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Deep South Economic Mobility Forecast February 24, 2021
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Liquid Asset Poverty Rates Highest, Gaps Wider Among Households of Color 100%
80% 73% 70% 72% 72% 72% 67% 68% 66% 60% 58% 58% 58%
45% 39% 42% 39% 40% 32%
29% Liquid Asset Poverty Rate Poverty Liquid Asset 20%
0% Alabama* Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee United States Black Latino White
Source: Prosperity Now Scorecard, Liquid Asset Poverty, 2019. *Liquid Asset Poverty rates for Latino households in Alabama are not available.
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Uneven Unemployment, Before and During COVID-19
2020
2019
Great Recession Job Losses Dec. 2007 – Jun. 2009: 577,100 NA COVID-19 Unemployment Claims Mar. 15, 2020 – Jan, 30 2021 4.1 million
Source: Hope Policy Institute analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Current Population Survey accessed at https://www.bls.gov/lau/ex14tables.htm.
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Recovery from Great Recession Job Loss in the Deep South
U.S. recovered MayU.S. 2014 recovered May 2014
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Small Business Job Growth Vital to a Healthy Economy
Nationally, change in number of jobs and firms, by number of employees, from March 30, 2019 to March 30, 2020
Smallest Businesses Largest Businesses (1 to 19 employees) (1,000+ employees)
Change in Jobs (95,000) 662,000
Change in Firms (9,200) 0
Number of Firms 4,558,000 12 By End of Q1 2020
Source: Hope Policy Institute Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Distribution of private sector firms by size class: 1993/Q1 through 2020/Q1, not seasonally adjusted” and “Distribution of private sector employment by firm size class: 1993/Q1 through 2020/Q1, not seasonally adjusted.”
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Debt Burden Threatens Economic Mobility in the Deep South
*Assumes a small business loan of $100,000
This is addition to rent and utility debts that are stacking up for individuals and small business owners due to COVID-19.
Source: Hope Policy Institute analysis of various sources.
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Deep South Black Businesses More Vulnerable Pre-Pandemic
Source: Hope Policy Institute and 60 Decibels. (2020). “ The PPP Experience For Small Business Owners: Insights from 240 HOPE Credit Union Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Loan Recipients.”
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee 96% of Black and Latino Owned Business in the Deep South are Non-Employer Firms
100%
80% 96% 82% 84% 60%
40%
20%
Percent of Firms without employees without Firms of Percent N = 415,115 N = 1,462,494 N = 1,968,286 0% Black/Hispanic White All Race
Source: Hope Policy Institute Analysis of Statistics for Non-employer Firms by Industry, Sex, Ethnicity, Race, and Veteran Status for the U.S., States, and Metro Areas: 2017, Annual Business Survey Program.
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Minority Businesses are Economic Drivers in the Deep South, yet Disparities Persist
Percent of Total Non-Employer Firms Percent of Revenue Generated
17% 26%
Minority White
74% 83%
N = 1,644,000 N = $ 71.7 Billion
Source: Hope Policy Institute analysis of Statistics for Non-employer Firms by Industry, Sex, Ethnicity, Race, and Veteran Status for the U.S., States, and Metro Areas: 2017, Annual Business Survey Program.
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Tennessee: Small Business Relief Program Bypasses Minority Businesses Distribution of CARES Act Funds by Owners’ Race
Minority-Owned Businesses ($17 million)
White-Owned Businesses ($168 million)
Source: Tennessee Financial Stimulus and Accountability Group, September 30, 2020.
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee PPP Loans < $150,000 in Mississippi and Louisiana by Lender Type
Source: Hope Policy Institute analysis of data from the Small Business Administration, the Federal Reserve Board, and the CDFI Fund.
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Looking Ahead: Meeting the Needs of Deep South Small Businesses
Source: Hope Policy Institute and 60 Decibels. (2020). “ The PPP Experience For Small Business Owners: Insights from 240 HOPE Credit Union Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Loan Recipients.”
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee Contact Information
Diane Standaert Director, Hope Policy Institute [email protected]
Kiyadh Burt Policy Analyst, Hope Policy Institute [email protected]
Brighter Futures Begin with HOPE. Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee