Currently, waves entering Corte Madera Bay were reduced in height and energy by roughly 80% by the time they reached the marsh edge. Both historic and restored tidal marshes are keeping pace with sea level rise; however, modeling studies suggest that they will not keep pace with accelerated sea level rise. The Corte Madera shoreline has already retreated inland by an average of 485 feet over the past 153 years and marsh habitats will continue to downshift until they are eventually lost and convert to mudflat before the end of the century. Further research is necessary to determine how much increase in sea level rise the marshes can handle.

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B. Lessons Learned from Completed Assessments A review of sea level rise literature offers regional and national lessons that can be applied at the local level. The following section details recommendations on choosing sea level rise predictions, areas and infrastructure of concern, partnerships and communication.

Sea Level Rise predictions and models for California are between 10-17” by 2050 and 31-69” by 2100 (PWA, 2010), (ICLEI, 2012), (ESA PWA, 2013a). Locally, the Corte Madera Baylands study discussed above projected sea level rise rates are 6” by 2030, 11” by 2050, and 36” by 2100 (ESA PWA 2013b). Due to the uncertainty in identifying the exact quantity of sea level rise, regional studies suggest developing sea level rise models through an inclusive public process (PWA, 2010), and creating several sea level rise scenarios that include considerations for the amount of sea level rise, and variability (ICLEI, 2012). Overall, regional studies recognize an increase in depth, duration, and frequency in baylands inundation and erosion (SFBCDC and ESA PWA, 2013), with the greatest threat being from storms that occur in tandem with high tides (ESA-PWA, 2013).

The City of San Rafael has one main transportation corridor that is threatened by sea level rise and inundation. According to the 2011 SPUR Report, Climate Change hits home: Adaptation strategies for the San Francisco Bay Area, about half of the roads in the Bay Area are at risk of inundation and 60% of the state’s railroads are at risk of a 100-year flood event. Additionally, wastewater treatment plants on the shoreline, such as the Central Marin Sanitation Agency and the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District, are vulnerable to a predicted 55” rise in sea level. The development of a countywide adaptation plan is recommended to ensure projects are resilient to predicted 2100 sea level rise.

Regional partnerships have developed to address and adapt to sea level rise. BCDC, ABAG and the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve have developed a plan to help protect the Baylands corridor through mapping, analysis, and policies to limit development, access, and shoreline modifications among other measures. Additionally, the California Emergency Management Agency provides tools to increase partnerships such as Cal Adapt (cal-adapt.org), which provides local profiles, climate change tools, data and other resources. Furthermore, the California Emergency Management Agency, the California Natural Resource Agency, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency have indicated the importance of engaging a wide variety of stakeholders in order for vulnerability assessment strategies to be adopted, equitable, and implemented efficiently (2012).

To increase communication of sea level rise measures the Bay Area Climate & Energy Resilience Project calls for a Bay Area Campaign. The Campaign would make the case for climate change adaptation work and would tell a single science-based story explaining the impacts of climate change. The campaign should emphasize short term and long term benefits and demonstrate why it is not just a government issue (Riordan, Bruce, n.d). In developing the campaign, establishing a climate change adaptation public outreach and education program is necessary because this campaign requires community support so the potential consequences are understood. It is recommended that communication focus on raising public awareness to the potential threats of climate change and the community benefits of taking action to achieve tangible outcomes.

C. Approaches and Tools to Conducting a Vulnerability Assessment There is a wealth of sea level rise vulnerability assessment studies. Regionally and around the world, organizations have conducted assessments to better understand the impacts and possible strategies in addressing sea level rise vulnerabilities. The following is a description of the various approaches used in determining vulnerability and categorizing risk:

 Spatial Assessment of Impacts on Environmental and Socioeconomic Systems. In 1999, Klein, R. and Nicholls, R. focused on biogeophysical affects when conducting a vulnerability assessment. Their report, Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change, focused on

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knowing the spatial and temporal dynamics of biogeophysical affects (flood frequency, erosion, inundation, rising water tables, saltwater intrusion, and biological effects) that trigger impacts and recommended including anticipated impacts and available adaptation options as well as environmental and socioeconomic systems.

 Map-Based Assessment and Inventory of Watershed. In 2012, the engineering firm of Aldaron Laird Trinity Associates created a GIS database to inventory and map existing shoreline conditions, assesses existing shoreline vulnerability, and identifies land uses and infrastructure that could be affected in Humboldt Bay. In the report, Humboldt Bay: shoreline inventory, mapping and sea level rise vulnerability assessment, the inventory included the location of tidal and upland boundary, distribution of shoreline attributes, presence of water control structures, and salt marsh. The database analysis determined that dikes are actively eroding, unmaintained, or with surfaces that are regularly overtopped. Previous fortification and rehabilitation of dikes did not offer protection from rising sea levels above 3-6 feet, with a 6-foot rise in water levels, concluding that nearly 94% of the dikes would fail to hold back rising tidewater.

 Participatory Citizen Engagement and Capacity-Building. A participatory approach has also been the focus of two sea level rise vulnerability assessments. The first study was conducted in 2011 by the UNHabitat Cities and Climate Change Initiative, Negombo, Sri Lanka: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. The purpose of the participatory approach was to build the citizen capacity to address city vulnerability to climate change scenarios and develop adaptation strategies. Data was collected through focus group discussions, interviews, field and participatory mapping, and GPS surveys. The study attempted to relate global predictions using local accounts of historic data and previous events to emphasize the evidence of climate change impacts in the city. This process was chosen to enable increased mobilization of effective local actions. In 2012, ICLEI and the Local Governments for Sustainability utilized a participatory approach to engage multiple stakeholders in developing Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategy for San Diego Bay. A steering committee was organized to list guiding principles and develop milestones and deliverables. Multiple workshops and subgroup meetings were held. An adaptation working group was formed with representatives from public agencies and provided opportunities for stakeholder engagement, outreach and education to build capacity while promoting a region research agenda.

 Sector Vulnerability Analysis. The 2009 and 2011 SPUR reports (discussed above) reviewed sea level rise vulnerabilities by sector and created a storm vulnerability index (authored by Santos, M., Rio, L. & Benavente, J.). The index provides a rapid assessment of vulnerability and exposure levels and is based on location to pin-point areas of action (2013).

The aforementioned approaches demonstrate useful practices that may be adopted for the City of San Rafael’s sea level rise vulnerability assessment. The general message in these approaches is that there is not one approved method for conducting a sea level rise vulnerability assessment. However, it is important that the assessment method meet the goals and needs of the community being assessed.

D. Strategies in Managing Sea Level Rise Based on the results of various vulnerability assessments, several agencies have created a list of possible strategies in managing sea level rise. The California Emergency Management Agency, California Natural Resources Agency, & FEMA provide examples of management actions with descriptions, factors to consider, sources of information, examples of applications, funding sources, sector overlaps and co- benefits detailed by sector in their report, California adaptation planning guide: identifying adaptation strategies (2012). The following list includes recommendations dealing specifically with sea level rise.

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 Review any existing communitywide health assessments to evaluate their responsiveness to climate change impacts.

 Utilize mapping technologies to identify vulnerable neighborhoods show differential exposures to the health damaging impacts and can be examined from a geographical equity perspective with GIS.

 Refine emergency preparedness and response to address health impacts. Incorporate climate change risks into existing emergency preparedness plans and designs. Public health agencies should evaluate proposed/implemented climate adaptation strategies related to public health.

 Require accounting of sea level rise in all applications for new development in shoreline areas.

 Preserve undeveloped and vulnerable shorelines.

 Develop coordinated plans for mitigating future flood, landslide, and related impacts through concurrent adoption of updated general plan safety elements and local hazard mitigation plans.

 Update general plan elements to reduce potential losses of life and property from existing and increased flooding and landslide risks.

 Implement AB 167 (2002) requiring flood hazard information in the local general plan.

 Restore existing flood control and riparian corridors. Convert concrete-lined channels to soft bottomed waterways, install landscaping on embankments to slow flood water, provide natural planting to encourage biodiversity and build retention basins for percolation into aquifers.

 Implement general plan safety elements through zoning and subdivisions practices that restrict development in floodplain and landslide hazard areas. Minimize or avoid development in 100- year floodplain or landslide areas.

 Update plans that manage community infrastructure systems to include assessments of climate change impacts on community infrastructure.

 Create a “hot spots” map that identifies critical locations in infrastructure systems with economic risks and costs.

 Use low impact development stormwater practices in areas where storm sewers may be impaired by high water due to sea level rise or flood waters.

 Conduct an assessment to identify stormwater outfalls most likely to be flooded.

Additionally, as briefly discussed above, the 2009 SPUR report Strategies for Managing Sea Level Rise identified seven strategy measures to consider for long-term shoreline protection. These strategies are discussed below, which have their advantages and disadvantages:

 Barrier- a large dam, gate, or lock that manages tidal flows in and out of the Bay- it protects a large area of land in a single sweep with no social equity issues; however, they are expensive and ecologically damaging and they may not work.

 Coastal Armoring- linear protection such as levees and seawalls that fix the shoreline in it current place- can be used in combination with other strategies; however, it is a short term solution requiring costly annual maintenance and regular monitoring. Additionally, armored shorelines are more vulnerable to erosion and increase erosion of nearby beaches.

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 Elevated Development- raising the height of land or existing development and protecting it with coastal armoring- allows structures to be built in vulnerable areas; however, this is a short-term strategy.

 Floating Development- structures that float on the surface of the water or may be floated during a flood- is largely invulnerable to changing tides, but structures do not work well in places subject to wind and wave action from storms.

 Floodable Development- structures that are designed to withstand flooding or to retain stormwater- is designed to resist damage with retention areas for ocean surges or heavy rainfall, catch water and slowly releasing it. This strategy is experimental and polluted stormwater is a public health hazard that requires combined sewer systems and new treatment facilities to ensure the released water meets water quality standards.

 Living Shorelines- wetlands are the natural shoreline formation and absorb floods, slow erosion, provide habitat, and are essential for estuarine health- requires at least 100,000 acres of tidal wetlands and the San Francisco Bay currently has 73,000 acres.

 Managed Retreat- the planned abandonment of threatened areas near the shoreline and is used when other efforts have become too expensive or are thought to be a losing battle- minimizes human suffering and is less expensive than armoring strategies, but it causes a loss of coastal property values, legal and equity issues and may require significant clean-up costs.

Some of these strategies may or may not be suitable for the Marin County Bay shoreline because of cost, environmental factors, existing development and feasibility.

E. Funding Sources and Regulatory Requirements

Funding Sources and Prerequisites There is one important factor about certain funding sources and prerequisites for grant qualification. In order to qualify for some grants, the City must have an adopted Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, which typically includes measures for emergency preparedness and operations. Hazard mitigation is “any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards. A hazard mitigation plan identifies the hazards a community or region faces, assesses their vulnerability to the hazards and identifies specific actions that can be taken to reduce the risk from the hazards.” (ABAG, 2013) The Federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) outlines a process which cities, counties, and special districts can follow to develop a Hazard Mitigation Plan. Development of this plan is a requirement for certain benefits from CalEMA and FEMA. The City of San Rafael prepared and received State-adoption of a Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan in the mid-2000s. However, these plans must be renewed every five years. Given the age of this plan, it may not be adequate to qualify for all available grant opportunities. A review and update of the City’s Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan should be included on the list of ‘next steps.’

The following is a list of funding sources used and referred to in the sea level rise literature provided in this paper. Some of these sources might be available for countywide or local sea level rise planning and study.

 U.S Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): is the primary federal agency funding shoreline restoration projects limited to large-scale structural alternatives. All projects funded by the USACE require reconnaissance and feasibility studies before implementation to determine

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whether a federal interest exists in the project. For more information see http://www.usace.army.mil/. ▪ Section 14 Emergency stream bank and shore erosion, maximum federal contribution $1million ▪ Section 204 Beneficial uses of dredged material, maximum federal contribution for project development and construction $5 million. ▪ Section 206 Aquatic ecosystem restoration, maximum federal contribution is $5million

 Government Issue (GI): funding requires congressional authorization and includes four phases: reconnaissance, feasibility, pre-construction engineering and design, and construction.

 California Emergency Management Agency and FEMA: provides grants for hazard mitigation including climate-related hazards planning. For more information see http://www.calema.ca.gov/LandingPages/Pages/Grants-and-Funding.aspx.

 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service: requires a 50% match, normally, and federally-listed threatened or endangered species require a minimum of 25% match. For more information see http://www.fws.gov/grants/.

 California Coastal Conservancy: funds pre-project feasibility studies, property acquisition, planning, environmental review, construction, monitoring, and in limited cases, maintenance. Previous study projects include a consideration of sea level rise scenarios (2050-2100) to assess project vulnerability and reduce expected risks and increase resiliency to sea level rise. For more information see http://scc.ca.gov/category/grants/.

 North Bay Watershed Association: facilitates partnerships that promote the stewardship of the North Bay Watershed resources and has funded 17 projects totaling $393,000 from 2008 to 2012. For more information see http://www.nbwatershed.org/.

In addition, the following funding sources should be explored for local sea level rise planning and study:

 One Bay Area Grant (OBAG): Grants available to Priority Development Areas (PDA) for planning and transportation/infrastructure projects. The Downtown San Rafael PDA would be eligible.

 Marin County Measure A: Marin County Measure A is a temporary ¼-cent sales tax increase that will protect the natural places, local parks, and family farms. The Measure A tax is intended to be used for the following purposes: . Protect streams, baylands, natural areas, and wildlife habitat . Manage vegetation to preserve biodiversity and reduce wildfire risk . Protect water quality by conserving open space and other natural lands that feed our lakes, streams, lagoons, and baylands . Protect and preserve Marin County farms and ranches . Improve public access and recreational opportunities by maintaining and enhancing walking, hiking, biking and equestrian trails

Fifteen percent of the Measure A tax that is collected is made available to cities, towns, and special districts to manage their parks, nature preserves, recreation programs and vegetation to reduce wildfire risk. Locally, there are competing needs and tradeoffs that must be weighed in allocating these tax dollars. In San Rafael, the tax dollars have been allocated to public park improvements and public open space management. Use of Measure A funds may be appropriate to consider addressing sea level rise (either for assessment purposes or adaptation) on publicly- owned lands. However, such projects would have to compete with the other public park and open space projects.

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 City of San Rafael – Long-Range Planning Support - General Plan 2020 Maintenance Fund: The revenue stream for this fund is a surcharge on all building permits. This fund is used to implement and manage the San Rafael General Plan 2020. As the Sustainability Element of the General Plan 2020 includes programs to support preparation of a vulnerability assessment, levee analysis and sea level monitoring and planning, this fund might be suitable to subsidize the implementation of these programs.

Regulatory Requirements The following is a general list of regulatory requirements and/or clearances that may aid in the development of sea level rise adaptation strategies and were mentioned in the sea level rise literature.

 California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA): the 2010 CEQA Guidelines amendments states, “The EIR should evaluate any potentially significant impacts of locating development in other areas susceptible to hazardous conditions as identified in authoritative hazard map, risk assessments or in land use plans addressing such hazards areas.” While an analysis of sea level rise is not mandated under the CEQA Guidelines, inclusion of this topic in environmental documents is advisable. On projects that are in low-lying areas or close to the shoreline, it has been the City of San Rafael policy to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise on a project through the environmental review process.

 Executive Order S-13-08: planning construction projects in vulnerable areas must consider a range of sea level rise scenarios.

 BCDC San Francisco Bay Plan: new climate change policies will affect design and siting requirements for some projects requiring permits from the BCDC. Any construction work that is conducted within the Bay or on upland areas that are within 100 feet of the shoreline are subject to a BCDC permit.

 Clean Water Act Section 401: requires water quality certification (from the regional water board) before a federal agency (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) can issue a permit or license for an activity that may result in water discharge.

 Rivers and Harbors Act Section 10: requires authorization from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for the construction of any structure in or over any navigable water as well as the excavation/dredging, deposition of material, obstruction or alteration in these waters.

 National Historic Preservation Act Section 106: requires Federal agencies to take into account the effects of their undertakings on historic resources.

 Federal Endangered Species Act Section 7: requires all federal agencies to consult with the National Marine Fisheries Service or the United States Fish and Wildlife Service if they are proposing an action that may affect listed species or their designated habitat.

 Porter-Cologne Water Quality Act: gives the State Water Resources Control Board the ultimate authority over State water rights and water quality policy, while establishing Regional Water Quality Control Boards to oversee water quality at the local/regional level.

 California Endangered Species Act: protects and preserves all native species and their habitats, threatened with extinction or experiencing a significant decline that could lead to a threatened or endangered designation.

 California Fish and Wildlife Code Section 1602: requires any person, state or local governmental agency, or public utility to notify CDFW before beginning any activity that will substantially divert

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or obstruct the natural flow of, change or use any material from, or deposit/dispose of debris, waste, or other material in any river, stream or lake.

 Magnusen-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act: provides for the conservation and management of fisheries.

Please note that the above list may not be all-inclusive. There may be other agencies involved in the regulatory process for adaptation work that is completed in tidelands (e.g., State of California State Lands Commission) and navigable channels (e.g., State of California Department of Boating and Waterways).

V. CURRENT STUDIES AND STRATEGIES UNDERWAY IN MARIN

A. Richardson Bay Pilot Program In 2010, the Marin County Department of Public Works initiated a pilot program in the Richardson Bay. Rather than focusing on assessing vulnerability, the pilot program employed actual engineering concepts at bay front locations along the Richardson Bay. The goals of the pilot program have been to: a) provide the education and engineering basis for adaptation planning; b) describe options along with their opportunities and constraints; c) determine costs; d) anticipate impacts; e) identify and plan for permitting; and f) prepare for grants as they become available.

Part of the pilot program effort has been the Aramburu Beach/Island Restoration Project, which was built in 2011-2012. The first demonstration project of its kind in the San Francisco Bay, it is designed to test natural shoreline approaches to wind and wave erosion, as well as sea level rise. The demonstration project involves the construction of a gravel/cobble beach with a sandy foreshore, as well as the use of wood micro groins (tree stumps). This project is currently being monitored.

Figure 7: Aramburu Beach/Island Restoration Project 2012 (Source: Marin Co. Public Works Dept.)

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B. C-SMART The Marin County western coastline is predicted to be subject to combined effects of sea level rise, more intense storms, extreme high tides and more coastal erosion. The State of California has invited local governments to apply for funding support to begin to understand, assess and prepare for these possibilities. The County of Marin, in partnership with affected local communities and leading organizations working on these issues, has proposed “C-SMART” (Collaboration on Sea-level Marin: Adaptation Response Team) to begin the process of responding to this challenge. C-SMART is overseen by the Marin County Community Development Agency. The C-SMART team includes the Marin County Department of Public Works, Office of Emergency Services, the County Counsel’s office, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary, the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. National Park Service, Point Blue Conservation Science, the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the Coravai research and consulting firm.

In November 2013, the California Ocean Protection Council (OPC) awarded $1.3 million to seven local governments, which includes a $250,000 grant to a C-SMART. The project will evaluate the potential risks to homes, businesses, public facilities – including Highway 1 – as well as coastal resources such as shoreline wetlands, beaches and recreational areas that could be subject to inundation and damage from extreme storm surge events and projected sea level rise.

While C-SMART is not relevant to the San Rafael bayfront, the formula, process and output of this effort may be useful for future planning along the Bay shoreline. The take-aways include: a) assembling the right team for this project; b) finding the funding sources to conduct the project; and c) developing the appropriate scope for the study.

C. Marin Climate & Energy Partnership (MCEP) Efforts Efforts are underway to coordinate a county-wide approach to adaptation to Sea Level Rise (SLR). The Marin Climate & Energy Partnership (MCEP), a consortium of all Marin cities and some other agencies in Marin working on climate projects, in December 2013, convened a meeting of entities on behalf of the ABAG Joint Policy Committee (JPC). The intent of the meeting was to identify the major projects and priorities in Marin County that the JPC could support through a planned resource hub, which would offer financial, technical, and informational resources and guidance to local efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. A major discussion point was adaptation and sea level rise, and representatives from the County were there to offer insights on the projects they are involved with in the county regarding vulnerability assessments and other planning programs. MCEP has a goal to understand the current state of planning with regard to adaptation and SLR in order to become “grant ready” in 2014 to augment the efforts in the most efficient way.

D. Southern Marin (Vulnerability Assessment) Pilot Program The County of Marin is implementing a vulnerability assessment pilot program for Tamalpais Valley and Marin City entitled, Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, Resilience and adaptation: How can we best prepare to meet the challenges ahead. Initiated and sponsored by Marin County Supervisor Kate Sears, the project seeks to address how climate change impacts of sea level rise and storm events will affect these southern Marin communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and economy and the strategies to pursue to reduce and manage these risks. The project area focuses on the portion of Mill Valley that touches Richardson Bay at the SASM Sewage Treatment Plan, continues along Shoreline Highway to Tamalpais Valley, an then south to Marin City. The area was selected for its diverse shoreline features, the presence of a regionally-significant transportation infrastructure that includes US101 and State Highway 1, as well as a wide variety of public, private, commercial and recreational assets.

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While this pilot program primarily uses the BCDC ART Project template, the unique approach to this pilot program is that there is the commitment to engage the entire community through outreach in order to educated, share data and information and obtain feedback. Using a “grassroots” approach, it is the intent of this program to ultimately develop relevant adaptation strategies with the assistance of the community. As a pilot program, it is hopeful that this project will develop a template for other similar efforts throughout Marin County.

A 12-13-member steering committee has been formed that is comprised of community members, County of Marin (Department of Public Works) staff and BCDC staff. County/BCDC staff provide the scientific data and projections, mapping, and strategies; these are shared with the steering committee for comment and feedback. Ultimately, the steering committee will identify and evaluate possible adaptation strategies that take into account social, economic, environmental, jurisdictional, recreational and health impacts.2

E. Gallinas Creek Watershed Program As discussed in Section II (Background) above, in 2008, the County of Marin initiated the Marin County Watershed Program, which presents a 10-year work plan for five of Marin’s developed watersheds. One of the projects is the Gallinas Watershed Program, which is within the San Rafael planning area. The purpose of this project is to identify and describe the recommended watershed improvement measures and provide details on project feasibility, sequencing, preliminary costs and funding strategies. It is anticipated that some type of revenue measure (e.g., bond measure, assessment districts) will be required to implement the recommended measures.

By way of background, the 5.6-square-mile Gallinas Creek watershed has two main drainage basins. The main stream to the north is the larger of the two drainages and flows from the ridgeline down through the Santa Margarita Valley and the community of Terra Linda to its confluence with the South Fork Gallinas Creek near McInnis Park. South Fork Gallinas Creek is fed by several small tributaries that originate in the San Rafael Hills and San Pedro Ridge and flow through the communities of San Rafael Meadows, Los Ranchitos and Santa Venetia. Over the years of development in the greater valley, much of the open drainage ways west of US101 were filled or re-channeled into concrete structures. Sections of this basin are served by County Flood Zone #6 (San Rafael Meadows) and County Flood Zone #7 (Santa Venetia). Further, a Community Service Area (CSA#6) has been formed in the Santa Venetia area that covers the maintenance dredging of the channel for navigability.

The Gallinas Watershed Program will utilize a collaborative, iterative process to develop an integrated flood protection and habitat restoration program. The watershed program will build upon existing studies and develop new analytical tools to evaluate and quantify the extent of flooding and to evaluate the range of proposed solutions. This process will be summarized in a final report. The final report will also include recommendations on how to leverage local funds to attract State and Federal grant funds. The final report will provide an assessment of and describe the type of local revenue measures that could support project implementation. The current products of the work program that are underway are:

 McInnis Marsh Restoration Study- this study will study the potential for tidal restoration of the diked marshlands outboard of McInnis Park and contiguous uplands

 Las Gallinas Sediment Studies- this study will address sediment characteristics and build-up along Gallinas Creek

 Santa Venetia Storm Drain Analysis- this analysis consider options for storm drainage improvements in the Santa Venetia neighborhood

2 Meeting with Marin Co Supervisor Sears, Supervisor Aides Maureen Parton and Leslie Alden; December 18, 2013

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 Levee Evaluation- the evaluation will consider levee options along Gallinas Creek. A community meeting is scheduled in January 2014 to present the results of a levee evaluation conducted by the County and the US Army Corps of Engineers.

The watershed approach considers the development of multi-benefit projects as a way to ensure that project priorities are eligible for the broadest range of funding at the State and Federal levels. The above studies will have both direct and indirect benefits to studying and planning for sea level rise.

Recently, the City of San Rafael contributed $60,000 (includes $20,000 from the San Rafael Airport property owner) to the Gallinas Watershed Program. This contribution can be spent on studies. The City will be working with County staff to decide where this contribution might be best directed.3

F. BCDC Pilot Project for Priority Development Areas (PDA) In coordination with ABAG, BCDC has embarked on a pilot project that will involve assessing vulnerability in a selected group of Bay Area Priority Development Areas (PDA) that are in low-lying areas and close to shorelines. The Downtown San Rafael PDA is one of the areas selected for this pilot project for several reasons: 1) it is relatively close to the Bay shoreline and has an immediate linkage to the San Rafael Canal; 2) is developed at low elevations with much of the area within the FEMA 100-year flood hazard zone; and 3) is an area that would be greatly impacted by predicted rises in sea level.

Right now, little is known about how this program will be developed, except that it will follow the BCDC ART template. The pilot program will not only will not only establish a base for the scope of a vulnerability assessment but will identify adaptive strategies that are will likely be suitable for the unique characteristics and circumstances found in these PDAs. BCDC staff has commissioned a consultant in this effort and work is expected to be underway in early 2014.

VI. ASSESSING LOCAL CONDITIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES

A. Identifying San Rafael’s Levees and Shorelines San Rafael has a diversity of shoreline and bayfront conditions. Conditions range from flat shorelines that are developed with levees and sea walls to steep uplands that drop to tidelands. Further, there are low- lying areas of the City that are developed, but are vulnerable to sea level rise because they were formerly tidelands or tidal marsh. A broad, general review of the San Rafael bay front and shoreline conditions has been completed; the information in this paper is not based on technical engineering studies of the levees or shorelines. Rather, the following five areas of San Rafael have been identified based on general, long-term knowledge of the community and past history of flooding, inundation and infrastructure failure during past storm events and high tides:

Section A Downtown - San Rafael Creek; general area is filled and developed at low elevations

Section B Inner Canal- San Rafael Creek, general area around creek is filled and developed at low elevations

Section C East San Rafael Shoreline; general area bordering the San Rafael Bay is filled and developed at low elevations; some shoreline levee protection

Section D San Pedro Peninsula; varying shoreline conditions ranging from filled lands developed at low elevations to steep uplands transitioning to tidelands; some levee and sea wall protection

3 Meeting with Marin County Department of Public Works; December 16, 2013

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Section E Gallinas Creek Basin; general area around Gallinas Creek (two forks) including filled and developed low-lying areas (e.g., Santa Venetia, Marin Lagoon, Contempo Marin); limited levee protection

See Appendix A for a list of sites and properties that have been identified for each of the five areas.

B. Identifying Adaptation Strategies Potentially Suitable for San Rafael Based on the research summarized in this paper, there are a number of adaptation strategies that may be suitable for study by San Rafael. The following strategies should be considered and studied in conjunction with the preparation of a vulnerability assessment:

1. Develop and adopt an “overlay zone” in areas prone to potential sea level rise. Adopting an overlay zone (e.g., County of Marin Baylands Corridor designation), provides a nexus to require, as part of individual site review for development: a) a study of sea level rise impacts to the site and project; and b) the ability to impose adaptive measures on the site (e.g., non-development areas, setbacks, sea walls).

2. “Hold-the-line” levee/sea wall enforcement. Some areas of the San Rafael shoreline that are developed with levees may be suitable for raising or structural enhancement to adapt to rising tides. Possible areas suitable for this strategy are Spinnaker Point and the Peacock Gap/Glenwood shorelines.

3. Retreat and conversion of undeveloped upland and diked baylands to tidal marsh. This strategy may be suitable for some areas in San Rafael. There are a number of sites that border the Bay and creeks that should be studied (e.g., Canalways, Canal-side area of Pickleweed Park, McInnis Park/San Rafael Airport.

4. “Horizontal Levee” that converts mudflats to marsh plain. The horizontal levee concept has been successfully studied in other areas of the Bay. The outboard tidelands in southeast San Rafael may have the characteristics and conditions suitable for this strategy.

5. “Barrier” or controlled/locked gate system. This type of improvement is effective in controlling tide levels along channels but is very costly to install and maintain. Nonetheless, the feasibility of a gate system at the mouth of the San Rafael Creek/Canal should be studied.

6. Continued dredging of San Rafael Creek/Canal for basin drainage. While it may not be a tool for combatting sea level rise, maintaining the Canal as a navigable channel will help the flow of runoff from upstream. Depending upon the level of contamination, the dredged spoils may be locally useful for other adaptive strategies (e.g., raising or reinforcing levees).

C. Identifying Potential Opportunity Areas for Adaptation Given the diversity of shoreline and bayfront conditions, there are a number of potential “opportunity areas” within San Rafael that should be studied to determine their suitability for successful mid-term and long-term employment of adaptive strategies .Please see Appendix B of this paper, which identifies a number of potential sites and areas from the Gallinas Basin in North San Rafael to the Southeast San Rafael shoreline. For each potential site, information has been provided on property ownership (e.g., private vs. public ownership), property zoning, site/area characteristics and conditions/constraints. Further, for each sites/area, a potential adaptation measure has been identified.

Please note that the suggested adaptation strategies presented in Appendix B are not based on any technical or quantitative study. These strategies are not presented as solutions; these are to serve as a starting point for discussion to determine if they are worthy for review and further study. A more detailed study and analysis of the more broad conditions of the San Rafael shoreline and the individual site/areas

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may conclude that suggested strategies in Appendix B may provide to be infeasible or inappropriate. Nonetheless, the suggestions are intended to serve as a starting point for future study and more importantly, to document opportunity areas.

VII. CHALLENGES

Moving forward, there will be a number of challenges that need to be acknowledged and considered before preparing a vulnerability assessment. The following is a brief discussion of the challenges:

1. Assessment and long-term strategy planning for sea level adaptation cannot be done in isolation or be “piecemeal” in its approach. There are no jurisdictional boundaries to the impacts of or planning for sea level rise along the the Marin Bay shores and beyond.

2. Assessment and planning requires the involvement of multiple agencies. Given the complexity of this issue assesing and planning requires the participation, coordination and resources of a number of agencies. In addition to the City of San Rafael, other participating agencies would include, among others, County of Marin, BCDC, Regional Water Quality Control Board, FEMA, and US Army Corps of Engineers.

3. The number of stakeholders involved and effected is substantial. In the Central San Rafael Basin alone, there are thousands of property owners and business owners that are impacted by projected sea level rise, as well as the cost and implications of potential adaptation solutions. Public outreach and participation is critical.

4. Information on sea level rise continues to evolve which could impact impact long-range planning. For example, in the short-term, the long-awaited update of the FEMA FIRM maps will present new flood zone mapping information that may have broader area impacts and will likely result in higher insurance costs to effected property owners.

5. San Rafael has diverse shoreline and levee conditions that vary by neighborhood and area. So, a “one-size-fits-all” approach to long-term adaptation strategies is impossible. While an areawide assessment is critical, the assessment must carefully look at and consider localized conditions and solutions.

6. City resources and funding are limited. At this time, there are no Public Works Department staff resources, nor is there an earmarked City budget to intiate the preparation of a vulnverability assessment.

7. Long-term adaptation strategies will require trade-offs. Some of the adaptation strategies would have environmental implications that may be at-odds with current policies and priorities. For example, the retreat strategy that converts upland or seasonal marsh to tidal marsh could significantly impact private property rights, private view loss, and bioloogical resources. Assessing the trade-offs will require the cooperation of and coordination with the appropriate stakeholders.

8. Long-term adaptation strategies will be costly. The cost of strategies such as “barriers” could be staggering. Even the raising of an earthen levee is extremely costly unless fill material is locally available. Planning the appropriate strategy for an area will need to consider cost in addition to effectiveness. While federal, state and other agency sources may be available to partially fund these strategies, the formation of assessment districts or other taxing measure will likely be necessary.

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VIII. NEXT STEPS

The following is a list of suggested tasks and actions to consider and pursue: 1. Prioritize Preparation of a Vulnerability Assessment  Investigate and determine Public Works Department staff resources needed to pursue next steps

2. Investigate and Pursue Funding Sources for Staffing, Studies and Adaptation  Monitor and pursue funding opportunities such as federal grants, OBAG grants

3. Engage in Countywide and Regional Efforts  Identify County, state, and regional agencies with Bay and shoreline oversight; participate in coordinating a collective effort, partnership and/or assistance in preparation of a vulnerability assessment

 Consider re-joining the North Bay Watershed Association as it provides a good source for shared information and studies, as well as funding opportunities

4. Identify Stakeholders and Initiate Outreach  Utilize Community Engagement Strategy in identifying stakeholders

 Initiate early outreach

5. Continue to Monitor and Participate in Studies and Efforts Underway  Monitor updates to FEMA FIRM Maps; document changes as needed

 Work with and participate in County of Marin Public Works Department Gallinas Creek Watershed Project

 Monitor and participate in BCDC Pilot Project for Priority Development Areas (PDA)

6. Complete Tasks to Stay Current on Data and to be Eligible for Funding Opportunities  Update GIS (Map Guide) maps as necessary to include new data as it becomes available (e.g., update of FEMA FIRM maps, mapping areas of vulnerability, mapping inventory of levees and shorelines); utilize GIS as a tool for tracking

 Review and commission update to City of San Rafael Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan

 Complete an inventory of levees and shorelines

 Raise FEMA elevation requirement for construction

7. Pursue Preparation of a Vulnerability Assessment  Assessment should include Identify long-term adaptation strategies

 Assessment should identify tools for planning and localized implementation including adoption of a Bayfront Corridor zoning overlay or land use designation, continued Canal dredging

8. Commit to Long-Term Implementation and Programming  Identify tools for funding strategy implementation (e.g., including assessment districts or other taxing measures)

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