ITRC A Fast Track Analysis of strategies for infrastructure provision in Great Britain Technical report ITRC ISBN 978 1 874370 49 9 This report should be referenced as: Hall, J.W., Henriques, J.J., Hickford, A.J. & Nicholls, R.J. (eds) 2012. A Fast Track Analysis of strategies for infrastructure provision in Great Britain: Technical report. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, OUCE, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY Tel: +44 (0)1865 275848 Fax: +44 (0)1865 275850 E: [email protected] www.itrc.org.uk Strategies for National Infrastructure provision in Great Britain Cycle One of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s analysis of long term dynamics of interdependent infrastructure systems – the Fast Track Analysis LEAD AUTHORS • Prof. Jim Hall, University of Oxford • Dr Justin Henriques, University of Oxford • Adrian Hickford, University of Southampton • Prof. Robert Nicholls, University of Southampton AUTHORS • Simon Abele, University of Oxford • Dr Pranab Baruah, University of Oxford • Prof. Mark Birkin, University of Leeds • Dr Modassar Chaudry, Cardiff University • Prof. Tom Curtis, Newcastle University • Dr Nick Eyre, University of Oxford • Prof. Cliff Jones, Newcastle University • Prof. Chris Kilsby, Newcastle University • Alex Leathard, Newcastle University • Alexander Lorenz, University of Oxford • Dr Nicolas Malleson, University of Leeds • Fraser McLeod, University of Southampton • Prof. William Powrie, University of Southampton • Prof. John Preston, University of Southampton • Neha Rai, University of Sussex • Dr Anne Stringfellow, University of Southampton • Chris Thoung, Cambridge Econometrics • Prof. Pete Tyler, University of Cambridge • Roberta Velykiene, Newcastle University • Geoff Watson, University of Southampton • Prof. Jim Watson, University of Sussex 1 STRATEGIES FOR NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION IN GREAT BRITAIN The ITRC is a consortium of the following universities: • Cardiff University • University of Leeds • University of Southampton • Newcastle University • University of Oxford • University of Sussex • University of Cambridge ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The ITRC is supported by the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council under grant EP/101344X/1 and by the following organisations: • AEA Technology • Institution of Engineering and • Arup Technology • Association of North East Councils • Institution of Mechanical Engineers • Atkins • JBA Consulting • BAM Nuttall • Local Government Association • Black and Veatch • Met Office • BP International • Mott MacDonald • BT • MWH • CABE • National Grid • Cabinet Office • Network Rail • Costain • Northumbrian Water • Department for Environment, Food • Ordnance Survey and Rural Affairs • Parsons Brinckerhoff • Department for Transport • Royal Haskoning • Department of Communities and • Scottish and Southern Energy Local Government • Swanbarton • Department of Energy and Climate • Town and Country Planning Change Association • Environment Agency • Transport Scotland • E.On Engineering • UK Water Industry Research • Halcrow • United Utilities • Highways Agency • Veolia Environmental Services • Infrastructure UK • Willis • Institution of Civil Engineers • Yorkshire Water Contents Executive summary i 1 Towards integrated assessment of National Infrastructure 1 1.1 Challenges facing National Infrastructure provision in the UK 1 1.1.1 Changing demand for infrastructure services from an ageing NI system 1 1.1.2 Interdependence between infrastructure sectors 3 1.1.3 Significant investment needs 4 1.1.4 Attracting investment for infrastructure in a competitive global market 4 1.2 Investment for economic growth 5 1.3 Recent developments in NI provision in the UK 7 1.4 Challenges in long term planning of NI provision 9 1.5 Towards an integrated assessment of National Infrastructure provision 10 1.6 The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium 10 1.7 Structure of this report 12 2 A framework for analysis of change in interdependent infrastructure systems 13 2.1 A service-based approach to infrastructure provision 13 2.2 Infrastructure capacity and demand 15 2.3 The performance of infrastructure services 16 2.4 Drivers of change in NI performance 18 2.5 Fast Track Analysis of primary drivers 19 2.5.1 Population growth scenarios 19 2.5.2 GDP scenarios 22 2.5.3 Energy cost scenarios 24 2.6 Exploration of uncertainties 26 2.6.1 Scenario analysis in the FTA 27 2.7 Strategies for infrastructure provision 27 2.7.1 Application to the FTA 28 2.8 Summary 29 3 Governance of infrastructure provision 31 3.1 Evolution of UK National Infrastructure governance 32 3.2 Current governance arrangements for National Infrastructure provision 33 3.2.1 Regulation and innovation 36 3.2.2 The role of the European Union 37 3.3 The role of government in infrastructure provision 40 3.4 Infrastructure interdependencies and governance 41 3.4.1 Water and energy 42 3.4.2 The Low Carbon Network Fund 43 3.5 Conclusions 44 STRATEGIES FOR NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION IN GREAT BRITAIN 4 Status and trends in UK National Infrastructure 47 4.1 Energy 47 4.1.1 The infrastructure system 47 4.1.2 Role of interdependence 52 4.1.3 Key issues 54 4.1.4 Conclusion 58 4.2 Transport 58 4.2.1 The infrastructure system 58 4.2.2 Role of interdependence 66 4.2.3 Key issues 66 4.3 Water supply 69 4.3.1 The infrastructure system 70 4.3.2 Role of interdependence 76 4.3.3 Key issues 77 4.4 Wastewater 82 4.4.1 The infrastructure system 82 4.4.2 Role of interdependence 86 4.5 Solid waste 88 4.5.1 The infrastructure system 89 4.5.2 Role of interdependence 91 4.5.3 Key issues 93 4.6 ICT 98 4.6.1 The infrastructure system 98 4.6.2 Key issues 104 5 An analysis of long term strategies for National Infrastructure 109 5.1 Introduction to the FTA transition strategies 109 5.1.1 Capacity-Intensive (CI) transition strategy 110 5.1.2 Decentralisation (DC) transition strategy 110 5.1.3 Capacity-Constrained (CC) transition strategy 110 5.1.4 Exploration of key questions 110 5.1.5 Potential future NI investment levels 111 5.2 Energy 113 5.2.1 Assessment methodology 113 5.2.2 Description of transition strategies 114 5.2.3 Evolution of the transition strategies’ supply options 119 5.2.5 Performance evaluation 123 5.2.6 Conclusions 126 5.3 Transport 127 5.3.1 Assessment methodology 127 5.3.2 Analysis of future demand in the FTA scenarios 131 5.3.3 Description and performance evaluation of transition strategies 135 5.4 Water 147 5.4.1 Assessment methodology 147 5.4.2 Description of transition strategies 149 5.4.3 Evaluation of the transition strategies 154 5.5 Wastewater 157 5.5.1 Assessment methodology 158 5.5.4 Conclusions 166 5.6 Solid waste 167 5.6.1 Assessment methodology 167 5.6.2 Analysis of future demand in the FTA scenarios 168 5.6.3 Description of transition strategies 171 5.6.4 Conclusions 173 STRATEGIES FOR NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION IN GREAT BRITAIN 5.7 ICT 181 5.7.1 Assessment methodology 182 5.7.2 Demand futures under scenarios 182 5.7.3 Description of transition strategies for ICT 184 5.8 Governance implications for the transition strategies 185 5.8.1 Capacity-Intensive transition strategy 185 5.8.2 Decentralisation transition strategy 188 5.8.3 Capacity-Constrained transition strategy 190 5.8.4 Compatibility of current arrangements 193 5.9 Cross-sectoral performance analysis of strategies 197 6 Taking forward the ITRC’s research programme 199 6.1 Contributions of the FTA 200 6.2 Direction of future research 200 6.2.2 Resiliency and risk evaluation 205 6.2.3 Infrastructure as a complex adaptive systemy 206 6.2.4 Developing enabling tools 206 6.3 Timescale for delivery 207 References 209 Glossary 222 Executive summary A GLOBAL PRIORITY National Infrastructure (NI) provides the foundation for economic productivity and human wellbeing, and is the cornerstone of modern industrialised society. It shapes many of the interactions between human civilisation and the natural environment. However, in the UK and other advanced economies, NI faces serious challenges of: • Growing demand for infrastructure services from a modern economy and growing and ageing population; • Significant investment requirements so that an ageing infrastructure system can meet this demand and provide reliable, cost-effective and high quality services; • Increasing complexity and interdependence of infrastructure networks. A growing stock of infrastructure helps to promote economic growth by increasing productivity, participation in the economy and aggregate demand. Infrastructure investment is also necessary to reduce the likelihood and consequences of system failure and to ensure a healthy environment and a stable climate. The lead-time and long lifetime of major infrastructure means that a long term view is essential. Yet a long term strategic approach is challenged by the associated uncertainties, be they technical, environmental, political or financial. Interdependence between infrastructure sectors add to the complexity and uncertainty in the strategic planning of NI. In the 2011 National Infrastructure Plan (NIP),1 the UK government has identified a strategy for meeting infrastructure needs. Metrics for monitoring UK infrastructure performance and strategic priorities for the future are set out in the NIP. The NIP underlines the importance of taking a long term and cross-sectoral view of infrastructure provision. 1 HM Treasury and Infrastructure UK (2011). National Infrastructure Plan 2011. London, UK: HM Treasury. i STRATEGIES FOR NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION IN GREAT BRITAIN: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE UK INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONS RESEARCH CONSORTIUM The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) has been funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of NI. The research programme deals with energy, transport, water, waste and ICT systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies.